For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In the third quarter of this year, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market in the North American region showed a mixed trend, with prices fluctuating throughout the period. In the early weeks of the quarter, TBA prices remained relatively stable, despite global crude oil market volatility. The upstream crude oil prices were affected by easing tensions in the Middle East, contributing to a steady environment for TBA pricing.
Low demand in downstream sectors, particularly in solvents and petrochemicals, also helped maintain price stability during this period. However, in the last two months, TBA prices in the region saw a significant volatility, influenced by supply challenges, weak industrial output and cautious consumer activity. Additionally, the Port of Houston's closure due to a storm disrupted Ethylene supply, exacerbating the situation.
Rising crude oil prices, fueled by geopolitical tensions and tighter supply, created increased cost pressure, driving up TBA prices. Domestic inventories of TBA stayed low, prompting higher purchases to address immediate demand. This upward trend persisted into September, with additional price hikes supported by growing consumer spending and heightened industrial activity.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, TBA prices in the APAC region noted mixed pricing trend with China being most volatile market. Initially, upstream crude oil prices saw a decline, largely driven by a significant drop in US crude oil futures, resulting in lower overall oil prices. Downstream sectors, particularly solvents and chemicals manufacturing, experienced increased activity in the region. Following the end of maintenance periods in Asian markets, there was a surge in consumption and restocking, boosting demand. Demand from downstream industries, especially in solvents and chemicals manufacturing, improved across several consumer markets, while Europe saw a continued decline. Gasoline terminal demand remained strong, supported by increased travel and air conditioning fuel consumption, signaling robust gasoline demand. In the short term, MTBE demand benefited from these favorable conditions and overall economic recovery, alongside growing consumer activity, which fueled rising fuel consumption. Consequently, both gasoline and MTBE saw increased demand driven by these trends. Despite volatility in the crude oil market, global oil prices continued to trend downward, influenced by both economic and geopolitical factors, leading to a complex and uncertain outlook for oil prices.
Europe
In Q3 2024, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices in Europe have mostly remained on an uphill trend. In the initial weeks, the German domestic market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) saw declining prices due to weak consumer demand and a surplus in supply, despite tight availability of upstream raw materials like Ethylene. Import delays from the USA and Asia further pressured prices. Additionally, the Port of Houston's closure due to a storm disrupted Ethylene supply, exacerbating the situation. Reports indicated low demand and a lack of new orders, influenced by sluggish economic growth and reduced consumer spending. However, in the last two months, rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and tighter supply led to increased cost pressure, which pushed up TBA prices. Domestic inventories of TBA remained low, and purchases rose to meet immediate needs. This trend continued into September, with further price increases driven by growing consumer spending and industrial activity. Despite the price hikes, overall demand remained moderate, with the economic environment continuing to affect new orders. Although some companies planned price increases and production expansion, nearly half reported insufficient orders.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of this year, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market showcased a mixed trend throughout the quarter, and the prices fluctuated throughout the period. During the first months, the prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol were mostly stable, even though global oil markets experienced fluctuations. In early April, oil prices dropped due to ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, easing concerns about Middle East tensions. In the downstream sector, demand was affected by stable prices in related petrochemicals. Notably, low demand in the downstream sectors played a crucial role in maintaining stable prices, preventing any potential decline.
In May 2024, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices in the US dropped significantly due to weaker employment data, uncertainty about interest rate cuts, and a decline in new orders. The market faced challenges from softening global demand and cautious consumer behavior. Crude oil prices, initially supported by OPEC+ cuts, fell sharply after the cartel announced easing restrictions, contributing to lower TBA prices. Additionally, reduced geopolitical risk premiums, bearish oil futures, and stable freight charges helped maintain a stable pricing environment despite high inventories and low demand.
