For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Cumene market experienced a significant decline in prices, with the USA witnessing the most notable price changes. Various factors contributed to this downward trend, including fluctuations in naphtha prices, a key feedstock for cumene production, and uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions.
The region saw a 30% decrease in prices compared to the same quarter last year, with a -9% drop from the previous quarter in 2024. Market trends pointed towards a challenging landscape, characterized by weakening demand from key sectors and ongoing supply chain disruptions. The correlation between crude oil prices and Cumene pricing remained evident, further influencing market dynamics and contributing to the overall downward price trajectory.
Despite rising tensions in the Middle East and output cuts by OPEC and its allies, concerns over supply shortages have not greatly impacted the market. Companies needed strategic inventory management and production scheduling to navigate conditions. While the market trended toward stability, carriers had to manage rate adjustments to maintain profitability. Naphtha prices had also fallen to four-week lows, easing pressure on the cumene supply chain as lower crude prices and reduced petrochemical demand offered temporary relief to producers.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region saw mixed Cumene prices, with a notable -17% decrease from the same quarter last year. Effective inventory management and production scheduling were crucial for companies to successfully navigate the prevailing market conditions. Although the market was moving toward greater stability, carriers had to manage rate adjustments and market dynamics carefully to maintain profitability and high service quality. In early September, cumene prices in the Chinese market rose due to increased demand expectations and positive domestic naphtha price trends. Price negotiations remained high, with reports indicating steady increases throughout the day, driven by surging upstream oil prices. Additionally, strong demand from end-use manufacturing units, including styrene and other aromatics, further boosted cumene prices. On a broader economic scale, crude oil futures rebounded to early-week levels as weaker Chinese demand concerns were offset by stronger U.S. demand forecasts, supported by GDP estimates and consumer spending data. Prices rose during the afternoon session of Asian trading, fueled by anticipation of China's factory and services activity data release, which was expected to prompt calls for additional stimulus from Beijing. Port congestion in China eased, with Ningbo and Qingdao seeing reduced delays, though severe congestion in India and ongoing issues in Singapore continued to affect global trade flows.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Cumene pricing landscape in Europe witnessed a significant downturn, with prices experiencing a notable decline. This downward trend was predominantly influenced by a combination of factors such as decreased demand in key downstream industries, including polycarbonate, paints, and coatings, as well as the sluggish performance of sectors like agrochemicals and fuel and lubricants. These factors created a challenging market environment, forcing producers to cut production levels and grapple with substantial financial pressures. The correlation between naphtha prices, a critical raw material for Cumene production, and overall market costs played a pivotal role in driving prices lower. The strike by port workers at Bremerhaven and the Port of Hamburg disrupted operations for several days due to a dispute between workers' unions and the Central Association of German Seaport Operators (ZDS) regarding collective wage bargaining negotiations. As these negotiations entered their third round, there was a potential for further industrial action by port workers to push for their demands, which could have affected the cumene supply chain.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American cumene market exhibited a notable decline in pricing, reflecting a bearish sentiment throughout the quarter with several key factors contributing to this downward trend. Primarily, modest demand from end-use manufacturing sectors such as acetone, phenol, and other aromatics significantly influenced cumene prices. Additionally, persistent fluctuations in crude oil and naphtha prices, critical feedstocks for cumene, played a crucial role in this pricing dynamic. The petrochemical industry faced disruptions due to hurricanes affecting crude oil production and refining operations, particularly in offshore areas vulnerable to severe weather also leading to tight supplies.
Focusing on the USA, which experienced the most dramatic price shifts, the cumene market witnessed a consistent decline. Seasonal factors, including a reduction in construction activity and a winter slowdown, exacerbated the situation. The correlation between crude oil prices and cumene prices remained strong, with fluctuations in crude oil directly impacting cumene costs. The price of cumene in the USA saw a substantial year-over-year decrease of 9%, with a 5% drop from the previous quarter in 2024. The first and second halves of Q2 showed a further 4% decline.
Concluding the quarter, cumene prices in the USA settled at USD 1351 per MT, FOB Louisiana, underscoring a predominantly negative pricing environment driven by subdued demand, logistical challenges, and seasonal variations.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the cumene market across the APAC region has experienced a generally stable pricing environment. The stability in prices has been attributed to several influential factors. Firstly, the ability of retailers and end-use manufacturing units to strike a balance between supply and demand has played a crucial role. The steady demand from sectors such as acetone, phenol, and other aromatics has also maintained equilibrium in the market. Furthermore, the consistent crude oil prices, which significantly impact naphtha production, a key precursor for cumene have provided a stable foundation for cumene pricing.
