For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region experienced a notable uptrend in Nitrogen pricing, with the USA particularly witnessing significant price increases. The surge in prices can be attributed to robust domestic and international demand, driven by various sectors such as agriculture. Strong inquiries from downstream industries, along with elevated procurement activities globally, created a supply-demand imbalance, leading to tightened supply chains and low inventory levels. This imbalance, coupled with factors like port congestion and potential hurricane-related disruptions, further propelled prices upwards.
Moreover, the positive market sentiment was bolstered by steady economic growth, reflected in increased nitrogen consumption across different sectors. Despite some disruptions in the manufacturing sector, the overall demand remained high, supported by factors like favorable affordability and the need for crop inputs ahead of the fall application season.
Overall, the pricing environment for Nitrogen in the USA in Q3 2024 has been bullish, with prices steadily increasing throughout the quarter and prices rise by 7.9% from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price of USD 250/MT of Nitrogen 28% Fertilizer FOB Illinois signifies the ongoing upward trend in pricing dynamics.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 in the APAC region witnessed a notable surge in Nitrogen prices, with India experiencing the most significant price changes. Several factors contributed to this uptrend, including robust domestic and international demand, supply chain disruptions, high import costs, and increased energy prices. The market was further influenced by disruptions at key manufacturing plants, port congestions, and uncertainties in the Middle East, leading to a supply-demand imbalance. India, in particular, saw prices rise by 9% from the previous quarter and Compared to the same quarter in 2023, prices showed a significant 37% increase, reflecting the overall bullish trend in the region. Seasonal agricultural activities and strong industrial inquiries also played a crucial role in driving prices higher. The correlation between price changes throughout the quarter was evident, with a modest increase observed between the first and second half. As the quarter concluded, the price for Liquid Nitrogen Ex-Taloja in India reached USD 465/MT, marking a continued positive pricing environment amidst evolving market dynamics.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Nitrogen market experienced a significant uptrend in pricing, with the Netherlands particularly witnessing substantial price increases. This surge in prices can be attributed to robust domestic and international demand, driven by key sectors such as agriculture, which saw an uptick in nitrogen consumption. Strong inquiries from downstream industries, along with elevated global procurement activities, led to a supply-demand imbalance, tightening supply chains and resulting in low inventory levels. Factors like port congestion and flood-related disruptions further exacerbated the supply constraints, pushing prices higher. Moreover, the positive market sentiment was bolstered by steady economic growth, which was reflected in increased nitrogen consumption across multiple sectors. On the supply side, the nitrogen market continued to experience tightness. Despite some disruptions in the manufacturing sector, demand remained high, supported by favorable affordability and the need for crop inputs ahead of the fall application season. Overall, the pricing environment for nitrogen in the Netherlands during Q3 2024 remained bullish, with prices steadily rising throughout the quarter, registering a significant increase from the previous quarter's levels.
MEA
In Q3 2024, nitrogen prices in Congo saw a substantial 41% increase from the previous quarter, experiencing a significant surge throughout the period. This sharp rise was primarily attributed to high import costs and persistently low inventory levels. Congo’s reliance on imports to meet its nitrogen fertilizer demand left the market vulnerable to global price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions. With limited domestic production capacity and difficulties in securing affordable imports, the nitrogen market in the country tightened considerably, leading to price hikes across the board. Import prices surged due to rising global demand, and shipments from major producers were both limited and costly, further straining the local market. The agricultural sector, which heavily depends on nitrogen fertilizers for crop production, continued to drive demand, even as rising costs created financial challenges for buyers. Smallholder farmers and larger agricultural operations alike struggled with the increased prices, leading to concerns over the affordability of fertilizers and the potential impact on production costs and food security. While demand remained steady, the combination of constrained supply and elevated procurement activities contributed to the bullish pricing environment in Congo, with significant upward pressure on prices expected to continue into the next quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Nitrogen market in North America demonstrated a robust upward trajectory, primarily driven by several key factors. The quarter saw escalating corn and natural gas prices, which directly influenced nitrogen production costs. High energy prices compounded by geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East conflict, further strained supply chains, resulting in increased nitrogen fertilizer costs. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore exacerbated logistical challenges, significantly impacting trade activities and port operations, thereby constraining supply and inflating prices.
