For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market experienced a significant price increase, driven by various converging factors. There was a notable surge in demand from key sectors, particularly automotive tires and industrial applications, coupled with supply chain disruptions and rising feedstock costs. The primary feedstock, Butadiene, saw a 1.88% increase compared to the previous quarter.
Additionally, suppliers were heavily engaged in long-term buildup activities to meet the current market demand, contributing to the overall rise in PBR prices. Prices increased by 12.40% from the previous quarter, reflecting the dynamic nature of the market. However, when compared to the same quarter last year, prices were still down by 37%, indicating a substantial recovery in the current market landscape.
By the end of the quarter, the price for Polybutadiene Rubber in the USA reached USD 1937/MT FOB Texas, highlighting the overall positive sentiment in the pricing environment. This increase marks a period of growth and resilience in the PBR market, showcasing its adaptability to changing conditions while maintaining stability amidst external challenges.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, the Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) pricing landscape in the APAC region has experienced a steady increase. This upward trend can be attributed to several factors influencing market dynamics, including rising costs of key feedstock Butadiene, sustained demand from various sectors, and strategic inventory management by market participants. Collectively, these elements have fostered a positive pricing environment in the region. Demand for tires in the Asian market has remained moderate, but depleting inventories and surging Butadiene costs have significantly impacted PBR prices. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most substantial price changes in the APAC region during this quarter, reflecting broader market sentiments. The market recorded a notable 15.71% increase from the same quarter last year, alongside an 8.20% rise from the previous quarter in 2024. Closing the quarter at USD 3200/MT for Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) FOB Tokyo, Japan has demonstrated a robust and positive pricing environment throughout Q3 2024, highlighting the resilience and growth of the market amid ongoing challenges.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market experienced a significant drop in prices, with France seeing the most notable declines. Several factors contributed to this downward shift, including a decrease in the price of key feedstock Butadiene, despite it witnessing a 3.97% increase from the previous quarter. This change influenced PBR pricing across the region. However, demand from the downstream tire sector remained weak, particularly in the OE and replacement tire segments, due to underperformance in the automobile and manufacturing industries. This weak demand further contributed to the downward pressure on PBR prices, creating an imbalance between supply and demand. France, in particular, experienced considerable price volatility, with a 2.95% year-on-year decrease and an 8.16% drop from the previous quarter, signaling a substantial price adjustment. By the end of Q3 2024, the price of Polybutadiene Rubber in France settled at USD 1800/MT FD Le Havre, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market as oversupply and weak demand continued to weigh on pricing dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market in North America exhibited bearish pricing, influenced by several significant factors. The decline was primarily underpinned by excessive inventory management by suppliers, who aligned production levels closely with demand. Market participants also engaged in strategic destocking activities, which balanced the supply-demand equation. Despite a notable 43% year-over-year price drop, the quarter experienced a mere 6.5% decline from Q1 2024, reflecting a controlled environment.
Seasonality played a role, with moderate to high demand from the automotive and tire sectors providing a consistent pull on PBR, counterbalanced by subdued industrial activities. In the USA, which experienced the most marked price fluctuations, the consistency in pricing was more pronounced.
The overall trend was marked by a resilience against external pressures, such as high feedstock costs, particularly Butadiene, which saw a significant uptick. The quarterly analysis reveals a nuanced interplay between strategic supplier actions and market demand, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 1588/MT DEL Texas.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market in the APAC region has experienced a notable upward trajectory, driven by several key factors. The primary catalyst for the price surge has been the significant increase in the cost of the major feedstock, Butadiene. This escalation is underscored by a sustained demand from various downstream sectors, particularly the tire and automotive industries, which have shown robust consumption patterns. Additionally, market participants have engaged in proactive inventory accumulation, anticipating further price hikes due to supply constraints and heightened production costs. The overall sentiment in the PBR market has been predominantly positive, reflecting the alignment between demand growth and controlled supply. Focusing on Japan, which has witnessed the most pronounced price changes, the market dynamics have been influenced by both global and local factors. The second quarter has seen prices rise by 11.3% from the previous quarter, and an 5.8% increase compared to the same quarter last year. This steady rise underscores a correlation between sustained industrial activity and escalating feedstock prices. The latest quarter-ending price for PBR in Japan stands at USD 2975/MT FOB Tokyo, reflecting a stable yet upward pricing environment, indicative of robust market fundamentals and strategic supply chain management.
Europe
In Q2 2024, Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) pricing in Europe exhibited a largely bullish trend, driven by various significant market dynamics. Central to this upward price trajectory was the considerable increase in the cost of butadiene, the primary feedstock for PBR. This surge in butadiene prices, influenced by tighter supply and heightened demand, fundamentally reshaped the cost structure for PBR. Additionally, stronger performances in downstream markets, particularly the automotive and tire sectors, led to increased engagement from market participants in inventory accumulation. The broader economic conditions, including moderate inflationary pressures and anticipations of supply chain improvements, further influenced market sentiment positively. Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most pronounced price shifts, the overall trend for PBR was marked by rising prices, reflective of a robust demand-supply interplay. Seasonal demand peaks, particularly from the tire manufacturing sector, exacerbated the upward pressure on prices. Despite a moderate -16.1% decrease compared to the same quarter last year, the quarter-over-quarter increase of 10.8% underscores a significant recovery and growth trajectory. Concluding the quarter, PBR was priced at USD 1755/MT FOB Hamburg, reflecting a consistently positive pricing environment. Overall, the pricing sentiment for PBR in Germany during Q2 2024 was decidedly positive, characterized by a stable to bullish outlook driven by strategic market factors and robust downstream demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the USA region, Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) faces a downward price trend due to destocking efforts, despite an upward trajectory in economic sectors like automobiles and tires. The continuous increase in butadiene feedstock further exacerbates this decline.
