For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the prices of Potassium Chloride in the North America region declined due to a notable slowdown in consumer demand. Despite moderate overall demand, driven by consistent domestic needs and ongoing orders from European and Asian importers, the market primarily saw interest from smaller buyers.
This cautious approach stemmed from broader uncertainties in the agricultural sector, particularly influenced by fluctuating weather patterns that hindered crop growth and made fertilizer forecasting challenging for farmers. While the supply of domestically produced Potassium Chloride remained steady, adverse weather events, including hurricanes and heavy windstorms, disrupted agricultural operations, prompting farmers to delay purchases. The market was characterized by low to moderate supply levels, with manufacturing facilities operating efficiently despite challenges. Inventory levels remained stable, buoyed by steady production rates, which contributed to price stability. As farmers adopted a wait-and-see strategy amid economic downturns and unpredictable weather, the demand environment for Potassium Chloride became increasingly volatile.
The USA witnessed significant price changes, with prices dropping by 3% compared to the previous quarter. This decline can be attributed to a combination of low demand, disruptions caused by adverse weather, and uncertainties in the agricultural sector. Despite challenges, the quarter ended with Potassium Chloride Fertilizer priced at USD 392/MT DEL Illinois in the USA, reflecting the prevailing downward pricing trend in the region.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a varied pricing environment for Potassium Chloride, influenced by multiple factors. In the first half of the quarter, prices in China rose due to material shortages caused by reduced production activities stemming from adverse weather conditions. Manufacturing output fell to its lowest level in six months, contributing to a decline in factory gate prices. Despite the broader economic slowdown, demand remained moderate, particularly in northern regions where Potassium Chloride is vital for various industrial applications. This combination of limited supply and steady regional demand created a gap that supported the price increase. However, market participants faced ongoing challenges, including a contracting manufacturing sector and weakened new order activity, complicating the landscape further. In the second half of Q3 2024, Potassium Chloride prices in China declined amid consistent market demand and a cautious trading environment. Traders closely monitored India's tender, but significant transactions were lacking as producers adopted a wait-and-see approach due to uncertainties. Supply constraints persisted from reduced manufacturing activities, exacerbated by recent typhoons and the National Day holidays. While the upcoming wheat planting season supported domestic demand, challenges continued to impact pricing dynamics. China saw the most significant price changes, with a 4% decrease from the previous quarter. Despite this decline, the quarter-ending price in China stood at USD 289/MT, reflecting a mixed pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Potassium Chloride pricing in the Europe region experienced a significant decrease, with Germany witnessing the most notable price changes. In Q3 2024, Potassium Chloride prices in Germany's domestic market experienced a notable decline due to weakened purchasing activity from the downstream fertilizer industry. This drop in demand was largely attributed to adverse weather conditions, including severe heatwaves followed by heavy rainfall and tropical storms that jeopardized crop yields across Central Europe. As a result, consumers adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach to fertilizer procurement. The World Bank's fertilizer price index indicated stability in Q2 2024, following a significant 20% drop in Q1, yet prices remained 24% lower year-on-year. Despite a strong supply of Potassium Chloride, persistent manufacturing challenges from seasonal labor shortages and variable weather, coupled with low demand and mixed harvest results across the EU, contributed to a bearish market outlook. The uncertain agricultural outlook, exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions, led producers to withdraw offers, resulting in minimal sales activity. Market participants anticipated a potential pickup in demand by October, but the prevailing conditions created a complex landscape for the Potassium Chloride market. The quarter recorded a substantial -7% decrease from the previous quarter, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market.The quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride Fertilizer FOB Hamburg stood at USD 362/MT, underscoring the downward trajectory in pricing. Plant disruptions, such as the maintenance shutdown at ICL Group Ltd. in Sodom, Israel, due to war-related issues, also added to the supply constraints during the quarter.
