For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
Throughout Q4 2024, the propylene oxide (PO) market in North America exhibited mixed dynamics, with prices declining in October and November before increasing slightly in December. In the USA, the market saw the most significant price changes. October's decline was driven by disruptions from Hurricane Francine, which caused temporary plant shutdowns and a drop in downstream demand from sectors like polyols and propylene glycol. Weak industrial activity and cautious purchasing behavior added to the bearish sentiment.
November extended the downward trend as feedstock propylene prices softened and inventory levels remained elevated. Subdued demand from the construction sector, coupled with logistical constraints, limited market recovery.
However, December saw a slight price increase as the automotive sector provided support, with robust vehicle sales boosting demand for propylene glycol and polyurethane foams. Global supply constraints from plant shutdowns in Asia and Europe further tightened availability, aiding the upward momentum. Ending the quarter, the price for propylene oxide in the USA was recorded at USD 1,558/MT FOB Louisiana, reflecting mixed demand patterns and supply constraints.
APAC
Throughout Q4 2024, the propylene oxide (PO) market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region exhibited varied trends, with prices declining in October and stabilizing through November and December. In Japan, the market saw the most significant price changes, with October's decline driven by weak downstream demand from the polyols and propylene glycol sectors, impacted by sluggish construction and automotive activity. Oversupply exacerbated by production increases across Northeast Asia and declining feedstock propylene costs further pressured prices. By November, the market stabilized as producers balanced inventories and adopted cautious production strategies to prevent oversupply. Demand from downstream sectors showed slight improvement but remained generally subdued, with end-users taking a conservative procurement approach. In December, PO prices held steady, reflecting a bearish sentiment influenced by seasonal slowdowns in construction, particularly in northern Japan. High inventories and restrained demand from key sectors like polyols and propylene glycol continued to weigh on market momentum. Ending the quarter, the price for propylene oxide in Japan was recorded at USD 1,011/MT FOB Osaka, reflecting the overall stability amid muted demand and balanced supply conditions.
Europe
Throughout Q4 2024, the propylene oxide (PO) market in Europe experienced mixed trends, with prices declining in October and November before increasing in December. In the Netherlands, the market saw the most significant price changes. October's decline was driven by weak downstream demand from sectors such as polyols and propylene glycol, impacted by a slowdown in construction and high energy costs. November extended this bearish sentiment as feedstock propylene prices dropped, and production adjustments kept inventory levels manageable, though market sentiment remained cautious. However, December saw a rebound in prices due to improved demand from the automotive sector, with strong vehicle sales driving increased consumption of propylene glycol and polyurethane foams. While the construction sector continued to struggle with high borrowing costs and seasonal slowdowns, the automotive industry's resilience helped offset some of the market's weaknesses. Producers focused on balancing output with demand while navigating higher energy costs, maintaining cautious inventory management. Ending the quarter, the price for propylene oxide in the Netherlands was recorded at USD 1,451/MT FOB Rotterdam, reflecting demand recovery from the automotive sector amidst persistent construction challenges.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 has been marked by higher price increases displaying a mixed trend in the Propylene Oxide market in North America, with the USA experiencing the most notable changes. Various factors have contributed to this uptrend. The surge in demand for polyol products, driven by applications in construction chemicals and automotive sectors, has propelled prices upwards. Supply constraints, including plant shutdowns and disruptions caused by natural disasters like Hurricane Beryl, have further tightened the market, supporting price hikes. Additionally, the stability in propylene prices and increased conversion rates to propylene oxide have added to the price escalation.
In the USA specifically, the market has witnessed a consistent upward trend in Propylene Oxide prices throughout the quarter. Seasonal influences, such as increased demand for polyols during the summer months, have also played a role in driving prices higher. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices assessed at the September end have surged by 8%, showcasing significant growth in the market, driven primarily by higher propylene prices. Moreover, the quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% indicates sustained bullish sentiment.
The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter reveals a 3% price increase, culminating in the latest quarter-ending price of USD 1675/MT for Propylene Oxide FOB Louisiana in the USA. This quarter has demonstrated a positive pricing environment for Propylene Oxide, characterized by consistent and substantial price growth.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, the APAC region witnessed a significant decline in Propylene Oxide prices, with Japan experiencing the most notable price fluctuations. This quarter has been characterized by a multitude of factors influencing market prices. Oversupply of Propylene Oxide, coupled with weakening demand in downstream industries, has led to a negative pricing environment. The prices at the end of September dropped 14% over the prices of the previous year, assessed for the last week of September. In comparison to the previous quarter, the marginal 4% indicating a bearish trend. The first half saw relatively stable prices with prices peaking in the early days of August followed by bearish movement as freight charges and weaker propylene prices, highlighting a shift towards lower prices. Notably, the quarter-ending price of USD 1025/MT for Propylene Oxide FOB Osaka in Japan signifies the overall decreasing sentiment prevailing in the market. Seasonality and market dynamics have played a pivotal role in driving prices down, with the pricing environment predominantly negative throughout the quarter. Along with seasonality, falling margins and weaker demand in major end-use like polyurethanes, unsaturated polyesters as well as cosmetics also kept the market bearish overall.