In the last month, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices fell further due to lower crude oil prices driven by weak US demand and concerns over prolonged high interest rates. The decline in crude prices reduced raw material costs and production rates, directly impacting TBA prices. However, TBA prices rose in the mid-month, spurred by a significant crude oil price increase following a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil terminal. The surge in crude oil prices, alongside heightened demand from derivative markets and the summer driving season, contributed to the price hike in TBA.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has seen an upward trend in Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices across the APAC region. The market dynamics for TBA have been significantly influenced by several key factors. Increased demand from downstream industries, particularly solvents and chemicals, combined with the completion of maintenance activities in Asian industries, has led to higher consumption and restocking. Additionally, a surge in international crude oil prices has exerted upward pressure on production costs, further contributing to the price rise. The global economic recovery, marked by revitalized industrial operations and improved transportation systems, has bolstered demand for petrochemicals, including TBA. Focusing on China, which has seen the most pronounced price fluctuations, the trends reflect a robust demand coupled with seasonal variations. The first half of the quarter was marked by strong gasoline shipping orders and declining inventories, driving prices up. However, this was partially offset in the second half by increased resource supply and eased geopolitical tensions, maintaining a high consolidation level. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices have dropped by 7.7%, while there has been a notable 7% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. Comparing the first and second halves of this quarter, prices showed a 2% increase, underscoring a consistent upward trajectory. The latest quarter-ending price for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol FOB Qingdao stands at USD 1140/MT, indicating a positive pricing environment for this commodity in China. This upward sentiment highlights the market's resilience and the effective balancing of supply-demand fundamentals despite external cost pressures.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the pricing of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol exhibited a notably stable trend across the European region, influenced predominantly by balanced supply and demand fundamentals. Several key factors contributed to this stability. Firstly, the international crude oil market experienced fluctuations, yet this had a limited impact on TBA prices as the upstream Naphtha market offered only weak support. Secondly, the solvent industry's demand remained consistent, although localized disruptions from delayed import cargoes and high freight charges put additional pressure on prices. However, these pressures were largely mitigated by the restocking efforts ahead of the summer season, which bolstered demand. Germany, displaying the most significant price activity within the region, saw TBA prices decrease by 7.4% compared to the same quarter last year and by 8% from the previous quarter in 2024. This upward trend was driven by improved business expectations and restocking practices, despite the influx of cheaper Asian goods and high energy and raw material costs. The quarter concluded with TBA prices at USD 1095/MT FOB Marl in Germany. Overall, the stable pricing environment in Q2 2024 for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol can be characterized as positive, with the market experiencing consistent demand and supply equilibrium, moderate support from upstream markets, and favorable restocking activities balancing out potential volatility factors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol witnessed an overall upward trajectory in prices, influenced by various factors. Primarily, strong support from the upstream Raffinate and Naphtha markets, marked by increased prices, contributed to the ascent of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices. Feedstock Propylene prices also showed signs of recovery in the US. Additionally, the surge in gasoline refining margins signalled a promising demand outlook, further bolstering price growth. However, despite these favourable indicators, demand from the downstream solvents industry remained moderate, constraining the extent of price escalation.
USA notably, experienced significant price fluctuations, with domestic Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices rising by 4% compared to the preceding quarter of 2024. This increase was attributed to heightened raw material costs and increased cost pressures. Furthermore, prices exhibited a noteworthy decline compared to the same quarter last year, witnessing an 18% decrease.
Regarding seasonality, the initial months of the quarter saw an 11% price hike compared to the latter half, indicating a positive pricing trend during this period. The quarter's conclusion saw Tertiary Butyl Alcohol priced at USD 1145 per metric ton in the US reflecting the prevailing upward sentiment in the market.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the pricing landscape for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the APAC region remained predominantly steady, albeit with fluctuations observed in specific countries. Notably, China, as the largest market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol, experienced significant price shifts. Market trends were influenced by various factors including downstream industry demand, the availability of upstream Propylene, and geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes. Following the Spring Festival Holidays in February, Chinese downstream manufacturers exhibited heightened interest in replenishing their inventories, prompting increased inquiries to exporters in South Asian and Far East Asia. Consequently, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices in China rose by 2% compared to the previous quarter, driven by amplified demand from the Personal Care sector and elevated Propylene prices. However, the market encountered challenges stemming from reduced manufacturing activity and disruptions in shipping routes, leading to escalated freight rates. Closing the quarter, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol FOB Shanghai price in China stood at USD 1340/MT.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the Europe region have experienced an overall increasing trend. Various factors have influenced market prices during this period. Firstly, there has been a strong support from the upstream Raffinate and Naphtha market, with increased prices contributing to the rise in Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices. Additionally, Northwest European gasoline refining margins have surged, indicating a promising outlook for demand, which has further supported the price increase. However, on the demand side, inquiries from the downstream solvents industry have remained moderate, limiting the extent of price growth.
Germany, in particular, has witnessed significant price changes. The prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the German domestic market have risen by 4% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. This increase can be attributed to higher raw material prices and increased cost pressure. Furthermore, there has been a notable decrease in the prices compared to the same quarter last year, with a decline of 18%.
