For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the SMO254 market in North America faced a challenging landscape characterized by fluctuating nickel prices and ongoing economic uncertainty. Prices declined by 4% in October and continued to decrease by 2% and 3% in November and December, respectively. This downward trend reflects weak demand conditions and increased inventory levels, driven by a contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector and declining export orders exacerbated by international market issues and recent hurricane disruptions.
Key factors influencing the market include significant oversupply in the SMO254 sector, which has led manufacturers to implement price discounts. Despite a marginal recovery in business sentiment and slight increases in automotive sales and construction employment, demand for SMO254 products remains subdued, particularly impacted by the high-interest rate environment, which stifles new residential developments.
The quarter-ending price for SMO254 Plate DEL Houston stood at USD 14,140/MT. Throughout Q4, the pricing trend showcased a consistent decline, influenced by external economic pressures and inherent supply chain challenges. Moving forward, market participants will need to address these challenges while closely monitoring evolving demand dynamics in the construction and manufacturing sectors to sustain competitive positioning.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the SMO254 market in Europe, particularly in Germany, faced considerable challenges marked by a significant decline in prices and weak demand conditions. Prices dropped by 6% in October, followed by a 10% decline in November and 9% in December, reflecting the persistent contraction within the eurozone's construction and manufacturing sectors. The overall pace of contraction accelerated for the first time since July, driven by high interest rates, dampened business activity, and heightened economic uncertainty. Key factors influencing the market included elevated inventory levels among manufacturers, compounded by decreased inquiries from the public sector and a continued decline in new orders, particularly in the manufacturing and construction industries. Despite some temporary rebounds in specific sectors, these were insufficient to offset the broader downturn, leading to increased discounting tactics among suppliers to address oversupply. The quarter-ending price for SMO 254 Plate FD-Wittingen stood at USD 12,391/MT. Throughout Q4, the pricing trend highlighted ongoing pressure, with persistent declines dominating the landscape. As market conditions remain tenuous, participants face significant challenges related to fluctuating demand, regulatory uncertainties, and the balancing act of maintaining profitability amid weakening sales forecasts. Efforts to stabilize pricing and enhance demand moving forward will be critical for market recovery.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the SMO254 market in the APAC region, particularly in China, faced a turbulent landscape characterized by significant price declines and fluctuating demand dynamics. Prices decreased by 3% in October, followed by an 8% drop in November, and a further decline of approximately 1% in December. These fluctuations primarily mirrored the volatility in nickel prices and a weakening construction sector amid ongoing economic adjustments. Key factors influencing market conditions included the impact of government stimulus measures and an overall positive response in manufacturing activity, as indicated by a slight uptick in PMI figures. However, challenges persisted, notably from high inventory levels and weak demand from key sectors, including construction and manufacturing. Despite resilience in the automotive sector, broader sluggishness in construction activity dampened overall market sentiment. The quarter-ending price for SMO254 (5*800*1850) Ex Sichuan stood at USD 10,980/MT. Throughout Q4, pricing trends reflected a downward trajectory driven by external supply chain pressures and bearish demand forecasts. As market participants manoeuvre through this environment, they face critical challenges related to maintaining profitability and adaptable supply strategies amid evolving market realities. Balancing supply and demand in the coming months will be essential for stability.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American SMO254 market experienced a notable increase in prices, driven by several key factors. The surge in nickel prices, influenced by global supply challenges and rising mineral costs, played a significant role in pushing prices higher. Manufacturers faced difficulties passing on these increased costs to consumers, impacting the overall pricing dynamics.
Additionally, a rise in import volumes of long carbon and alloy steel products added to the supply dynamics, further influencing market prices. Despite mixed demand signals, with the construction sector showing growth while the manufacturing sector faced challenges, overall, the pricing environment in North America leaned towards an upward trend.
In the USA specifically, the market saw the most significant price changes, with a 7% increase from the previous quarter. This increase was reflective of the broader trends seen in the region, with a 3% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for SMO254 Plate DEL Houston in the USA stood at USD 15496/MT, showcasing a positive pricing environment characterized by increasing prices. No disruptions or plant shutdowns were observed during the quarter.
Asia-Pacific
In the third quarter of 2024, SMO254 pricing in the APAC region saw a significant decline, driven by several factors. Market prices were affected by changes in feedstock material costs, including nickel, chromium, and iron. These fluctuations, combined with weak demand and elevated inventory levels, contributed to the overall downward trend.
