For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Copper Rod Price Index rose by 2.75% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting constrained import supply.
• The average Copper Rod price for the quarter was approximately USD 17061.33/MT, based on reported trade and inventory reconciliations.
• Elevated inventories temporarily softened the Copper Rod Spot Price despite persistent upstream concentrate shortages affecting mill feedstock availability.
• Analysts' Copper Rod Price Forecast shows modest upside supported by infrastructure orders and limited cathode availability this quarter.
• Rising freight and elevated cathode premiums lifted the Copper Rod Production Cost Trend, pressuring mill margins modestly.
• Strong utility and data-center projects underpin the Copper Rod Demand Outlook, sustaining consumption amid seasonal variability.
• Export demand and distributor restocking supported the Copper Rod Price Index, offsetting short-term substitution risks from aluminum.
• Major rod mills ran near capacity with deferred maintenance, maintaining tight market conditions and validating Copper Rod Spot Price.
Why did the price of Copper Rod change in December 2025 in North America?
• Import restrictions and mine disruptions tightened cathode supply, cutting feedstock availability and supporting rod offers.
• Higher freight and cathode premiums increased production costs, pressuring mill margins and raising domestic offers.
• Robust utility and data-center procurement sustained demand, while inventory rebuilding moderately tempered further price declines.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Copper Rod Price Index rose by 6.52% quarter-over-quarter, due to supply disruptions.
• The average Copper Rod price for the quarter was approximately USD 11854.33/MT, reflecting landed costs.
• Copper Rod Spot Price firmed as mine outages and export diversions tightened available cathode supply.
• Copper Rod Price Forecast points to modest upside near-term supported by infrastructure procurement and stockbuilding.
• Copper Rod Production Cost Trend rose owing to elevated freight charges and cathode feed costs.
• Copper Rod Demand Outlook remains positive as PLN projects and data centres sustain wire demand.
• Copper Rod Price Index showed volatility as domestic inventories tightened and aluminum substitution reduced offtake.
• Operating outages at Manyar and Grasberg amplified import dependence, keeping spot premiums elevated all quarter.
Why did the price of Copper Rod change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Global mine outages and export diversion reduced cathode supply, constraining imports and lifting landed costs.
• PLN transmission and data centre procurement increased demand, significantly supporting domestic offtake by cable makers.
• Rising freight, currency pressure and inventory digestion by producers moderated upside despite tight physical availability.
Europe
• In Germany, the Copper Rod Price Index rose by 5.36% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting stronger EV demand.
• The average Copper Rod price for the quarter was approximately USD 13416.00/MT based on reported deliveries.
• Copper Rod Spot Price firmed December as port congestion and yard utilisation tightened availability.
• Copper Rod Price Index retained bullish bias amid restocking and shrinking exchange inventories in December.
• Copper Rod Production Cost Trend rose as cathode premia firmed while energy costs remained stable.
• Copper Rod Demand Outlook remains supported by EV wiring, grid projects despite softer construction activity.
• Copper Rod Price Forecast expects modest further gains as restocking outweighs ample domestic mill outputs.
• Copper Rod Price Index dynamics balanced by steady mill runs, scrap flows, and year-end restocking.
Why did the price of Copper Rod change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Port congestion and yard utilisation slowed cathode discharge, tightening availability, supporting Copper Rod Price Index.
• Elevated scrap quotations pushed premiums higher, increasing mill feedstock costs despite continued domestic cathode inflows.
• Accelerated EV assembly and grid projects prompted restocking, outweighing softer construction demand and tightening spot.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Copper Rod Price Index rose by 10.57% quarter-over-quarter from tariff-driven pre-buying.
• The average Copper Rod price for the quarter was approximately USD 16605.00/MT per DEL Alabama.
• Copper Rod Spot Price spikes reflected tight domestic availability and Gulf premiums amid delivery delays.
• Copper Rod Price Forecast remains upward near-term as pre-tariff restocking now offsets intermittent cathode arrivals.
• Copper Rod Production Cost Trend climbed as margins widened and import duties raised input costs.
• Copper Rod Demand Outlook stays firm given construction, data centers, and EV wiring sustaining consumption.
• Copper Rod Price Index exhibited volatility as COMEX arbitrage and physical draws created backwardation premiums.
• Off-exchange inventory volumes remained large but unevenly distributed, providing limited immediate relief to regional mills.
Why did the price of Copper Rod change in September 2025 in North America?
• Tariff uncertainty triggered front-loading purchases in August, elevating domestic premiums and compressing mill working inventories.
• September mine disruptions reduced cathode shipments, tightening feedstock supply and straining U.S. rod production schedules.
• Port congestion and railcar shortages delayed imports, raising regional delivery risk, sustaining temporary price support.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Copper Rod Price Index fell by 0.94% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tighter imports and muted demand.
• The average Copper Rod price for the quarter was approximately USD 11128.67/MT, supporting market reference levels.
• Copper Rod Spot Price tightened as LME and SHFE inventories fell, elevating short-term premiums across regional ports.
• Copper Rod Price Forecast indicates range-bound upside risks given persistent cathode shortages and intermittent producer outages.
