For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the prices of Potassium Chloride in the North America region declined due to a notable slowdown in consumer demand. Despite moderate overall demand, driven by consistent domestic needs and ongoing orders from European and Asian importers, the market primarily saw interest from smaller buyers.
This cautious approach stemmed from broader uncertainties in the agricultural sector, particularly influenced by fluctuating weather patterns that hindered crop growth and made fertilizer forecasting challenging for farmers. While the supply of domestically produced Potassium Chloride remained steady, adverse weather events, including hurricanes and heavy windstorms, disrupted agricultural operations, prompting farmers to delay purchases. The market was characterized by low to moderate supply levels, with manufacturing facilities operating efficiently despite challenges. Inventory levels remained stable, buoyed by steady production rates, which contributed to price stability. As farmers adopted a wait-and-see strategy amid economic downturns and unpredictable weather, the demand environment for Potassium Chloride became increasingly volatile.
The USA witnessed significant price changes, with prices dropping by 3% compared to the previous quarter. This decline can be attributed to a combination of low demand, disruptions caused by adverse weather, and uncertainties in the agricultural sector. Despite challenges, the quarter ended with Potassium Chloride Fertilizer priced at USD 392/MT DEL Illinois in the USA, reflecting the prevailing downward pricing trend in the region.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a varied pricing environment for Potassium Chloride, influenced by multiple factors. In the first half of the quarter, prices in China rose due to material shortages caused by reduced production activities stemming from adverse weather conditions. Manufacturing output fell to its lowest level in six months, contributing to a decline in factory gate prices. Despite the broader economic slowdown, demand remained moderate, particularly in northern regions where Potassium Chloride is vital for various industrial applications. This combination of limited supply and steady regional demand created a gap that supported the price increase. However, market participants faced ongoing challenges, including a contracting manufacturing sector and weakened new order activity, complicating the landscape further. In the second half of Q3 2024, Potassium Chloride prices in China declined amid consistent market demand and a cautious trading environment. Traders closely monitored India's tender, but significant transactions were lacking as producers adopted a wait-and-see approach due to uncertainties. Supply constraints persisted from reduced manufacturing activities, exacerbated by recent typhoons and the National Day holidays. While the upcoming wheat planting season supported domestic demand, challenges continued to impact pricing dynamics. China saw the most significant price changes, with a 4% decrease from the previous quarter. Despite this decline, the quarter-ending price in China stood at USD 289/MT, reflecting a mixed pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Potassium Chloride pricing in the Europe region experienced a significant decrease, with Germany witnessing the most notable price changes. In Q3 2024, Potassium Chloride prices in Germany's domestic market experienced a notable decline due to weakened purchasing activity from the downstream fertilizer industry. This drop in demand was largely attributed to adverse weather conditions, including severe heatwaves followed by heavy rainfall and tropical storms that jeopardized crop yields across Central Europe. As a result, consumers adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach to fertilizer procurement. The World Bank's fertilizer price index indicated stability in Q2 2024, following a significant 20% drop in Q1, yet prices remained 24% lower year-on-year. Despite a strong supply of Potassium Chloride, persistent manufacturing challenges from seasonal labor shortages and variable weather, coupled with low demand and mixed harvest results across the EU, contributed to a bearish market outlook. The uncertain agricultural outlook, exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions, led producers to withdraw offers, resulting in minimal sales activity. Market participants anticipated a potential pickup in demand by October, but the prevailing conditions created a complex landscape for the Potassium Chloride market. The quarter recorded a substantial -7% decrease from the previous quarter, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market.The quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride Fertilizer FOB Hamburg stood at USD 362/MT, underscoring the downward trajectory in pricing. Plant disruptions, such as the maintenance shutdown at ICL Group Ltd. in Sodom, Israel, due to war-related issues, also added to the supply constraints during the quarter.
MEA
In Q3 2024, Potassium Chloride prices in Jordan's domestic market experienced a decline due to slower consumer demand. Despite stable international potash prices, regional demand remained limited, prompting some producers to seek opportunities in higher-demand markets or withhold offerings. The Arab Potash Company reported strong financial performance, achieving consolidated operating profits in the first half of 2024, yet the market sentiment was cautious amid uncertainties surrounding the Indian potash contract settlement. Jordan’s production and export levels showed mixed results, with crude potash exports falling by 36%. The country's overall export figures reflected a decline, despite a notable increase in re-exports. Freight rates fluctuated due to congestion and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but signs of improving conditions emerged towards the end of the quarter. The decline in fertilizer demand was exacerbated by a global surplus and reduced crop prices, leading to decreased orders for Potassium Chloride. Overall, the market remained bearish, with participants closely monitoring developments in key markets and geopolitical dynamics impacting demand. Jordan witnessed the most significant price changes, with a 6% decrease from the previous quarter. Plant shutdowns, including disruptions to key facilities, further impacted pricing dynamics in the region. Seasonal trends and correlations in price changes underscored a consistent downward trajectory for Potassium Chloride. The quarter ended with Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade priced at USD 329/MT FOB-Aqaba in Jordan.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
During Q2 2024, the Potassium Chloride market in North America demonstrated a notable upward trajectory in pricing, driven by several key factors. The primary catalysts for this price increase included heightened geopolitical tensions affecting global supply chains, such as those between Israel and Iran, and ongoing sanctions on Russia and Belarus. These geopolitical dynamics constrained the availability of feedstock Potassium Chloride, exacerbating supply-side challenges. Maintenance shutdowns at significant manufacturing plants further tightened the market. Notably, facilities like Mosaic Potash Carlsbad Inc. in the USA, as well as Nutrien Potash Cory and Nutrien Rocanville Potash in North America, underwent maintenance shutdowns, reducing production capacity and contributing to supply constraints.
