For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Stainless-Steel Hot Rolled Coil (SSHRC) market in North America saw mixed dynamics characterized by a stable pricing environment despite underlying challenges in demand and production. Prices for SSHRC experienced a modest decline of 4% in October due to decreasing nickel prices and subdued demand from the manufacturing sector. However, by December, prices stabilized, supported by strong raw steel production rates and the maintenance of anti-dumping duties, which elevated domestic price protection.
Manufacturing and supply dynamics were influenced by strong performance in steel production, with raw steel output in the U.S. reaching 1.658 million net tons by the end of December. Even so, ongoing uncertainties in the construction sector, compounded by high mortgage rates and declining real estate activity, softened demand levels. The overall year-end residential slowdown led to cautious purchasing behaviour among consumers.
The quarter-ending price for Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil (5 mm) DEL Florida stood at USD 3,374/MT. Throughout Q4, the pricing trend for SSHRC remained relatively steady, with fluctuations stemming from market recovery efforts amid stabilized production levels and supportive government policies.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Stainless-Steel Hot Rolled Coil (SSHRC) market in Europe, particularly in Germany, faced significant challenges characterized by a considerable decline in prices amid weakening demand from key sectors. Prices dropped 6% in October and November, followed by an additional 6% decrease in December, resulting in steep overall declines due to sustained oversupply and softening market conditions. The market has been impacted by subdued performance in both the automotive and construction industries, which remain critical for SSHRC consumption. Reports indicate that new housing approvals and automotive registrations continue to lag, inhibiting growth and prompting concerns about future demand. Despite increased production levels, including an 8.6% rise in crude steel production year-on-year, the oversupply scenario has pressured pricing. The quarter-ending price for Stainless Steel-HR Coil (5 mm) Ex Ruhr stood at USD 2,607/MT. Throughout Q4, prices reflected a downward trend, with Q4 averages illustrating a challenging environment. As economic uncertainty persists, market participants must navigate elevated energy costs and muted demand signals, complicating recovery efforts and necessitating strategic adjustments to sustain operations in the coming months.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Stainless-Steel Hot Rolled Coil (SSHRC) market in the APAC region displayed a relatively stable pricing environment, driven by robust demand from the automotive sector despite fluctuations in production and inventory levels. The price for SSHRC witnessed a modest decline of 3% in October due to fluctuations in nickel prices but remained stable in November and December, supported by increased downstream demand. Manufacturing dynamics indicated that while overall stainless-steel production in China experienced slight month-over-month declines, specific categories such as the 200-series benefited from stable output from leading enterprises and improved operating rates. Government stimulus measures, including monetary policy adjustments, bolstered market confidence, creating a cautiously optimistic atmosphere. Demand metrics showed a strong rebound in automotive sales, which rose 18% year-over-year in November, offsetting slower activity in the construction sector. The quarter-ending price for Stainless Steel-201 HR Coil (3 mm) Ex Shandong stood at USD 994/MT. Overall, while the market showed stability in pricing through Q4, supply chain dynamics and seasonal factors, including the upcoming Chinese New Year, pose challenges that may affect demand and production levels in early 2025. Market participants must navigate these complexities to maintain equilibrium in the SSHRC landscape.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Stainless Steel HR Coil market remained stable, with prices showing a marginal decline of 2% from the previous quarter. Various factors influenced market prices, including stable supply conditions, moderate demand levels, and global economic uncertainties. The correlation between nickel and iron markets played a significant role in price fluctuations, with challenges such as elevated inventory levels and sluggish demand impacting pricing dynamics.
The automotive sector experienced a decline in sales, while the construction industry displayed resilience, indicating diverse demand trends across sectors. Plant shutdowns were not reported during the quarter, contributing to supply stability. In the USA, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the market exhibited a similar stable trend.
Price comparisons between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant variation. Despite facing challenges such as reduced new orders and cautious selling price increments, the overall pricing environment remained steady. The quarter ended with the latest price of USD 3220/MT for Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil (5 mm) CFR Albama Port, reflecting the prevailing stable sentiment in the US market.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2024, the APAC region witnessed a challenging period for Stainless Steel HR Coil pricing, marked by a notable decline. Several factors influenced market prices, including oversupply, weak demand, and global economic uncertainties. The market faced pressures from increased production capacities, particularly in China, leading to a surplus of stainless-steel products.
