For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the Urea prices in the USA saw a steady upward trend, driven by tight supply and strong seasonal demand. Despite volatility in Ammonia feedstock costs, prices stayed elevated due to production cuts from extreme winter weather. Force majeure declarations by key producers like OCI Beaumont LLC and CF Industries, along with freight disruptions, limited domestic availability. Agricultural demand also picked up as farmers stockpiled ahead of spring planting, especially for crops such as rice and sorghum.
However, irregular weather patterns, including drought concerns and planting delays, led to cautious buying later in the quarter. On the global front, reduced output from Europe and China, coupled with speculation over potential fertilizer tariffs, added to the market’s uncertainty.
This combination of factors—weather-related supply constraints, logistical hurdles, and shifting agricultural sentiment—shaped a price environment marked by upward pressure and cautious optimism throughout the quarter. The overall market reflected a delicate balance between demand recovery and supply limitations
APAC
The Asian Urea market exhibited price volatility during Q1 2025, with China experiencing the most notable fluctuations. In the early part of the quarter, Chinese Urea prices witnessed a modest decline, primarily due to improved supply conditions. Production gradually recovered as several domestic manufacturers resumed operations following scheduled maintenance shutdowns, leading to higher operating rates and increased Urea availability. This supply expansion, however, was met with weak demand, particularly from key downstream sectors such as fertilizers and chemicals, resulting in excess inventory and downward price pressure. Toward the end of the quarter, prices in China rebounded, driven by a rise in restocking activity from domestic consumers amid growing demand for downstream derivatives, especially UAN, ahead of the spring application season. In contrast, importing countries in Asia, such as Japan, recorded a consistent decline in Urea prices throughout the quarter. This trend was largely supported by reduced freight costs, which eased overall import expenses and contributed to sustained downward pressure on prices.
Europe
During Q1 2025, the European Urea market saw a steady rise in prices, mainly due to persistent supply constraints and seasonal demand. Production was limited as major manufacturers like SKW Piesteritz faced operational challenges, while labor strikes, port closures, and delayed cargoes further tightened availability. In January, demand remained low amid harsh winter weather and limited agricultural activity. However, by February and March, restocking began as buyers prepared for the spring planting season, supporting a recovery in consumption. International demand, especially from Latin America, added further momentum to the price rally. Geopolitical tensions and the European Commission’s proposed tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers heightened uncertainty, making procurement more complex. Even though port operations started to normalize by mid-March, Urea supply remained constrained, keeping prices elevated. Overall, the market was shaped by a blend of logistical disruptions, tight production, and growing seasonal demand, resulting in a bullish trend that persisted throughout the quarter across the European region.
South America
During Q1 2025, the South American Urea market exhibited notable volatility. Prices climbed steadily through January and February, largely driven by supply constraints in the United States—one of Brazil’s primary suppliers. Severe winter weather across key U.S. production regions disrupted manufacturing and logistics operations, leading to significant delays and a reduction in export volumes. This disruption coincided with robust domestic demand in Brazil, particularly from the agricultural sector, which depends heavily on Urea during the peak planting season. The combination of reduced import availability and sustained consumption led to tightened market conditions and upward price momentum. However, as the quarter progressed into March, market sentiment shifted. Seasonal demand began to taper off following the completion of primary fertilizer applications, while persistent unfavorable weather conditions in parts of Brazil further dampened agricultural activity and fertilizer use. These developments eased pressure on Urea prices, leading to stabilization and slight correction toward the end of the quarter, as both demand and import constraints began to moderate.
MEA
During Q1 2025, the South American Urea market witnessed pronounced price fluctuations. Prices climbed steadily through January and February, supported by strong international demand for Middle Eastern Urea. Anticipated procurement activity from India, which issued a tender for over 1 million tonnes, further contributed to bullish sentiment. Supply disruptions in the United States due to extreme winter weather compounded the tightening of global supply, supporting the upward trajectory in South American prices. However, as the quarter progressed into March, the market reversed course. A notable easing in feedstock Ammonia prices led to reduced production rates in some regions, adding downward pressure to Urea values. Domestically, the conclusion of the peak agricultural season in Brazil resulted in a natural tapering of fertilizer demand. Severe rainfall across parts of South America disrupted logistics and field applications, prompting buyers to defer purchases. This cautious procurement approach was reinforced by reduced demand from key export markets, particularly India, where fertilizer imports slowed following the end of its planting season.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Urea market demonstrated fluctuating price trends during Q4 2024, reflecting stability in November and December after experiencing a marginal surge in October. The price remained stagnant initially, despite fluctuating feedstock costs for Ammonia, Nitric Acid and Ammonia. Subdued seasonal demand from the fertilizer sector contributed to the lack of price movement, with agricultural activities declining as the planting season faded. However, demand for industrial applications, particularly in mining and explosives, remained steady, supporting market resilience. On the supply side, logistical challenges such as adverse weather, hurricanes, and low Mississippi River water levels constrained production and imports. Persistent bottlenecks, including a labour strike in Canada, further limited supply availability, though effective inventory management mitigated severe shortages.
