For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory. The prices began to increase in October, driven by a combination of factors, including rising feedstock costs, particularly crude oil prices, and increased demand from the downstream sector, particularly for solvent applications.
This upward trend was further supported by supply chain disruptions and logistical challenges, impacting supply availability. However, prices declined sharply in November, primarily due to subdued demand from the downstream sector, driven by factors such as reduced industrial activity and cautious spending. This downward trend was further exacerbated by declining demand from key downstream sectors, driven by factors such as reduced industrial activity and cautious spending.
Additionally, the impact of declining crude oil prices, a key factor influencing demand for gasoline blending, further contributed to the downward price trend. Subsequently, prices rebounded slightly in December, driven by a combination of factors, including increased demand from the downstream sector, particularly for solvent applications, and limited isobutylene supplies. This upward trend was further supported by increased demand from the automotive sector, driven by seasonal factors such as increased vehicle production and holiday travel.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the APAC market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) experienced fluctuating price trends influenced by seasonal demand, crude oil price volatility, and oversupply conditions. October began with an upward trajectory in TBA prices in China, supported by rising inquiries from other Asian countries and seasonal demand for petroleum products. However, a subsequent downturn ensued, with prices plunging by 6.8% during Golden Week due to reduced crude oil prices, weak demand, and oversupply. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel initially heightened market uncertainty but eased as tensions subsided, resulting in bearish pressure on crude oil prices. By November, TBA prices FOB Qingdao dropped 0.9%, reflecting weak consumer demand and declining gasoline terminal consumption. Higher plant operating rates contributed to oversupply, keeping prices subsided despite moderate downstream activity in MTBE production. In December, prices remained stable, with balanced supply and demand dynamics. Seasonal factors, such as colder temperatures in northern regions, led to increased private car usage and moderate support for gasoline-related products. However, cautious inventory management by operators and declining restocking enthusiasm in the downstream MTBE market limited broader price recovery.
Europe
The European Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in Q4 2024 exhibited a volatile price trajectory, driven by a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. The quarter commenced with a period of price increase driven by rising feedstock costs, particularly upstream crude oil prices, and increased demand from the downstream sector. However, prices declined sharply in November, primarily due to subdued demand from key downstream sectors, driven by factors such as sluggish industrial activity and economic pressures within the region. This downward trend was further exacerbated by declining demand from key export markets and increased competition from other exporters. Subsequently, prices rebounded slightly in December, driven by a combination of factors, including increased demand from the downstream sector, particularly for solvent applications, and limited isobutylene supplies. This upward trend was further supported by increased production costs and strict inventory management. Despite these challenges, the European TBA market demonstrated some resilience, with factors such as growing demand from the pharmaceutical and industrial cleaning sectors supporting market stability towards the end of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of this year, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in the North American region showed a mixed trend, with prices fluctuating throughout the period. In the early weeks of the quarter, TBA prices remained relatively stable, despite global crude oil market volatility. The upstream crude oil prices were affected by easing tensions in the Middle East, contributing to a steady environment for TBA pricing.
Low demand in downstream sectors, particularly in solvents and petrochemicals, also helped maintain price stability during this period. However, in the last two months, TBA prices in the region saw a significant volatility, influenced by supply challenges, weak industrial output and cautious consumer activity. Additionally, the Port of Houston's closure due to a storm disrupted Ethylene supply, exacerbating the situation.
