For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Vitamin B12 market exhibited notable price appreciation during Q3 2024, with the United States emerging as the epicenter of significant price volatility. The quarter witnessed a quantifiable price escalation from $1,735,000/MT to $1,782,500/MT CFR Los Angeles between July and September 2024, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth of 4%. This upward price movement can be attributed to a confluence of market dynamics and macroeconomic factors.
Primary demand-side catalysts included intensified procurement activities in the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors, while supply-side constraints manifested through extended lead times and logistics challenges. The market demonstrated remarkable resilience despite encountering multiple operational headwinds, including port congestion, elevated transportation costs, and persistent supply chain perturbations. These challenges were further compounded by the downstream effects of price volatility in the Chinese market, a crucial global Vitamin B12 exporter, which created ripple effects throughout the U.S. nutraceutical industry.
The consistent price appreciation trajectory, particularly evidenced by the $47,500/MT increment over the quarter, underscores the market's robust fundamentals and sustained growth momentum. This pricing pattern aligns with broader regional market trends, indicating structural stability in the North American Vitamin B12 market despite prevailing logistical and supply chain challenges. The interplay between heightened regional demand, global supply dynamics, and logistical constraints has created a complex but fundamentally strong pricing environment in the North American market.
APAC
The Asia-Pacific Vitamin B12 market demonstrated significant price dynamics during Q3 2024, characterized by a robust upward trajectory. In China, the quarter registered a notable quarter-over-quarter price appreciation of 5%. The Chinese market, serving as a crucial standard for regional pricing trends, exhibited substantial price movement, with export values escalating from $1,500,000/MT to $1,573,750/MT FOB Shanghai between July and September 2024.
This price appreciation was underpinned by multiple market fundamentals and operational variables. On the demand side, sustained procurement activities from nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors maintained steady buying pressure. The supply-side economics were influenced by escalating production costs, encompassing raw material expenses and manufacturing overheads. The interplay between enhanced manufacturing output and logistical bottlenecks, particularly port congestion, created supply-demand imbalances that supported the upward pricing environment.
The market demonstrated strong fundamentals through consistent buyer inquiries and sustained order volumes. These demand patterns, coupled with operational challenges such as elevated freight costs and supply chain complexities, enabled both producers and suppliers to maintain favorable profit margins. The Chinese domestic market played a pivotal role in setting regional price benchmarks, with its pricing dynamics influenced by both robust international demand and heightened local consumption patterns. The correlation between increased manufacturing output and logistical constraints, particularly at major ports, created supply bottlenecks that further reinforced the upward price momentum in the APAC region.
Europe
The European Vitamin B12 market exhibited notable price appreciation during Q3 2024, with Germany emerging as the focal point of significant price volatility. The quarter culminated with prices reaching USD 1,702,500/MT CFR Hamburg in September 2024, reflecting the broader regional pricing dynamics. This pricing trajectory can be analyzed through multiple temporal comparisons: a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%, an intra-quarter appreciation of 2% between the first and second half, and a year-over-year decline of 2%, collectively indicating a shift toward bullish market sentiment.
The price appreciation was driven by a complex interplay of supply-side constraints and demand-side pressures. Supply chain challenges, particularly in Asian manufacturing centers, created availability constraints that exerted upward pressure on prices. This was compounded by robust demand fundamentals, with pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors demonstrating sustained procurement activities.
Germany's market dynamics served as a representative indicator for broader European pricing trends, showcasing distinct seasonality patterns and price correlations throughout the quarter. The market demonstrated remarkable resilience despite various operational challenges, with the consistent price appreciation trajectory highlighting the structural stability of the European Vitamin B12 market. The convergence of supply constraints heightened sectoral demand, and regional market dynamics has fostered a positive pricing environment, characterized by sustained growth momentum and market stability across the European region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Vitamin B12 market experienced a notable increase in prices, driven primarily by multifaceted factors. This quarter has been marked by a consistent upward trajectory in Vitamin B12 pricing, influenced by heightened demand from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors, coupled with supply chain disruptions and elevated freight costs. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges, such as port congestions and extended shipping times, have exacerbated these supply constraints, compelling suppliers to adjust their price quotations accordingly. Additionally, the reduced inventory levels held by major suppliers created an environment of scarcity, further intensifying the upward pressure on prices.
