For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American SMO254 market experienced a notable increase in prices, driven by several key factors. The surge in nickel prices, influenced by global supply challenges and rising mineral costs, played a significant role in pushing prices higher. Manufacturers faced difficulties passing on these increased costs to consumers, impacting the overall pricing dynamics.
Additionally, a rise in import volumes of long carbon and alloy steel products added to the supply dynamics, further influencing market prices. Despite mixed demand signals, with the construction sector showing growth while the manufacturing sector faced challenges, overall, the pricing environment in North America leaned towards an upward trend.
In the USA specifically, the market saw the most significant price changes, with a 7% increase from the previous quarter. This increase was reflective of the broader trends seen in the region, with a 3% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for SMO254 Plate DEL Houston in the USA stood at USD 15496/MT, showcasing a positive pricing environment characterized by increasing prices. No disruptions or plant shutdowns were observed during the quarter.
Asia-Pacific
In the third quarter of 2024, SMO254 pricing in the APAC region saw a significant decline, driven by several factors. Market prices were affected by changes in feedstock material costs, including nickel, chromium, and iron. These fluctuations, combined with weak demand and elevated inventory levels, contributed to the overall downward trend.
China's steel demand is set for significant growth in 2024, largely driven by high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and metal containers, which saw an annual growth rate exceeding 6% in the first eight months. This trend is expected to persist, with some industries approaching double-digit growth. To support this expansion, the Chinese government has enacted monetary and fiscal measures, including cuts to reserve requirements and interest rates, improving market liquidity.
The quarter experienced a 4% decline from the previous quarter, with prices decreasing between the first and second halves. At the end of the quarter, the price for SMO254 (58001850) Ex Sichuan in China was reported at USD 12,426 per metric ton. Despite challenges such as plant shutdowns, the overall pricing environment in the region remained negative, reflecting a continued downturn in SMO254 prices.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a downward trend in SMO254 pricing, reflecting a challenging market environment. Factors contributing to the price decline included weakening demand from key industries, economic headwinds, and slower-than-expected recovery in production after summer shutdowns. The manufacturing sector faced significant challenges, with declining orders and production rates impacting overall market sentiment.
The reduction in purchasing from constructors indicates a broader weakness, impacting the expected demand from key sectors. While there are signs of price increases in raw materials, which traditionally could translate to higher demand for Inconel, current market sentiment suggests that buyers are prioritizing caution over immediate procurement. This reluctance creates a challenging environment for Inconel manufacturers, who are left navigating through a precarious demand landscape. The construction industry in Germany is experiencing increased demand, with signs of stabilization in the property market following a period of uncertainty.
Germany, as a key player in the European market, experienced the most substantial price changes during this period. The country saw fluctuations in SMO254 prices, with a notable 1% decrease from the previous quarter. Additionally, there was a 2% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a more pronounced decline in the latter part. Plant disruptions further exacerbated supply chain disruptions, adding pressure on prices. The quarter concluded with SMO254 Plate FD-Wittingen in Germany priced at USD 16095/MT, highlighting the persistent negative pricing sentiment in the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for SMO254 in North America has experienced a consistent and marked upward trend, primarily driven by significant supply chain disruptions and escalating raw material costs. The imposition of sanctions on Russian raw materials, coupled with geopolitical tensions, created a supply scarcity, notably augmenting the prices of essential components such as nickel. Operational challenges in nickel mines, particularly in Brazil and New Caledonia, exacerbated the supply constraints.
Additionally, logistical hurdles, including increased shipping costs due to disruptions in the South Pacific and the Red Sea crisis, further inflated production expenses. In the USA, where SMO254 prices surged the most, several trends underscored this bullish market sentiment. The constrained supply, accentuated by low inventory levels, met with robust demand from the construction and automotive sectors, driving prices up. Seasonal factors also played a role, with the summer construction boom amplifying demand pressures.