Demand remained subdued due to sluggish economic growth and uncertainties in key industries like construction and automotive. Additionally, external factors such as the ongoing global economic slowdown and trade tensions contributed to the negative pricing environment. Within China, the most significant price changes were observed, reflecting the overall trend in the region.
Prices experienced a consistent downward trajectory throughout the quarter, with a notable 1% decrease from the previous quarter. The second half of the quarter recorded a sharper decline of 3%, indicating a worsening pricing environment. As the quarter concluded, the price for Stainless Steel-201 HR Coil (3 mm) Ex Shandong in China stood at USD 1046/MT, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment in the market.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Stainless-Steel HR Coil market in Europe experienced a period of declining prices, with significant factors influencing this trend. The market was predominantly affected by weakened demand across various industries, particularly in construction and automotive sectors, leading to an oversupply situation.
The downturn in industrial activity has contributed to sharp declines in demand for SSHRC, as reflected in reduced output and new orders. Political uncertainty further exacerbates this fragile demand environment, making manufacturers cautious in their strategies. Although there is a slight improvement in business confidence linked to potential opportunities from upcoming elections, demand remains subdued. Manufacturers are focusing on stabilizing operations amid these challenges, adjusting inventory levels and purchasing activities to adapt to the changing market conditions.
High manufacturing cost inflation and fluctuating raw material prices added pressure on suppliers, impacting pricing strategies. The cautious supply dynamics, coupled with reduced delivery times, highlighted challenges in maintaining cost competitiveness. Plant shutdowns further disrupted the supply chain during this period. Germany, witnessing the most significant price changes, reflected the overall trend in the region, showcasing a 10% increase from the previous quarter. The second half of the quarter saw a notable 2% price decline compared to the first half. The quarter ended with Stainless Steel-HR Coil priced at USD 3206/MT Ex Ruhr in Germany, emphasizing the negative sentiment prevailing in the pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 showcased a relatively stable pricing environment for Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil in the North American region, marked by minimal fluctuations. Several factors contributed to this stability. Raw material costs, particularly nickel and chromium, remained steady, providing a predictable cost structure for manufacturers. Supply chains also exhibited resilience, with no significant disruptions or plant shutdowns reported, ensuring consistent production levels. Additionally, the balanced interplay between supply and demand aided in maintaining price stability.
In the USA, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the market dynamics reflected stable sentiment. The automotive and construction sectors continued to drive robust demand for value-added stainless steel products, offsetting any potential downturns from other manufacturing sectors. This sustained demand, coupled with a cautious yet steady supply from mills, prevented any drastic price escalations or drops.
Seasonal trends did not significantly impact pricing, and the correlation of price changes with broader economic indicators suggested a stable outlook. The overall trend displayed a negligible percentage change from the first to the second half of the quarter, underscoring market equilibrium. Compared to the previous quarter, there was a notable 8% increase, highlighting a gradual yet steady growth trajectory.
Concluding the quarter, the price for Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil (5 mm) CFR Alabama Port stood at USD 3269/MT, reflecting a stable and positive pricing environment. This consistency underscores the market's resilience and balanced supply-demand dynamics throughout Q2 2024.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a pronounced increase in the price of Stainless Steel HR Coil across Europe, driven by several key factors. Market dynamics were heavily influenced by rising inflation, regulatory changes, and fluctuating energy costs. The implementation of the EU Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) played a pivotal role by mandating benchmarks for domestic production, processing, and recycling capacities, thereby reducing reliance on non-EU sources. Additionally, the European Central Bank's interest rate cut to 3.75% aimed to stimulate economic confidence, although rising alloy surcharges, particularly for nickel and molybdenum, significantly impacted stainless steel pricing.
In Germany, the pricing environment was particularly dynamic, with the country experiencing the most substantial price changes within the region. The quarter exhibited a steady upward trend in prices, influenced by increased freight charges and robust demand, especially from the automotive sector, which saw a notable recovery evidenced by a surge in new car registrations. The relationship between seasonal demand patterns and price changes was notable, with prices in the second quarter rising by 22% compared to the first quarter.
The quarter also faced disruptions, including plant shutdowns at Thyssenkrupp's Duisburg site, which further constricted supply and drove prices up. The overall market sentiment remained positive, reflecting confidence in a continuing bullish trend. Concluding Q2 2024, the price of Stainless Steel-HR Coil (5 mm) Ex Ruhr in Germany reached USD 3207/MT, underscoring a robust and resilient pricing environment.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the APAC region experienced a notable uptick in Stainless Steel HR Coil prices, driven primarily by robust market dynamics and external pressures. The quarter saw significant factors such as rising production costs, constrained supply chains, and increased raw material prices, particularly nickel and iron ore. These elements collectively pushed prices upward, with market sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic despite some operational disruptions.
