For the Quarter Ending December 2025
APAC
• In Japan, the Yellow Phosphorous Price Index fell by 3.42% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced import flows.
• The average Yellow Phosphorous price for the quarter was approximately USD 3953.33/MT per metric tonne.
• Tight cargo availability pushed the Yellow Phosphorous Spot Price higher, tightening bid-offer spreads amid restocking.
• Rising electricity tariffs influenced the Yellow Phosphorous Production Cost Trend, supporting firmer exporter offers regionally.
• Steady battery cathode and semiconductor buying underpins the Yellow Phosphorous Demand Outlook for near term.
• Selective restocking and seasonal procurement shape the Yellow Phosphorous Price Forecast toward modest incremental gains.
• Stable yen and higher container freight supported the Yellow Phosphorous Price Index tightening into December.
• Vietnam export allocations and Chinese quota limits constrained spot parcels, influencing procurement timing, inventory rebuilding.
Why did the price of Yellow Phosphorous change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Balanced imports from Vietnam and China met industrial demand, limiting upward pressure despite tighter parcels.
• Higher electricity tariffs and marginally increased container freight elevated landed costs, supporting firmer seller offers.
• Strategic stockpile rules and cautious procurement restrained spot discounts, maintaining active enquiries and price resilience.
North America
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Index in North America remained rangebound through Q4 2025 as balanced supply and steady import flows kept the market stable.
• Yellow Phosphorus Spot Price activity was moderate, with distributors reporting predictable availability and limited volatility across U.S. Gulf and West Coast terminals.
• Downstream consumption from phosphoric acid, phosphorus trichloride, pesticides, flame retardants, and organophosphorus intermediates remained steady but unspectacular, shaping a neutral Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend stayed muted as energy, sulphur, and phosphate rock inputs showed minimal movement, limiting cost-push pressure.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Forecast for early 2026 pointed to mild upside risk from seasonal restocking, though gains remained capped by stable domestic inventories and consistent import arrivals.
• Export demand remained soft, and domestic producers operated steadily, reinforcing a calm, balanced pricing environment.
Why did the price of Yellow Phosphorus change in December 2025 in North America?
• Steady imports and adequate inventories kept the Price Index slightly softer.
• Stable feedstock and energy inputs muted the Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend.
• Year-end demand slowdown reduced call-offs, softening the Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook.
Europe
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Index in Europe held largely stable through Q4 2025, supported by balanced supply and predictable contract-based procurement.
• Yellow Phosphorus Spot Price activity remained limited as most volumes moved under long-term agreements, reducing spot-market volatility.
• Downstream demand from phosphoric acid, phosphorus trichloride, pesticides, flame retardants, and specialty chemicals stayed steady, shaping a neutral-to-soft Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend remained stable, with energy and sulphur-based inputs showing minimal fluctuations.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Forecast for early 2026 indicated mild upside potential from restocking, though gains were capped by comfortable inventories across Northwest and Central Europe.
• Import-reliant buyers in Central and Eastern Europe reported adequate availability, further limiting upward pressure on the Price Index.
Why did the price of Yellow Phosphorus change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Comfortable inventories and stable domestic supply kept the Price Index from rising.
• Flat upstream costs held the Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend steady.
• Seasonal demand easing softened the Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook, reducing spot activity.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• Yellow Phosphorus Spot Price in North America declined in September 2025, primarily due to reduced demand from agrochemical and flame retardant sectors.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Index for Q3 2025 reflected a downward trend, influenced by oversupply and cautious procurement from fertilizer and industrial chemical manufacturers.
• Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook remained soft across the region. While long-term prospects in electronics and pharmaceutical intermediates remained stable, Q3 saw weaker offtake from glyphosate production and metallurgical applications.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend remained steady, supported by stable phosphate rock availability and moderate energy prices. However, increased freight and environmental compliance costs slightly pressured margins.
• September’s price decline was primarily due to elevated inventories, weak spot demand from agrochemical producers, and competitive imports from Asia, which pressured domestic pricing.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Forecast for Q4 2025 suggests a potential stabilization, supported by seasonal restocking and anticipated recovery in fertilizer and specialty chemical demand.
• Key downstream uses of yellow phosphorus in North America include glyphosate herbicide production, thermal phosphoric acid, phosphorus trichloride, flame retardants, and lithium-ion battery components.
Why did the price of Yellow Phosphorus change in September 2025 in North America?
• Lower consumption, particularly in glyphosate herbicide production, led to weaker spot market activity.
• High stock volumes across distribution hubs limited fresh buying interest, prompting sellers to reduce prices to stimulate demand.
• Lower-priced shipments from Asian suppliers increased market competition, pressuring domestic producers to revise pricing downward.
APAC
• In Japan, the Yellow Phosphorus Price Index fell by 2.46% quarter-over-quarter, due to increased imports.
