For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The fourth quarter of 2024 brought a drop in prices for the North American Phenol market, particularly in USA, was primarily driven by weak downstream demand, a plentiful supply, and the impact of seasonal factors. A consistent downward pressure on prices marked the quarter. October saw prices fall due to weak downstream demand from construction and automotive sectors, despite lower benzene costs. November continued the decline, influenced by the winter slowdown, destocking, and high operating rates leading to oversupply. December saw prices remain stagnant at lower levels due to persistent weak demand and abundant supply.
The Phenol market saw weak demand from construction, automotive, and polymer sectors (polystyrene). High operating rates in November created oversupply, while December saw stagnant prices at lower levels due to abundant supply and continued weak demand. Lower benzene costs offered some initial relief in October but were insufficient to offset the overall demand slump. Seasonal slowdowns further reduced consumption in the later part of the quarter. Economic headwinds, including labor shortages and cautious buyer behavior, also contributed to the negative market conditions.
Market participants faced challenges from weak demand, price erosion, and managing excess inventory. The combination of seasonal slowdowns and persistent demand weakness created significant headwinds. Maintaining profitability amidst low prices and high operating rates proved difficult. In nutshell, the US phenol market experienced a downturn in the final quarter of 2024, concluding with bearish market sentiment. The quarter-ending price for Phenol FOB Louisiana stood at USD 1092/MT.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Phenol market in the APAC region, specifically China, saw prices decline due to weakened downstream demand, an abundant supply, and seasonal influences. October saw prices decline due to weak construction and automotive demand, despite lower benzene costs. November continued the downward trend, influenced by the winter slowdown, destocking activities, and reduced operating rates by manufacturers. December saw prices remain stagnant at lower levels due to weak demand and reliance on existing inventories. Ample supply, stemming from reduced operating rates and plant maintenance, further pressured prices. While lower benzene costs in October initially offered some relief, this was insufficient to offset weak demand. Destocking activities by manufacturers added to the downward pressure. Although October saw a slight construction sector recovery, overall demand remained weak, resulting in a bearish market outlook for the quarter. Market participants faced challenges from weak demand, price erosion, and managing excess inventory. The combination of seasonal slowdowns and persistent demand weakness created significant headwinds. China's phenol market concluded Q4 2024 with a bearish note. The quarter-ending price for Phenol CFR Qingdao stood at USD 889/MT.
Europe
Q4 2024 was marked by a bearish trend in the European Phenol market, specifically in Germany, with falling prices resulting from subdued downstream demand, sufficient supply, and seasonal factors. A bearish trend prevailed throughout the quarter. October saw prices fall due to reduced demand from construction and automotive sectors. November saw prices remain stagnant at lower levels despite declining benzene prices, due to existing stockpiles. December witnessed further price reductions due to lower benzene costs, abundant supply, and sluggish year-end demand.
Germany’s Phenol market saw weak demand from construction and polyester sectors, reflecting broader Eurozone economic uncertainty. Ample supply, stemming from readily available benzene and smooth domestic production, further pressured prices. Lower benzene costs, especially in December, exacerbated the downward trend. Existing stockpiles in November initially buffered prices from feedstock cost fluctuations, but this effect was temporary. Market participants faced challenges from weak demand, price erosion, and managing inventory levels. The combination of seasonal slowdowns and persistent demand weakness created significant headwinds for profitability. A bearish trend characterized the European Phenol market in Q4 2024, with both prices and demand experiencing a decline. The quarter-ending price for Phenol FD Hamburg stood at USD 1080/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American Phenol market experienced a decline in prices during the third quarter of 2024, with the United States witnessing the most significant changes. Several factors contributed to this downward trend.
Insufficient demand from downstream industries, including construction and automotive, played a crucial role in the price decline. This muted consumption led to an oversupply of finished Phenol products, further pushing prices down.
The energy sector also had an impact on pricing, as falling crude oil prices influenced production costs. Reduced manufacturing activity and a cautious approach from buyers amidst uncertain demand outlooks further challenged the market.Overall, the combination of weak demand, oversupply, and factors related to the energy sector contributed to the decline in Phenol prices in North America during the third quarter of 2024.
In the USA specifically, Phenol prices exhibited a decreasing trend throughout the quarter. Comparing the previous quarter in 2024, prices dropped by 2%. Notably, there was a significant -3% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Phenol FOB Louisiana in the USA settled at USD 1080/MT, reflecting the prevailing decreasing pricing environment.