Focusing exclusively on China, which has seen the most significant price changes, the market trends have shown a discernible correlation with broader regional dynamics. Despite global uncertainties, the Chinese market has managed to maintain stable pricing, largely due to sufficient inventory levels and moderate import volumes aligning with demand. The seasonality impact has been minimal this quarter, ensuring steady market conditions.
Compared to the same quarter last year, the prices have decreased by 9%, reflecting a more balanced market approach against last year's volatility. From the previous quarter in 2024, there has been a slight 1% increase in prices, indicating a marginal upward trend but still within stable limits. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter has shown no significant change, recorded at 0%, further highlighting the stability. Conclusively, the latest quarter-ending price of cumene in China is USD 1089/MT CFR Qingdao, underscoring a stable pricing sentiment that has been neither overly positive nor negative, but consistently balanced throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the cumene market in Europe experienced a significant decline in prices, primarily driven by weak production costs and tepid demand from industries such as paints, coatings, and other solvent-consuming sectors. The drop in naphtha prices, cumene's primary raw material, was influenced by ongoing global geopolitical tensions and ample local stockpiles, which pushed down production costs across the region. Additionally, the Eurozone's industrial sector showed lackluster performance, with manufacturing output continuing to decline, although at a slower rate than in previous quarters.
Belgium, in particular, witnessed the most pronounced price changes. Factors such as decreased construction activity, government restrictions on new permits, and overall economic sluggishness contributed to the subdued demand for cumene. Seasonality also played a role, with the second half of the quarter seeing reduced activity compared to the first.
The quarter-ending price for cumene in Belgium stood at USD 1276/MT, CFR Antwerp, reflecting a stable yet consistently decreasing trend throughout Q2 2024. The pricing environment has been predominantly negative, as evidenced by the consistent and significant downward adjustments influenced by macroeconomic factors, market dynamics, and seasonal variances.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Cumene prices in North America for Q1 2024 have experienced a downward trend, reflecting a negative pricing environment. Several factors have influenced market prices, including reduced demand in downstream industries, such as paints, coatings, and adhesives, and a seasonal winter slowdown. Additionally, the market has been facing oversupply conditions, leading to increased inventories and downward pressure on prices.
The decrease in cumene prices in the region has been consistent throughout the quarter. In the USA, which has seen the maximum price changes, cumene prices have decreased by 9% compared to the same quarter last year. The price decline from the previous quarter in 2024 has been recorded at 2%, indicating a continued downward trend. Moreover, there has been a 1% decrease in prices between the first and second half of the quarter, further highlighting the negative pricing environment.
The Q1 2024 ending price for Cumene in the USA is USD 1460 per metric ton, FOB Louisiana. This reflects the overall decreasing sentiment in the market and the stable prices observed towards the end of the quarter. Overall, the cumene pricing environment in North America for Q1 2024 has been negative, with prices showing a consistent decrease. The market has been impacted by reduced demand, oversupply conditions, and a seasonal slowdown, leading to downward pressure on prices.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Cumene market in the APAC region experienced an upward trend in prices. The outcomes of the OPEC+ production policy meeting fell short of market expectations, as production cuts did not meet anticipated levels. Market negotiations were generally active, prompting major units to increase their listed prices. Downstream phenol and phenolic resins experienced a continual uptrend, with the East China market maintaining acceptable transaction levels. Shandong Refinery held onto inventory during the holiday season, anticipating a price upswing. The price of benzene (feedstock) was predicted to remain elevated and susceptible to changes. Naphtha prices, crucial for petrochemical production, rose in Asia due to drone strikes on Russian refineries and the shipping crisis in the Red Sea, causing disruptions in European shipments. Demand for acetone, phenol, and other solvents remained stable and continuous. The quarter-ending price for Cumene in China was observed at USD 1081 per MT CFR Qingdao.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the pricing environment for Cumene in the European region has been largely stable, with some fluctuations observed in Belgium. The overall market has been influenced by factors such as increased demand from downstream industries, higher production costs, and rising oil prices. Cumene prices in Belgium have seen a positive trend, with a moderate increase of 1.5% in March. This rise can be attributed to the growing demand from industries such as phenol, acetone, paints, and coatings, which has led to an increase in prices to balance the demand-supply chain. Additionally, higher local production costs and concerns about sourcing from Europe have driven the prices up. In terms of seasonality, the demand for Cumene has been affected by reduced construction activity and a seasonal winter slowdown. This has resulted in stability in prices during the quarter. Comparing the prices in Q1 2024 to the same quarter last year, there has been a significant increase. However, the percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 has been moderate. Over the quarter, there has been a slight increase in prices, with the latest quarter-ending price recorded at USD 1395/MT of Cumene CFR Antwerp in Belgium. Overall, the pricing environment for Cumene in Q1 2024 in the European region has been positive, with stable prices and some moderate increases observed in Belgium. Factors such as increased demand and higher production costs have influenced the market dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
During the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American cumene market experienced a bearish trend characterized by a surplus of supply and moderate demand from downstream sectors. The oversupply situation in the market led to a decrease in cumene prices, attributed to reduced demand from industries such as polycarbonate, paint, and coatings, along with the customary winter slowdown. Freight charges also saw a moderation due to the diminished demand. The construction sector slowdown and decreased demand in various industrial markets, including agrochemicals, coatings and adhesives, fuel and lubes, contributed to lower sales volumes across all regions.
