For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Nitrocellulose market experienced a mix of conditions throughout Q4 2024, with import conditions initially creating a bullish market situation. In early October, a strike between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) disrupted port operations. Although the strike lasted only three days, it caused significant delays, with many ships left waiting to unload their cargo. This created a shortage in the supply of Nitrocellulose, putting pressure on the market and pushing prices higher in the short term. Suppliers were reported to be working with existing inventories, trying to manage the situation despite these disruptions and prevented ordering additional cargos from APAC due to rising production costs.
Adding to the challenges, the seasonal hurricane conditions, which persisted until November 2024, further disrupted logistical operations, exacerbating delays in shipments. These weather-related issues, combined with the strike, made it difficult to replenish inventories in a timely manner. On the demand side, conditions remained weak, particularly in the downstream construction sector. A noticeable decline in construction spending throughout the quarter contributed to a decrease in Nitrocellulose consumption, resulting in a more cautious market outlook.
As the quarter progressed and the holiday season approached, market activity slowed. Suppliers focused on inventory liquidation to clear excess stock, which led to a softening of prices toward the end of the quarter. This liquidation, alongside the ongoing challenges in construction demand, resulted in a market that wound down cautiously, reflecting both the disruptions and seasonal trends.
APAC
The APAC Nitrocellulose market experienced mixed conditions in Q4 2024. Prices initially rose by about 1.7%, then stabilized, and eventually declined by the same amount. Early in the quarter, rising production costs were passed on to customers, but suppliers relied on inventories accumulated during Q3, following disruptions from the monsoon season. This inventory surplus helped mitigate price hikes.
Some buyers were optimistic about the automotive sector and the festive season, leading to speculative bids. However, most suppliers maintained stable inventory levels, with slight fluctuations in production costs. By November 2024, demand from downstream industries such as coatings and construction remained sluggish, contributing to lower consumption and subdued market activity. Exports to Saudi Arabia were also affected by security concerns in the Red Sea and port closures in early November.
As the quarter progressed, suppliers focused on destocking to prepare for the year-end. Despite rising raw material cellulose prices, which helped stabilize the market, suppliers rolled over prices or offered slight reductions. By December, the market was generally bearish, with minimal completed deals due to the festive season's impact on business activity. The market remained subdued, with export conditions slow and limited transactions.
Europe
The European Nitrocellulose market experienced predominantly bearish conditions in Q4 2024, with prices declining throughout the quarter. Demand remained weak, as the European construction sector continued its downturn, leading to a generally negative sentiment in procurement activities. At the start of the quarter, a modest price increase occurred due to rising production costs in the Asian market. However, as the quarter progressed, destocking activities became the main focus, with suppliers prioritizing inventory liquidation.
Disruptions in international trade continued, with many of the Northwest ports in Europe undergoing maintenance, leading to inventory accumulation across European ports. This situation kept the market amply supplied, with no significant disruptions observed, which further contributed to the downward price trend. By December 2024, the market remained well-supplied, and the growing momentum of destocking activities pushed prices lower throughout the month. Overall, the combination of weak demand, logistical challenges, and inventory build-up led to continued price declines in the European Nitrocellulose market.
MEA
The Middle East Nitrocellulose market saw mixed conditions in Q4 2024. Prices initially rose by 0.2%, but then declined by 3% for the remainder of the quarter. Early on, Saudi suppliers linked price fluctuations to increased production costs in India. However, most Saudi suppliers relied on substantial inventories from Q3, which helped mitigate the impact of higher production costs. Additionally, an 8% drop in global freight charges offset some cost pressures from India. With abundant domestic supplies and concerns over Red Sea cargo delays, Saudi suppliers focused on using existing inventories instead of placing new bids.
Mid-quarter, production costs in Asia remained stable, but adverse weather in Southeast Asia disrupted shipments to Saudi Arabia. Port closures in India during early November further delayed shipments. Despite these challenges, Saudi suppliers maintained adequate inventory levels. As the quarter ended, suppliers prioritized liquidating existing stock to avoid inventory depreciation, contributing to further price declines.