However, in October, slight supply tightness coupled with a modest rise in feedstock prices led to a gradual price increase for Urea. Despite consistent industrial demand, purchasing activity for fertilizers remained cautious, with buyers delaying significant commitments in anticipation of more favourable pricing during winter fill and spring prepay periods.
Overall, Q4 showcased a balanced interplay of demand and supply, with steady industrial consumption offsetting seasonal agricultural weakness and supply chain constraints.
Asia-Pacific
Asian Urea prices exhibited pronounced volatility throughout the final quarter of 2024. Prices escalated during the initial two months, driven by robust international demand, particularly from India, which placed significant pressure on regional supply levels. In China, logistical challenges such as severe port congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, coupled with heavy rainfall and rising freight costs, further exacerbated the price surge. Supply chain disruptions were intensified by vessel bunching and prolonged waiting times, compounding market tightness. Adverse weather conditions across the southern Asia-Pacific region, including typhoons in China and Japan, led to substantial production disruptions. Excessive rainfall forced several manufacturing facilities to declare force majeure, resulting in reduced production output and a notable Urea shortage in the region. Despite these challenges, prices declined toward the end of the quarter due to subdued year-end purchasing activities. India, a key fertilizer consumer, had fulfilled most of its requirements through contractual tenders, leaving minimal spot market demand. This drops in purchasing activity eased price pressures, stabilizing the market.
Europe
European Urea prices have experienced a decline due to weak demand from key sectors such as agriculture, compounded by oversupply conditions and logistical disruptions. Despite rising Ammonia feedstock costs and supply constraints, including the shutdown of a Norwegian gas platform, production levels have been curtailed. However, ample inventories continue to exert downward pressure on prices. In the UK, a notable price surge occurred in December 2024, primarily driven by supply chain disruptions and delays in exports from significant European suppliers. Despite this, buyer interest remained inconsistent, with fluctuating weather conditions playing a role in shaping demand patterns. In both Europe and the UK, demand has remained weak, with the agricultural sector showing cautious purchasing behavior. This is further exacerbated by uncertainties surrounding the upcoming winter planting season and ongoing logistical issues, such as port congestion. These dynamics highlight a market under strain, where supply is outpacing demand, and economic factors like high input costs and unpredictable weather continue to influence future price trends.
South America
The South American Urea market, particularly in Brazil, has recently seen a notable price surge during Q4. This upward trend is largely attributed to a widening gap between supply and demand, driven by the El Niño phenomenon, which brought milder weather and prompted increased fertilizer purchasing activity. The agricultural sector's preparations for planting seasons have further sustained demand for Urea, essential for fertilizers and industrial applications. On the supply side, global challenges have significantly tightened Urea availability. Reduced exports from North America, particularly Canada, due to logistical disruptions, and modest contributions from the U.S., have exacerbated the constrained supply outlook. Additionally, elevated natural gas and Ammonia prices, critical Urea feedstocks, have increased production costs globally, with these expenses reflected in Brazilian import prices. Logistical issues, including shipping delays and rising freight costs, have further amplified the cost burden for Brazilian buyers. Given Brazil's heavy reliance on imports, Urea prices are expected to remain elevated unless supply conditions improve or feedstock prices stabilize.
MEA
The price of Middle Eastern Urea exhibited volatility during Q4 2024, with notable price increases observed in the first two months of the quarter. This surge was driven by volatile freight charges, reduced availability of imported material, and steady yet moderate downstream demand. Maintenance activities at Ma’aden, both planned and unplanned, significantly impacted export availability, reducing output by approximately 96,000 tons. This prompted a revision of the company’s 2024 production target to 3.0–3.2 million tons of nitrogen based fertilizers slightly down from the previous forecast. This adjustment, reflecting a 6% - 7%% supply decline, underscored the impact of these disruptions on Urea availability across domestic and export markets. Firm demand from key importing markets, particularly India, further supported the need for sustained exports. Major producers in Saudi Arabia, including Sabic Agri-Nutrients and Ma’aden, were projected to load a combined 250,000 tonnes during the quarter’s initial months. However, prices declined towards the quarter's end as subdued year-end purchasing activities eased market pressure. India, having secured most of its fertilizer needs via contractual tenders, contributed to the reduced spot demand, stabilizing prices.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in Urea prices in North America, driven by several critical factors. Supply constraints arose from production cuts at multiple Urea plants, exacerbated by adverse weather conditions that disrupted logistics and transportation networks.
