For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Palm Kernel Oil Price Index fell by 1.52% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting ample imported supply.
• The average Palm Kernel Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1815.00/MT, reflecting import-dependent dynamics.
• Palm Kernel Oil Spot Price fluctuated intramonth, reflecting seasonal origin offers, logistics, and importer allocation decisions.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Forecast suggests near-term gains as origin supply tightens and RSPO premiums rise.
• Palm Kernel Oil Production Cost Trend shows pressure from labour shortages despite stable energy processing costs.
• Palm Kernel Oil Demand Outlook remains firm from confectionery, oleochemical and personal-care sectors amid restocking.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Index tightened as Sumatra floods and Malaysian labour shortages limited exports.
• Inventories and export demand pressured offers, while substitution into soybean and coconut oils pressured prices.
Why did the price of Palm Kernel Oil change in December 2025 in North America?
• Origin supply increases from Malaysia and Indonesia eased U.S. import tightness, pressuring CIF offers downward.
• Flooding and labour shortages in Sumatra and Malaysia tightened origins, supporting modest origin price increases.
• U.S. demand stayed steady, but substitution and bloated inventories capped Palm Kernel Oil price advances.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Palm Kernel Oil Price Index fell by 3.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting eased export flows.
• The average Palm Kernel Oil price for the quarter was USD 1798.67/MT at Dumai FOB.
• Palm Kernel Oil Spot Price weakened; ample port stocks and uninterrupted crushing kept supplies plentiful.
• Palm Kernel Oil Production Cost Trend remained subdued with energy easing, preserving tight processing margins.
• Palm Kernel Oil Demand Outlook was muted as oleochemical and confectionery buyers reduced discretionary purchases.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Forecast indicates limited upside if lauric spreads and export demand improve.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Index tracked seasonal softness amid comfortable inventories, logistics and buyer caution.
• Downside risks include rival origin competitiveness, ringgit weakness and freight spreads constraining near-term recovery potential
Why did the price of Palm Kernel Oil change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Supply normalization after November loading rush increased export availability, lifting downward pressure on December quotes.
• Persistent ample inventories, uninterrupted plant operations maintained supply, undermining spot buying, softening Price Index.
• Muting lauric spreads versus coconut oil reduced discretionary purchases from oleochemical and confectionery December.
Europe
• In the Netherlands, the Palm Kernel Oil Price Index fell 1.34% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting ample supply.
• The average Palm Kernel Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1843.33/MT CFR Rotterdam.
• Rotterdam Palm Kernel Oil Spot Price remained subdued as ample inbound cargoes limited prompt-loading premiums.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Index showed December resilience from origin levy changes and confectionery demand.
• Palm Kernel Oil Production Cost Trend rose as natural-gas and logistics costs increased refining charges.
• Palm Kernel Oil Demand Outlook remains cautious with processors delaying purchases amid persistently ample inventories.
• Inventory accumulation at Rotterdam and steady exports limited upside, pressuring Palm Kernel Oil Spot Price.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Forecast signals recovery as EUDR sourcing and holiday buying tighten supply.
Why did the price of Palm Kernel Oil change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Indonesian levy increases and firmer origin FOB offers lifted CIF Rotterdam quotations despite ample inbound tonnage.
• Lower Rhine water levels and slightly higher energy and logistics costs increased onshore refining and distribution expenses.
• Softer downstream buying and negative futures cues constrained upside even as EUDR compliance encouraged selective cargo purchases.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Palm Kernel Oil Price Index rose by 1.69% quarter-over-quarter, driven by tighter supplies for Q3.
• The average Palm Kernel Oil price for the quarter was USD 1843 per metric ton, in Q3 globally today.
• Palm Kernel Oil Spot Price strengthened on Southeast Asia supply constraints and higher freight costs for U.S. buyers.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Forecast remains constructive amid steady downstream demand, with restocking extending into Q4 globally today.
