For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market experienced a significant price increase, driven by various converging factors. There was a notable surge in demand from key sectors, particularly automotive tires and industrial applications, coupled with supply chain disruptions and rising feedstock costs. The primary feedstock, Butadiene, saw a 1.88% increase compared to the previous quarter.
Additionally, suppliers were heavily engaged in long-term buildup activities to meet the current market demand, contributing to the overall rise in PBR prices. Prices increased by 12.40% from the previous quarter, reflecting the dynamic nature of the market. However, when compared to the same quarter last year, prices were still down by 37%, indicating a substantial recovery in the current market landscape.
By the end of the quarter, the price for Polybutadiene Rubber in the USA reached USD 1937/MT FOB Texas, highlighting the overall positive sentiment in the pricing environment. This increase marks a period of growth and resilience in the PBR market, showcasing its adaptability to changing conditions while maintaining stability amidst external challenges.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, the Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) pricing landscape in the APAC region has experienced a steady increase. This upward trend can be attributed to several factors influencing market dynamics, including rising costs of key feedstock Butadiene, sustained demand from various sectors, and strategic inventory management by market participants. Collectively, these elements have fostered a positive pricing environment in the region. Demand for tires in the Asian market has remained moderate, but depleting inventories and surging Butadiene costs have significantly impacted PBR prices. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most substantial price changes in the APAC region during this quarter, reflecting broader market sentiments. The market recorded a notable 15.71% increase from the same quarter last year, alongside an 8.20% rise from the previous quarter in 2024. Closing the quarter at USD 3200/MT for Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) FOB Tokyo, Japan has demonstrated a robust and positive pricing environment throughout Q3 2024, highlighting the resilience and growth of the market amid ongoing challenges.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market experienced a significant drop in prices, with France seeing the most notable declines. Several factors contributed to this downward shift, including a decrease in the price of key feedstock Butadiene, despite it witnessing a 3.97% increase from the previous quarter. This change influenced PBR pricing across the region. However, demand from the downstream tire sector remained weak, particularly in the OE and replacement tire segments, due to underperformance in the automobile and manufacturing industries. This weak demand further contributed to the downward pressure on PBR prices, creating an imbalance between supply and demand. France, in particular, experienced considerable price volatility, with a 2.95% year-on-year decrease and an 8.16% drop from the previous quarter, signaling a substantial price adjustment. By the end of Q3 2024, the price of Polybutadiene Rubber in France settled at USD 1800/MT FD Le Havre, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market as oversupply and weak demand continued to weigh on pricing dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market in North America exhibited bearish pricing, influenced by several significant factors. The decline was primarily underpinned by excessive inventory management by suppliers, who aligned production levels closely with demand. Market participants also engaged in strategic destocking activities, which balanced the supply-demand equation. Despite a notable 43% year-over-year price drop, the quarter experienced a mere 6.5% decline from Q1 2024, reflecting a controlled environment.
Seasonality played a role, with moderate to high demand from the automotive and tire sectors providing a consistent pull on PBR, counterbalanced by subdued industrial activities. In the USA, which experienced the most marked price fluctuations, the consistency in pricing was more pronounced.
The overall trend was marked by a resilience against external pressures, such as high feedstock costs, particularly Butadiene, which saw a significant uptick. The quarterly analysis reveals a nuanced interplay between strategic supplier actions and market demand, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 1588/MT DEL Texas.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market in the APAC region has experienced a notable upward trajectory, driven by several key factors. The primary catalyst for the price surge has been the significant increase in the cost of the major feedstock, Butadiene. This escalation is underscored by a sustained demand from various downstream sectors, particularly the tire and automotive industries, which have shown robust consumption patterns. Additionally, market participants have engaged in proactive inventory accumulation, anticipating further price hikes due to supply constraints and heightened production costs. The overall sentiment in the PBR market has been predominantly positive, reflecting the alignment between demand growth and controlled supply. Focusing on Japan, which has witnessed the most pronounced price changes, the market dynamics have been influenced by both global and local factors. The second quarter has seen prices rise by 11.3% from the previous quarter, and an 5.8% increase compared to the same quarter last year. This steady rise underscores a correlation between sustained industrial activity and escalating feedstock prices. The latest quarter-ending price for PBR in Japan stands at USD 2975/MT FOB Tokyo, reflecting a stable yet upward pricing environment, indicative of robust market fundamentals and strategic supply chain management.
