For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The Q4 2024 price trend for VAM in the North America region was characterized by a downward trajectory driven by a confluence of factors. Weakening demand from key downstream sectors such as adhesives, coatings, and packaging, coupled with declining exports to Latin America, exerted significant downward pressure on prices.
The impact of Hurricane Helene and Francine on natural gas plants led to a temporary increase in acetic acid prices, but this effect was short-lived as oversupply in the market and reduced demand ultimately prevailed. Production slowdowns due to labor challenges and capacity utilization issues further contributed to the bearish market sentiment.
While the construction sector showed some signs of resilience, high interest rates and economic uncertainty continued to weigh on overall demand. As a result, VAM prices experienced a steady decline throughout the quarter, reflecting the prevailing weakness in the market. Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for further economic slowdown added to the overall bearish sentiment.
APAC
During the fourth quarter of 2024, the price trend for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in the APAC region was characterized by initial stability followed by a period of decline and subsequent stabilization. The quarter began with stable prices despite rising feedstock acetic acid costs. However, the market witnessed a decline in prices in October due to oversupply, increased material inflows from Northeast Asia and Malaysia, and weak demand from downstream sectors like unsaturated resins and construction sector. This downward trend continued in November with further price declines driven by persistent weak demand, increased EVA production in Northeast Asia, and ample inventory levels. However, the vinyl acetate monomer market witnessed a slight recovery in early December with a marginal price increase supported by improved buying activity ahead of the year-end and adjustments in production rates by key manufacturers. The quarter concluded with stable prices in late December, reflecting a balance between rising raw material costs and weak demand from downstream industries.
Europe
The Q4 2024 price trend for VAM in the Europe region was characterized by a predominantly bearish trajectory, driven by a confluence of factors. Weak demand from key downstream sectors like paints, coatings, and adhesives, coupled with subdued economic activity across Europe, exerted significant downward pressure on prices. While some suppliers attempted to raise prices for polyvinyl acetate-based products, these efforts were met with limited success due to sluggish downstream demand and cautious buying behavior. The impact of U.S. production disruptions was minimal on the European market, as weak demand and reduced imports already limited price volatility. The market faced challenges from reduced demand from overseas markets, particularly Latin America, and ongoing economic uncertainties, including the impact of the U.S. elections. This combination of factors, coupled with rising energy costs and the looming threat of a global recession, resulted in a gradual decline in VAM prices throughout the quarter, with only minor periods of stabilization.
MEA
The Q4 2024 price trend for VAM in the MEA region was characterized by a period of initial stability followed by a period of subdued demand and slight price declines. The quarter began with stable prices despite rising feedstock costs. However, the market witnessed a decline in prices in October due to weak demand from downstream sectors, particularly in India, and increased supply from China. Geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf region further complicated the market by disrupting supply chains and impacting shipping routes. While Saudi producers successfully rerouted shipments to Southeast Asia, Indian importers faced challenges in securing consistent supplies. This, coupled with oversupply in the region and subdued construction activity, led to a gradual decline in VAM prices. The quarter concluded with stable but subdued prices in December, reflecting a balance between rising raw material costs and weak demand from downstream industries. Moreover, the impact of rising energy costs on production costs added further pressure on VAM prices throughout the quarter.
South America
The Q4 2024 price trend for VAM in the South America region was characterized by a predominantly bearish trajectory, driven by a confluence of factors. Weakening demand from key downstream sectors like construction and consumer goods, coupled with subdued economic activity across the region, exerted significant downward pressure on prices. The impact of tariffs on U.S. polymer imports had limited effect on bolstering domestic production, as high interest rates and inflation concerns dampened consumer and industrial confidence. Reduced investment in key sectors like construction and manufacturing further contributed to suppressed demand. While some support for VAM usage persisted from repair and maintenance activities in infrastructure projects, it was insufficient to offset the broader economic challenges. Furthermore, the ongoing energy crisis and its impact on production costs across the region added another layer of pressure on VAM prices throughout the quarter, resulting in a gradual decline and a generally pessimistic market outlook.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region witnessed stable prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM), with no significant changes observed. Various factors influenced market prices, including stable supply dynamics, moderate demand conditions, and consistent pricing trends in upstream materials like ethylene and acetic acid. The stability in VAM prices was also supported by balanced inventory levels and subdued trading activities.
