For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, yellow phosphorus prices in North America demonstrated relative stability, influenced by seasonal demand patterns and consistent industrial consumption. October began with marginal price fluctuations as demand from key downstream industries, including fertilizers and phosphoric acid production, remained subdued due to elevated inventory levels and a slower-than-expected recovery in the agricultural sector.
However, a slight uptick in demand emerged in November, driven by a resurgence in the semiconductor industry and increased activity in AI-related applications. The downstream fertilizer sector remained steady, supported by ongoing agricultural operations, although the focus on sustainable farming methods and organic fertilizers limited the traditional demand for yellow phosphorus-based products.
By December, prices experienced modest increases as supply tightened due to weather-related disruptions affecting logistics and delivery schedules. The semiconductor industry, buoyed by robust advancements in AI and data centers, played a pivotal role in sustaining demand across the region. Additionally, stable phosphate rock costs and a shift toward advanced manufacturing technologies bolstered market confidence. While overall demand trends remained cautious, seasonal purchasing activity and the sustained growth in high-tech sectors ensured steady consumption.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the price trend of yellow phosphorus in the APAC region exhibited notable fluctuations driven by variations in supply, demand, and manufacturing dynamics. October witnessed a decline in yellow phosphorus prices in Vietnam. This decrease was primarily attributed to subdued demand in the phosphorus chloride industry, elevated inventory levels, and pre-holiday stocking by Chinese buyers during the National Day period. Additionally, weather-related disruptions and ample material availability in the Asian market further suppressed market dynamics. By November, the trend reversed, with prices surging. The primary catalyst was a maintenance shutdown at Duc Giang Chemicals Group (DGC) in Hanoi, which ran at reduced operating rates of 56%, significantly constraining domestic supplies and driving up prices. In December, yellow phosphorus prices rose modestly, fueled by steady semiconductor demand and lingering supply-side constraints from the November shutdown. While demand from fertilizers and phosphoric acid manufacturing remained tepid due to elevated inventories and slow economic recovery, the robust activity in AI and data center developments bolstered the semiconductor industry, a key consumer of yellow phosphorus. Vietnam, despite supply challenges, retained its position as the leading regional exporter, supported by signs of recovery in manufacturing activities post-Typhoon Yagi.
Europe
Yellow phosphorus prices in Europe during Q4 2024 showcased a dynamic trend influenced by regional supply challenges and fluctuating demand across industrial sectors. October began with stable pricing, supported by consistent demand from the fertilizer and phosphoric acid industries, though the overall sentiment was dampened by elevated inventories and a reduction in large-scale purchasing activities. The market saw limited momentum during the early part of the quarter, partly due to persistent economic challenges in key European economies. However, November brought a moderate price increase as regional supply tightened, with weather-related disruptions and logistical bottlenecks affecting imports from key exporters in Asia. Moreover, reduced domestic production capacities in several European facilities, coupled with higher energy costs, added to supply-side constraints. By December, prices were further bolstered by a revival in demand from the semiconductor and electronics sectors, particularly in Germany and Eastern Europe, driven by the global surge in AI and high-performance computing technologies. Upstream phosphate rock prices remained stable, providing cost stability for producers, but downstream demand in fertilizers stayed modest due to reduced agricultural activities during the winter season.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the yellow phosphorus market in North America experienced a decline in prices, primarily driven by subdued demand from the agricultural sector, unfavorable weather conditions, and cautious purchasing behavior. The overall market sentiment was largely negative, with prices following a consistent downward trend. The USA, in particular, saw notable price changes between the first and second halves of the quarter.
This decline can be attributed to a combination of low demand, disruptions from adverse weather, and uncertainties within the agricultural sector. Additionally, plant shutdowns contributed to supply constraints, further influencing the bearish market outlook. The ongoing volatility in agricultural production and the resulting impact on fertilizer application have added to the challenges faced by producers.