Europe
In Q2 2024, Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) pricing in Europe exhibited a largely bullish trend, driven by various significant market dynamics. Central to this upward price trajectory was the considerable increase in the cost of butadiene, the primary feedstock for PBR. This surge in butadiene prices, influenced by tighter supply and heightened demand, fundamentally reshaped the cost structure for PBR. Additionally, stronger performances in downstream markets, particularly the automotive and tire sectors, led to increased engagement from market participants in inventory accumulation. The broader economic conditions, including moderate inflationary pressures and anticipations of supply chain improvements, further influenced market sentiment positively. Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most pronounced price shifts, the overall trend for PBR was marked by rising prices, reflective of a robust demand-supply interplay. Seasonal demand peaks, particularly from the tire manufacturing sector, exacerbated the upward pressure on prices. Despite a moderate -16.1% decrease compared to the same quarter last year, the quarter-over-quarter increase of 10.8% underscores a significant recovery and growth trajectory. Concluding the quarter, PBR was priced at USD 1755/MT FOB Hamburg, reflecting a consistently positive pricing environment. Overall, the pricing sentiment for PBR in Germany during Q2 2024 was decidedly positive, characterized by a stable to bullish outlook driven by strategic market factors and robust downstream demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the USA region, Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) faces a downward price trend due to destocking efforts, despite an upward trajectory in economic sectors like automobiles and tires. The continuous increase in butadiene feedstock further exacerbates this decline.
Outperformance in economic activities has indeed stimulated demand for PBR, evident in the upswing of the automobile and tires sectors. However, the current destocking trend reflects a cautious approach among suppliers, potentially due to market uncertainties or overstocking concerns. Despite the positive performance in the automotive market, with 3,797,420 units sold, the absence of significant breakthroughs suggests a steady rather than explosive growth, contributing to the downward pressure on PBR prices.
As of Q1 2024 the price of the Polybutadiene Rubber in the US market halted at 1702 USD/MT FOB-Texas marking a decline of 18.17% from Q4 2023. Maintaining strategic inventory levels and adapting procurement strategies accordingly will be key in managing the impact of price fluctuations on PBR in the USA region.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market in the APAC region experienced a decline in price. The market maintained an adequate supply, while demand from the automotive and tire sectors remained positive.
However the Japanese firms Yokohama Tire announced of a $380 million investment in a new passenger tire plant in Mexico is expected to boost production by 5 million tires annually starting in the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, Kumho Tire's plans for a new factory in Europe are underway.
Nevertheless in the feedstock market, the Butadiene witnessed a continuous uptrend in the respective period which has not significantly impacted on the PBR price in the respective region indicated the market witnessed a sufficient availability of the inventories to meet the overall demand came from the downstream Tires market. In terms of price trends, in the Q1 2024 price of PBR in APAC particularly Japan, stood at USD 2644/MT FOB Tokyo marking a decline of 1.49%.
Europe
In the European region, Polybutadiene Rubber prices are experienced a surge despite moderate activity in the automobile sector and flat performance in the tire industry. The downward price trend has resulted in marginal accumulations, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The continuous increase in butadiene feedstock prices adds pressure to the upward trajectory of Polybutadiene Rubber prices.
However, amidst these factors, the downstream automobile market demonstrates resilience with a total of 694,825 units sold, albeit marking a 1.66% decline from the previous quarter's 706,543 units in Q3 2023. Despite challenges, this positive performance underscores the steady demand for automobiles in the region.
At 1482 USD/MT FOB-Hamburg, marking a 4.51% increase, Polybutadiene Rubber prices exhibit notable strength. This surge can be attributed to various factors, including supply chain disruptions, increased demand from automotive manufacturers, and the continuous rise in feedstock costs. As demand persists and feedstock prices remain elevated, the suppliers still approaching the Wait and Watch scenario for initiating the biddings for fresh accumulations of the inventories.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The price of Poly Butadiene Rubber (PBR) has experienced a reduction, despite the increase in the price of Butadiene. In terms of downstream markets, strong sales in the overall automotive sector, demand from specific automotive segments has witnessed a downturn, driven by the expectation of sufficient accumulated inventories from manufacturers in the earlier period. The decline in price is further associated with technical indicators reflecting a downward trend, prompting buyers to exercise caution, particularly in terms of aggressive bidding.