• Palm Kernel Oil Production Cost Trend edged higher due to freight, energy, and input costs across sectors.
• Palm Kernel Oil Demand Outlook remains robust in oleochemicals and food sectors, supporting price resilience regionally today in NA.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Index lifted as Southeast Asian supply remained tight, while demand steadied for processors and traders.
• External trade dynamics and logistics influence import costs and PKO availability across Gulf and Atlantic ports in priority markets.
• The quarter showed price firmness supported by tight regional supplies and steady demand, seasonal timing for buyers globally today.
Why did the price of Palm Kernel Oil change in September 2025 in USA?
• SEA disruptions constrained exports.
• Rising freight costs supported prices.
• Seasonal restocking boosted demand.
APAC
• In Indonesia, the Palm Kernel Oil Price Index rose by 13.31% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting bullish momentum amid tightening supply.
• The average Palm Kernel Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1872.67/MT.
• Palm Kernel Oil Spot Price remained firm amid tight supply and steady regional demand across Southeast Asia and Japan.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Forecast suggests continued firmness due to robust exports and resilient biodiesel and edible oil demand.
• Palm Kernel Oil Production Cost Trend shows higher processing costs and tighter feedstock margins amid slowing FFB yields.
• Palm Kernel Oil Demand Outlook remains supportive from oleochemical, food and biodiesel sectors amid steady regional activity.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Index signals a sustained uptrend across APAC markets driven by supply tightness and demand strength.
Why did the price of Palm Kernel Oil change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Tighter PKO supply from Indonesia due to harvest constraints and export allocation limits supported higher prices in Sep.
• Sustained downstream demand from oleochemicals, foods, and biodiesel, plus stable regional logistics, kept buyers engaged.
• Policy measures like export duty realignments and currency movements contributed to continued price support through Q3.
Europe
• In the Netherlands, the Palm Kernel Oil Price Index rose by 1.74% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, reflecting bullish momentum.
• The average Palm Kernel Oil price for the quarter was approximately USD 1868.33/MT.
• Palm Kernel Oil Spot Price remained elevated on supply tightness and steady downstream demand, supported by import flows.
• Palm Kernel Oil Price Forecast supported by persistent Southeast Asia constraints and EU demand forecasts.
• Palm Kernel Oil Production Cost Trend showed incremental rise from feedstock and energy inputs, pressuring margins.
• Palm Kernel Oil Demand Outlook remains robust in oleochemicals, biodiesel, and related shipping sectors.
• Price Index volatility reflected cargo delays, freight, and regulatory cost pressures across regional hubs.
• End-user applications continue to support price levels despite seasonal shifts and substitution effects.
Why did the price of Palm Kernel Oil change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Weather disruptions in Indonesia and Malaysia reduced exports, tightening Rotterdam availability and lifting bids amid peak harvest.
• Rising downstream demand from oleochemicals and food sectors kept bids firm in Europe during Q3 2025 overall.
• Higher export levies and logistics bottlenecks raised landed costs for Europe during the quarter end Sept.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• Palm Kernel Oil spot price trends in North America showed an overall downward trajectory in Q2 2025, with an average quarter-over-quarter price decline of approximately 7.8%, ending June near USD 1695/MT. The market reflected bearish sentiment amid improved global supply and cautious demand.
• Palm Kernel Oil Production cost trends during the quarter saw gradual easing, helped by relaxing freight costs and recovering palm kernel extraction rates in Southeast Asia, lowering landed costs for U.S. importers.
• Palm Kernel Oil Demand outlook remained subdued across the quarter as key downstream industries like personal care, oleochemicals, and food processing scaled back purchasing amid inflation concerns and inventory destocking.
• Import volumes stayed steady but buyers maintained a procurement-on-demand strategy, limiting inventory buildup against a backdrop of global oversupply and cautious market sentiment.
