For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 for the North American Vitamin E market exhibited a notable bullish trend, characterized by significant price volatility following global market perturbations post the August incident. A substantial year-over-year price appreciation of 21% was observed compared to Q3 2023, indicating robust market dynamics. Quantitative analysis reveals Vitamin E 50% CWS Grade prices escalated from USD 17,600/MT FOB Illinois in July to USD 22,000/MT in September. Multiple market variables contributed to this price trajectory, encompassing supply-side constraints, elevated global demand coefficients, geopolitical market perturbations, and logistics sector inefficiencies.
The BASF facility incident in Germany (August 2024) precipitated significant disruptions in the global Vitamin E supply matrix, with substantial repercussions manifesting in the U.S. market. Given BASF's position as a primary global producer, the operational disruption resulted in immediate capacity constraints, triggering acute supply shortages. This supply-demand equilibrium destabilization rapidly translated into heightened price volatility across global markets, including the U.S.
The U.S. market experienced notable challenges as manufacturers addressed acute supply constraints. Critical industrial sectors, including nutritional supplements, cosmetics manufacturing, and pharmaceutical production, encountered elevated production cost metrics and potential raw material procurement challenges. Market participants initiated alternative supplier sourcing protocols, frequently at premium price points. This market event highlighted supply chain vulnerability metrics within the U.S. industrial sector, catalyzing comprehensive reevaluation of operational protocols and emphasizing the necessity for enhanced supply chain resilience optimization strategies.
APAC
The APAC region's Vitamin E market demonstrated substantial price appreciation during Q3 2024, influenced by multiple market variables. Supply matrix constraints, primarily attributed to the industrial disruption at BASF's facility, resulted in inventory optimization challenges and heightened demand coefficients. These supply-side perturbations, combined with robust demand dynamics across industrial sectors including cosmetics, nutraceuticals, and pharmaceutical manufacturing, contributed to significant price escalation trajectories.
The Chinese market exhibited particularly notable price volatility metrics, representative of the region's bullish market conditions. Early September data indicates unprecedented market turbulence, with price appreciation approximating 25%, correlating directly with global supply chain perturbations following the BASF facility incident. The market dynamics were further exacerbated by seasonal disruptions, specifically Typhoon Bebinca's impact on Shanghai's logistics infrastructure in late September, creating compound supply-side constraints.
Quantitative analysis reveals Vitamin E 50% CWS prices demonstrated significant escalation from USD 13,000/MT to USD 19,000/MT FOB Qingdao from July to September. This price trajectory was primarily driven by: Global market volatility coefficients, enhanced international demand metrics and critical inventory constraints. The cumulative effect of port operational disruptions and industrial sector deceleration has amplified the supply chain perturbations, impacting both Vitamin E and associated commodity markets within China's trading dynamics. This confluence of factors has created unprecedented market conditions, characterized by extreme price volatility and supply uncertainty.
Europe
The European Vitamin E market exhibited substantial price appreciation during Q3 2024, driven by multiple market variables. Demand escalation across industrial sectors, including pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and nutraceutical manufacturing, emerged as a primary price determinant. Supply matrix disruptions, particularly within key production hubs, contributed to supply-demand equilibrium destabilization, resulting in upward price trajectories. Additionally, logistics sector inefficiencies introduced supplementary cost variables, amplifying the overall price appreciation dynamics.
The German market experienced particularly acute challenges following the BASF facility incident in August 2024, which precipitated significant disruptions in the global Vitamin E supply. Given BASF's position as a primary global producer, the operational disruption resulted in immediate capacity constraints, triggering acute supply shortages. This supply-side constraint rapidly translated into heightened price volatility across industrial sectors within Germany and global markets. The event's impact was particularly pronounced in the European context. The market disruption highlighted the interconnected nature of global supply chains and their susceptibility to localized industrial perturbations, resulting in widespread price volatility and supply uncertainty across European markets.
Market participants initiated alternative supplier sourcing protocols, necessitating procurement at premium price points. This supply chain perturbation highlighted systemic vulnerabilities within the global supply matrix and their consequent impact on German market dynamics. Prices in September were settled around $21000 per MT CFR Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 proved exceptionally favourable for the Vitamin E market in North America, marked by a stable pricing trend. This quarter witnessed a convergence of factors that significantly supported market prices, primarily driven by a supply shortage that struggled to fluctuating demand levels.
Limited inventory held by domestic suppliers, coupled with increased procurement from international markets, played a crucial role in elevating prices. Furthermore, improvements in the supply chain, particularly streamlined logistics and reduced lead times for imports, contributed to the market's positive momentum.
The USA experienced price stability within the region. Market trends revealed a stagnancy in Vitamin E prices, influenced by insufficient stock and higher-than-anticipated demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals. Seasonality also benefited the market, with increased purchasing activities typical during this period. The correlation in price changes was evident as market participants adjusted their pricing strategies in response to low inventory levels and improved supply chain efficiency.
