For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Water Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) market witnessed a marked decline in prices, with the USA experiencing the most significant reductions. A primary factor driving this trend was the drop in demand from the downstream agrochemical sector, leading to an accumulation of inventory and limited buying activity. This demand decrease left suppliers with excess stock, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance that further pressured prices downward.
Additionally, global supply chain disruptions exacerbated cost pressures, including increased freight charges that added complexity to logistics, ultimately contributing to the downward pricing trend. In the USA, these challenges were especially evident, with WSF prices recording a -4% change compared to the previous quarter. Seasonal factors also played a role, as certain agricultural activities slowed, reducing the immediate need for fertilizers and compounding the bearish market sentiment.
Efforts were made within the industry to revive demand and adjust production to better match market needs; however, these adjustments were not enough to counterbalance the downward trend. By the end of Q3, Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP), a prominent WSF, was priced at USD 597/MT in the USA, underscoring the steady decline in pricing throughout the quarter and reflecting the challenging pricing environment faced by the North American WSF market.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Water Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) market in the APAC region experienced an increase in prices, with China witnessing the most significant price changes. Several factors influenced this surge in market prices. Incline in the demand from the agrochemical sector, especially during the critical planting season, played a pivotal role in driving prices upwards. Additionally, supply chain disruptions, rising global demand, and logistical challenges contributed to the bullish sentiment in the market. The quarter witnessed a consistent trend of escalating prices, reflecting the complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics. During this quarter, China experienced the maximum price changes in the WSF market. Seasonality, increased production costs, and heightened demand from downstream sectors were key drivers of the price surge. Moreover, disruptions in the supply chain and intensified freight charges further bolstered prices. Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, prices increased by 2%, showcasing a continuous upward trajectory. The quarter-ending price for Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) in China stood at USD 536/MT FOB Qingdao, indicating a persistently bullish pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Water Soluble Fertilizer (WSF) market in Europe witnessed a significant price uptrend, driven by a combination of rising feedstock costs and seasonal demand pressures. A notable factor influencing the market’s bullish trend was the increased production cost, particularly due to fluctuations in the prices of key raw materials. Ammonia prices, in particular, experienced a steep climb, adding considerable upward pressure on WSF costs, while Phosphoric Acid prices remained comparatively stable, balancing the overall production cost structure. The spread between Ammonia, Phosphoric Acid, and WSF prices thus widened, reflecting heightened bullish sentiment in the market. Adding to this was the onset of the plantation season, which spiked demand across Europe as farmers sought enhanced nutrient solutions for their crops, further tightening supply. This seasonal demand surge, coupled with constrained WSF availability, pushed prices higher throughout the quarter. These combined factors amplified the WSF market's value, establishing Q3 2024 as a period of notable growth in pricing and underscoring the market’s sensitivity to both feedstock fluctuations and seasonal agricultural cycles in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Water-Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) market in North America faced a challenging quarter marked by a consistent decrease in prices. The overall pricing environment was decidedly negative, primarily driven by several significant factors. High labour, equipment, and crop protection costs pressured farmers to tighten budgets, significantly reducing their expenditure on WSF. Industry-wide destocking efforts by distributors and retailers further compounded the issue, leading to surplus inventories and exacerbating price declines. Higher interest rates influenced these stakeholders to manage working capital more conservatively, contributing to a bearish market sentiment.
Despite ample supply levels facilitated by regular material inflows, logistical challenges, particularly at key ports like the Port of Baltimore, disrupted normal operations and added to the market's instability. In the USA, WSF prices experienced the most significant shifts, reflecting overall trends, seasonality, and price correlations. The agriculture sector's low consumption levels during this period led to a noticeable -23% decline from the previous quarter in 2024. Additionally, there was a stark -9% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter.