In Mexico, the pricing landscape experienced more fluctuations compared to other regions, with varying demand patterns and supply challenges impacting price changes. The quarter end’s price in Mexico reflected a 21% increase from the period last year, indicating a significant price growth over time due to multiple force majeure undertaken by Celanese. However, the percentage change from the previous quarter’s ending price in 2024 shows a decline of 3.5%.
The prices in the quarter showed largely a stable trend with price revisions upwards due to depreciating dollar, while the quarter ended with price drop of 3%, signifying a period of price stabilization and oversupply. The quarter-ending price for Vinyl Acetate Monomer CFR Veracruz in Mexico stood at USD 1325/MT, highlighting the overall stable pricing environment in the region.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in the APAC region experienced a decline in prices with Singapore being the most affected. By the end of September, prices had decreased by 11% compared to the same quarter last year, highlighting a deflationary trend driven by weakened construction demand. Several factors contributed to this downward pricing movement, including oversupply, declining demand, and freight challenges, which discouraged exports and led to increased shipping costs. Additionally, lower production levels, container shortages, and reduced shipping activities added further pressure on prices. In Singapore, the pricing environment remained negative throughout the quarter, with a cumulative drop of 1.2% by the end of the third quarter. China’s real estate slump weighed on Vinyl Acetate demand in the region, while EVA production driven by Japan and Korea for semiconductors and other electronics packaging solutions eased the oversupply. Multiple plants being taken offline this quarter in China. The first half of the quarter saw a slower rate of decline compared to the second half, as oversupply worsened due to weakened demand from Asia. Overall, the pricing environment in Singapore for VAM in Q3 2024 was characterized by a gradual decline, influenced by a combination of market factors and logistical challenges, weaker demand.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European region experienced stable prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM), with no significant fluctuations. This stability was influenced by several factors, including steady supply dynamics, moderate demand conditions, and consistent pricing trends in upstream materials such as ethylene and acetic acid. The balance in VAM prices was further supported by maintained inventory levels and subdued trading activities. In Germany, however, the pricing landscape saw more fluctuations compared to other regions, with shifting demand patterns and supply challenges driving price changes. By the end of the quarter, prices in Germany had increased by 34% compared to the same period last year, reflecting considerable price growth, partly due to multiple force majeure incidents involving Celanese. Despite this, prices declined by 3.3% compared to the previous quarter’s end in 2024. Overall, the quarter showed a largely stable trend with some upward price revisions due to a weakening dollar, although prices dropped by 3% at the quarter's close, indicating price stabilization and oversupply.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in the MEA region experienced a significant decline in prices, with Saudi Arabia being the most affected by these price changes. The quarter’s ending price recorded around 30th September saw a decrement of 18% compared to the same quarter last year, illustrating the deflationary trend driven by subdued construction end-use. Various factors influenced this downward pricing trajectory. The market was affected by oversupply, weakening demand, and freight challenges, which discouraged exports and led to high freight charges. Additionally, lower production levels, container shortages, and reduced shipping activities contributed to the pricing pressure. Within Saudi Arabia, the pricing environment remained negative throughout the quarter, a cumulative drop at the end of the third quarter hit 7%. The quarter’s first half saw the price drop at slower pace than the second part as oversupply intensified, driven by weaker Asian demand. The quarter-ending price for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 780/MT, reflecting the continued downward trend. Overall, the pricing environment in Saudi Arabia for VAM in Q3 2024 was marked by a consistent decrease, influenced by a combination of market factors and external challenges.