In terms of seasonality, the first half of the quarter saw a price increase of 11% compared to the second half. This indicates a positive trend in the pricing environment during the initial months of the quarter. The quarter-ending price of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in Germany stands at USD 1090 per metric ton, reflecting the overall increasing sentiment in the market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of this year, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market showcased a mixed trend throughout the period, and the prices fluctuated throughout the period. Over three months, the demand outlook remained moderate amid consumers’ reluctance for new purchases and were mainly focusing on long-term orders. In October, prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the US surged due to increased import costs; however, by November, the inflationary pressures subsided, leading to improved business conditions.
This positive trend continued into December as inflation eased further. Enhanced demand from downstream solvent manufacturing and related industries contributed to favorable business conditions, while major exporting nations adjusted selling prices upward due to heightened production costs. Concurrently, November witnessed heightened consumer spending and improved market activities, positively impacting the overall economic conditions.
Despite downstream industries experiencing only moderate demand and concerns about potential recession, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties, consumer confidence in the US increased in both November and December, signaling optimism for future business conditions. Overall, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market in North America remained stable, with consistent product procurement observed.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market in the APAC region showcased a mixed pricing trend, influenced by several factors. The market sentiments for TBA were bearish due to weak demand from downstream industries. This was further exacerbated by the overall economic slowdown in the region, as reflected in the low manufacturing PMI data. Additionally, the market faced challenges from factory-gate deflation, indicating the difficulties in recovering from the post-pandemic downturn. China experienced the most significant changes in TBA prices. The country saw a decrease of 1.9% in TBA prices during the quarter. This was primarily due to limited inventories available to meet domestic demand and an expected increase in raw material costs, which affected the production costs of TBA in the domestic market. Furthermore, there was a decline in consumer inquiries in the region, leading to a slowdown in market activity. In comparison to the same quarter of the previous year, TBA prices in China decreased by 6%. Moreover, there was a 3% decrease in prices from the previous quarter of 2023. Overall, the TBA market in the APAC region faced challenges from weak demand, increasing raw material costs, and limited inventories. China, in particular, experienced a decrease in prices and a slowdown in market activity. The latest price of TBA FOB Qingdao in China for the current quarter is USD 1020/MT.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2023 (Q4) for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the Europe region witnessed a bearish market situation due to weak demand from the downstream solvent manufacturing industry. The market transactions were limited, and minimal trading activities were registered. The low offtakes and inquiries from the downstream solvent industry impacted the supply and demand outlook, resulting in bearish sentiments. Throughout this quarter, the cost support from the upstream raw material also fluctuated due to the oscillation petrochemicals market in Europe. Additionally, the energy market also influenced the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market. However, Germany witnessed an overall stable price trend for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol over the last two months of the quarter with no significant changes observed in the underlying market elements. The price change percentage from the previous quarter was -3%, and the percentage change in the last year's same quarter price was -19%. The price percentage comparison of the first and second half of the quarter in Germany was -8%. The latest price of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol Anhydrous FOB Marl in Germany was USD 984/MT, which remained unchanged during the quarter. No plant shutdown was reported by market participants. Overall, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market in Europe witnessed a weak demand and moderate supply, and prices remained stable in Germany during Q4 2023.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the third quarter of this year, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market remained subdued, and the prices declined throughout the period. Over three months, the demand outlook remained moderate amid consumers’ reluctance for new purchases and were mainly focusing on long-term orders. The first month observed sufficient material availability in the domestic market. However, as per the government GDP data, the economy improved at an increased pace from July to September, despite higher interest rates, depleted pandemic savings, and high inflation. Further, the industrial manufacturing output rose to the highest level in months. Albeit, in September, the prices increased slightly as the demand conditions improved. Moreover, amid enhanced consumer spending, businesses across the region showcased positive development in the market. However, the procurement from the battery manufacturing firms was underwhelming due to lackluster demand whereas, the petrochemicals market did not show any signs of improvement. In this quarter, the impact of crude oil was also observed in the prices of TBA.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2023, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market in the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated mixed sentiments. In both July and August, the domestic market for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in China experienced a decline in market sentiment due to weakened demand from downstream industries. Manufacturers operated at a slower pace due to factory gate deflation, leading to further erosion of profit margins. Product purchases were largely demand-driven, and domestic manufacturers maintained production levels. In August, the situation persisted with a PMI of 49.7, underscoring the ongoing challenges in the market. Come September, the prices rebounded in the domestic market amid increased production costs of the product and improvement in the demand outlook. Amid slight ease in the factory gate deflation, the businesses' performance improved in the region. China has considered increasing its budget deficit for 2023 as the government prepared to unleash a new round of stimulus to assist the economy in reaching the official growth target. As of September 2023, the prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in China were assessed at USD 1050 per tonne.