US: The grip of drought tightens across the Corn Belt, as Iowa and Illinois witness significant increases in the moderate and severe drought categories. This expansion of dry conditions is taking a toll on crop conditions and consuming more of the U.S. Corn and Soybean crops.

At first glance, the national snapshot of drought may seem stable, but close inspection reveals that drought conditions are worsening in the Midwest while improving in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. As the drought spreads across the heart of the Corn Belt, crops are experiencing the negative impacts of the dry spell. The National Drought Mitigation Center reports that the drought now covers around 57% of the U.S. Corn crop, 51% of Soybeans, 64% of sorghum, and 50% of winter Wheat.

According to recent reports, the drought conditions in the US are worsening and not just affecting the Corn crop, but also Soybeans. The National Drought Mitigation Center and USDA have revealed that currently, 39% of the US Soybean crop is in drought, which marks an increase of 11 points within a week. The situation is more severe in some areas as the US Drought Monitor indicates that Illinois has witnessed a 13.5-point jump with almost 15% of the state in severe drought. Similarly, Iowa's severe drought has increased from just under 8% to slightly over 14% this week.

Over the past month, a significant portion of the Midwest region has experienced a decline in drought conditions by 1 to 3 categories. Unfortunately, there are now areas east of the Mississippi River that are experiencing severe drought (D2). The western Corn Belt is facing both long and short-term drought challenges, with some pockets facing extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4). The current weather pattern is being impacted by persistent blocking high pressure at higher latitudes in North America. This feature is expected to further strengthen in the upcoming days, leading to unfavourably dry weather across many parts of the Midwest.

The latest report from the Drought Monitor has indicated that the situation in Illinois and Iowa is worsening. In Illinois, the extent of moderate drought has surged by almost 15 points in a week, covering nearly 65% of the state. Iowa saw a similar trend with a sharp increase of around 25 points, with almost 67.5% now experiencing moderate drought.

This unfortunate news is also impacting crop conditions across the US. There has been a decline in the quality of Corn crops. As of Sunday, only 61% of the Corn crops were rated good to excellent, which is a 3-point reduction from the previous week. In Illinois, the situation is even more concerning with less than half of the Corn crop rated as good to excellent, reflecting a 2-percentage point drop in a week and a 21-point fall over two weeks.

Missouri and Illinois are experiencing a decline in Soybean conditions, with only 45% of Missouri and 47% of Illinois rated as good to excellent. This is a decrease from last week's ratings of 48% and 51%, respectively. Additionally, the expansion of drought conditions can be seen in the topsoil moisture ratings, with 46% of topsoil reported as short to very short of moisture, up 2 points from last week. The Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt are particularly affected by dry topsoil conditions. The current drought is classified as a "cool" drought.

Modern crop varieties have shown better resilience to dry spells than hot weather. The eastern Corn Belt still has sufficient subsoil moisture that can be utilized by the crop's roots. However, in the western Corn Belt, subsoil moisture is scarce, and the timely arrival of rain will be crucial for the vitality of the crops. Additionally, experts have warned about the impact of smoke from Canadian wildfires, which may continue to affect various parts of the US due to northerly flow on the eastern side of the blocking high, until the fires are extinguished.

The latest update from Seasonal Drought Monitor reveals that the Eastern Corn Belt may experience continued drought development or persistence. NOAA's drought outlook supports this prediction, highlighting that eastern Missouri, eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are likely to face prolonged drought conditions. Additionally, NOAA warns that more areas of Illinois, northern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan may experience drought conditions as well. However, the Western Corn Belt and Plains can expect some relief, with improvements expected for eastern Missouri, eastern Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma.

The National Weather Service predicts a resurgence of intense heat next week in eastern Texas and Louisiana, with temperatures nearing record-breaking levels. This is due to a powerful sub-tropical high-pressure system that has already brought scorching temperatures to Texas, reaching triple digits. If this system connects with the Canadian ridge, it could create a formidable 'wall of high pressure' spanning the central third of the United States.