Production costs for cumene were weak, influenced by the low-cost support from upstream crude oil and declining chemical prices globally. In the United States, crude oil inventories saw a reduction, while the strategic petroleum reserve remained unchanged. Cumene prices in the US market observed a decline, settling at USD 1458 per metric ton, Free on Board (FOB) Louisiana.
Looking at the price dynamics, the percentage change in cumene prices in the USA during the Q4 of the previous year was -12%, while the percentage change from the previous quarter was -1%.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Cumene market in the APAC region experienced a bearish trend, primarily driven by a diminished demand outlook from downstream sectors like styrene, aromatics, and solvents. Supply levels remained low to moderate, with domestic refineries maintaining optimal production rates. However, as the quarter progressed, production rates decreased, aligning with a sluggish demand outlook. Buyers were favoured with new offers, encouraging higher order placements, and there was optimism for improved price dynamics in Q1 2024. The Chinese Cumene market exhibited stability with a moderate supply, and demand from downstream sectors like Acetone and Phenol remained consistent. Prices remained unchanged in the initial week of October 2023 due to Golden Week holidays. The latter half of Q4 saw destocking activities dominating, leading to an easing in prices. The peak of the festive season in the Asian market was anticipated to stimulate demand, subsequently exerting pressure on prices. The latest price of Cumene CFR Qingdao in China for Q4 2023 was reported at USD 1079 per metric ton.
Europe
In Q4 2023, cumene prices experienced a decline, primarily influenced by the insufficient cost support from crude oil, coupled with decreases in upstream benzene and downstream acetone and phenol prices. The European petrochemicals sector grappled with a combination of weak demand and oversupply. Widespread weak demand for chemicals prompted several companies across Europe to shut down plants. Belgium, anticipating its upcoming presidency of the Council of the EU, expressed its intention to resist relaxing state aid oversight within the European Union. A regional minister cautioned against the risk of a subsidy race or "subsidy war," highlighting the need to prevent disruptions to the internal market. Both Belgium and the Netherlands faced tight labor markets, with a job vacancy rate of 5% recorded in the third quarter of 2023. Throughout the month, the demand for cumene from industries such as bisphenol, phenol, and other solvent sectors remained weak, exerting downward pressure on the final prices of cumene. The latest price of Cumene CFR Antwerp in Belgium for Q4 2023 was reported at USD 1330 per metric ton.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The third quarter of 2023 witnessed a fluctuating sentiment in Cumene prices in the United States. Prices initially declined during the first month of the quarter but showed an upward trend in the last two months. The decline in Cumene prices in the first month of Q3 was influenced by factors such as steady procurement activities, weak pricing in the upstream market, and reduced demand from the Phenol segment. Additionally, abundant inventory levels and a decline in the upstream Benzene market contributed to this initial dip in prices. However, a positive shift occurred in August 2023. This transformation was driven by a substantial increase in demand from downstream Acetone, supported by rising cost levels in the upstream market, particularly as crude oil prices rallied in July 2023. The steady rise in the upstream Benzene market, in parallel with strengthening WTI crude oil prices in July and early August 2023, provided firm cost support. The increase in prices of feedstock Benzene subsequently translated into firm pricing for downstream Cumene. Simultaneously, demand for Acetone and Phenol experienced an upswing in the North American region, driven by active consumption in the automotive and construction industries. The construction sector exhibited robust performance, with healthy output in both housing and commercial segments, resulting in strong demand for paints and coatings—a key end-use segment for Acetone and Phenol. As of August 2023, Cumene prices were assessed at USD 1590 per MT on an FOB basis, marking the culmination of these market dynamics in the United States.