China's grain production is projected to reach a record high in the 2024-25 season, driven by increased yields and expanded planted area, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This bumper harvest reinforces Beijing's drive towards greater self-sufficiency in food production.

The NBS estimates total grain output at 706.5 million tonnes (Mt), a 1.6% increase from the 695.4 Mt produced in the previous season. This growth stems from a 0.3% expansion in planted area, reaching 119.3 million hectares (Mha), and a 1.3% rise in average yield across corn, rice, and wheat, reaching 5.92 tonnes per hectare (t/ha).

Corn, the largest crop by area, saw record production of 294.9 Mt, up 2.1% year-on-year, with a yield of 6.59 t/ha. While increased adoption of high-yielding varieties is cited as the primary driver, some industry sources suggest actual production may be lower due to mycotoxin contamination in certain regions. This contamination could limit the corn's usability in some livestock feeds. Despite the contamination issues, corn processing plants are reportedly operating at high capacity, and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) expects increased corn usage for feed and residual purposes, driven by low corn prices.

Rice production, the second largest, is estimated at 207.5 Mt, a modest 0.4% rise, with a yield of 7.15 t/ha. Milled rice output is projected to reach 145.3 Mt. With ample opening stocks and expected imports, total rice supply is forecast to reach 250 Mt, comfortably meeting domestic demand.

Wheat output is also projected to hit a record 140.1 Mt, a 2.6% jump, with a yield of 5.94 t/ha, thanks to favorable growing conditions. While overall quality is reported to be good, supplies of high-protein wheat remain tight, and some regions experienced toxin issues due to wet weather. Wheat prices have fallen, even dipping below the minimum support price (MSP) in some areas. Wheat usage in livestock feed is also forecast to decline due to higher quality wheat, low corn prices and weak demand.

Due to this rise in grain yield, Australia's export figures reflect this downward trend. Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that by the end of November 2024, only 32,000 tonnes of wheat had been shipped to China since July 1, all containerized. This starkly contrasts with the 1.65 million tonnes shipped during the same period in 2023. Furthermore, in January 2025, several bulk wheat sales from Australia to China were either postponed, canceled, or redirected to other Asian markets. These developments reinforce the pessimistic outlook for Chinese wheat demand in the 2024-25 season.