For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the price trend of potassium nitrate in North America saw a notable upward trajectory, driven by several key factors. Strong demand from the agricultural sector, particularly for fertilizers, was the primary driver of price increases as farmers sought to replenish their stocks ahead of the planting season.
The combination of favorable crop conditions and growing agricultural activity further supported the surge in demand. However, the supply side faced significant constraints, exacerbated by ongoing supply chain disruptions, such as transportation bottlenecks and shortages of essential raw materials. These supply challenges, combined with production issues at manufacturing facilities—often attributed to unplanned maintenance or operational difficulties—temporarily tightened supply, putting additional upward pressure on prices.
Additionally, rising energy costs played a critical role in boosting production expenses. The higher costs of energy used in manufacturing processes were eventually passed on to consumers, contributing further to the increase in potassium nitrate prices. Despite these challenges, the market remained resilient, with demand-driven pressures largely dictating the pricing trend throughout the quarter.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the potassium nitrate market in the APAC region experienced a mixed trend, marked by an initial decline followed by recovery. In the first half of the quarter, prices fell due to a surplus in supply driven by enhanced domestic production and seasonal demand slowdown after the peak planting season. Additional factors, such as logistical disruptions, including port congestion and delays, contributed to inventory accumulation. The agricultural sector reduced fertilizer consumption, further weakening demand, while cautious purchasing by downstream buyers kept trading activity restrained. By mid-quarter, the market saw balanced supply-demand dynamics, although overall activity remained subdued.
In the second half, potassium nitrate prices recovered due to a combination of global demand tightening domestic supply and production constraints caused by rising input costs and reduced output. Export restrictions from major producers and geopolitical factors compounded supply-side challenges. Despite muted domestic agricultural demand, international demand, particularly from high-value crop sectors, supported the recovery. The market also faced broader economic uncertainties, with producers and consumers carefully managing resources. The quarter highlighted the sector's sensitivity to global supply chain dynamics, seasonal trends, and policy-driven export restrictions. In China, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices decreasing by 9% from the previous quarter.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the potassium nitrate market in Europe, particularly in the Netherlands, exhibited an overall decline in prices, influenced by a mix of demand and supply factors. During October, prices initially rose due to strong agricultural and industrial demand, coupled with supply constraints arising from production disruptions, rising raw material costs, and logistical challenges like port congestion at Rotterdam. The agricultural sector’s demand was bolstered by horticulture and greenhouse farming, while the industrial sector, including glassmaking and ceramics, contributed to the upward trend.
However, in November, prices began to decline as increased production capacity ensured stable supply levels. Seasonal fluctuations in agricultural demand, sufficient inventory levels, and economic conditions further weakened immediate purchasing activity. By December, the market saw a continued downward trend, driven by a seasonal slowdown in agricultural activities and reduced fertilizer purchases, as many farmers had already replenished stocks ahead of the growing season. On the supply side, expanded production capacity and competitive pressures alleviated earlier constraints, leading to a further easing of prices. This combination of softer demand and improved supply dynamics resulted in an overall price decline for potassium nitrate in Europe. However, This quarter showed a 3% incline in prices as compared to the previous quarter.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the potassium nitrate market in the MEA region, particularly in Jordan, experienced a mixed price trend, characterized by an initial decline followed by a significant incline.
In October and November, potassium nitrate prices declined due to reduced agricultural and industrial demand, especially in crop production, horticulture, and glassmaking. The stabilization of raw material costs, including potassium chloride and nitric acid, along with stable production levels, alleviated supply pressures. Additionally, improvements in logistics and lower transportation costs helped ease supply chain challenges. Seasonal slowdowns in agricultural activity, coupled with sufficient inventory levels, led to reduced demand and contributed to the overall price decline.
