For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In USA, the Phenol Price Index fell by 14.61% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting export weakness and subdued domestic demand.
• The average Phenol price this quarter was USD 902.00/MT, reflecting balanced supply and subdued demand.
• Phenol Spot Price remained rangebound, the Price Index indicating stability as feedstock costs stayed steady.
• Phenol Price Forecast indicates modest volatility, constrained by ample inventories and predictable feedstock cost trajectories.
• Phenol Production Cost Trend softened as benzene and refinery margins eased, enabling producer margin adjustments.
• Phenol Demand Outlook subdued; bisphenol A and resin buyers limited purchases to near-term operational needs.
• Phenol Price Index reflected export competitiveness and ample inventories, constraining upward price momentum this quarter.
• Major Gulf Coast producers ran near capacity, supporting supply continuity while keeping spot liquidity moderate.
Why did the price of Phenol change in December 2025 in North America?
• Ample domestic production and steady inventories limited upside, creating oversupply against cautious downstream purchasing patterns.
• Eased benzene and crude-related feedstock costs lowered production expense, allowing sellers to selectively reduce offers.
• Competitive export parity and lower freight rates intensified outbound pressure, constraining pricing flexibility for sellers.
APAC
• In Japan, the Phenol Price Index fell by 7.1% quarter-over-quarter, extending bearish supply-demand imbalance further.
• The average Phenol price for the quarter was approximately USD 728.67/MT across APAC markets, reflecting realizations.
• Phenol Spot Price weakened amid ample imports, elevated inventories and subdued downstream procurement across regions.
• Phenol Price Forecast sees volatility near term, driven by feedstock stability and seasonal restocking uncertainty.
• Phenol Production Cost Trend remained muted as benzene and energy eased, offering limited cost-floor support.
• Phenol Demand Outlook remains weak with BPA and automotive resin pull restrained, suppressing buying interest.
• Phenol Price Index reflected steady producer throughput, disciplined selling and competitive landed imports keeping pressure.
• Phenol Price Index movement influenced by fleet freight declines, stable operations and conservative buyer hand-to-mouth strategies.
Why did the price of Phenol change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Ample Asian imports and steady domestic production increased coastal inventories, reducing sellers pricing leverage materially.
• Lower benzene and naphtha costs trimmed production cash costs, but did not stimulate immediate downstream buying.
• Year-end plant shutdowns and weak automotive semiconductor demand curtailed resin orders, limiting phenol consumption recovery.
Europe
• In Germany, the Phenol Price Index rose by 2.78% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tightening logistics and feedstock support.
• The average Phenol price for the quarter was approximately USD 949.00/MT, reflecting balanced inventory and restocking.
• Prompt availability tightened, pushing up the Phenol Spot Price amid constrained logistics and energy costs.
• Producers passed higher benzene and compliance costs, lifting the Phenol Production Cost Trend and supporting offers.
• Downstream restocking improved, shaping a firmer Phenol Demand Outlook for bisphenol-A, resins, and polycarbonate producers.
• Analysts maintained a cautious Phenol Price Forecast leaning higher given domestic coverage and limited imports.
• Inventory levels remained balanced, lean in hubs, influencing the Phenol Price Index and restraining discounts.
• Export arbitrage narrowed, preserving regional tightness as container freight and currency dynamics reduced import competitiveness.
Why did the price of Phenol change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Logistical bottlenecks on river and rail tightened prompt supply, supporting domestic spot premiums and momentum.
• Higher benzene and energy-linked costs pushed production economics up, prompting producers to lift spot offers.
• Improved downstream procurement and restocking by BPA, resin sectors increased demand amid less competitive imports.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In USA, the Phenol Price Index rose by 4.06% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tightening and downstream demand.
• The average Phenol price for the quarter was approximately USD 1017.00/MT, supported by steady production.
• Phenol Spot Price volatility remained muted as units operated reliably, constraining spot liquidity and activity.
• Phenol Price Forecast shows downside risk absent production outages, with potential rebounds if supplies tighten.
• Phenol Production Cost Trend was stable despite benzene cost dips, supporting producer margins and discipline.
• Phenol Demand Outlook is subdued with weaker BPA procurement, limiting pressure on the Price Index.
• Phenol Price Index weakness reflected inventory builds, operating rates and constrained export flows across region.
• Major producers ran at steady rates with occasional outages influencing short-term availability and spot market tightening.
Why did the price of Phenol change in September 2025 in North America?
• Persistent oversupply from uninterrupted plant operations and ample benzene feedstock pressured Phenol availability, weakening prices.
• Sluggish derivative demand, notably BPA and phenolic resins, reduced procurement, exacerbating downward Price Index momentum.
• Limited export opportunities and inventories with stable energy costs limited upside for Phenol Spot Price.
