For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region experienced a notable uptrend in Nitrogen pricing, with the USA particularly witnessing significant price increases. The surge in prices can be attributed to robust domestic and international demand, driven by various sectors such as agriculture. Strong inquiries from downstream industries, along with elevated procurement activities globally, created a supply-demand imbalance, leading to tightened supply chains and low inventory levels. This imbalance, coupled with factors like port congestion and potential hurricane-related disruptions, further propelled prices upwards.
Moreover, the positive market sentiment was bolstered by steady economic growth, reflected in increased nitrogen consumption across different sectors. Despite some disruptions in the manufacturing sector, the overall demand remained high, supported by factors like favorable affordability and the need for crop inputs ahead of the fall application season.
Overall, the pricing environment for Nitrogen in the USA in Q3 2024 has been bullish, with prices steadily increasing throughout the quarter and prices rise by 7.9% from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price of USD 250/MT of Nitrogen 28% Fertilizer FOB Illinois signifies the ongoing upward trend in pricing dynamics.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 in the APAC region witnessed a notable surge in Nitrogen prices, with India experiencing the most significant price changes. Several factors contributed to this uptrend, including robust domestic and international demand, supply chain disruptions, high import costs, and increased energy prices. The market was further influenced by disruptions at key manufacturing plants, port congestions, and uncertainties in the Middle East, leading to a supply-demand imbalance. India, in particular, saw prices rise by 9% from the previous quarter and Compared to the same quarter in 2023, prices showed a significant 37% increase, reflecting the overall bullish trend in the region. Seasonal agricultural activities and strong industrial inquiries also played a crucial role in driving prices higher. The correlation between price changes throughout the quarter was evident, with a modest increase observed between the first and second half. As the quarter concluded, the price for Liquid Nitrogen Ex-Taloja in India reached USD 465/MT, marking a continued positive pricing environment amidst evolving market dynamics.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Nitrogen market experienced a significant uptrend in pricing, with the Netherlands particularly witnessing substantial price increases. This surge in prices can be attributed to robust domestic and international demand, driven by key sectors such as agriculture, which saw an uptick in nitrogen consumption. Strong inquiries from downstream industries, along with elevated global procurement activities, led to a supply-demand imbalance, tightening supply chains and resulting in low inventory levels. Factors like port congestion and flood-related disruptions further exacerbated the supply constraints, pushing prices higher. Moreover, the positive market sentiment was bolstered by steady economic growth, which was reflected in increased nitrogen consumption across multiple sectors. On the supply side, the nitrogen market continued to experience tightness. Despite some disruptions in the manufacturing sector, demand remained high, supported by favorable affordability and the need for crop inputs ahead of the fall application season. Overall, the pricing environment for nitrogen in the Netherlands during Q3 2024 remained bullish, with prices steadily rising throughout the quarter, registering a significant increase from the previous quarter's levels.
MEA
In Q3 2024, nitrogen prices in Congo saw a substantial 41% increase from the previous quarter, experiencing a significant surge throughout the period. This sharp rise was primarily attributed to high import costs and persistently low inventory levels. Congo’s reliance on imports to meet its nitrogen fertilizer demand left the market vulnerable to global price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions. With limited domestic production capacity and difficulties in securing affordable imports, the nitrogen market in the country tightened considerably, leading to price hikes across the board. Import prices surged due to rising global demand, and shipments from major producers were both limited and costly, further straining the local market. The agricultural sector, which heavily depends on nitrogen fertilizers for crop production, continued to drive demand, even as rising costs created financial challenges for buyers. Smallholder farmers and larger agricultural operations alike struggled with the increased prices, leading to concerns over the affordability of fertilizers and the potential impact on production costs and food security. While demand remained steady, the combination of constrained supply and elevated procurement activities contributed to the bullish pricing environment in Congo, with significant upward pressure on prices expected to continue into the next quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Nitrogen market in North America demonstrated a robust upward trajectory, primarily driven by several key factors. The quarter saw escalating corn and natural gas prices, which directly influenced nitrogen production costs. High energy prices compounded by geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East conflict, further strained supply chains, resulting in increased nitrogen fertilizer costs. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore exacerbated logistical challenges, significantly impacting trade activities and port operations, thereby constraining supply and inflating prices.
Focusing on the USA, the market experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations. The agricultural sector's increased demand, spurred by favorable crop prices and enhanced farm incomes, bolstered nitrogen purchases. Additionally, the resurgence in the automobile market, marked by a 7.6% month-on-month increase in vehicle sales, spurred demand in the metallurgy and metal processing industries. Seasonality also played a role, with Memorial Day holiday incentives further amplifying procurement activities.