By the end of Q4, rising production costs in Southeast Asia, driven by higher raw material cellulose prices, partly countered the price drops in Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, inventory liquidation and shipment delays, particularly at the port of Jeddah, caused prices to trend downward in December 2024, with procurement activity described as moderate.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Nitrocellulose market in North America experienced significant volatility during the third quarter of 2024. Initially, prices rose due to low inventories arriving from the Asian market, which were impacted by port congestion and heightened manufacturing costs. This situation resulted in expensive inventory arrivals in the U.S. market, leading to upward price pressures. Additionally, disruptions within the cellulose market were notable. A labor dispute in Canada involving Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) led to the lockout of over 9,000 workers, constraining the supply of cellulose feedstock and causing moderate production of Nitrocellulose across the U.S. These supply challenges further exacerbated the situation.
Demand conditions from the coating industries remained moderate, largely influenced by the ongoing hurricane season, which resulted in off-season conditions affecting consumer activity. As the quarter progressed, consumer confidence began to wane amid uncertainties related to the upcoming election season. This diminished sentiment prompted suppliers to exercise caution, leading to a reluctance to purchase in bulk.
Overall, the combination of supply constraints and shifting demand dynamics created a complex market environment for Nitrocellulose in North America during this period.
Europe
The European Nitrocellulose market experienced a predominantly upward trend during the third quarter of 2024, driven by expensive inventories arriving from the Asian market. Participants in the Asian export market reported heightened manufacturing costs, which contributed to the increased prices of inventories reaching Europe. Additionally, the arrival of these inventories was significantly delayed due to renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly affecting conditions at the Red Sea. This prompted carriers to reroute shipments through the Cape of Good Hope, despite a decrease in freight charges from Asia to Europe. On the demand side, however, conditions in the European market remained weak throughout the quarter. A persistent downturn in the construction sector, compounded by strikes, hindered the circulation of Nitrocellulose within the domestic market. Furthermore, post-summer vacation demand from the printing and packaging industry was subdued, reflecting ongoing challenges across these key sectors. As a result, while prices increased due to supply-side constraints, the overall demand environment remained lackluster.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 saw a significant surge in Nitro Cellulose prices across the APAC region, with India experiencing the most pronounced changes. Several interrelated factors contributed to this price increase, including rising production costs, limited supplies, and heightened demand from the Middle East market. These dynamics collectively drove prices upward, exacerbated by logistical and transportation disruptions that further impacted supply levels. In India, supplies remained low during the onset of the quarter due to the monsoon season, which created challenging conditions for logistics and transportation. Manufacturers consistently cited increased production costs as the primary driver behind rising prices. Additionally, the peak demand for cotton during this period led to higher cellulose prices, which in turn influenced Nitro Cellulose pricing. Midway through the quarter, Nitro Cellulose manufacturers continued to report escalating production costs as a significant factor in price increases. Persistent rains compounded the logistical challenges, slowing the circulation of products and leading to higher transportation expenses. Toward the end of the quarter, however, suppliers noted an ample availability of Nitro Cellulose in the market, along with a reduction in production costs, which contributed to some price depreciation. Exports to key Southeast Asian markets were notably subdued, largely due to adverse conditions like Typhoon Bebinca affecting regions such as Vietnam and Thailand. Demand conditions in India remained tepid, particularly in the automotive sector, which struggled throughout the quarter. Despite these challenges, the overall market in India exhibited a bullish trend, with Nitro Cellulose prices increasing steadily. Seasonal factors, including the monsoon season, influenced demand patterns across sectors like construction and automotive, resulting in fluctuations. Nevertheless, the quarter-ending price of USD 285,000 per metric ton of Nitro Cellulose Ex-Mumbai reflects a 9% increase from the previous quarter and a 2% increase from the first half of the quarter.