However, by December, prices rebounded as agricultural demand surged in anticipation of the upcoming growing season. This rise in demand was coupled with supply constraints due to maintenance shutdowns at production plants and rising input costs. Geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global supply chains further exacerbated the supply-tightening conditions, driving a significant increase in prices. This shift from a decline to an increase was a result of the changing dynamics between supply, demand, and logistical factors across the quarter. In Jordan, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices decreasing by 7% from the previous quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Potassium Nitrate market in North America faced a significant decline in prices, driven by a combination of demand and supply factors. Seasonal slowdowns in agricultural activity resulted in reduced demand for fertilizers, as farmers scaled back purchases amid unfavorable weather conditions. Economic uncertainty surrounding a potential slowdown further impacted the demand for Potassium Nitrate-based products, leading to cautious buying behavior among consumers.
On the supply side, increased domestic production, spurred by improved plant efficiencies and new capacities, created a surplus in the market, which exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, producers and distributors adjusted their inventories, temporarily boosting supply levels and contributing to the price decline. The market also saw an uptick in imports of Potassium Nitrate from other regions, further saturating the domestic market and lowering prices.
Overall, the market sentiment in North America remained predominantly bearish, reflecting low demand coupled with supply surpluses. Plant shutdowns exacerbated the situation, creating additional supply constraints and reinforcing the downward trend in prices throughout the quarter. The combination of these factors painted a challenging landscape for the Potassium Nitrate market in North America during Q3 2024.
Europe
In Q3 2024, In Q3 2024, the Potassium Nitrate market in the European region experienced a significant price uptrend, driven by strong seasonal demand from the agricultural sector as farmers prepared for planting. This surge in demand coincided with supply constraints due to production challenges, equipment failures, and port congestion, which delayed fertilizer imports and exports. Labor shortages and logistical inefficiencies at major ports further tightened supply, while geopolitical tensions and adverse weather complicated market dynamics. Amid these challenges, Russia's role in the global fertilizer market became increasingly crucial, with imports to the EU rising sharply despite ongoing geopolitical issues. Overall, the market remained bullish, reflecting the complex interplay between seasonal demand and persistent supply chain disruptions. In the Netherlands, which saw the most substantial price changes, the market exhibited a consistent upward trend. This quarter showed a 1% incline in prices as compared to the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price of Potassium Nitrate FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands stood at USD 939/MT, reflecting the overall bullish pricing trend witnessed throughout Q3 2024.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Potassium Nitrate market in the APAC region experienced a decline in prices, influenced by a combination of factors. The Potassium Nitrate market in China experienced a notable decline in prices, primarily due to reduced demand and increased supply. A seasonal slowdown in agricultural activity, coupled with economic uncertainty, led to decreased fertilizer usage among farmers. On the supply side, enhanced domestic production and higher inventory levels created a market surplus, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, logistical challenges, including congestion at the Port of Ningbo due to a significant container explosion, further complicated supply chain dynamics. Despite substantial fertilizer imports from Russia, the overall demand for Potassium Nitrate remained moderate, reflecting the impact of economic pressures such as rising unemployment and trade tensions. This combination of factors contributed to bearish market sentiment in the region as prices continued to decline. In China, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices decreasing by 2% from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price for Potassium Nitrate in China was noted at USD 765/MT FOB Shanghai, signaling a consistently decreasing pricing environment throughout Q3 2024.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Potassium Nitrate market in the MEA region witnessed a significant decline in prices, with Jordan experiencing the most substantial changes. The decrease in prices can be attributed to various factors impacting the market dynamics. A seasonal slowdown in agricultural activities during the summer months led to reduced demand for fertilizers, creating an oversupply situation. Additionally, enhanced production efficiencies and inventory adjustments contributed to the market surplus, further driving prices down. The global potash market remained stable, but local demand struggles in Jordan intensified the downward price trend. Freight rates fluctuated due to congestion and geopolitical tensions, impacting transportation costs. In Jordan specifically, the pricing environment exhibited a clear negative trend throughout the quarter. Seasonal factors, economic uncertainty, and increased production capacities all played a role in the price decline. The correlation between reduced fertilizer demands post-harvest and lower production costs led to downward pressure on prices. Despite some stability in the global market, Jordan faced challenges due to subdued demand and surplus supply. In Jordan, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices decreasing by 1% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with Potassium Nitrate priced at USD 823/MT FOB Aqaba, reflecting the prevailing negative sentiment in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
During Q2, the North American Potassium Nitrate market experienced a significant decline in prices. The agriculture sector, the primary consumer of Potassium Nitrate, faced a downturn in activity due to adverse weather conditions and economic challenges, leading to reduced demand. Industrial applications, including chemical processing, pharmaceuticals, and food processing, also contributed to the weakened demand as these sectors faced slowdowns.
