In November 2024, the Erucic Acid market saw a slight dip in prices, primarily driven by a reduction in both demand and consumption across the European region. This decrease in market activity was compounded by a decline in production costs, which further applied downward pressure on Erucic Acid prices.

The demand for Erucic Acid fell slightly from the cosmetics manufacturers. Advancements in safety testing within the European cosmetics sector, particularly through the Next Generation Risk Assessment (NGRA) framework, have impacted the demand for ingredients like Erucic Acid. As the industry increasingly prioritized ethical and reliable safety assessments, including Erucic Acid, which raised concerns about toxicity and safety, came under closer scrutiny. With new in vitro and computational models providing more precise evaluations, the demand for Erucic Acid in cosmetics declined, especially as safer alternatives were identified. The industry's shift toward using well-assessed, non-toxic ingredients in response to evolving safety protocols has reduced the use of high-erucic acid oils and promoted the development of more skin-friendly alternatives in cosmetic formulations.

At the same time, in October, EU Moselle Rapeseed prices experienced a notable decline, dropping to 533 USD/tonne, reflecting a shift in market dynamics. During the same period, EU oilseed crushing volumes increased by an average of 11% month-on-month, indicating a significant rise in processing activity. This surge in crushing led to higher Rapeseed Oil production as the EU boosted its oilseed output to meet the growing demand for biofuels and edible oils. However, the increase in processing volumes and oil production put downward pressure on the cost support for Erucic Acid, negatively affecting its production costs. These fluctuations in prices and production underscore broader trends in the European oilseed market, as it adjusts to shifting demands for renewable energy and food ingredients.

According to the ChemAnalyst data sources, the Erucic Acid FD Hamburg prices hovered at USD 4800/MT, post witnessing a slight decrease of 0.2% in the previous month’s quotations.

As per the estimation, the Erucic Acid price trend would shift and experience upward pressure in the European region towards the end of the year. Rapeseed production is projected to decline by 87/MT, marking a 3.6% year-on-year decrease in the 2024-25 outlook, as per the latest report from the International Grains Council. This reduced supply, coupled with the stressed availability of raw material rapeseed, could lead to tightening of the market. At the same time, demand may rise from the cosmetics sector, further contributing to price increases. Operational costs are also likely to increase due to the anticipated rise in energy prices during winter months. Additionally, stockpiling practices by international buyers ahead of the peak winter season may exacerbate supply constraints. As a result, demand for Erucic Acid could remain firm, but supply rates may face challenges, particularly during the winter peak.