Latin America
In Q3 2024, the South America region witnessed stable prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM), with significant factors influencing the market. Stable supply conditions and moderate demand levels contributed to the overall price stability. High methanol and acetic acid prices globally kept VAM prices up, while recovery in the construction sector and easing mortgages hinted at potential future demand improvements. Seasonal trends, such as the easing of crude prices post the Hurricane season and maintenance at production units, also played a role in maintaining price stability. Brazil, experiencing the most significant price changes saw a 22% increase in the quarter end’s price assessed around 30th September from the same quarter last year. However, the quarter-on-quarter change was a modest 2% drop, indicating relative price stability. The quarter-ending price of USD 1385/MT for Vinyl Acetate Monomer CFR Santos in Brazil reflects the overall stable pricing environment observed throughout Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in North America exhibited a mixed pricing trajectory, driven by multiple converging factors. Notably, the region grappled with subdued demand, exacerbated by slowing construction activities and the weakening of downstream markets such as adhesives and sealants. Additionally, a moderate supply environment contributed to the bearish sentiment, as inventory levels remained ample due to pre-emptive production increases to counter potential supply disruptions from seasonal hurricanes. This oversupply, coupled with decreased export demand from Asia, further pressured prices downward.
In the USA, where the most significant price fluctuations were observed, the market revealed a consistent declining trend throughout the quarter. The onset of the hurricane season led to heightened inventory levels, which, combined with Celanese’s force majeure, initially injected some volatility into the market. However, as the quarter progressed, demand waned, particularly in the construction sector, which saw no substantial gains in employment since March, reflecting a sluggish market. The alignment of spot and contract prices, coupled with the Federal Reserve's unchanged interest rates, also played a role in tempering demand, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
Seasonal factors, including the Memorial Day celebrations and anticipatory stocking ahead of hurricane season, initially pushed prices up, but subsequent de-stocking activities created a downward pressure. Pricing data shows that the prices remained 24% higher since the beginning of 2024, while Q1 prices peaked in the last week of March as major deliveries were scheduled then. Q2 prices peaked at the end of May, when freight charges reached historical highs on US-APAC route. Comparing the first and second halves of Q2 2024, the price decline was more pronounced in the second half while the first half remained relatively stable. Celanese declared FM by the end of the quarter as the quarter concluded, VAM prices stood at USD 1290/MT FOB New York, depicting a clear negative pricing environment throughout the period.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in the APAC region experienced a mixed pricing trend. Significant factors contributing to this decline included an oversupply scenario exacerbated by high inventory levels, reduced export sentiment due to elevated freight costs, and sluggish demand from key markets like Europe and the USA. Production rates were curbed across multiple APAC plants, particularly those in Southeast and Northeast Asia, in response to these adverse market conditions. Additionally, cost support from upstream acetic acid weakened, further intensifying the bearish sentiment in the VAM market. Focusing exclusively on Japan, which underwent the most significant price fluctuations, the trends were clearly reflective of seasonality and market oversupply. The overall trends were predominantly bearish, driven by the high inventory levels and limited export opportunities. Moreover, the seasonal impact of the monsoon in APAC and the autumn in Europe contributed to the subdued demand. The correlation of these factors led to a 9% drop accumulated at the end of the quarter, while the YEAR-TO-DATE price comparison recorded a 9% rise. Comparing the first and second half of the quarter, the price fall remained more pronounced in the second half of Q2.
By the quarter's end, VAM prices in Japan settled at USD 910/MT FOB Jurong Island, underscoring a negative pricing environment throughout Q2 2024. This consistent downward trajectory highlights the challenging market dynamics and the ongoing struggles within the VAM industry in the APAC region.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market has experienced a firmness in prices due to several significant factors impacting supply and demand dynamics. The primary driver has been the persistent supply constraints following force majeure events by major producers in the US, which restricted the flow of essential feedstocks like ethylene and acetic acid. Although operations have normalized, the resultant tightness in supply chains and higher contract prices have continued to exert upward pressure on VAM prices. Additionally, expectations of lower inflation and looser credit in the latter half of the year have spurred a recovery in domestic and export markets for polyvinyl acetate (PVAc), a key derivative of VAM, further bolstering prices. Germany, in particular, has witnessed the most significant price movements, reflecting broader European market trends. Q2 began with prices recording 30% gains over the first week of January prices. This surge can be attributed to increased demand from the construction and furniture sectors, coupled with supply chain disruptions caused by severe weather events and logistical delays at European ports. However, Q2 saw prices peaking in the mid of the quarter due to higher deliveries scheduled, heightened geopolitical tensions and Celanese declaring force Majeure for the Western hemisphere. Overall, the pricing environment for VAM in Europe during Q2 2024 has been decidedly positive, driven by robust demand and constrained supply. The latest quarter-ending price for VAM FD Hamburg in Germany stands at USD 1330/MT, reflecting the continuous upward trajectory of the market.