In August 2024, a critical shortage became apparent in the North American market, largely due to reduced imports of essential feedstock Ammonia from Trinidad, a key supplier to the United States. As the quarter progressed, the North American fertilizer industry adopted a cautious approach in response to ongoing adverse weather conditions, including hurricanes and thunderstorms. Although Hurricane Francine affected southern Louisiana, market reports indicated that most of the state’s fertilizer sector managed to weather the storm without significant disruption. However, the industry remained vigilant in anticipation of another tropical storm, raising concerns about potential further disruptions.
By the end of the quarter, the price for Urea FOB Illinois in the USA reached USD 345/MT, reinforcing the prevailing positive pricing environment.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 has been marked by a significant decline in Urea prices across the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China and Japan, which experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations. Several factors have contributed to this downward trend, including subdued demand due to adverse weather conditions, reduced export opportunities, and persistent global trade uncertainties. In the Chinese market, the narrowing disparity between demand and supply emerged as a critical factor behind the price dip. The ongoing prohibition on Urea exports from China remains firmly in place, allowing only a limited number of shipments under government-to-government (G2G) agreements. This restriction has resulted in stockpiled inventories of Urea within the Chinese market, while fading seasonal demand further supported the downward price trajectory. Similarly, Japan faced challenges during this quarter due to typhoons and storms that adversely impacted already planted crops, leading consumers to adopt a cautious approach toward further purchases. As a result of these dynamics, the latest quarter-ending price for Granular Urea CFR Tokyo stood at USD 339/MT, underscoring the prevailing downward pricing environment in the region. This trend reflects the complex interplay of supply constraints and reduced demand amid significant weather-related disruptions.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Urea market exhibited stable pricing, reflecting a neutral sentiment shaped by various influencing factors. Increased demand from both international and domestic markets, spurred by improved weather conditions and the absence of Chinese exports, played a pivotal role in supporting market prices. This surge in demand created a favorable environment for traders to capitalize on the limited supply, contributing to a gradual upward trajectory in prices. Russia experienced the most significant price fluctuations within the region, aligning with the overall market trends observed during the quarter. Despite the stable pricing environment, it is noteworthy that the quarter recorded a 16% decrease in prices compared to the same period last year, indicating a shift in market dynamics. Ultimately, the quarter-ending price of USD 312/MT for Granular FON Yuzhunyy in Russia encapsulates the stability and equilibrium observed throughout the region. This pricing reflects the delicate balance between supply and demand amid evolving market conditions, highlighting the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the European Urea market.
South America
Throughout Q3 2024, the South American Urea market exhibited a mixed pricing trend, with Brazil being the most significantly affected region. In the first month of the quarter, Urea prices surged by USD 13/MT, driven by elevated freight charges in the global market and a shortage of supplies. However, as the quarter progressed, prices began to decline. The reduction in demand from the domestic fertilizer market, coupled with seasonal fluctuations, further contributed to the downward pricing trend. As the harvesting of summer-planted crops approached completion, overall conditions were favorable in most regions. However, the southeastern part of Brazil faced challenges due to earlier hot and dry weather, adversely impacting crop yields. This seasonal lull in fertilizer demand is typical following major planting and harvesting cycles, leading to decreased purchasing activity among farmers. Additionally, severe weather, including storms in parts of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, disrupted agricultural operations, further influencing demand dynamics. By the end of the quarter, the price for Granular Urea CFR Manaus in Brazil stood at USD 345/MT, reflecting a consistent downward trend in pricing throughout Q3 2024. This trend underscores the ongoing challenges faced by the market amid shifting agricultural conditions and fluctuating demand.
MEA
Middle Eastern Urea prices demonstrated varied trends throughout Q3. Prices increased during the initial and final months of the quarter, supported by moderate international demand, particularly from India. The absence of China from the global Urea export market significantly impacted demand dynamics in the Middle East, prompting international buyers to secure Urea supplies in preparation for the upcoming planting season, thereby driving prices higher. Additionally, demand from Australia, Africa, and Nepal was notable, along with increased interest in short covering and inquiries from Latin America. Supply constraints were influenced by Ma’aden, a major Ammonia producer, extending its maintenance turnaround until the second-to-last week of September 2024, resulting in temporary shortages of raw materials. Moreover, ongoing military and political conflicts in the region further hindered production activities, intensifying supply challenges. Despite these disruptions, Urea prices declined on a month-on-month basis in August 2024. By the end of the quarter, the price of Urea FOB Al Jubail was recorded at USD 335 per metric ton.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The North American urea market exhibited a mixed trend throughout Q2 2024. Prices declined during the initial two months of the quarter, followed by an increase in the final month. This downturn in prices can be attributed to several key factors. Primarily, there was restrained demand from major downstream fertilizer markets, compounded by extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves and geomagnetic storms, which disrupted agricultural activities and reduced consumer purchasing power.