MEA
In Q3 2024, Potassium Chloride prices in Jordan's domestic market experienced a decline due to slower consumer demand. Despite stable international potash prices, regional demand remained limited, prompting some producers to seek opportunities in higher-demand markets or withhold offerings. The Arab Potash Company reported strong financial performance, achieving consolidated operating profits in the first half of 2024, yet the market sentiment was cautious amid uncertainties surrounding the Indian potash contract settlement. Jordan’s production and export levels showed mixed results, with crude potash exports falling by 36%. The country's overall export figures reflected a decline, despite a notable increase in re-exports. Freight rates fluctuated due to congestion and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but signs of improving conditions emerged towards the end of the quarter. The decline in fertilizer demand was exacerbated by a global surplus and reduced crop prices, leading to decreased orders for Potassium Chloride. Overall, the market remained bearish, with participants closely monitoring developments in key markets and geopolitical dynamics impacting demand. Jordan witnessed the most significant price changes, with a 6% decrease from the previous quarter. Plant shutdowns, including disruptions to key facilities, further impacted pricing dynamics in the region. Seasonal trends and correlations in price changes underscored a consistent downward trajectory for Potassium Chloride. The quarter ended with Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade priced at USD 329/MT FOB-Aqaba in Jordan.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
During Q2 2024, the Potassium Chloride market in North America demonstrated a notable upward trajectory in pricing, driven by several key factors. The primary catalysts for this price increase included heightened geopolitical tensions affecting global supply chains, such as those between Israel and Iran, and ongoing sanctions on Russia and Belarus. These geopolitical dynamics constrained the availability of feedstock Potassium Chloride, exacerbating supply-side challenges. Maintenance shutdowns at significant manufacturing plants further tightened the market. Notably, facilities like Mosaic Potash Carlsbad Inc. in the USA, as well as Nutrien Potash Cory and Nutrien Rocanville Potash in North America, underwent maintenance shutdowns, reducing production capacity and contributing to supply constraints.
Focusing on the USA, this region witnessed the most significant price changes, influenced by both domestic and international factors. The overall trend reflected a consistent and robust price increase, partly fueled by subdued demand due to adverse weather conditions, such as geomagnetic storms, which disrupted agricultural activities. However, the anticipation of higher demand for fertilizers in the latter part of the planting season added upward pressure on prices. This quarter also observed a distinct seasonal effect, with prices escalating in anticipation of heightened agricultural activities.
The price environment was decidedly positive, marked by a 1% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 425/MT for Potassium Chloride Fertilizer DEL Illinois, underscoring a sustained uptrend in the pricing landscape for the North American region.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Potassium Chloride market in the APAC region experienced a relatively stable pricing environment, influenced by several key factors. The market remained balanced with steady supply and demand dynamics, despite minor fluctuations in ocean freight rates and industrial activities. Seasonal agricultural activities contributed to consistent demand for Potassium Chloride, particularly for fertilizer applications, supporting stable prices throughout the quarter. The overall sentiment in the market was one of cautious optimism, with industry participants carefully monitoring supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions that could potentially impact market stability.
Focusing on China, the market witnessed the most significant price changes within the region. The overall trend for Potassium Chloride prices in China showed a moderate decline in the first half of the quarter, followed by stabilization in the latter half. This price behavior was largely attributed to subdued demand from downstream industries, sufficient domestic inventories, and increased availability of imports. The Chinese manufacturing sector showed signs of contraction, which also contributed to the tempered demand for Potassium Chloride. Despite these pressures, the market managed to avoid significant disruptions, with no major plant shutdowns reported during the quarter.
The quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade Ex-Qingdao was recorded at USD 305/MT, reflecting a stabilization in the market after initial declines. Overall, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in Q2 2024 was stable, with market participants maintaining a balanced outlook amidst fluctuating demand and supply conditions.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a notable increase in Potassium Chloride prices within the European region, driven by a confluence of factors. Key influences include severe weather conditions, elevated freight charges, and persistent supply constraints. The adverse weather has disrupted transportation, notably raising water levels in crucial waterways, thereby delaying shipments and exacerbating supply shortages. Concurrently, heightened freight charges due to unseasonal demand surges and capacity constraints have compounded the upward pressure on prices. Despite global potash markets experiencing downward trends, Europe's unique supply chain challenges have led to a bullish market sentiment for Potassium Chloride.
In Germany, the Potassium Chloride market has been particularly dynamic, reflecting the maximum price changes in the region. Additionally, moderate supply levels and low inventories further propelled the prices upward. Seasonal fluctuations, such as the increased demand during the planting season, also played a critical role in driving prices. The ongoing congestion in key trade routes and the resulting delays have sustained the high price trajectory.
Compared to the previous quarter, which recorded an 11% decline, the pricing trend in Q2 has been resilient with a consistent upward movement. The overall trend was positively reinforced by the key shutdowns in major potash manufacturing plants like Mosaic Potash in Belle Plaine and Nutrien Vanscoy Potash, which have influenced supply dynamics. Concluding the quarter, the price of Potassium Chloride Fertilizer FOB Hamburg in Germany stands at USD 410/MT, indicative of a favorable and robust pricing environment.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Potassium Chloride market in the MEA region has experienced an upward pricing trend, driven by multiple significant factors. Rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over potential escalation in the Middle East have introduced market uncertainties, prompting a cautious stance among buyers and suppliers. The market's bullish environment has been further influenced by increasing demand from fertilizer producers amid moderate supply constraints. Freight charges have surged due to capacity constraints and unseasonal demand increases, exacerbating logistical challenges and adding to the overall cost structure.
