China’s Policy Shakeup and US Critical Minerals Act Reshape Copper Rod Market

The global Copper Rod market experienced slight price increase in late November. This was particularly evident in Asian markets, which were affected by a decrease in stock levels, escalating shipping expenses, and alterations in policies influencing the cost of Copper Rod. Concurrently, the United States observed substantial legislative changes, which occurred alongside a period of price stability for Copper Rod.

In China, Copper Rod prices incrementally increased by 0.5%, driven by multiple market factors. Shanghai's inventory levels have been declining, coinciding with modest spot consumption growth. A critical policy change by the State Tax Administration involving the revocation of export tax rebates on semi-finished copper products is expected to escalate business expenses by 13%. Manufacturers are strategically expediting order fulfillments to mitigate potential financial impacts. The market is experiencing distinctive seasonal patterns, with copper stockpiles in SHFE warehouses diminishing during the peak demand period from November to December. This inventory reduction signals heightened regional consumption and reflected the typical consumption cycle in China.

Vietnam's Copper Rod market also witnessed price increases, influenced by a 45% surge in Intra-Asia freight rates during the first half of November. Shipping dynamics, including limited container capacity and upcoming holiday shipments, are contributing to price volatility. Market participants are closely monitoring potential trade policy implications, particularly regarding anticipated actions between the United States and China. Additional market influences include a minor retreat in the US dollar index and increased secondary copper raw material costs due to ongoing supply constraints. These factors are collectively shaping the current Copper Rod market landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities for manufacturers and investors across Asia.

The United States presented a stable Copper Rod market in this period, characterized by balanced supply-demand dynamics. A significant legislative development emerged with the approval of the Critical Mineral Consistency Act of 2024 by the US House of Representatives. This bipartisan legislation expands the definition of critical minerals, notably including copper, electrical steel, silicon, and silicon carbide. The act aims to strengthen domestic supply chains and align mineral classifications between the US Geological Survey and the Department of Energy.

Looking ahead, it is expected that the prices of Copper Rod will recover due to the combined impact of political and economic factors. The unexpected move by Beijing to end export tax rebates, along with the fluctuating US dollar and the surge in demand towards the year's end, is likely to lead to significant shifts in the Copper Rod market. Industries such as electrical, automotive, and construction may need to brace for a potential uptick in costs. ChemAnalyst predicts an increase in prices, indicating a consistent rise in the Copper Rod market shortly.