In March 2024, the global Ammonium Nitrate market sustained a downward trajectory consistent with the preceding month. This decline is predominantly ascribed to the diminishing costs of vital raw materials such as Ammonia and natural gas. The decrease in natural gas prices has significantly reduced the production expenses driving down its market prices. Additionally, a decrease in demand from significant downstream fertilizer markets, amid diminishing planting activities, has also played a role in the overall decline in prices.

Throughout March 2024, the European Ammonium Nitrate market has persisted in a downward trajectory, echoing the earlier observed trend within the month. A significant contributing factor to this trend has been the reduction in natural gas prices, a pivotal element in ammonia production. This decrease in the cost of natural gas has consequently led to low production expenses within the region, resulting in a decline in Ammonium Nitrate prices. Moreover, bad weather conditions, especially prevalent in northern regions, have further aggravated the situation. Intense rainfall and unfavourable weather patterns have substantially impeded agricultural activities, consequently affecting the demand for fertilizers, including Ammonium Nitrate. As a result, there has been an evident deceleration in fertilizer procurement interest. Moreover, farmers have exercised caution, deferring their purchasing decisions until the eleventh hour, potentially distorting the actual demand dynamics. Nevertheless, despite facing these challenges, it is worth mentioning that manufacturing facilities within the region have maintained a satisfactory operational pace. Concurrently, the international market has witnessed a smooth flow of cargoes.

Similarly, the Chinese Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited bearish sentiments during the initial half of March 2024. The decrease in the price of crucial feedstock material, namely ammonia, during this period has led to decreased production costs within the country, consequently exerting downward pressure on Ammonium Nitrate prices. Additionally, the supply situation of Ammonium Nitrate within the Chinese market has remained stable, with ample inventories available to meet the needs of end-users. Insights gathered from various market participants suggest a reduction in domestic Ammonium Nitrate daily output, despite sustained high operational rates. Some facilities in Shanxi and Yunnan have resumed or increased production, while others in Shandong and Ningxia have reduced or ceased production. Concurrently, demand from the international fertilizer market has remained subdued as the Chinese government maintains its decision to suspend fertilizer exports until the conclusion of the domestic planting season. Consequently, this has led to an accumulation of inventories within the domestic market. However, demand from the domestic fertilizer market has begun to rise as consumers prepare for the upcoming wheat planting season. Nevertheless, the demand has exhibited a slower pace than initially anticipated and has not significantly impacted Ammonium Nitrate prices.

As per analysis conducted by ChemAnalyst, it is forecasted that the Ammonium Nitrate market will experience a downward trajectory in the forthcoming months. This projection is attributed to the declining prices of feedstock and a reduction in seasonal demand.