The connection between limited supply and increased demand led to a price hike from the first to the second half of the quarter. Additionally, the price change from Q1 2024 indicated a rising price trend. Concluding the quarter, the price of SMO254 Plate delivered to Houston in the USA stood at USD 14646/MT, reflecting a positive and increasingly bullish pricing environment throughout Q2 2024.
Europe
During Q2 2024, the SMO254 pricing landscape in Europe demonstrated a definitive upward trajectory, driven by a confluence of market forces. The quarter was marked by escalating raw material costs, notably nickel, which exerted substantial upward pressure on SMO254 prices. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions further exacerbated the tight supply conditions, propelling prices higher. The European steel industry grappled with strike actions and delivery delays affecting major mills, including Acerinox’s Cadiz plant, compounding supply constraints and feeding into the bullish price trend. Concurrently, the construction sector's robust demand for high-strength materials like SMO254 sustained the price momentum, reflecting a stable to positive pricing environment throughout the quarter.
Focusing on Germany, the epicentre of price volatility, the quarter witnessed the most pronounced price changes. German distributors faced persistent supply shortages amid rising demand from both the construction and automotive sectors, despite overall industry challenges. Seasonal demand fluctuations played a minimal role as structural market shifts underscored the price dynamics. The price change correlation between the first and second halves of the quarter highlighted a consistent increase, reinforcing the sustained upward trend.
Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices surged by 4%, underscoring a significant quarterly uplift. The latest quarter-ending price for SMO254 Plate FD-Wittingen in Germany reached USD 16179/MT, encapsulating the quarter’s consistent and robust price escalation. The overarching sentiment remains positive, bolstered by strong demand and constrained supply, outlining a bullish outlook for the SMO254 market in Germany.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for SMO254 in the APAC region exhibited a clear downward trend influenced by several significant factors. The market experienced price decreases due to shifts in demand and supply dynamics, coupled with external economic pressures. Notably, disruptions in global nickel supply affected the overall cost structure, while geopolitical tensions and rising shipping costs exacerbated the situation. These elements collectively contributed to the pricing decline observed during this quarter.
Focusing on China, the region with the most substantial price fluctuations, the SMO254 market faced considerable volatility predominantly driven by a slowdown in manufacturing activity and a surplus in nickel inventory. The general pattern showed a negative sentiment, as seen in the quarter-over-quarter change and the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter. Seasonal factors such as decreased industrial demand and prolonged property sector issues further pressured prices.
The correlation between these factors and the observed price trends underscores a challenging market environment. The latest quarter-ending price for SMO254 in China was USD 13016/MT, reflecting the cumulative impact of negative market forces. Additionally, the absence of significant plant shutdowns or disruptions during this period points to supply chain stability yet underscores the dominant influence of macroeconomic and sector-specific challenges on pricing.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the pricing environment for SMO254 in the North America region has been positive overall. Several factors have influenced market prices during this quarter. There has been a slight increase in demand for SMO254, particularly from the automotive and construction sectors. This increased demand has led to a decrease in steel inventories, as import permits for the metal have dropped. The decline in supply has contributed to a slight price increase for SMO254.
In the USA, the pricing environment has also been positive, with prices showing an upward trend driven by government initiatives to reduce pollution and promote electric vehicles, have contributed to higher prices for SMO254. Additionally, higher production costs and freight charges have further increased the price of SMO254 in the USA market.
Looking at the overall trends and seasonality, the first half of the quarter saw a moderate price increase, while the second half of the quarter experienced a more significant price increase. This suggests that the demand for SMO254 has been steadily rising throughout the quarter. In conclusion, the pricing environment for SMO254 in the North America region, particularly in the USA, has been positive in Q1 2024. The increase in demand from the automotive and construction sectors, coupled with a decrease in steel inventories, has led to higher prices for SMO254. The upward trend in prices throughout the quarter indicates a strong market demand for this steel alloy.
