For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) market saw a 4% price decrease compared to the previous quarter. This decline was mainly due to weak demand for Polyurethane materials in the construction sector and moderate supply chain disruptions. While the automotive sector boosted demand with higher vehicle sales, the construction sector struggled with sluggish growth, high interest rates, and labor/material shortages. The furniture industry also faced reduced demand, affecting the Polyurethane sector.
Feedstock Toluene costs remained moderate, but a decline in crude oil prices in December pressured production costs. Although TDI production remained stable, export rates, especially to Europe and Australia, fell due to weaker global demand and customer hesitation on new projects.
In the U.S., TDI's demand to manufacture PU materials stayed steady in the automotive sector, driven by strong vehicle sales. However, the paints and coatings industry saw restructuring efforts that reduced TDI consumption. As a result, there was a soft demand in construction, reduced export orders, and fluctuating prices led to a 4% decrease in TDI prices for the quarter.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) market saw a 2% price decrease compared to the previous quarter. This drop was due to moderate demand from sectors like construction and automotive, alongside supply chain disruptions caused by typhoons and logistical issues. TDI production rates remained stable, supported by steady feedstock availability, but rising crude oil prices increased production costs. The demand for PU products from the automotive sector stayed strong, driven by growth in new car registrations, particularly in China. However, weaker demand from the construction sector, due to subdued activity and a slowdown in real estate, reduced TDI consumption. China's exports grew slightly, though at a slower pace, hindered by global economic factors and U.S. tariffs. Despite consistent TDI production, rising production costs placed downward pressure on prices. While the paints and coatings market and the recovering construction sector supported some demand, overall market dynamics led to a 2% decrease in TDI prices for the final quarter of 2024.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) market in Europe experienced a 6% decrease in prices compared to the previous quarter. This decline was primarily driven by weak demand in the construction sector, which continued to struggle with economic and political uncertainties, as well as rising inflation. Although the automotive sector saw some demand growth, it wasn’t enough to offset the overall market slowdown. TDI production remained stable, supported by moderate feedstock availability, but production costs rose due to higher crude oil prices and logistical disruptions at key European ports. Exports continued to decline, marking the eighth consecutive month of decreases, while imports saw a slight increase. Despite some resilience in real estate and automotive sales, particularly in major markets like Germany and France, the overall market conditions remained subdued. The combined effect of weak demand in key sectors and ongoing supply chain challenges, including disruptions at ports, contributed to the 6% drop in TDI prices during the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Toluene Diisocyanate price trend oscillated in the North American region, showcasing moderate sentiments in the market. Initially, at the beginning of the quarter, TDI prices decreased amid reduced demand for TDI from PU segment amid sluggish consumption of Polyurethane materials in the construction and manufacturing sectors.
In the middle of the third quarter, TDI production rates were hampered because of the stressed availability of feedstocks in the region. The offtakes were moderate, and market players raised their quotations. Consequently, the second half of the quarter witnessed a 2% price increment compared to the first half, underlining a gradual price uptick.
Towards the end of Q3, improved availability of Crude Oil in the international market and increased refinery operations resulted in firm availability of feedstocks and negatively impacted the TDI production costs. At the same time, the impact of Hurricane Helene resulted in reduced consumption from downstream industries and an increase in domestic stockpiles due to affected supply chain activities. The market players negatively revised their quotations and overall, the TDI prices witnessed a 7% decline in Q3 2024 from the previous quarter. Conclusively, the quarter-ending price for Toluene Diisocyanate (T80) FOB Texas stood at USD 2700/MT.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) market in the APAC region has been characterized by a fluctuating pricing environment. The quarter has witnessed significant influences from several factors such as increased feedstock Toluene costs due to fluctuating crude oil prices, moderate demand from downstream industries, and improved manufacturing activities. The market's dynamics were further complicated by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil imports, leading to variable feedstock availability. During the mid-quarter, the looming concerns about a recession in the US affected the international crude oil market and refinery operation. It stressed the feedstock Toluene supplies and TDI production rates. TDI prices fluctuated and rose marginally, and the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a modest 2% increase, highlighting slight recovery efforts. Towards the end of the quarter, the increased availability of feedstock Toluene supplies, driven by improved refinery operations and Crude Oil availability amid a resumption of Crude Oil supply from Libya in September 2024, negatively impacted the production costs. Simultaneously, offtakes for moderately low from the PU segment during the period. Conclusively, from the previous quarter in 2024, prices fell by 5%, indicating a downward trend, and Toluene Diisocyanate (T80) FOB Osaka prices settled at USD 1850/MT at the end of quarter 3 of 2024.