Focusing on the USA, the country has seen the most pronounced price fluctuations within North America. The overall trend in the USA has been one of persistent price increases, influenced by strong local demand and a stable stream of new inquiries from end-users. Seasonally, demand remained robust, with no significant dips, reinforcing the correlation between sustained demand and rising prices. Comparing Q2 2024 to the same quarter last year, there has been a -9% change, highlighting a recovery from previous lower price points. However, when compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices have increased by 3%, showcasing a positive pricing environment. Within the quarter itself, the price change between the first and second half was recorded at 1%, indicating a gradual but steady increase.
Concluding Q2 2024, the price of Vitamin B12 in the USA reached USD 1715000/MT CFR Los Angeles, encapsulating the quarter’s consistent upward sentiment. This pricing environment has been predominantly positive, with suppliers benefiting from strong demand and constrained supply, fostering a market scenario conducive to higher profitability.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a noticeable upsurge in Vitamin B12 prices within the APAC region, driven primarily by several pivotal factors. This quarter has been characterized by robust demand from end-user industries, consistent manufacturing outputs, and an overall balanced supply-demand dynamic. Noteworthy elements fueling this price escalation include seasonal demand spikes, heightened production costs, and logistical challenges, especially surrounding freight and shipping disruptions. Additionally, preemptive stockpiling by international buyers wary of supply chain uncertainties has further exerted upward pressure on prices.
China, in particular, has experienced the most significant price fluctuations. The overall market trends in China indicate a resilient pricing environment, driven by steady domestic and international demand, seamless manufacturing activities, and strategic inventory management ahead of anticipated plant shutdowns. This quarter's Vitamin B12 price trajectory in China underscores a seasonally enhanced demand correlating with higher production costs and limited supply availability. The Q2 2024 pricing for Vitamin B12 in China exhibits a 4% increase from the preceding quarter, despite a year-over-year decrease of 7%, reflecting adaptive market strategies to mitigate supply chain disruptions.
Throughout Q2 2024, the price comparison between the quarter's two halves shows a 2% increase, demonstrating consistent market strengthening. Conclusively, the quarter culminated with a Vitamin B12 price of USD 1,485,000 per MT FOB Qingdao. In summary, the pricing environment for Vitamin B12 in the APAC region, and particularly in China, has been predominantly positive, driven by strong demand, supply chain resilience, and strategic market maneuvers.
Europe
The Vitamin B12 market in Europe experienced notable price increases throughout Q2 2024. This quarter was marked by several key factors that influenced market prices. A primary driver was the persistent imbalance between supply and demand, exacerbated by limited availability from major producing regions in Asia. Despite ongoing supply chain disruptions, demand from end-user industries such as nutraceuticals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage remained robust. This consistent demand, coupled with constrained supply, continually exerted upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, escalating production costs in producing regions, increased freight expenses, and logistical challenges all contributed to the rising cost of Vitamin B12 exports to Europe.
Focusing specifically on Germany, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the overall trend has been one of sustained price appreciation. The German market's strong demand, particularly in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, further tightened domestic supply conditions. Seasonality played a role as well, with demand spikes aligning with specific production cycles and consumer behavior patterns. The correlation in price changes reflected the broader European trend but was more pronounced in Germany. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices fell by 5%, but there was a 3% increase from the previous quarter in 2024.
By the end of the quarter, Vitamin B12 prices in Germany reached USD 1,635,000 per metric ton CFR Hamburg, underscoring a positive pricing environment driven by heightened procurement activities and sustained end-user demand. Overall, the pricing sentiment in Q2 2024 for Europe, and particularly Germany, has been distinctly positive, reflecting robust market fundamentals and ongoing supply constraints.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American Vitamin B12 market exhibited a balanced demand-supply landscape, with an upward price trend during the period. The United States, a pivotal market player in the region, maintained consistent product availability amidst sustained consumer interest. Prices increased from $1,641,250/mt in January to $1,670,000/mt CFR Los Angeles in March. However, market conditions were impacted by constrained product availability, rising freight costs, and diminished imports from Asia. In response, U.S. authorities collaborated with industry leaders to enhance real-time monitoring of freight movements, with a specific focus on nutraceutical shipments originating from China.