Focusing on the USA, the market experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations. The agricultural sector's increased demand, spurred by favorable crop prices and enhanced farm incomes, bolstered nitrogen purchases. Additionally, the resurgence in the automobile market, marked by a 7.6% month-on-month increase in vehicle sales, spurred demand in the metallurgy and metal processing industries. Seasonality also played a role, with Memorial Day holiday incentives further amplifying procurement activities.
The overall trend in Q2 was bullish, characterized by a consistent upward momentum in prices. Despite a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3%, the nitrogen market rebounded strongly with a notable 5% price increase from the first to the second half of the quarter. The pricing environment was decidedly positive, reflecting heightened market optimism and strong demand. Conclusively, the quarter ended with nitrogen prices at USD 232/MT FOB Illinois, underscoring the persistent upward trend and positive sentiment in the market.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the nitrogen market in the APAC region has experienced a distinctly bullish trend, driven by several influential factors. Elevated production costs, primarily due to rising natural gas prices, have significantly impacted nitrogen prices. Concurrently, geopolitical tensions and port congestion have exacerbated supply chain disruptions, further straining the market.
Focusing on India, the country has witnessed the most pronounced price fluctuations within the APAC region. The Indian nitrogen market has been buoyed by strong demand from the agricultural sector, supported by government subsidies and robust construction activities. Seasonal variations, particularly the preparation for the kharif season, have heightened procurement activities, driving up prices. Overall, the nitrogen market in India has reflected an increasing trend, with a substantial 18% price rise from the previous quarter in 2024.
The latest quarter-ending price for Liquid Nitrogen Ex-Taloja in India stands at INR 37000/MT, reflecting a positive pricing environment. The upward trajectory in nitrogen prices has been predominantly due to heightened demand, supply constraints, and strategic governmental support, marking a favorable economic landscape within the region.
Europe
In Q2 2024, European Nitrogen prices exhibited mixed trends influenced by complex regional dynamics. Variations in supply and demand led to localized price fluctuations, with inventory levels playing a key role. Overstocking resulted in price decreases, while understocking led to increases.
Demand from agriculture, the primary consumer of Nitrogen-based fertilizers, was moderate to low due to adverse weather conditions and fluctuating crop yields. Industrial applications also experienced variable demand, adding to price variability. Natural gas prices, essential for Nitrogen production, impacted production costs and, in turn, prices.
The European ammonia market, derived from nitrogen, showed mixed trends. Stable prices from major exporters like Russia and ample domestic stock in Germany, bolstered by increased production capacity from BASF and IPP, supported market stability. However, fluctuating demand and adverse weather conditions, including windstorms and floods, led to inconsistent demand patterns across Europe.
In conclusion, the European Nitrogen market faced a mixed price trend in Q2 2024, driven by regional supply and demand disparities, inventory adjustments, and fluctuating downstream demand. The overall market reflected a complex interplay of weather conditions, economic factors, and production dynamics.
MEA
During Q2 2024, nitrogen prices in the domestic market of Congo experienced a notable rise, influenced by a combination of international and local factors. High import prices from the USA, driven by increased corn and natural gas costs, played a significant role. This period saw bullish market sentiment, prompting businesses to increase purchase quantities and inventories in anticipation of sustained demand growth.
Increased demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the USA was driven by elevated corn prices and rising natural gas costs, essential for producing synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. This demand surge influenced Congo's market, where manufacturers faced heightened production costs due to high natural gas prices. Additionally, port congestion and geopolitical disruptions exacerbated supply chain issues, further pushing prices up.
In Congo, the agricultural sector's optimism remained high due to increased farm incomes and the need to boost crop yields. The manufacturing sector also showed significant improvement, with accelerated production growth and a surge in new orders. These factors combined to create a noticeable supply-demand imbalance, reducing inventory levels and sustaining the upward price trend. Overall, the nitrogen market in India has reflected stabilized trend, with a marginal rise of 0.1% from the previous quarter in 2024.