• In June 2025, prices initially softened due to improved shipment availability and lower feedstock costs but rebounded late in the month driven by tightening export supplies from Southeast Asia and speculative buying, with spot prices at around USD 1695/MT CFR Houston.
• Freight rates on Asia-to-U.S. routes declined by 8-10% from May levels, supporting downward pressure on production and import costs.
• The market outlook for the next quarter suggests continued cautiousness with moderate price stability or mild downward adjustments, depending on global supply normalization and demand recovery pace.
• Increased upstream supply and improved refining stability in key Southeast Asian sources, particularly Malaysia and Indonesia, supported steady product availability during the quarter.
• Domestic refining operations faced minimal technical disruptions, enabling consistent output despite softening demand for fractionated derivatives like lauric acid and MCTs, affecting overall market dynamics.
• Policy watch remains on potential shifts in import tariffs and crude oil price fluctuations that could impact biofuel blending demand, an important driver of Palm Kernel Oil spot price movements in the U.S.
APAC (China)
• Palm Kernel Oil spot price in China experienced a clear downward trend in Q2 2025, with average quarter-over-quarter prices falling by roughly 13%, closing near USD 1551/MT by June-end amid oversupply and soft demand conditions.
• Palm Kernel Oil Production cost trends in the quarter reflected competitive pricing arising from robust export volumes from Indonesia and Malaysia, supported by favorable weather and strong harvesting output.
• Palm Kernel Oil Demand outlook exhibited weakness, especially in oleochemical, personal care, and food processing sectors, with cautious buying and inventory drawdowns prevailing amid economic uncertainties.
• June 2025 price behavior showed a modest recovery late in the month, driven by supply tightening and renewed oleochemical demand, with prices moving upward after weeks of subdued activity.
• Logistical restraints and currency movements earlier in the quarter influenced import landed costs, though these pressures eased by late June.
• Market participants generally preferred hand-to-mouth purchasing with limited speculative activity, maintaining downward pressure on overall Palm Kernel Oil spot price levels.
• Forward-looking forecasts indicate the potential for continued price softness unless demand picks up significantly or supply disruptions emerge in producer countries.
• Seasonal Palm Kernel Oil demand dipped post-spring holidays, especially impacting downstream food and personal care product makers, contributing to subdued consumption.
• Inventory accumulation at coastal ports remained high through the quarter, intensifying supply pressure on prices.
• Regulatory and sustainability frameworks in supplier countries continue to influence production cost trends and supply strategies, shaping medium-term market dynamics.
Europe (Germany following APAC-China overall downward trend)
• Germany’s Palm Kernel Oil market followed the APAC-China downward quarterly trend in Q2 2025, with average quarter-over-quarter price declines like those in China, and spot prices finishing the quarter at softer levels.
• Palm Kernel Oil Production cost trends within Europe reflected a combination of benefits from stable global supply and rising input expenses related to energy and transportation, which tempered cost reductions.
• Palm Kernel Oil Demand outlook remained cautious as inflationary pressures and competition from alternative oils restrained procurement from food manufacturers and industrial end-users.
• June 2025 market conditions showed marked price softness paralleling global oversupply; German buyers reduced inventories and deferred purchases amid uncertain economic recovery signals.
• Palm Kernel Oil Supply chain improvements enhanced physical availability of Palm Kernel Oil, but competitive seller tactics and careful buyer positioning kept price levels under downward pressure.
• Palm Kernel Oil Forecasts for the next quarter predict continued price softness or stabilization at subdued levels, influenced by economic developments across key industrial sectors.
• European sustainability regulations and import duties shaped sourcing preferences, prompting greater attention to certified sustainable Palm Kernel Oil and influencing contractual terms.
• Ongoing trade uncertainties related to Brexit introduced logistical challenges affecting delivery schedules and pricing strategies among EU and UK market participants.
• Currency exchange volatility, notably fluctuating in the euro-dollar rate, remained a critical factor in import pricing and market sentiment.