MEA
In the second quarter of 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in the MEA region experienced a mixed trajectory. Several critical factors influenced these price fluctuations, including a general oversupply in the market, high inventories, and subdued demand from key regions. The elevated production capacities and operational efficiencies achieved by major producers further intensified the downward pressure on prices. Additionally, macroeconomic challenges such as geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating energy prices contributed to this persistent negative price sentiment. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the most substantial price changes were noted here. The Saudi VAM market faced significant pricing headwinds due to intense summer heat and seasonal festivities that curtailed operational hours and demand alike. This seasonality, combined with a stabilization in domestic construction demand, created a moderating influence on VAM prices. The correlation between the oversupply situation and reduced demand from major importing markets exacerbated the downward trend. The overall trend revealed a mixed picture, with prices recovering only in the latter half. When compared to early January prices, VAM prices remained largely elevated at the beginning of Q2. As Q2 progressed, prices plunged to the quarter low by the middle of May. Furthermore, a comparative analysis within the quarter highlighted that the prices recovered in the second half of Q2 owing to increment in deliveries, price support from the upstream methanol and acetic acid cost. By the end of the quarter, the price settled at USD 850/MT for VAM FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia. This consistent decline indicates a negative pricing environment, primarily driven by market oversupply and demand fluctuations amidst strategic production decisions and geopolitical influences.
Latin America
In Q2 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in Latin America exhibited a mixed pricing trajectory, driven by multiple converging factors. Notably, the region grappled with subdued demand, exacerbated by slowing construction activities and the weakening of downstream markets such as adhesives and sealants. Additionally, a moderate supply environment contributed to the bearish sentiment, as inventory levels remained ample due to pre-emptive production increases to counter potential supply disruptions from seasonal hurricanes. This oversupply, coupled with decreased export demand from Asia, further pressured prices downward. In Brazil, where the most significant price fluctuations were observed, the market revealed a consistent declining trend throughout the quarter. The onset of Winter season, high rainfall in Sau Paulo regions kept the production levels down, which, combined with Celanese’s force majeure, initially injected some volatility into the market. However, as the quarter progressed, demand waned, particularly in the construction sector, which saw no substantial gains in employment since March, reflecting a sluggish market. The alignment of spot and contract prices, coupled with the COPOM unchanged interest rates, also played a role in tempering demand, leading to a bearish market sentiment. Seasonal factors, including the Memorial Day celebrations and anticipatory stocking ahead of hurricane season in US, initially pushed prices up, but subsequent de-stocking activities created a downward pressure. Year-to-date pricing data shows that the prices remained 24% higher since the beginning of 2024, while Q1 prices peaked in the last week of March as major deliveries were scheduled then. Q2 prices peaked at the end of May, when freight charges reached historical highs on US-APAC route. Comparing the first and second halves of Q2 2024, the price decline was more pronounced in the second half due to flooding in Southern Brazil while the first half remained relatively stable. Celanese declared FM by the end of the quarter as the quarter concluded, VAM prices stood at USD 1370/MT CFR Santos, depicting a clear negative pricing environment throughout the period.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in the North America region. Several factors have influenced the market prices during this period. Limited export supplies and ongoing domestic stockpiling have contributed to a tightening of the market. Additionally, the declaration of Force Majeure by major producers such as LyondellBasell has further tightened the supply chain. This has led to a surge in orders from Europe, Asia, and Latin America. In Mexico, demand for VAM and its derivatives has remained robust, particularly in the construction sector due to "nearshoring" and other commercial projects.