Outperformance in economic activities has indeed stimulated demand for PBR, evident in the upswing of the automobile and tires sectors. However, the current destocking trend reflects a cautious approach among suppliers, potentially due to market uncertainties or overstocking concerns. Despite the positive performance in the automotive market, with 3,797,420 units sold, the absence of significant breakthroughs suggests a steady rather than explosive growth, contributing to the downward pressure on PBR prices.
As of Q1 2024 the price of the Polybutadiene Rubber in the US market halted at 1702 USD/MT FOB-Texas marking a decline of 18.17% from Q4 2023. Maintaining strategic inventory levels and adapting procurement strategies accordingly will be key in managing the impact of price fluctuations on PBR in the USA region.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Polybutadiene Rubber (PBR) market in the APAC region experienced a decline in price. The market maintained an adequate supply, while demand from the automotive and tire sectors remained positive.
However the Japanese firms Yokohama Tire announced of a $380 million investment in a new passenger tire plant in Mexico is expected to boost production by 5 million tires annually starting in the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, Kumho Tire's plans for a new factory in Europe are underway.
Nevertheless in the feedstock market, the Butadiene witnessed a continuous uptrend in the respective period which has not significantly impacted on the PBR price in the respective region indicated the market witnessed a sufficient availability of the inventories to meet the overall demand came from the downstream Tires market. In terms of price trends, in the Q1 2024 price of PBR in APAC particularly Japan, stood at USD 2644/MT FOB Tokyo marking a decline of 1.49%.
Europe
In the European region, Polybutadiene Rubber prices are experienced a surge despite moderate activity in the automobile sector and flat performance in the tire industry. The downward price trend has resulted in marginal accumulations, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The continuous increase in butadiene feedstock prices adds pressure to the upward trajectory of Polybutadiene Rubber prices.
However, amidst these factors, the downstream automobile market demonstrates resilience with a total of 694,825 units sold, albeit marking a 1.66% decline from the previous quarter's 706,543 units in Q3 2023. Despite challenges, this positive performance underscores the steady demand for automobiles in the region.
At 1482 USD/MT FOB-Hamburg, marking a 4.51% increase, Polybutadiene Rubber prices exhibit notable strength. This surge can be attributed to various factors, including supply chain disruptions, increased demand from automotive manufacturers, and the continuous rise in feedstock costs. As demand persists and feedstock prices remain elevated, the suppliers still approaching the Wait and Watch scenario for initiating the biddings for fresh accumulations of the inventories.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The price of Poly Butadiene Rubber (PBR) has experienced a reduction, despite the increase in the price of Butadiene. In terms of downstream markets, strong sales in the overall automotive sector, demand from specific automotive segments has witnessed a downturn, driven by the expectation of sufficient accumulated inventories from manufacturers in the earlier period. The decline in price is further associated with technical indicators reflecting a downward trend, prompting buyers to exercise caution, particularly in terms of aggressive bidding.
In contrast, the US market economy is currently witnessing robust growth due to favorable Federal Reserve (FED) rates, contributing to strong demand from the retail sectors. Core sectors in the US market, including Automobile, Footwear, Construction, and miscellaneous industries, are experiencing robust demand.
However, the anticipated availability of sufficient inventories among producers is impeding the moderate demand for Poly Butadiene Rubber (PBR) in the market. As of this quarter, the price of Polybutadiene Rubber concluded at 2020 USD/MT FOB Texas at 17.88%.
APAC
The decline in the price of Poly-Butadiene Rubber (PBR) in China is primarily attributed to a decrease in the cost of its main raw material, Butadiene. This reduction in feedstock prices is influenced by a downturn in the crude oil market and a decrease in prices from South Korea, a significant exporter. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, there was a substantial month-on-month increase of 10.62 percent in vehicle production in China from October to December, totaling 2.97 million units. Despite the growing demand from downstream users, the main factors contributing to the price decline are identified as the dumping effect from China and the global downturn in crude oil prices. Downstream tire factories have started to recover, providing robust demand support for Poly Butadiene Rubber, and several facilities have been shut down with reduced loads. The market sentiment has turned bearish, resulting in a slight decrease in the factory prices of enterprises. At the end of this quarter, the price of PBR concluded at 2083 USD/MT Ex-Shanghai, marking a decrement of 0.38%.
Europe
The decline in Polybutadiene Rubber prices can be primarily attributed to the ongoing weakness in the European Tyre and Automobile industry, leading to sustained low demand throughout the month. The European automobile sector is experiencing a contraction, with Michelin's announcement of a gradual cessation of production at its Karlsruhe and Trier sites in Germany, including new tire and semi-finished products manufacturing in Hamburg. This decision is linked to increased competition in budget truck tires and the lack of competitiveness of the German operations for European and export markets. Furthermore, four Michelin factories in Spain plan to halt output on the weekend of January 20-21 due to delays in raw material deliveries caused by the crisis in the Red Sea. Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea have disrupted the global demand and supply chain across the region. The downstream automotive sector is facing challenges, as evidenced by a significant 23% year-on-year decline in new car registrations in December. However, sales remained positive from October to December, which is in the 4th Quarter. As of this quarter, the price of Polybutadiene Rubber concluded at 1418 USD/MT FOB - Hamburg, marking a decline of 10.98%.