Europe
The SMO254 market in Europe during Q1 2024 has experienced various factors that have influenced market prices. The supply of SMO254 has been impacted by the increase in nickel prices, driven by geopolitical dynamics and market speculation. This surge in prices has put pressure on mills to meet the rising demand while also raising production costs, resulting in limited supply. Additionally, the German market has seen a surge in demand for SMO254 due to the expansion of the building industry. The need for nickel, a crucial component of the alloy, has also increased. These changing demand patterns highlight the importance of SMO254 in meeting the needs of the construction sector. In terms of overall trends, the market sentiment has been stable with bullish movement. The supply of SMO254 has been moderate, with steady mill production and increased nickel supply. Demand has been moderate as well, with a decline in construction activity and reduced demand from downstream industries. However, there have been positive indications such as the stabilization of raw material prices and reduced interest from Asian producers in exporting to Europe. In Germany specifically, the price of SMO254 has experienced slight fluctuations. There has been a slight decrease in prices in January, attributed to an oversupply and decreased demand from domestic downstream industries. However, prices have shown a slight increase in February and March. Overall, the pricing environment for SMO254 in Europe during Q1 2024 has been stable, with moderate supply and demand dynamics influenced by factors such as nickel prices, construction activity, and global market trends.
Asia-Pacific
The SMO254 pricing in the APAC region for Q1 2024 has been influenced by various factors, resulting in a mixed pricing environment. Overall, the market has experienced stability, with some regions showing positive trends while others have seen slight declines in prices. In China, which has seen the most significant price changes, the market has been bearish. The supply of SMO254 has been high, driven by surplus nickel supply and increased steel production capacity. This has led to a decrease in prices, as steel producers face reduced profitability due to the overabundance of nickel. Additionally, reduced new orders for steel have resulted in decreased demand for SMO254. In India, the market sentiment has been stable, with moderate supply and demand conditions. The reduced consumption and increased inventory levels have led to a slight decline in prices. However, there are positive indicators, such as the stabilization of raw material prices and increased domestic demand from the automotive and construction sectors. Across the APAC region, there has been a moderate demand for SMO254, with the automotive and construction sectors driving the need for the alloy. However, trade disruptions and uncertainties have limited trade volumes and affected the overall demand. Overall, the pricing environment for SMO254 in the APAC region has been stable, with some regions experiencing slight declines in prices due to supply and demand factors. The market is expected to recover as demand increases in the future.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the SMO254 showed a stable market trend in the US spot market. Firstly, In October 2023, elevated SMO254 prices in the US spot market were driven by increased demand from the chemical and automotive sectors, exacerbated by constrained upstream material supply. Despite a lack of agreement between the European Union and the US government in the steel dispute, strong economic indicators, such as higher bond yields and a robust ISM industrial index, influenced the market.
November saw a decline in SMO254 prices due to increased production, expanded supply from major producer Outokumpu, and reduced consumption in downstream industries. Surpluses in feedstock and lower production costs also played a role. December witnessed a further price decrease attributed to higher inventory levels, reduced demand from downstream sectors, and growth in the global Nickel mining industry.
Despite challenges from cheaper Chinese imports, US SMO254 industries redirected investments to China for enhanced competitiveness. Winter holidays, severe weather, and uncertainties in government policies and the electric vehicle sector contributed to subdued demand in the US spot market. The quarter-ending price for SMO 254 Plate DEL Houston in the USA was USD 12900/MT.
