For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region witnessed stable prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM), with no significant changes observed. Various factors influenced market prices, including stable supply dynamics, moderate demand conditions, and consistent pricing trends in upstream materials like ethylene and acetic acid. The stability in VAM prices was also supported by balanced inventory levels and subdued trading activities.
In Mexico, the pricing landscape experienced more fluctuations compared to other regions, with varying demand patterns and supply challenges impacting price changes. The quarter end’s price in Mexico reflected a 21% increase from the period last year, indicating a significant price growth over time due to multiple force majeure undertaken by Celanese. However, the percentage change from the previous quarter’s ending price in 2024 shows a decline of 3.5%.
The prices in the quarter showed largely a stable trend with price revisions upwards due to depreciating dollar, while the quarter ended with price drop of 3%, signifying a period of price stabilization and oversupply. The quarter-ending price for Vinyl Acetate Monomer CFR Veracruz in Mexico stood at USD 1325/MT, highlighting the overall stable pricing environment in the region.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in the APAC region experienced a decline in prices with Singapore being the most affected. By the end of September, prices had decreased by 11% compared to the same quarter last year, highlighting a deflationary trend driven by weakened construction demand. Several factors contributed to this downward pricing movement, including oversupply, declining demand, and freight challenges, which discouraged exports and led to increased shipping costs. Additionally, lower production levels, container shortages, and reduced shipping activities added further pressure on prices. In Singapore, the pricing environment remained negative throughout the quarter, with a cumulative drop of 1.2% by the end of the third quarter. China’s real estate slump weighed on Vinyl Acetate demand in the region, while EVA production driven by Japan and Korea for semiconductors and other electronics packaging solutions eased the oversupply. Multiple plants being taken offline this quarter in China. The first half of the quarter saw a slower rate of decline compared to the second half, as oversupply worsened due to weakened demand from Asia. Overall, the pricing environment in Singapore for VAM in Q3 2024 was characterized by a gradual decline, influenced by a combination of market factors and logistical challenges, weaker demand.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European region experienced stable prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM), with no significant fluctuations. This stability was influenced by several factors, including steady supply dynamics, moderate demand conditions, and consistent pricing trends in upstream materials such as ethylene and acetic acid. The balance in VAM prices was further supported by maintained inventory levels and subdued trading activities. In Germany, however, the pricing landscape saw more fluctuations compared to other regions, with shifting demand patterns and supply challenges driving price changes. By the end of the quarter, prices in Germany had increased by 34% compared to the same period last year, reflecting considerable price growth, partly due to multiple force majeure incidents involving Celanese. Despite this, prices declined by 3.3% compared to the previous quarter’s end in 2024. Overall, the quarter showed a largely stable trend with some upward price revisions due to a weakening dollar, although prices dropped by 3% at the quarter's close, indicating price stabilization and oversupply.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in the MEA region experienced a significant decline in prices, with Saudi Arabia being the most affected by these price changes. The quarter’s ending price recorded around 30th September saw a decrement of 18% compared to the same quarter last year, illustrating the deflationary trend driven by subdued construction end-use. Various factors influenced this downward pricing trajectory. The market was affected by oversupply, weakening demand, and freight challenges, which discouraged exports and led to high freight charges. Additionally, lower production levels, container shortages, and reduced shipping activities contributed to the pricing pressure. Within Saudi Arabia, the pricing environment remained negative throughout the quarter, a cumulative drop at the end of the third quarter hit 7%. The quarter’s first half saw the price drop at slower pace than the second part as oversupply intensified, driven by weaker Asian demand. The quarter-ending price for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 780/MT, reflecting the continued downward trend. Overall, the pricing environment in Saudi Arabia for VAM in Q3 2024 was marked by a consistent decrease, influenced by a combination of market factors and external challenges.
Latin America
In Q3 2024, the South America region witnessed stable prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM), with significant factors influencing the market. Stable supply conditions and moderate demand levels contributed to the overall price stability. High methanol and acetic acid prices globally kept VAM prices up, while recovery in the construction sector and easing mortgages hinted at potential future demand improvements. Seasonal trends, such as the easing of crude prices post the Hurricane season and maintenance at production units, also played a role in maintaining price stability. Brazil, experiencing the most significant price changes saw a 22% increase in the quarter end’s price assessed around 30th September from the same quarter last year. However, the quarter-on-quarter change was a modest 2% drop, indicating relative price stability. The quarter-ending price of USD 1385/MT for Vinyl Acetate Monomer CFR Santos in Brazil reflects the overall stable pricing environment observed throughout Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in North America exhibited a mixed pricing trajectory, driven by multiple converging factors. Notably, the region grappled with subdued demand, exacerbated by slowing construction activities and the weakening of downstream markets such as adhesives and sealants. Additionally, a moderate supply environment contributed to the bearish sentiment, as inventory levels remained ample due to pre-emptive production increases to counter potential supply disruptions from seasonal hurricanes. This oversupply, coupled with decreased export demand from Asia, further pressured prices downward.