Focusing on the USA, this region witnessed the most significant price changes, influenced by both domestic and international factors. The overall trend reflected a consistent and robust price increase, partly fueled by subdued demand due to adverse weather conditions, such as geomagnetic storms, which disrupted agricultural activities. However, the anticipation of higher demand for fertilizers in the latter part of the planting season added upward pressure on prices. This quarter also observed a distinct seasonal effect, with prices escalating in anticipation of heightened agricultural activities.
The price environment was decidedly positive, marked by a 1% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 425/MT for Potassium Chloride Fertilizer DEL Illinois, underscoring a sustained uptrend in the pricing landscape for the North American region.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Potassium Chloride market in the APAC region experienced a relatively stable pricing environment, influenced by several key factors. The market remained balanced with steady supply and demand dynamics, despite minor fluctuations in ocean freight rates and industrial activities. Seasonal agricultural activities contributed to consistent demand for Potassium Chloride, particularly for fertilizer applications, supporting stable prices throughout the quarter. The overall sentiment in the market was one of cautious optimism, with industry participants carefully monitoring supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions that could potentially impact market stability.
Focusing on China, the market witnessed the most significant price changes within the region. The overall trend for Potassium Chloride prices in China showed a moderate decline in the first half of the quarter, followed by stabilization in the latter half. This price behavior was largely attributed to subdued demand from downstream industries, sufficient domestic inventories, and increased availability of imports. The Chinese manufacturing sector showed signs of contraction, which also contributed to the tempered demand for Potassium Chloride. Despite these pressures, the market managed to avoid significant disruptions, with no major plant shutdowns reported during the quarter.
The quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade Ex-Qingdao was recorded at USD 305/MT, reflecting a stabilization in the market after initial declines. Overall, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in Q2 2024 was stable, with market participants maintaining a balanced outlook amidst fluctuating demand and supply conditions.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a notable increase in Potassium Chloride prices within the European region, driven by a confluence of factors. Key influences include severe weather conditions, elevated freight charges, and persistent supply constraints. The adverse weather has disrupted transportation, notably raising water levels in crucial waterways, thereby delaying shipments and exacerbating supply shortages. Concurrently, heightened freight charges due to unseasonal demand surges and capacity constraints have compounded the upward pressure on prices. Despite global potash markets experiencing downward trends, Europe's unique supply chain challenges have led to a bullish market sentiment for Potassium Chloride.
In Germany, the Potassium Chloride market has been particularly dynamic, reflecting the maximum price changes in the region. Additionally, moderate supply levels and low inventories further propelled the prices upward. Seasonal fluctuations, such as the increased demand during the planting season, also played a critical role in driving prices. The ongoing congestion in key trade routes and the resulting delays have sustained the high price trajectory.
Compared to the previous quarter, which recorded an 11% decline, the pricing trend in Q2 has been resilient with a consistent upward movement. The overall trend was positively reinforced by the key shutdowns in major potash manufacturing plants like Mosaic Potash in Belle Plaine and Nutrien Vanscoy Potash, which have influenced supply dynamics. Concluding the quarter, the price of Potassium Chloride Fertilizer FOB Hamburg in Germany stands at USD 410/MT, indicative of a favorable and robust pricing environment.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Potassium Chloride market in the MEA region has experienced an upward pricing trend, driven by multiple significant factors. Rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over potential escalation in the Middle East have introduced market uncertainties, prompting a cautious stance among buyers and suppliers. The market's bullish environment has been further influenced by increasing demand from fertilizer producers amid moderate supply constraints. Freight charges have surged due to capacity constraints and unseasonal demand increases, exacerbating logistical challenges and adding to the overall cost structure.
Focusing on Jordan, the country has witnessed the most pronounced price changes in the region. The overall trend has been positive, marked by a steady rise in Potassium Chloride prices. Seasonality has played a role, with increased procurement activities and rising raw material feedstock prices contributing to cost support. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices have surged significantly, reflecting an increase in market participation and supply chain disruptions. However, the price change from the previous quarter in 2024 recorded at -11%, indicating a previous bearish sentiment.
By the end of the quarter, the price of Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade FOB-Aqaba in Jordan stood at USD 370/MT. Overall, the pricing environment throughout Q2 2024 has been positive, driven by a combination of demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and logistical challenges. No significant plant shutdowns were reported during the quarter, ensuring a steady supply amid rising prices.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in North America during Q1 2024 has been bearish, with prices experiencing a downward trend. Weak demand from the downstream fertilizer industry and imports of cheaper goods have contributed to the decline in prices. The limited demand from the agriculture sector, as well as the destocking season and year-end holidays, have further dampened the demand for Potassium Chloride. Additionally, disruptions in the petrochemical industry caused by freezing temperatures have constrained the supply of Potassium Chloride.
