According to the latest assessment by ChemAnalyst, Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) prices remained steady despite weaker demand trends. Market participants have adopted a cautious approach, closely monitoring macroeconomic conditions and industrial procurement trends. Reduced production, an oversupplied market, and weakening consumption have supported buyers' sentiment, though suppliers are considering price hikes, potentially impacting export volumes and availability. ChemAnalyst’s disruption tracker indicates that suppliers are strategically tightening output to align with sluggish demand.

Supply-side dynamics show continued tightening efforts. Japanese producers have maintained steady VAM production levels, while several Chinese suppliers have kept their plants offline to manage oversupply. Chinese distributors have raised their VAM quotations for overseas buyers, suggesting increased buying interest within the APAC region. However, industry sources from Japan and Singapore attributed the recent rise in VAM prices not to improved demand but to geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel.

Iran’s influence on the methanol market—a critical feedstock for VAM—has become increasingly apparent. Since the onset of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, methanol spot prices have surged. Despite some easing in geopolitical tensions, the spot vs contract price differential in Northeast Asia widened last week. Iranian suppliers have reportedly reduced contract prices in an effort to sustain revenues. Meanwhile, upstream acetic acid and ethylene prices have eased, providing VAM producers with improved profit margins.

Demand for VAM remains stable yet subdued, with a large portion driven by the Ethylene Vinyl Acetate (EVA) market. EVA prices have increased as distributors pass on higher costs amid tight supply conditions. Hanwha’s EVA production continues at reduced levels, further tightening supply. Similarly, other key suppliers, such as Lotte, have kept production restrained in Northeast Asia, contributing to limited market gains despite production losses in September.

Demand from downstream sectors, including adhesives, paints, and coatings, remains weak. Distributors in these segments have raised prices for end-users, passing through supply costs despite the demand slowdown. Meanwhile, Chinese government stimulus efforts—such as mortgage cost reductions—have enabled distributors to increase margins and maintain price stability across Northeast Asia.

ChemAnalyst forecasts a bullish VAM market for late October and early November, driven by rising demand from China and ASEAN markets. While supply gluts in Northeast Asia persist, the temporary disruptions in the U.S. market due to elections may offset some supply pressures. Additionally, the expected recovery in EVA demand, fueled by seasonal festivities, is likely to lend support to the overall VAM market in the coming months.