Given China's role as a major producer and the U.S. as a primary importer, shipments were temporarily halted in mid-February i.e., during the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Despite anticipation of increased demand for nutraceuticals, including Vitamin B12, following the post-holiday market resurgence in China, the projected surge in the U.S. did not materialize as forecasted by industry analysts. The conclusion of 2023 bought further disruptions in supply chains and trade due to the security crisis in the Red Sea, resulting in exorbitant freight charges. These disruptions affected various trade routes, causing congestion at U.S. ports on both the east and west coasts, impediments in the Panama Canal, and rate increases on alternative routes. Attacks on cargo vessels by Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea compelled shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal route, opting for longer alternative routes instead. Despite a marginal slowdown in the depletion of input and finished goods inventories mid-quarter, the pace accelerated in March due to rising international demand and declining freight costs.
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and the subsequent closure of the Port of Baltimore on March 26, as analyzed by ChemAnalyst experts, are expected to have significant and widespread repercussions across the country, particularly impacting the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Looking forward, these ports may experience increased activity, further resulting in price increase.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin B12 market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region exhibited promising growth, particularly in China, where prices climbed from $1,360,000 per metric ton in January to $1,410,500 per metric ton FOB Shanghai by March. This positive momentum marked a significant turnaround from the challenges faced in the fourth quarter of 2023, which included subdued end-user demand, limited new inquiries, and surplus inventory. However, starting from mid-January 2024, demand began to rise steadily and maintained momentum through March, signaling a recovery in market sentiment.
In the first quarter of 2024, the market showed marked improvement with rising prices, indicative of a more balanced relationship between supply and demand. This upward trend enabled participants in the Chinese market to maintain healthy profit margins throughout the quarter. Even during the Lunar Chinese New Year holidays, the domestic Vitamin B12 market remained buoyant, supported by robust manufacturing activities and the availability of fresh inventory. Furthermore, the global demand for Vitamin B12, particularly from the pharmaceutical and other sectors, has added layers of complexity to the supply-demand dynamics, further influencing market trends.
Despite challenges such as declining consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, youth unemployment, reduced exports, and a decline in foreign investment, China's manufacturing output remained resilient. The Vitamin B12 market in China saw notable improvements, characterized by an uptick in demand and an increase in manufacturing output. During the latter half of the quarter, demand from international end-user industries began to rise, even amidst supply chain disruptions. Domestic sellers and traders capitalized on this opportunity, achieving healthy profit margins despite the prevailing challenges.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Vitamin B12 market in Europe encountered notable challenges, largely attributable to disruptions in trade routes and conservative consumer spending patterns. These trade disruptions, stemming from persistent disturbances in the Red Sea, led to shipment delays and escalated freight expenses, consequently affecting market prices. At the onset of the quarter in January, prices stood at $1,545,000/mt. However, by March, they had risen to $1,570,000/mt, indicating a substantial upward trend over the period.
At the commencement of Q1 2024, a decline in demand from end-user sectors such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals, compounded the market challenges in Germany. Furthermore, an oversupply situation in the market prompted sellers to lower prices to expedite inventory clearance until January end. Despite this, prices began to rebound in February, reaching $1,565,000/mt by month-end. The Chinese New Year celebrations in mid-February contributed to the price uptick, with many Chinese suppliers adjusting their prices ahead of the market hiatus. Concurrently, the prolonged disruptions in the Red Sea further hampered trade routes between Asia and Europe, leading to escalated freight costs and influencing the pricing landscape of Vitamin B12 in Germany.
Consequently, the German market witnessed significant price volatility during this period. Importers in Germany found themselves grappling with rising costs due to the heightened Vitamin B12 prices in China with the major reason affecting their supply chains i.e., trade disruptions.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the current Q4 of 2023, the North American Vitamin B12 market remained unbalanced and subdued with trajectory going down. The market exhibited no significant variations in activity, primarily due to the imbalance between the supply and demand for Vitamin B12 and various other supplements. The oversupply of Vitamin B12 contributed to a slower expansion in demand, despite an increase in both US stocks and wholesale stocks last month.