APAC
• In Japan, the Phenol Price Index fell by 6.02% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting downstream weakness and oversupply.
• The average Phenol price for the quarter was approximately USD 1160.00/MT, based on FOB Osaka.
• Stable Phenol Spot Price observed as domestic plants ran reliably, inventories adequate and exports consistent.
• Phenol Price Forecast indicates near-term range-bound movement given balanced supply and measured derivative demand recovery.
• Phenol Production Cost Trend remained stable with slightly lower benzene, limiting input-cost pass-through to sellers.
• Phenol Demand Outlook improved in mid-September as epoxy and resin sectors increased procurement, supporting resilience.
• Phenol Price Index saw mid-month firmness due to export absorption, despite domestic buyers remaining conservative.
• Inventory levels and container freight easing supported exports, while major producers maintained operating rates throughout.
Why did the price of Phenol change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Improved downstream resin and epoxy offtake increased physical demand, tightening local availability during mid-September sessions.
• Stable benzene and propylene costs limited production cost pressures, reducing input-driven price volatility during month.
• Balanced exports and eased container freight maintained flows, preventing price spikes despite regional inventory differences.
Europe
• In Germany, the Phenol Price Index rose by 6.78% quarter-over-quarter, driven by domestic supply tightening and logistical constraints.
• The average Phenol price for the quarter was approximately USD 923.33/MT, based on FD Hamburg assessments.
• Phenol Spot Price displayed intramonth stability as port congestion and discipline limited prompt transactional volumes.
• Phenol Price Forecast remains cautiously constructive with marginal upside expected if supply disruptions persist regionally.
• Phenol Production Cost Trend stayed subdued as benzene feedstock softened and utilities costs were stable.
• Phenol Demand Outlook looks tepid as BPA and resin buyers delayed purchases, maintaining hand-to-mouth procurement.
• High inventories and competitive imports pressured the Phenol Price Index despite intermittent recent production curtailments.
• Logistics bottlenecks amplified short-term tightness and shaped regional Phenol Spot Price movements during the quarter.
Why did the price of Phenol change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Permanent Gladbeck closure and selective plant outages reduced available regional supply, tightening immediate merchant availability.
• Abundant benzene flows and subdued downstream consumption limited buyers' willingness to cover requirements, capping gains.
• Port congestion, rail disruptions and labour shortages raised logistical costs delaying deliveries, influencing spot pricing.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The average North American Phenol Price Index stood at USD 1040/MT, FOB Louisiana during Q2 2025, a decline of 9% from Q1 2025, with a trend of mixed pricing—early-quarter decrease, mid-quarter recovery, and late-quarter stabilization.
• The downward price movement was initially catalyzed by muted market sentiment, weak downstream demand by construction and automotive industries, and cautious buying behavior owing to recently levied tariffs.
• In April, excess supply and sluggish offtake by resin and plywood producers forced sellers to trim quotations to spur demand, and prices fell.
• The Phenol Demand Outlook improved modestly by mid-May as buyers responded to rising feedstock benzene costs, increased freight rates, and clearer downstream signals from infrastructure and auto segments.
• The Phenol Production Cost Trend remained relatively steady throughout the quarter, with early cost relief from low benzene values later offset by higher energy and feedstock prices by June.
• By the end of June, stable production, ample inventory levels, and consistent downstream offtake-maintained price stability at USD 1040/MT, despite subdued export activity to China, India, and Canada.
• The Phenol Price Forecast for July 2025 indicates an upward trend, supported by stronger benzene contract settlements, resilient demand from adhesives and phenolic resin industries, and potential Gulf Coast logistical constraints tied to seasonal shipping congestion.
Europe
• Phenol Price Index averaged USD 845/MT, FD Hamburg in Q2 2025, marking a sharp 18% decline from Q1 2025’s average of USD 1030/MT, with the quarter showing a volatile trend: early bearishness, mid-quarter recovery, and a soft close.
• The Phenol Price Index fell sharply in early April due to excess supply, weak downstream offtake from automotive and construction sectors, and lower benzene costs, leading to bearish sentiment across the German market.
• Mid-April to late May showed intermittent price rebounds driven by tightened inventories, production cutbacks, and a brief demand uptick from laminates and phenolic resin applications, but these gains lacked strong momentum.
• The Phenol Production Cost Trend remained volatile as benzene prices fluctuated; rising energy and crude oil costs in late June briefly pushed margins up, but these were offset by weakening demand fundamentals.
• The Phenol Demand Outlook remained fragile, with construction and automotive industries struggling due to high interest rates, labor shortages, and soft passenger vehicle sales in Germany and France.