As the quarter concluded, the price of Vitamin E 50% CWS FOB Illinois reached a peak of USD 17,290 per metric ton. Overall, the pricing environment throughout Q2 2024 was predominantly positive, characterized by limited supply, logistical improvements, and robust demand, all contributing to a persistent increase in market prices.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 has seen a consistent decline in Vitamin E prices across the APAC region, driven by several notable factors. Primarily, the oversupply of Vitamin E, coupled with subdued demand from both domestic and international markets, exerted significant downward pressure on prices. Market participants continued to grapple with elevated production costs, mainly stemming from high energy prices, which, despite increasing overheads, did not translate into higher consumer prices due to the weak market demand. The persistence of this supply-demand imbalance has been a critical determinant in the overall price depreciation witnessed during this quarter.
Focusing on China, the country has experienced the most pronounced price changes in the APAC region. The overall trend for Vitamin E prices in China has been distinctly negative, reflecting a -15% decline from the same quarter last year. Seasonality factors, particularly the post-Lunar New Year period, also contributed to the sluggish demand, exacerbating the price decline. The quarter closed with Vitamin E 50% CWS prices settling at USD 12400/MT FOB Qingdao in China. This price point encapsulates the overall negative pricing environment marked by an excess supply and tepid consumer demand, leaving market sentiment decidedly pessimistic for the period.
Europe
The Vitamin E market in Europe also experienced a notable downtrend in Q2 2024, primarily driven by several critical factors. The quarter was characterized by a confluence of declining demand from key sectors such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals, coupled with improved supply chain conditions. The availability of Vitamin E stockpiles, especially from major Asian exporters, led to competitive pricing pressures. Additionally, the easing of global trade disruptions and reduced freight costs contributed to the downward price adjustments. Economic factors, including a slight recovery in inflation and improved consumer confidence, partially offset the downward momentum but were not sufficient to reverse the overall trend.
In Germany, the epicentre of the price volatility, the Vitamin E market saw a significant shift. The market exhibited a clear downtrend, with prices reducing by 6% compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting a substantial correction. Despite a modest 2% uptick from the previous quarter in 2024, the overall sentiment remained negative. Seasonal factors, such as reduced consumption during warmer months and ample inventory levels, exacerbated the price decrease. Conclusively, the quarter ended with Vitamin E 50% CWS CFR Hamburg prices at USD 15080/MT. The pricing environment in Q2 2024 reflected a predominantly negative sentiment, driven by an overabundance of supply and stabilizing trade conditions, overshadowing any minor demand recovery.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, Vitamin E 50% CWS prices in the North American market displayed a mixed pattern. Several factors contributed to this fluctuation, resulting in an overall contemplation in price trends. Notably, in the USA, prices initially rose until mid-quarter, followed by a decline in March. After dropping from $16,770/mt in January to $16,700/mt FOB Illinois by March, Vitamin E 50% CWS prices rose to $17,100/mt in February. Market conditions were influenced by shifting demand, product availability, rising freight costs, and reduced imports from Asia. To address these challenges, U.S. authorities collaborated with industry partners to improve real-time monitoring of freight movements, particularly focusing on nutraceutical shipments from China.
The conclusion of 2023 witnessed disruptions in supply chains and trade due to security issues in the Red Sea, leading to significant increases in freight charges. These disruptions impacted trade routes, causing congestion at U.S. ports and disruptions in the Panama Canal, thereby influencing commodity prices. During the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February, shipments were temporarily suspended. Despite expectations of increased demand for nutraceuticals, including Vitamin E, after the post-holiday market recovery in China, the anticipated rise in the U.S. did not materialize as forecasted. However, demand in the U.S. remained steady until the latter part of Q1, supported by new stocks from local suppliers.
Following ample supply, U.S. suppliers then reduced their price quotes and narrowed their profit margins in March. As prices began to decline in March, reduced demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, coupled with decreasing freight charges, played a significant role. This decreased demand coincided with an oversupply of Vitamin E from domestic sources, further complicating market dynamics. Additionally, diminished interest from Asian markets, notably China, also contributed to the price depreciation.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin E market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, especially in China, witnessed significant growth. Prices for the 50% CWS grade surged from $13,000 per metric ton in January to $13,840 per metric ton FOB Qingdao by March. This positive momentum represented a notable recovery from the challenges encountered in the fourth quarter of 2023, which included subdued demand, limited new inquiries, and excess inventory. However, starting from mid-January 2024, demand began to increase steadily and sustained momentum through March, signaling a revival in market sentiment.
The first quarter of 2024 showcased substantial improvement with increasing prices, reflecting a more balanced supply-demand relationship. This upward trajectory allowed participants in the Chinese market to maintain robust profit margins throughout the quarter. Even during the Lunar Chinese New Year holidays, the domestic Vitamin E market remained resilient, bolstered by strong manufacturing activities and the availability of fresh inventory. Additionally, the global demand for Vitamin E, especially from the pharmaceutical and other sectors, added complexity to the supply-demand dynamics, further shaping market trends.