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2023, Cumene prices experienced a sharp and notable increase. This surge can be attributed to various influential factors. Demand from the downstream Acetone and Phenol industry played a significant role in driving this upward movement, as it gained considerable momentum. Notably, Sinopec increased its prices, and the rise in feedstock Benzene prices was closely tied to the strengthening of crude oil prices. Additionally, high import prices further contributed to the price growth. China, in particular, witnessed heightened demand from the downstream Acetone and Phenol industry, which represents a substantial consumption segment. This increased demand coincided with notable momentum in downstream derivatives. However, a sharp surge in demand for Bisphenol A added pressure to demand dynamics, resulting in consequent price increases. Benzene prices displayed consistent growth, driven by the recent uptick in crude oil prices over the past weeks, providing ample cost support. Furthermore, the production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia had a significant impact on oil prices, extending their ongoing production and export cuts through the end of the year. This, in turn, solidified prices for upstream Benzene and contributed to an escalation in the production cost of Cumene. Import costs for Cumene reaching Chinese shores were high due to bullish market sentiment in the Asian region, which was also reflected in pricing trends. By the end of August 2023, Cumene prices were assessed at USD 1286 per MT on a CFR basis.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2023, Cumene prices in the European region witnessed a substantial increase due to several key factors. Notably, high prices of feedstock Benzene, in conjunction with the continuous rise in Brent crude oil prices, played a pivotal role in this price surge. The production cuts initiated by Saudi Arabia and Russia, coupled with high prices of downstream derivatives, further contributed to this trend. Additionally, costly imports from Asian countries underscored the dynamics that influenced Cumene prices. The upstream Benzene market experienced a notable uptick, aligning with the strengthening of crude oil prices, which exerted significant cost pressure on Heavy Aromatic naphtha and its derivatives. Furthermore, Cumene prices improved significantly in August 2023, driven by a substantial rise in cost support from upstream sources, coinciding with the continuous uptrend in Brent crude oil prices throughout that month. The impact of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia was particularly instrumental in maintaining high Cumene prices. As of the end of August 2023, Cumene prices were assessed at USD 1480 per MT on an FOB Rotterdam basis. These cumulative factors shaped the price dynamics of Cumene in the European market during the third quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The Cumene prices plunged in the first half of the Q2 from April to mid-May which later took an downside in second half of the quarter from mid-May to June. The prices hike at the starting of second quarter is owing to fact of optimistic momentum in feedstock prices and improved demand sentiments from the downstream value chains. In the third week of May, sluggish cost pressure from upstream benzene resulted into decreasing cost support. Thus, as of 19th of May, 2023 the cumene prices was assessed at USD 1470/MT FOB Texas, a decline of 9.5%. However, in the month of June, the prices bounced back to follow the upside trend on the back of stable cost support and increased demand from downstream acetone and phenol. On top of that the limited supply of WTI crude oil from upstream oil companies have further pushed the Cumene prices up. Thus, after the conclusion of the second quarter, Cumene prices in the US were closed at USD 1490 per MT FOB basis following slight decrease.