On the supply side, increased domestic production and higher imports from other regions created a surplus, exerting downward pressure on prices. Producers and distributors adjusting their inventory levels further amplified the supply increase. Additionally, global market conditions, such as a decline in international Potassium Nitrate prices, influenced the North American market.
Despite favorable planting conditions, farmers adopted a cautious approach, anticipating further price drops. International demand, particularly from Europe and Brazil, remained muted due to adverse weather conditions. The ample supply, combined with reduced production costs from lower feedstock prices, further contributed to the downward pressure on Potassium Nitrate prices. Overall, these combined factors led to a notable decrease in Potassium Nitrate prices across North America during Q2.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Potassium Nitrate (KNO3) market exhibited a discernible decline in prices, influenced by a combination of reduced demand and increased supply. The quarter was marked by a seasonal downturn in agricultural activities, leading to diminished demand for KNO3 fertilizers. Concurrently, European farmers increasingly opted for alternative fertilizers perceived as more economical, such as ammonium nitrate or urea. The supply side saw a significant influx of imports from major producers, contributing to a surplus that exacerbated the downward pressure on prices.
Spain experienced the most substantial price changes within this context, reflecting broader regional trends. The overall trend in Spain was characterized by a consistent decrease in KNO3 prices, driven by seasonal factors and a marked shift towards more affordable fertilizer alternatives. The correlation in price changes was evident as the Spanish market mirrored the general European downturn, albeit with greater intensity. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices recorded an -8% decrease, highlighting the extent of the decline. Additionally, a comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a further -5% drop, underscoring the persistent downward trajectory. The latest quarter-ending price for KNO3 FD Barcelona in Spain was USD 970/MT, encapsulating the negative pricing environment that prevailed throughout Q2 2024.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the APAC region witnessed a notable increase in Potassium Nitrate prices, driven by a confluence of factors contributing to market dynamics. An uptick in demand during the peak agricultural season, coupled with supply constraints, significantly influenced market prices. Seasonal preparations for crop fertilization heightened the demand for Potassium Nitrate, further exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and regulatory hurdles. Additionally, rising costs of essential feedstock materials such as ammonium nitrate and potassium hydroxide further inflated production expenses, subsequently pushing up market prices. The strategic shift towards sustainable agricultural practices also played a role, as farmers increasingly favored Potassium Nitrate for its efficacy in enhancing crop yields.
China, experiencing the most significant price changes, saw a consistent upward trend in Potassium Nitrate prices, reflecting broader regional patterns. The seasonality effect, marked by intensified fertilizer application during pre-monsoon planting, coupled with robust export demand, contributed to the price surge. Despite increased domestic production, the supply could not fully meet the burgeoning demand, leading to a tightening market. Compared to the previous quarter, prices in China saw a substantial 3% increase, with a noticeable price rise between the first and second half of Q2. The quarter concluded with Potassium Nitrate prices at USD 842/MT FOB Shanghai, underscoring a predominantly positive pricing environment driven by strong demand and constrained supply.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region observed a consistent rise in Potassium Nitrate prices, driven by intensifying demand and constrained supply dynamics. The market experienced heightened demand from key agricultural sectors, alongside stable or rising costs of essential raw materials such as ammonium nitrate and potassium hydroxide. Moreover, the global fertilizer market exhibited bullish trends, adding pressure on the regional prices.
Focusing on Jordan, which recorded the most significant price changes, the market dynamics were markedly influenced by several factors. The pre-monsoon farming season catalyzed substantial demand increases, particularly driven by heightened purchasing activities from major importers like India and the USA. Limited domestic production capacity led to a notable supply shortage, compelling increased export activity and tightening local supply. In addition, the strategic partnership between Jordan Phosphates Mines Company (JPMC) and Waterise for a desalination project underscored the nation's commitment to sustainable resource management amid rising costs.
