The Ammonium Nitrate market experienced price escalation in the North American and European regions throughout September 2023. This price escalation can be attributed to several factors, including increasing essential feedstock and upstream prices, firm demand from the downstream fertilizer industry, and supply chain disturbances.

In the European region, a surge in the price of Ammonium Nitrate is attributed to revived demand from the downstream industry and increased price of upstream Natural Gas. During the last week of September, complications arose with Norwegian offshore gas facilities, resulting in a reduced supply of Natural gas going to the Gulf Coast, which in turn drove Natural Gas prices. Consequently, European producers feel more pressure to buy gas from other countries than make it themselves. Further, demand for Ammonium Nitrate from the downstream fertilizer market was firm as the consumers were actively stocking up amidst the forthcoming planting season. Moreover, this month, Russia imposed export duties on Nitrogenous fertilizers, including Ammonium Nitrate, supporting the current price trend. However, the supply situation was stable in the European market, with enough stocks available to cater to the end-user market needs.

In like manner, Ammonium Nitrate prices in the North American region increased in H1 of September 2023. Initially, there was a strong demand for Ammonium Nitrate from the domestic and international fertilizer markets at the beginning of the month, driven by the upcoming winter planting season. However, as the month progressed, there was a noticeable decrease in inquiries from the international market, particularly from Brazil. Buyers' reluctance to make bulk purchases has put downward pressure on import prices, and it appears that this trend will persist, weakening the Western market. Regarding supply, a sufficient quantity of Ammonium Nitrate was available in the market to meet end-users needs. These factors combined to create a balanced situation between supply and demand.

Additionally, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of imported natural gas surged by 19.1% in August 2023 and is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, supporting the increasing price trend. This escalation in natural gas prices has resulted in a proportional increase in the production cost of Ammonium nitrate. Further, the country's Consumer Price Index (CPI), as reported by the same source, experienced a 0.6% increase in August, with a minor 0.1% uptick noted in the Natural gas index.

As per ChemAnalyst, Ammonium Nitrate prices are anticipated to increase globally in the forthcoming months. The price rise can be attributed to the heightened costs of feedstock Ammonia and upstream Natural gas. Additionally, firm demand from the downstream fertilizer industry is anticipated in the coming months.