• The average Yellow Phosphorus price for the quarter was approximately USD 4093.33/MT, reflecting modest softness.
• Yellow Phosphorus Spot Price eased as Vietnamese shipments increased, pressuring CFR offers, narrowing bid–offer spreads.
• Yellow Phosphorus Price Forecast signals downside into Q4 given persistent oversupply and subdued downstream buying.
• Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend remained steady, with energy and feedstock costs largely unchanged recently.
• Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook remains steady with semiconductor phosphine offtake; agrochemicals provide modest incremental demand.
• Yellow Phosphorus Price Index was pressured by three-week port cover and competitive Vietnamese export offers.
• Vietnam producers operated near capacity, while selective restocking and localized constraints may support spot values.
Why did the price of Yellow Phosphorus change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Increased Vietnamese shipments raised port inventories, reducing urgency for imports and pressuring CFR assessments overall.
• Lower handy-size freight rates and improved port efficiency trimmed landed costs, reinforcing price correction broadly.
• Stable semiconductor phosphine demand but draw-down procurement and comfortable stocks limited fresh buying, tempering recovery.
Europe
• Yellow Phosphorus Spot Price in Europe rose modestly in September 2025, supported by firm demand from chemical synthesis and metallurgical sectors.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Index for Q3 2025 showed a stable-to-firm trend, reflecting tight supply conditions and steady procurement from high-purity applications.
• Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook remained strong across Europe, driven by its use in thermal phosphoric acid, red phosphorus, and flame retardants, particularly in Germany and France.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend remained stable, supported by consistent phosphate rock availability and controlled energy inputs. However, logistics and environmental compliance costs added slight upward pressure.
• September’s price increase was primarily due to tight supply, firm offtake from industrial and metallurgical users, and limited availability of high-purity grades.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Forecast for Q4 2025 suggests continued firmness, supported by seasonal restocking and expanding demand in electronics and specialty chemical sectors.
• Key downstream uses of yellow phosphorus in Europe include thermal phosphoric acid, phosphorus trichloride, red phosphorus, flame retardants, and high-performance alloys.
Why did the price of Yellow Phosphorus change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Limited availability of high-purity yellow phosphorus constrained supply, especially for industrial and metallurgical applications, prompting upward price adjustments.
• Steady procurement from chemical synthesis and metallurgical industries, particularly in Germany and France, supported price firmness.
• Increased transportation and environmental regulatory expenses added marginal pressure to production costs, contributing to the overall price rise.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• Yellow Phosphorus Price Index in North America followed a mixed-to-stable trend during Q2 2025, shaped by global feedstock availability and downstream sectoral needs.
• Why did the price of Yellow Phosphorus change in July 2025 in North America?
Prices likely held steady as buyers balanced steady semiconductor-related demand with the need to manage high inventory levels.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Forecast for Q3 remains neutral to cautiously optimistic, depending on further CHIPS Act rollouts, reshoring progress, and the strength of phosphine-based applications.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend in North America was largely influenced by international sourcing. With Chinese-origin feedstock avoided by some firms, Vietnam and other alternative suppliers played a growing role.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook is moderately bullish, particularly from chip and advanced materials manufacturers in the U.S., though agricultural pull remains limited amid local supply sufficiency.
• U.S. semiconductor policy continued to drive spot interest in non-China origin yellow phosphorus, while phosphine gas producers explored longer-term partnerships in Southeast Asia.
• Fertilizer-sector demand remained minimal in Q2, with most players relying on domestic intermediates and reduced exposure to global price volatility.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
• Yellow Phosphorus Price Index in APAC increased by 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, settling at USD 4,080/MT in June, marking a 1.0% quarter-end decline. The correction was attributed to inventory build-up and muted spot buying despite stable production and solid underlying demand.
• Why did the price of Yellow Phosphorus change in July 2025 in Vietnam?
Prices likely stabilized in early July as semiconductor and fertilizer sector demand held firm, while export competitiveness recovered after temporary freight advantages eroded.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Forecast for Q3 suggests rangebound prices between USD 3,900–4,050/MT, supported by revived fertilizer demand from India and Brazil, and continued phosphine-related consumption in Asia’s semiconductor supply chains.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend remained favorable in Q2 due to stable electricity rates from hydropower and flat feedstock phosphate rock costs. Logistics also improved as port congestion eased at Cat Lai and Vung Tàu.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook was robust through the quarter. Strong offtake from India, South Korea, and Japan underpinned export momentum, while new orders from the U.S. and UAE added geographic diversity.
• Vietnam's semiconductor sector pull remained a key pillar, with consistent phosphine demand for HBM chip production in Korea and packaging facilities in Japan, supported by CHIPS Act-aligned sourcing preferences in the U.S.