Rising crude oil prices, fueled by geopolitical tensions and tighter supply, created increased cost pressure, driving up TBA prices. Domestic inventories of TBA stayed low, prompting higher purchases to address immediate demand. This upward trend persisted into September, with additional price hikes supported by growing consumer spending and heightened industrial activity.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, TBA prices in the APAC region noted mixed pricing trend with China being most volatile market. Initially, upstream crude oil prices saw a decline, largely driven by a significant drop in US crude oil futures, resulting in lower overall oil prices. Downstream sectors, particularly solvents and chemicals manufacturing, experienced increased activity in the region. Following the end of maintenance periods in Asian markets, there was a surge in consumption and restocking, boosting demand. Demand from downstream industries, especially in solvents and chemicals manufacturing, improved across several consumer markets, while Europe saw a continued decline. Gasoline terminal demand remained strong, supported by increased travel and air conditioning fuel consumption, signaling robust gasoline demand. In the short term, MTBE demand benefited from these favorable conditions and overall economic recovery, alongside growing consumer activity, which fueled rising fuel consumption. Consequently, both gasoline and MTBE saw increased demand driven by these trends. Despite volatility in the crude oil market, global oil prices continued to trend downward, influenced by both economic and geopolitical factors, leading to a complex and uncertain outlook for oil prices.
Europe
In Q3 2024, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices in Europe have mostly remained on an uphill trend. In the initial weeks, the German domestic market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) saw declining prices due to weak consumer demand and a surplus in supply, despite tight availability of upstream raw materials like Ethylene. Import delays from the USA and Asia further pressured prices. Additionally, the Port of Houston's closure due to a storm disrupted Ethylene supply, exacerbating the situation. Reports indicated low demand and a lack of new orders, influenced by sluggish economic growth and reduced consumer spending. However, in the last two months, rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and tighter supply led to increased cost pressure, which pushed up TBA prices. Domestic inventories of TBA remained low, and purchases rose to meet immediate needs. This trend continued into September, with further price increases driven by growing consumer spending and industrial activity. Despite the price hikes, overall demand remained moderate, with the economic environment continuing to affect new orders. Although some companies planned price increases and production expansion, nearly half reported insufficient orders.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of this year, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market showcased a mixed trend throughout the quarter, and the prices fluctuated throughout the period. During the first months, the prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol were mostly stable, even though global oil markets experienced fluctuations. In early April, oil prices dropped due to ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, easing concerns about Middle East tensions. In the downstream sector, demand was affected by stable prices in related petrochemicals. Notably, low demand in the downstream sectors played a crucial role in maintaining stable prices, preventing any potential decline.
In May 2024, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices in the US dropped significantly due to weaker employment data, uncertainty about interest rate cuts, and a decline in new orders. The market faced challenges from softening global demand and cautious consumer behavior. Crude oil prices, initially supported by OPEC+ cuts, fell sharply after the cartel announced easing restrictions, contributing to lower TBA prices. Additionally, reduced geopolitical risk premiums, bearish oil futures, and stable freight charges helped maintain a stable pricing environment despite high inventories and low demand.
In the last month, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices fell further due to lower crude oil prices driven by weak US demand and concerns over prolonged high interest rates. The decline in crude prices reduced raw material costs and production rates, directly impacting TBA prices. However, TBA prices rose in the mid-month, spurred by a significant crude oil price increase following a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil terminal. The surge in crude oil prices, alongside heightened demand from derivative markets and the summer driving season, contributed to the price hike in TBA.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has seen an upward trend in Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices across the APAC region. The market dynamics for TBA have been significantly influenced by several key factors. Increased demand from downstream industries, particularly solvents and chemicals, combined with the completion of maintenance activities in Asian industries, has led to higher consumption and restocking. Additionally, a surge in international crude oil prices has exerted upward pressure on production costs, further contributing to the price rise. The global economic recovery, marked by revitalized industrial operations and improved transportation systems, has bolstered demand for petrochemicals, including TBA. Focusing on China, which has seen the most pronounced price fluctuations, the trends reflect a robust demand coupled with seasonal variations. The first half of the quarter was marked by strong gasoline shipping orders and declining inventories, driving prices up. However, this was partially offset in the second half by increased resource supply and eased geopolitical tensions, maintaining a high consolidation level. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices have dropped by 7.7%, while there has been a notable 7% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. Comparing the first and second halves of this quarter, prices showed a 2% increase, underscoring a consistent upward trajectory. The latest quarter-ending price for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol FOB Qingdao stands at USD 1140/MT, indicating a positive pricing environment for this commodity in China. This upward sentiment highlights the market's resilience and the effective balancing of supply-demand fundamentals despite external cost pressures.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the pricing of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol exhibited a notably stable trend across the European region, influenced predominantly by balanced supply and demand fundamentals. Several key factors contributed to this stability. Firstly, the international crude oil market experienced fluctuations, yet this had a limited impact on TBA prices as the upstream Naphtha market offered only weak support. Secondly, the solvent industry's demand remained consistent, although localized disruptions from delayed import cargoes and high freight charges put additional pressure on prices. However, these pressures were largely mitigated by the restocking efforts ahead of the summer season, which bolstered demand. Germany, displaying the most significant price activity within the region, saw TBA prices decrease by 7.4% compared to the same quarter last year and by 8% from the previous quarter in 2024. This upward trend was driven by improved business expectations and restocking practices, despite the influx of cheaper Asian goods and high energy and raw material costs. The quarter concluded with TBA prices at USD 1095/MT FOB Marl in Germany. Overall, the stable pricing environment in Q2 2024 for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol can be characterized as positive, with the market experiencing consistent demand and supply equilibrium, moderate support from upstream markets, and favorable restocking activities balancing out potential volatility factors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol witnessed an overall upward trajectory in prices, influenced by various factors. Primarily, strong support from the upstream Raffinate and Naphtha markets, marked by increased prices, contributed to the ascent of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices. Feedstock Propylene prices also showed signs of recovery in the US. Additionally, the surge in gasoline refining margins signalled a promising demand outlook, further bolstering price growth. However, despite these favourable indicators, demand from the downstream solvents industry remained moderate, constraining the extent of price escalation.
USA notably, experienced significant price fluctuations, with domestic Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices rising by 4% compared to the preceding quarter of 2024. This increase was attributed to heightened raw material costs and increased cost pressures. Furthermore, prices exhibited a noteworthy decline compared to the same quarter last year, witnessing an 18% decrease.
Regarding seasonality, the initial months of the quarter saw an 11% price hike compared to the latter half, indicating a positive pricing trend during this period. The quarter's conclusion saw Tertiary Butyl Alcohol priced at USD 1145 per metric ton in the US reflecting the prevailing upward sentiment in the market.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the pricing landscape for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the APAC region remained predominantly steady, albeit with fluctuations observed in specific countries. Notably, China, as the largest market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol, experienced significant price shifts. Market trends were influenced by various factors including downstream industry demand, the availability of upstream Propylene, and geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes. Following the Spring Festival Holidays in February, Chinese downstream manufacturers exhibited heightened interest in replenishing their inventories, prompting increased inquiries to exporters in South Asian and Far East Asia. Consequently, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices in China rose by 2% compared to the previous quarter, driven by amplified demand from the Personal Care sector and elevated Propylene prices. However, the market encountered challenges stemming from reduced manufacturing activity and disruptions in shipping routes, leading to escalated freight rates. Closing the quarter, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol FOB Shanghai price in China stood at USD 1340/MT.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the Europe region have experienced an overall increasing trend. Various factors have influenced market prices during this period. Firstly, there has been a strong support from the upstream Raffinate and Naphtha market, with increased prices contributing to the rise in Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices. Additionally, Northwest European gasoline refining margins have surged, indicating a promising outlook for demand, which has further supported the price increase. However, on the demand side, inquiries from the downstream solvents industry have remained moderate, limiting the extent of price growth.
Germany, in particular, has witnessed significant price changes. The prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the German domestic market have risen by 4% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. This increase can be attributed to higher raw material prices and increased cost pressure. Furthermore, there has been a notable decrease in the prices compared to the same quarter last year, with a decline of 18%.
In terms of seasonality, the first half of the quarter saw a price increase of 11% compared to the second half. This indicates a positive trend in the pricing environment during the initial months of the quarter. The quarter-ending price of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in Germany stands at USD 1090 per metric ton, reflecting the overall increasing sentiment in the market.