Asia-Pacific
In the APAC region, the SMO254 market in the fourth quarter of 2023 experienced a slightly declining trend amidst several key factors that influenced prices. Firstly, In October, the Chinese SMO254 market experienced a significant price surge, driven by heightened demand from local oil and gas sectors and increased international demand due to the construction of a large CO2-capturing plant in Abu Dhabi. The global rise in energy costs, caused by a shortage of oil and gas supply from the United Arab Emirates and other OPEC nations, also contributed to the price increase. The inventory of feedstock Nickel rose due to renewed interest in a nickel sulfide deposit in Quebec. However, in the latter part of the fourth quarter, SMO254 prices declined due to increased Nickel supply, reduced consumption, and the use of cost-effective recycled materials in manufacturing. Challenges in the Australian coal industry and decreased feedstock Nickel costs further impacted the downturn. In December 2023, despite stable pricing, SMO254 demand decreased globally, influenced by adverse weather conditions and reduced construction and manufacturing activities. Factors such as a surge in Nickel supply, the IPO of Tsingshan Holding Group's battery subsidiary, and disruptions in the Red Sea route added complexity to the market dynamics, leading to lower demand during winter holidays and potential future trends contingent on trade and macroeconomic factors. The price of SMO254 in China at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 is USD 13473/MT.
Europe
The SMO254 pricing in the European region during the fourth quarter of 2023 experienced a static market trend. Firstly, In October 2023, SMO254 prices in the German spot market increased due to heightened demand from the automotive and chemical sectors, coupled with a decrease in raw material supply, leading to reduced production rates. The EU Carbon Border Tax faced challenges, prompting EU steelmakers to advocate for a stronger export ban on EU ferrous scrap. Concerns about future ferrous scrap availability were expressed, and efforts to promote green Direct Reduced Iron production were halted. Despite a market slowdown, UK consumer-related sectors remained resilient. In November, SMO254 prices experienced a downward trend due to reduced demand and oversupply. Nornickel increased its global nickel surplus estimate, attributing it to consistent production. Decreased use of Nickel by downstream battery industries led to a rise in domestic inventory levels. A decline in production costs contributed to the fall in SMO254 prices. The end of 2023 saw a reduction in SMO254 prices due to oversupply and decreased demand. Arvedi Acciai Speciali Terni announced an extended production pause, and the withdrawal of German government subsidies for electric vehicles impacted EV sales and the SMO254 sector. Traditional SMO254 production faced decreasing demand, while the rise of green steel attracted environmentally conscious buyers. The latest price of SMO254 Plate FD-Wittingen in Germany for the last quarter is USD 15380/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The third quarter showed a rising price trend for SMO254 in the US spot market. In August, the price of SMO254 in the US spot market underwent significant fluctuations. Initially, prices rose due to a decrease in Nickel inventory caused by Indonesia's export quotas and reduced steel production in Germany. As the month progressed, economic stability boosted demand, especially in construction and electric vehicles. However, towards August's end, SMO254 prices plummeted due to reduced demand linked to economic uncertainties, oil and gas supply restrictions, the UAW strike's impact on automakers, and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. On the supply side, Nickel supply increased modestly, driven by various factors, including Norilsk Nickel's financial challenges and the Avebury nickel mine's sale. The Philippines also planned substantial investments in processing plants. The scarcity of oil and gas supplies due to OPEC's supply reduction until 2024 raised concerns among SMO254 producers. These fluctuations were influenced by economic and geopolitical factors, resulting in a volatile market characterized by changing supply and demand dynamics.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2023, SMO254 prices in China surged due to various factors. Rising nickel costs, supported by government incentives and battery sector demand, pushed up production expenses, prompting SMO254 manufacturers to raise prices. Domestic customers, expecting higher demand, increased reserves, while mills kept base prices high to capitalize on market sentiment. July saw a surge in orders, driven by limited supply, as local plant utilization slowed and Tsingshan faced production constraints. Robust demand from the electric vehicle sector, led by BYD, Geely, and SAIC, boosted the market. The halt in Indonesian supply quotas further bolstered nickel prices, providing cost support for SMO254 production. Huzhou Jiuli Stainless Steel Material Co. and Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech Metals Co. expansions maintained moderate supply. As demand rose and business activity increased, Chinese spot market inventory levels dropped. The Q3 2023 SMO254 price trend in China was shaped by nickel price fluctuations, strong automotive demand, and supply dynamics, culminating in an upward trajectory.