In the USA, where the most significant price fluctuations were observed, the market revealed a consistent declining trend throughout the quarter. The onset of the hurricane season led to heightened inventory levels, which, combined with Celanese’s force majeure, initially injected some volatility into the market. However, as the quarter progressed, demand waned, particularly in the construction sector, which saw no substantial gains in employment since March, reflecting a sluggish market. The alignment of spot and contract prices, coupled with the Federal Reserve's unchanged interest rates, also played a role in tempering demand, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
Seasonal factors, including the Memorial Day celebrations and anticipatory stocking ahead of hurricane season, initially pushed prices up, but subsequent de-stocking activities created a downward pressure. Pricing data shows that the prices remained 24% higher since the beginning of 2024, while Q1 prices peaked in the last week of March as major deliveries were scheduled then. Q2 prices peaked at the end of May, when freight charges reached historical highs on US-APAC route. Comparing the first and second halves of Q2 2024, the price decline was more pronounced in the second half while the first half remained relatively stable. Celanese declared FM by the end of the quarter as the quarter concluded, VAM prices stood at USD 1290/MT FOB New York, depicting a clear negative pricing environment throughout the period.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in the APAC region experienced a mixed pricing trend. Significant factors contributing to this decline included an oversupply scenario exacerbated by high inventory levels, reduced export sentiment due to elevated freight costs, and sluggish demand from key markets like Europe and the USA. Production rates were curbed across multiple APAC plants, particularly those in Southeast and Northeast Asia, in response to these adverse market conditions. Additionally, cost support from upstream acetic acid weakened, further intensifying the bearish sentiment in the VAM market. Focusing exclusively on Japan, which underwent the most significant price fluctuations, the trends were clearly reflective of seasonality and market oversupply. The overall trends were predominantly bearish, driven by the high inventory levels and limited export opportunities. Moreover, the seasonal impact of the monsoon in APAC and the autumn in Europe contributed to the subdued demand. The correlation of these factors led to a 9% drop accumulated at the end of the quarter, while the YEAR-TO-DATE price comparison recorded a 9% rise. Comparing the first and second half of the quarter, the price fall remained more pronounced in the second half of Q2.
By the quarter's end, VAM prices in Japan settled at USD 910/MT FOB Jurong Island, underscoring a negative pricing environment throughout Q2 2024. This consistent downward trajectory highlights the challenging market dynamics and the ongoing struggles within the VAM industry in the APAC region.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market has experienced a firmness in prices due to several significant factors impacting supply and demand dynamics. The primary driver has been the persistent supply constraints following force majeure events by major producers in the US, which restricted the flow of essential feedstocks like ethylene and acetic acid. Although operations have normalized, the resultant tightness in supply chains and higher contract prices have continued to exert upward pressure on VAM prices. Additionally, expectations of lower inflation and looser credit in the latter half of the year have spurred a recovery in domestic and export markets for polyvinyl acetate (PVAc), a key derivative of VAM, further bolstering prices. Germany, in particular, has witnessed the most significant price movements, reflecting broader European market trends. Q2 began with prices recording 30% gains over the first week of January prices. This surge can be attributed to increased demand from the construction and furniture sectors, coupled with supply chain disruptions caused by severe weather events and logistical delays at European ports. However, Q2 saw prices peaking in the mid of the quarter due to higher deliveries scheduled, heightened geopolitical tensions and Celanese declaring force Majeure for the Western hemisphere. Overall, the pricing environment for VAM in Europe during Q2 2024 has been decidedly positive, driven by robust demand and constrained supply. The latest quarter-ending price for VAM FD Hamburg in Germany stands at USD 1330/MT, reflecting the continuous upward trajectory of the market.
MEA
In the second quarter of 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in the MEA region experienced a mixed trajectory. Several critical factors influenced these price fluctuations, including a general oversupply in the market, high inventories, and subdued demand from key regions. The elevated production capacities and operational efficiencies achieved by major producers further intensified the downward pressure on prices. Additionally, macroeconomic challenges such as geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating energy prices contributed to this persistent negative price sentiment. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the most substantial price changes were noted here. The Saudi VAM market faced significant pricing headwinds due to intense summer heat and seasonal festivities that curtailed operational hours and demand alike. This seasonality, combined with a stabilization in domestic construction demand, created a moderating influence on VAM prices. The correlation between the oversupply situation and reduced demand from major importing markets exacerbated the downward trend. The overall trend revealed a mixed picture, with prices recovering only in the latter half. When compared to early January prices, VAM prices remained largely elevated at the beginning of Q2. As Q2 progressed, prices plunged to the quarter low by the middle of May. Furthermore, a comparative analysis within the quarter highlighted that the prices recovered in the second half of Q2 owing to increment in deliveries, price support from the upstream methanol and acetic acid cost. By the end of the quarter, the price settled at USD 850/MT for VAM FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia. This consistent decline indicates a negative pricing environment, primarily driven by market oversupply and demand fluctuations amidst strategic production decisions and geopolitical influences.
Latin America
In Q2 2024, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in Latin America exhibited a mixed pricing trajectory, driven by multiple converging factors. Notably, the region grappled with subdued demand, exacerbated by slowing construction activities and the weakening of downstream markets such as adhesives and sealants. Additionally, a moderate supply environment contributed to the bearish sentiment, as inventory levels remained ample due to pre-emptive production increases to counter potential supply disruptions from seasonal hurricanes. This oversupply, coupled with decreased export demand from Asia, further pressured prices downward. In Brazil, where the most significant price fluctuations were observed, the market revealed a consistent declining trend throughout the quarter. The onset of Winter season, high rainfall in Sau Paulo regions kept the production levels down, which, combined with Celanese’s force majeure, initially injected some volatility into the market. However, as the quarter progressed, demand waned, particularly in the construction sector, which saw no substantial gains in employment since March, reflecting a sluggish market. The alignment of spot and contract prices, coupled with the COPOM unchanged interest rates, also played a role in tempering demand, leading to a bearish market sentiment. Seasonal factors, including the Memorial Day celebrations and anticipatory stocking ahead of hurricane season in US, initially pushed prices up, but subsequent de-stocking activities created a downward pressure. Year-to-date pricing data shows that the prices remained 24% higher since the beginning of 2024, while Q1 prices peaked in the last week of March as major deliveries were scheduled then. Q2 prices peaked at the end of May, when freight charges reached historical highs on US-APAC route. Comparing the first and second halves of Q2 2024, the price decline was more pronounced in the second half due to flooding in Southern Brazil while the first half remained relatively stable. Celanese declared FM by the end of the quarter as the quarter concluded, VAM prices stood at USD 1370/MT CFR Santos, depicting a clear negative pricing environment throughout the period.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in the North America region. Several factors have influenced the market prices during this period. Limited export supplies and ongoing domestic stockpiling have contributed to a tightening of the market. Additionally, the declaration of Force Majeure by major producers such as LyondellBasell has further tightened the supply chain. This has led to a surge in orders from Europe, Asia, and Latin America. In Mexico, demand for VAM and its derivatives has remained robust, particularly in the construction sector due to "nearshoring" and other commercial projects.