• The fertilizer segment showed firm demand, bolstered by India’s kharif preparations and Brazil’s MAP price strength. Thermal phosphoric acid output remained stable, offering a floor to yellow phosphorus offtake.
Europe
• Yellow Phosphorus Price Index in Europe remained largely unchanged through Q2 2025, influenced by limited regional consumption and high import costs. Buyers continued to rely on spot parcels from Vietnam, Morocco, and Kazakhstan.
• Why did the price of Yellow Phosphorus change in July 2025 in Europe?
Prices likely stayed stable as import flows remained steady and regional demand held to routine volumes without significant restocking.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Price Forecast indicates a flat trajectory for early Q3, as Europe’s flame retardant, agrochemical, and electronics sectors maintain stable—but unexceptional—procurement volumes.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Production Cost Trend in Europe was indirectly impacted by high energy prices and rising compliance costs for importing producers. Freight from Vietnam remained cost-competitive, cushioning European buyer exposure.
• The Yellow Phosphorus Demand Outlook in Europe was subdued but steady, driven by electronics intermediates and select agrochemical formulations, while the region increasingly relied on imports amid stagnant local production.
• Semiconductor-related demand from central and western Europe contributed marginally to import interest, particularly in countries expanding packaging or backend assembly capacity.
• The fertilizer market offered a limited boost, as Europe’s regulated phosphate usage and stronger use of processed inputs reduced direct P4 consumption.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In the first quarter of 2025, the North American yellow phosphorus market experienced limited movement, with the region relying on imports to meet its demand. Domestic production remained stable, but supply from key global producers, particularly Vietnam, was crucial in maintaining inventory levels. Energy costs, while still relatively high, showed gradual easing, offering some relief to producers. However, demand from downstream sectors such as fertilizers and phosphoric acid manufacturing remained subdued, largely due to a slower-than-expected economic recovery and ongoing industrial challenges.
Despite the broader market weakness, the semiconductor sector showed signs of recovery, with global sales expected to rise in 2025. This uptick in semiconductor demand was projected to support yellow phosphorus consumption, particularly for applications in high-performance chip manufacturing. While the overall demand remained lackluster, the resilience of the semiconductor industry and stable demand from industrial cleaning sectors helped balance the market, preventing significant volatility.
By March, prices significantly increased, propelled by heightened demand from the worldwide semiconductor sector and ongoing supply-side limitations. DGC restarted regular operations, supported by robust export activity, especially to markets such as the U.S., amid changing trade conditions and continued tensions between the U.S. and China.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2025, the Vietnamese yellow phosphorus market experienced fluctuating dynamics driven by supply limitations and subdued demand. In January, prices saw a decline, primarily due to reduced operating rates at Duc Giang Chemicals Group (DGC) following maintenance shutdowns, which constrained domestic supply. Despite stable phosphate rock markets, demand from downstream industries such as fertilizers and phosphoric acid remained weak, impacted by a slower-than-expected economic recovery and reduced agricultural spending.
In February, prices slightly increased, as DGC continued to operate at reduced capacity. The company's efforts to streamline costs through mergers and acquisitions, particularly increasing its stake in Phosphates and Chemicals Company, were key strategies for improving profitability. Despite these moves, demand from the fertilizer and phosphoric acid sectors remained sluggish, though the semiconductor industry began to show signs of recovery, contributing to potential future growth in yellow phosphorus demand.
By March, prices rose notably, driven by increased demand from the global semiconductor industry and continued supply-side constraints. DGC resumed regular operations, bolstered by strong export performance, particularly to markets like the U.S., amid shifting trade dynamics and ongoing US-China tensions. Meanwhile, logistics delays and feedstock phosphate rock shortages continued to affect production, but the overall demand outlook remained stable, supported by steady needs from various sectors, including AI-driven semiconductor production and agricultural fertilizer applications in Asia.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2025, the European yellow phosphorus market faced a restrained performance, with limited price movement due to ongoing supply limitations and weak demand. The region’s reliance on imports, especially from Vietnam, was a key factor in meeting supply needs, as domestic production remained insufficient. Reduced operating rates at major suppliers, including Duc Giang Chemicals Group (DGC), which underwent maintenance shutdowns, impacted available domestic supply.
The semiconductor industry showed some positive trends, with a projected increase in global sales for 2025. This recovery in the semiconductor sector was expected to help boost yellow phosphorus demand in the coming months. However, weak market sentiment in the broader industrial sectors and elevated inventory levels kept price fluctuations in check. European manufacturers continued to rely heavily on imports to balance supply, while the demand outlook remained cautious but stable, with semiconductor demand offering hope for a gradual market improvement.
By March, prices increased significantly, fueled by heightened demand from the worldwide semiconductor sector and persistent supply-side limitations. DGC restarted its normal operations, supported by robust export performance, especially towards markets such as the U.S., in the context of changing trade dynamics and continual US-China tensions.