In contrast, the US market economy is currently witnessing robust growth due to favorable Federal Reserve (FED) rates, contributing to strong demand from the retail sectors. Core sectors in the US market, including Automobile, Footwear, Construction, and miscellaneous industries, are experiencing robust demand.
However, the anticipated availability of sufficient inventories among producers is impeding the moderate demand for Poly Butadiene Rubber (PBR) in the market. As of this quarter, the price of Polybutadiene Rubber concluded at 2020 USD/MT FOB Texas at 17.88%.
APAC
The decline in the price of Poly-Butadiene Rubber (PBR) in China is primarily attributed to a decrease in the cost of its main raw material, Butadiene. This reduction in feedstock prices is influenced by a downturn in the crude oil market and a decrease in prices from South Korea, a significant exporter. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, there was a substantial month-on-month increase of 10.62 percent in vehicle production in China from October to December, totaling 2.97 million units. Despite the growing demand from downstream users, the main factors contributing to the price decline are identified as the dumping effect from China and the global downturn in crude oil prices. Downstream tire factories have started to recover, providing robust demand support for Poly Butadiene Rubber, and several facilities have been shut down with reduced loads. The market sentiment has turned bearish, resulting in a slight decrease in the factory prices of enterprises. At the end of this quarter, the price of PBR concluded at 2083 USD/MT Ex-Shanghai, marking a decrement of 0.38%.
Europe
The decline in Polybutadiene Rubber prices can be primarily attributed to the ongoing weakness in the European Tyre and Automobile industry, leading to sustained low demand throughout the month. The European automobile sector is experiencing a contraction, with Michelin's announcement of a gradual cessation of production at its Karlsruhe and Trier sites in Germany, including new tire and semi-finished products manufacturing in Hamburg. This decision is linked to increased competition in budget truck tires and the lack of competitiveness of the German operations for European and export markets. Furthermore, four Michelin factories in Spain plan to halt output on the weekend of January 20-21 due to delays in raw material deliveries caused by the crisis in the Red Sea. Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea have disrupted the global demand and supply chain across the region. The downstream automotive sector is facing challenges, as evidenced by a significant 23% year-on-year decline in new car registrations in December. However, sales remained positive from October to December, which is in the 4th Quarter. As of this quarter, the price of Polybutadiene Rubber concluded at 1418 USD/MT FOB - Hamburg, marking a decline of 10.98%.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) prices showcased mixed sentiments in the North American market during the 3rd quarter of 2023. The PBR prices surged notably in July, only to fall back consistently in the subsequent months. The price of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) in the US market rose in July, reflecting strong demand sentiment. Vehicle sales in the US market increased by more than 20% in June, while sales in Western Europe also increased by approximately 19.6%. This led to an increase in PBR procurement in July. In the United States, the June Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was 46.3, down from 48.4 in May. This decrease in PMI was attributed to a further decrease in manufacturing activity, which was further exacerbated by a drop in new orders, a reduction in input costs, and an acceleration of destocking. However, the PBR market experienced a notable decline in the rest of the quarter. This price depreciation can be attributed to the sustained plummeting of feedstock Butadiene prices. The protracted slump in Butadiene prices has exerted downward pressure on the overall production expenses of PBR. Interestingly, even as the global automotive and tire sectors demonstrated robust market sentiments, the market dynamics remained skewed towards oversupply, resulting in a significant dip in pricing trends.
APAC
Unlike North America, the Asia-Pacific region witnessed a consistent decline in Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) during the third quarter of 2023. In the third quarter of 2023, the Asian new vehicle market experienced significant growth, mainly due to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 lockdowns that began to ease in the latter part of the previous year. This recovery was further facilitated by an improved supply of semiconductors, allowing automotive manufacturers to increase production and reduce order backlogs. Despite strong demand from the automotive industry, the prices of PBR in the Asian market have been consistently decreasing. This price decline can be attributed to several factors, including a simultaneous drop in the prices of the key raw material, Butadiene, and increased competition in the market. These factors have combined to reshape the pricing dynamics in the PBR sector significantly. The reduced cost of Butadiene has directly impacted manufacturing expenses, necessitating a downward adjustment in the prices of the final products. Additionally, heightened competition has led manufacturers to strategically lower their prices to maintain their competitiveness in the industry.