The overall trend in Q2 was bullish, characterized by a consistent upward momentum in prices. Despite a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3%, the nitrogen market rebounded strongly with a notable 5% price increase from the first to the second half of the quarter. The pricing environment was decidedly positive, reflecting heightened market optimism and strong demand. Conclusively, the quarter ended with nitrogen prices at USD 232/MT FOB Illinois, underscoring the persistent upward trend and positive sentiment in the market.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the nitrogen market in the APAC region has experienced a distinctly bullish trend, driven by several influential factors. Elevated production costs, primarily due to rising natural gas prices, have significantly impacted nitrogen prices. Concurrently, geopolitical tensions and port congestion have exacerbated supply chain disruptions, further straining the market.
Focusing on India, the country has witnessed the most pronounced price fluctuations within the APAC region. The Indian nitrogen market has been buoyed by strong demand from the agricultural sector, supported by government subsidies and robust construction activities. Seasonal variations, particularly the preparation for the kharif season, have heightened procurement activities, driving up prices. Overall, the nitrogen market in India has reflected an increasing trend, with a substantial 18% price rise from the previous quarter in 2024.
The latest quarter-ending price for Liquid Nitrogen Ex-Taloja in India stands at INR 37000/MT, reflecting a positive pricing environment. The upward trajectory in nitrogen prices has been predominantly due to heightened demand, supply constraints, and strategic governmental support, marking a favorable economic landscape within the region.
Europe
In Q2 2024, European Nitrogen prices exhibited mixed trends influenced by complex regional dynamics. Variations in supply and demand led to localized price fluctuations, with inventory levels playing a key role. Overstocking resulted in price decreases, while understocking led to increases.
Demand from agriculture, the primary consumer of Nitrogen-based fertilizers, was moderate to low due to adverse weather conditions and fluctuating crop yields. Industrial applications also experienced variable demand, adding to price variability. Natural gas prices, essential for Nitrogen production, impacted production costs and, in turn, prices.
The European ammonia market, derived from nitrogen, showed mixed trends. Stable prices from major exporters like Russia and ample domestic stock in Germany, bolstered by increased production capacity from BASF and IPP, supported market stability. However, fluctuating demand and adverse weather conditions, including windstorms and floods, led to inconsistent demand patterns across Europe.
In conclusion, the European Nitrogen market faced a mixed price trend in Q2 2024, driven by regional supply and demand disparities, inventory adjustments, and fluctuating downstream demand. The overall market reflected a complex interplay of weather conditions, economic factors, and production dynamics.
MEA
During Q2 2024, nitrogen prices in the domestic market of Congo experienced a notable rise, influenced by a combination of international and local factors. High import prices from the USA, driven by increased corn and natural gas costs, played a significant role. This period saw bullish market sentiment, prompting businesses to increase purchase quantities and inventories in anticipation of sustained demand growth.
Increased demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the USA was driven by elevated corn prices and rising natural gas costs, essential for producing synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. This demand surge influenced Congo's market, where manufacturers faced heightened production costs due to high natural gas prices. Additionally, port congestion and geopolitical disruptions exacerbated supply chain issues, further pushing prices up.
In Congo, the agricultural sector's optimism remained high due to increased farm incomes and the need to boost crop yields. The manufacturing sector also showed significant improvement, with accelerated production growth and a surge in new orders. These factors combined to create a noticeable supply-demand imbalance, reducing inventory levels and sustaining the upward price trend. Overall, the nitrogen market in India has reflected stabilized trend, with a marginal rise of 0.1% from the previous quarter in 2024.
Q2 2024 saw a substantial increase in nitrogen prices in Congo and thus latest quarter-ending price for Nitrogen CFR Matadi (Congo) stands at USD 1295/ MT, reflecting a positive pricing environment., driven by high import costs, robust domestic demand, and supply chain challenges. The market remained bullish, with low supply and high demand dynamics, reinforcing the positive market sentiment and contributing to sustained price increases.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American nitrogen market experienced a mixed pricing environment. Overall, prices were influenced by various factors, resulting in both positive and negative trends.
In the USA, nitrogen prices witnessed a decline in January and February due to weakened consumer demand, particularly from the downstream agricultural sector. This downturn was further exacerbated by an oversupply situation in regional markets, leading to a reduction in prices. The presence of elevated inventory levels also contributed to negative market sentiments and a subdued purchasing environment. However, in March, prices rebounded, driven by an anticipated increase in demand and lower production costs due to decreased energy prices.
The overall trend in the North American nitrogen market during Q1 2024 was bearish, with high supply levels and weak demand from downstream industries. The market experienced quiet trading and falling prices, with limited positive activity to boost confidence. The demand for nitrogen remained low, influenced by subdued trading activities and negative market sentiments. The latest quarter-ending price for Nitrogen 28% Fertilizer FOB Illinois in the USA was USD 232/MT.