As manufacturers grappled with these market dynamics, the quarter concluded with yellow phosphorus priced at lower levels, underscoring the prevailing downward pricing trend in the region. Market participants remain cautious about future developments, closely monitoring demand trends and supply chain stability as they navigate the upcoming quarters.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a significant increase in yellow phosphorus prices, driven by various interrelated factors. Supply constraints stemming from disruptions in manufacturing activities and adverse weather conditions were pivotal in propelling prices higher. The market faced moderate to high supply levels, with manufacturers operating at normal capacity but encountering challenges related to logistics and extended shipping times.
Demand remained steady, with regional fluctuations noted across different markets. China particularly experienced the most pronounced price changes, with prices steadily increasing throughout the quarter. The overall trend in China showcased a bullish sentiment, characterized by stable demand coupled with limited supply, which contributed to the upward price movement. Seasonal factors and global market dynamics also played a role in influencing pricing trends.
While there was a slight decrease from the previous quarter, the quarter-ending price in China was positioned at elevated levels, reflecting a favorable pricing environment marked by rising prices. Additionally, plant shutdowns during the quarter further affected supply dynamics, reinforcing the overall upward price trend.
Europe
In Q3 2024, yellow phosphorus pricing in the European region experienced a notable decline, with Germany seeing the most significant price fluctuations. The quarter was marked by a negative pricing environment driven by several factors. Adverse weather conditions impacted production capabilities, leading to reduced demand for yellow phosphorus in various applications, particularly in agriculture and industrial sectors. Furthermore, sluggish global demand and uncertainties in key markets exerted downward pressure on prices. The quarter recorded a considerable decrease compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the persistent challenges facing the market. In Germany, the pricing trend mirrored the overall European pattern, with prices declining significantly between the first and second halves of the quarter. Additionally, supply constraints were exacerbated by plant disruptions, including maintenance shutdowns at key facilities and operational challenges, which further impacted product availability during the quarter. These disruptions not only limited supply but also contributed to an overall sense of uncertainty among market participants, as they struggled to navigate the fluctuating conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the Yellow Phosphorus market in the USA showed a generally bearish trend. Prices continued to decline due to reduced demand from downstream industries, particularly in agriculture, which led to an accumulation of inventories. The downstream sector remains sluggish, with purchases made mainly on an as-needed basis. Farmers have scaled back on fertilizer use due to cost and availability concerns, contributing to the drop in prices.
Supply-side challenges, including production constraints in Europe, sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and trade restrictions in China, have also played a role in the decline. As a result, the overall market has experienced a downturn, with market activity remaining subdued and businesses operating at a slower pace.
In North America, particularly in North Dakota, farmers faced disruptions caused by geomagnetic storms, which halted planting operations until the effects of the solar storm subsided. Additionally, demand from international markets, including European countries like Norway and Spain, was subdued due to severe windstorms and floods. These domestic and international factors collectively led to a significant decrease in overall demand.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Yellow Phosphorus market in the APAC region experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple factors. The primary reason for the price hike was the improved consumer demand in downstream industries. Supply constraints also played a crucial role, particularly due to unscheduled plant shutdowns in China. Various manufacturers, including Leshan Jinguang Chemicals Co., Ltd., Sichuan Linhe Industrial Group Co., Ltd., and Chengdu Wintrue Holding, experienced temporary closures due to an earthquake in late May.
Additionally, flooding in Hubei in June affected plants like Yichang Yatai Chemical Co., Ltd. and Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co., Ltd., further tightening supply. The increased production costs, resulting from higher feedstock prices, also contributed to the bullish market sentiment. Focusing exclusively on Japan, Yellow Phosphorus prices exhibited the maximum changes. This increase was characterized by robust demand from the downstream phosphoric acid manufacturing industries and an anticipated improvement in the agricultural sector.