Thus, the period marked a positive pricing environment, reflecting robust demand and strategic supply chain adaptations. The quarter concluded with the price of Potassium Nitrate at USD 870/MT FOB Aqaba in Jordan, underscoring the significant upward trajectory in the pricing landscape of the MEA region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
Europe
During the first quarter, potassium nitrate (KNO3) prices in the Netherlands exhibited significant fluctuations due to varied demand and supply dynamics. In January and February, KNO3 prices rose by 3% and 10%, respectively, driven by seasonal demand surges from the agriculture sector as preparations for the spring growing season began. Both greenhouse horticulture and open field applications saw heightened demand, alongside a slight uptick in KNO3 usage as a food preservative during the winter months.
However, in March, KNO3 prices declined by 5% due to a seasonal slowdown in agricultural activities and substitution with alternative fertilizers like ammonium nitrate or urea. Although freight charges increased in January and February, they stabilized in March, affecting pricing. Dependence on imports from Chile and Israel, along with production shortfalls and increased domestic demand in these countries, tightened supply.
Meanwhile, the HCOB Global Composite PMI rose to 49.9 in March from 49.2 in February, indicating a marginal deterioration in business conditions. The services sector expanded, while manufacturing contracted at a slower pace. Overall, the first quarter saw an initial rise in KNO3 prices due to strong agricultural demand and supply chain challenges, followed by a decline in March as seasonal slowdowns and economic factors reduced demand while supply conditions improved. The latest quarter-ending price for KNO3 FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands was USD 970/MT.
APAC
The pricing environment for Potassium Nitrate in the APAC region during Q1 2024 has been influenced by various factors. Overall, market prices have experienced fluctuations, with China being the most affected country.
In China, supply constraints and export dynamics have contributed to potential price increases for Potassium Nitrate. Production issues and limited domestic production capacity have led to temporary shortages and higher prices. Export restrictions and high global demand have further tightened domestic supply, exacerbating price increases. Rising raw material costs, including global potash and nitric acid prices, have also strained production economics, and influenced final prices in China.
Demand for Potassium Nitrate in China has been driven by domestic agricultural needs and the growing popularity of greenhouse farming. The surge in demand has been fueled by the onset of the spring fertilizer application season and the expansion of greenhouse farming. This increased demand, combined with global demand and potential stockpiling activities, has further influenced prices in China.
In terms of overall trends and seasonality, the pricing environment for Potassium Nitrate in Q1 2024 has been bullish, with supply constraints and rising demand driving prices higher. However, the off-season for fertilizer use in January has temporarily eased pricing pressures.
Comparing the current quarter to the same quarter last year, there has been a significant increase in prices due to supply constraints and rising raw material costs. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 has been positive, indicating a further increase in prices.
As of the end of the quarter, the latest price for Potassium Nitrate in China is USD 800/MT FOB Shanghai.
MEA
The MEA region experienced a mixed pricing environment for Potassium Nitrate in Q1 2024. Overall, market prices were influenced by several significant factors.
In Jordan, the largest producer of Potassium Nitrate, prices witnessed notable fluctuations throughout the quarter. Initially, there was a slight increase in prices, due to increased demand driven by heightened agricultural activity for upcoming summer crops and the peak sowing season. The gradual rise in agricultural activity contributed to an overall increase in demand, leading to the price increase.
Towards the end of the quarter, prices began to decline due attributed to factors such as heavy production in Jordan and steady output from other major producers like Chile and China. However, this upward trend was soon reversed as concerns about a global economic slowdown and the agricultural off-season led to lower demand for fertilizers, causing prices to decline.
Overall, the pricing trend for Potassium Nitrate in Jordan showed a mixed pattern, with prices initially rising and then declining towards the end of the quarter. Despite these fluctuations, the percentage change from the previous quarter was not significant, indicating a relatively stable pricing environment.
The latest quarter-ending price for Potassium Nitrate FOB Aqaba in Jordan was recorded at USD 845/MT. This price reflects the overall stable pricing environment in the region during Q1 2024.