In Canada, the pricing trend for Potassium Chloride has also been bearish, with prices dropping further due to weak demand from the downstream industries. The destocking season and year-end holidays have led to diminished industrial activity and decreased demand for raw materials. The manufacturing sector has experienced a contraction, with new orders declining and output decreasing. However, there have been no major supply chain constraints or port congestion observed in the region.
Overall, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in North America and Canada during Q1 2024 has been negative, with prices experiencing a downward trend. The limited demand and disruptions in the supply chain have contributed to the bearish market conditions. The latest quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride in Canada is USD 300/MT of Fertilizer Grade DEL Vancouver."
APAC
In Q1 2024, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in the APAC region was mostly negative, influenced by various factors. Weak demand from downstream industries, oversupplied markets, and decreased industrial activity during the year-end holidays contributed to the decline in prices. The businesses in the region were operating at a slower pace, resulting in limited market transactions.
China, in particular, experienced significant price changes during this quarter. The decline in demand from downstream industries, coupled with the destocking season, led to a further drop in prices. The slowdown in manufacturing operations and the temporary suspension of some businesses exacerbated the decline in demand. Overall, the pricing trend in China was bearish, with moderate to high supply levels.
In terms of overall trends and seasonality, the market witnessed decreased purchasing activity and limited demand. The businesses were mainly procuring on a need basis, and domestic inventories were sufficient to meet current regional demand. The market sentiments remained cautious, and the overall demand outlook was sluggish. Looking at the price changes from the same quarter last year, there was a notable decrease in prices. However, the percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was not provided in the data. Additionally, there was no information available regarding the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter.
As for the latest quarter-ending price, Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade Ex-Qingdao in China was recorded at USD 330/MT. This price reflects the bearish pricing environment and the decline in demand during the quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2024, Potassium Chloride prices in the European region experienced a downward trend due to weak consumer demand and adverse weather conditions. The market sentiment was bearish, with limited market activities and no supply-related issues reported. The decline in demand from significant downstream industries, particularly in agriculture, contributed to the overall low demand for Potassium Chloride. Farmers across the European Union staged protests highlighting concerns such as rising costs, taxation, bureaucratic obstacles, stringent environmental regulations, and competition from lower-priced imports.
In Belgium, Potassium Chloride prices also dropped due to weak consumer demand and persistent wet weather, which dampened demand in the agriculture sector. The market situation was bearish, with moderate supply and limited market activities. The decline in demand led to a bearish trend in the offtake market, and purchases of the product were mainly driven by immediate requirements. Domestic inventories were ample to meet current regional demand.
Overall, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in Q1 2024 was negative, with prices decreasing by approximately 4-5% compared to the previous quarter. The market fundamentals remained balanced, with limited inventories and the anticipated improvement in demand from buyers and fertilizer industries. However, the market was impacted by factors such as low orders from importers and the potential increase in raw material feedstock Potash prices. The quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride FOB Antwerp in Belgium was USD 420/MT.
MEA
The first quarter of 2024 has been challenging for Potassium Chloride in the MEA region, with market prices experiencing a downward trend. Weak demand from downstream industries, particularly in India and China, has been a significant factor influencing the market. Inquiries from fertilizer manufacturers and related industries have slowed down, leading to eased procurement of the product. Additionally, the conflict between Israel and Palestine has reduced exports from Israel, increasing reliance on Jordan for supplies.
In Jordan specifically, the pricing trend for Potassium Chloride has been bearish. Prices decreased by USD 15/MT (-3.5%) in February, followed by a further decrease of USD 25/MT (-5.3%) in December. The decline in demand from fertilizer producers has contributed to this bearish trend. Despite ample inventories and steady domestic manufacturing output, the offtake market has seen a downturn.
Looking at the overall trend, the pricing environment for Potassium Chloride in Q1 2024 has been negative. The market has been characterized by low demand, limited procurement activities, and decreased trading activities. However, there is some anticipation of improved demand and an increase in prices once the spring season commences. The latest quarter-ending price for Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade FOB-Aqaba in Jordan is USD 375/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American market for Potassium Chloride experienced a mixed trend. Initially, there was a marginal decrease in prices due to slowing demand from downstream industries, leading to built-up inventories. Additionally, industrial activities contracted, as indicated by a decline in the manufacturing PMI. However, there was also firm demand from the fertilizer industry, supported by steady purchasing activity and improved market sentiments.
In Canada, the prices of Potassium Chloride increased marginally during this quarter. This was driven by strong demand from the downstream fertilizer industry and an improvement in industrial activities. However, concerns were raised about a possible supply crunch due to a labor strike at St. Lawrence Seaway, which is crucial for the Canadian fertilizer industry. During this quarter, there were no reported plant shutdowns in the market.