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2024, the European Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) market experienced a predominantly negative pricing environment, and the price trend shifted its movement due to imbalanced demand-supply dynamics. Throughout the quarter, the sluggish demand from the polyurethane sector, particularly within construction, exerted downward pressure on prices. The Eurozone's construction sector continued its downturn, significantly impacting TDI consumption. Additionally, the manufacturing sector faced challenges, with the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI indicating declining new orders and rising costs, further dampening demand. Supply-side dynamics also played a role, as supply availability improved post-summer holidays, yet demand failed to match this increase, exacerbating inventory levels. From the mid-quarter, the demand-supply imbalances and external economic pressures caused a marginal incline in TDI prices. Seasonality played a role as summer holidays resulted in labor shortages and reduced manufacturing rates, impacting supply chains. Consequently, the first and second half of the quarter saw a 1% price comparison difference, indicative of persistent pricing challenges. The quarter concluded with a Toluene Diisocyanate (T80) FD Hamburg price at USD 2470/MT in Germany, after an overall 5% drop from the last quarter's prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) market experienced a shift in product prices. Initially, the price trend was firm, and prices rose due to increased production costs. As per EQT, the energy sector witnessed escalations in costs due to geopolitical tensions and positive economic data. Meanwhile, the market showcased mixed demand for TDI from the Polyurethane segment.
In the mid-quarter, the supply side remained relatively stable, with manufacturers maintaining consistent operating rates; however, the ample availability of stocks in the market due to lower offtakes added strain on pricing dynamics. Consequently, prices started declining amid improvements in feedstock availability and product production rates after the ease of geopolitical tensions in the Middle Eastern region. At the same time, the easing of cost support from feedstock Toluene, influenced by a consistent fall in upstream crude oil prices, further compounded the bearish sentiment.
Conclusively, the quarter-ending price for TDI (T80) DEL Louisiana stood at USD 2670/MT, cementing the overall negative pricing environment. The sentiment towards the end of Q2 2024 was decidedly bearish, driven by sluggish demand, ample supply, and declining feedstock costs, creating a challenging landscape for market participants. Additionally, prices recorded an 11% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024, underscoring the persistent weak demand and over-supplied market conditions. The first half of the quarter saw prices drop by 5% compared to the second half, further highlighting the declining trend.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has exhibited a clear downward trajectory for Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) prices across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. The market experienced a significant decline influenced primarily by subdued demand from the Polyurethane segment, notably due to a decrease in automotive and construction activities. This period also saw fluctuations in upstream Crude Oil prices, leading to inconsistent cost support from feedstock Toluene, exacerbating the pricing pressure on TDI. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties induced caution among buyers, resulting in lower trading volumes and heightened inventory levels. The collective impact of these factors has fostered a negative pricing sentiment throughout the quarter. The correlation in price changes aligns with macroeconomic indicators, including reduced manufacturing activities and a dip in consumer spending. Compared to the same quarter last year, TDI prices in Japan have plummeted by 12%, underscoring a significant year-over-year decline. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices have further decreased by 3%, indicating a persistent downward trend. When comparing the first half to the second half of the quarter, prices dropped by 4%, reinforcing the continuous negative sentiment. Conclusively, the latest quarter-ending price for Toluene Diisocyanate (T80) FOB Osaka stands at USD 1930/MT. This pronounced decrease reflects an overall negative pricing environment, driven primarily by diminished demand and fluctuating upstream cost dynamics, indicating a challenging period for TDI producers and suppliers in the region.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the price trend of Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) in Europe fluctuated, with shifting movements towards the end of the quarter. Initially, prices were stable, with a slight increase due to reduced production rates caused by limited feedstock supplies. However, demand from the Polyurethane segment remained weak. Mid-quarter, demand for TDI from this segment stabilized. The housing sector continued to perform poorly, although the rate of decline slowed to its lowest in eight months. Commercial building projects saw a significant and consistent drop from the previous month, while civil engineering faced a deepening decline. The construction sector's challenges were exacerbated by a lack of new projects. The contraction in new orders intensified for the first time in seven months, signaling ongoing deterioration in demand conditions. Cost support from feedstock Toluene remained relatively stable, but fluctuations were insufficient to offset the overall trend of declining demand. By the end of Q2, the TDI market experienced substantial price reductions due to a continued drop in consumption within the Polyurethane sector, particularly influenced by sluggish activity in the construction and automotive industries. Comparing quarter-on-quarter movements for 2024, prices decreased modestly by 5%, reflecting a persistent bearish trend, albeit at a slightly slower pace than the previous quarter. The quarter concluded with TDI prices at USD 2530/MT FD Hamburg in Germany, indicating a negative market sentiment at the end of the period.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) price trend remains strong in the North American market during the first quarter of 2024. At the beginning of the quarter, the demand for TDI was moderately low during the New Year holidays and firm availability of stocks in the market. However, orders increased from the Polyurethane segment after the holidays as the furniture industry saw a surge in sales due to Presidents' Day deals and increased demand for painted furniture and cabinets. Simultaneously, the inquiries surged for energy-efficient products in the refrigeration industries.
