In November 2022, the US’s automotive sector witnessed a manufacturing contraction due to a reduction in car production rates compared to October 2022. It negatively impacted the demand for flexible foam from the manufacturing sector. It caused a decline in orders for Polyurethane and its key components, i.e., Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI), Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate, and Polyol.

Simultaneously the US’s manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) recorded below 50 in November 2022, indicating a manufacturing contraction during the month. As per the data, TDI prices declined by 3.4% during November 2022. TDI T80 grade costs settled at USD 3120/MT because of a reduction in product offtakes from domestic downstream industries. Additionally, the disruption in supply chain activities amid a decrease in Mississippi river water levels affected the shipping of TDI and raised the domestic inventory levels.

At the same time, the upstream cost pressure on the TDI key feedstock Propylene prices decreased amid improved availability to the downstream industries. The reason is that Spot Crude oil prices declined slightly from October to November, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) December report. Conclusively, Spot Crude oil prices settled at USD 91 per barrel in November. The rise in Covid cases in China and related lockdown resulted in a decrease in trade and logistic activities, negatively impacting the oil demand in the country. Oil imports contracted from China, and an increase in domestic oil inventory levels caused a reduction in WTI Crude oil prices during November. Because of this, the production rates of TDI remained firm and caused a rise in domestic inventory levels of the product.

According to ChemAnalyst, “price of TDI will increase in the upcoming months due to the rise in the upstream costs. Upstream crude oil prices likely to rise amid consistent demand during winter and decreased distillation rates by the domestic downstream industries amid freezing temperatures.”