APAC
The APAC region experienced a mixed pricing environment for Nitrogen in Q1 2024. Various factors influenced market prices during this period. Overall, the market trended positively, with some countries witnessing price increases while others saw declines.
In January, there was an oversupply of Nitrogen in the market, leading to price decreases. This oversupply, coupled with reduced demand from downstream industries, particularly in the food and agriculture sectors, and lower production costs in exporting nations, contributed to the decline in Nitrogen prices. India experienced significant price fluctuations in the Nitrogen market. However, in February and March 2024, there was a price surge, driven by heightened demand from the healthcare sector and the government's initiative to replace conventional urea with nano urea. Overall, the pricing trend for Nitrogen in India during Q1 2024 was bullish, with low supply and high demand.
Finally, the quarter-ending price for Nitrogen in India was recorded at INR 32500/MT, Ex-Taloja. Overall, the pricing environment for Nitrogen in Q1 2024 can be described as positive, with prices showing a steady rise influenced by increased demand and higher import prices.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the Europe nitrogen market experienced a mixed pricing environment. Overall, prices were influenced by various factors, resulting in both positive and negative trends.
In the Netherland, nitrogen prices witnessed a decline in January and February due to weakened consumer demand, particularly from the downstream agricultural sector. This downturn was further exacerbated by an oversupply situation in regional markets, leading to a reduction in prices. The presence of elevated inventory levels also contributed to negative market sentiments and a subdued purchasing environment. However, in March, prices rebounded, driven by an anticipated increase in demand and lower production costs due to decreased energy prices.
The overall trend in the Europe nitrogen market during Q1 2024 was bearish, with high supply levels and weak demand from downstream industries. The market experienced quiet trading and falling prices, with limited positive activity to boost confidence. The demand for nitrogen remained low, influenced by subdued trading activities and negative market sentiments in the domestic market of Europe.
Africa
In Q1 2024, the African region encountered a favorable pricing atmosphere for Nitrogen. Numerous factors played a role in shaping market prices during this timeframe. Overall, the market maintained a positive trajectory in the region.
Throughout January, nitrogen prices in Congo remained stable, indicating a balanced market environment. However, in February, there was a marginal 0.5% uptick in prices, primarily driven by elevated import prices and a slight increase in demand from the downstream food industry. Despite facing challenges such as power shortages and logistical hurdles at key infrastructure points like Transnet, the country saw encouraging developments in business activity and new sales orders during February. March witnessed a surge in nitrogen prices in Congo due to disruptions in the Red Sea region and instability in global agricultural markets. Import dependence led to higher prices, coupled with increased domestic demand. Instability in global agricultural markets, supply chain disruptions, and rising energy costs further boosted prices. Despite challenges, robust demand persisted, highlighting the interconnectedness of sectors within the chemical industry. The latest quarter-ending price for Nitrogen in the Congo was USD 1300/MT, CFR Matadi.
Prices have steadily increased throughout the quarter, reflecting a positive pricing environment. This price reflects the overall upward trend observed in the market. Overall, the pricing environment for Nitrogen in the Africa region, particularly in the Congo, has been characterized by increasing prices during Q1 2024.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the North American region, the Nitrogen market in the fourth quarter of 2023 has been influenced by several key factors. Firstly, a supply-demand imbalance has emerged, with increased demand from the automobile and electronic industries, particularly in the USA. This surge in demand has led to a drop in inventory levels, putting upward pressure on prices. Additionally, higher input costs, such as natural gas, have further contributed to the increase in Nitrogen prices.
Among the countries in the region, the USA has experienced the most significant changes in Nitrogen prices. The country's strong demand from the automotive and electronic sectors, coupled with a rebounding economy and stable interest rates, has led to an uptick in prices. However, the slow demand for fertilizer and food packaging material has tempered the price increase.
The price trend analysis for the USA during this quarter shows a correlation between increased demand and higher prices. The price of Nitrogen in the USA has seen a decrease of 27% compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, there has been a decline of 16% in prices from the previous quarter. In terms of the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, there has been a decrease of 13%.
In conclusion, the Nitrogen market in the North American region, particularly in the USA, has experienced an increase in prices due to strong demand from the automotive and electronic industries. The supply-demand imbalance and higher input costs have further contributed to the price uptick. The latest price of Nitrogen 28% Fertilizer FOB Illinois in the USA for the current quarter is USD 255/MT.