Europe
In the European market, Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) prices initially saw a decline for the first two months of Q3 2023 but later leveled off in September. This drop in prices was a result of a significant reduction in production costs, mainly due to the prolonged decrease in the price of the raw material, Butadiene. The declining raw material costs directly impacted the final pricing of PBR, leading to a continuous downward trend in its market price. Consequently, despite positive developments in the automotive sector, the European PBR market continued to be influenced by ongoing cost dynamics driven by the weakening prices of raw materials. However, as the quarter neared its end, prices stabilized, primarily due to minimal fluctuations in the costs of Butadiene. This stability in raw material prices played a crucial role in supporting the PBR market. Furthermore, the performance of the automotive industry, both domestically and globally, remained consistent during this period. This steady demand and production in the automotive sector were key factors in maintaining the stable market value of PBR.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During Q2 2023, the North American Polybutadiene Rubber pricing trend showed mixed sentiments. The prices decreased in April, then recovered and showed an upswing in May and June. Initially, Polybutadiene Rubber prices continued to decline as the U.S. automobile industry faced challenges due to increasing interest rates and unfavorable economic conditions. This decreased the market demand for Polybutadiene Rubber, while the construction sector, which was in a critical stage, did not see any improvement in consumption. Polybutadiene Rubber prices were further supported by a consistent decrease in feedstock Butadiene prices. However, the U.S. automotive industry registered annual growth in May and June of over 20%. This increased Polybutadiene Rubber procurement during the second half of Q2 2023. In addition, the U.S. manufacturing PMI decreased further in June from 48.4 in May to 46.3. This decrease was driven by a decrease in new orders for some products, a decrease in input costs, and an increase in inventory levels. Consequently, contracting industrial activity in the country further supported the rise in Polybutadiene Rubber prices.
APAC
The Asia-Pacific Region saw a steady increase in Polybutadiene Rubber prices throughout the second quarter of 2023. Prices increased steadily throughout the quarter, with the most significant improvement at the beginning of the quarter. In April, the cost of Polybutadiene Rubber increased due to a surge in downstream demand. The demand for tires increased during the month, resulting in an increase in the need for Polybutadiene Rubber. Similarly, the use of Polybutadiene Rubber increased significantly in May due to the growth of the pharmaceutical and automotive industries. The significant growth of these sectors resulted in a rise in the demand for Polybutadiene Rubber, leading to an increase in its market value. In June, the prices of Polybutadiene Rubber in Japan increased significantly, driven by an increase in both domestic and international market demand. Domestic automotive sales in the month of June increased 19.8% compared to the same month of the year prior. As import orders from Asian countries, such as South Korea and India, increased, the procurement of Polybutadiene Rubber further increased, resulting in an increment in the market value.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2023, the price of Polybutadiene Rubber decreased steadily in the European market: In April, the prices in the European market decreased despite the good market sentiment of the downstream automotive industry. The reason for the price decrease was the poor performance of replacement tires in the market, which led to fewer purchases of this material. In May, the price in the European market declined again. The decreasing input costs, combined with the decreasing energy prices, caused a significant drop in the cost of production of this material, which led to a decrease in its market value. Also, in May, the new order inflow decreased significantly, which was the most significant drop in the last six months, and Eurozone exports also decreased significantly. In June, the demand in the European market was weak, despite the good market momentum of the downstream automotive industry. Furthermore, the inventories were available in surplus, which further supported the plunge in Polybutadiene Rubber prices.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
Amidst shifting supply and demand dynamics, the Polybutadiene Rubber market displayed conflicting sentiments in the first quarter of 2023. The cost of Polybutadiene Rubber increased in February after falling in January, but as the quarter's end draws near, the price has fallen once more. The automobile sector began to recover as soon as the semiconductor supply in the area recovered, but it was quickly impacted by the economic unrest brought on by the failure of two significant US banks. As a result of the automobile industry being particularly badly impacted by the economic downturn, less Polybutadiene Rubber was being used in the sector, which eventually resulted in a price decrease. Yet in the USA, the costs for Polybutadiene Rubber Medium Diene were estimated at USD 2932/MT FOB Texas.