The upcoming harvesting season also temporarily suppressed demand, further fuelling the downward trend. The quarter culminated with the price of Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) FOB Texas settling at USD 610/MT, marking an overall negative sentiment for the WSF pricing environment in the region. This decreasing trend underscores the need for adaptive strategies to navigate ongoing market challenges.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a significant decline in the prices of Water-Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) across the APAC region. This downward trend has been driven by multiple factors, the most notable being subdued demand from downstream markets and reduced costs of raw materials. Further compounding this decline is the excess supply in the market, as logistical challenges and regulatory restrictions have impeded smooth trade flows globally. The overall bearish sentiment has made buyers adopt a more passive stance, further pressuring prices downward. Additionally, disruptions in the supply chain and occasional plant shutdowns have exacerbated the situation. In China, the impact has been particularly pronounced. The second quarter saw WSF prices falling due to ample supply and stagnant demand post the Lunar New Year. Seasonality played a critical role, with market activities typically slowing down during this period, contributing to the oversupply scenario. The decrease from the previous quarter is stark, recorded at -25%, highlighting the severity of the price drop. Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, a further -10% reduction was observed, underscoring the continuous downward pressure on prices. The quarter ended with Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) prices at USD 521/MT FOB Qingdao. This consistent decline in pricing reflects a negative environment for WSF, driven by supply surplus, logistical issues, and weakened downstream demand, creating a challenging market landscape for producers and traders alike.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the European mono ammonium phosphate (MAP) market experienced notable dynamics. The market saw a price increase, driven by several factors including supply constraints and heightened demand. Western sanctions on Russia and the conclusion of the Black Sea deal further complicated the supply chain, impacting the availability of MAP in Europe.
Despite these challenges, the demand for MAP remained robust, particularly from the agricultural sector, which relies heavily on this fertilizer for its high nitrogen and phosphorus content. The stringent EU regulations on phosphate fertilizers have led to a gradual shift towards bio-based organic fertilizers, which could potentially hinder the growth of the MAP market in the long term. However, in the short term, the demand for MAP continues to be strong due to its effectiveness and established use in the industry. The market dynamics were also influenced by global trends, with Europe being a significant player in the global MAP market. Nonetheless, the immediate impact of supply constraints and increasing demand has led to upward price movements for MAP in Europe during Q2 2024.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In North America, the WSF market witnessed a surge during the first quarter of 2024 were shaped by a mix of domestic production challenges and international geopolitical tensions. The U.S. faced several supply chain disruptions owing to extreme winter weather conditions that impacted both production facilities and logistics networks, leading to temporary slowdowns in WSF supply.
This was compounded by ongoing trade tensions and potential sanctions against key global phosphate suppliers like Russia, which introduced further uncertainties into the market. Due to these challenges, demand for WSF increased, supported by the agricultural sector's preparation for the spring planting season. However, the anticipation of increased demand did not immediately translate into higher prices due to the prevailing cautious sentiment among buyers, who were wary of potential price hikes and supply disruptions.
Suppliers prudently managed inventories, refraining from overproduction to safeguard prices and margins. The price action suggests that market participants have responded favourably, accumulating inventories in line with downstream market demands and inventory management strategies. As the quarter concluded, there were optimistic signals of market responsiveness, with anticipation of a surge in demand in the forthcoming months.
APAC
The water-soluble fertilizers (WSF) market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region witnessed a considerable decline during the first quarter of 2024. The policies were implemented to prioritize domestic agricultural needs, significantly affecting the availability and prices of WSF in neighbouring markets. As China is a major producer and exporter of WSF, including key products like Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP), the reduced export volumes led to adequate supply across the region. In response, countries heavily dependent on Chinese WSF, such as Malaysia and Vietnam, sought alternatives, creating a ripple effect in the global supply chain, and pushing up prices in the spot markets. The market dynamics were further complicated by seasonal demand fluctuations associated with agricultural cycles in the region, particularly around the Lunar New Year when agricultural activities typically decrease, but preparation for the subsequent growing season begins. This seasonal lull was exacerbated by the Chinese government’s decision to halt exports temporarily, leading to inventory pileups in China and acute shortages elsewhere. As the quarter progressed, prices witnessed a decrement, reflecting the market's sensitivity to any news regarding potential easing of export restrictions or increases in production capacity. The overall market sentiment remained bearish due to these supply constraints, coupled with fulfilling the demand from the agricultural sectors of emerging economies in the region seeking to secure adequate fertilizer supplies for the upcoming planting seasons.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the Water-Soluble Fertilizers (WSF) market in Europe exhibited a challenging scenario, marked by declination influenced by the market demands. One notable factor was the decrease in prices originating from China, a major exporter, which affected the overall pricing dynamics within the European market.