Overall, the trend for VAM prices in the North America region has been increasing. The quarter-ending price for VAM in Mexico was recorded at USD 1350/MT CFR Veracruz, reflecting the upward price movement. Comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the same quarter last year, there has been a significant percentage change in prices. Additionally, there has been a 13% increase in prices from the previous quarter in 2024.
In conclusion, the pricing environment for VAM in the North America region during the first quarter of 2024 has been positive, with prices steadily increasing. The factors driving this increase include limited export supplies, domestic stockpiling, and strong demand in the construction sector.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing prices for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in the European region. Several factors have influenced the market prices during this period. Limited import supplies and ongoing domestic stockpiling have contributed to a tightening of the market. Supply disruption has caused container shortages throughout the globe. This has led to a surge in orders from Europe, Asia, and Latin America. In Italy and Netherlands, demand for VAM and its derivatives has remained robust, due to continuous government support through super-bonus and other incentives into the calendar year 2024.
Overall, the trend for VAM prices in the North America region has been increasing. The quarter-ending price for VAM in Germany was recorded around USD 1300/MT for a US delivery, reflecting the upward price movement. Comparing the first quarter of 2024 to the same quarter last year, there has been a significant percentage change in prices. Additionally, there has been a 12% increase in prices from the previous quarter in 2024.
In conclusion, the pricing environment for VAM in the European region during the first quarter of 2024 has been positive, with prices steadily increasing. The factors driving this increase include limited export supplies, domestic stockpiling, and strong demand in the adhesives and packaging end-use.
Asia Pacific
The Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in Singapore experienced a bullish first week of February 2024, driven by safety stocking and festivities in East Asia. Tightening supply due to feedstock shortages and plant shutdowns further propelled prices. However, the market stabilized in the following weeks.
VAM prices initially rose due to a combination of factors. Safety stocking in East Asia, coupled with upstream supply constraints for acetic acid and methanol, tightened the market. Additionally, rising demand from the European export market and a strong performance in the timber sector contributed to the price increase. However, the market stabilized by the third week of February as cooling demand and feedstock prices offset earlier pressures.
There were ongoing supply chain challenges, particularly container shortages in the Middle East. This limited exports and contributed to higher shipping costs. Force Majeure events at major producers like LyondellBasell further impacted global VAM and Acetic Acid prices. Despite these disruptions, the Singapore VAM market displayed resilience. End-use construction demand remained consistent, and downstream industries like electronics and semiconductors showed signs of recovery. However, uncertainties surrounding global inflation and export market sentiment remained.
Middle East and Africa
The Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in Saudi Arabia experienced a bullish run in the first quarter of FY24-25. Prices rose steadily, driven by a combination of factors. Global supply tightened due to force majeure events, maintenance shutdowns, and vessel shortages. Additionally, strong Chinese demand and safety stocking practices across the globe further pressured supply. Feedstock shortages and lower production output due to adverse weather conditions further limited supply. Despite this, international VAM producers ran units at full capacity to meet the elevated demand, particularly from the construction sector in Saudi Arabia due to the NEOM project ramping up. Indian markets remained reliant on Saudi supplies despite container shortages.
Rising raw material costs and high demand, fueled by exports to Europe and Asia, contributed to the price increases. Supply chain disruptions caused by production stoppages further impacted VAM and Acetic Acid prices globally. However, a positive outlook emerged with a recovery in construction materials and adhesives demand in Southeast Asia and Europe.
The second quarter is expected to see moderate supply levels with rising demand for VAM. Recovering construction activities in China and Southeast Asia, along with a surge in solar module packaging needs in China, are driving demand. Contract negotiations are currently underway, favoring suppliers due to tight supply. While spot prices might decline due to the off-season, contract prices are likely to rise due to strong demand and interest rate cuts. Overall, the VAM market in Saudi Arabia is poised for continued growth in the near future.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Prices of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) continued their bearish trend throughout the fourth quarter of FY23. A drop of 8% Q-o-Q was observed as LyondellBasell and Celanese undertook significant Force Majeure to control the prices and supply. Feedstock prices stabilized amidst tightening of supply in the quarter.
Ethylene and Acetic Acid prices in North America remained subdued amidst lower demand sentiments and high OPEC+ production and natural gas output. Supply lines continued to be domestic. Energy markets continued their mixed sentiments amidst declining prices providing regional variability in pricing over a short period. Energy prices remained lower than their counterparts in Europe and Asia providing better price point and chemical margins for the domestic producers. Further, market inquiries in US revealed Inflations Reductions Act 2022 continue to provide incentive for the downstream producers to generate stable demand for renewables and automobile parts.
Further, a destocking was also observed in the adhesives and sealant downstream sector as significant oversupply was observed in the market. High inventory of stocks was circulated back in the markets as real estate sector in US, Europe and China remained weak. Tightening of supply affected Mexican and Brazilian prices as Mexican markets showed stable construction demand while Brazilian markets observed uncompetitive dumping by US producers. Festive demand for Vinyl Acetate derivatives remained weak as consumption, though observed Q-o-Q uptick, remained lower than anticipated and Force Majeure continues to tighten supply. With CIF and CFR charges rising largely owing to shortage of shipping containers, prices have started improving by the end of quarter.