APAC
There was a drastic drop about 15% in cumene prices in the first half of Q2 from April to mid may which later on recovered during the second half of the quarter from mid-May to June. The prices in the first half continued their downtrend owing to weak demand fundamentals from downstream acetone and phenol which has both witnessed major demand crunch and considering firm supply in market, it took a further decline. While in the second half from mid-May it recovered by 95% owing to stable cost of production and improved demand pressure from downstream derivatives which is thereby utilized in construction industry and resulting an active boom. Market participants reported that the demand sentiment has improved post Dragon Boat festival and procurements have been active with ample new queries from downstream buyers. Further, the decline in prices of crude oil have pushed the Cumene prices up. Thus, at the closing of the second quarter, Cumene prices in China were assessed at USD 1180 per MT FOB basis.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2023, market prices in European countries including Belgium, Netherlands has been characterized by downwards trend which is a consequence of less demand received from downstream players in acetone and phenol industry and weak cost support from Upstream industries. Thus, Cumene prices at the end of May were assessed at USD 1490/MT Cumene, Belgium on CFR basis. The cumene prices have continued to follow their bearish rally due to weak demand from international players, consistent import from the Asia-pacific region and abundant inventory level in domestic market as well as at the ports. Crude oil prices, globally, have reached normalcy after 2022 upheaval. Moreover, as per industry reports, the agrochemical, construction and electronic industries have shown a substantial decline in terms of volumes. Demand from downstream acetone and phenol industries has witnessed stagnancy with limited new queries in the last two weeks of Q2, procurements have been largely weak led to further reduction in prices of Cumene to USD 1450/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the US market, Cumene prices have increased throughout the first quarter of 2023 owing to optimistic momentum in feedstock prices on the back of firm crude oil prices and improved demand sentiment from the downstream value chains. Meanwhile, there were supply chain disruptions observed in the US West Coast Ports. In terms of domestic production, operating rates have been firm and material availability has been robust in the domestic market. Meanwhile, feedstock Benzene prices have also increased, resulting in firm cost pressure over Cumene. Furthermore, the US Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles have witnessed a shortage of laborers and dockworkers, which eventually led to the temporary shutdown of the ports. Furthermore, demand from the downstream Acetone and Phenol industry has been firm with ample new orders while economic uncertainty has weighed heavily on the international demand. Thus, as of March 2023, Cumene prices were assessed at USD 1605 per MT on a FOB basis.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2023, upstream Benzene costs have improved while downstream demand has increased after the Lunar New holidays. Thus, cumene prices have remained on a bullish trend as prices increased consistently throughout the quarter. The supply and demand dynamics remained balanced as traders reported ample availability of the material in the domestic market as well as at the ports. Meanwhile, the cost pressure from Benzene remained optimum for the major part of the quarter on the back of firm downstream demand from Styrene, Cumene, and other value chains. Meanwhile, the demand from downstream Acetone has increased substantially while Phenol offtakes have been steady with stable consumption rates. Thus, Cumene prices were assessed at USD 1215 per MT on a FOB basis in March 2023.
Europe
In the European market, Cumene prices remained bullish for most of the quarter on the back of firm cost pressure and increased demand from downstream value chains. Initially, Cumene prices remained mostly steady with a balance in the demand and supply fundamentals. Thus, increasing cost pressure from feedstock Benzene and rising offtakes from downstream Acetone resulted in increased prices in the last two months of the first quarter. Meanwhile, the imports from the Asian markets have remained steady with firm prices as healthy demand sentiment was observed in the Asian region. This prompted Asian exporters to keep the prices on the higher end with better negotiations. Thus, as of March 2023, Cumene prices were assessed at USD 1625 per MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In North America, prices for Cumene also saw a continuous decline throughout Q4, with prices assessed at USD 1339/MT FOB Louisiana. This can be attributed to a drop in demand from downstream value chains such as Phenol and Acetone, as well as declining consumer sentiment owing to the threat of a recession. Additionally, weak feedstock benzene prices due to a sharp fall in WTI crude oil prices in Q4 2022 also contributed to the market sentiment. WTI crude oil prices dropped sharply, followed by the drop in natural gas prices, which eased the feedstock prices and overall production cost of Cumene in the region. Soft cost pressure amid sluggish demand further deteriorated the pricing sentiment.
Asia-Pacific
The Asia-Pacific market for Cumene saw a decline in prices throughout the quarter, with prices assessed at USD 1062/MT in December 2022. This can be attributed to sluggish demand from downstream industries such as Phenol and Acetone, as well as a drop in feedstock Benzene prices. Crude oil prices dropped sharply in Q4 after wreaking havoc in earlier quarters of 2022. A sharp drop in crude oil boded well for the drop in Benzene prices. Logistical constraints due to Covid lockdowns also played a role in the market sentiment.