• Copper Rod Production Cost Trend rose due to higher freight, import parity pressures, and sporadic inland logistics constraints.
• Copper Rod Demand Outlook remained steady from construction and automotive segments, providing consistent baseline consumption support.
• Copper Rod Price Index showed choppy weekly dynamics with alternating twelve-week bearish and recent bullish squeezes.
Why did the price of Copper Rod change in September 2025 in APAC?
• LME and SHFE stock declines reduced available feedstock, squeezing secondary producers and raising spot market premiums.
• Freight cost increases and rerouted cargoes elevated landed import parity, pressuring domestic purchase volumes and margins.
• Steady construction and cable sector demand absorbed limited supply, preventing sharper price declines despite softened buyer appetite.
Europe
• In Germany, the Copper Rod Price Index rose by 4.02% quarter-over-quarter, driven by tightening supply.
• The average Copper Rod price for the quarter was approximately USD 12621.67/MT, per weekly surveys.
• Copper Rod Spot Price strengthened on LME draws and tight physical availability, lifting delivery premiums.
• Copper Rod Price Forecast signals modest upside as export demand and seasonal restocking support orders.
• Copper Rod Production Cost Trend remains stable with balanced energy and feedstock costs tempering pressure.
• Copper Rod Demand Outlook is supported by EV wiring and infrastructure projects, underpinning steady offtake.
• Copper Rod Price Index movements tracked inventory draws and shipments, moderating volatility across German distributors.
• High producer utilisation and added recycling capacity at Aurubis eased procurement pressure and export-driven tightness.
Why did the price of Copper Rod change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Supply improved from domestic smelter uptime and incoming concentrates, temporarily alleviating tightness in early September.
• Export diversions and U.S. tariff dynamics redirected flows, tightening regional availability and boosting domestic premiums.
• Stable energy and feedstock costs limited cost-push inflation while steady industrial demand supported offtake levels.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• Copper rod Price Index rose about 2% quarter on quarter compared to Q1 2025, reflecting moderate firming in prices across the region.
• Copper rod Production Cost Trend: At the start of the quarter, raw material and freight costs eased slightly, offering limited cost relief to producers. However, by mid quarter, cost inflation in logistics and scrap premiums began to creep back in, supporting producer margins despite soft demand.
• Copper rod Demand Outlook: Downstream industrial demand remained weak throughout the quarter. Industrial consumers, including automotive, electrical, and construction sectors adopted a cautious stance amid trade policy uncertainty. Automotive sales slid, and technology infrastructure roll outs remained muted, leading to sluggish purchases by end users.
• Copper rod Price Forecast: Although short term oversupply risk persisted mid quarter due to elevated COMEX inventories and import volumes, market expectations pointed toward a tightening later in 2025. Structural demand from electrification, renewable energy, and AI data centers is expected to support a modest price recovery by year end.
• Inventories and Supply Dynamics: By the end of the quarter, COMEX copper inventories had surged (up by double digits %) as arbitrage flows intensified, creating an oversupply environment. Global refined output remained steady, while no major logistical disruptions occurred to support price lifts.
• Why did the price of copper rod change in July 2025 in USA?
Copper prices in the U.S. increased sharply in July 2025. This spike followed the U.S. Commerce Department’s announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective August 1, prompting buyers to accelerate purchases ahead of enforcement. COMEX copper futures surged up to ~25%, with physical U.S. prices rallying amid fears of imminent supply constraints and arbitrage distortions.
APAC
• The APAC Copper rod Price Index increased by 3.3% versus Q1 2025, reflecting modest firmness in regional markets.
• Copper rod Production Cost Trend remained stable throughout the quarter, as lower freight expenses and steady raw material availability eased logistics cost pressures, despite limited impact on price direction.
• Copper rod Demand Outlook was muted in early quarter, especially in Indonesia, where industrial sectors like automotive and construction delayed procurement amid high interest rates and cautious sentiment. Despite some activity picking up mid quarter, overall demand recovery was gradual.
• Copper rod Price strength surfaced toward the end of the quarter, supported by tightening global concentrate supply and recovery in infrastructure-related consumption.
• Copper rod Price Forecast anticipates that while immediate oversupply may linger, medium to long term fundamentals including expanding EV and renewable infrastructure demand could support a moderate rebound later in 2025.
• At the start of the quarter, Indonesia’s copper rod market saw a slight decline, driven by weak demand and stable supply; buyers remained cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
• By mid quarter, supply conditions tightened: LME inventories fell by ~2.5%, secondary copper feed was scarce and costly, and logistics costs rose, while domestic demand began strengthening under policies like TKDN and infrastructure projects boosting industrial consumption.
• By end of quarter, supply constraints became more pronounced. Reduced imports from China, scrap shortages, and higher freight pushed copper rod Price upward in Indonesia, with inventories of finished rods dropping and mills operating at elevated capacity utilization.
Why did the price of copper rod change in July 2025 in Asia?