The industry faced challenges from diminishing demand for commodities, including nutraceuticals, influenced by rising interest rates and consumer confidence. Despite the robustness of the US labor market, characterized by job additions and a decline in unemployment rates, the impact of rising interest rates and inflationary pressures led to a dampened consumer sentiment, affecting the nation’s dietary supplement market. Vitamin B12 prices started the quarter at $1,840,000/MT and concluded at $1,665,000/MT CFR Los Angeles, indicating an overall decline. Import levels in Q4 2023 surpassed those of Q4 2022, hinting that retailers may have completed destocking and were preparing for the holiday season in December.
By the quarter's end, the performance of the US economy in 2023 was considered "remarkable." Despite concerns about controlling inflation and potential job losses, the US economy successfully avoided a recession and demonstrated accelerated growth. Increased consumer demand in the United States, coupled with escalated freight charges, potentially influenced by the Israel-Hamas conflict, led to price hikes in the Vitamin B12 industry in the final weeks of December, whose impact will be visible from the beginning of Q1 2024.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Vitamin B12 market in the Asia-Pacific region displayed distinct trends, with some products experiencing price increases while others saw declines. Overall, Q4 2023 witnessed a downward price trend for Vitamin B12 in China. This was attributed to an imbalance in the market caused by reduced demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries, particularly notable in November. In contrast, India's nutraceutical market expanded due to improved economic conditions, heightened production levels, and increased new business inflows. Despite increased production, China experienced significant price decreases attributed to sluggish demand both locally and globally. Another indication of the decline in Vitamin B12 demand in China's pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors was the absence of fresh inquiries from overseas markets in the initial half of the quarter. From October to December, Vitamin B12 prices in China fell from $1,516,250/MT to $1,434,000/MT FOB-Shanghai. December brought attention to China's economy with improvements in the PMI and increased consumer confidence, accompanied by a gradual price uptick. In China, the nutraceutical market showed mixed outcomes throughout the year, with certain product categories declining while others recovered.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the European Vitamin B12 market witnessed a decline in prices. The market was adversely affected by high supply levels, as domestic businesses held substantial inventories to meet demand and alleviate concerns of potential shortages before the December holiday season. Furthermore, diminished end-user demand and the ample availability of Vitamin B12 in the domestic market were significant contributors to the price reduction. However, from October to December, Vitamin B12 prices decreased from USD 1,690,000/MT to $1,590,000/MT CFR Hamburg in the German market. The decrease in demand from Germany's downstream industries during the month was primarily due to significant stockpiles maintained by domestic companies, despite minimal shifts in market dynamics. A key influencing factor in these market dynamics was China, a major exporter, which lowered the price of Vitamin B12. Consequently, German importers benefitted from reduced prices when procuring Vitamin B12 supplements, leading to a corresponding decrease in prices within the local market. Additionally, the lack of fresh inquiries from end-user industries such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals nationwide prompted local sellers to offer the product at relatively lower prices.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
With advancing from $1887750/mt to $1902400/mt from July to September, CFR Los Angeles values for Vitamin B12 demonstrated an increase of ~1% over that time frame, capping up the third quarter of 2023 on a bullish note. The domestic market for this nutraceutical swung upward throughout the quarter due to the persistent increase in demand for Vitamin B12 from the end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors. The low to modest inventory levels, which only forced the sellers to increase their quotations by margins each month, are by far the most significant reason supporting the positive price trend of Vitamin B12 in the United States. The cost of importing nutraceuticals increased in the second half of the quarter due to currency fluctuations of the US dollar vs Yuan. While inflation had a slight cooldown during the third quarter of 2023 as a result of the United States economy's complete turnabout, the Fed Reserve's increase in interest rates kept market participants on their toes. Beginning in the first week of July, there was a sharp rise in the price of warehousing, warehouse utilization, and inventory in the United States. As a result, commodities like vitamin B12 went up in price as the cost of inventory and storage soared. In conclusion, Chinese vendors upped their price quotations ahead of China's golden week and mid-autumn vacations at the beginning of October in response to the increasing demand from abroad, especially in the US, which caused the price quotations to rise even further.