China's steel demand is set for significant growth in 2024, largely driven by high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and metal containers, which saw an annual growth rate exceeding 6% in the first eight months. This trend is expected to persist, with some industries approaching double-digit growth. To support this expansion, the Chinese government has enacted monetary and fiscal measures, including cuts to reserve requirements and interest rates, improving market liquidity.
The quarter experienced a 4% decline from the previous quarter, with prices decreasing between the first and second halves. At the end of the quarter, the price for SMO254 (58001850) Ex Sichuan in China was reported at USD 12,426 per metric ton. Despite challenges such as plant shutdowns, the overall pricing environment in the region remained negative, reflecting a continued downturn in SMO254 prices.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a downward trend in SMO254 pricing, reflecting a challenging market environment. Factors contributing to the price decline included weakening demand from key industries, economic headwinds, and slower-than-expected recovery in production after summer shutdowns. The manufacturing sector faced significant challenges, with declining orders and production rates impacting overall market sentiment.
The reduction in purchasing from constructors indicates a broader weakness, impacting the expected demand from key sectors. While there are signs of price increases in raw materials, which traditionally could translate to higher demand for Inconel, current market sentiment suggests that buyers are prioritizing caution over immediate procurement. This reluctance creates a challenging environment for Inconel manufacturers, who are left navigating through a precarious demand landscape. The construction industry in Germany is experiencing increased demand, with signs of stabilization in the property market following a period of uncertainty.
Germany, as a key player in the European market, experienced the most substantial price changes during this period. The country saw fluctuations in SMO254 prices, with a notable 1% decrease from the previous quarter. Additionally, there was a 2% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a more pronounced decline in the latter part. Plant disruptions further exacerbated supply chain disruptions, adding pressure on prices. The quarter concluded with SMO254 Plate FD-Wittingen in Germany priced at USD 16095/MT, highlighting the persistent negative pricing sentiment in the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for SMO254 in North America has experienced a consistent and marked upward trend, primarily driven by significant supply chain disruptions and escalating raw material costs. The imposition of sanctions on Russian raw materials, coupled with geopolitical tensions, created a supply scarcity, notably augmenting the prices of essential components such as nickel. Operational challenges in nickel mines, particularly in Brazil and New Caledonia, exacerbated the supply constraints.
Additionally, logistical hurdles, including increased shipping costs due to disruptions in the South Pacific and the Red Sea crisis, further inflated production expenses. In the USA, where SMO254 prices surged the most, several trends underscored this bullish market sentiment. The constrained supply, accentuated by low inventory levels, met with robust demand from the construction and automotive sectors, driving prices up. Seasonal factors also played a role, with the summer construction boom amplifying demand pressures.
The connection between limited supply and increased demand led to a price hike from the first to the second half of the quarter. Additionally, the price change from Q1 2024 indicated a rising price trend. Concluding the quarter, the price of SMO254 Plate delivered to Houston in the USA stood at USD 14646/MT, reflecting a positive and increasingly bullish pricing environment throughout Q2 2024.
Europe
During Q2 2024, the SMO254 pricing landscape in Europe demonstrated a definitive upward trajectory, driven by a confluence of market forces. The quarter was marked by escalating raw material costs, notably nickel, which exerted substantial upward pressure on SMO254 prices. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions further exacerbated the tight supply conditions, propelling prices higher. The European steel industry grappled with strike actions and delivery delays affecting major mills, including Acerinox’s Cadiz plant, compounding supply constraints and feeding into the bullish price trend. Concurrently, the construction sector's robust demand for high-strength materials like SMO254 sustained the price momentum, reflecting a stable to positive pricing environment throughout the quarter.
Focusing on Germany, the epicentre of price volatility, the quarter witnessed the most pronounced price changes. German distributors faced persistent supply shortages amid rising demand from both the construction and automotive sectors, despite overall industry challenges. Seasonal demand fluctuations played a minimal role as structural market shifts underscored the price dynamics. The price change correlation between the first and second halves of the quarter highlighted a consistent increase, reinforcing the sustained upward trend.
Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices surged by 4%, underscoring a significant quarterly uplift. The latest quarter-ending price for SMO254 Plate FD-Wittingen in Germany reached USD 16179/MT, encapsulating the quarter’s consistent and robust price escalation. The overarching sentiment remains positive, bolstered by strong demand and constrained supply, outlining a bullish outlook for the SMO254 market in Germany.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for SMO254 in the APAC region exhibited a clear downward trend influenced by several significant factors. The market experienced price decreases due to shifts in demand and supply dynamics, coupled with external economic pressures. Notably, disruptions in global nickel supply affected the overall cost structure, while geopolitical tensions and rising shipping costs exacerbated the situation. These elements collectively contributed to the pricing decline observed during this quarter.
