For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, Polyvinyl alcohol prices in the USA remained range bound, holding around USD 2410-2530 per metric ton FOB Texas, despite sluggish downstream demand from the paints, coatings, and personal care sectors. Ample supply levels balanced the market, even as end-user purchasing power remained constrained.
While attempts to reduce prices had minimal impact, upstream methanol prices showed upward momentum due to anticipated increases in Methanex's monthly contract pricing. However, weak Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) demand and elevated shipping costs limited significant price hikes for the feedstock. Manufacturing activity faced pressure as key downstream industries, including construction and automotive, exhibited subdued performance. Chemical producers, such as Celanese, implemented cost-cutting measures and temporary shutdowns to align with reduced demand.
Despite stable supply conditions, the U.S. construction sector, a major consumer of Polyvinyl alcohol in coatings, remained slow, with residential activity facing ongoing challenges from high interest rates and affordability issues. While builder optimism improved slightly, reflecting regulatory relief expectations post-election, overall construction activity stayed below prior-year levels. Looking ahead, market participants express cautious optimism for a potential recovery in 2025, driven by regulatory shifts and improved sentiment in downstream industries. However, persistent supply-demand imbalances and subdued global economic conditions are likely to keep price growth moderate in the near term.
APAC
In Q4 2024, Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) prices in China rose from in October by mid-December, driven by higher feedstock Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) costs and constrained supply due to production cuts. While reduced inventories and government stimulus measures boosted market sentiment, weak downstream demand from the construction and industrial sectors, coupled with cautious purchasing behaviour, limited significant market momentum. The textile industry provided some support, with a 15.6% rise in exports and improved branded apparel turnover fuelled by seasonal demand and strong online sales. However, higher shipping costs, fluctuating upstream methanol and acetic acid prices, and subdued foreign sales added pressure. Despite these challenges, stable manufacturing rates and reduced inventory levels helped stabilize the market, though ongoing volatility and demand constraints are expected to influence price trends in early 2025. However, downstream demand for PVA in construction and industrial sectors remained weak, limiting significant price momentum. Rising costs for upstream acetic acid and methanol offered limited support to market pricing.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Polyvinyl alcohol prices in Germany showed a consistent declining trend, primarily driven by lower feedstock Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) prices, oversupply, and weak demand from the construction sector. Prices were further pressured by subdued downstream activity in applications like paints and coatings, exacerbated by a significant contraction in the construction industry. Residential construction saw persistent weakness, while commercial activity faced its sharpest decline in months, and civil engineering posted moderate reductions. Rising costs, logistical challenges, and high interest rates continued to weigh heavily on market sentiment. Manufacturing activity in Germany and the broader Eurozone remained under pressure, with the key indexes indicating ongoing contraction. Stable plant operations and steady import flows ensured sufficient supply, but oversupply and weak new orders reflected the broader economic slowdown. Business confidence showed some improvement late in the quarter, though supply-side constraints and reduced purchasing activity limited recovery. Looking ahead, the construction sector's challenges, including high material costs and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to persist, delaying significant recovery until 2025. Although higher upstream methanol prices may create upward pressure on production costs, weak downstream demand and cautious market activity are likely to keep Polyvinyl alcohol prices subdued in the short term.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Polyvinyl Alcohol market in North America experienced a significant upward trend, primarily driven by a multitude of factors influencing market prices. The market saw a notable 9% increase in prices compared to the same quarter last year, with a 6% increase from the previous quarter in 2024.
This surge can be attributed to a combination of factors such as rising feedstock costs, strong demand from downstream industries, and supply chain disruptions. In the USA, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the market exhibited an overall positive trend with a 2% increase in prices between the first and second half of the quarter.