APAC
The APAC region has experienced mixed trends in nitrogen pricing during the fourth quarter of 2023 (Oct to Dec). The market has been influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, plant shutdowns, and the performance of specific countries such as India. Three key factors that have affected the nitrogen market in the APAC region are moderate to high demand from the fertilizer industry, increased production costs due to higher natural gas prices, and strong demand from sectors such as food, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and electronics. The fertilizer industry in India, in particular, has played a significant role in driving up demand for nitrogen-based fertilizer, aiming to eliminate urea imports by 2025. However, there have also been challenges such as slow demand from urea, ammonia, and other fertilizers, as well as weak buying sentiment in the domestic market. In India, the price of nitrogen has shown a downward trend, with a decrease of 3.4% in December 2023 compared to the previous month. This decline has been influenced by factors such as destocking at the end of the year, decreased demand from the international market, and higher inventory levels in the market. However, the price is expected to rebound in the following months due to increased market activity, low inventory levels, and anticipated growth in inquiries from downstream industries. The quarter-ending price for liquid nitrogen ex-Taloja in India is USD 342/MT.
Europe
In Q4 2023, nitrogen gas prices in Europe underwent a volatile journey characterized by fluctuations, regional variations, and persistent uncertainty. The quarter began with a price decline, driven by weakened demand from key downstream industries, particularly in fertilizers and chemicals. Prices significantly dipped in October, with reports indicating a 20-30% decrease compared to Q3, approaching pre-2023 levels in some regions. Towards the quarter's end, a slight uptick occurred due to seasonal storage practices and anticipation of increased industrial demand in early 2024. Reduced demand from fertilizer and chemical manufacturers, influenced by high production costs and cautious buying behaviour, played a significant role in the price decline. While natural gas prices, a key factor in nitrogen production costs, remained elevated, they stabilized in Q4, providing some relief to nitrogen producers. Ample nitrogen gas stocks throughout the quarter exerted downward pressure on prices due to weaker demand and readily available supply. Geopolitical factors, notably the ongoing war in Ukraine, indirectly impacted energy costs and economic stability, contributing to market uncertainty. Regional variations in price movements were observed across different European regions, influenced by local supply-demand dynamics, access to storage facilities, and energy infrastructure. Generally, prices were slightly higher in Western and Central Europe compared to Eastern European markets.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the third quarter of 2023, the price of Nitrogen experienced a combination of price movements, with an initial increase in the first half of the quarter followed by a decline in the second half. The decline in prices was influenced by a weak demand outlook and a decrease in inquiries from Nitrogen gas producers. Companies in the fertilizer industry have been actively working on establishing ammonia production facilities in the United States, particularly along the U.S. Gulf Coast, with the goal of not only producing ammonia for fertilizers but also capturing a significant amount of carbon dioxide emissions, a more eco-friendly approach known as "blue ammonia." These companies are taking advantage of incentives offered by the Inflation Reduction Act and the existing export infrastructure in the region. Despite efforts to reduce their backlog of work and finished goods inventory, manufacturers continued to hire new employees in anticipation of increased workloads. In terms of pricing, the average input costs have risen for the second consecutive month, with a slightly higher rate of increase. These increased costs were being passed on to customers, resulting in higher output prices.
APAC
During the third quarter of 2023, Nitrogen prices maintained a moderate pace due to increased demand from various sectors such as fertilizers, mining, metals, and electronics. Natural gas prices also remained favorable throughout the quarter. In the Indian market, Nitrogen prices surged due to strong demand from the packaging and pharmaceutical sectors. Inventories were ample, and the industrial output in the country showed a positive trend. The purchasing index in the country reached its highest point compared to previous periods. Suppliers received consistent orders for the product.
The versatile nature of Nitrogen gas contributed to its increased use and volume in the domestic market, particularly in healthcare applications. Nitrogen gas is preferred for maintaining pressure in tires, providing better performance compared to traditional air-filled tires. The introduction of new agricultural policies and government subsidies in India had a positive impact on the production and procurement of nitrogen-based fertilizers in the Asia-Pacific market.
Europe
In the European market, Nitrogen prices decreased during the second quarter due to persistent weak demand and cautious ordering behavior by buyers. High natural gas costs, which serve as the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, led to a disconnection in most of the nitrogen fertilizer production within the European Union. This disruption in production was accompanied by a return of fertilizer production in the European region, a decline in import requests, and a global softening of fertilizer prices. FTI Consulting offered guidance to a global fertilizer manufacturer operating in Europe, which was facing challenges related to the European Union's ambitious decarbonization objectives. This guidance involved exploring potential strategies for developing a green fertilizer support program in Europe. Recognizing that fertilizer supply is crucial for food security and economic stability, governments worldwide have adopted a more proactive approach to securing these essential resources. Furthermore, the European region encountered economic difficulties as it entered a recession, and the European Central Bank raised interest rates, which had a ripple effect on commodity prices, negatively impacting buyers and straining the government's finances.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
Throughout the second quarter of 2023, Nitrogen price dynamics moved in the southward direction on account of a weak demand outlook and a smaller number of inquiries faced by Nitrogen gas producers. In spite of the minimal expense of domestic nitrogen production, the market, in general, is in decline. Since there was no interest in the item in the fer market upstream, a homegrown result of nitrogen in the US market stayed restricted. Average industrial results were delivered, and production costs varied with the cost of natural gas. Also, The US House of Representatives suspended the obligation debt ceiling rate to handle the disturbed economy of the nation and give better capital. In spite of Congress' structure to endorse the undertaking, a government requests court has impeded development on a piece of a contentious natural gas pipeline that is being worked through Virginia and West Virginia. Additionally, the Union Strike of the West US protest had affected the general progression of the functional exercises happening in the country.