Europe
Propylene Oxide prices in the Europe region during the third quarter of 2024 have experienced a mixed trend. with. Year on Year comparison with the previous year’s September’s last assessed price revealed a drop of 19% in prices partially due to falling energy prices and weaker propylene prices due to lower demand of PP. The main factors influencing market prices include overproduction, higher supply levels, and lower demand in key sectors such as construction and consumer goods. These conditions have led to bearish market sentiment, with prices falling steadily throughout the quarter. In the Netherlands, which has seen the most significant price changes, the correlation between market trends and price fluctuations has been pronounced. The prices dropped by 5% throughout the quarter cumulatively while the prices peaked twice due to supply disruptions. In conclusion, the latest quarter-ending price of USD 1380/MT for Propylene Oxide FOB Rotterdam in the Netherlands reflects the overall negative pricing environment experienced in the region during Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American propylene oxide market has experienced a complex interplay of factors, leading to significant price fluctuations. The quarter commenced with a steady rise in propylene oxide prices, largely driven by upstream propylene costs and robust downstream demand for polyols and propylene glycol (PG). Propylene prices surged due to supply constraints, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and scheduled refinery maintenance, which in turn elevated the cost of production for propylene oxide. Additionally, the anticipation of tropical hurricanes added a speculative premium to feedstock prices, further tightening market conditions.
In the USA, where the price changes were most pronounced, the market saw a notable trend of increasing prices. The second quarter observed cumulative price rise of 3%. The price generally remained stable relatively with minor fluctuations owing to feedstock propylene prices fluctuating throughout the quarter, while the surge in prices was observed in the last month of the quarter aided by peaking of shipping prices. This increase was attributed to stronger-than-expected demand recovery in the automotive and construction sectors, coupled with seasonal upticks in polyol consumption driven by the onset of summer.
Overall, the pricing environment for propylene oxide in the USA has been positive, underpinned by resilient demand and constrained supply. The quarter concluded with propylene oxide prices at USD 1610/MT FOB Louisiana, reflecting a consistent upward momentum. The market sentiment remains bullish, supported by ongoing demand recovery and feedstock price pressures, positioning propylene oxide firmly on an upward pricing trajectory in the North American region.
Europe
During Q2 2024, the Propylene Oxide (PO) market in Europe experienced a mixed trend which largely tended towards weak pricing environment, however periods of moderate recovery was also observed. The decline in prices was predominantly driven by a convergence of several factors. Among these, oversupply remained a critical issue, exacerbated by high inventory levels and weak demand from downstream polyol producers. Crude oil price fluctuations also played a role, with Brent crude's surge to USD 87/MT impacting the feedstock propylene prices, resulting in cost pressures that downstream markets struggled to absorb. Additionally, bearish sentiment was sustained by subdued activity in the construction sector, further dampened by adverse weather conditions that affected construction permits and overall demand. Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the overall trend was consistently downward throughout the quarter. Seasonality factors, such as lower demand during the early summer months, coupled with operational constraints due to floods in the Rhine valley, further accentuated the price drop. The correlation between high inventory levels and deflationary pressures was evident as manufacturers faced challenges in adjusting production to match the tepid market demand. Throughout the quarter, the prices cumulatively fell by 9.4%. However, the period of May saw price peaking again due to speculative orders being put amidst Rhine valley flooding. The quarter concluded with the price of Propylene Oxide FOB Hamburg at USD 1540/MT, encapsulating the overall negative pricing environment. The prevailing market conditions suggest that the pricing environment remained unfavorable, characterized by a consistent downward pressure on prices.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Propylene Oxide (PO) market in the APAC region has experienced mixed price adjustments, driven by a confluence of factors that underscored market dynamics. The quarter has been defined by an interplay of supply constraints, currency fluctuations, and strong downstream demand from polyol industries, including automotive, construction, and personal care sectors. The closure and maintenance of key production facilities exacerbated the supply crunch, while bullish propylene markets transferred cost pressures down the value chain, leading to elevated PO prices. Increased freight costs and logistical challenges further intensified the upward pricing trend, as suppliers faced elevated premiums and reduced tanker availability. Japan, in particular, witnessed pronounced price changes, reflecting the most significant volatility in the region. The Japanese PO market saw an overall price increase of 3% throughout the quarter, with the prices bottoming occurring in the first week of May followed by a period of stability. This stability in the face of broader market fluctuations underscores the balancing act between supply constraints and moderate demand pressures. Seasonal factors, such as pre-monsoon stocking and summer demand for downstream applications, played a pivotal role in sustaining the price momentum. The prices began surging by for the last month of quarter as quarter end stocking approached its end and the major routes of APAC-US and APAC-Europe remained highly packed for deliveries lined up. The latest quarter-ending price for Propylene Oxide FOB Osaka stood at USD 1065/MT, marking the culmination of a quarter characterized by a stable yet upward price trajectory. Overall, the pricing environment for Propylene Oxide in Japan has been stable with a positive bias, driven by strategic supply management and robust downstream demand, offsetting broader market adversities.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Propylene Oxide prices in the first quarter of 2024 observed bullish sentiments in North American region owing to a newer contract for supplies coming into effect. January production and newer deliveries of gas and propane in North America deliveries saw significant deflation over previous contracts which has led to increase in cracker spread margins and downstream propylene and propylene oxide production. Propylene Oxide prices turned strongly bullish as demand improved in North America, with spot markets following the contract pricing movements, spot markets showed rigorous buying activities as downturns eased with pending orders slowing down due to higher utilization and production, especially USA. Consumption demand remained subdued for propylene oxide derivatives as Winter slump intensified with Mexican demand slowing, though inventories in North America remained on the higher end.
