For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Cumene market experienced a continued downward trend in pricing. Throughout the quarter, the Cumene prices saw a decline in prices driven by broader market uncertainties, including fluctuations in key feedstock prices like naphtha, and concerns surrounding OPEC’s influence on global crude markets. The U.S. chemical industry also faced challenges due to an ongoing dock workers’ strike at Gulf and East Coast ports, which caused delays, supply chain strains, and higher shipping costs. These disruptions further contributed to rising prices, despite weak demand.
Throughout the quarter, U.S. Cumene prices remained subdued, as weak demand from downstream sectors like phenol, bisphenol, and solvents kept pressure on the market. Manufacturers refrained from increasing prices, opting for stable pricing to prevent further market downturns. Additionally, production costs were kept in check due to the consistent weakness in propylene prices.
By December, the market outlook remained bearish, as U.S. domestic production stayed robust but continued to be impacted by limited feedstock availability. The Q4 price trend was marked by persistent softness amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions and moderate demand.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Cumene market in the APAC region saw a declining price trend, with significant price fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Early in the quarter, prices experienced a downward trajectory, primarily driven by reduced feedstock costs, particularly propylene. Lower raw material prices, coupled with soft demand from downstream industries, especially in major markets like China and India, pressured the Cumene market. This period of decline continued through October and November as weak manufacturing activity in sectors such as phenol and bisphenol further suppressed demand.
However, by December, prices stabilized, supported by tighter supply conditions. Despite ongoing soft demand, limited availability of Cumene due to production cuts and lower inventories in key producing countries like South Korea and Japan created upward pressure on prices. Supply chain disruptions, particularly from port congestion and shipping delays, also contributed to the price rise in some areas.
Overall, the APAC Cumene market concluded Q4 with a bearish price outlook, though the demand remained moderate, reflecting broader economic uncertainties and slower industrial activity across the region.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European Cumene market continued to face weak conditions, primarily driven by subdued demand from key downstream sectors such as phenol, bisphenol, and solvents. Producers and sellers refrained from increasing prices due to limited inquiries from end-use industries, opting to keep prices stable to avoid further market downturns. This cautious pricing strategy reflected ongoing efforts to balance supply and demand amid a challenging market environment.
The Eurozone’s manufacturing activity hit a nine-month low, with key indicators such as production output and new orders showing significant declines, particularly in petrochemicals and Cumene. Despite this, some countries like Spain saw modest improvements, but these were insufficient to offset the broader regional downturn.
Throughout Q4, Cumene prices in Europe, particularly in Belgium, remained under pressure from lower production costs driven by weak propylene prices. The demand outlook remained moderate, with a slow pace of recovery, as economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions added to the complexity of the market. As a result, the European Cumene market concluded Q4 2024 with stable but subdued pricing, reflecting ongoing weak demand and production cost stability.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Cumene market experienced a significant decline in prices, with the USA witnessing the most notable price changes. Various factors contributed to this downward trend, including fluctuations in naphtha prices, a key feedstock for cumene production, and uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions.
The region saw a 30% decrease in prices compared to the same quarter last year, with a -9% drop from the previous quarter in 2024. Market trends pointed towards a challenging landscape, characterized by weakening demand from key sectors and ongoing supply chain disruptions. The correlation between crude oil prices and Cumene pricing remained evident, further influencing market dynamics and contributing to the overall downward price trajectory.
