Asian Polycarbonate Market Faces Ongoing Stagnation in November as Demand Remains Tepid

The Asian Polycarbonate (PC) market witnessed continued stagnation through the first half of November 2024, with spot prices showing narrow declines, which dipped below pre-holiday levels. This trend is a result of a pronounced supply-demand imbalance driven by elevated production rates, stabilized raw material costs, and ongoing challenges in downstream demand.

On the supply side, Chinese PC production has remained consistently high, with a weekly output increasing significantly. Although there were minor fluctuations, the average operating rate in the industry only shifted slightly, as maintenance began at Cangzhou Dahua in China. Despite this slight reduction, ample on-site supply has continued to keep the market oversupplied, pressuring PC manufacturers to keep prices low and preventing any significant upward movement during the first two weeks of November 2024.

The raw material landscape for PC production has remained relatively stable in early November, especially in the bisphenol A market. The Asian bisphenol A prices stopped their previous decline, reaching a stable phase with limited impact on overall PC production costs. Prices of phenol and acetone, direct precursors of bisphenol A, have also shown weak but steady performance, providing only moderate support to the PC market.

Demand for PC has also failed to provide any substantial support, with end-market consumption remaining tepid. The traditional peak season, commonly referred to as the "Golden September and silver October," did not bring the expected increase in demand, as downstream buyers continued to exercise caution, resisting higher-priced PC goods. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s bidding prices have fallen, contributing to the prevailing market uncertainty and reinforcing a wait-and-see approach among buyers. Load recovery at downstream manufacturing facilities has been minimal, with production running primarily on maintenance supplies rather than increased stockpiling or new purchasing. This lack of significant recovery has made it difficult for the PC market to find solid ground, keeping spot prices from stabilizing at a higher level.

As per ChemAnalyst, the PC market may continue to face downward pressure. The Asian PC market navigates weakly through November 2024, as the supply-demand imbalance is likely to remain a critical challenge. With a high supply volume, stable but unsupportive raw material costs, and subdued demand from downstream sectors, the PC market appears unlikely to revive from its current low-price trend. In summary, while the PC market has managed to avoid major price declines, its prolonged stagnancy reflects the enduring challenges of oversupply and limited demand support, with prices at risk of further declines as 2024 progresses.