China, the linchpin of the APAC stainless steel market, exhibited the most substantial price changes. The country grappled with high nickel ore costs and tight nickel pig iron (NPI) supply, exacerbating production expenses. Despite weak downstream demand, Chinese mills maintained high production rates to safeguard market share, leading to a stable yet pressured pricing environment. Seasonal slowdowns and weaker manufacturing activity further influenced market dynamics, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reflecting contraction.
Although the market in the second quarter showed resilience, prices in this quarter fell by 3%, highlighting the market's vulnerability. The quarter-end price for Stainless Steel-201 HR Coil (3 mm) in China was USD 1089/MT, marking a decrease as compared to the previous quarter. Despite these fluctuations, the overall pricing environment remained stable with an upward trajectory, showcasing the market's adaptability and resilience in the face of persistent challenges.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American market for Stainless Steel HR Coil in Q1 2024 experienced a stable pricing environment with moderate supply and demand dynamics. The region saw a minor downturn in prices compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to decreased demand from downstream industries and a decline in nickel prices. Despite expectations of production growth from domestic mills, weak demand from international markets weighed on Stainless Steel HR Coil prices. The US market showed more resilience compared to Europe amid economic challenges.
In the US spot market, there was a slight increase in the availability of Stainless-Steel HR Coils, coupled with a decrease in downstream demand. This high supplies of Nickel, a crucial raw material, contributed to the slight decline in prices. However, Canada Nickel's strategic initiatives to establish nickel and stainless-steel processing facilities aimed to strengthen the North American electric vehicle supply chain with sustainable technologies.
Overall, the pricing environment for Stainless Steel HR Coil in the North American market during Q1 2024 was negative, with prices experiencing a minor decline. The US market was more resilient compared to Europe, but weak demand from downstream industries and international markets weighed on prices. The stable supply and moderate demand dynamics contributed to the overall stability in the market. The quarter-ending price for Stainless Steel-304 HR Coil (5 mm) CFR Alabama Port in the USA was USD 3049/MT.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Stainless-Steel HR Coil market in the APAC region experienced a mixed pricing environment. Overall, market prices remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations observed in China. Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. One significant factor was the decreased demand from downstream industries, particularly the automotive sector. Sluggish economic recovery and geopolitical instability in developed nations like Europe and the United States led to a shift in consumer spending preferences from goods to services, resulting in decreased imports and alterations in trade dynamics. This reduced demand for Stainless Steel HR Coil, leading to cautious behaviour among buyers in the Chinese spot market. Another factor impacting prices was the rise in domestic inventory levels. Reduced consumption both domestically and internationally in China, coupled with a surge in the influx of Stainless-Steel products during the Chinese New Year holiday, led to a notable increase in inventory levels. This increase in supply contributed to the bearish market sentiment. In conclusion, the pricing environment for Stainless Steel HR Coil in the APAC region during Q1 2024 can be described as negative to stable. While there were fluctuations in prices, overall market conditions remained challenging due to reduced demand and increased supply. The quarter-ending price for Stainless Steel-201 HR Coil (3 mm) Ex Shandong in China was USD 1070/MT.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the Stainless-Steel HR Coil market in Europe experienced a mixed pricing environment, with Germany being the most affected. The overall trend for Stainless Steel HR Coil prices slight increases, with some fluctuations influenced by various factors. One of the factors that influenced market prices was the supply disruption in Europe. Operational issues and prolonged industrial disputes at key manufacturing plants, such as Acerinox's Los Barrios and Outokumpu's Tornio sites, led to reduced production rates across European mills. This tightened supply constraints and strained inventory levels and extended lead times, resulting in price increases. In Germany specifically, Infrastructure projects and construction activities drove the demand for Stainless Steel HR Coils. However, the increased demand exacerbated supply-demand imbalances, intensifying competition for available supply, and putting pressure on prices. Overall, the pricing environment for Stainless Steel HR Coils in Europe (Germany) increases. The market faced challenges in supply disruptions and increased demand, leading to supply-demand imbalances. Looking ahead, addressing supply chain disruptions, and boosting production capabilities will be crucial to stabilize the market and ensure its resilience. The latest quarter-ending price for Stainless Steel-HR Coil (5 mm) Ex Ruhr in Germany was USD 2477/MT.
