For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the yttrium metal market in North America experienced a period of relative stability amidst market fluctuations influenced by various external factors. The quarter began with stable pricing dynamics, primarily due to improved supply conditions and moderate demand levels. However, global economic uncertainties, particularly linked to imports from China, created fluctuations in pricing as elevated inventory levels and sluggish demand formed a backdrop for market activity.
Throughout the quarter, the trends observed in related sectors, such as the aluminium sheet market, suggested challenges ahead. The aluminium sheet prices dropped by 2% in October and a further 6% in November, ultimately stabilizing in December. Since yttrium is essential in manufacturing aluminium and magnesium alloys, this decline likely exerted downward pressure on yttrium prices as well.
Market analysts noted that ongoing disruptions, including logistical hurdles and fluctuations in alumina prices, could create ripple effects impacting yttrium demand and pricing. Additionally, cautious consumer behaviour amidst economic uncertainties influenced the overall dynamics.
As the quarter closed, the pricing trend for yttrium reflected a modest decline, informed by broader challenges faced in the aluminium sector. Market participants must navigate fluctuations in raw material costs, ongoing demand volatility, and the impact of external factors from upstream supply chains while planning for the future.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the yttrium metal market in Europe faced significant headwinds characterized by stagnant demand and external pressures affecting pricing dynamics. Throughout October, yttrium prices exhibited stability; however, as the quarter progressed, challenges linked to elevated inventory levels and sluggish demand became more pronounced. The overall economic backdrop reflected a contraction in critical sectors, such as construction, which is essential for aluminium sheet consumption, impacting overall yttrium demand. Similar to the trends observed in the European aluminium sheet market, where prices remained stable despite decreases in previous months, the yttrium market experienced limited price fluctuations. Key factors influencing this period included the correlation with imports from China, where prices were experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties and shifts in downstream consumption patterns. As manufacturers faced rising operational costs and logistical disruptions, the availability of yttrium for use in aluminium and magnesium alloys was increasingly scrutinized. The fourth quarter concluded with a cautious outlook, as participants in the yttrium market must navigate ongoing demand uncertainties and fluctuating input prices, reflecting broader challenges seen across the European metals market. Looking ahead, stakeholders will need to adapt to the changing landscape while grappling with the potential for further economic contractions.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the yttrium metal market in the APAC region, particularly in China, experienced a mixture of stability and some downward pressure on prices. Throughout October, yttrium prices remained stable as improving demand from alloys, particularly in the wake of a revitalized real estate sector, offered some optimism. However, as the quarter progressed, key dynamics shifted, revealing challenges linked to upstream pricing pressures and hesitation among downstream buyers. In November, while prices held steady initially, a bearish sentiment emerged due to pushes from upstream separation plants for higher prices, which met resistance from price-sensitive buyers. This tug-of-war contributed to limited fluctuations in the market. By December, yttrium metal prices declined by 1.5%, reflecting broader downturns in the rare earth metal market coupled with fluctuating downstream demand. The quarter-ending price for Yttrium Metal (99.9%) FOB Shanghai stood at USD 27,930/MT. Overall, Q4 pricing exhibited a slight downward trend, combining periods of stability with eventual declines, reflecting ongoing challenges related to supply dynamics and demand volatility, which market participants must navigate carefully moving forward.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Yttrium Metal depend on the Various factors influenced market prices, including stable supply conditions, moderate demand levels, and global economic uncertainties. The correlation between imports from China, played a significant role in price fluctuations, with challenges such as elevated inventory levels and sluggish demand impacting pricing dynamics.
The automotive sector experienced a decline in sales, while the construction industry displayed resilience, indicating diverse demand trends across sectors. Plant shutdowns were not reported during the quarter, contributing to supply stability.
As China is a major producer of rare earths, including Yttrium, the restrictions on rare earth exports implemented on October 1, 2024, have implications for the availability of Yttrium as well. The restrictions increase volatility and prices in the rare earths market, potentially affecting the supply of Yttrium within China. Additionally, the ongoing battle against oversupply due to Chinese production practices could further impact the supply and pricing of Yttrium. The ripple effect on the U.S. technology industry and the broader global implications of these restrictions may shed light on the significance and challenges associated with Yttrium supply from China.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2024, Yttrium metal prices in the Chinese spot market remained stable amid challenging market conditions. Stainless steel demand was weak, and construction steel prices hit record lows despite a potential rebound due to anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts. The manufacturing PMI for China indicated continued contraction, although with minor improvements, highlighting persistent weak consumer demand.
China's Ministry of Industry set control quotas for rare earth mining, impacting Yttrium availability and prices. The construction sector displayed signs of recovery, and Yttrium demand is improving, fuelled by growth in high-tech sectors like new energy vehicles and industrial robots, projecting an annual growth rate exceeding 6%. Recent policy measures by the Chinese government aimed to stabilize the market and restore consumer confidence amidst ongoing real estate challenges.
Despite an uptick in rare earth ore imports, which rose 99% month-on-month, the battle against oversupply persists. The quarter recorded a slight decrease of 5% from the previous quarter, ending with prices at USD 28740/MT of Yttrium Metal (99.9%) FOB Shanghai (China), reflecting the overall downward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Yttrium Metal faced significant challenges, primarily due to high interest rates and elevated energy costs, which limited their participation in the alloy market. The sector's performance was notably impacted by broader economic pressures in the region. Logistical challenges persisted throughout the quarter, with increased congestion at major European ports including Barcelona, Valencia, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven. Hamburg particularly experienced longer delays compared to other North European hubs, exacerbated by Red Sea disruptions forcing alternative routing. Moreover, understanding the complexities of the rare earths market in China can provide valuable insights into the supply chain dynamics of Yttrium metal specifically within the country and exporting activity. The General Administration of Customs recently published the import and export data for August 2024. According to this data, China's import volume of rare earth metal ores reached 6,864 tons in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 7% and a remarkable month-on-month rise of 99%.
Ocean freight rates showed significant movements, with prices from Asia to Northern Europe decreasing by 17% per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean prices fell by 10%. These logistics trends influenced overall market dynamics and pricing structures. Global production context showed China leading with 74.9 million pounds, while European consumption remained constrained by market conditions.