• Environmental compliance and consumer demand for sustainable products sustained strategic emphasis within supply chains, affecting cost structures and pricing negotiations.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
In Q1 2025, the Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) market in North America experienced a gradual transition from initial supply constraints to a more balanced environment. At the beginning of the quarter, low inventory levels and limited shipments from major producing nations created upward pressure on prices. However, as the quarter progressed, revised production forecasts from key exporters like Malaysia and Indonesia eased earlier concerns. The improved supply outlook helped stabilize the market, while demand-side factors remained sluggish, leading to a generally soft pricing environment.
Weak export demand, particularly from the food and oleochemical sectors, limited price momentum. Downstream buyers showed restraint amid intensified competition from alternative vegetable oils such as soybean and sunflower oils. Additionally, a decline in biofuel blending demand—linked to lower crude oil prices—further weighed on PKO consumption. Currency fluctuations and broad global economic uncertainty also dampened import interest, prompting traders to focus on clearing existing stockpiles rather than pursuing fresh imports. This contributed to a month-to-month stagnation in prices despite supply-side improvements.
Overall, the North American PKO market in Q1 2025 exhibited a volatile yet subdued trend. Prices remained relatively flat across the quarter, reflecting a market caught between easing supply pressures and persistently weak demand fundamentals. The near-term outlook remains stable to slightly bearish, with future trends hinging on global production dynamics and end-user recovery.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2025, Malaysian Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) prices exhibited significant volatility, marked by an overall bearish trend. January began with notable price declines due to oversupply, weak downstream demand, and rising competition from cheaper edible oils like soybean and sunflower oil. Export volumes fell sharply as international buyers, particularly from the Netherlands and China, shifted preferences. The strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and declining crude oil prices further weakened global competitiveness and biodiesel-related demand.
February showed a transitional phase. Prices remained under pressure in the first half, driven by persistent inventory buildup and muted demand. However, a recovery emerged in the latter half due to tighter supplies, improved global market sentiment, and the temporary suspension of operations by FGV Holdings Berhad. This supply disruption triggered a short-term rally, as international buyers resumed procurement and crude palm oil prices strengthened in tandem, offering brief relief to the PKO market.
In March, the market once again softened due to weak international demand and elevated inventories. Although demand from African and Middle Eastern markets offered some support, it wasn’t enough to counterbalance declining interest from key importers. By late March, the market stabilized slightly, but overall, Q1 ended with a cautious, bearish tone.
Europe
During Q1 2025, Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) prices in the Netherlands displayed a predominantly downward trend with intermittent recoveries driven by shifting supply-demand dynamics and external market influences. In January, prices dropped sharply due to weak downstream demand from food, cosmetics, and oleochemical sectors, exacerbated by high inventories and reduced industrial activity. Regulatory scrutiny on palm oil derivatives and a depreciating euro further strained the market. However, in the final week, a slight rebound emerged as Malaysian PKO prices rose and the euro appreciated against the dollar, improving import conditions.
In February, PKO prices remained volatile, initially soft due to ample availability and subdued industrial demand. Mid-month, prices began to rise as weather-related disruptions in producing countries led to tighter supply. Although demand in pharmaceutical and oleochemical sectors stayed seasonally low, modest recovery in food and cosmetics sectors supported a gradual rebound. Traders responded to reduced availability with higher quotations, pushing prices to around USD 1932/MT CFR Rotterdam by month-end, though overall sentiment stayed cautious due to lingering logistical and demand uncertainties.
March witnessed renewed downward pressure, with the market impacted by persistent oversupply, soft demand, and tightening EU regulations on deforestation-linked commodities. The euro’s continued depreciation inflated import costs, limiting bulk purchases. Despite a brief mid-month recovery, the quarter concluded with a bearish tone, as market participants favored conservative, just-in-time buying strategies amid ongoing supply-demand imbalance.