• Late June saw a supply-driven bounce in the Phenol Price Index, fueled by Ineos Phenol's shutdown at its Gladbeck facility (650,000 MT/year), which triggered bullish sentiment despite weak downstream pull.
• Overall market sentiment was undercut by tariff uncertainties, sluggish order flows, and a cautious procurement environment, leading buyers to limit forward purchases and operate at spot-level only.
• The Phenol Price Forecast for July 2025 suggests renewed downward pressure as demand conditions remain weak and recent supply shocks begin to ease. A return of Chinese-origin imports and normalization of stock levels may pull the Phenol Price Index lower amid reduced trade activity and softer benzene costs.
APAC
• The Phenol Price Index in APAC averaged USD 826/MT, CFR Qingdao in Q2 2025, reflecting a 6.5% decline from Q1 2025, with a mixed quarterly trend marked by an early sharp decline and gradual recovery by late June.
• The Phenol Price fell significantly in April and early May due to high inventory levels, ample imports from Japan and South Korea, and subdued downstream demand from plastics, automotive, and construction sectors.
• Weak Phenol Demand Outlook was shaped by sluggish real estate activity, limited infrastructure spending, and trade tension-induced buyer caution, particularly amid US–China tariff uncertainties.
• By mid-to-late Q2, the market showed signs of stabilization, as export volumes normalized, benzene feedstock prices increased, and automotive sales, especially NEVs, supported resin demand.
• The Phenol Production Cost Trend remained mostly steady throughout the quarter, with falling freight rates in April–May offsetting rising benzene values seen in June.
• Despite temporary bullish sentiment driven by tighter benzene and maintenance turnarounds, oversupply and macroeconomic caution capped price recovery, limiting upward momentum.
• The Phenol Price Forecast for July 2025 indicates a downward correction, driven by weakening crude oil and benzene prices, post-holiday demand tapering, and continued macroeconomic uncertainty, reinforcing the cautious procurement stance of Chinese buyers.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the price trend for Phenol in the North American region consistently demonstrated a bullish outlook. Throughout January, the combination of severe winter storms and disruptions in freight transportation created notable supply chain bottlenecks, prompting a significant price increase. Concurrently, rising feedstock Benzene prices escalated production costs, reinforcing price pressures.
In February, Phenol prices surged further. Continued supply tightness, exacerbated by low stock levels and heightened sensitivity to Benzene price fluctuations, contributed to the robust demand for Phenol. Buyers maintained steady purchasing habits, undeterred by rising costs, which allowed sellers to elevate price quotations for February deliveries.
By March, the strengthening construction sector, driven by an increase in construction spending, bolstered Phenol demand, especially in light of improved single-family homebuilding. However, the market confronted challenges, notably increased tariffs on essential imports like lumber, which could potentially impact overall project budgets and demand. Despite these challenges, the demand for Phenol remained resilient, leading to a sustained bullish price trend throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the price trend for Phenol in the European market experienced notable fluctuations. January began with a significant price spike, driven by increased crude oil and benzene costs, despite moderate demand. The upward pressure from production expenses outweighed the lackluster consumption, pushing prices higher.
February saw a continuation of this bullish trend, with a further rise in Phenol prices due to tightening supply amidst steady downstream demand. Limited availability and optimistic market sentiment fostered a competitive environment, prompting manufacturers to adjust prices upwards in response to strong buying inquiries and rising upstream energy costs.
However, March turned bearish, as Phenol prices dipped significantly. This decline was attributed to stagnant demand and rising inventory levels, primarily due to oversupply and slowing consumption in key sectors like construction. Efforts by producers to balance output against a backdrop of excess supply only exacerbated price reductions as they sought to improve market liquidity.
Overall, the quarterly trend reflected a volatile market characterized by initial price increases followed by a decline, highlighting ongoing challenges in demand recovery and production dynamics.
APAC
In Q1 2025, the Phenol market in the APAC region experienced significant volatility, characterized by a shift from initial bearish conditions to a bullish trend by March. January began with declining prices driven by weak demand from the construction sector and a prevailing destocking phase. With high inventory levels and limited export opportunities, buyers exhibited caution, leading to subdued trading activity.
In February, the market showed signs of recovery with prices increasing significantly. Tightening supply due to plant shutdowns and improved industrial activity after the Spring Festival contributed to this upward trend. The rise in China's Manufacturing PMI indicated a stabilizing economy, bolstering demand for Phenol, particularly from the construction sector, where phenolic resins were vital.
By March, Phenol prices surged further as supply constraints intensified. Producers implemented price hikes amidst growing concerns over supply limitations and increased raw material costs. The construction sector, while recovering remained cautious, with optimistic government policies fostering gradual market confidence. Overall, the quarterly trend indicated potential for future demand growth as economic conditions stabilize.