APAC
The market for Polybutadiene Rubber in the Asia-Pacific region saw a mixed level of sentiment. The prices of Polybutadiene Rubber in Asia-Pacific fell in January, rose in February, and then fell again in March. As China began to destock its car inventories, the Asia-Pacific region's already struggling automotive industry soon began to show signs of decline. Tesla triggered a pricing war in the Chinese auto industry by lowering the market value of automobiles due to high inventories and low sales. This prompted other manufacturers to follow suit, which led to the destocking of the automotive industry. The manufacturing of automobiles decreased because of the automotive industry's busy destocking efforts, which also influenced the consumption of Polybutadiene Rubber. Hence, the demand in the Asian market declined, which caused a drop in Polybutadiene Rubber prices. Consequently, In Japan, the assessed cost of Polybutadiene Rubber was USD 2330/MT FOB Tokyo.
Europe
The Polybutadiene Rubber prices declined in the European market all through the Q1 of 2023, backed by decreased downstream demand. Though the downstream automotive and tire industries showed signs of recovery several times in the European market during the quarter, the demand for Polybutadiene Rubber did not improve much. Furthermore, there was an abundance of inventories of Polybutadiene Rubber, and the supply rate outpaced the needed demand in the region; hence the price fall happened. Additionally, amidst no port congestion and supply chain bottlenecks, the supply rate improved, which further supported the drop in Polybutadiene Rubber prices. Hence, In Germany, the assessed price of Polybutadiene Rubber was USD 2136/MT FOB Hamburg during March.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Polybutadiene Rubber's market value declined in the North American market due to weak downstream demand and declining manufacturing costs. The demand for Polybutadiene Rubber from the downstream tire and automotive industries decreased because of their lackluster performance in terms of sales and industrial output during the quarter. Furthermore, As the cost of production for Polybutadiene Rubber plummeted along with the falling prices of crude oil and natural gas, the market value of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) dropped. Hence, in the USA, the evaluated price of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) was USD 2535/MT FOB Texas in December, which was 6.7% less than that in September.
APAC
Amid sluggish downstream demand and falling manufacturing costs, Polybutadiene Rubber's market value decreased during the fourth quarter of 2022 in the Asia-Pacific region. Due to the underwhelming market performance of the tire and automotive sectors in terms of sales and industrial output during the quarter, demand for Polybutadiene rubber from these industries declined. Additionally, the market value of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) decreased as the cost of production for the material fell along with the prices of crude oil and natural gas. Thus, the evaluated price of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) Spot Price in China during December was USD 1635/MT Ex-Shanghai, which was 23.9% less than that in September.
Europe
The market value of Polybutadiene Rubber declined consistently in the European market during the fourth quarter of 2022 due to weak downstream demand and declining manufacturing costs. The demand for Polybutadiene Rubber from the downstream tire and automotive industries decreased because of the sector's disappointing performance in terms of sales and industrial output during the quarter. Additionally, as crude oil and natural gas prices plummeted, so did the cost of producing Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR), which resulted in the decreased market value of the material. Thus, the evaluated price for polybutadiene rubber (PBR) in Germany during December was USD 2451/MT FOB Hamburg, which was 9.4% less than the price in September.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The prices of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) increased consistently in the North American market during quarter 3 of 2022, backed by surged raw material prices. Though the downstream demand from the tire and automotive industries was not that strong during the quarter, the soaring raw material prices inclined the upstream cost involved in Polybutadiene Rubber manufacturing which eventually raised its market value. Besides, port congestion and supply disruptions in the quarter's second half further increased the value of Polybutadiene Rubber in the domestic market. Hence, the assessed price value of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) was USD 2717/MT FOB Texas (USA) during September.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2022, the price of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR), supported by soaring raw material costs, grew steadily in the Asia-Pacific region. Even though the downstream demand from the tire and automotive industries was not particularly strong during the quarter, the rising cost of raw materials increased the upstream costs associated with producing Polybutadiene Rubber, which ultimately increased its market value. In addition, port backlogs and supply hiccups in the second part of the quarter in some Asian countries contributed to an even more significant increase in the price of Polybutadiene Rubber in the domestic market. As a result, the estimated price for Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) at FOB Tokyo in September was USD 2682/MT.