Europe
Prices of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) continued their bearish trend throughout the fourth quarter of FY23. A drop of 8% Q-o-Q was observed as LyondellBasell and Celanese undertook significant Force Majeure to control the prices and supply. Feedstock prices stabilized amidst tightening of supply in the quarter. Supply largely remained import dominated especially from USA. Energy markets continued their mixed sentiments amidst declining prices providing regional variability in pricing over a short period. Energy prices remained higher than their counterparts in America and Asia providing better price point and chemical margins for the domestic producers. European Commission’s refurbishment and sustainable energy transition schemes continue to provide stable demand for Vinyl Acetate through paints and adhesives end use segment. Furthermore, marginal uptick in procurement was also observed in the adhesives and sealant downstream sector as tightened supply was observed in the market. Inventory of stocks showed marginal decline as construction chemical procurement in Netherlands, France, Italy showed marginal uptick. Festive demand for Vinyl Acetate derivatives remained weak as consumption, though observed Q-o-Q uptick, remained lower than anticipated and Force Majeure continues to tighten supply. With CIF and CFR charges rising largely owing to shortage of shipping containers, prices have started improving by the end of quarter.
Asia Pacific
Prices of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) showed mixed sentiment throughout the fourth quarter of FY23. Overall prices fell by 12% Q-o-Q by the end of December. In major east Asian markets of China and Japan prices remained bullish in the month of October largely owing to recovery in Chinese manufacturing and improvement in Japan’s exports. Major sectors that contributed to the sustained demand in Q4 included automobiles and renewables. Demand from the construction sector remained weak while Q4FY23 due to seasonality and labor markets tightening in the APAC region. Chinese stimulus had limited success in recovering demand sentiments of Vinyl Acetate Monomer. Indian markets remained largely volatile due to high import dependence and disruptions in supply due to constraints due to monsoonal and cyclonic actions across Asia Pacific. Demand in Indian markets for VAM and VAM derived goods remained lower Y-o-Y basis, a market player revealed due to anticipated weak lower rural demand expectation. Chinese markets undertook destocking pulling down the prices in November and December with prices falling below feedstock in the upstream Methanol and Acetic acid markets. Middle Eastern feedstock supplies especially from Iran to China showed tightening. China continues to improve their operating margins amidst weak Chemical margins across the globe. In Q4 FY23, Indian markets remained subdued largely owing to subdued demand sentiments as downstream EVA derivatives remained subdued as prices remained elevated. By the end of December, CIF and CFR charges to import is showing higher number of orders from North American and Saudi markets to hedge against Suez uncertainty.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Prices of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) continued their bearish trend throughout the third quarter of FY23. A drop of over 40% in Q-o-Q prices was observed. Feedstock prices largely remained stable throughout the quarter, with ethylene prices undertaking a weak bearish trend in the month of July and a strong bullish trend in the month of September 2023. Supply lines continued to be domestic. Energy markets continued their mixed sentiments amidst declining prices, providing regional variability in pricing over a short period. Energy prices remained lower than their counterparts in Europe and Asia, providing better price points and chemical margins for domestic producers. Further, market inquiries in the US revealed that the Inflations Reductions Act 2022 continues to provide an incentive for downstream producers to generate stable demand for renewables and automobile parts. Further, destocking was also observed in the adhesives and sealant downstream sector as significant oversupply was observed in the market. Drop in prices of VAM from the sealant section dominated the pricing sentiments, as observed. A high inventory of stocks was circulated back into the markets as the real estate sector in the US, Europe, and China remained weak. The oversupply situation led to the importing nations of Mexico and Brazil facing similar situations of a large inventory of stocks. Furthermore, stability in prices of downstream Polyvinyl Alcohol is attributed to the transfer of new orders for passenger vehicles to their Mexican subsidiaries of American conglomerates due to Auto Union strikes observed in September 2023. Q4 FY23 forecast expects stability or a gradual bullish trend in the pricing of VAM after reaching the expected price point of demand. As demand improves due to the relaxation of the tight monetary system placed by the US Federal Reserve, prices are expected to inflate.
Asia Pacific
Prices of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) remained bullish throughout the third quarter of FY23. A jump of 50% Q-o-Q was observed after the prices dropped below the pre-covid levels in the second quarter of FY23. In major East Asian markets of China and Japan, prices began their bullish trend as Chinese demand gradually improved in Q3. Major sectors that contributed to the sustained demand in Q3 included automobiles and renewables. Demand from the construction sector remained weak, while green shoots were observed by the end of Q3 FY23 as the Chinese economy rides on the stimulus provided by the government through key rate reduction, fiscal subsidies, etc. One of the major factors for the bullish trend was the rising prices of crude permeating down the acetic acid and ethylene value chains coupled with rising energy prices due to the global coal price rise. Indian markets remained largely volatile due to high import dependence and disruptions in supply due to constraints due to monsoonal and cyclonic actions across the Asia Pacific. Demand in Indian markets for VAM and VAM-derived goods remained lower on a Y-o-Y basis, a market player revealed due to anticipated weak lower rural demand expectations. China's aggressive procurement strategy from the global markets in the month of September forced the rise in prices when major festivals in Asia were around the corner. With the US undertaking destocking operations in the month, China continues to improve its operating margins amidst weak Chemical margins across the globe. Analysts argue that the rising supply of Russian crude at discounted price continue to make Chinese petrochemical margins stable despite declining global prices. In Q4 FY23, it is expected that an oversupply situation of VAM is expected as the US destocked a significant amount of VAM in the global market, with Europe and Asia continuing to be debilitated in economic activities, prices are expected to decline and stabilize at a price point provided crude prices continue their current prices.