Europe
In Germany, the price of SMO254 increased and spiked in the third quarter amidst higher nickel prices and diminished spot market stocks. In order to combat this, the local government is planning to upgrade production facilities. Further compounding the issue is a drop in nickel supply from Indonesian mines driven by government restrictions. Rising demand for SMO254 is evident due to expanding railway networks and the electric vehicle sector, and government policies favoring local suppliers have helped maintain low inventory levels. However, September witnessed a drop in SMO254 prices in the German spot market due to reduced demand from the oil and gas sectors and decreased supply from major oil-producing nations. Challenges stemming from US sanctions on Russian energy deliveries have added to the problems, leading to increased energy costs and a pessimistic outlook. Simultaneously, the supply of nickel has increased both domestically and internationally, primarily due to higher extraction rates in overseas mining nations. Furthermore, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision has prompted reduced purchasing activity, causing both domestic and international mills to lower SMO254 prices, creating market uncertainty.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the second quarter of 2023, the US SMO254 Sheet initially uplifted in April and then showed a declining trend in the H2 of the second quarter. In April, the increase in the price of feedstock Nickel in the global market provided cost support to produce SMO254. The Consumer Price Index was on a higher edge at the start of the Quarter due to healthy purchasing activity, denoting a good economic start in the second quarter. The domestic downstream demand was high, which kept the consumption rate on a better end. There was significant growth in the service sector, and thus they were able to provide services at higher offer prices due to increased market demands. In the H2 of the second quarter, the prices declined a bit, majorly due to the debt crisis and rising inflation rate. The stable US economic structure crumbled, and the market situation got pessimistic. In June, the price of the SMO254 Sheet rebounded as the deal signed by the US government extended the debt for two more years, which resulted in the stability of US economic conditions. The hike in interest rate, coupled with rising living costs and plunging household savings, reduced the purchasing power of consumers and led to declining demand for SMO254 Sheet in the US spot market. The various projects signed by the US government increased the downstream demand for SMO254 at the end of the second quarter.
Asia-Pacific
In China, the price of SMO254 sheets was initially rising at the beginning of the second quarter and then continuously declined through May and June. In April, the prices rose as the feedstock Nickel prices increased, which provided strong cost support in the production of SMO254 Sheets in the Chinese spot market. In the latter half of the second quarter, the supply level increased amid weak downstream demand that led to a decrease in SMO254 price in the Chinese spot market. The downstream demand from the local as well as overseas industry was on a higher edge. The suppliers made a controlled shipment that kept the prices up in April. The supply of feedstock Nickel increased as the overseas Indonesian mines increased the extraction and production rate. The Chinese SMO254 manufacturers were buying a large amount of Indonesian Nickel Pig Iron, as the Pig iron and Iron ore raw material were present in abundance in the Global market in surplus at a lower price. The production rate increased in the local Chinese mills as POSCO, a major stainless-steel manufacturer, increased its production. In the quarter ending, the demand got lower from the downstream industries amid the arrival of the Chinese Dragon Boat Festival.
Europe
The German SMO254 Sheet prices initially grew and then plunged in the second quarter of 2023. In April, the rising price of feedstock Nickel helped in providing strong cost support for producing SMO254 9in the German mills. The demand from the local downstream automobile sector increased as the electric vehicle sales were on a higher edge. This kept the SMO254 prices high in April in the German spot market. In the latter half of the second quarter, the global economic condition crumbled, and the inflation rate rose, creating a pessimistic market sentiment from the buyer’s side. The production rate from the local mills increased amid a decline in downstream demand leading to a decline in SMO254 price. The SMO254 Sheet was available in the surplus amount at a cheaper rate from the overseas Chinese manufacturers, which put downward pressure on the German-originated SMO254 in the local as well as overseas markets. The mills were forced to sell at a lower price to sustain the competitive Global market condition. The ripple effect of the declining global economy, coupled with the increased supply, led to a declining price trend for SMO254 in the German spot market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the SMO254 prices in the North American market exhibited mixed market sentiments due to the domestic mills that had continued to push spot market offers higher amid ongoing turmoil in the banking sector. In January, raw materials traders experienced a "short cycle" with more orders and higher prices on the way. However, despite mills attempting to support margins, spot prices for some products had increased, while scrap prices may have continued to support through Q1, given the demand for exports. In February, steel mills had obtained higher flat steel spot offers following a series of price increases since November, driven by global steel and raw material prices remaining high. In March, the US market witnessed an upswing of over 3.6% in SMO254 prices due to mill production cuts, weak demand from downstream sectors, and interest rates at their highest level in years. Downstream demand remained flat. As a result, the SMO254 Plate prices for Ex Houston (USA) had settled at USD 12267/MT.