APAC
Nitrogen price dynamics throughout the second quarter of 2023 remained on a higher edge on account of inclined demand from fertilizer, mining, metals, and electronics, and the natural gas prices remained on a positive note throughout the quarter. Nitrogen prices in the Indian market flooded on the record of slanted request viewpoint for the item from the packaging area alongside the pharmaceutical area. The inventories were sufficient, and the modern result in the nation had definitely slanted. The purchasing index in the nation was the most elevated when contrasted. The suppliers got persistent requests about the item. The additive nature of the gas raises its utilization rate and amount in the homegrown market to save the examples in the medical services area. Nitrogen gas gives better tension maintenance in tires swelled with it when contrasted with traditional air-filled tires. The implementation of new agricultural policies, along with the subsidies provided by the Indian government, favored the production and purchasing rate of nitrogen-based fertilizers in the Asia-Pacific market.
Europe
Nitrogen prices in the European market declined in the second quarter as the demand remained under pressure and the buyers restricted themselves from placing higher orders. With flammable gas being the essential feedstock in nitrogen composts, high petroleum gas costs kept the vast majority of the nitrogen manure creation disconnected all through the EU. European region fertilizer production returned, import requests faded, and worldwide compost costs relaxed thus. International Fertilizer Association (IFA) said the effect of approvals, high natural substance expenses, and commodity limitations prompted the possibility of an emphatically discounted compost supply, and greater costs prompted request obliteration in moderateness-driven markets. With fertilizer supply a question of food security and monetary dependability, legislatures across the world have taken on a more proactive way to deal with getting actual supplies. Moreover, the European region stumbled on economic grounds as the region entered recession, and the European Central Bank raised the interest rate impacting the overall commodity prices and negatively affecting buyers and gouging the administration's area.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the market sentiments of Nitrogen fluctuated in the North American region on account of demand strength and production cost. Nitrogen final prices in the US market fell due to dropping upstream (natural gas) prices and weak demand for the product. The stock of inventories was adequate to meet domestic demand. Despite the low cost of domestic Nitrogen production, the overall market is declining. Domestic Nitrogen output in the US market remained limited since there was little upstream demand for the product in the fertilizer market. Average industrial outputs were produced, while production costs varied with natural gas prices.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2023, Nitrogen prices showcased mixed sentiments in the Asia-Pacific market owing to the fluctuating demand outlook. Towards the start of the quarter, the declining natural gas prices proportionally governed the Nitrogen prices in the Asian market. The commodity was scarce for the suppliers and end-user manufacturing plants. The decrease in natural gas prices lowered production costs towards the mid-quarter. Nitrogen market prices increased in the regional market due to increased demand from the packaging and fertilizer industries. According to market participants, prices increased in response to a jump in downstream demand from the local food and beverage businesses.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2023, Nitrogen prices inclined drastically in the European market due to the inclined demand outlook. In the first half of the quarter, Nitrogen prices declined, accompanied by natural gas (upstream) prices and slow demand. However, as the spring season approached, the demand for Nitrogen inclined significantly, inclining the overall market prices of Nitrogen in the European market. Furthermore, the packed food items and frozen edible things showcased a better demand outlook throughout the first quarter of 2023. The industrial activities in the regional market are inclined to showcase better productional rates and purchasing activities.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the market sentiments of Nitrogen fluctuated in the North American region on account of demand strength and production cost. In the first half of the quarter, the prices witnessed stagnancy as the demand for Nitrogen from the fertilizer sector, along with food and beverages, was stagnant. The suppliers witnessed frequent inquiries as a ripple effect, and the final prices were kept steady. However, towards the quarter's end, the market prices declined sharply as the festive holidays, and storm Elliot hampered the supply chain in the regional market. Furthermore, the demand for the product from the agricultural sector declined along with the food and beverages sector. The unemployment rate in the country stabilized towards the quarter end, and the fear of economic recession in the country shrouded the US.