Europe
Prices of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) continued their bearish trend throughout the third quarter of FY23. A drop of 30% in Q-o-Q prices was observed. Largely, the supply remained import-driven, especially from North America, reflecting a common trend in pricing across the Atlantic. Economic situations remained largely similar, with high inflationary and recessionary pressures being observed in the European system. A major portion of demand is from Renewables and automobiles. Packaging and retailing saw a decline in the volume of requirements. Inventory was also destocked in the market due to the lower high cost of maintenance. The demand for VAM-derived goods continues to remain lull from the construction sector due to the large inventory of unsold stocks of real estate. Inflated input costs, including feedstock like acetic acid and ethylene, further pose serious challenges. Europe is trying to build up infrastructure in the Eurozone with BASF expanding capacities. Rising energy costs by the end of the quarter due to aggressive US procurement forcing reduction in operating rate pose a serious challenge. Celanese corporation expects a better lift-off in Q3 FY2023 Q-o-Q basis in Europe. According to the corporation, Europe is expected to continue to be the most challenging territory in the coming quarter due to weak seasonal consumption in Q4 with rising energy prices. European Central Bank increased key interest rates again in September, which is further expected to curtail further demand from the packaging domain.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The prices of VAM in the US market have declined across Q2. This was due to declining acetic acid prices throughout Q2. Furthermore, the New rising interest rate in the US market created negative market sentiments in the US. In Addition, there was weak demand from the downstream Polyvinyl Alcohol industry, which subdued VAM market growth in the US. Furthermore, plants were operating at lower rates due to weak demand from the downstream industry, like adhesive. Additionally, there was an adequate inventory level in the market to meet downstream demand. Demand from the international market has been weak across Q2 creating overall negative VAM market sentiments. Furthermore, the plants were operating at normal rates amid weak downstream demand. PMI for the US market has been 49 and 49.60 for the last two months of Q2, indicating a drop in the manufacturing sector for a major part of q2. Thus, as of June, the prices of VAM in the US market were stated at USD 1698/MT FOB Texas.
Asia-Pacific
The prices of VAM in the Chinese market have significantly declined due to weak demand from the downstream paints & coating industry. Moreover, there has been a deflation problem in China as the inflation rate was stated at 0.1 in April, 0.2 in May, and nil in June. The prices of coal in China have declined this was due to imported Australian coal being offered at discounted prices which led to the decrement in input production costs. Furthermore, demand from the international market has declined significantly due to a weak global economic outlook and economic uncertainty, which created an overall pessimistic VAM market view in China. Additionally, the plants were operating at a slower rate due to weak demand from downstream industries like PVOH and EVA. Furthermore, there was an adequate inventory level in the market to meet demand from the downstream industry, and the buyer was hesitant to procure new orders due to constant declining prices. Thus, as of June, the prices were stated at USD 716/MT FOB Dalian.
MEA
The VAM market in Shown a bearish market trend in Q2 as prices declined as there has been a decrement of 42.8% in the prices of VAM as of Q2. This can be explained by declining demand from downstream industries like PVOH and EVA. Moreover, the prices of feedstock acetic acid declined throughout Q2, justifying the drop in the VAM prices. Furthermore, there was a high level of inventory in the market, which led to the seller offering discounts to increase market transactions. Additionally, the crude oil prices decrement, which led to a decrement in input production cost. Furthermore, demand from the international market has declined amid a weak global economic outlook. In Addition, due to continuous significant declining prices, there was hesitance among market players for procurement of huge orders. Similarly, procurement of new orders was needed on a demand basis as there was wait-and-watch sentiment in the market. Thus, as of June end of Q2, the prices of VAM were stated at USD 806/MT.
Europe
VAMsssss prices in Q2 in the German market have shown a bearish trend. This can be attributed to a decline in demand from the downstream paints and coating industry, as well as decreased demand from PVOH and EVA throughout Q2. Additionally, the prices of feedstock acetic acid have also declined, further impacting the prices of VAM in the German market. Furthermore, the rising interest rates and continued high inflation, with rates of 7.16% in April, 6.1% in May, and 6.3% in June, have curbed the purchasing power of consumers in end-use industries. The market has also experienced a flow of cheap imports from the Asian market, resulting in an overflow of inventories and contributing to negative market sentiments, particularly due to declining downstream demand from the construction industry. Moreover, there has been a decrease in market transactions, with buyers offering discounts to increase activity. As of the end of June, the prices of VAM were reported at USD 1361/MT FD Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the North American region, the VAM market experienced a bearish sentiment during the first quarter of 2023, with prices declining due to lower demand from domestic and international markets as well as higher supply levels. The restart of several plants from turnarounds and fewer shutdowns led to an increase in VAM inventories. Additionally, there was a decrease in demand from Polyvinyl Alcohol, Polyvinyl Acetate, and other value chains due to reduced purchasing activities from end-user industries such as adhesives, paints, and coatings. After Federal Reserve increased its interest rates to curb the rising inflation in the country, the price increment in the commodities was not observed in the US. Consequently, the price of VAM dropped to USD 1870/MT FOB New York and USD 1820/MT FOB Texas as of March 31.
Asia- Pacific
During the first quarter of 2023, VAM prices in the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated an overall upward trend. In China, the VAM market had a positive start to the quarter, as market activity picked up following the government's decision to abandon its zero-COVID policy. This resulted in increased demand for the product, primarily due to a rise in procurement from downstream industries such as Polyvinyl Acetate and Polyvinyl Alcohol. Additionally, after the Lunar New Year holiday, market participants restocked the available material. Also, Acetic acid and Ethylene prices continue to rally in the Chinese market, increasing cost support for VAM. In March, there was a slight decrease in prices following a sustained rise because purchasing activities from Asian and European countries toned down amid weakened demand from the paint and coatings industries which resulted in fewer offtakes from the VAM market, leaving market participants to clear their stocks at lower prices. Therefore, the VAM prices for FOB Dalian settled at USD 1200/MT on March 31.