Focusing on Jordan, the country has witnessed the most pronounced price changes in the region. The overall trend has been positive, marked by a steady rise in Potassium Chloride prices. Seasonality has played a role, with increased procurement activities and rising raw material feedstock prices contributing to cost support. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices have surged significantly, reflecting an increase in market participation and supply chain disruptions. However, the price change from the previous quarter in 2024 recorded at -11%, indicating a previous bearish sentiment.
By the end of the quarter, the price of Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade FOB-Aqaba in Jordan stood at USD 370/MT. Overall, the pricing environment throughout Q2 2024 has been positive, driven by a combination of demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and logistical challenges. No significant plant shutdowns were reported during the quarter, ensuring a steady supply amid rising prices.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in North America during Q1 2024 has been bearish, with prices experiencing a downward trend. Weak demand from the downstream fertilizer industry and imports of cheaper goods have contributed to the decline in prices. The limited demand from the agriculture sector, as well as the destocking season and year-end holidays, have further dampened the demand for Potassium Chloride. Additionally, disruptions in the petrochemical industry caused by freezing temperatures have constrained the supply of Potassium Chloride.
In Canada, the pricing trend for Potassium Chloride has also been bearish, with prices dropping further due to weak demand from the downstream industries. The destocking season and year-end holidays have led to diminished industrial activity and decreased demand for raw materials. The manufacturing sector has experienced a contraction, with new orders declining and output decreasing. However, there have been no major supply chain constraints or port congestion observed in the region.
Overall, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in North America and Canada during Q1 2024 has been negative, with prices experiencing a downward trend. The limited demand and disruptions in the supply chain have contributed to the bearish market conditions. The latest quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride in Canada is USD 300/MT of Fertilizer Grade DEL Vancouver."
APAC
In Q1 2024, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in the APAC region was mostly negative, influenced by various factors. Weak demand from downstream industries, oversupplied markets, and decreased industrial activity during the year-end holidays contributed to the decline in prices. The businesses in the region were operating at a slower pace, resulting in limited market transactions.
China, in particular, experienced significant price changes during this quarter. The decline in demand from downstream industries, coupled with the destocking season, led to a further drop in prices. The slowdown in manufacturing operations and the temporary suspension of some businesses exacerbated the decline in demand. Overall, the pricing trend in China was bearish, with moderate to high supply levels.
In terms of overall trends and seasonality, the market witnessed decreased purchasing activity and limited demand. The businesses were mainly procuring on a need basis, and domestic inventories were sufficient to meet current regional demand. The market sentiments remained cautious, and the overall demand outlook was sluggish. Looking at the price changes from the same quarter last year, there was a notable decrease in prices. However, the percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was not provided in the data. Additionally, there was no information available regarding the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter.
As for the latest quarter-ending price, Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade Ex-Qingdao in China was recorded at USD 330/MT. This price reflects the bearish pricing environment and the decline in demand during the quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2024, Potassium Chloride prices in the European region experienced a downward trend due to weak consumer demand and adverse weather conditions. The market sentiment was bearish, with limited market activities and no supply-related issues reported. The decline in demand from significant downstream industries, particularly in agriculture, contributed to the overall low demand for Potassium Chloride. Farmers across the European Union staged protests highlighting concerns such as rising costs, taxation, bureaucratic obstacles, stringent environmental regulations, and competition from lower-priced imports.
In Belgium, Potassium Chloride prices also dropped due to weak consumer demand and persistent wet weather, which dampened demand in the agriculture sector. The market situation was bearish, with moderate supply and limited market activities. The decline in demand led to a bearish trend in the offtake market, and purchases of the product were mainly driven by immediate requirements. Domestic inventories were ample to meet current regional demand.
Overall, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in Q1 2024 was negative, with prices decreasing by approximately 4-5% compared to the previous quarter. The market fundamentals remained balanced, with limited inventories and the anticipated improvement in demand from buyers and fertilizer industries. However, the market was impacted by factors such as low orders from importers and the potential increase in raw material feedstock Potash prices. The quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride FOB Antwerp in Belgium was USD 420/MT.
MEA
The first quarter of 2024 has been challenging for Potassium Chloride in the MEA region, with market prices experiencing a downward trend. Weak demand from downstream industries, particularly in India and China, has been a significant factor influencing the market. Inquiries from fertilizer manufacturers and related industries have slowed down, leading to eased procurement of the product. Additionally, the conflict between Israel and Palestine has reduced exports from Israel, increasing reliance on Jordan for supplies.