Europe
In Europe, Cumene prices showed a mixed trend in Q4 2022. Prices dropped in October, then increased in November, before dropping sharply in December, with prices assessed at USD 1460/MT FD Antwerp. Factors contributing to this trend include a drop in Benzene prices, and cheaper imports from the Asia-Pacific region were also major contributing factors as the freight charges on the Asia-European routes dropped drastically in the concluded quarter of 2022. Consumer sentiment witnessed major deterioration due to recessionary fears, which culminated in soft demand dynamics from the downstream Acetone, Phenol, and other value chains.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter of 2022, the Cumene market in the North American region observed a persistent downward trajectory. This trend in the pricing of Cumene is majorly attributed to the subdued cost support from the feedstocks. The rising global inflation, coupled with the appreciation of the USD against all currencies in the exchange, levied a significant impact on the offtakes of Crude Oil. In response, the demand dropped amidst the bounding of FOREX reserves which proportionally impacted the value of Crude Oil in the international market. As a ripple effect, the FOB Louisiana discussions for Cumene settled at USD 1665 per tonne in September.
Asia Pacific
Overall, the Cumene market in the Asia Pacific region remains consistently depreciating during the third quarter of 2022. This development is majorly attributed to the downtrend in the value of Crude Oil amidst rising inflation, and the depreciation of Asian currencies against the USD has significantly impacted the demand and offtakes of Crude Oil, suppressing its monetary values in the international markets. In addition, the operations at the manufacturing facilities in China have further plunged amidst the power rationing impacting the overall demand in the domestic market. As a ripple effect, the CFR Qingdao discussions for Cumene were assessed at USD 1188 per tonne during the quarter ending in September. At the same time, the offtakes and manufacturing activities in the major Southeast Asian economies, such as India, remained healthy amidst the festive season.
Europe
The Cumene market in the European region has remained bearish within the limited intact during the third quarter of 2022. Since the European Union imposed sanctions on Russia amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict has limited its dependence on Russian supplies and sought out other possible markets to ensure the supply of essential energy materials. In addition, the cost support from the essential feedstocks such as Benzene and Propylene has been plugged consistently, which was instigated by the inadequate demand and lower cost support from Crude Oil in the international market. In addition, the rising inflation and depreciation of European currencies against the USD further suppresses the market sentiments for Cumene during the quarter ending in September. As a ripple effect, the CFR Antwerp discussions for Cumene settled at USD 1430 per tonne in September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During the second quarter of 2022, Cumene prices showcased an uptrend in the US market. The sanction on European oil imports resulted in a tight supply of oil. The increased raw material prices have been influencing the Cumene market. Moreover, the increased interest rates by the Federal reserves also boosted the commodities price. Also, the increased demand for the product from the domestic and global markets has triggered the Cumene market. The rising downstream derivatives Phenol and Acetone production results in the high Cumene requirement. Besides, the inflated price of exported cargoes is also involved in the price hike of Cumene.
APAC
The Indian market showcased a mixed trend in the Cumene prices during the second quarter of 2022. In April, the price rose following the increasing price trend of upstream Crude and feedstock Benzene. Also, the healthy buying sentiments from the domestic market triggered the price trend. In May, Cumene's price witnessed a drop due to the high inventories in the previous month, resulting in the stockpiling of the product. However, due to the low demand from China, the international crude price dropped further, pulling down the Cumene prices. Again, in June, the Cumene market rose due to the surging demand from the end-use automotive, construction, and chemical sectors. Besides, the freight charges also rose, boosting the Cumene market.
Europe
In the quarter ending June 2022, Cumene prices rose in the European region. The EU government imposed sanctions on Russian oil imports due to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, which reduced the amount of Crude that was available. Hence, the upstream Crude values increased due to the supply deficit, which supported the Cumene price hike. Additionally, the demand from producers of the downstream derivatives phenol and acetone increased, driving up prices for Cumene. The high buying activity in the domestic market and the limited supply forced the providers to change their prices. Moreover, the high fuel and increasing freight charges influence the Cumene market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In North America, prices of Cumene showcased mixed sentiments during the first quarter of 2022. Initially, the prices rose marginally in January and February due to the surging raw materials and their derivatives aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war. High freight, transportation, and feedstock charges also aided the market trend of Cumene in the US market as it is primarily imported from Japan. Prices of Cumene in the USA rose by about 3.3% and settled at USD 1240 per MT in February. Later in March, prices witnessed a slight drop due to the ample availability of the product and drowning demand from the domestic market.