APAC
The Phenol market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region witnessed a gradual decline in prices during the third quarter of 2024. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. Weak demand from downstream industries, particularly Bisphenol A, played a significant role in the price decrease. Coupled with steady supplies of Phenol, this imbalance between supply and demand led to a cautious and stable pricing environment. The availability of sufficient Benzene to meet production needs further contributed to the decline in prices. As demand from downstream industries remained subdued, the surplus supply of Phenol created downward pressure on the market. However, Japan stood out with the most significant price changes during this period. Despite a slight 2% increase from the previous quarter in 2024, the second half of the quarter recorded a 3% decrease, indicating a fluctuating market. The latest quarter-ending price for Phenol FOB-Osaka in Japan settled at USD 900/MT, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in pricing. The quarter was marked by a negative pricing environment, with market conditions leaning towards stability despite minor fluctuations.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Phenol market in Europe experienced a consistent decline in prices, driven by several key factors. Weak demand from downstream industries, particularly the construction and automotive sectors, played a significant role in the downward pricing trend. The ample availability of finished Phenol stock further contributed to the price stability. The resumption of production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico post-Hurricane Francine has led to an increase in the supply of crude oil, which has put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Lower crude oil prices have led to lower Phenol prices. Additionally, an increase in the supply of benzene has led to lower Phenol prices. The overall trend in the market indicated a bearish sentiment, with supply being moderate and demand remaining low to moderate. In the Netherlands specifically, Phenol prices saw the most significant changes in the region. With a -10% change from the previous quarter in 2024, the market experienced a notable decline. The -13% change between the first and second half of the quarter further emphasized the downward trajectory. The quarter-ending price of Phenol FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands was settled at USD 1225/MT, reflecting the prevailing negative sentiment in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Phenol market in the North America region experienced a notable uptrend, driven by several significant factors. The primary catalyst for the price increase was a surge in manufacturing costs, influenced by bullish crude oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintained a robust growth outlook for global oil demand, further elevating crude prices. Anticipated higher fuel demand during the summer months also contributed to this trend. Additionally, inquiries from downstream construction industries improved, albeit gradually, supporting the upward shift in Phenol prices.
Focusing on the USA, the market saw the most substantial price changes. Overall trends indicated a stable yet increasing sentiment, influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations and a complex interplay of supply chain dynamics. Furthermore, escalating attacks in the Red Sea have forced shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, increasing voyage times and freight rates.
However, the manufacturing sector faced pressure from high borrowing costs due to the Federal Reserve's efforts to manage inflation, impacting overall demand for Phenol. Despite these challenges, manufacturers maintained adequate production activities, balancing supply and demand effectively. The quarter concluded with Phenol DEL Louisiana prices at USD 1095/MT, indicating a positive pricing environment driven by controlled supply and consistent demand from the construction sector. The overall sentiment in the Phenol market remained predominantly stable, with an underlying positive trend.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Phenol market in the APAC region exhibited a marked upward trajectory, driven primarily by constrained supply, heightened demand from key downstream sectors, and rising crude oil prices. Limited production rates and trade pressures further exacerbated the supply shortage, while geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East propelled crude oil prices closer to $82 per barrel, impacting raw material costs and, subsequently, Phenol prices. The consistency in cautious buying behavior, characterized by smaller orders, reflected market participants' reluctance to chase high prices, yet the overall trading volume witnessed substantial support from demand recovery post-festivities and the steady climb in production inputs. Focusing on Japan, the country experienced the most significant price fluctuations within the region. Seasonal demand shifts and the strategic decisions of manufacturers to incrementally raise prices were pivotal. Furthermore, Japanese manufacturing firms have been reorganizing their petrochemical operations in response to average demand in Japan and rising production levels in China. As of the latest quarter, the closing price of Phenol stood at USD 940/MT FOB-Osaka. This reflects a stable yet positive pricing environment, with sustained upward momentum linked to a combination of supply constraints, rising raw material costs, and strategic market positioning by manufacturers. The overall sentiment in Q2 2024 for the APAC region was decisively positive, driven by intricate interplay between supply chain challenges and robust demand from downstream industries.