Asia Pacific
With prices rising from $1506700/mt to $1547400/mt from July to September, the price trajectory for vitamin B12 in the third quarter of 2023 showed a strong trend toward higher prices. The second-largest economy in the world experienced slower growth than anticipated in the first half of 2023, losing steam in the second half of the year and starting the third quarter of 2023 on an unfavorable note due to worsening deflation, high youth unemployment, and weak foreign demand. Although there have been a number of factors contributing to China's price increase for vitamin B12 this quarter, the two that have been most significant are string currency (stronger Yuan (RMB)) against the USD and increased local demand from end-user businesses. During Q3 2023, the nation's dietary supplement business was significantly impacted by higher requests for Vitamin B12 from pharmaceutical and nutraceutical suppliers. The strengthening of the Yuan and the drop in the value of the US dollar raised the cost of exporting nutraceuticals, including vitamin B12, which resulted in higher costs for both the local and foreign markets. In terms of inventory, the market players who have satisfied the general demand have kept supplies moderate to low, and manufacturing production remained consistent over the course of the period. In the latter weeks of September, before the Golden Week holidays, there was a little uptick in both freight and manufacturing due to a spike in demand and inquiries.
Europe
The price of vitamin B12 showed a stable trend in the third quarter of 2023, with values mildly increasing from $1732800/mt to $1740500/mt from July to September. In July, as things started to settle down and the economy started to improve, the German providers of vitamin B12 started making significant orders to stock up on new inventory and to satisfy the rising demand throughout the nation. However, according to industry experts, the German manufacturing sector was still having trouble as the third quarter started. Given the new inquiries from domestic pharmaceutical and nutraceutical companies, the import of vitamin B12 from Asia, notably China, remained favorable throughout the quarter. Depreciation of the currency (the Euro) has also been a major factor in Germany's price increase since the strong US dollar has forced domestic players to pay high prices when importing goods from China. On the economic front, high inflation and Germany's poor manufacturing environment continued to be the key factors holding back growth, and market investors continued to take a wait-and-see stance.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The North American Vitamin B12 market displayed an incremented price trajectory during the second quarter of 2023. The price negotiations for CFR Los Angeles escalated from $1830500 per MT to $1870900 per MT from April '23 to June '23, demonstrating a significant incline of 2.2% over the course of the quarter. As the inflation rate eased somewhat at the end of Q1 2023, the demand for Vitamin B12 surged considerably after that across the nation, especially at the beginning of May, resulting in a soaring incline in the values. However, despite falling energy prices, there is still significant underlying inflation, well above the Federal Reserve's target, according to industry experts. Despite the mixed sentiment in vitamin prices, the country's nutraceuticals market has shown market patterns. Compared to a loss of 1.9% over the previous 12 months, the USDX has lost 2.5% for the year as of May 12, 2023. As a result, the US dollar became strong and captured demand, giving buyers and wholesalers the opportunity to profit from both the potential and volatility of the nation's nutraceuticals market. Strikes have impacted the Port of Los Angeles in the second half of Q2 2023 as contract negotiations between employers and workers stalled, which has the potential to hamper trade in the near future further.
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific's Vitamin B12 market demonstrated optimistic sentiments in the second quarter of 2023. Having witnessed the fall, the price negotiations for FOB Shanghai began to escalate, rising from $1446350 per metric tonne to $1502340 per metric tonne between April and June of 2023. This price escalation has been in place since the middle of the second quarter of 2023, as demand for vitamin B12 from the end-users pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors has increased both domestically and internationally. As a result of the enhanced demand from both regional and international buyers, China's vitamin B12 producers were encouraged to sell the product at higher margins. In the second half of the quarter, China's nutraceutical market has seen a resurgence as businesses have expanded, not only from a domestic perspective but also from an international one. Given the sudden increase in demand and inquiries in the last few weeks, there was a shortage of supply from local suppliers, which was the other factor driving up prices. China's manufacturing activity contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a slower pace, stats showed, as pressure mounts on the authorities to unleash more stimulus to support the nation's economy. Analysts have begun to downgrade their forecasts for China's economy for the rest of the year after May industrial production and retail sales data missed expectations, a sign that the post-pandemic recovery seen in the first quarter is losing steam.
