Ammonia Prices Surge in Europe Amidst Supply Chain Disturbances; Prices Stabilize in USA

During the first half of August 2023, the Ammonia market witnessed an upswing in price in the European Region. Several factors, including supply chain disturbances and increased freight charges in the region, mainly drove this price escalation. However, the Ammonia market in North America was relatively stable during the same period.

In Russia, the price of Anhydrous Ammonia was stable during the first week of August. However, there was a notable increase in Natural Gas prices, but the withdrawal of Russia from a year-long grain agreement has resulted in the accumulation of inventories within the country. Further, Russian producers were active in the US market due to high local prices and US consumers' stocking up of Anhydrous Ammonia for September 2023 and October 2023, which benefited Russian Producers in securing margins. The culmination of these factors has collectively reinstated a state of equilibrium within the market. However, the next week, an incident involving a fire extinguisher in a fertilizer warehouse in Moscow resulted in the deterioration of fertilizers in Russia, subsequently causing disturbances in the supply chains.

Similarly, imported Ammonia prices in Germany witnessed a substantial increase this week, primarily influenced by the rising material costs in various importing nations, including Russia. This surge in price was especially due to certain disruptions within the supply chain recorded in Russia, reinforcing the prevailing price trajectory. Furthermore, the escalated demand from the downstream fertilizer industry contributed to this price surge. This resurgence in demand can be attributed to the ongoing Rapeseed sowing season within the country.

Further, the downturn in the European economy during this month, driven by declined manufacturing activities in the region, also supported the current prevailing price trend.

On the other hand, Anhydrous Ammonia experienced a phase of stagnation in the United States. Despite the fluctuation in feedstock Natural Gas and upstream Crude Oil, the prices of Ammonia stabilized. However, demand from importing countries improved during this period since consumers were actively stocking up for September 2023 and October 2023. However, depreciated demand from the USA market and fewer exports due to low water levels have eased the prices of Anhydrous Ammonia within the country to stabilize. Intense drought in the country for the last two months has caused the farmers to delay the rice planting season within the country. Further, as indicated by government data, the Producers Price Index of the USA remained stagnant in July after a minor rise of 0.3%, and the index for Chemicals and its allied products decreased by 2.5%. These factors combined were responsible for the country's current prevailing trend of Ammonia.

According to ChemAnalyst's analysis, there is an anticipation of a rise in Ammonia prices in the upcoming months. This projection is attributed to shifts in demand within the end-user fertilizer market and the anticipated uptick in Natural Gas prices, a key feedstock for Ammonia production.