Despite facing challenges such as declining consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, youth unemployment, reduced exports, and a drop in foreign investment, China's manufacturing output demonstrated resilience. The Vitamin E market in China experienced significant improvements, marked by an increase in demand and manufacturing output. During the latter part of the quarter, demand from international end-user industries started to climb, even amidst supply chain disruptions. Domestic sellers and traders seized this opportunity, achieving healthy profit margins despite the prevailing challenges.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin E market in Europe presented a positive pricing landscape, influenced by a variety of factors. Overall, the market maintained an upward trend throughout the period. Analyzing the trend and seasonality of Vitamin E prices in Germany in the fourth quarter of 2023 revealed no major deviations compared to the previous year. The correlation between prices and market conditions remained relatively consistent throughout the quarter. As Europe's largest Vitamin E market, Germany witnessed fluctuating price trends for the 50% CWS grade. Prices initially dipped to $14,400/mt in January and then surged to $15,100/mt by March CFR Hamburg. Despite disruptions in supplies from Asia, this stability was maintained by consistent demand.
The European economy encountered uncertainties during this period, including surging energy costs and the implementation of interest rate hikes. These elements created a fragile market environment for Vitamin E, complicating efforts to stabilize prices. Until mid-February, various factors influenced Vitamin E prices in Germany. Rising import costs from China, exacerbated by disruptions in the Red Sea and Chinese New Year celebrations, exerted pressure on prices. Additionally, currency exchange rate fluctuations, such as the Euro's depreciation against the USD, added to the financial challenges faced by German importers.
In summary, the Vitamin E market in Germany was shaped by factors such as inflation, federal taxes, supply chain disruptions, and escalating energy costs.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American Vitamin E market demonstrated a declining price trend, which was attributed to a decrease in end-user demand from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries as well as diminished consumer confidence. The market was characterized by instability and an overabundance of the Vitamin E supplement on domestic retailers' shelves.
Vitamin E 50% CWS prices were $18500/MT at the beginning of the quarter 4 and fell to $17040/MT FOB Illinois by the end of the quarter. Few Vitamins showed any upward movement, according to analysts, and many were still in the consolidation stage. Q4 2023 import levels exceeded Q4 2022 numbers, indicating that shops might have finished destocking and were getting ready for the Christmas season in December.
At the end of the quarter, the US economy for 2023 was called "remarkable." The US economy avoided a recession and showed overall faster growth, despite worries about controlling inflation and preventing significant job losses. The Vitamin E business experienced price hikes in the latter weeks of December due to the favorable impact of increased consumer demand in the United States and also because of surged freight charges potentially impacted by Israel-Hamas conflict.
APAC
The Vitamin E market in the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated a range of patterns in the fourth quarter of 2023, with some items seeing price rises and others seeing decreases. Overall, Q4 2023 saw a minor fall in the price of vitamin E, with the chart remaining pretty constant. Higher vitamin E prices were observed throughout the Asia Pacific area, including China and India, in the latter part of the quarter due to improved offtakes and export pricing. Nevertheless, there was an imbalance in the market as a result of a decline in demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries, particularly in November. On the other hand, stronger economic conditions, higher production levels, and a greater number of new business inflows led to the expansion of the nutraceutical market in India. Although production was expanded, there were notable price decreases in China because to sluggish worldwide demand. A second indication of the fall in Vitamin E off-takes in China's end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors was the lack of fresh inquiries from local or overseas markets during the first half of the quarter. October through December saw a drop in Vitamin E 50% CWS prices from $13800/MT to $12300/MT FOB Qingdao. Improvements in the PMI and increased consumer confidence, along with a slow but steady increase in prices, brought attention to China's economy in December. In China, the nutraceutical market saw mixed results for the year, with certain product categories experiencing declines and others experiencing recoveries. Notably, the market for Vitamin E showed signs of improvement, with its price trend showing appreciation and a strong finish to the year.
Europe
During the 4th quarter of 2023, the European Vitamin E market exhibited a downward trend. The market was negatively impacted by high supply levels, as domestic businesses maintained substantial inventories to meet demand and mitigate concerns of potential shortages ahead of the December holiday season. The overall downward price trend was also influenced by declining energy prices. Moreover, decreased end-user demand and the sufficient availability of Vitamin E in the domestic market were key factors contributing to the cost reduction. However, by December, Vitamin E 50% CWS prices were reported at USD 13,400/MT CFR Hamburg, reflecting a significant decline of more than 5% from November in the German market by the end of the quarter. The decrease in demand from Germany's downstream industries over the course of the month was primarily driven by the significant stockpiles maintained by domestic companies, despite minimal shifts in market dynamics. A major influencing factor in these market dynamics was China, a major exporter, which lowered the price of Vitamin E 50% CWS. Consequently, German importers benefited from reduced prices when acquiring Vitamin E 50% CWS supplements, leading to a corresponding decrease in prices within the local market. Additionally, the lack or minimal occurrence of fresh inquiries from end-user industries such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals nationwide prompted local sellers to offer the product at comparatively lower prices.