Europe
The second quarter of 2023 for the German Vitamin B12 market was not as optimistic as previously predicted, as price discussions for CFR Hamburg fell slightly from $1715500 per tonne to $1705500 per tonne. Since the start of the energy crisis, gas prices in Europe have fallen to their lowest levels in April, increasing optimism for a stronger economic recovery, which in turn has led to improved trade from Asia. However, due to more than sufficient stocks of vitamin B12 at domestic processors amid low demand, price negotiations eased somewhat in the second half of Q2 2023. Given the slight improvement in European economic conditions, the European Union (EU) has made a decision to reduce its dependence on Chinese imports by boosting the nation's manufacturing industry. In order to avoid potential future shortages, they collected supplies in warehouses, prompting them to cut their price margins to reduce their inventories later. Inflation in Germany rose again in June by more than 6%, but its impact on the country's nutraceuticals industry is yet to be seen. According to several industry experts, weaker-than-hoped-for economic performance in China since the reopening of the country from strict COVID-19 restrictions, a looming US recession, and continued monetary tightening appear to be weighing on German business sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The pricing trend for Vitamin B12 displayed mixed sentiments at the beginning of the first quarter of 2023, with prices estimated in January 2023 at $2073350/MT and March 2023 at $2005780/MT CFR California, respectively. Following the previous quarter's market volatility, market participants had anticipated that the choppy waters would continue to hang over the pharmaceutical and nutraceuticals market during the first quarter of 2023. The market dynamics were kept in check by sustained end-user demand and low to moderate inquiries from downstream suppliers. The first half of the quarter was positively influenced by the lifting of the zero-Covid Ban in China in the first week of January as the supply chain and trade continued to strengthen, resulting in a decline in freight costs. Businesses in the US increased employment in January, and wages rose as a result of a sustained severe labor shortage. Because of a downturn in local consumer demand and record high warehouse stockpiles in the second half of the quarter, domestic merchants reduced manufacturing orders by as much as 40%.
Asia Pacific
In Asia Pacific, the first quarter of 2023 proved to be advantageous for China as the country's decision to abolish stringent COVID-19 restrictions in the first week of January gave the trillion-dollar economy, which had suffered greatly over the previous four years, new vigor. In the domestic Chinese market, however, the price pattern during the first quarter of 2023 was downward, with FOB Shanghai prices falling from $1725575/MT in January to $1611000/MT in March. Following a week-long Lunar Holiday, the price of Vitamin B12 in the domestic market for nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals experienced a roll-over sentiment for two consecutive weeks in January. Technically speaking, the markets returned from vacation on a strong note with increased local and international orders and shipments. After the markets recovered from the covid-induced lull and a week-long celebration, a sharp downturn in manufacturing was seen in China during the second half of 2022. The declining end-user demand from both local and foreign markets is mostly to blame for China's fall.
Europe
During the Q1 of 2023, prices for Vitamin B12 were estimated at $1799960 per MT in January 2023 and $1795600 per MT in March 2023, respectively. With an increase in orders and shipments from both local and foreign markets, the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries in Europe started the first quarter on a positive note. The local market's participants detected positive arbitrage in the majority of the quarter because the forecast for supply and demand looked positive. As inflation pressures reduced during a protracted period of the Russia-Ukraine war and China's surprise covid re-opening, the European market has shown optimistic indicators together with the improvement in end-user demand from both producers and suppliers, paving the way for a swift recovery in activity. The cost of shipping containers between Asia and Europe has also drastically decreased in the second half of the quarter to pre-pandemic levels or below, illustrating strong demand and supply dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2022, prices for Vitamin B12 continued to decline as a result of the long-drawn-out turmoil in the US domestic market, with CFR Los Angeles prices falling from $2230500/MT to $2173100/MT from October to December. The first week of October saw an interruption in imports from China due to the Golden Week holidays, so many domestic shops had to increase their price quotations to keep up with the persistent demand. Through most of the quarter, the tiebreakers—which included China's Covid lockdowns, Russia's conflict in Ukraine, growing US inflation, and severe weather—continued to endanger weak supply chains. In the second half of 2022, the U.S. supply chain progressively improved as the economy began to recover and the port of Los Angeles on the west coast dramatically reduced ship backlogs. Prices started to drop in November along all US supply chains, easing inflationary pressures. The US supply chains became more adaptable because of weaker shipping demand brought on by slower consumer spending and a decline in manufacturing activity in December.