Europe
Unlike North America and APAC markets, Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) prices decreased throughout the third quarter of 2022 in European countries, backed by weak downstream demand. The downstream demand from the automotive and tire industries was poor during the quarter due to reduced outputs. It decreased sales in the domestic market, eventually leading to a lesser offtake of Polybutadiene Rubber. Furthermore, the supply was regular, industrial operation rates of PBR were improved, and the inventories overflowed with too many stocks, which ensured better material availability in the market. Hence, the price value of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) assembled at USD 2705/MT FOB Hamburg (Germany) during September.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Naphtha and raffinate prices skyrocketed in the US market during the second quarter of 2022. Consequently, the C4 chain, including Butadiene prices, also increased substantially in the last few months. Increasing feedstock costs, soaring energy prices, and logistical constraints burdened the manufacturers prompting a 7-12% price increase throughout the quarter. Demand from the downstream tyre industry remained optimistic as the automotive industry showed signs of recovery after sluggish last two quarters. On the import side, South Korea faced logistical problems in the quarter's later stages, which hampered PBR's smooth supply onto the US shores.
APAC
As per the latest insights, the rising raw material cost has been pressuring the Indian market throughout Q2 2022, where prices of downstream derivatives are tracing an uptrend in the domestic market. The data shows a consistent rise in the price of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) in India during the 2nd quarter, owing to ample offtakes from the downstream tyre manufacturers etc. The Indian tyre manufacturer has been facing the heat of high raw material costs, pressuring their pockets and resisting their actual growth. However, demand fundamentals for the product remained stable on the back of monsoon demand, as manufacturers heard anticipating fine offtakes from the replacement tyre segment. In addition, it was observed that Indian players are also filling up their strategic inventories under the threat of scarcity in the future. The PBR price rose effectively and settled around INR 219280/MT
Europe
The European market witnessed a strong surge in Polybutadiene Rubber prices as the feedstock market went haywire. At the same time, the imports of PBR were cut short from neighboring Russia amid a widening geopolitical gulf between Russia and Europe after the Ukrainian war. Feedstock Butadiene reached a multi-year high in the domestic market, prompting manufacturers to opt for an increase of 10-15% or even more during the quarter. Russia has been a key exporter of Polybutadiene Rubber to Europe; however, on the back of severe sanctions, material availability on the European market took a serious hit resulting in scarce PBR for the end-users and processors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The polybutadiene rubber market has been termed as firm in the North American region owing to strong cost pressure from upstream feedstocks and stable demand from downstream industries. Feedstock Butadiene remained in robust demand throughout the quarter due to the versatility of Butadiene in its application in several key polymers and elastomers. Furthermore, climbing crude oil and natural gas prices further put inflationary pressure on downstream Butadiene. Hence, Butadiene prices rose consistently throughout the quarter resulting in cost pressure over downstream PBR. On demand side, consumption from the tire industry remained stable as demand for replacement tires grew in the USA. Thus, as of March 2022, PBR prices were assessed at USD 2840 per MT on FOB basis
Asia Pacific
The Polybutadiene rubber market has been termed as strong on the back of strong demand fundamentals and robust cost pressure. Polybutadiene rubber prices have gained 2.5% in February and were assessed at INR 176660 per MT (USD 2303.05 per MT) Ex-Mumbai on the 1st week of March 2022. Feedstock Butadiene production has been firm as no reports of any production lags were reported by any manufacturers. Butadiene prices have also been firm in the market, maintaining healthy cost pressure on downstream Polybutadiene rubber. On the demand side, Polybutadiene rubber finds its major use in tire industry continues to put impressive production. Hence, procurement of elastomers has been firm. Imports of PBR from South Korea and other countries have also been costly, keeping the pricing dynamics strong in the domestic market. In China, the Polybutadiene market seesawed where prices rose initially in January while pricing sentiment deteriorated in February as demand declined however, prices rebounded in March in the backdrop of rising costs of Butadiene and stability in demand from downstream industries. As of March, PBR prices were assessed at USD 2215 per MT on FOB basis.