The price of Potassium Chloride in Canada at the end of the quarter was USD 360/MT. Overall, the market for Potassium Chloride in North America experienced a mixed trend in the fourth quarter of 2023, with factors such as demand from downstream industries, industrial activities, and supply concerns influencing prices.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a positive market sentiment for Potassium Chloride in the APAC region. The demand for Potassium Chloride increased due to improved inquiries from downstream fertilizer manufacturing and other related industries. This led to increased procurement and higher domestic consumption of the product. On the supply side, the inventories of Potassium Chloride remained moderate, and no major constraints were observed in the supply chain. However, the cost support from the upstream Potassium Carbonate was weak during this period. China, being a major player in the region, experienced a bullish market situation for Potassium Chloride. The demand from the downstream industries in China improved, driven by increased consumption and changes in crop prices, weather patterns, and seasonal variations. Despite a drop in China's manufacturing PMI and deflationary pressures, the demand for Potassium Chloride remained firm. The price of Potassium Chloride in China at the end of the fourth quarter was USD 420/MT Ex-Qingdao. This represents a 1% decrease compared to the previous quarter, a 17% increase compared to the same quarter last year, and a 2% decrease when comparing the first and second half of the quarter. Overall, the market for Potassium Chloride in China experienced positive growth and demand, despite economic challenges and deflationary pressures.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023 (Q4), the market for Potassium Chloride in Europe experienced mixed conditions. The demand for Potassium Chloride in the region was strong, driven by improved inquiries from fertilizer manufacturers and steady imports from overseas markets. The resumption of fertilizer trade between Russia, the USA, and Europe had a positive impact on the market outlook. However, the Eurozone's manufacturing production fell, resulting in a bearish market situation. The supply of Potassium Chloride was moderate, with increased import rates from the fertilizer industry and higher offtakes from the consumer market. Production costs increased due to higher gas prices and costlier raw materials. In Belgium, the prices of Potassium Chloride rose in Q4 as demand conditions improved. Belgium and the Netherlands were the top two fertilizer suppliers to Germany during the first half of 2023. The pricing trend in Belgium showed a 2.9% increase in October, followed by a 3.7% increase in November. However, prices decreased by 2.7% in December. Comparing the current quarter to the same quarter last year, there was a 169% increase in prices. The price change from the previous quarter was -5%, indicating a slight decrease. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a -7% change. The quarter-ending price of Potassium Chloride Fertilizer FOB Antwerp in Belgium was USD 500/MT.
Middle East Asia
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Potassium Chloride market in the Middle East Asian region faced several challenges. The market experienced a bearish trend due to weak demand from the downstream fertilizer industry. This resulted in a decline in prices as consumer inquiries and procurement of the product slowed down. Also, there was moderate to high supply in the market, with manufacturers operating at a steady pace and sufficient material availability. However, the market was affected by high inventories of Potassium Chloride, leading to reduced purchasing activity. In October, the prices rose due to positive demand from downstream industries, particularly fertilizer manufacturing. However, in November, the prices decreased slightly as demand weakened and inquiries from overseas markets decreased. The domestic market in Jordan experienced a bearish trend with low demand. In terms of pricing trends, the price of Potassium Chloride in Jordan in Q4 2023 was USD 445/MT FOB-Aqaba. This represents a 5% decrease from the previous quarter and a 137% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, there was a 7% decrease in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. Overall, the Potassium Chloride market in the MEA region faced challenges in Q4 2023, with weak demand and high inventories impacting prices.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the third quarter of 2023, the Potassium Chloride market in the North American region demonstrated mixed sentiments. The prices fell further in the domestic market of the United States in July, owing to decreased demand from the downstream fertilizer sector. According to market players, there was enough material on the domestic market. Although the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.0 in July 2023 from 46.3 in June, it nonetheless pointed to the manufacturing sector's consecutive monthly decreases, as new orders fell once again as domestic and global demand remained sluggish. Furthermore, with reduced demand, imports of the commodity have decreased, while sanctions against Russia and Belarus are also affecting the product's market fundamentals. In the next two months, the prices showcased an inclining trend as the demand conditions improved in the region. Furthermore, the cost support from the upstream Potassium Carbonate market was also firm in this period. Overall, the market transactions caught pace and increased trading activities were observed. As of September 2023, the prices of Potassium Chloride fertilizer grade in the USA were assessed at USD 445 per tonne.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2023, the Potassium Chloride market in the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated mixed sentiments. In the first month, the prices dropped owing to poor demand from the downstream fertilizer manufacturing industries as built-up inventories were reported in the domestic market. The official NBS manufacturing PMI increased marginally in July to 49.3 from 49.0 in June, although it indicated a month-on-month dip in industrial activity. Potassium Chloride prices surged in China's domestic market in August and September due to increased demand from downstream sectors. Consumer queries from downstream fertilizer manufacturers and other associated businesses strengthened this month, and higher product purchase was recorded. On the supply side, domestic producers were working at a faster rate to keep inventory levels in the region stable. The cost support from upstream Potassium Carbonate was limited, albeit prices improved slightly in the past week. As of September 2023, the prices of Potassium Chloride fertilizer grade in China were assessed at USD 425 per tonne.