Furthermore, the demand from the textile industry increased throughout the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Polyvinyl Alcohol in the USA stood at USD 2490/MT, reflecting the ongoing bullish sentiment in the market. These price fluctuations are indicative of a stable and increasing pricing environment, driven by various market dynamics and external factors impacting the Polyvinyl Alcohol industry in the region.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a declining trend in Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) pricing across the APAC region. This decrease was primarily influenced by weakened demand from downstream industries, particularly the textile sector. Factors such as subdued industrial output growth, reduced export orders, and uncertainties in the global market landscape contributed to the downward pressure on PVA prices. In Japan, the market experienced the most significant price changes during this period. The quarter saw a 1% decrease in prices compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting the challenging market conditions. Additionally, there was a 0.1% increase in prices from the previous quarter in 2024, indicating a prolonged period of price stability. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a negative 1% change, highlighting the consistent downward trend in PVA prices. The quarter-ending price of USD 1875 per metric ton of Polyvinyl Alcohol FOB Tokyo signified the prevailing decreased sentiment in the pricing environment in Japan.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Polyvinyl Alcohol market in Europe experienced a significant uptick in prices, driven by various factors. The market saw a notable 15% increase from the same quarter last year, indicating a positive trend. Influencing this surge were factors such as rising import costs, firm downstream demand, and stable production rates. The Netherlands, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, with a recorded 5% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. This increase was consistent with the overall trend observed in the region. Seasonal demand fluctuations and a correlation in price changes were evident, with a 2% increase noted between the first and second half of the quarter. The demand from the downstream textile industry has remained on the higher side throughout the quarter. The quarter-ending price of USD 3480/MT of Polyvinyl Alcohol CFR Rotterdam basis in the Netherlands reflected the overall bullish sentiment in the market, showcasing a favourable pricing environment with prices on the rise.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) market in North America experienced notable price fluctuations, driven by an array of influential factors. The quarter witnessed an upward trend predominately shaped by the firm terminal market consumption and heightened downstream purchasing enthusiasm. A significant shortage of stocks unable to meet the burgeoning demand further escalated PVA prices. The global manufacturing landscape showed signs of recovery, with the upward revision of the US Manufacturing PMI to 51.3 in May 2024, reflecting a modest sectoral improvement. The increased demand from diverse regions, coupled with higher input cost inflation, compelled firms to elevate selling prices. Despite these pressures, significant price hikes were not anticipated in the near term due to low feedstock PVA prices and subdued downstream demand, particularly from the textile industry.
Focusing on the USA, where price changes were most prominent, the overall market sentiment remained positive, albeit tempered by seasonal trends and economic conditions. The PVA market showed a -3% shift compared to the same quarter last year and a -1% change from the previous quarter in 2024, highlighting a relatively stable but slightly declining pricing environment. However, between the first and second halves of the quarter, prices saw a 2% uptick, emphasizing a dynamic interplay of market forces. The quarter-ending price for Polyvinyl Alcohol stood at USD 2290/MT DEL Texas, reflecting the persistent influence of supply constraints and production cost pressures. Overall, while the pricing environment exhibited stability, it was overshadowed by underlying challenges, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the PVA market in the USA.
APAC
In the beginning of Q2 2024 the prices of Polyvinyl Alcohol have shown increasing market as the market was on the stocking mode with low level of inventories in the market to meet the demand from the downstream industries. In second half of Q2 2024, the Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) market in the APAC region experienced a downward pricing trend, driven by a confluence of factors that pressured market dynamics. The quarter has been marked by average consumption levels and weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in elevated inventory levels. This lack of robust demand persisted despite continuous reductions in factory prices, aimed at stimulating market participation. The overall market sentiment remained negative, with insufficient downstream demand from industries such as textiles and home textiles exacerbating the situation.
For Japan, the region witnessing the most significant price fluctuations, the market was particularly challenging. The Manufacturing PMI indicated near stabilization, yet the eleventh consecutive month of contraction in factory activity highlighted enduring economic pressures. The sector faced shrinking output and new orders, with increased input costs driven by higher metal prices, further straining profit margins. The overall trend was influenced by seasonal transitions, including anticipated production cuts during holidays and the off-season, which dampened demand expectations.
The quarter concluded with PVA prices at USD 1873/MT FOB Tokyo, underscoring a negative pricing environment driven by weak demand and economic uncertainties. The combination of these dynamics resulted in a challenging market for Polyvinyl Alcohol in the APAC region, particularly in Japan.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) market experienced a significant upward trend driven by several key factors. The primary influences included rising import costs from major exporters like China and heightened production expenses due to increased natural gas prices. Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea exacerbated supply chain disruptions, leading to elevated freight rates and insurance premiums. These logistic hindrances, coupled with robust international demand, especially from downstream textile industries, fostered a constrained supply environment that further propelled PVA prices upwards.