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2023, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol market in the European region demonstrated mixed sentiments. In July, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) prices in the German market remained stagnant. The subdued demand from the domestic paint industry, driven by economic uncertainties, played a key role in this price stability. Insufficient cost support from Isobutane, which experienced declining prices, combined with a modest uptick in crude oil costs, failed to significantly influence TBA prices, which stood at $78.47 per barrel. In August, TBA prices in the German market increased, reflecting a steady demand outlook with no substantial developments in new purchase orders. The following period saw a marginal 1.9% decrease in TBA prices in the German domestic market due to weak consumer demand, particularly from the solvent manufacturing industry, which suffered from subdued buying sentiments. On the supply side, production costs dipped due to feeble cost support from upstream Methanol. As of September 2023, the prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in Germany were assessed at USD 1032 per tonne.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) prices have remained on the lower end in the US market during the second quarter of 2023. The global economic headwinds such as mounting inflation, tighter monetary policies, and rising interest rates have weighed on the downstream sector including the construction industries. The manufacturer's inventories have raised as the higher borrowing cost and economic conditions have been tampering with the already constrained demand from the downstream construction industry in the domestic market. Although, the supply chain constraints have been eased, and logistics were restored. The core inflation has also trended above the US Federal Reserve targeted level, inching downward slowly, pressuring trade activities. Although, during the H2 of Q2, the construction sector has gained pace in the US market. As per the sources, US construction spending rose 0.9% in May after 0.4% in April and didn’t lead to an increase in the price realization of TBA in the domestic market. On the upstream front, Isobutylene prices have inched lower which negatively impacted the production cost of TBA in the domestic market.
Asia- Pacific
Tertiary Butyl Alcohol or TBA prices have shown mixed sentiments in the Chinese domestic market during the second quarter of 2023. During the initial of Q2, TBA prices have inched higher in the domestic market due to high-cost pressure from the feedstock Isobutylene. The inquiries from the downstream solvent in the paints and coating industries have remained moderate in the domestic market. The downstream procurement was mainly based on immediate requirements. Although, during the mid and end of Q2, TBA prices have gained a downward trend due to weak feedstock prices and limited demand. The demand from the downstream solvent in the paint and coating industry has plummeted and a plunge has been observed in the manufacturer’s quotations for input raw materials, including TBA. As per the sources, new house sales were down in June amid the property crisis, thus impacting the market sentiments of TBA. Furthermore, the highly anticipated economic revival of China following the removal of Covid-19 restrictions is not materializing as expected, resulting in a repeated deterioration of the Chinese economy. In addition, the subdued demand from the Western market has tampered with the market momentum, inflicting the exports from China to decline by 7.5% in May on a year-on-year basis. Furthermore, the oversupplies of feedstock Isobutylene have limited the positive development of TBA in the domestic market, therefore, the prices operated at low levels in the domestic market.
Europe
Overall, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices have inched lower in the German market throughout the second quarter of 2023 amid weak feedstock prices and tepid downstream demand. The mounting inflationary pressure and rising interest rates by the European central bank to combat inflation have impacted the consumer’s pocket. In addition, the German inflation rate increased in June to 6.4% year-on-year, from 6.1% YoY in May which slowed down the economic growth in Europe's largest economy, Germany. In the meantime, demand for TBA from the downstream solvent in the paint and coating industry has remained subdued amid sluggish buying sentiments among the end-users. The market transactions were relatively flat as purchasing enthusiasm of terminal firm to enter the market were not high. As per the sources, Germany's construction purchasing managers index declined to 41.4 in June from 43.9 in May. Furthermore, the oversupplies of feedstock Isobutylene have limited the positive development of TBA in the domestic market. In addition, the availability of finished stock of TBA was also sufficient amid a decline in new orders as a result manufacturing firms reduced their operating rates as manufacturers were cautious to build up excessive inventories in the domestic market, thus weighing down the prices of TBA in the domestic market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) prices fluctuated in the USA market during the first quarter of 2023. In the first two months of 2023, TBA prices increased due to improved buying sentiments in the domestic market. Demand from the downstream solvent industry has been boosted, which further promoted the high prices of TBA in the domestic market. However, towards the end of Q1, the financial sector worries amidst the failure of Signature and Silicon Valley banks have constrained the downstream demand, thus weakening the market growth of TBA in the domestic market. In addition, LyondellBasell Industries performs Final Commissioning for a new 2.2 billion Lbs/yr Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) unit in Channelview, TX. The units are expected to be operational in late March or early April, which is anticipated to increase the TBA availability in the USA market.