Europe
In Q2 2024, Phenol pricing in the Europe region has exhibited a varied trend, driven by a confluence of factors that have substantially influenced market prices. In early Q2, the demand from the downstream Bisphenol A industries has been observed to be lackluster, as a result, the procurement of upstream Phenol has decreased. As a result, the manufacturers have reduced their offers. On the upstream front, the cost support from Benzene has also been limited to strengthen the pricing dynamics of Phenol. Furthermore, the downstream production facilities have been operating at slightly reduced rates as there was already enough availability of the finished stocks to meet the demand from the terminal markets. However, with an increase in freight rates and Crude Oil prices, the prices of Phenol have improved in the second half of the Q2 2024. Focusing exclusively on Germany, the market has seen the most significant price changes within the region. The seasonality trends, coupled with the summer peak in crude oil demand, have bolstered the upward momentum in Phenol prices. The correlation in price changes can be observed with an approximately 5% uptick from the previous quarter in 2024, reflecting bullish market dynamics. The latest quarter-ending price of Phenol FD Hamburg in Germany was USD 1550/MT, encapsulating the consistent increase throughout Q2. The increasing prices context for Phenol in Europe during this quarter reflects a predominantly positive pricing environment, influenced by heightened raw material costs and global supply-side pressures. The market's resilience amidst these challenges indicates a strong pricing trajectory, particularly in Germany, which continues to lead the region in price volatility and increments.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American region experienced increasing prices for Phenol. Various factors influenced market prices during this period. One significant factor was the rising prices of upstream Benzene, which resulted in higher manufacturing costs for Phenol. Additionally, concerns about crude oil supply, due to production cuts by OPEC+ nations, posed challenges for the downstream petrochemical industry. The reduced production rates of manufacturing firms also led to a lower availability of finished goods, causing manufacturers to raise their prices. On the demand side, inquiries from the downstream Bisphenol A industries improved, supporting the upward trend in Phenol prices.
However, there were a few disruptions that affected the market. INEOS Phenol's plant in Theodore, Alabama faced a force majeure event due to freezing weather, resulting in a disruption in production from January 16 to January 25. Similarly, Shell Chemicals' plant in Deer Park, Texas experienced an unforeseen outage, leading to a disruption in production from January 1 to January 31. Additionally, Shell Chemicals' plant in Deer Park, Texas experienced another disruption in February due to unforeseen outages, resulting in reduced production from February 1 to February 24.
The USA, in particular, witnessed significant price changes during Q1 2024. The market sentiment for Phenol remained bullish, with prices increasing by 23% compared to the previous quarter. There was a noticeable price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, with a decrease of 15% in the latter half. The quarter-ending price for Phenol in the USA was recorded at USD 1050 per ton.
APAC
Phenol prices in the APAC region for Q1 2024 have experienced a decreasing trend. Several factors have influenced market prices during this quarter. Overall, the market has been characterized by stable to negative sentiment, with prices showing a downward trajectory. In Japan specifically, the price changes have been the most significant. The quarter started with a 10% decrease compared to the previous quarter in 2024. This drop can be attributed to subdued demand from downstream industries, particularly in the construction sector. Additionally, the Chinese market has also contributed to the negative sentiment, with a lack of demand and reduced procurement activities due to the Spring Festival Holidays. Looking at the year-on-year comparison, there has been a significant decline in prices, with a decrease of 16%. This can be attributed to the overall economic slowdown in the region. The market has faced challenges such as weak consumer spending and rising inflationary pressures. The latest quarter-ending price for Phenol FOB-Osaka in Japan was recorded at USD 880/MT. This reflects the overall decreasing sentiment in the market. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter reinforces the negative trend, with prices showing a 10% decrease.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 has seen a significant increase in Phenol prices in the European region. The market has been influenced by several factors that have contributed to the upward trend in prices. These factors include rising prices of upstream Benzene, which have led to higher manufacturing costs for Phenol. Additionally, concerns about the supply of Crude Oil, due to production cuts by OPEC+ nations, have created challenges for the downstream petrochemical industry. Reduced production rates among manufacturing firms have also resulted in a relatively lower availability of finished goods, further driving up prices. In Belgium, Phenol prices have seen the maximum price changes in the region. The market has experienced a bullish trend, with prices increasing steadily throughout the quarter. This can be attributed to higher prices of upstream Benzene, which have raised manufacturing costs for Phenol. Overall, the first quarter of 2024 has been positive for Phenol pricing in Europe. The quarter has seen an 8% increase in prices compared to the same quarter last year. In terms of quarterly changes, prices have risen by 34% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. The price increase between the first and second half of the quarter has been recorded at 24%. The quarter-ending price for Phenol FD Antwerp in Belgium is USD 1630/MT. In summary, the Phenol market in Europe has experienced a bullish trend in the first quarter of 2024, with prices steadily increasing. Factors such as higher upstream costs, reduced production rates, and limited availability of finished goods have contributed to the upward price movement.
