Balance Market Fundamentals keep Cumene Prices Steady in the US

Louisiana (USA)- Cumene price quotations remained stable trend compared to the previous week, as Cumene manufacturers were able to maintain a balance between production costs and demand outlook from end-use manufacturing units (Methyl Methacrylate (MMA), Bisphenol A, phenol, and other solvents). By the week ending February 9th, Cumene market prices stood at USD 1490 per MT, FOB Louisiana, indicating stability and hope among Cumene manufacturers for increased inquiries in the upcoming weeks in the US market.

The US economy continues to show resilience, in contrast to the challenging outlook for the chemicals sector. Oil prices maintained their gains despite higher-than-expected inflation in January. The IMF raised its 2024 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1%, up from 2.9%, largely due to the improving US outlook. However, chemical companies' Q1 guidance following Q4 earnings calls suggests a difficult start to the year. Low inventory levels are benefiting sellers in the housing market, despite somewhat decreased mortgage rates. High housing prices are deterring potential buyers, and further rate drops could stimulate activity as the paints, pipes, and coating sector may decrease the demand for MMA, consequently affecting the demand for Cumene in the US market. Yet, with historically high prices and limited inventory, many potential sellers and buyers are cautious about the Cumene market.

Despite escalating war and its impact on neighboring nations, oil prices have remained stable, attributed to a significant increase in US oil production the previous year. Analysts believe only a tangible supply interruption would prompt traders to consider geopolitical risks, with many expecting this trend to continue into the current year.

Despite ongoing disruptions in shipping through the Suez Canal due to Red Sea volatility, US retailers are optimistic about import growth in the first half of 2024. This optimism persists despite shipping rates doubling in 2022, partly due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation, which have kept rates elevated.

Cumene production cost is proportional to feedstock (propylene) prices in the domestic market, and propylene, being one of the major chemical commodities, fluctuates frequently in the global market depending on crude oil prices. Propylene prices also remained stable, observed at USD 247 per MT, DEL US Gulf. This aspect plays a major role in influencing the final prices of Cumene in the domestic market. According to ChemAnalyst, Cumene prices in the coming weeks in the US market are expected to move steadily amidst moderate demand and stable production rates.