Asia- Pacific
Tertiary Butyl Alcohol has shown a see-saw trend in China during the first quarter of 2023. During January, TBA prices increased after the New Year Holidays as the market participants restocked the material available in the domestic market. Demand from the downstream gasoline and solvent industries has increased marginally from the domestic and overseas markets. In addition, China's Purchasing Manager's index increased from 47.0 to 50.1 in January, signifying an increment in both industrial and manufacturing activity. However, during February, TBA prices decreased due to a slowdown in the downstream demand and ample supplies in the domestic market. As per the market sources, China's export rate for January- February month declined by around 6.8%, highlighting the continuous weakness in global demand. Although, due to increased demand from the domestic and international markets, TBA prices have rebounded towards the end of the Q1 of 2023.
Europe
Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) has shown mixed sentiments in the European market during the first quarter of 2023. During the initial and mid-Q1, TBA prices dropped due to dull buying sentiments and ample supplies in the region. Feedstock Isobutylene fluctuated throughout the quarter, but it had limited bearing over the prices of TBA. In addition, due to high-interest rates and inflation, the demand from the solvent industry has remained sluggish. There were no new orders from end-use industries, so the product ended up in stock. Moreover, the market perceived a wait-and-see attitude. However, during the final of Q1, TBA prices increased significantly as market participants restocked the material in the regional market. On the other side, demand for TBA from the solvent and gasoline has improved at a slower pace from the domestic and overseas markets.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) have shown a mixed trend in the USA market during the fourth quarter of 2022. During October, TBA prices increased due to the firm production cost. Feedstock Isobutylene prices raised, which positively impacted the TBA prices. Meanwhile, demand from the downstream solvent industry has remained on the stable side. Although, during November and December, TBA prices declined owing to weak cost pressure and sluggish demand from the downstream industries. Additionally, upstream Crude oil prices continued their downward side in November, hence resulting in weak cost pressure. Meanwhile, demand from downstream solvents and other competitive industries has subdued, resulting in weak volume consumption. Furthermore, consumer sentiment has dropped drastically in the regional market, which has been implied by the drop in Purchasing Manufacturing Index PMI, which dipped below (i.e., 49.7) in November, implying in both industrial and manufacturing activity.
Asia- Pacific
Prices of TBA increased in the China domestic market throughout the fourth quarter of 2022. The market trend in China remained stable to weak as the demand from downstream solvents and other competitive industries remained stagnant. Meanwhile, demand from the overseas market has also remained stable due to the soft buying sentiment. In terms of domestic production, operating rates have increased since the holidays break, and market participants have reported improved buying sentiment in the domestic market. Meanwhile, disruption in the supply chain leads to limited material availability. However, in India, both domestically produced and imported materials have been priced lower. Demand from the downstream solvent and allied industries remained bearish. Meanwhile, abundant material availability to cater to the overall domestic demand.
Europe
TBA prices have witnessed a mixed sentiment in the German market during the fourth quarter of 2022. During the first half of the month, TBA prices increased, supported by the high inflationary pressure and volatile energy prices. In addition, the supply has been obstructed by port congestion, vessel bunching, and labor unrest, resulting in limited material availability in the regional market. However, during the last month, TBA prices declined as the market participant reported limited inquiries from downstream industries as the West witnessed a decrease in consumption level amid fear of a European recession which resulted in soft consumer sentiments. Meanwhile, the sharp decline in the freight rates resulted in ample imported material availability in the regional market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
During the third quarter of 2022, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) prices showed mixed sentiments in the North American region. In the initial part of the third quarter, the Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) price increased. Bullish sentiment in the feedstock Isobutylene, instability in the energy market, and mounting inflation rate contributed to the high TBA prices across the regional market. However, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices shifted marginally towards a downward trend during the mid-quarter of Q3, bolstered by abundant inventories coupled with bearish demand from the downstream Solvent and other allied industries. Although, during the end of Q3, demand from the domestic and overseas markets slightly rebounded, which resulted in the TBA prices increasing in the USA market. Hence, as of result, prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol increased by around 2% during September.