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Nitrocellulose market in the MEA region experienced a significant upward trend in prices, with Saudi Arabia seeing the most pronounced increases. Several interrelated factors drove this price surge. Key among them were supply constraints caused by escalating production costs and various logistical challenges that hampered the smooth flow of materials. Additionally, heightened demand from industries such as automotive coatings and packaging contributed to the upward pressure on prices, as these sectors sought to secure reliable supplies amid growing market needs. The overall market trajectory reflected a positive outlook, with seasonal influences and market correlations further amplifying price changes. When compared to the same quarter last year, the price escalation was substantial, indicating a marked evolution in market conditions. The quarter-on-quarter price change of 8% underscored the volatility that characterized this segment. The first half of the quarter saw a gradual price incline, culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 4080 per metric ton of Nitrocellulose ex-Jeddah. This figure signals a robust and expanding pricing environment, suggesting that demand dynamics and supply challenges will continue to shape the market in the coming months.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, the North American Nitrocellulose market experienced notable price fluctuations driven by a complex interplay of demand, supply, and the costs associated with imported materials. As the USA remains a net importer of Nitrocellulose, shifts in the global market significantly influenced domestic prices. These fluctuations were intricately linked to the costs of nitric acid, a crucial feedstock, as well as varying supply and demand dynamics within key sectors such as coatings, printing, and cosmetics.
Toward the latter part of the quarter, the market saw a price rebound, propelled by logistical challenges, higher freight costs, and unstable supplies due to geopolitical tensions. This created a nuanced pricing environment, marked by tight supply chains and a resilient demand structure. Within the USA, the Nitrocellulose market showcased pronounced price volatility, with the region experiencing some of the highest price changes. The overall market trends reflected a robust sentiment, with seasonal effects playing a role in the fluctuations.
The observed correlation in price changes underscored the impact of constrained supply and sustained demand across various industrial sectors. This period of rising prices, driven by limited supply channels and increasing demand, highlighted a bullish market sentiment, proving advantageous for stakeholders and marking a significant phase of price elevation in the Nitrocellulose market.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 has been marked by a notable upward trajectory in Nitrocellulose prices across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This escalation can be largely attributed to fluctuating demand conditions, variable supplier quotations, and constrained production output. Market dynamics have been particularly influenced by significant disruptions in shipping capacities, primarily due to congestion in pivotal maritime routes like the Strait of Malacca and the port of Singapore. These logistical challenges, compounded by adverse weather conditions and geopolitical tensions, have driven up ocean freight rates, thereby inflating the cost structure for Nitrocellulose. In India, the price surge has been pronounced, characterized by a consistent bullish sentiment. The automotive sector, despite witnessing a marginal decline in overall sales, saw substantial growth in the three-wheeler segment, thereby bolstering demand for downstream industries such as automotive paints and coatings. Additionally, operational efficiencies were impacted by extreme heatwaves, reducing production volumes and further tightening the supply chain. The Indian market also experienced no significant plant shutdowns, though the low inventory levels exacerbated the price escalation. By the end of Q2 2024, prices for Nitrocellulose Ex-Mumbai in India had reached USD 276000/MT, underscoring a robust positive pricing environment. Overall, the quarter has depicted an increasing trend, driven predominantly by favorable demand conditions and supply-side disruptions.