In early July 2025, copper prices surged following the U.S. government's announcement of a sweeping 50% tariff on copper imports, scheduled to take effect on August 1, 2025. This led to a rush of shipments into U.S. ports ahead of enforcement, tightening supply in other regions and sharply increasing premiums such as the CME–LME spread. This flow diversion and arbitrage squeeze caused the Copper rod Price Index in APAC to increase in July.
Europe
• Copper rod Price Index rose by approximately 1.1 % quarter-on-quarter, driven by tightening supply conditions and modest improvements in industrial sentiment in Europe.
• Copper rod Production Cost Trend: Raw input prices, particularly from copper scrap and concentrate treatment charges, remained volatile. Although some moderation in scrap pricing offered limited relief, elevated logistics and energy costs partly offset any cost easing.
• Copper rod Demand Outlook: Demand remained cautious. Construction and automotive sectors in Germany limited purchases largely to essential restocking. Downstream confidence was muted amid global trade uncertainty and sluggish industrial momentum.
• The copper rod market followed typical seasonal volatility: after a weak start of the quarter with falling prices in early April, sentiment turned stronger by mid quarter as LME inventories tightened, cancellations surged, and NEV related demand signals emerged, supporting gradual recovery in copper rod Price Index.
• Copper rod Price Forecast: In the medium term, fundamentals suggest price stability into early Q3 2025, unless unexpected demand shocks or policy changes emerge. Structural demand from energy transition and NEV build-out could support moderate upside later in the year.
Why did the price change in July 2025 in Europe?
Copper rod Price Index in Europe exhibited a mixed reaction in early July as LME prices remained near multi month highs, supported by supply concerns and tariff-induced arbitrage flows. Thus in July 2025, prices in Europe edged down slightly, reflecting retreat from peak levels as tariff driven U.S. demand cooled.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, North America’s copper rod market saw notable volatility, influenced by U.S. trade policies and industrial demand. Supply-chain strains emerged from Chile’s Lundin mine closure and reduced treatment charges, tightening raw material availability. Speculative trading ahead of potential tariffs widened the COMEX-LME price gap, reflecting trade barrier anxieties.
U.S. copper rod prices rose 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, closing at USD 16,131/mt DEL Alabama. President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs under Section 232 investigations triggered a record $920/mt COMEX premium over LME prices. Supply challenges persisted as import reliance (45% of consumption) faced risks from mine closures and logistical bottlenecks.
Demand surged, driven by a 22.1% YoY EV sales growth and a 9.8% monthly rise in automotive sales, alongside construction sector expansion. Data centers and battery manufacturers sought supply stability through partnerships amid cost concerns. While secondary copper inflows alleviated some pressure, primary supply shortages and robust downstream demand kept prices elevated. Tariff-related stockpiling and resilient industrial activity sustained upward momentum, despite mixed sectoral responses and policy uncertainties.
Europe
Europe's copper rod market experienced a slight 0.1% QoQ price decline in Q1 2025, ending the quarter at USD 12,665/mt FOB Hamburg. However, prices showed an upward trend throughout Q1 2025. Supply tightened as London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories fell and Hamburg’s port congestion delayed deliveries. Steady premiums from Aurubis, Europe’s top producer, balanced regional stability against global headwinds. Demand was bolstered by green energy transitions, though manufacturing sluggishness persisted. Germany faced acute supply constraints. Aurubis reported a 7% annual decline in copper concentrate throughput, exacerbated by a 13% production drop at its Hamburg plant. LME inventories fell 3.5% mid-quarter, while port delays from labor shortages and equipment repairs disrupted logistics. Global scrap export restrictions and high energy costs further strained availability. Demand dynamics improved, driven by a 53.5% surge in battery-electric vehicle registrations and solar projects adding 2.15 GW capacity. Car exports rose 19% YoY, aligning with Germany’s €1 trillion infrastructure plan. However, U.S. tariff speculation diverted copper to COMEX, widening spreads and tightening European supply. Lower miner forecasts intensified market tightness, sustaining upward price momentum despite sectoral demand variability.
APAC
The APAC copper rod market grappled with supply-demand imbalances in Q1 2025, driven by global concentrate shortages and regional manufacturing rebounds. South Korea, a key regional player, faced pronounced volatility due to intersecting supply constraints and robust industrial demand. In South Korea, copper rod prices rose 4.5% quarter-on-quarter, closing at USD 11,779/mt FOB Busan. Supply tightened as London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories in Busan continued to fall throughout the quarter, compounded by plummeting treatment charges (TC/RCs) and PT Freeport Indonesia’s smelter delays. Major producers like Aurubis saw a 7% annual drop in concentrate throughput, squeezing raw material availability. Demand remained strong, led by the electrical equipment sector. Investments in data centers and U.S. power infrastructure, alongside restrictions on Chinese imports, spurred orders. Exports of semiconductors (+1.8%) and automobiles (+27.1%) further amplified copper consumption. Geopolitical risks, including potential U.S. tariffs and exchange rate pressures, exacerbated price hikes. Despite domestic employment declines and prolonged delivery times, manufacturing activity rebounded, with input costs rising sharply. The quarter highlighted South Korea’s pivotal role in balancing global supply chains amid tightening markets and geopolitical headwinds.