APAC
In the fourth quarter, the prices of Nitrogen in the Asia-Pacific market dipped by 7% on account of declining demand for the product. According to the Indian government's official statement, the country had an ample amount of fertilizer stockpile to cater to the domestic market for the rabi season, proportionally impacting the final market price of Nitrogen. The demand for the product from the pharmaceutical and food & beverages sector in the Asian market remained moderate. The Wholesale price index (WPI) throughout the quarter fluctuated and declined slightly in December. The manufacturing output in the Indian market inclined towards the quarter end and the demand outlook also improvised.
Europe
The prices of Nitrogen showcased a declining trend in the fourth quarter of 2022 in the European markets. The capacity of Europe to generate nitrogen-based fertilizer was diminished because of certain big businesses cutting their output in response to increasing energy costs and declining demand strength. Following the natural gas supply disruption, regional inflation has limited the manufacturer's ability to produce Nitrogen. Furthermore, the demand for the product from the fertilizer market remained modest. Rising wage costs and interest rates hinder the overall market. The European market also witnessed a decline in chemical industries and the output capacity throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Throughout the second quarter of 2022, Nitrogen prices showcased mixed sentiments in the United States. The increased demand for nitrogen fertilisers in America towards the start of the quarter proportionally governed the market prices of Nitrogen. The regional market's energy prices continued to increase, impacting production costs. Towards the quarter end, the demand from downstream, fertilizer, and food services declined as the harvest of crops such as corn and cotton occurred. Furthermore, the restricted demand from the buyers' side was witnessed by major suppliers as the buyers were not ready to purchase the increased prices of Nitrogen. The price of Nitrogen at the end of Q3 2022 was estimated to be around USD 755/MT FOB Illinois (USA).
APAC
In the third quarter, the prices of Nitrogen in the Asia-Pacific market showcased mixed sentiments. The demand from downstream (nitrogen-based fertilizer) increased towards the start of the quarter due to the Kharif season. Towards the quarter end, the harvesting period started proportionally declining the prices in the Indian market. The manufacturing output increased amid global inflation and rising economic threats. End users had sufficient inventories to cater to the domestic demand. Furthermore, the energy cost remained slightly on a higher edge impacting its production cost. At the end of the third quarter of 2022, the prices of Nitrogen on the Indian market were USD 194/MT Ex-Taloja.
Europe
The prices of Nitrogen showcased mixed sentiments throughout the third quarter of 2022 in the European markets. Some major manufacturers reduced their production output due to skyrocketing energy costs, significantly reducing Europe's capacity to produce nitrogen-based fertilizer. Inflation in the region after the natural gas supply disruption has restricted the manufacturer from producing Nitrogen. Due to the disruption in supply brought on by the Russian action against Europe, the upstream natural gas prices throughout the continent are skyrocketing. High wage bills and higher interest rates also slowed the demand from downstream industries. The demand from downstream sectors also declined in the regional market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The price of Bulk Nitrogen rose throughout the second quarter of 2022 in the United States of America. However, the primary reason behind the hike in price is the high demand for nitrogen fertilizers in America and the shortages of nitrogen-based fertilizers in the region. America was dependent on Russian imports for its majority fertilizers requirement, and the ban on Russian imports by the US for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which further pressurized the bulk nitrogen prices. Bulk Nitrogen price during the end of Q2 2022 was recorded at around USD 760/MT. High demand for Nitrogen fertilizer in the US market owing to an increase in wheat cultivation to reduce dependency on Ukraine imports aided the rising price trend of nitrogen in the US during Q2 2022.
APAC
The price of Bulk Nitrogen in the Indian market peaked in April and then eased during MAY, and the price rose again at the end of the second quarter. The prices of Bulk nitrogen hiked due to the high demand for nitrogen-based fertilizer. Increased wheat production in India in an attempt to fill the void left by the lack of Ukraine’s wheat in the global market raised the demand for downstream nitrogen-based fertilizers even more. The price of Bulk nitrogen in the Indian market at the end of Q2 2022 was INR 15415/MT. The price peaked during April due to the supply disruption caused by the war in Eastern Europe, as Russia was the highest exporter of nitrogen-based nitrogen to India.
Europe
In the European Markets, the price of Bulk nitrogen witnessed a price hike throughout the second quarter of 2022. The sky-rocketing demand for downstream nitrogen-based fertilizers was the primary factor driving up the price in the continent. The cost of upstream natural gas on the continent is soaring due to the supply disruption caused by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. The ban on natural gas imports from Russia further pressurized the price of Nitrogen in Europe. Due to the energy crisis in the continent, many fertilizers manufacturers had to suspend their operations, worsening the price condition of Nitrogen in Europe. The price of Bulk Nitrogen during Q2 2022 was recorded at around USD 740/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The disruption in the supply chain and high freight charges owing to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine increased the prices of Bulk nitrogen in the American market. As the sowing season is usually around the end of April or the beginning of May, farmers tend to stock the downstream fertilizers during the first quarter of the year especially in America where the cultivation is comparatively done on a large scale. Bulk Nitrogen prices in the USA increased by nearly 2% in the USA. The Chinese government’s decision to ban the exports of fertilizers to meet the needs of its domestic market also aided the upward trend of Bulk Nitrogen in the American market during Q1 of 2022.