Focusing on Germany, where price changes were most pronounced, the quarter reflected an ongoing positive pricing environment. Seasonal restocking activities and increased procurement ahead of the holiday season typically intensified demand, contributing to price elevation. The correlation between upstream crude oil price hikes and feedstock Vinyl Acetate Monomer costs also had a marked impact on PVA pricing.
From a trend perspective, Q2 2024 PVA prices in Germany saw a 2% rise year-over-year, aligning with broader macroeconomic recovery indicators. Compared to the preceding quarter, prices surged by 7%, underscoring the quarter's bullish momentum. A mild 1% price increase between the first and second halves of the quarter further emphasized continuous demand dynamics and supply tightness.
The quarter concluded with Polyvinyl Alcohol prices at USD 3360/MT FD Hamburg, reflecting a steadily rising market sentiment, indicative of a positive pricing environment driven by sustained demand and supply constraints.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North America region witnessed a consistent decrease in Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) prices. This decline can be attributed to several significant factors. Firstly, there was a notable decrease in demand from downstream industries, particularly the textile sector. This weakened demand exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the availability of ample inventories in the market further contributed to the declining prices.
The USA experienced the maximum price changes during this quarter. The overall trend in the US market was negative, with prices decreasing by 35% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. Moreover, there was a 3% decrease in prices between the first and second halves of the quarter.
This downward trend in prices can be attributed to the weak demand from the textile industry, which is a significant consumer of PVA. Furthermore, the availability of abundant inventories in the market and the lack of significant disruptions in the supply chain also played a role in pushing prices downwards.
The quarter-ending price for Polyvinyl Alcohol in the USA stood at USD 2190 per metric ton, delivered (DEL) Texas. This reflects the overall negative sentiment in the pricing environment for PVA in the North America region during Q1 2024.
Europe
Polyvinyl Alcohol prices in the Europe region for Q1 2024 have experienced a significant increase. The market has been influenced by various factors, leading to rising prices. In the Netherlands, the market has seen the maximum price changes. The overall trend in the market has been positive, with prices steadily increasing throughout the quarter.
One of the major reasons for the price increase is the rising demand from downstream industries, particularly the textile sector. This increased demand has resulted in higher inquiries and a need for more inventories. Additionally, production costs in Europe have remained high due to the ongoing heating season, leading to higher production costs and subsequently higher prices.
Furthermore, insufficient supply has been reported, with longer shipping routes and higher freight rates causing delays and supply shortages. This has further driven up prices in the market.
In terms of seasonality, the first half of the quarter saw a higher price increase compared to the second half. However, overall, the quarter recorded a significant price change of 13% compared to the previous quarter.
As of the end of the quarter, the price of Polyvinyl Alcohol in the Netherlands market was reported at USD 3370 per metric ton CFR Rotterdam. This marks a notable increase from the same quarter last year.
Overall, the pricing environment for Polyvinyl Alcohol in the Europe region during Q1 2024 has been positive, with increasing prices driven by higher demand, production costs, and supply shortages.
APAC
Polyvinyl Alcohol prices experienced a surge in the quarter in China due to heightened demand from the textile industry. Manufacturers maintained operational stability, with no significant disruptions in the supply chain. Although the textile sector saw a year-on-year increase in profits, overall operating revenue saw a slight decrease. International market demand declined, while low coal prices contributed to reduced production costs. Expectations of further increases in upstream crude oil prices are anticipated to drive up Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA) prices. Moreover, the prices of feedstock Vinyl Acetate Monomer rose, and Methanol contract prices surged, impacting production costs.
The manufacturing sector exhibited expansion yet demand from the textile industry remained subdued compared to pre-Covid levels. China's textile and clothing exports witnessed a decline in 2023, with the domestic fashion sector facing challenges due to weak consumption. These concerns were deliberated upon during the annual meeting of the Chinese Parliament in Beijing. Additionally, it is foreseen that Acetic Acid prices will likely rise.
Furthermore, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed an increase in February 2024 compared to January 2024, signalling expansion in the manufacturing sector. However, demand from downstream industries such as textiles remained subdued, albeit showing some improvement compared to the previous year but still falling short of pre-Covid levels. Last year, China's exports of textiles and clothing totalled €269.4 billion, marking declines of 8.1% in textiles and 2.9% in clothing compared to the strong growth observed in 2022.