Asia Pacific
During the quarter ending March 2022, Cumene witnessed a continuous rise in the Asian market. Rising demand for the commodity in the downstream automotive and chemical sector and excessive increase in crude prices resulted in the price hike of Cumene. Later, even though there was no significant increase in inquiries, manufacturers were forced to pass on the cost pressure to consumers in order to protect their margins. Furthermore, soaring freight and transportation charges due to high fuel prices also severely impacted Cumene values. Thus, Cumene's CFR prices in India were assessed at USD 1415 per MT in March.
Europe
Cumene prices observed a mixed sentiment in the quarter ending 2022. In the month of January and February, prices rose marginally due to increased demand for Cumene from the regional market, Cumene prices rose with an inclination of 3.1% from January to February and settled at USD 1320 per MT in February. Prices began to drop in March due to the sanctions from certain countries that disrupted the trade activities after the Russia- Ukraine war. High inventory levels and a decrease in demand resulted in the price drop in late-Q1 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In North America, prices of Cumene after witnessing continuous surge turned feeble due to the seasonal slowdown in demand for derivatives Phenol and Acetone. Traders reported of limited enquiries from buyers as they were already filled with stocks for fetching consumer demand in the near term. By the end of Q1, demand supply gap for Cumene further narrowed following the plummeting demand from solvent industry. No scheduled turnarounds in the region in Q1 further strengthened the supply of various petrochemicals. Amidst ample material availability, Cumene FOB prices in USA averaged at USD 1040 per MT in Q4 2021.
Asia
Cumene prices witnessed a downward trend backed by weaker Propylene markets and dull market dynamics in Asia. Lackluster demand was reflected in the downstream Phenol and Acetone market amid the progression of the final quarter of 2021. Enquiries for Cumene were observed to be low as traders restrained to indulge in any bulk contract purchases in the whole of December. Besides high output of feedstock Benzene amidst the stagnated demand gave manufacturers room to reduce pressure upon buyers. Cumene CFR prices in India were assessed at USD 1355 per MT in December. In late-November, Shell, a renowned petrochemical manufacturer based in Singapore underwent a fire accident due to which the cracker went offline for around week, the accident temporarily caped the supply of Propylene to Changchun’s Phenol and Mitsui’s Phenol unit.
Europe
In Q4 2021, European market witnessed a continuous drop in the prices of Cumene following its increased supply from France and Finland following the resumption of several plant operations. Feeble demand for derivatives Phenol and Acetone sent ripples to the prices of Cumene throughout the quarter. On the other hand, extended energy crises and firm values of crude led to a rise in plant operating cost which restricted manufacturers margins as they were unable to transfer the cost pressure upon buyers due to lackluster demand.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The market price of Cumene witnessed a significant hike in the North American region during the third quarter of 2021. In terms of demand, it remained bullish in the US market from the downstream building and construction sectors throughout the quarter. however, surging cost and low availability of upstream raw materials, i.e., benzene and propylene, resulted in a snug supply of the material across the region. Several manufacturing units increased their production rates along with strong inquiries from the Phenol manufacturers. Therefore, the price trend of Cumene witnessed an uprise in the third quarter.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 of 2021, the overall market outlook of Cumene experienced an upward trajectory in the Asia Pacific region followed by consistent demand from the downstream manufacturers. In India, Cumene prices continued to climb up during September, backed by the improvement in demand from the domestic market. Ex-works prices in West India maintained an uptrend by escalating from USD 1489/MT to USD 1762/MT in Q3. Consistent increment in upstream Benzene prices during the quarter pressured Cumene plant operations, which also affected its downstream Acetone and Phenol supplies. Additionally, improved industrial activities in the country with effective decline in new pandemic cases provided firmness in offtakes by downstream users.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2021, some tightness in Cumene supplies was observed in the European region which was backed by bullish demand from the downstream construction and paint and coatings industry. The price chart of Cumene experienced an uptrend in Q3 which was compelled by the tight supply of raw materials and global inflation in upstream Benzene. Demand remained healthy in Q3 from the downstream Phenol producers as offtakes improved QoQ from the end-consumers.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
In the second quarter of 2021, Cumene supplies in North America improved owing to the pick-up in manufacturing activities after the industry recovered from the devastating impacts of the polar winter storm Uri. Several manufacturing facilities ramped up the production rates along with strong enquiries from the Phenol manufacturers. Downstream demand remained robust amidst seasonal hike in enquiries for Cumene derivatives from the building and construction sector. Taking cues from the global surge in raw material rates, the prices gained in the first half and then stabilized in the latter half of the second quarter. Cumene FOB Texas discussions were heard around USD 1810 per tonne in June.