During the mid-quarter, feedstock supplies were affected because of the low availability of upstream Crude Oil stocks in the global market due to production cuts by OPEC+ and rising anticipations of further Oil production cuts by OPEC+ after the cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas War. Simultaneously, the energy sector witnessed escalations in energy costs due to geopolitical tensions and positive economic data. The orders for Polyurethane components TDI rose in the Polyurethane segment amid a rise in demand from the construction sector for stocking purposes amid the anticipation of the revival of construction activities in the North American region with the arrival of spring.
Towards the end of the quarter, TDI prices continued to showcase bullish movement in the USA as orders were firm from the buyers due to the steady demand for Polyurethane components in the manufacturing and construction sectors. In the refrigerators and freezers (cold chain) sector, consumers complained of fridges dying young, which caused a surge in demand for TDI for repair and replacement objectives. At the end of the quarter, Toluene Diisocyanate (T80) FOB Texas in the USA witnessed USD 3000/MT.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2024, the Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) prices remain weak in China when compared with the previous quarter. At the beginning of Q1, prices declined due to sluggish demand from PU foam manufacturers attributed to a slowdown in the furniture market amid the escalation in the cost of raw materials such as timber and plywood. Meanwhile, there were disruptions as Mitsui Chemicals and SKC Polyurethanes Inc., in Omuta, Japan, with a TDI production capacity of 10000 TPM, went under force majeure at the beginning of 2024 for ten days due to natural disasters like earthquake and Tsunami and impacted the product availability in the market. Simultaneously, demand improved for stocking purposes before the Lunar New Year holidays in major isocyanate producers in China. During the mid-quarter, South Korean exporters raised the feedstock Toluene costs due to an escalation in demand amid the increase in stock replenishment activities at manufacturing units after the Seollal festival in the country. At the same time, some of the manufacturing units in China went for maintenance shutdown during the Lunar New Year holidays from 2nd February 2024 till 18th February 2024. As a result, TDI prices escalated amid sluggish trading activities and firm demand from buyers like India due to consistent market offtakes during the wedding season and firm consumption of PU materials from the automotive and manufacturing sectors. However, operating rates and trading activities increased after the reopening of the Chinese market. Towards the quarter's end, the air cargo market witnessed increased demand for the third consecutive month in March, fuelled by the expansion of e-commerce and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, impacting air freight rates and product supplies in the international market amidst moderate demand from buyers. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, Toluene Diisocyanate (T80) FOB Osaka quotations in Japan settled at USD 2100/MT.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the European Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) market experienced trends akin to those observed in the North American region. Initially, supply chain delays and extended lead times hindered the availability of supplies within the regional market. However, demand was moderate for Polyurethane (PU) component TDI as orders for PU foam in the manufacturing sector witnessed declines amid an increase in the production costs of wood furniture in the region. It caused a slight reduction in the TDI market prices. During the mid-quarter, the production rates were affected by elevated energy costs and limited access to Toluene feedstock, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions stemming from heightened tensions in the Middle East. The situation was further complicated by a missile attack on an oil tanker off the coast of Yemen, leading to increased shipping traffic along alternative routes. Simultaneously, uncertainties regarding energy security in Europe arose, influenced by a pause in US LNG exports, impacting variable costs across industries. The automotive sector continued to witness heightened demand for lightweight PU materials derived from TDI, attributed to the growing production of electric vehicles. Towards the quarter's conclusion, regional manufacturing units grappled with disruptions to production schedules due to a shortage of skilled labor. It resulted in diminished output rates and escalated operational costs. Additionally, global air cargo demand experienced its third consecutive monthly increase in March, driven by the expanding e-commerce sector and disruptions in shipping routes, particularly in the Red Sea region, leading to fluctuations in air freight rates. Consequently, TDI prices trended upwards again by the quarter's end, with Toluene Diisocyanate (T80) FD Hamburg in Germany assessed at USD 2600/MT.