Asia- Pacific
Prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the Asia Pacific region declined consistently throughout the third quarter of 2022. Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices dropped significantly as the cost pressure eased while demand from downstream Solvents and other allied industries remained stable to weak. In China, the market faced stoppages due to a resurgence in covid cases, hampered trading and production activities, and obstructed supply chain dynamics. Hence, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol FOB Qingdao prices were assessed at USD 955/MT during September. Meanwhile, in the Indian market, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices showed fluctuation during Q3. During July and August, TBA prices have increased due to the high cost of the raw material Isobutylene. In addition, the limited inventory level, coupled with improving demand from the downstream solvent industry, has another reason for the price increase in the domestic market. However, during September, TBA prices dropped due to a decrease in the import prices amid the weakening INR against the USD. Furthermore, consumption levels remained stagnant from the downstream Solvent and other industries.
Europe
During the initial third quarter of 2022, prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) have increased in the European market, supported by the mounting energy prices. Surging natural gas prices culminated in high electricity prices, which increased the cost of production. Thus, the cost of production of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices remained high across the regional market. However, during the mid-third quarter, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices plunged by 3.8% due to the downstream industries' weak demand. Also, the speculation of recession across Europe has dampened the demand from the downstream solvent industry. In addition, manufacturing activity has also declined amid high energy prices. Inflows of new orders dropped due to sluggish demand for TBA. While during the end of September, TBA prices remained stable on the back of the sufficient inventory level. Hence, as a result, prices of TBA FOB Marl were assessed at USD 1211/MT during September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol have witnessed an upward trajectory in the North American region throughout the second quarter of 2022, owing to supply shortage and rising demand for Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the paint and coating, solvents industries. Furthermore, volatile upstream Crude oil prices and feedstock prices, including Isobutylene, have weighed on the high costs of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol across the region. In addition, the supply shortage in the region amidst geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine had a substantial impact on production rates and operating costs of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol. As a result, the crisis in Ukraine resulted in supply chain disruption. Prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol were hiked by nearly 2% throughout the month of June.
Asia- Pacific
During the second quarter of 2022, the market sentiments of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in China followed the upward stagnancy. The steadiness in the market occurred due to market dullness in the country. Furthermore, the stable offtakes from the downstream solvent industries, in contrast, the existing stockpiles were sufficient to meet the downstream manufacturer demand. Although, demand from the other segment, mainly paints and coating as a paint remover, remained weak. In addition, the strict lockdown in Shanghai, the commercial hub of China, has halted the operational rate of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the regional market. Furthermore, amidst the Russia and Ukraine war and the shutdown in China, local manufacturers have been facing a frenzy supply to cater to the domestic demand. These facets have proportionally affected the prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol across the market. As a result, prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol were observed at USD 1590/MT during June 2022, compared to the previous month.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2022, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) prices showcased mixed sentiments. In April, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices in Germany showed upward momentum. Demand from the downstream Paints and Coating solvent industries has remained robust. Furthermore, the rise in the upstream crude oil value because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has impacted the raw material. Isobutylene cost has the other factor for the high prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol. Furthermore, being the exporter of Tertiary Butyl alcohol, Germany has struggled in production due to a prolonged energy crisis, which led to the supply shortage in the domestic and international markets. Tertiary Butyl Alcohol settled at USD 1274/MT in April 2022. Later, in the mid-quarter, prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol dropped due to lower inquiries from the downstream paint and coatings and perfume industries across the regional market. Furthermore, new export orders have continued to fall due to escalated inflation caused by the war between Russia and Ukraine. As per the trader, the price decline resulted from fluctuations in crude oil prices, cheap raw material costs, and abundant inventory levels. Thus, by the quarter ending June, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol was observed at USD1166/MT, dropping around 4.1% in Germany throughout the second quarter.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol climbed in the North American region during the first quarter of 2022, owing to supply shortage and rising demand of TBA from end-user pharmaceutical industry as a solvent. Furthermore, high crude oil prices and feedstock prices including Isobutylene as well as shortage of supply in the region because of geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine, had a substantial impact on production rates and operating costs of TBA. As a result, the crisis in Ukraine hindered the supply network. Prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol DEL hovered between the range of USD 1912-2100/ MT during March.