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2023, the Potassium Chloride market in the European region demonstrated mixed sentiments. Potassium chloride prices fell in the Belgian domestic market in July due to slow demand from the downstream fertilizer sector. Furthermore, market transactions were reported to be delayed, indicating an imbalance in supply and demand. In July 2023, the eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 42,7 from 43.4 the previous month, indicating a year of continuous contractions as increasing borrowing rates from the European Central Bank (ECB) continued to have a significant influence. As a result, the Potassium Chloride market suffered due to increasing inflation, rising interest rates, and deteriorating business sentiments. However, in the next two months, the prices rebounded amid improvement in the demand conditions and positive cost support from the upstream raw materials. Furthermore, production costs have risen as a result of increasing gas prices and more expensive raw materials. Furthermore, Belgium and the Netherlands were the top two fertilizer suppliers to Germany in the first six months of 2023. Belgium sent $216 million in fertilizer to Germany, while the Netherlands exported 475,000 tons for $190 million. As of September 2023, the prices of Potassium Chloride fertilizer grade in Belgium were assessed at USD 525 per tonne.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Potassium Chloride experienced a bearish trend during the second quarter of 2023. In Canada, the decline was driven by weak market sentiments in the international market and the presence of abundant supplies. Russian and Belarussian discounts to Asian, African, and South American countries have significantly reduced the prices in the global markets. The price easing partly reflects weak demand as farmers cut back fertilizer field applications due to affordability and availability issues. Meanwhile, cautious buying behavior was observed due to slow demand from domestic downstream industries. Supplies were sufficiently available to cater to the demand from downstream industries like pharmaceuticals, oil, and gas amid declined offtakes from downstream fertilizer producers. Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in June of 2023 from 49 in the previous month marking the third consecutive month of contraction since early in the year, as high borrowing costs continue to hamper economic activity, which has resulted in a bearish trend across the Americas and Europe. Prices of Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade FOB Vancouver were settled at USD 410/MT in the month of June 2023.
APAC
Potassium Chloride experienced a mixed trend during the second quarter of 2023. In China, the prices declined for the entire quarter owing to weaker demand from the downstream fertilizer manufacturing industries. As per the market participants, sufficient material availability was present in the region, amid which consumer inquiries slowed down. Cheap Russian imports also moderated the pricing of Potassium Chloride in the Chinese domestic market. In Indian markets, the prices remained floating throughout the second quarter of 2023 due to reliance on imports and freight charges between Russia and India. In June 2023, imports from India fell by 17.1 % compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching 53.10 billion dollars due to weak domestic demand. Researchers have assessed that a bullish trend is possible in Q3 as the Rabi season improves demand for potash fertilizers. In China, the overall fertilizer industry is observing a slowdown in the eurozone amid deteriorated business sentiments and consumers' reluctance for newer purchases. Overall, the supply chain operations were smooth, and the vendor's performance remained stable. Prices of Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade Ex Qingdao were settled at USD 400/MT in the month of June 2023.
Europe
Potassium Chloride experienced a bearish trend during the second quarter of 2023. In the German market, the prices of Potassium Chloride dropped in the domestic market owing to sluggish demand from the downstream fertilizer industry. As its GDP declined in each of the last two quarters, the eurozone now finds itself in a technical recession. Russian and Belarussian discounts to Asian, African, and South American countries have significantly reduced the prices in the issues of the global market, which is making European produce uncompetitive. In June 2023, Germany's inflation rate on an annual basis increased to 6.4 %, up from 6.1 % in May 2023, and this rise is broadly due to higher energy prices. Consequently, amid high inflation, rising interest rates, and deteriorated business sentiments, the overall Potassium Chloride consumption has remained suppressed. There was an abundant supply of Potassium Chloride available in the domestic market amid slower offtakes from the consumer market. In terms of production, the prices of feedstock Potassium Carbonate are on a continuous decline amid bleak demand, and this month, the prices dropped by 2.1% in Europe. Overall, the supply chain operations were smooth, and no major supply-related issues were observed in the region. Prices of Potassium Chloride Fertilizer Grade FOB Antwerp were settled at USD 535/MT in the month of June 2023.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The Potassium Chloride movement remained bearish throughout quarter 1 of 2023. Initially, the feedstock potash prices rose due to the stressed availability of supplies. Then in the mid-quarter, Potash prices fell amid increased sanctions on Russia and Belarus and increased inventory levels due to plunged exports as importers declined orders, which reduced the cost support. While the consumption rates of downstream fertilizer product MOP remained sluggish in the agriculture sector during Q1, and the buyers were consciously making purchases due to high inflation and increased interest rates by Federal Reserve. At the end of the quarter, Potassium Chloride prices in the USA hovered at USD 520/MT.
Asia
The Potassium chloride price movement shifted sentiments during Q1 of 2023. Initially, the cost pressure was firm as the feedstock raw material Potash costs increased till the mid-quarter. During the mid-quarter, the price trend showcased mixed sentiments as China imported an excess quantity of the product amid increased sanctions on Belarus. However, due to no contract settlement from the regional importers, China decreased their quotations at the end of Q1 to improve product orders from importers. Simultaneously, the Potassium Carbonate market was weak amid low demand and transaction rates. Conclusively, at the end of the quarter, Potassium Chloride prices in China witnessed USD 485/MT.