In Jordan specifically, the pricing trend for Potassium Chloride has been bearish. Prices decreased by USD 15/MT (-3.5%) in February, followed by a further decrease of USD 25/MT (-5.3%) in December. The decline in demand from fertilizer producers has contributed to this bearish trend. Despite ample inventories and steady domestic manufacturing output, the offtake market has seen a downturn.
Looking at the overall trend, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in Q1 2024 has been negative. The market has been characterized by low demand, limited procurement activities, and decreased trading activities. However, there is some anticipation of improved demand and an increase in prices once the spring season commences. The latest quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade FOB-Aqaba in Jordan is USD 375/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American market for Potassium Chloride experienced a mixed trend. Initially, there was a marginal decrease in prices due to slowing demand from downstream industries, leading to built-up inventories. Additionally, industrial activities contracted, as indicated by a decline in the manufacturing PMI. However, there was also firm demand from the fertilizer industry, supported by steady purchasing activity and improved market sentiments.
In Canada, the prices of Potassium Chloride increased marginally during this quarter. This was driven by strong demand from the downstream fertilizer industry and an improvement in industrial activities. However, concerns were raised about a possible supply crunch due to a labor strike at St. Lawrence Seaway, which is crucial for the Canadian fertilizer industry. During this quarter, there were no reported plant shutdowns in the market.
The price of Potassium Chloride in Canada at the end of the quarter was USD 360/MT. Overall, the market for Potassium Chloride in North America experienced a mixed trend in the fourth quarter of 2023, with factors such as demand from downstream industries, industrial activities, and supply concerns influencing prices.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a positive market sentiment for Potassium Chloride in the APAC region. The demand for Potassium Chloride increased due to improved inquiries from downstream fertilizer manufacturing and other related industries. This led to increased procurement and higher domestic consumption of the product. On the supply side, the inventories of Potassium Chloride remained moderate, and no major constraints were observed in the supply chain. However, the cost support from the upstream Potassium Carbonate was weak during this period. China, being a major player in the region, experienced a bullish market situation for Potassium Chloride. The demand from the downstream industries in China improved, driven by increased consumption and changes in crop prices, weather patterns, and seasonal variations. Despite a drop in China's manufacturing PMI and deflationary pressures, the demand for Potassium Chloride remained firm. The price of Potassium Chloride in China at the end of the fourth quarter was USD 420/MT Ex-Qingdao. This represents a 1% decrease compared to the previous quarter, a 17% increase compared to the same quarter last year, and a 2% decrease when comparing the first and second half of the quarter. Overall, the market for Potassium Chloride in China experienced positive growth and demand, despite economic challenges and deflationary pressures.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023 (Q4), the market for Potassium Chloride in Europe experienced mixed conditions. The demand for Potassium Chloride in the region was strong, driven by improved inquiries from fertilizer manufacturers and steady imports from overseas markets. The resumption of fertilizer trade between Russia, the USA, and Europe had a positive impact on the market outlook. However, the Eurozone's manufacturing production fell, resulting in a bearish market situation. The supply of Potassium Chloride was moderate, with increased import rates from the fertilizer industry and higher offtakes from the consumer market. Production costs increased due to higher gas prices and costlier raw materials. In Belgium, the prices of Potassium Chloride rose in Q4 as demand conditions improved. Belgium and the Netherlands were the top two fertilizer suppliers to Germany during the first half of 2023. The pricing trend in Belgium showed a 2.9% increase in October, followed by a 3.7% increase in November. However, prices decreased by 2.7% in December. Comparing the current quarter to the same quarter last year, there was a 169% increase in prices. The price change from the previous quarter was -5%, indicating a slight decrease. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a -7% change. The quarter-ending price of Potassium Chloride Fertilizer FOB Antwerp in Belgium was USD 500/MT.
Middle East Asia
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Potassium Chloride market in the Middle East Asian region faced several challenges. The market experienced a bearish trend due to weak demand from the downstream fertilizer industry. This resulted in a decline in prices as consumer inquiries and procurement of the product slowed down. Also, there was moderate to high supply in the market, with manufacturers operating at a steady pace and sufficient material availability. However, the market was affected by high inventories of Potassium Chloride, leading to reduced purchasing activity. In October, the prices rose due to positive demand from downstream industries, particularly fertilizer manufacturing. However, in November, the prices decreased slightly as demand weakened and inquiries from overseas markets decreased. The domestic market in Jordan experienced a bearish trend with low demand. In terms of pricing trends, the price of Potassium Chloride in Jordan in Q4 2023 was USD 445/MT FOB-Aqaba. This represents a 5% decrease from the previous quarter and a 137% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, there was a 7% decrease in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. Overall, the Potassium Chloride market in the MEA region faced challenges in Q4 2023, with weak demand and high inventories impacting prices.