Asia Pacific
The Chinese market for SMO254 prices experienced bearish market sentiments in the first quarter of 2023 due to the fluctuating raw material prices and dwindling market sentiments. In January, the SMO254 prices declined by more than 5% due to halted logistics services and the mill's suspended delivery of goods, coupled with the CNY holiday. In February, increased supply and decreased demand slightly increased the social inventory of raw material nickel, helping to keep nickel prices low. The news of stainless-steel mills controlling the allocation of goods increased market trust, and stainless-steel trading was satisfactory. In March, the SMO254 plate prices declined by more than 9% due to increased supply and reduced raw material costs caused by financial turmoil in the overseas banking sector. The market pessimism and squeezed profit margin were due to weak overall demand, poor trade links to terminals, and major enterprises' production cuts. The ripple effect resulted in the SMO254 (58001850) prices for Ex Sichuan (China) settling at USD 11775/MT.
Europe
The SMO254 prices in the German market had an upward trend in Q1 2023 due to lower energy costs, increased demand, and rising raw material prices. European factories had restarted their furnaces, which could lead to higher raw material consumption by the end of the current quarter. Despite rising interest rates and a wait-and-see attitude among customers, price speculation in the alloys market continued, leading to an increase in molybdenum prices. However, by the end of February, prices had fallen slightly due to production cuts and ongoing global uncertainty. The downstream market had still witnessed trading activity, although margins throughout the value chain had decreased. European buyers had remained cautious and only made bookings for small tonnages to cover their immediate needs. The limited domestic supply, coupled with furnace stoppages, technical issues at some mills, and steady demand, had supported domestic prices. As a result, the SMO 254 Plate prices for Ex Wittngen (Germany) had settled at USD 14760/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the US market, the SMO 254 prices showcased a sporadic price movement in the final quarter of 2022 owing to the fluctuating demand and supply outlook. According to manufacturers, October saw limited demand across the region, with weaker programs in Chicago and Detroit as mill order books and outages continued to undercut. Many buyers interpreted the price announcements as steelmakers' attempt to halt persistent price declines. As the Christmas and New Year holidays approached, few buyers resumed their purchases. Due to oversupply, prices have dropped by 60% since the beginning of the year. Many buyers interpreted the price announcements as steelmakers' attempt to halt persistent price declines. Changes in mill alloy surcharges primarily influenced US prices in 2022. However, when combined with lower buyer discounts, this resulted in some of the highest global stainless-steel prices in the United States. Prices for SMO 254 increased in December due to rising raw material costs.
Asia Pacific
Towards the close of Q4, the SMO 254 prices edged in the downward direction in the Chinese market owing to the higher availability of the product and limited downstream demand amidst COVID control and prevention measures. The stainless-steel midline had plenty of production capacity, but supply was tight, and the midline was pessimistic. The price of short-term raw materials, on the other hand, was firm, the cost was high, and the steel plant suffered immediate profit losses. The domestic epidemic situation was complicated, logistics were congested, downstream procurement willingness was low, and the transaction needed to be strengthened. Market participants reported that the upstream pure nickel spot was high, while downstream transactions remained weak. In mid-December, domestic molybdenum prices rose sharply, while international molybdenum prices remained rangebound. Manufacturers claim that as the end of the year approaches, some stainless-steel prices, such as SMO 254 Plate, have risen due to pre-holiday stock preparation and the stimulus of favorable macroeconomic policies.