Additionally, an oversupply of urea contributed to the price decline, as manufacturing units continued to operate at full capacity and maintain ample stock levels despite weakened demand. The international market also played a role, with muted demand from Europe due to adverse weather conditions further contributing to the downward pressure on prices. However, a notable turnaround occurred in the final month of the quarter. Urea prices increased by 2.3% on a month-to-month basis, driven by the approaching peak planting season which stimulated renewed demand from the downstream fertilizer market.
Furthermore, China's ongoing absence from the fertilizer export market led to increased activity from Asian buyers in North America, enhancing regional demand for urea. This resurgence in demand, combined with shifting market dynamics, contributed to the price increase observed at the end of the quarter.
APAC
During the second quarter of 2024, the Urea market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region witnessed a notable decline of 1.8% in prices during the first month. This decrease was driven by several key factors that influenced market dynamics. One of the primary contributors to the price reduction was the easing of freight charges, which, coupled with an abundant supply of materials, exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, export restrictions imposed by major suppliers further limited market activity, creating an environment where supply outstripped demand. This situation was exacerbated by subdued demand from the downstream fertilizer market, as peak seasonal requirements had already been met, leading to reduced procurement activity. Moreover, the demand for Urea ammonium nitrate and other derivatives was also lower, contributing to the continued decline in prices. Adverse weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and snowstorms across various regions, negatively impacted agricultural activity, further reducing the need for fertilizers. Among the APAC countries, Japan experienced the most significant price changes during this period. Despite these challenges, Urea prices stabilized during the last two months of the quarter. The demand from the downstream market remained consistent, with only a few inquiries from the fruit-growing industry observed. Concurrently, Urea production began to recover at a healthy rate, resulting in a more balanced supply and demand dynamic by the end of the quarter.
Europe
During Q2 2024, the European Urea market experienced a marked downturn in prices, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing valuations across the region. Unfavourable weather conditions, including harsh windstorms and floods, significantly dampened agricultural demand, particularly in the fertilizer sector. This decline in demand was compounded by an oversupply of Urea, driven by ample inventories and smooth cargo inflows despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants reported a notable decline in fertilizer sales across Europe, a major factor driving this stagnancy. The adverse weather conditions disrupted agricultural activities, further reducing the need for fertilizers. Consequently, the Urea market faced substantial challenges, resulting in decreased prices and an overall bearish market sentiment throughout the quarter. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties contributed to market instability, as concerns about supply chain disruptions and potential trade barriers remained prevalent. Despite these uncertainties, cargo inflows remained smooth, exacerbating the oversupply situation. The industrial sector, which is a significant consumer of Urea for various applications, also showed reduced activity. This reduction in industrial demand, along with the subdued agricultural sector, led to a decreased overall uptake from downstream sectors.
MEA
The Middle Eastern Urea market experienced divergent trend during Q2. The prices declined during the first two months of the quarter and increased during the last month. The prices declined by 10% in April 2024 and 7% from the previous month owing lower netbacks on contractual shipments to North African and Asian markets over the past few weeks. This decrease in netbacks has further contributed to the downward pressure Urea prices in the region. As the quarter progressed Urea has witnessed a significant surge in Urea prices across the Middle Eastern and African (MEA) region, driven by a confluence of factors that have reshaped market dynamics. Key among these influences is the notable increase in production costs, primarily due to the rising price of essential feedstock natural gas Geopolitical shifts, particularly China's strategic decision to halt fertilizer exports to India, have intensified demand pressures as Indian buyers seek alternative sources within the MEA region. Additionally, limited spot availability and constrained supply chains have compounded the upward price trajectory. These elements collectively underscore an environment of heightened market volatility and reduced supply elasticity, contributing to the pronounced price escalation observed this quarter.
South America
The South American Urea market experienced mixed sentiments throughout the second quarter of 2024. Prices declined significantly during the first two months of the quarter but rebounded slightly in the final month. Overall, demand for Urea remained somewhat restricted. In Brazil, the harvesting of spring-planted crops, which constitute a smaller season, is currently underway. However, yields in the Southeast region have been significantly reduced due to earlier drought conditions and high temperatures. The larger summer-planted crop is also facing challenges, with irregular rainfall and high temperatures affecting certain areas. These adverse conditions have dampened farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing fertilizers. Various surveys indicated that sales were approximately 30% below expectations by the end of April. Farmers have been prioritizing the repayment of debts incurred from planting soybeans and off-season corn over acquiring fertilizers for the next planting cycle, further constraining Urea demand. Prices surged slightly in the final month of the quarter, but demand remained limited. A key factor behind the earlier price decline was a shortage of imported material in the Brazilian market. Statistical data from market participants revealed a significant decrease in the export of agricultural products via road transport during the last week of June 2024, with a 20% decline compared to the previous month. This highlights subdued demand and low trade activity in the sector, with approximately 188,000 tons of agricultural products exported across borders by the end of June 2024.