The month of February saw upward price revisions as temperatures improved with downturns easing. Spot markets saw significant inventory building activities with US FOB Louisiana quotations going up by USD 120/MT in certain spot deliveries to China Lunar New Year began its commencement coupled with supply disruption due to tanker shortages continuing in APAC region. Demand for propylene glycol and other polyols increased as inventory expansion in certain isocyanates market intensified. Furthermore, cosmetics and consumer markets continue to recover as business and consumer confidence continues to improve as service sectors growth offset slump in manufacturing in 2023.
Overall, the pricing environment for Propylene Oxide in the North American region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with prices increasing. This is reflected in the percentage change from the same quarter last year, which stands at -11% as demand slump continued into the first quarter of 2024.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 observed bullish sentiments in European region owing to a newer contract for supplies coming into effect for propylene oxide prices. January production and newer deliveries of gas and propane in Europe deliveries saw significant deflation over previous contracts which has led to increase in cracker spread margins and downstream propylene and propylene oxide production. Propylene Oxide prices turned strongly bullish as demand improved in the Eurozone region, with spot markets following the contract pricing movements, spot markets showed rigorous buying activities as downturns eased with pending orders slowing down due to higher utilization and production, especially Belgium. Consumption demand remained subdued for propylene oxide derivatives as Winter slump intensified with Northern Europe observing high showers, railway strikes and protests, which had caused higher spot pricing while parts of Mediterranean and Southern Europe saw high production activities especially Italian markets.
The month of February saw upward price revisions as temperatures improved with downturns easing. Spot markets saw significant inventory building activities with German FOB Hamburg quotations going up by USD 50/MT in certain spot deliveries to China as Chinese Lunar New Year began its commencement coupled with supply disruption due to tanker shortages continuing in APAC region. Demand for propylene glycol and other polyols increased as inventory expansion in certain isocyanates market intensified. Furthermore, cosmetics and consumer markets continue to recover as business and consumer confidence continues to improve as service sectors growth offset slump in manufacturing in 2023.
Overall, the pricing environment for Propylene Oxide in the European region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with prices increasing. This is reflected in the percentage change from the same quarter last year, which stands at -11% as demand slump continued into the first quarter of 2024.
Asia Pacific
Propylene Oxide prices in the first quarter of 2024 observed mix sentiments in Asia-Pacific region owing to a newer contract for supplies coming into effect. January deliveries from Saudi and European deliveries saw significant downward price revisions for Asian deliveries as downturns and capacity utilization for propylene oxide supply turned stronger in European and Middle Eastern markets. Prices revised downwards to a tune of USD 100/MT in some deliveries, with spot markets following the contract pricing movements, spot markets for January remained subdued due to lower trading activities due to high inventories and weaker consumption as Winter progressed.
The month of February saw upward price revisions as temperatures increased in large parts of China, Korea and Japan with downturns easing. Spot markets saw significant inventory building activities with CFR Qingdao quotations going up in certain spot deliveries as Chinese Lunar New Year began its commencement coupled with supply disruption due to tanker shortages continuing in APAC region. Demand for propylene glycol and other polyols triggered the rise in spot prices as East Asia enlarged their inventories to cater to consumption demand led by China. The spot market turned dull again after the last week of February as Chinese markets came online with excess supply being destocked for the next two weeks, though propylene oxide consumption increased overall YoY basis, supply exceeded demand for New Year festivities. This was partially offset by pre-summer stocking especially seen in the propylene glycol inventories.
Overall, the pricing environment for Propylene Oxide in the APAC region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with prices increasing. This is reflected in the percentage change from the same quarter last year, which stands at -24% as demand slump continued into the first quarter of 2024.