Despite an overall negative trend of -2% from the previous quarter in 2024, the pricing environment remained positive. The seasonality and correlation in price changes indicate a consistent upward trajectory, ending the quarter with a price of USD 3920/MT CFR Tokyo. This reflects a stable to bullish sentiment for Yellow Phosphorus in Japan, driven by supply disruptions and escalating production costs.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the European Yellow Phosphorus market exhibited a bearish trend. Prices continued to fall due to diminished demand from downstream industries, particularly in agriculture, resulting in an inventory buildup. In the first month of Q2, prices in Germany declined due to weak consumer demand and global market pressures, further impacted by tensions in the Middle East. Despite maintenance shutdowns in exporting countries’ plants, European prices remained largely unaffected due to low demand in the agrochemical sector.
Mid-Q2 saw varied weather conditions across the European Union impacting agricultural activities. Excessive rainfall in Western Europe caused waterlogging and increased pest pressures, leading farmers to delay fertilizer investments. Countries like the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands experienced a wet winter and spring followed by warm weather, worsening pest issues and discouraging bulk purchases. These fluctuating weather patterns created an unpredictable agricultural environment, affecting demand.
In the last month of the quarter, Yellow Phosphorus prices in Germany edged up slightly due to supply constraints caused by rising water levels in the Rhine River, which delayed shipments. Despite global market uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, German prices showed some resilience, supported by stable benchmarks and modest demand dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Yellow Phosphorus market in the USA exhibited bearish tendencies. Prices continued to decline during this period due to reduced demand from downstream industries in the agriculture sector, leading to inventory accumulation. Additionally, industrial activities contracted, as indicated by a decrease in the manufacturing PMI, although conditions improved slightly in the final month.
The fertilizer industry displayed low consumption rates, particularly during freezing temperatures, contributing to weak demand from downstream industries. Consistent purchasing activity was lacking in other downstream markets, resulting in stagnant market sentiments. Despite this, Yellow Phosphorus prices in North America saw a slight increase over the quarter. During this period, the supply chain constraints also impacted the market due to delayed shipments and higher freight charges.
However, demand from other downstream markets such as the phosphorus trichloride sector remained weak throughout the quarter. In summary, the North American Yellow Phosphorus market experienced an overall downward trend in the first quarter of 2024, influenced by factors such as demand from downstream industries, industrial activities, and supply considerations.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Yellow Phosphorus in the APAC region were influenced by a combination of factors. While the overall trend in pricing was relatively stable, there were notable fluctuations in the Japanese market. These fluctuations were driven by factors such as the seasonality of demand, market sentiment, and the availability of cheaper imports Compared to the last quarter of 2023, prices decreased by USD 50/MT (-1.3%).
In Japan, the market situation for Yellow Phosphorus was bearish, with high supply and low demand. The inventories of the product were ample, and imports from countries like Vietnam, offering discounted rates, contributed to the oversupply. The sluggish demand was evident in decreased inquiries from downstream industries like fertilizers, fireworks, and rodenticides, as consumers had ample inventories and were not procuring supplies due to the Lunar New Year holidays and Lantern Festival.
In conclusion, the pricing dynamics of Yellow Phosphorus in Q1 2024 in the APAC region were influenced by reasons such as market sentiment, and availability of cheaper imports. The Japanese market experienced fluctuations, with a bearish market situation and decreased demand. The final quarter's price for Yellow Phosphorus CFR Tokyo in Japan was USD 3920/MT.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2024, the Yellow Phosphorus market in Europe saw a downward trend as prices decreased consistently. Demand for Yellow Phosphorus in the region was lackluster, driven by sluggish inquiries from fertilizer manufacturers and a drop in imports from overseas markets. Additionally, manufacturing production in the Eurozone declined, contributing to the bearish market conditions.
The supply of Yellow Phosphorus was moderate, with average import rates from the fertilizer industry and limited uptake from the consumer market. Production costs also eased during this period due to manageable gas prices. In Belgium, Yellow Phosphorus prices declined in Q1 due to stagnant demand conditions. Agriculture's seasonal demand remained low amid unfavorable weather conditions.
Downstream industries faced limited consumer inquiries, further dampening market sentiments. Notably, there were high product inventories and visible destocking activities by consumers in the region. The reduction in industrial activity, influenced by both weak consumer demand and poor economic performance, prompted manufacturing companies to either scale back operations or temporarily suspend them.