Asia Pacific
During the first quarter of 2022, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices in the Asia Pacific seesawed. In January, TBA prices increased on the back of solid demand from the downstream industries as a solvent or intermediate in the paint and coating sector. During the mid of quarter, prices dropped significantly by 5% as compared to January. The decline in the prices was attributed to improved availability and increased supplies. Demand from downstream remained stable in February. While in India, the TBA prices showed upward trend in Q1 Of 2022 due to the increase in the price of feedstock Isobutylene values because of high crude oil values amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, the demand from downstream sectors remained firm in Q1. Tertiary Butyl Alcohol CFR JNPT settled at USD 1762/MT in March.
Europe
In contrast to the last quarter of 2021, Tertiary Butyl Alcohol showed positive market sentiments in Europe during Q1 of 2022. Prices climbed on the back of the limited availability of product in the region. Demand from the pharmaceutical sector as a solvent increased and remained stable throughout Q1. Furthermore, the Russia-Ukraine crisis had affected the crude oil prices, followed by the rise in the feedstock Isobutylene prices, which impacted the market dynamics and has resulted in high costs of Tertiary butyl alcohol in the region. In addition, many manufacturers in Europe were forced to curtail their production rates owing to the energy crisis, which further prompted the increased price of TBA in the region. Prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol Anhydrous FOB Germany were assessed at USD 1333/MT during March.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In Q4, the costs of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol flooded, and the demand was robust compared with Q2 and Q3. Feedstock Isobutylene costs were additionally surged because of expansion in crude oil and bullish interest from downstream market. There has been a broad development in the utilization of tert-butyl alcohol as a solvent or intermediate in the paints and coatings industry in this quarter. However, towards the final half of quarter, the costs began to drop because of New Year festive which dials back the exchanging exercises and the market which expands the inventories among the enterprises.
Asia Pacific
In Q4, the demand of Tertiary Butyl alcohol remains vigorous, and the prices reached to the new heights. In India, the prices were maxed out in October and touched the range of $2370/ton Ex-Mumbai- $2432/ton Ex-Mumbai. However, in the remaining months the prices slowed down as the fear of New Covid variant had impacted the trading and triggered demand slump. Feedstock Isobutylene prices was also remained strong with highest of $1644/ton Ex-Mumbai. Traders stayed pushed of the further cost pressure because of taking off freight rates and consistent surge in worldwide petrochemical requirement following favourable monetary recuperation. The thriving development industry has affected the market overall, as tert-butyl alcohol had most sought-after solvent utilized in paints and coatings industries.
Europe
In Europe, the prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol prices surged with succeeding months in this quarter. The prices were maxed in December with $1216/ton FOB Marl. The upstream product (Naptha) observed tightness in this quarter, due to record highs in the physical and paper industry while lack of arbitrage interest in Europe slumped uprising the increase in TBA price. An increase in naphtha shipments has also coincided with bad weather in both the Black Sea and the Med, delaying cargo discharges and tightening tonnage lists for prompt deliveries which were also the main reasons behind prices increment.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
Tertiary-Butyl Alcohol values in North America observed an upward trend during the third quarter of 2021. Hike in the prices of TBA was aided by various factors including the surging demand from the downstream solvent and paint industries after the recovery in the construction sector in the region. In addition, most of the production capacities along the Gulf Coast of USA remained offline as a repercussion of Ida hurricane which further exerted the upward pressure on the TBA market. Hence, soaring feedstock prices and firm demand by the downstream manufacturers contributed to the hike in the prices of Tertiary-Butyl Alcohol during Q3.
Asia Pacific
The Asian market observed narrow supply of raw materials along with firm demand from the downstream industries. In China, a sustained increment in the prices of upstream Propylene was seen throughout the quarter which consequently propelled the prices of TBA in the regional market. In addition, congestion on several ports in China due to the delay in cargo processing and corona virus zero-tolerance policy led to the supply chain disruption and further pushed the prices of TBA in this timeframe. In India, TBA market registered a steep rise due to the tight supplies of feedstocks and acute shortage of the product. Moreover, soaring freight charges and delayed imports during this quarter further send ripples to the prices of TBA in Indian market. Tertiary Butyl Alcohol Ex-Work Mumbai prices settled at USD 1995.95/MT in September showcasing an increment by USD 534.4/MT since July.