Europe
During Q1 of 2022, the European Polybutadiene Rubber market observed a strong bullish rally owing to the limited supply of the material in the domestic market. Russia has been a crucial exporter of Polybutadiene Rubber in the European market; however Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the market dynamics as European nations looked for alternatives. Asian PBR exporters faced inflationary pressure as transit fees on Suez Canal increased significantly, increasing the overall cost of the material reaching European shores. In the domestic markets of Europe, PBR prices rose substantially owing to limited availability and the climbing cost of feedstock Butadiene. Based on the aforementioned factors, PBR prices were assessed at USD 2945 per MT on FD basis in March 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Several market participants reported that demand from Tire industry and footwear industry remained healthy throughout the last quarter which ended 2021 on a robust note in terms of production and revenue. This has increased the consumption of Polybutadiene rubber in last few months. Meanwhile supply fundamentals improved after struggling Q3 where truck availability was termed as severely limited across the North American region. Feedstock butadiene prices eased in the last quarter after displaying chaotic numbers in Q3. PBR prices have vindicated the above demand pattern where prices continuously increased throughout Q4. PBR prices were assessed in early October at USD 2550 per MT while priced ended the last quarter at USD 2760 per MT in December.
APAC
Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) prices remained firm in the last quarter on the back of robust demand from the Indian domestic market under festive season optimism. Synthetic rubber market showcased improvement in imports as well as in consumption during Q4. Thus, PBR price rose during last three months and settled around INR 197250/MT Ex-Mumbai. In China, Polybutadiene prices remained on a declining trend throughout Q4 in China as cost pressure from feedstock butadiene dropped due to deteriorating coal and crude prices in the last quarter. Demand from tire industry was also termed as soft by several market participants due to sluggish offtakes from automotive industry. Price of PBR fell from USD 2326 per MT in October to USD 2210 per MT on FOB basis in December.
Europe
Robust demand from downstream tire industry and footwear industry along with consistently risen feedstock prices have culminated into a strong quarter for Polybutadiene rubber market in Europe. PBR market gained from increased consumption and Ex-work price rose from USD 2630 per MT in October to USD 2890 per MT in December. Butadiene market remained on an incessant uptrend which pressured manufacturers to keep the PBR prices healthy throughout Q4. PBR Imports from Far East Asia remained limited on the European shores as high freight charges provided restricted opportunity for Asian exports to be competitive and sustainable across European countries.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
During the third quarter of 2021, there was a hike in the prices of upstream Butadiene across the North American region which had a huge impact on the pricing of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR). Demand for PBR remained stable to stagnant throughout the quarter from the downstream automotive industry as market improved in terms of production. However consumption trends remained yet to materialize due to the shortage of semiconductor chips in the 3rd quarter as well.
Asia pacific
In Q3 2021, the prices of PBR witnessed a steep rise in the Asia Pacific region. Discussions of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) in the domestic market continued to stay firm in Q3 buoyed by consistent increment in demand for tires in the past 2 months. In China, the demand was sturdy from the downstream tire sector, and better offtakes were reported with the rebound in construction activities. As majority of elastomers are largely imported in India, tire manufacturers urged the government to reduce import duties on rubber prices due to the high shipping charges causing acute shortage of the product in the country. CFR JNPT (India) pricing of PBR escalated from USD 1744/MT to USD 2218/MT during the third quarter.
Europe
In the European region, the overall market of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) witnessed an upward trajectory in the third quarter of 2021. There was an increment in the demand for PBR across the region due to the shipment of huge cargoes to the US as it has lesser freight charges and high import duties over the Chinese counterparts. Offtakes surged from the downstream construction and automotive sectors despite heavily curtailed production in Germany. Demand outlook remained uncertain as disruption in production caused by the global chip shortage continued even in third quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
The downstream activity picked up as the industrial Infrastructure in the US Gulf region recovered from the devastating impact of winter storm Uri. Despite some eases on the supply side, the regional Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market still witnessed short availability of monomer Butadiene, which further hindered the production. Several BD producers in the US Gulf region were struggling to operate at normal rates with offered prices as high as 70% quarter-on-quarter. PBR demand was exceptionally high from the downstream tire industries as the sentiment to replenish the inventories were strong among the buyers. Price of Polybutadiene Rubber observed an uptrend since the start of the second quarter with FOB Texas discussion settling at USD 1788 per tonne in June.