Europe
During the 1st quarter of 2023, the KCl price movement showcased bearish sentiments, and prices fell consistently in the European region due to declined orders from downstream industries. Simultaneously, the feedstock Potash prices fell consistently throughout the quarter amid weak demand and increased inventory levels. Simultaneously the increased sanctions on Belarus and declined orders further plunged the feedstock prices. The inquiries were depressed from the MOP producers due to depressed offtakes from the agriculture sector amid a fall in the input costs, which reduced the overall product prices during Q1. At the end of the quarter, the Potassium Chloride prices in Germany hovered at USD 585/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The prices of Potassium Chloride fell in the North American market during the fourth quarter of 2022, with costs ranging at USD 615/ton DEL Illinois during December, as noted by the traders and the suppliers. In recent years, the demand for potassium chloride in downstream industries like adhesives and sealants has generally decreased. Three sole reasons behind the sharp drop in prices: build-up of port stockpiles, a lackluster demand from the downstream fertilizer market, and a decline in worldwide prices, further pushing the Potassium Chloride market downwards. Transportation prices from exporting countries like Canada and Belarus to the domestic market in the USA were unstable due to declining freight rates internationally because of improved logistics globally.
Asia
The prices of Potassium Chloride plummeted in the Asian market, with costs ranging at USD 650/ton Technical Grade CFR Qingdao in October as recorded by the ChemAnalyst Research Team during Q4 of 2022. The market sentiments in the Chinese region were impacted by the fall in detergent and fertilizer demand. As production costs declined in the local market, the price of Potassium chloride decreased in the Asian market. The demand for Potassium Chloride in the downstream sector, which was mostly driven by stringent orders, decreased marginally. The inventories were increasing with falling consumption, as reported by several market participants resulting in weak prices.
Europe
The prices of Potassium Chloride plunged during the fourth quarter of 2022 in the European market, with costs ranging at USD 715/ton Technical FOB Hamburg in November as per sourced by German region insights. A new German law mandating businesses to strengthen due diligence across their entire supply chains drew criticism from nearly all sectors of the economy that are active in international markets. The supply was high, and consumption declined in the region with the sluggish market sentiment. The European market's demand for Potassium Chloride decreased as the consumption from the fertilizer and dyestuff industries plummeted. Inventory levels were reported to be rising among the end-users and suppliers in the European market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
During the third quarter of 2022, the prices of Potassium Chloride fell in the North American market. The desolate trade environment in the regional market caused downstream procurement to decrease. The inventories surged as consumption decreased during the middle of the quarter. Supply chain issues remained a cause of concern, as shown by the American chemistry council report. Market sentiments normalized resulted towards the second half of the quarter and culminated in stable pricing dynamics. Sluggish buying sentiments and rising inflationary pressure in the USA affected the market sentiments during the quarter. Thus, as of September 2022, Potassium Chloride prices were assessed at USD 552 per MT on a FOB basis.
Asia
The prices of Potassium Chloride fell in the Asian market during the Q3 of 2022. Low market momentum resulted in a weak domestic Potassium Chloride price in India during August. The available supply continues to outpace the demand, which has been a fundamental factor in the current market in the region. The Ukrainian crisis has exacerbated the already limited fertilizer supply situation and has triggered the export-import restrictions that compounded shortage concerns in the regional market during the period. The prices were hovering at USD 666/ton Potassium Chloride Fertiliser Grade in China during July. The inventories of Potassium Chloride surged in the market with the traders and the suppliers during the period with increasing consumption of the product in the market.
Europe
The prices of Potassium Chloride fell in the European market during the third quarter of 2022. The demand for Potassium Chloride was de-escalated in the German and other European markets. This caused the rising of inventories in the market as consumption fell. Supply dynamics have been weighing on the available demand. The war between Ukraine and Russia and ongoing economic crises have caused a deep impact on the market trading and buying sentiments during the period. The pan-European prices for Potassium Chloride declined during the quarter. Falling utility costs, bullish energy, and logistics constraints further affected the Potassium Chloride market sentiments. The prices hovered at USD 561/ton Potassium Chloride Fertiliser FOB Hamburg during July.
For the Quarter Ending in June 2022
North America
North American market saw a price rise of Potassium Chloride during Q2, 2022 with costs ranging at USD 605/ton Potassium Chloride Technical DEL Illinois during May in the USA with a quarterly escalation of 12.8% as per recorded by Chem Analyst pricing team data. The consumers rigidly demanded the downstream sector procurement, and the overall inventory was primarily low, within the market widening its prices. With the increased demand for downstream Potassium Carbonate, the prices of upstream feedstock Muriate of Potash surged, putting cost pressure on the product within the regional market. The varying global freight charges due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine were one of the primary reasons for the prices to surge.
Asia
The prices of Potassium Chloride surged in the Asian market during the second quarter of 2022, and prices were hovering around INR 50025.00/ton with the quarterly escalation of 2.4% for Technical Grade Ex-Ahmedabad in India during May, recorded by Chem Analyst pricing team data. Due to limited and tight supply, Pottasium Chloride prices continued to increase in the Chinese market. With support from the international potash fertilizer market, it is unlikely that the potassium market will fall. Overall, the downstream market for Potassium Chloride rose slightly, and the downstream demand for the product was good.