Asia Pacific
Bulk nitrogen prices soared in the Chinese market during the first quarter of 2022 as there were several production halts on account of Winter Olympics held in Beijing. The rise in upstream natural gas and fuel prices worsened the situation of Nitrogen prices. Other Asian market also saw a surge in Nitrogen prices as China banned the exports of downstream fertilizers to meet the growing demand of its domestic market. The Indian market witnessed a hike in demand of bulk nitrogen due to the approaching of sowing season for Zaid crops (summer crops). In India prices rose due to the lack of supply on fertilizers from China. In India Bulk Nitrogen prices were assessed at USD 197/MT in March.
Europe
European market witnessed a huge hike in prices of Bulk Nitrogen due to the high demand from the downstream fertilizer industry. Especially nitrogen-based fertilizer remained in high demand as sowing season of crops like wheat, corn is approaching, and farmers tend to stock on fertilizers. Since natural gas plays a vital role in production of fertilizer, high prices of natural gas due to bans on imports of Russian oil and gas act as an opposition for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine therefore prices of Bulk Nitrogen values witness uptrend. Many South American countries depend on European exports for fertilizers, and this further pressurized the demand for Nitrogen and contributed to the upward trend of Bulk Nitrogen prices by nearly 3% in Europe during Q1 of 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The pricing trend for Bulk Nitrogen depicted an upsurge in the US domestic market during the fourth quarter of 2021, backed by the high demand from fertilizer sector. The prices for the bulk nitrogen were evaluated at USD 480/MT FOB Illinois in December ending. The demand for fertilizers went high worldwide along with its prices owing to the rise in prices of natural gas and fuel. Furthermore, corn, wheat, and soybean which are among the major fertilizer requiring crops are largely produced by the US. Consequently, resulting in even more demand for the product. Moreover, disruption in supply chain and distribution along with a hike in shipping charges were among the major factors contributing to a rise in the prices of Bulk Nitrogen.
Asia
The prices for bulk nitrogen projected upwards in the Asian market during the fourth quarter of 2021. The pricing trend was higher in the Chinese market owing to the high demand for nitrogen-based fertilizer. In addition, the supply of fertilizers was not corresponding with the demand due to a surge in natural gas price and fuel, halting energy-intensive processes and disrupting supply chains. Likewise, the bulk Nitrogen prices were soaring in the Indian market as well. The reason for the same was the high demand for fertilizers due to the ongoing rabi season or sowing season for winter crops. Another reason for the surging demand and prices of fertilizers was not getting enough supply owing to high natural gas prices and China imposed a ban on exporting fertilizers. Additionally, another factor impacting prices of bulk nitrogen is high demand due to its usage as a refrigerant in ongoing vaccination drives in Asian countries.
Europe
European market witnessed a hike in the prices of Bulk nitrogen in the fourth quarter of the year 2021 due to the intensified downstream demand from the fertilizer producing industries. This surge in demand for fertilizers was caused due to the ongoing season for sowing winter crops. Supply chain disruptions and increased shipping charges mutually halted the supply and eventually enhanced the demand for fertilizers. The demand for liquid nitrogen was further augmented due to continuing vaccination drive as liquified nitrogen is used as a refrigerant for cryopreservation of Covid-19 vaccines.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
In North America, Bulk Nitrogen market experienced an upward trajectory backed by the firm demand from several downstream segments during the third quarter. In the US, Bulk Nitrogen prices witnessed an upsurge due to its reduced availability, as a repercussion of Ida hurricane in August end. The situation consequently led to the disrupted production and supply across the region. Moreover, consistent rise in the energy prices in the international market further exerted pressure on the Bulk Nitrogen market and influenced its pricing trend throughout the quarter.
Asia
In Q3 of 2021, Bulk Nitrogen market outlook remained positive in Asia bolstered by the surge in demand from the pharmaceutical and food & beverages industries. In India, prices of Liquid Nitrogen witnessed an upward trend supported by the procurement of the product in higher volumes by the local traders due to the firm demand. Moreover, logistic issues and expensive transportation also contributed to the inflation in the prices of Bulk Nitrogen in the regional market. Besides, traders were heard transferring the cost pressure to downstream consumers to safeguard their profit margins. Hence, Ex-Taloja Bulk Nitrogen prices were assessed at USD 189.09 per MT in July.