Overall, the trend for VAM prices in the North America region has been increasing. The quarter-ending price for VAM in Mexico was recorded at USD 1350/MT CFR Veracruz, reflecting the upward price movement. Comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the same quarter last year, there has been a significant percentage change in prices. Additionally, there has been a 13% increase in prices from the previous quarter in 2024.
In conclusion, the pricing environment for VAM in the North America region during the first quarter of 2024 has been positive, with prices steadily increasing. The factors driving this increase include limited export supplies, domestic stockpiling, and strong demand in the construction sector.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in the European region. Several factors have influenced the market prices during this period. Limited import supplies and ongoing domestic stockpiling have contributed to a tightening of the market. Supply disruption has caused container shortages throughout the globe. This has led to a surge in orders from Europe, Asia, and Latin America. In Italy and Netherlands, demand for VAM and its derivatives has remained robust, due to continuous government support through super-bonus and other incentives into the calendar year 2024.
Overall, the trend for VAM prices in the North America region has been increasing. The quarter-ending price for VAM in Germany was recorded around USD 1300/MT for a US delivery, reflecting the upward price movement. Comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the same quarter last year, there has been a significant percentage change in prices. Additionally, there has been a 12% increase in prices from the previous quarter in 2024.
In conclusion, the pricing environment for VAM in the European region during the first quarter of 2024 has been positive, with prices steadily increasing. The factors driving this increase include limited export supplies, domestic stockpiling, and strong demand in the adhesives and packaging end-use.
Asia Pacific
The Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in Singapore experienced a bullish first week of February 2024, driven by safety stocking and festivities in East Asia. Tightening supply due to feedstock shortages and plant shutdowns further propelled prices. However, the market stabilized in the following weeks.
VAM prices initially rose due to a combination of factors. Safety stocking in East Asia, coupled with upstream supply constraints for acetic acid and methanol, tightened the market. Additionally, rising demand from the European export market and a strong performance in the timber sector contributed to the price increase. However, the market stabilized by the third week of February as cooling demand and feedstock prices offset earlier pressures.
There were ongoing supply chain challenges, particularly container shortages in the Middle East. This limited exports and contributed to higher shipping costs. Force Majeure events at major producers like LyondellBasell further impacted global VAM and Acetic Acid prices. Despite these disruptions, the Singapore VAM market displayed resilience. End-use construction demand remained consistent, and downstream industries like electronics and semiconductors showed signs of recovery. However, uncertainties surrounding global inflation and export market sentiment remained.
Middle East and Africa
The Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in Saudi Arabia experienced a bullish run in the first quarter of FY24-25. Prices rose steadily, driven by a combination of factors. Global supply tightened due to force majeure events, maintenance shutdowns, and vessel shortages. Additionally, strong Chinese demand and safety stocking practices across the globe further pressured supply. Feedstock shortages and lower production output due to adverse weather conditions further limited supply. Despite this, international VAM producers ran units at full capacity to meet the elevated demand, particularly from the construction sector in Saudi Arabia due to the NEOM project ramping up. Indian markets remained reliant on Saudi supplies despite container shortages.
Rising raw material costs and high demand, fueled by exports to Europe and Asia, contributed to the price increases. Supply chain disruptions caused by production stoppages further impacted VAM and Acetic Acid prices globally. However, a positive outlook emerged with a recovery in construction materials and adhesives demand in Southeast Asia and Europe.
The second quarter is expected to see moderate supply levels with rising demand for VAM. Recovering construction activities in China and Southeast Asia, along with a surge in solar module packaging needs in China, are driving demand. Contract negotiations are currently underway, favoring suppliers due to tight supply. While spot prices might decline due to the off-season, contract prices are likely to rise due to strong demand and interest rate cuts. Overall, the VAM market in Saudi Arabia is poised for continued growth in the near future.