Europe
Potassium Chloride prices rose in the European market during Q2 2022, with costs ranging from USD 540/ton. Potassium Chloride Technical FOB Hamburg in Germany during May with a quarterly escalation of 27.4% as recorded by Chem Analyst pricing team data. Escalating imports from Poland, Brazil, Belgium, and France for the various downstream uses of the product in fertilizers and surface coating industry supported the market in an upward trend. This led to falling inventories and fewer products stockpiling with the traders and suppliers in the regional market. The demand for the product exceeded the supply, the atmosphere was hot, and the downstream purchasing was just in request.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The price of Potassium Chloride rose to USD 750/ton DEL Illinois in the USA by the end of the first quarter of 2022. Farmers were seen to be battling with fertilizer costs, while domestic demand remained high in agricultural sectors. The price change was 6.8% in Q1 as compared to Q4 of 2021 in the USA. KCl prices have gained cost support in Q1 owing to limited supply and robust demand fundamentals. Exports from Canada have also been costly to the USA, which further curtailed the margins of market participants. Demand push from the consumers has sent the prices into an upward spiral causing the prices to remain firm towards the end of Q1.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2022, the price of Potassium Chloride was assessed at USD 315/ton FOB Hamburg and increased to 2.6% in Germany as compared to prices of Q4, 2021. Belarus being the major exporter of KCl, affected the prices as Belarusian Potash export restrictions constrained the global market sentiment and ended carve-outs on existing sanctions on Belarus's export of potash. Healthy buying sentiment from the downstream market, such as personal care, pet care, and non-pesticidal agricultural chemicals, and hampered availability of raw materials resulted in surging prices. Strong market sentiments and insufficient product availability surged the prices of Potassium Chloride in the market.
Asia Pacific
The prices of Potassium Chloride rose due to increasing imports from China and India due to robust demand. In India, the prices of raw material, Potassium, increased in the quarter ending March 2022 with its increased consumption in downstream agricultural, soap, and detergent industries. Production snags jeopardized revenue and sales among the major producers of Potassium Chloride. Global scarcity and freight pressure remained to be a significant factor behind the steep rise in prices of several commodities, including KCl. Meanwhile, soaring crude oil value also remained to be a major concern for the global key players as it puts inflationary pressure on manufacturers and compelled them to revise their spot offers to sustain margin. The price change was stable at around 0.2% in India in Q1 of 2022 compared to Q4 of 2021.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Muriate of potash prices kept on rising across global market including North America during this quarter. Farmers heard battling with fertilizer cost, while domestic demand remained high from agriculture sector. Furthermore, shipments remained halted due to lower trade activities, as most of the countries resisting trade in order to control country’s food inflation. In USA, high fertilizers cost kept on putting inflationary pressure on consumers and the prices reached multiyear high value during this quarter. Thus, after witnessing an exponential surge in MOP price heard hovering around USD 775/MT during December in USA.
Asia
Muriate of potash remained firm for Asian market too during Q4 2021, on the back of high demand and depleting inventories amid halted production activities in China. Meanwhile, production cuts imposed by China coupled with export ban on several fertilizers, remained a major reason behind these surges. Potassium Chloride price in India heard hovering at a sky-high value during December, on the back of inadequate availability in the domestic market. However, as per recent stats, MOP sales was reduced from fertilizers effectively due to its soaring cost, while farmers started looking for other alternates in order to protect their margin. In addition, healthy output of Rabi season was witnessed by farmers, which has enhanced the optimism across fertilizer sector in India. Furthermore, Indian government announced hikes in their existing subsidy to protect farmers’ welfare. Potassium Chloride price stood around USD 605.2/MT during December.
Europe
European maker had to face some uncommon events, which shook dynamics of European market during Q4 2021. The major events include steep hike in natural gas prices, which increased prices of almost all the downstream derivatives prices like ammonia and also influenced non derivatives. High fertilizers cost tensed major economies including UK, Germany and Russia, and their government were trying to safeguard consumers, as food inflation started pressurising their plates. Therefore, Russia also introduces export quota on some fertilizers to safeguard countries consumers’ goodwill. Conclusively, similar to global market, Potassium Chloride price remained sky high throughout the quarter across European region.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
Offers for Potassium Chloride witnessed an upward trajectory in the third quarter of 2021 mostly throughout the North American region. The occurrence of Hurricane Ida in the US Gulf coast led to shutdowns of several manufacturing plants which resulted in a tight supply. Prices rose significantly during Q3 on the back of the strong demand from the downstream fertilizer and high production cost. Consumers feared that higher fertilizer prices will translate into higher cost of production of corn and soybeans. Potash (Dry) price in the Illionis (US) touched $600/mt in September, at its historic highs in the last few years.
Asia Pacific
In the Asia Pacific region, the prices of Potassium Chloride rose effectively during Q3 of 2021. Demand for Potassium Chloride remained strong in Q3 from the fertilizers segment in China. In the Indian market, MOP prices gained a significant value in August, supported by halted import activities from major exporting countries with high demand. European sanctions on Belarus due to human rights issues affected the overall supply as well as the contract prices of MOP in India. The price of MOP (92%) shot up from USD 359/MT to USD 466/MT within India from July to September. In addition, implementations of COVID restrictions across major ports of China exacerbated the overall price scenario across Asia.