Europe
In Europe, Bulk Nitrogen prices attained tremendous gains supported by low inventory levels amidst firm demand. Moreover, pressured stocks amplified the need for Nitrogen fertilizers globally that kept that Nitrogen market under pressure in this timeframe. In addition, Russia, announced to place export quotas on urea and nitrates, which further stressed global Nitrogen sentiments in the European region. Besides, soaring demand for Nitrogen as a refrigerant kept its market fundamentals in upward trajectory in the concerned timeframe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Nitrogen prices in North America climbed effectively during this quarter. Initially prices of Nitrogen remained high, due to regional shortage after the freezing fallout experienced in February. Later, further improvement in demand from the downstream fertilizers sector led to improvement in the production activities. As the supply was still low, increase in demand widened the demand and supply gap and made Nitrogen prices to rise effectively throughout the quarter. In the meantime, global demand for Nitrogen increased respectively, where the overall supply remained tight that induced buoyancy in its prices across global market.
Asia
In the Asian market, prices of Nitrogen showcased mixed sentiments, where the demand from downstream fertilizers segment remained consistent in China and Japan but remained dull in India. In the Indian market, prices of Nitrogen decreased effectively during May following the fall in demand due to unprecedented surge in COVID cases in the country. Several industrial gas manufacturers diverted their Nitrogen manufacturing towards Oxygen, as the country faced severe shortage of medical Oxygen. Under the movement restrictions in the country, demand from downstream sectors slumped, which later improved during the quarter ending. Eventually, prices of Nitrogen in India bounced back and reached USD 480.5/MT in the final week of June.
Europe
Surge in regional demand from downstream Ammonia based fertilizers, led to a plausible rise in price of upstream Nitrogen within the quarter. This rise was driven by firm offtakes from agrochemicals sectors amidst the supply shortage across the region. During April, imports of several products reduced from USA which pressured domestic manufacturers to enhance their production to satisfy the overall demand. The move eventually led to an increase in demand and prices for Nitrogen in the regional market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
Despite of numerous efforts to regain the industrial activities, North America region faced astonishing downfall in the industrial sector during Q1 2021. Metal fabrication sector remained on low pace, due to tumbling demand from downstream sector like automobiles and constructions in various parts of North America region. Texas winter storm also halted the various plant activities across the region which reduced the demand for carrier gases and Nitrogen from agrochemical sector.
Asia
During Q1 2021, Asia region sustained its fair recovery in industrial activities with respect to the prior quarter. Improved production and increased availability halted the price acceleration of Bulk Nitrogen and it thus experienced a price downfall across the region. The demand from metal fabrications remained low in several APAC countries, which led to fall in demand for Nitrogen in metal fabrication sector. Similarly, in India, the automotive sector was bearing losses during Q1 2021, although it showed marginal improvement during January. Due to rapid rise in COVID 19 cases and partial lockdowns implements in various states of India, the demand for bulk Nitrogen failed to sustain its pace. Likewise, in Chinese market, metal fabrication sector and automotive sector remained low and hence the ample availability reduced the prices of Bulk Nitrogen.
Europe
During Q1 2021, sales from metal manufacturing and agrochemicals sectors remained stable with respect to Q4 2020. Although, vaccination drives across the region enhanced the market sentiments, but it was not enough to lay a significant impact upon the market dynamics. However, shortage of shipping containers during Q1 and Suez Canal blockage during March ending, increased the prices of Nitrogen and its derivative products.
For the Quarter Ending December 2020
North America
Despite of experiencing steady growth in various industrial activities, the sales to the industrial sectors like metal fabrication and automotive remained low. However, in comparison to the previous year the position of metal manufacturing industry in the region was seemed to improve. With gradual revival in the metal fabrication industry towards the end of Q4, demand for bulk Nitrogen from gas blanketing and laser cutting segments also improved. Nucor, a leading steel manufacturer in USA revealed that their overall demand for bulk gases increased by around 7% from Q3 to Q4, thereby indicating towards a positive demand for industrial Nitrogen.
Asia
During Q4 2020, the overall recovery of Asia was deemed as good, and industries were getting a boost to come on track again. Air Liquide, one of the leading bulk gas suppliers across the world, revealed that they have experienced maximum growth in sales from China of around 10% due to the recovery observed in the metal fabrication sector and automotive in Q4. In addition, 10% growth was witnessed in carrier gases and advance materials sector which positively impacted the demand for Nitrogen. Despite prospects for pick-up in demand from the country’s steel industry, liquid Nitrogen pricing in India was averaged around USD 535 per tonne during the quarter ending December 2020.
Europe
Sales of metal manufacturing & fabrication materials showed an appreciable revival during Q4 2020, which caused a direct impact on the demand of Nitrogen in Europe. Air Liquide experienced a strong demand for liquid gases from the eastern European region, specially from Poland and Russia. Thus, in comparison to Q4 2019, the overall prices of Liquid Nitrogen surged by 1.7 per cent in the same period this year.