Q2 2024 saw a substantial increase in nitrogen prices in Congo and thus latest quarter-ending price for Nitrogen CFR Matadi (Congo) stands at USD 1295/ MT, reflecting a positive pricing environment., driven by high import costs, robust domestic demand, and supply chain challenges. The market remained bullish, with low supply and high demand dynamics, reinforcing the positive market sentiment and contributing to sustained price increases.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American nitrogen market experienced a mixed pricing environment. Overall, prices were influenced by various factors, resulting in both positive and negative trends.
In the USA, nitrogen prices witnessed a decline in January and February due to weakened consumer demand, particularly from the downstream agricultural sector. This downturn was further exacerbated by an oversupply situation in regional markets, leading to a reduction in prices. The presence of elevated inventory levels also contributed to negative market sentiments and a subdued purchasing environment. However, in March, prices rebounded, driven by an anticipated increase in demand and lower production costs due to decreased energy prices.
The overall trend in the North American nitrogen market during Q1 2024 was bearish, with high supply levels and weak demand from downstream industries. The market experienced quiet trading and falling prices, with limited positive activity to boost confidence. The demand for nitrogen remained low, influenced by subdued trading activities and negative market sentiments. The latest quarter-ending price for Nitrogen 28% Fertilizer FOB Illinois in the USA was USD 232/MT.
APAC
The APAC region experienced a mixed pricing environment for Nitrogen in Q1 2024. Various factors influenced market prices during this period. Overall, the market trended positively, with some countries witnessing price increases while others saw declines.
In January, there was an oversupply of Nitrogen in the market, leading to price decreases. This oversupply, coupled with reduced demand from downstream industries, particularly in the food and agriculture sectors, and lower production costs in exporting nations, contributed to the decline in Nitrogen prices. India experienced significant price fluctuations in the Nitrogen market. However, in February and March 2024, there was a price surge, driven by heightened demand from the healthcare sector and the government's initiative to replace conventional urea with nano urea. Overall, the pricing trend for Nitrogen in India during Q1 2024 was bullish, with low supply and high demand.
Finally, the quarter-ending price for Nitrogen in India was recorded at INR 32500/MT, Ex-Taloja. Overall, the pricing environment for Nitrogen in Q1 2024 can be described as positive, with prices showing a steady rise influenced by increased demand and higher import prices.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the Europe nitrogen market experienced a mixed pricing environment. Overall, prices were influenced by various factors, resulting in both positive and negative trends.
In the Netherland, nitrogen prices witnessed a decline in January and February due to weakened consumer demand, particularly from the downstream agricultural sector. This downturn was further exacerbated by an oversupply situation in regional markets, leading to a reduction in prices. The presence of elevated inventory levels also contributed to negative market sentiments and a subdued purchasing environment. However, in March, prices rebounded, driven by an anticipated increase in demand and lower production costs due to decreased energy prices.
The overall trend in the Europe nitrogen market during Q1 2024 was bearish, with high supply levels and weak demand from downstream industries. The market experienced quiet trading and falling prices, with limited positive activity to boost confidence. The demand for nitrogen remained low, influenced by subdued trading activities and negative market sentiments in the domestic market of Europe.
Africa
In Q1 2024, the African region encountered a favorable pricing atmosphere for Nitrogen. Numerous factors played a role in shaping market prices during this timeframe. Overall, the market maintained a positive trajectory in the region.
Throughout January, nitrogen prices in Congo remained stable, indicating a balanced market environment. However, in February, there was a marginal 0.5% uptick in prices, primarily driven by elevated import prices and a slight increase in demand from the downstream food industry. Despite facing challenges such as power shortages and logistical hurdles at key infrastructure points like Transnet, the country saw encouraging developments in business activity and new sales orders during February. March witnessed a surge in nitrogen prices in Congo due to disruptions in the Red Sea region and instability in global agricultural markets. Import dependence led to higher prices, coupled with increased domestic demand. Instability in global agricultural markets, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy costs further boosted prices. Despite challenges, robust demand persisted, highlighting the interconnectedness of sectors within the chemical industry. The latest quarter-ending price for Nitrogen in the Congo was USD 1300/MT, CFR Matadi.