Focusing on China, the region with the most substantial price fluctuations, the SMO254 market faced considerable volatility predominantly driven by a slowdown in manufacturing activity and a surplus in nickel inventory. The general pattern showed a negative sentiment, as seen in the quarter-over-quarter change and the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter. Seasonal factors such as decreased industrial demand and prolonged property sector issues further pressured prices.
The correlation between these factors and the observed price trends underscores a challenging market environment. The latest quarter-ending price for SMO254 in China was USD 13016/MT, reflecting the cumulative impact of negative market forces. Additionally, the absence of significant plant shutdowns or disruptions during this period points to supply chain stability yet underscores the dominant influence of macroeconomic and sector-specific challenges on pricing.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the pricing environment for SMO254 in the North America region has been positive overall. Several factors have influenced market prices during this quarter. There has been a slight increase in demand for SMO254, particularly from the automotive and construction sectors. This increased demand has led to a decrease in steel inventories, as import permits for the metal have dropped. The decline in supply has contributed to a slight price increase for SMO254.
In the USA, the pricing environment has also been positive, with prices showing an upward trend driven by government initiatives to reduce pollution and promote electric vehicles, have contributed to higher prices for SMO254. Additionally, higher production costs and freight charges have further increased the price of SMO254 in the USA market.
Looking at the overall trends and seasonality, the first half of the quarter saw a moderate price increase, while the second half of the quarter experienced a more significant price increase. This suggests that the demand for SMO254 has been steadily rising throughout the quarter. In conclusion, the pricing environment for SMO254 in the North America region, particularly in the USA, has been positive in Q1 2024. The increase in demand from the automotive and construction sectors, coupled with a decrease in steel inventories, has led to higher prices for SMO254. The upward trend in prices throughout the quarter indicates a strong market demand for this steel alloy.
Europe
The SMO254 market in Europe during Q1 2024 has experienced various factors that have influenced market prices. The supply of SMO254 has been impacted by the increase in nickel prices, driven by geopolitical dynamics and market speculation. This surge in prices has put pressure on mills to meet the rising demand while also raising production costs, resulting in limited supply. Additionally, the German market has seen a surge in demand for SMO254 due to the expansion of the building industry. The need for nickel, a crucial component of the alloy, has also increased. These changing demand patterns highlight the importance of SMO254 in meeting the needs of the construction sector. In terms of overall trends, the market sentiment has been stable with bullish movement. The supply of SMO254 has been moderate, with steady mill production and increased nickel supply. Demand has been moderate as well, with a decline in construction activity and reduced demand from downstream industries. However, there have been positive indications such as the stabilization of raw material prices and reduced interest from Asian producers in exporting to Europe. In Germany specifically, the price of SMO254 has experienced slight fluctuations. There has been a slight decrease in prices in January, attributed to an oversupply and decreased demand from domestic downstream industries. However, prices have shown a slight increase in February and March. Overall, the pricing environment for SMO254 in Europe during Q1 2024 has been stable, with moderate supply and demand dynamics influenced by factors such as nickel prices, construction activity, and global market trends.
Asia-Pacific
The SMO254 pricing in the APAC region for Q1 2024 has been influenced by various factors, resulting in a mixed pricing environment. Overall, the market has experienced stability, with some regions showing positive trends while others have seen slight declines in prices. In China, which has seen the most significant price changes, the market has been bearish. The supply of SMO254 has been high, driven by surplus nickel supply and increased steel production capacity. This has led to a decrease in prices, as steel producers face reduced profitability due to the overabundance of nickel. Additionally, reduced new orders for steel have resulted in decreased demand for SMO254. In India, the market sentiment has been stable, with moderate supply and demand conditions. The reduced consumption and increased inventory levels have led to a slight decline in prices. However, there are positive indicators, such as the stabilization of raw material prices and increased domestic demand from the automotive and construction sectors. Across the APAC region, there has been a moderate demand for SMO254, with the automotive and construction sectors driving the need for the alloy. However, trade disruptions and uncertainties have limited trade volumes and affected the overall demand. Overall, the pricing environment for SMO254 in the APAC region has been stable, with some regions experiencing slight declines in prices due to supply and demand factors. The market is expected to recover as demand increases in the future.
