Bearish Trend Hits Global White Oil Markets Amid Economic Challenges

Prices of White Oil witnessed a bearish market in the United States and China, with prices recorded to have declined by almost 5% and 17%, respectively, even though prices of feedstock crude oil showed an increment of an average of 20%. The bearish trend of prices of White Oil in the United States and China is attributed to the weak demand from the downstream adhesive and lubrication industry, evidenced by declining PMI from 334.615 in June to 323.608 in July in the United States and the halting of construction activities in China, due to heavy floods. Major industrial parts of China are recorded underwater, including blackouts reported at key construction sites. The demand from the downstream cosmetic and skincare industry also looked weak as consumer sentiments diminished in China and the USA. Additionally, the deflating economy of China has significantly contributed to the depreciation in the prices of White Oil. The challenging economic conditions in the United States and China are expected to extend towards the 4th Quarter of 2023, with demand expected to be diminishing in the lubrication industry, as evidenced by declining sales by more than 5% in the automotive industry in the United States and by approximately 10% in China, thereby further declining prices of White Oil.

In contrast, the market situation of White Oil was slightly better in India, with prices showing a bullish trend and exhibiting a marginal increment of more than 2%. The price hikes for White Oil were attributed to a surge in inflation, which increased from 4.87% in June to 7.44% in July. Moreover, the demand for White Oil for the downstream adhesive segment was expected to be high, as construction activities are likely to resume as the monsoon season ends. Unpredictable rains continue to cause frequent disruptions in the supply chain system, which further causes an inclination in prices of White Oil. As winter nears, key market players have recorded a healthy demand for White Oil from the downstream skincare and cosmetics industry. Additionally, healthy demand for lubricating oil was witnessed as automotive sales inclined by a further 8% in July. As economic conditions in India continue to recover, key market players hope that a significant demand comes into existence from the downstream lubrication, cosmetics, and construction activities.

Overall, the market of White Oil has largely underperformed in the Chinese and American markets, with performance in the Chinese market being worse than American markets. This was mostly attributed to the insufficient recovery of economic conditions across the United States and China, along with floods caused by cyclone Doksuri. However, the Indian market for White Oil showed a marginally healthy performance, in contrast to the Chinese and American markets, due to the anticipated recovery of the construction industry after the ongoing monsoon season and healthy demand from the downstream cosmetic and skincare industry as the winter season nears.