Asia Pacific
The Cumene demand outlook in Asia Pacific region showcased mixed sentiments during the second quarter of 2021, as several downstream Phenol manufacturing units were on a turnaround during the May-June period. The turnaround of South Korean Kumho P&B line 3 and Mitsui Chemical’s Phenol unit in Japan proportionally impacted the offtakes of the Northeast Asian region. Whereas despite the second wave of COVID in India, the Cumene market remained balanced. Cumene prices in India maintained an uptrend, with price discussions in June hovering around USD 1292 per tonne.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2021, Cumene supplies in the European region remained tight due to turnarounds at several manufacturing facilities in the first half of the quarter. However, several plants resumed operations with better rates in the later half due to rising import demand from the US. Downstream demand observed marked uptrend from the construction sector which led to surge in offtakes from the paints and coatings industry. Cumene prices showed strong gains during the quarter buoyed by the tight supply and global inflation in upstream Benzene.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
During the first quarter of 2021, Cumene supplies were tight, however during the first half of Q1 the market lost balanced in all prospects due to the severe freeze weather conditions in the US gulf region led to the plant outages is several major facilities, triggering supply shortages of feedstock Benzene. The demand of Cumene slumped amid the damages occurred in plants due to the polar winter storm which shut down several Phenol and Acetone units for several weeks in a row. The spot buyers struggled in strong competition to procure Cumene stocks in domestic as well as overseas market in middle of surged prices in the North American region.
Asia-Pacific
The supplies in Asia Pacific, during the first quarter remained tight since several major plants went for maintenance turnaround and were operating at low efficiencies due to feedstock shortages. ENEOS Corp production plant in the Miyagi prefecture, Japan shut down its aromatics unit for several weeks due to the 6.1 magnitude earthquake in February, followed by the low inventories levels after some plants went for turnaround during the Chinese lunar new year holidays. The demand was driven by the restocking practices to fill the inventories, followed by surged consumption from the Phenol-Acetone manufacturers. High demand and sluggish supplies throughout the quarter hiked the prices of Cumene in India which were assessed around USD 1202/ton.
Europe
The supplies of Cumene in the European region remained constrained in first half of Q1, as the several plants reduced their production due to the limited availability of the feedstock as the industrial and commercial activities were restricted amid the lockdown in several region. The supplies were further dented by reduced imports from the USA due to plant outages in several producing facilities. The demand however surged from the downstream sector as the Borealis acetone and phenol unit ended their turnaround during ending of previous quarter. Widened supply-demand gap led to surge in the prices of Cumene throughout the European region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2020
North America
Production rates showed slight recovery from the spate of seasonal Hurricanes and pandemic-induced lockdowns. Outlook remained hindered due to soft demand for the derivative Acetone while Phenol derivatives awaited the much-needed revival in the key automotive and construction sectors. While demand outlook remained stable for largely the entire quarter, Cumene supplies were largely affected by constraints from the upstream refinery-grade propylene (RGP) and Benzene. Prices reported an uptrend on the back of strong Benzene due to a range of factors, including low imports from South Korea and depressed refinery operating rates. Major US producers of Cumene are CITGO, INEOS Phenol, Marathon and Shell.
Asia
Cumene supply remained balanced in the fourth quarter of 2020, pressured under subdued demand from the downstream Acetone and Phenol manufacturers. However, prices showed a significant QoQ rise with escalating crude futures and rising optimism over the news of roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines and an anticipated economic rebound in China and India. An upward pressure on the pricing curve was further supported by raw material pass-through following a net increment observed in feedstocks Benzene and Propylene. Ex-Depot prices in India jumped from USD 1049 per tonne levels in October to USD 1090 per tonne levels in December. Supply remained short in South Korea as LG Chem shut its 400 KTPA Cumene plant after its Yosu cracker complex caught fire early in November.
Europe
As the economic recovery took hold in Europe during Q4, Cumene demand witnessed considerable growth. However, import volumes remained restricted, refraining to show any major movement before the first quarter amid rising fears of extended lockdowns over the new coronavirus variant. Sentiments were risen as the news of vaccine distribution hit the downstream markets. Supply lengthened by the end of the quarter as Borealis declared force majeure at its Phenol and Acetone production site in Finland. With no major turnarounds expected in the Cumene production units during the first half of 2021, the European Cumene market is likely to stay amply supplied in the near term.