Prices have steadily increased throughout the quarter, reflecting a positive pricing environment. This price reflects the overall upward trend observed in the market. Overall, the pricing environment for Nitrogen in the Africa region, particularly in the Congo, has been characterized by increasing prices during Q1 2024.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the North American region, the Nitrogen market in the fourth quarter of 2023 has been influenced by several key factors. Firstly, a supply-demand imbalance has emerged, with increased demand from the automobile and electronic industries, particularly in the USA. This surge in demand has led to a drop in inventory levels, putting upward pressure on prices. Additionally, higher input costs, such as natural gas, have further contributed to the increase in Nitrogen prices.
Among the countries in the region, the USA has experienced the most significant changes in Nitrogen prices. The country's strong demand from the automotive and electronic sectors, coupled with a rebounding economy and stable interest rates, has led to an uptick in prices. However, the slow demand for fertilizer and food packaging material has tempered the price increase.
The price trend analysis for the USA during this quarter shows a correlation between increased demand and higher prices. The price of Nitrogen in the USA has seen a decrease of 27% compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, there has been a decline of 16% in prices from the previous quarter. In terms of the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, there has been a decrease of 13%.
In conclusion, the Nitrogen market in the North American region, particularly in the USA, has experienced an increase in prices due to strong demand from the automotive and electronic industries. The supply-demand imbalance and higher input costs have further contributed to the price uptick. The latest price of Nitrogen 28% Fertilizer FOB Illinois in the USA for the current quarter is USD 255/MT.
APAC
The APAC region has experienced mixed trends in nitrogen pricing during the fourth quarter of 2023 (Oct to Dec). The market has been influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, plant shutdowns, and the performance of specific countries such as India. Three key factors that have affected the nitrogen market in the APAC region are moderate to high demand from the fertilizer industry, increased production costs due to higher natural gas prices, and strong demand from sectors such as food, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and electronics. The fertilizer industry in India, in particular, has played a significant role in driving up demand for nitrogen-based fertilizer, aiming to eliminate urea imports by 2025. However, there have also been challenges such as slow demand from urea, ammonia, and other fertilizers, as well as weak buying sentiment in the domestic market. In India, the price of nitrogen has shown a downward trend, with a decrease of 3.4% in December 2023 compared to the previous month. This decline has been influenced by factors such as destocking at the end of the year, decreased demand from the international market, and higher inventory levels in the market. However, the price is expected to rebound in the following months due to increased market activity, low inventory levels, and anticipated growth in inquiries from downstream industries. The quarter-ending price for liquid nitrogen ex-Taloja in India is USD 342/MT.
Europe
In Q4 2023, nitrogen gas prices in Europe underwent a volatile journey characterized by fluctuations, regional variations, and persistent uncertainty. The quarter began with a price decline, driven by weakened demand from key downstream industries, particularly in fertilizers and chemicals. Prices significantly dipped in October, with reports indicating a 20-30% decrease compared to Q3, approaching pre-2023 levels in some regions. Towards the quarter's end, a slight uptick occurred due to seasonal storage practices and anticipation of increased industrial demand in early 2024. Reduced demand from fertilizer and chemical manufacturers, influenced by high production costs and cautious buying behaviour, played a significant role in the price decline. While natural gas prices, a key factor in nitrogen production costs, remained elevated, they stabilized in Q4, providing some relief to nitrogen producers. Ample nitrogen gas stocks throughout the quarter exerted downward pressure on prices due to weaker demand and readily available supply. Geopolitical factors, notably the ongoing war in Ukraine, indirectly impacted energy costs and economic stability, contributing to market uncertainty. Regional variations in price movements were observed across different European regions, influenced by local supply-demand dynamics, access to storage facilities, and energy infrastructure. Generally, prices were slightly higher in Western and Central Europe compared to Eastern European markets.