Despite rising tensions in the Middle East and output cuts by OPEC and its allies, concerns over supply shortages have not greatly impacted the market. Companies needed strategic inventory management and production scheduling to navigate conditions. While the market trended toward stability, carriers had to manage rate adjustments to maintain profitability. Naphtha prices had also fallen to four-week lows, easing pressure on the cumene supply chain as lower crude prices and reduced petrochemical demand offered temporary relief to producers.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region saw mixed Cumene prices, with a notable -17% decrease from the same quarter last year. Effective inventory management and production scheduling were crucial for companies to successfully navigate the prevailing market conditions. Although the market was moving toward greater stability, carriers had to manage rate adjustments and market dynamics carefully to maintain profitability and high service quality. In early September, cumene prices in the Chinese market rose due to increased demand expectations and positive domestic naphtha price trends. Price negotiations remained high, with reports indicating steady increases throughout the day, driven by surging upstream oil prices. Additionally, strong demand from end-use manufacturing units, including styrene and other aromatics, further boosted cumene prices. On a broader economic scale, crude oil futures rebounded to early-week levels as weaker Chinese demand concerns were offset by stronger U.S. demand forecasts, supported by GDP estimates and consumer spending data. Prices rose during the afternoon session of Asian trading, fueled by anticipation of China's factory and services activity data release, which was expected to prompt calls for additional stimulus from Beijing. Port congestion in China eased, with Ningbo and Qingdao seeing reduced delays, though severe congestion in India and ongoing issues in Singapore continued to affect global trade flows.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Cumene pricing landscape in Europe witnessed a significant downturn, with prices experiencing a notable decline. This downward trend was predominantly influenced by a combination of factors such as decreased demand in key downstream industries, including polycarbonate, paints, and coatings, as well as the sluggish performance of sectors like agrochemicals and fuel and lubricants. These factors created a challenging market environment, forcing producers to cut production levels and grapple with substantial financial pressures. The correlation between naphtha prices, a critical raw material for Cumene production, and overall market costs played a pivotal role in driving prices lower. The strike by port workers at Bremerhaven and the Port of Hamburg disrupted operations for several days due to a dispute between workers' unions and the Central Association of German Seaport Operators (ZDS) regarding collective wage bargaining negotiations. As these negotiations entered their third round, there was a potential for further industrial action by port workers to push for their demands, which could have affected the cumene supply chain.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American cumene market exhibited a notable decline in pricing, reflecting a bearish sentiment throughout the quarter with several key factors contributing to this downward trend. Primarily, modest demand from end-use manufacturing sectors such as acetone, phenol, and other aromatics significantly influenced cumene prices. Additionally, persistent fluctuations in crude oil and naphtha prices, critical feedstocks for cumene, played a crucial role in this pricing dynamic. The petrochemical industry faced disruptions due to hurricanes affecting crude oil production and refining operations, particularly in offshore areas vulnerable to severe weather also leading to tight supplies.
Focusing on the USA, which experienced the most dramatic price shifts, the cumene market witnessed a consistent decline. Seasonal factors, including a reduction in construction activity and a winter slowdown, exacerbated the situation. The correlation between crude oil prices and cumene prices remained strong, with fluctuations in crude oil directly impacting cumene costs. The price of cumene in the USA saw a substantial year-over-year decrease of 9%, with a 5% drop from the previous quarter in 2024. The first and second halves of Q2 showed a further 4% decline.
Concluding the quarter, cumene prices in the USA settled at USD 1351 per MT, FOB Louisiana, underscoring a predominantly negative pricing environment driven by subdued demand, logistical challenges, and seasonal variations.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the cumene market across the APAC region has experienced a generally stable pricing environment. The stability in prices has been attributed to several influential factors. Firstly, the ability of retailers and end-use manufacturing units to strike a balance between supply and demand has played a crucial role. The steady demand from sectors such as acetone, phenol, and other aromatics has also maintained equilibrium in the market. Furthermore, the consistent crude oil prices, which significantly impact naphtha production, a key precursor for cumene have provided a stable foundation for cumene pricing.
Focusing exclusively on China, which has seen the most significant price changes, the market trends have shown a discernible correlation with broader regional dynamics. Despite global uncertainties, the Chinese market has managed to maintain stable pricing, largely due to sufficient inventory levels and moderate import volumes aligning with demand. The seasonality impact has been minimal this quarter, ensuring steady market conditions.
Compared to the same quarter last year, the prices have decreased by 9%, reflecting a more balanced market approach against last year's volatility. From the previous quarter in 2024, there has been a slight 1% increase in prices, indicating a marginal upward trend but still within stable limits. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter has shown no significant change, recorded at 0%, further highlighting the stability. Conclusively, the latest quarter-ending price of cumene in China is USD 1089/MT CFR Qingdao, underscoring a stable pricing sentiment that has been neither overly positive nor negative, but consistently balanced throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the cumene market in Europe experienced a significant decline in prices, primarily driven by weak production costs and tepid demand from industries such as paints, coatings, and other solvent-consuming sectors. The drop in naphtha prices, cumene's primary raw material, was influenced by ongoing global geopolitical tensions and ample local stockpiles, which pushed down production costs across the region. Additionally, the Eurozone's industrial sector showed lackluster performance, with manufacturing output continuing to decline, although at a slower rate than in previous quarters.