Asia Pacific
During Q4 of 2022, the domestic Vitamin B12 market in China displayed indications of decline as FOB Shanghai discussions fell from $1765500/MT to $1711700/MT from October to December. China's manufacturing sector contracted at a low pace during October, along with the lowest export orders, as a result of the shutdown of industrial facilities over the Golden Week during the first week of October. Chinese traders returning from the Golden Week holiday also had to deal with a range of contradictory signals, which reduced the market's chances of catching up to the small gain recorded in some industries during the first half of Q4. In China, the Dual Control on Energy Consumption raised costs in the second half of Q4 2022 for a number of products, including Vitamin B12. With a sufficient number of inventories on hand, domestic producers and suppliers were able to satisfy the entire domestic demand during the quarter. Covid-19 cases began to arise in China's major manufacturing hubs when the government decided to relax its zero-covid laws in reaction to widespread protest and general turmoil in the nation, which once again put the nation in troubled waters.
Europe
The European vitamin B12 market exhibited a steady trend in the fourth quarter of 2022, with CFR Hamburg values assembling at $1785030/MT in December. In October, despite rising energy prices and supply-chain delays, industrial production in Germany barely increased. However, the problems with COVID-19 and the situation in Russia and Ukraine all continued to have a negative impact on output. Demand-wise, offtakes remained favorable in the end-user industries, but the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors were still suffering from the growing cost of raw materials and energy. The second half of Q4 2022 saw stronger trade flows in Germany and the greater eurozone as a result of some breathing room, but this did not indicate that market fundamentals have balanced.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The American market for Vitamin B12 began the third quarter of 2022 on a positive note, with prices assembled at $2320500 per MT in July. However, these figures ultimately dropped in September and were settled at $2150500 per MT. The recurrent lockdowns in China, from which the majority of nutraceutical items are imported, forced manufacturers of Vitamin B12 to cut their prices. As a result, downstream demand in the US actually decreased during the second half of the quarter. In the final week of July, a large number of Chinese industrial facilities were shut down for maintenance, which significantly decreased imports into the US. This had a major impact on the downward pricing trend and the dropping demand in the closing weeks of the third quarter.
Asia Pacific
The price trend for Vitamin B12 in the Asia Pacific market demonstrated a downward trajectory in the third quarter of 2022. Numerous factors, such as low raw material costs, subdued consumer spending, and weak end-user industry demand, have contributed to this price trend. During the first half, big suppliers only made orders for immediate use, and in July, FOB Shanghai prices came to $2235450 per MT. This was caused by both the subpar offtakes and the weak downstream demand. However, after the markets resumed operations in the final week of July following the shutdown, some factories that make vitamins underwent maintenance, which reduced the amount of Vitamin B12 available for domestic and international suppliers. Later, the local market's downstream pharma and Nutra demand declined, with values settling at $2065450 per MT in September.
Europe
In Germany, the third quarter of 2022 saw a decline in the price of Vitamin B12, with CFR Hamburg values settled at $1921090/MT in July and then falling even further to $1756790/MT in September. As transportation bottlenecks persisted, Germany's logistical issues exacerbated the country's economic downturn this quarter. The situation in Europe got worse as a result of the ongoing lockdowns in Chinese ports and the unrest in Russia and Ukraine. Due to the sluggish demand from end users of the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries in the second half of the third quarter, domestic merchants were forced to lower their quotations.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The market trend for vitamin B12 in North America showed signs of stagnation in the second quarter of 2022. The COVID shutdown in China's commercial centers significantly slowed imports and worsened an already-existing supply crunch. Domestic retailers and buyers were concerned about high raw material prices throughout the quarter due to rising inflation in the US, the problematic political situation between Russia and Ukraine, and the extremely unpredictable nature of oil prices. The rapid shift in oil prices in May led to a gradual rise in import, consumer, and production spending. Despite the Asian blockades, ocean cargo from China seemed to be moving through the country's major ports without any problems in June. But during the quarter, demand from the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries remained strong.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, the price trend for vitamin B12 slowed considerably during the second quarter of 2022. After its factories and ports opened, China's domestic market saw a dramatic increase in vitamin B2 production during the first part of the quarter. China's government put large production facilities on lockdown after a surge in COVID-19 cases during the latter week of April, which had a variety of impacts on the country's nutraceutical markets. Demand for offtakes from the end-user industries remained steady during the quarter. The country's Zero-COVID policy caused several cargo ships to become stuck at ports, thus hindering the shipment of the goods to other markets. In order to get rid of stockpiles before they degraded due to the high COVID customs, numerous factories were prepared to offer the goods at a discount toward the end of the quarter.