Europe
VAM prices showed fluctuation in the European region during the first quarter of 2023. In the first two months of Q2, the German market saw an overall increase in VAM prices due to higher production costs, lower inventory levels, and increased procurement. Market participants reported improved consumption from downstream paints and coatings and other industries improved, thus increasing the demand pressure on the VAM. Meanwhile, supply chain dynamics remained stable, resulting in normalcy in trading. However, the VAM market showed bearish sentiments in the final month of Q2, and prices decreased due to a drop in feedstock Acetic Acid prices. Additionally, operating rates were reduced in the domestic market owing to fewer offtakes from downstream industries. Moreover, cheaper imports from the Asian market also put downward pressure on VAM prices. Therefore, the price of VAM reached USD 1520/MT FD Hamburg on March 31.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Vinyl Acetate Monomer Prices fell mainly as feedstock Acetic acid prices continued their decline throughout Q4 of 2022, and energy prices stabilized in the US market while imported Vinyl Acetate Monomer prices have also remained comparatively lower than the domestic prices. Production rates remained weak in the wake of stable consumption rates in the domestic market. The cost of production remained stable as Natural gas prices fell while feedstock Acetic acid prices dropped persistently. Meanwhile, imports from Asia pacific region have strengthened amid a decline in freight charges. Demand from downstream Paints & coatings and Adhesives and polymers industry declined as the construction industry witnessed a drop in demand during the ongoing winter. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment continued to remain sluggish in the US market, while demand from the international market also remained stable as Europe continued to face soft consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve continued to tighten the monetary policy to curb inflation.
Asia Pacific
Vinyl Acetate Monomer prices continued their decline during the last quarter of 2022 as the demand dynamics from downstream industries remained sluggish. Buying sentiment in the market has been termed as rigid due to snuck consumption rates and limited queries, as reported by several market participants. Additionally, feedstock Acetic acid prices have remained sluggish, resulting in weak cost pressure on downstream Vinyl Acetate Monomer. Meanwhile, covid lockdowns and the underwhelming performance of the construction industry contributed to soft consumer sentiment and weakened consumption rates.
Europe
During the 4th quarter of 2022, the market sentiment in the European Vinyl Acetate Monomer remained sluggish as the market participants reported limited queries from downstream users, as the West faced sluggish consumption rates owing to soft consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the threat of a recession continues to ease, as reported by several firms. Meanwhile, feedstock Acetic acid prices have dropped in the European continent easing the cost pressure, while imports from the Asia pacific have remained ample, increasing the material available in the European market in the last quarter. Port congestion and labor strikes highlighted the first half of the quarter, which eased during the second half of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the North American region, Vinyl Acetate Monomer prices declined during the third quarter of 2022 due to ample material availability in the domestic market and weak demand from the downstream industries. The performance of the construction industry remained comparatively weak in the third quarter, which limited the consumption rates of Vinyl Acetate Monomer. Meanwhile, the supply chain remained under pressure as the port of Houston and several other ports witnessed port congestions, hampering the trading activities in the region. Furthermore, the decline in feedstock Acetic acid prices eased the cost pressure from downstream Vinyl Acetate Monomer. Thus, after the conclusion of Q3, Vinyl Acetate Monomer prices were assessed at USD 2264 per MT on a FOB basis.
Asia Pacific
Vinyl Acetate Monomer prices sharply declined in the Asia Pacific region as the feedstock prices deteriorated while the demand remained under pressure during the third quarter of 2022. Feedstock Acetic acid prices constantly dropped, which eased the cost pressure while stable to weak demand from downstream industries remained, resulting in soft demand pressure over Vinyl Acetate Monomer. In Northeast Asia, a typhoon-ravaged western Japan and parts of South Korea, hampering port activities. The reduced port movements have increased the transit time, and prolonged shipment time has been reported, which impacted the supply dynamics as the port activities in Asian ports were halted in September. However, weak demand dynamics meant a limited impact of curtailed supply on the Vinyl Acetate Monomer prices. Hence, after the conclusion of Q3, Vinyl Acetate Monomer prices were assessed at USD 1464 per MT FOB Tokyo.
Europe
In the European region, Vinyl Acetate Monomer prices constantly dropped throughout the third quarter of 2022 owing to cheap imports from the US and Singapore, key exporters of VAM globally. Meanwhile, demand from the downstream construction industry remained snug. Traditionally, Q3 has been the peak season of Vinyl Acetate Monomer demand; however, 2022 observed a substantial demand drop as consumer sentiment remained depressed owing to high inflation rates, which intensified the speculations around a European recession after several decades. Furthermore, in terms of domestic production, LyondellBasell announced production cuts during the quarter. Thus, after the conclusion of Q3, VAM prices were assessed at USD 1966 per MT FD Immingham.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
In North America, Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) prices rose steadily during the second quarter of 2022 due to constrained supply and strong downstream demand. VAM prices climbed at the start of April because of rising feedstock Acetic Acid prices, higher demand for paints, adhesives, and textile, and elevated upstream expenses. The prices kept growing due to increased exports to the European nations until the final week of April. The same supply issues persisted in May and raised the price of VAM. Additionally, major manufacturers like Celanese and INEOS issued force majeures on VAM and feedstock Acetic Acid, which worsened the June situation and increased the price of Vinyl Acetate Monomer in North America. The estimated cost of Vinyl Acetate Monomer at FD Hamburg was USD 2600/MT in April, which escalated to USD 2780/MT in June.