Belgium, in particular, witnessed the most pronounced price changes. Factors such as decreased construction activity, government restrictions on new permits, and overall economic sluggishness contributed to the subdued demand for cumene. Seasonality also played a role, with the second half of the quarter seeing reduced activity compared to the first.
The quarter-ending price for cumene in Belgium stood at USD 1276/MT, CFR Antwerp, reflecting a stable yet consistently decreasing trend throughout Q2 2024. The pricing environment has been predominantly negative, as evidenced by the consistent and significant downward adjustments influenced by macroeconomic factors, market dynamics, and seasonal variances.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Cumene prices in North America for Q1 2024 have experienced a downward trend, reflecting a negative pricing environment. Several factors have influenced market prices, including reduced demand in downstream industries, such as paints, coatings, and adhesives, and a seasonal winter slowdown. Additionally, the market has been facing oversupply conditions, leading to increased inventories and downward pressure on prices.
The decrease in cumene prices in the region has been consistent throughout the quarter. In the USA, which has seen the maximum price changes, cumene prices have decreased by 9% compared to the same quarter last year. The price decline from the previous quarter in 2024 has been recorded at 2%, indicating a continued downward trend. Moreover, there has been a 1% decrease in prices between the first and second half of the quarter, further highlighting the negative pricing environment.
The Q1 2024 ending price for Cumene in the USA is USD 1460 per metric ton, FOB Louisiana. This reflects the overall decreasing sentiment in the market and the stable prices observed towards the end of the quarter. Overall, the cumene pricing environment in North America for Q1 2024 has been negative, with prices showing a consistent decrease. The market has been impacted by reduced demand, oversupply conditions, and a seasonal slowdown, leading to downward pressure on prices.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Cumene market in the APAC region experienced an upward trend in prices. The outcomes of the OPEC+ production policy meeting fell short of market expectations, as production cuts did not meet anticipated levels. Market negotiations were generally active, prompting major units to increase their listed prices. Downstream phenol and phenolic resins experienced a continual uptrend, with the East China market maintaining acceptable transaction levels. Shandong Refinery held onto inventory during the holiday season, anticipating a price upswing. The price of benzene (feedstock) was predicted to remain elevated and susceptible to changes. Naphtha prices, crucial for petrochemical production, rose in Asia due to drone strikes on Russian refineries and the shipping crisis in the Red Sea, causing disruptions in European shipments. Demand for acetone, phenol, and other solvents remained stable and continuous. The quarter-ending price for Cumene in China was observed at USD 1081 per MT CFR Qingdao.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the pricing environment for Cumene in the European region has been largely stable, with some fluctuations observed in Belgium. The overall market has been influenced by factors such as increased demand from downstream industries, higher production costs, and rising oil prices. Cumene prices in Belgium have seen a positive trend, with a moderate increase of 1.5% in March. This rise can be attributed to the growing demand from industries such as phenol, acetone, paints, and coatings, which has led to an increase in prices to balance the demand-supply chain. Additionally, higher local production costs and concerns about sourcing from Europe have driven the prices up. In terms of seasonality, the demand for Cumene has been affected by reduced construction activity and a seasonal winter slowdown. This has resulted in stability in prices during the quarter. Comparing the prices in Q1 2024 to the same quarter last year, there has been a significant increase. However, the percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 has been moderate. Over the quarter, there has been a slight increase in prices, with the latest quarter-ending price recorded at USD 1395/MT of Cumene CFR Antwerp in Belgium. Overall, the pricing environment for Cumene in Q1 2024 in the European region has been positive, with stable prices and some moderate increases observed in Belgium. Factors such as increased demand and higher production costs have influenced the market dynamics.