Europe
The European market demonstrated an upward price trend of Potash in the 3rd quarter of 2021. The price of Potash was 10% higher in September compared to August. Increased natural gas prices in Europe altered the profitability of the fertilizer business in Q3. CF Industries considered the evaluation of whether an impairment charge w.r.t its business in the United Kingdom (U.K.) may be required. Two major fertilizer producers announced shutdowns at European fertilizer manufacturing units during Q3 due to high natural gas prices. A number of factors contributed to increased regional pricing and difficulty in material sourcing.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
During the second quarter of 2021, Muriate of Potash (MOP) demand in the North American region surged as the offtakes from the agricultural sector surged to cope up with the seasonal enquiries from the domestic and overseas market. Supplies witnessed a some hinderance as the US Mosaic shut its K1 and K2 mines in Esterhazy Canada and resumed the production in Colonsay (Canada) Potash mines. Whereas the Canadian potash giant Nutrien announced that it is estimated to surge the Potash production by 0.5 million tonnes in the second half of 2021 to cope up with the surging global demand and tightening supplies. Due to robust demand and tight market supplies in the North American region, Potassium Chloride prices surge to USD 476 per tonne in Q2.
Asia Pacific
The regional Potassium Chloride demand outlook reported robust growth in Q2 while prices observed a multi-fold hike as offtakes surged drastically from the agricultural sector in the Indian markets ahead of the upcoming Kharif/Monsoon crops in India. As a ripple effect, Potassium Chloride prices in the Indian market surged significantly early in Q2 with Ex-Depot Ahmedabad discussions settling at USD 280 per tonne in April, showing phenomenal gains over the levels seen in Q1. The Chinese Potash market also reported magnificent gains during the quarter due to strong demand from the fertilizer segment. Supplies were curtailed as imports from North America due tightness in the regional supply.
Europe
The regional Potash traders feared lack of market supply after the EU council announced to impose 4th round of sanctions on Belarus, the key Potash exporter. The threat of sanctions on Belarusian Potash spurred panic-buying in some European markets. Potassium Chloride prices touched fresh hikes due to global surge in the rates. However, considerable fall in shipping charges in the Atlantic region made the import cargoes more feasible in the second quarter of 2021. Demand surged in the domestic market amidst strong enquiries from the agricultural sector.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
The North American potassium Chloride market witnessed tight supplies during Q1 2021. Restocking activities were severely impacted by the freeze winter storm in the USA Gulf region. Inventories were running low on the back of surged freight charges throughout the first quarter of 2021. A leading fertilizer producer reported high Potash sales volumes due to continued strong demand in the North American and offshore markets. The sales however, faced headwinds from strengthening of thde Canadian dollar. US MOP price was assessed around USD 310-320 per tonne in March on FOB basis, showing an increase of over $15-20/mt over February levels.
Asia Pacific
Reduced cargoes from the USA amid bad weather conditions created a global supply shortage of Potassium chloride. In India, key fertilizers manufacturers hiked the prices steeply ahead of the upcoming ‘kharif season’. Overall, the region observed robust demand due to tight supplies which struggled to keep pace as agricultural activities ramped up after the vaccine rollout. The FOB Shanghai prices for April deliveries were surged to USD 400/MT.
Europe
MOP supplies in Europe were stable during the first quarter, as plant operations were reported sluggish throughout the quarter due to the extreme weather conditions and suppressed agricultural output. Around 3.2 MTPA capacity addition of Potassium Chloride capacity is estimated to come onstream in the upcoming quarter that raised the buyer’s sentiments. Demand remained largely suppressed as the offtakes from the agricultural market declined due to unsuitable cold weather. Some stocks were redirected to United States due to stronger demand.
For the Quarter Ending December 2020
North America
North America being of the biggest producers of potassium chloride in the world, reported robust MOP sales during the fourth quarter. Effective capacity utilization exceeded demand levels initially in the quarter forcing some US producers to function through production curtailments. The demand for Potash remained a key profit driver for many fertilizer producers across the US due to higher sales to the agricultural segment. MOP price stood around USD 140 per tonne in the US showing multiple gains in the fourth quarter. Q1 deliveries were priced higher by USD 40 per tonne amid escalating demand. Potash sales into oil and gas markets remained pressured, however many producers could manage sales by channelizing their inventories to the agricultural sector.
Asia
Consistent hike in the prices of feedstock and crop plantations across Southeast Asia provided an astonishing upward push to the prices of Potassium Chloride. Potash offers shipped to Asia dropped substantially in the final quarter of 2020 exacerbated by shortage of container availability and high ocean freight. Reduced palm oil production in several southeast Asian countries significantly hampered the potash consumption during the quarter. Lack of manpower and surplus inventories were other key concerns in some countries where operations remained impacted due to partial lockdowns.
Europe
The supply of Potassium Chloride stood stable in Q4, despite being a low period for the European fertilizer industry. Some volumes were exported to the western region. Demand slipped over Q3 amidst seasonal lull affecting the market sentiments for a larger part of the quarter. Active restocking by some US consumers kept the market sentiments high. However, players expected improvement in the price trend moving into Q1 indicating towards higher pricing on spot purchases in January 2021.