Asia pacific
During the second quarter of 2021, the supplies of Polybutadiene Rubber remained balanced as operating rates at several manufacturing plants picked up to meet the downstream end use demand, but some constraints were witnessed amid the May Day holidays in China. Surge in consumption of natural rubber was seen negatively impacting the Polybutadiene Rubber market in China. Demand was consistent from the downstream tire sector, and better offtakes were reported with the rebound in the construction activities. The pricing trend of PBR stabilized early in the second quarter when FOB Qingdao settlements were assessed at USD 2000 per tonne in April. The uptrend was supported by low inventory levels of the feedstock Butadiene in South Korea. However, some expressed hopes that feedstock supplies were anticipated to improve in near term as the several Chinese Butadiene capacity expansions are lined up in the second half of 2021.
Europe
During Q2 2021, Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) supplies improved due to the increased operating rates at several manufacturing facilities however high export demand from the US put significant pressure on the European Polybutadiene Rubber market. Demand surged as most USA buyers preferred the European shipments over Northeast Asian cargoes due to lesser freight charges and high import duties over the Chinese origin materials. PBR Offtakes surged from the downstream construction and automotive sectors. The pricing trend in the European market was buoyed by the tight supply and high demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
During the first quarter, synthetic rubber supplies in the North American region were hit by turnaround at major feedstock manufacturing plants due to extreme freeze weather conditions in the US gulf region that hindered the production levels various producing belts. As major players declared force majeures, around 50% of the elastomer production was hit by the winter storm. However, the demand showed recovery as the consumption improved from the automotive sector. Arlenxeo delivered voluminous consignments of PBR to the Goodyear and Ceat respectively, with FOB prices hovering at USD 1600/ton- USD 1750/ton in March. Whereas the April delivery FOB charges were announced at USD 1640/ton to USD 1720/ton varies according to the grade.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
The supplies of Polybutadiene rubber (PBR) in Q1 2021 improved as compared to previous quarter, with the addition of new facilities is China, confirmed with the required availability of monomer Butadiene. Moreover, several plants in the northeast Asia ended their scheduled turnarounds in the first half of Q1. However, the demand remained balanced due to recovering automotive sector, but the resurgence of COVID in some economies towards the end of the quarter kept the market cautious in the southwest region. India imported significant quantities of PBR from the US taking quarterly average of PBR in India to USD 1133/tonne in February.
Europe
PBR supplies were tight due to reduced import from the US, amid severe weather conditions, followed by limited availability of the feedstock Butadiene as larger volumes were exported towards the Asian region. However, the demand remained balanced from the improved offtakes from the recovering automotive sector. With a larger portion of the Butadiene getting diverted towards the production of styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) in the European region, PBR supplies remained constrained for a larger part of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2020
North America
In the first half of Q4, BASF Total restarted its US Port Arthur, Texas associated Butadiene (BD) unit after an unplanned turnaround in June. Increased demand from the PBR sector and increasing production rates were the key factors responsible for the increment in BD sales volume during Q4. Abrupt surge in the feedstock significantly affected the production margins of the regional PBR producers. While demand outlook turned favorable due to recovery from the hurricane related disruptions, resurgence in offtakes by the tire producers kept the prices afloat.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
Price of Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) in the Asian market surged amid tight feedstock supplies in H1 of Q4, meanwhile later in the quarter, upstream supplies were heard easing to an optimum level. An unexpected shutdown at China’s Sinopec Zhongke’s new 120 KTPA Butadiene unit created hindrance in the raw material availability. In the first half of the quarter, PBR prices spiked in response to firming raw materials and tight supply situation. With producers directing their supplies largely in the automotive sector, Chinese PBR producers reported renewed pressure over the production margins following the price spike. India’s RIL revealed its investment plan of setting up a PBR Plant at Panipat Naphtha Cracker Complex, that will be completed in 2022. Tracing the upsurge in price of the feedstock and favorable demand prospects, price of PBR maintained an average of USD 1211/ton and USD 1160/ton in the Indian markets.
Europe
Abrupt spike in the feedstock rates in the Asian and North American regions, boosted the PBR export opportunities by the European countries. Meanwhile the feedstock (Butadiene) supply remained below average during Q4. Traders reported that high seasonal demand for Ethylene and Propylene during the quarter limited the crude C-4 feedstock availability. PBR spot prices in the European market surged as strong competition among traders and increased demand for the exports amid supply restrictions spiked the product cost of Asian and North American regions.