APAC
Though the prices of feedstock Acetic Acid were dropping in China during the second quarter of 2022, Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) value increased in the considered period. VAM prices observed a significant inclination of 2.17% between April and June. This price escalation was backed by robust demand from end-user industries such as paints, coating, textile, and adhesives. The assessed price value of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) at FOB Dalian was USD 2300/MT, which increased to USD 2350/MT. The domestic Indian market for Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) experienced downward momentum in the pricing trend of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM). The overflowing inventories and weak downstream demand were the significant factors contributing to the plunge in VAM prices. Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) prices at Ex-Silvassa were USD 2513 MT in June.
Europe
Due to supply limitations and the energy crisis, the market value of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in Europe increased consistently during the second quarter of 2022. The supply of VAM and feedstock acetic acid in the market was limited as significant manufacturers like Lyondell announced force majeures. Additionally, the price of the upstream, Methanol was skyrocketing throughout the same period, raising the already elevated price value of Vinyl Acetate Monomer. Additionally, the market value of VAM in the European nations was further aggravated by rising energy costs and freight fees along with the tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) FD Hamburg prices were USD 2600/MT in April and USD 2750/MT in June, hiked by 5.77%.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In Q1 2022, the Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) price slipped in the first half of the quarter due to weak market sentiments and sufficient product availability. The exports to the European region and Canada were reduced due to the tepid market and inventories' stockpiling. However, in the second half of the quarter, the prices surged and were USD 2680/ton FOB New York. The market was seen to be driven by flooding interest and higher input costs. Downstream adhesive ventures saw development from consumers and businesses as modern exercises quit slacking, bringing about cost climbs. The sales and deals of the significant makers went up with the expansion in its utilization from the purchaser's end. However, spot costs of feedstock Ethylene had expanded given adequate supplies because of max ethane use in wafers. Compared with the previous quarter, the price of the Vinyl Acetate monomer slipped to 6.1%, when compared with the past quarter.
Asia Pacific
In this quarter, the price of VAM in China slipped in the first half, where the prices on Jan 2022 were USD 2291/ton FOB Dalian. Feedstock Ethylene and Acetic acid prices were also reduced due to oversupplies and deteriorating demand in the regional market of China. Weak market sentiments and sufficient product availability resulted in such a trend. Feedstock Acetic acid prices plummeted with oversupply exacerbated. However, in the second half of the quarter, the prices surged to USD 2192/ton FOB Dalian supported by the bullish upstream crude and Naphtha market. Major adhesive producers had also flooded the prices of their products by squeezing profits and robust demand. One of the variables that hinders the development of the adhesive and sealants industry is oil costs and the resulting expansion in raw material costs. Downstream EVA market was also flooded with expanding photovoltaic cells' utilization in solar power generation and agricultural ventures. The costs sneaked past 11.8% in this quarter in China when compared with the previous one. In India, the prices towards the end of the quarter were assessed at USD 2623/ton Ex-Hazira.
Europe
In this quarter, the price of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) remained on the higher end supported by strong market demand and insufficient product availability. Imports from US and other European region increases with high freight cost and transportation cost. Russia-Ukraine conflict surged the price of Natural gas which impacted the prices in the regional market. In Germany the price of Vinyl Acetate Monomer in the month of Jan 2022 observed to be USD 2365/ton FD Hamburg. Major adhesive producers of VAM had increased their product prices in their domestic market. Traders started purchasing the product in bulk which disrupted the supply/demand equilibrium affecting the price trend.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Compared to the previous quarter, the prices of VAM in North America observed to be on the higher end in Q4 2021. Supply of Feedstock acidic acid and Ethylene was tight for major part of the quarter that’s why VAM remained mostly in uptrend throughout the quarter. Slight stability was spotted toward 2nd half of the December. When compared monthly, the demand for VAM in October was observed to be on high side compared with the rest two months. In October, the prices increase due to supply shortage which maintain the demand robust but in rest of the two months the major VAM players had provided the sufficient stock and the prices fell comparatively. Downstream Construction, Paint and coating industry also struggled with drastic price increase and shortage of Acetic acid affected their production.
Asia Pacific
The Asian VAM market remained burst in Q4. In China the prices were maxed to $2740/ton FOB Dalian due to unprecedented robust trading after holidays uplifted the market sentiments and induced port congestion along with limited freight vessel availability. However, the small relaxation in prices were seen in November with stable supply and moderate imports from Taiwan, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia. In India, the VAM prices continued to climb in the domestic market buoyed by firm demand for household applications. Pidilite Industry, a renowned player in the Indian VAM market in a recent update revealed the ease in pandemic situation has made people to focus on the home and office renovation projects due to an expected shift in their lifestyle in the coming months. In line with the improvement in demand for construction materials, VAM prices thus reached $2345 per MT Ex-Hazira on 12th November.
Europe
In Q4, the prices of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) rushed to the new heights with increased feedstock Benzene and Ethylene prices. A significant reduction of long-haul shipments Europe to Asian market, weaker cracker operations in the fourth quarter from low margins and logistic constrains also accounted for the tight balance. There was a spike in VAM pricing following the energy curtailment as many plants were shut down due to the government intervention. High consumption of energy in the manufacturing of Acetic Acid has also influenced the high costs. Polymer, adhesives, and coatings have all had considerable downstream demand for the raw material VAM
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
In North America, an appreciable rise in Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) prices was observed during the third quarter. The shutdown of LyondellBasell’s La Porte plant in Texas after the accident of chemical leak in July gave another setback to the regional market. As this incident hampered VAM production, VAM producers were unable to keep pace for both domestic as well as export market which consequently pushed the VAM prices throughout the quarter. In addition, calamities like Ida hurricane further tightened VAM availability in the region as industrial infrastructure remained shut in August. FOB Texas VAM monthly average prices assessed at USD 2680/MT in September.