Europe
In the final quarter of 2022, the SMO 254 prices showcased a mixed trend in the European market owing to the fluctuating demand and supply outlook. In October, the contract buyers were not hurrying to close deals due to the sharp decline. Rising interest rates were exacerbating the destocking—rising capital costs, and apparent low demand meant people were looking to liquidate inventories, particularly as the year came to a close. Local producers were required to fill in their rolling programs, with some service centers claiming a two-week lead time. Buyers report that SMO 254 distributors have recently begun restocking, but prices have remained flat as a result of persistently low actual demand in mid-Q4. According to manufacturers, downstream demand was deficient, and customers were not in a hurry because the year was coming to an end, but stock levels were also low. European ferroalloy prices fell as a result of low demand in the run-up to Christmas. At the start of the winter, electricity prices in Europe began to rise again. Confusion over quarantine restrictions in China complicates logistics, driving up manganese metal prices.
For The Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the North American market, the SMO 254 prices witnessed mixed sentiments during the third quarter of 2022 because of the demand-supply imbalance amidst the inflow of imports and steadily falling raw material prices. Fears that the United States is either already in or on the verge of a recession had reduced purchases. Many buyers refuse purchases that would increase their inventories, preferring to keep stocks tight rather than take risks in an uncertain market. Meanwhile, smelters were hesitant to reduce spot prices further due to high ore costs, resulting in a market stalemate. Orders were still firm through the end of the year, but buyers fear that they will start pulling back on orders, either canceling them or pushing them into 2023. As a ripple effect, the SMO 254 Plate prices for FOB Texas (USA) settled at USD 12031/MT.
Asia Pacific
SMO 254 prices on the Chinese market experienced an unprecedented spike in the third quarter of 2022 due to rising molybdenum prices. Steel mill output continued to fall in August and September, which pressurized traders because of inventory levels and the remote likelihood of price reductions. However, downstream consumer demand did not significantly improve, and price movements were complex. Some steel mills were even increasing SMO 254 output. As a result, merchants exercised extreme caution when making purchases. According to market participants, the terminal has not improved significantly. Exports may benefit from the reduction and shutdown of overseas stainless-steel production. To summarise, there has been no change on the supply side. As the traditional peak season approaches, stainless steel consumption may improve to some extent in the future. Stainless steel is expected to have a strong shock trend in the short term. Thus, SMO 254 (5*800*1850) prices for FOB Zhanjiang (China) settled at USD 14455/MT.
Europe
According to market participants, bearish sentiment remained in the European market while trading activity remained low, and mills failed to pass on rising energy costs to steel prices. According to market participants, German players had already accumulated most of the stock in the European market, and distributors struggled to move supplies down when it came to the commodity. Buyers reported that the market was tranquil; no one was interested in making deals because distributors were sitting on large amounts of material they needed to get rid of by the end of the year. According to the market, demand from end-consumers has also been lower than usual for this time of year. Although European stocks remain high, some producers have already begun to raise their prices. Therefore, the SMO 254 Plate prices for FOB Hamburg (Germany) settled at USD 14900/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
SMO 254 prices in the United States increased in the second quarter of 2022 due to concerns about inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions, despite robust downstream demand. However, the scarcity of raw materials, particularly nickel and molybdenum, caused SMO 254 prices to skyrocket in April. According to market participants, the SMO 254 cost has remained stable despite high demand and increased production activity in May and June. However, some gaps have grown significantly in the transition from Q2 to Q3, such as low demand in China affecting SMO 254 costs, and US Oil and Gas growth could spur demand further. According to buyers, sellers' delivery times have increased to near-record levels due to stretched global supply chains, inflationary price pressure, and geopolitical tension. Consistent demand and limited import challenges compelled market participants to opt for a wait-and-see approach for further price momentum.