Europe
In Q3 2021, European markets witnessed limited supplies of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol and its feedstock Propylene in the region backed by lower imports from the US due to the impact of Ida hurricane. Moreover, many manufacturers in Europe were compelled to curtail their production rates because of the energy crisis which further aided the pricing trend of TBA in the region. Besides, exorbitant freight charges across the interoceanic trade routes and limited availability of containers also led to the spike in the values of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol. FOB Marla TBA prices rose from USD 985/MT to USA 1095/MT during July to September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
As the Industrial Infrastructure in the US Gulf region recovered from the devastating impact from the winter storm, resumption in operations of refineries and crackers gradually eased the availability of Propylene Oxide which further improved the production of Tertiary-Butyl Alcohol in the North American region. Demand surged from the downstream solvent and paint remover industries, amidst the seasonal hike from the building and construction sector. As a ripple effect, the prices in the North American region remained buoyed taking cost support from the hiked prices of upstream Propylene Oxide.
Asia Pacific
Supply of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the Asia Pacific region remained sufficient to cater the end use segments demand, but regional scenario differ throughout the region. In China, due to surged inflation rates, the prices of upstream Propylene remained buoyed throughout the quarter, which further strengthened the wait and see approach among the buyers. In India, the market fundamentals remained subdued due to the impact of second COVID wave, however situation improved in the later half as the government eased the restrictions in several regions. Prices of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol for Ex-Work Mumbai observed an uptrend and discussion settled at USD 1327 per tonne. Demand flourished from the gasoline blending and construction sector.
Europe
The supply of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the European region remained tight as the turnaround in several PDH, refineries and crackers of upstream Propylene limited the availability of key feedstock Propylene Oxide in the second quarter of 2021. However, some constraints were eased as the shipments from the North American region improved after observing almost negligible quantity of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
During the Q1 2021, the supplies in North American region were tight, as several plants were forced to shut down due to the sub-zero temperature in the USA Gulf region. Nearly 100% USA TBA capacity went offline due to the power outages and ruptured pipelines. However, the enquiries increased from the downstream MTBE sector despite of the shortage of Tertiary Butyl Alcohol in the region which caused the significant hike on the prices of TBA in the first quarter.
Asia-Pacific
The supplies in the Asia Pacific region improved during the first quarter of 2021, as the turnarounds in several major plants in the northeast Asian region ended in the first half of the quarter. Several plants outages in Middle East and USA added some constraints in the regional supplies, as the imports declined. A joint venture between LyondellBasell with Sinopec commenced a new PO facility of capacity 275,000 MT/Year in China, since TBA is produced as a byproduct in the process, it indirectly supported TBA production capacity.
Europe
The European Tertiary Butyl Alcohol (TBA) market remained tight, during the first quarter of 2021, owing to the shortage of key feedstocks due to the low production rate of plants in Northwest European region, followed by the decline in imports from the USA. However, demand and supply gap remained balanced due to the fall in the enquiries from the downstream MTBE industries and limited commercial and industrial activities due to the resurgence of COVID.
For the Quarter Ending December 2020
North America
Price of TBA rose significantly during the fourth quarter buoyed by firming upstream rates. This rise was triggered by the surge in both chemical-grade propylene (CGP) and polymer-grade propylene (PGP) starting late November. Amid high demand from the downstream sectors, hurricane zeta created unplanned turnaround on several production units across the gulf region during November 2020. These factors prompted increment in the tertiary butanol offers towards the second half of Q4. In October, Lyondellbasell announced almost 30% increase in its TBA/PO project cost due to construction delays caused by the pandemic and unexpected tariffs. The proposed plant, which is under construction since August 2018, would be capable of producing around 1 million tpy TBA and 1 million tpy PO. The delay eventually seems to hurt the regional TBA market.
Asia
During Q4 2020, the prices of TBA rose appreciably, extending strong gains from the feedstock Propylene and Propylene Oxide (PO) whose offers showed marked rise due to rapid increase in demand for several downstream derivatives. Amid strong optimism due to vaccine roll-out and rebounding of several Asian economies, refiners were heard operating their units at optimum levels during the fourth quarter. Surging crude oil and PO led to rise in the TBA production costs. TBA offers across the Indian markets were raised from 1087 USD/tonne in October to 1127.7 USD/tonne in December 2020.
Europe
Europe faced hinderance in imports of the key raw materials from the US during Q4 2020. The domestic supplies of raw materials were also not up to the mark due to a new wave of infections affecting the market movement. TBA prices were uplifted across the region due to a significant rise in demand from the domestic market but lack of sufficient supply. In addition, due to shortage of the feedstock Propylene, TBA prices increased by double digits within Q4 2020. TBA being a key raw material for the production of organic peroxides and other specialty chemicals is witnessing high demand growth in the region.