The market's performance was further shaped by a backdrop of economic uncertainties, which contributed to sluggish industrial activities and diminished agricultural output, adversely affecting the fertilizer sector. Demand for Water-Soluble Fertilizers in Europe witnessed on the lower side, with different sectors showing varied levels of demand. Notably, the water treatment and agrochemical sectors demonstrated diminished demand patterns, influencing the market's overall consumption dynamics. In Germany, the situation was particularly notable with significant price changes observed during the quarter. The supply of Water-Soluble Fertilizers was constrained, primarily due to reduced industrial activities which impacted production capacities. Overall, the pricing environment for Water-Soluble Fertilizers in Europe and specifically in Germany during Q1 2024 described as mixed, with market conditions leading to downward price movements.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In Q4 2023, the North American region experienced a mixed trend in Water-Soluble Fertilizers pricing, influenced by several factors. Firstly, the strength in feedstock Styrene prices played a significant role in shaping the pricing dynamics. The decrease in feedstock costs exerted upward pressure on Water-Soluble Fertilizers prices. Secondly, a shortage of Water-Soluble Fertilizers supply in the market led to undersupply situations, posing challenges in managing low inventory and contributing to a bullish market outlook.
Lastly, robust demand from downstream industries, with a preference for immediate stock procurement over bulk purchases, further bolstered the market. Specifically in North America, Q4 2023 marked a bullish market for Water-Soluble Fertilizers.
Heightened demand from the Automotive and Construction sectors, coupled with lower product inventories, drove robust trading activities and price increases. Nonetheless, the limited supply of Water-Soluble Fertilizers posed challenges in meeting market demand. The surge in feedstock prices and escalating energy costs also added to the overall production cost of the product.
APAC
In Q4 2023, the APAC region witnessed an upward trend in Water soluble Fertilizers pricing, influenced by several factors. Firstly, the strength in feedstock Styrene prices played a significant role in shaping the pricing dynamics. Secondly, a shortage of Water-soluble Fertilizers supply in the market led to undersupply situations, posing challenges in managing low inventory and contributing to a bullish market outlook. Lastly, robust demand from downstream industries, with a preference for immediate stock procurement over bulk purchases, further bolstered the market. Specifically in India, Q4 2023 marked a bullish market for Styrene Copolymer. Heightened demand from the Automotive and Construction sectors, coupled with lower product inventories, drove robust trading activities and price increases. However, the limited supply of Water-soluble Fertilizers posed challenges in meeting market demand. The surge in feedstock prices and escalating energy costs also added to the overall production cost of the product. Regarding price trends in India, there was a 1.6% increase in October 2023 compared to the previous month, followed by increase of 3.9% in December 2023. The quarter-ending price for Mono Ammonium Phosphate (MAP) CFR JNPT in India was reported at USD 1009/MT.
Europe
In Q4 2023, the European region experienced an upward trend in Water-Soluble Fertilizers pricing, influenced by various factors. Firstly, the strength in feedstock prices played a significant role in shaping the pricing dynamics. The decrease in feedstock costs exerted upward pressure on Water-Soluble Fertilizers prices. Secondly, a shortage of Water-Soluble Fertilizers supply in the market led to undersupply situations, posing challenges in managing low inventory and contributing to a bullish market outlook. Lastly, robust demand from downstream industries, with a preference for immediate stock procurement over bulk purchases, further bolstered the market. Heightened demand from the Automotive and Construction sectors, coupled with lower product inventories, drove robust trading activities and price increases. Nonetheless, the limited supply of Water-Soluble Fertilizers posed challenges in meeting market demand. The surge in feedstock prices and escalating energy costs also added to the overall production cost of the product. In contrast, the European Water-Soluble Fertilizers market in the fourth quarter of 2023 showed a mixed trend in pricing dynamics. Factors such as feedstock prices and supply shortages played a role in shaping the market, resulting in varied price trends during the same period.