Europe
Despite price reductions that started at the end of June, the Vitamin B12 market in the European region remained favorable during the second quarter of 2022. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine increased freight costs and hindered goods flow into Europe, further hampering trade from importing countries. Demand from end-user industries, such as the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, remained steady during the entire quarter. However, there was enough stock at the suppliers to satisfy all domestic demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The domestic market in the United States began the first quarter of 2022 on a positive note, with prices rising from USD2249470/mt to USD2310115/mt between January and March. Due to constant volume input, end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical businesses saw solid offtakes throughout the quarter. The delayed shipment of cargoes from Asia following the Festive Holidays due to the Omicron outbreak, as well as backlogs at ports, affected US market sentiments during the mid-quarter. Following the protracted supply disruption, market participants were observed keeping a tight eye on freight charges as a result of higher oil prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Later, the U.S. administration also brought several stimulus measures in light that the federal government could take to control freight transportation in the upcoming weeks.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, the prices of Vitamin B12 followed an upward trend in Q1 of 2022 on the back of the consistent intake in the downstream industries. Following the Lunar New Year celebrations, markets in China went silent for nearly a week in early late February as producers destocked their inventory to avoid loss aversion ahead of the spring festival breaks. Later in H2, however, the markets recovered with improved sentiments and rising demand. Vitamin B12 was valued at USD2293995 per MT in the month of March. Demand from the downstream nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries remained stable throughout Q1 2022. The domestic market was also hampered by supply delays and port congestions, which was aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict that erupted in the last week of February. However, the supplies were sufficient to meet overall domestic demand as dealers filled their shelves in preparation for the holiday season.
Europe
In Europe, the domestic market for Vitamin B12 remained vibrant across the region in Q1 2022, owing to consistent offtakes in downstream sectors. During the quarter, rising raw material costs and a lengthy supply chain interruption from Asian markets influenced market sentiment. Due to a scarcity of feedstock sources and high input costs as a result of the peaking energy crisis, domestic manufacturers were obliged to trade Vitamin B12 at high prices. Elevated production costs due to high feed prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the second half of Q1 further supported the Vitamin B12 price trend in Europe. Vitamin E FOB prices in Germany were estimated at USD2305500 per MT in January.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
During the 4th quarter of 2021, the overall market of vitamin B12 demonstrated an improvement across the North American region. The prices of Vitamin B12 escalated from USD 2259050/mt to USD 2260750/mt CFR Los Angeles from October to December. Improved logistics and robust demand for the product have prompted the market participants to keep up their margins in Q4 2021. The market movement of Vitamin B12 remained muted during December in the US domestic market, and the downstream buyers have actively participated in the year-end sale of various nutraceutical products, including Vitamins in China. The price competitiveness amongst the Chinese manufacturers soared significantly in the ending week of December, which further supported the price trend of quarter 4 in the US.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 of 2021, the pricing trend of Vitamin B12 showcased an upward trajectory across the Asia Pacific region, followed by the increased demand from the downstream industries. In the Chinese domestic market, the prices of Vitamin B12 witnessed a hike of 10% and shot up from USD 2181912/MT to USD 2418900/MT FOB Qingdao from October to December. The surging raw material prices in the country have kept the market sentiments buoyed in the offered quotations from the manufacturers. The boost in the production capacity of coal in the month of December has curbed the power rationing, with a significant impact on the production cost of Vitamin B12 in the domestic market. However, in the week ending of December, inquiries from the domestic and overseas market increased as the suppliers were seen destocking their running inventories ahead of the year-end. In India, Vitamin B12 Ex-Mumbai prices increased from USD 2821824/MT to USD 2845896/MT during the fourth quarter. As Vitamin B12 is an imported commodity in India, despite disturbance in production activities in China, the market had ample stocks to cater to the overall need of the consumers.
Europe
The domestic European market observed an upward momentum in the fourth quarter of 2021 following the price trend of the USA, which gradually gained numbers during the mid-week of November. The soaring prices of raw materials, peaking energy crises, and high shipping charges compelled to trade the product at increased prices. The additional supply disruptions amid the low availability of containers further supported the pricing trend in the country in q4. In terms of demand, offtakes from the downstream nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries remained strong throughout the quarter.