Asia Pacific
In Q3, spike in the prices of VAM was observed in the Asian market backed by the constrained supplies of feedstock Acetic Acid and sturdy demand from the downstream sectors. In addition, Celanese Corporation in China announced a fore majeure over VAM plant which further intensified the shortage of VAM in Asia. Moreover, a continuous increment in the values of Acetic Acid in the regional market backed by the supply crises due to the Ida hurricane also send ripples to the prices of VAM. In India, the shortage of shipping containers also levied an upward push upon price fundamentals of derivatives like VAM. Overall, the demand-supply gap widened substantially, throughout the quarter. Ex-Hazira VAM monthly average prices stood at USD 2097.59/MT showcasing a hike by around USD 246.13/MT since July in India.
Europe
In the European region, VAM supplies were impacted during the third quarter backed by the delayed imports due to the supply chain disruption caused by Ida hurricane in the Gulf Coast of US in August. In addition, congestion on several ports of China as well as soaring freight costs also contributed to the hike in prices of VAM in the region. Overall demand witnessed a spike from the downstream sectors in contrast to previous quarter. FD Hamburg VAM monthly average prices settled at USD 2246/MT in September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Aftermaths of the US freeze fallout severely hampered the North American Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market in Q2 as the market supplies were sluggish due to a series of plant closures. Some of the plants restrained from operating at full efficiencies amidst restricted availability of the feedstock Acetic Acid. US exports of VAM to the European region were almost negligible till May. Demand surged from the construction sector with improved offtakes of the acetyl derivatives from the paints and coating industries. Enquiries were also improved from the packaging and adhesives industries. Prices remained upbeat throughout the quarter with FOB Texas offers settling at USD 2390 per tonne in June, observing an increment of nearly 30% from the assessments in March 2021.
Asia Pacific
During the first half of the second quarter, the supplies of VAM in the Asia Pacific region were severely impacted with some plant turnarounds reported in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. Some suppliers were heard diverting shipments to the European region in anticipation of better netbacks. Prices in China eased in the latter half of the quarter after surging to historic highs in April. FOB Shanghai price was assessed at USD 1929 per tonne in June. Demand was high throughout the quarter in China due to new EVA capacities by Sinochem Quanzhou and Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical.
Europe
VAM supplies in the European region were improved compared to the previous quarter owing ease in shipments from the USA as the industrial infrastructure in the US Gulf Coast (USGC) region restarted. Whereas the Asian cargoes were delayed due to the Suez Canal blockage in April starting. Market sentiments were bolstered as traders replenished the inventories which caused the slowdown in recovery pace of VAM supplies to the European market. Demand observed a seasonal hype from the construction sectors with better offtakes from the adhesives industries.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
The VAM market in the region was tight during the Q1 of 2021, as the several plant outages were heard for nearly two weeks due to sub-freezing temperatures in Texas. Due to the domestic market volatility and surged prices of VAM across the US, the key VAM exporter, buyers shifted towards the Asian suppliers to balance out market dynamics. In the meanwhile, improved consumption from the downstream building & construction and paints & coatings surged the demand of VAM in the region. US VAM exports showed marked reduction during the quarter with the prices settling at USD 1350 per MT FOB Texas in the final week of March.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
VAM supplies were tight in the first half of the Q1 2021, as the several plants in China remained under maintenance shutdown. However, the situation improved towards the quarter end as the various plants resumed operations. The global supply shortage due to several plant turnarounds in US provided better netbacks to the Asian VAM suppliers, who implemented a positive revision in their offer prices amidst the supply shortage. The demand during the period improved as the utilization from the downstream sector increased with economic rebound in China. The Indian market faced inflationary pressure in VAM that affected the gross margins of most consumer companies in the near term. With the market translating strong influence of global supply shortage, VAM the prices in India were averaged around USD 1215/tonne during the quarter.
Europe
VAM supplies remained tight throughout the quarter, as maintenance shutdowns were scheduled at various facilities across the region. Market was unstable throughout the quarter amid the second COVID wave, however the mass vaccination program kept market optimism high in the European region. The deficit in imports from the US was balanced by the Asian VAM, as capacity utilization improved from the downstream adhesives sector.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
Asia
Spate of plant turnarounds from Taiwan and South Korea throughout the third quarter of 2020 tightened the overall availability of VAM cargoes in Southeast Asia. Thus, prices of VAM in Q3 of 2020 Southeast Asia averaged around USD 807 per MT influenced by its healthy demand fundamentals and scarce product availability. Despite the restricted availability, paramount producers like Celanese and Dairen Chemicals continued to operate their plants at reduced rates amid fears of uncertainty prevailing from the second wave of Coronavirus in several parts of the region. Downstream demand for derivatives like Ethyl Vinyl Acetate (EVA) and Poly Vinyl Acetate (PVA) witnessed marginal recovery in Northeast Asia as countries restarted their business activities to save the sputtering economy.
North America
Market fundamentals of Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) in North America remained weighed up buoyed by strong values of feedstock acetic acid and series of plant outages in the Gulf coast region due to a wave of seasonal hurricanes. Since much of the US VAM is used for catering the global demand, abrupt outages and logistic concerns restricted the trading activities, thereby confining the export revenue of the region. As per Celanese Corporation, 10% quarterly increment in demand from its major importer China was registered but the gains were overshadowed by the consistent availability of material due to high production rates in the native country.
Europe
The European Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market witnessed severe supply issues primarily due to the turnaround of Celanese plant in Germany followed by few other temporary turnarounds in the region. Strong consumption from paints and coating sector on the arrival of summer season in the country bolstered its demand fundamentals. Although supply issues were resolved by the end of the quarter, momentum of recovery was hindered by the buzz of resurgence of Coronavirus in several parts of the region.