Asia Pacific
The SMO 254 quotations in China experienced a mixed trend in the second quarter, owing to increased inflation rates over raw material prices, a fluctuating demand outlook, and currency depreciation. In the Chinese domestic market, nickel prices increased by 55%, and molybdenum prices increased by 8% in April, owing to decreased supply despite increased demand, which caused producers to become hesitant about exports. Furthermore, the Yuan exchange rate has fallen precipitously since April 2022, and Chinese lockdowns, the drift of the US dollar index under Fed interest rate hikes, and an increase in demand for the US dollar due to certain uncertainties surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war have multiplied the impact on export activity and Yuan depreciation. With rising inflation, central banks worldwide are raising interest rates to slow their monetary growth rates, affecting SMO 254 demand. Firms also continued to reduce purchases due to outbreaks and logistical disruptions.
Europe
During the second quarter of 2022, the SMO 254 prices witnessed an up-swinging trend owing to the robust demand and soaring raw material costs amidst skyrocketing monthly alloy surcharges. As per sellers, raw materials prices increased, forcing mills to transfer the expenses into final products, thus increasing raw material and manufacturing costs, not only for input materials but also cost increases in processing, as the background. However, European mills have ordered until June, but no new orders for July. Because of skyrocketing monthly alloy surcharges in recent months, the traditional formula pushed SMO 254 up for May and June delivery. Since May, the market has been paused as stocks are high. Also, the service centers and end-users across Europe have stopped purchasing due to the unsustainable price levels for SMO 254 and other Stainless Steel products. Customers are also reluctant to buy because they believe prices will fall, but end-use demand is still evident.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
During the first quarter of 2022, concerns about inflationary pressures and supply chain delays resulting from the Russian-Ukraine war drove SMO 254 prices in the US market. However, the scarcity of raw materials, particularly nickel and molybdenum, caused SMO 254 costs to skyrocket. According to purchasers, sellers' delivery times increased to near-record levels due to stretched global supply chains, inflationary price pressure, and geopolitical uncertainty. Market participants were forced to adopt a wait-and-see attitude for further price progress due to steady demand and limited import hurdles. As a ripple effect, the prices of SMO 254 soared in the regional market.
Asia Pacific
The SMO 254 quotations in the Asia-Pacific rose in the first quarter of 2022, owing to higher inflation rates in raw materials prices, particularly for iron ore, nickel, and molybdenum. Furthermore, the resurgence of COVID-19, combined with a stretched supply chain, deteriorated SMO 254's demand projection. Nickel prices jumped to 55% in the Chinese domestic market, while molybdenum prices climbed to 8%, owing to a shortfall in supply despite growing demand, prompting producers to be cautious about exports. Furthermore, due to the invasion of Ukraine, global market participants were more hesitant to export raw materials, causing raw material prices to skyrocket. SMO 254 (5*800*1850) prices were pushed up due to decreasing inventory levels and settled at Ex Sichuan for USD 13164/MT during March.
MEA
During Q1 of 2022, the SMO 254 quotation in the UAE witnessed an uptrend due to the severe volatility in raw materials prices, primarily Nickel and Chromium. Additionally, the stretched demand-supply gap coupled with Russia's invasion and succeeding sanctions on Russian raw materials by western nations have restrained all cargo resources to and from Russia until further notice. However, the raw material suppliers of SMO 254 in the global market became more reluctant to export raw materials and metal, which has provoked a grappling situation for alternative quotations of supplies. Also, the rising prices of crude and energy have compelled raw material iron ore prices to rise by 18%, and Molybdenum prices up to 8% in the domestic market of UAE. As a ripple effect, the prices of SMO 254 soared in the domestic market of UAE at the end of March.