Europe
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, the European Nitrocellulose market exhibited a varied and complex pattern influenced by several key factors. Price variations in Nitrocellulose were closely linked to fluctuations in the costs of its primary feedstock, nitric acid, as well as changes in supply and demand from downstream sectors such as explosives, printing, and cosmetics. A significant rise in global market prices and increased demand from crucial industries, including rubber and coatings, were major drivers of the price uptick. Geopolitical tensions, and disruptions in freight logistics, exacerbated supply constraints and contributed to higher prices. Despite ongoing economic challenges, a moderate rise in demand for materials led to an increase in Nitrocellulose prices. The market also saw some stabilization due to improved supplier delivery times and increased availability of subcontractors, which helped mitigate potential supply chain disruptions. In Germany, the market reflected a cautious optimism, buoyed by seasonal construction activity and restocking efforts by merchants, which temporarily enhanced demand. The regulatory environment, although stringent, facilitated a clearer pathway for construction projects, further supporting Nitrocellulose consumption. Overall, despite some fluctuations, the market sentiment in Germany remained positive, driven by a strategic response to supply chain issues and a consistent alignment of demand factors. The rising prices were indicative of a market environment that, while variable, trended favorably within the broader context of economic and industrial dynamics.
MEA
The second quarter of 2024 has seen a pronounced upward trend in Nitrocellulose pricing across the MEA region. This surge is attributed to a confluence of factors, prominently featuring constrained shipping capacities from Asia and escalating freight rates, driven by market congestion and tariff evasions by Chinese manufacturers. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Red Sea, have further exacerbated supply chain disruptions, leading to extended transit times and increased costs. Notably, adverse weather conditions in critical Asian hubs have also played a role in magnifying logistical challenges. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the market has experienced the most significant price changes, primarily due to robust demand from key downstream sectors like wood coating and furniture industries, especially in anticipation of Eid-Al-Adha. The Saudi non-oil manufacturing sector has continued its expansion, further propelling Nitrocellulose prices. The latest quarter-ending price for Nitrocellulose Ex-Jeddah stands at USD 3955/MT, reflecting a positive pricing environment bolstered by sustained demand and tight supply conditions. Despite no reported plant shutdowns, the market dynamics remain heavily influenced by external supply chain disruptions, ensuring a consistent upward pressure on prices throughout the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American Nitro Cellulose market experienced price fluctuations influenced by several factors including demand, supply, and the cost of imported materials. Given the USA's status as a net importer, global market shifts in Nitro Cellulose impacted domestic prices.
These price variations were closely tied to changes in the costs of Nitric acid, a key feedstock, as well as shifts in supply and demand from sectors like coatings, printing, and cosmetics. Initially, subdued domestic demand due to extreme weather conditions, particularly an arctic blast, contributed to a relatively stable pricing environment, bolstered by ample global supply.
The market felt the effects of reduced costs of Nitric Acid, exerting downward pressure on Nitro Cellulose prices. However, a mid-quarter surge in demand from the Russian market led to a supply shortage, resulting in depleted inventories and subsequent price adjustments upward on the global scale. Overall, the quarter showcased a dynamic interaction of various factors shaping Nitrocellulose pricing and market dynamics across North America.
APAC
In the APAC region, the pricing environment for Nitro Cellulose in Q1 2024 has been largely negative, with significant price declines observed in India, however, prices rebounded in March. Various factors have influenced market prices, including subdued demand from key sectors such as printing, explosives, and cosmetics. This decrease in demand has been exacerbated by an oversupply situation, both domestically and internationally, particularly in the Saudi Arabian market. The overall market sentiment has been bearish, with high supply levels and low demand contributing to the downward price trend. Specifically in India, the price of Nitro Cellulose experienced a notable decline of 11.3% in January 2024. This decline can be attributed to reduced demand from downstream sectors, as well as subdued inquiries from overseas markets. The market situation remained bearish throughout the quarter, with high supply levels and low demand exerting downward pressure on prices. The negative correlation between supply and demand dynamics has resulted in price fluctuations, with changes in demand from various sectors and regions significantly impacting pricing trends. Nevertheless, the price of Nitrocellulose Ex-Mumbai increased by 2% by the quarter ending in India as the supply has been constrained and demand remained moderate. In conclusion, the pricing environment for Nitro Cellulose in the APAC region, particularly in India, has been negative in Q1 2024. The market has been characterized by high supply levels, subdued demand, and downward price trends.
Europe
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the European Nitrocellulose market experienced a diverse pattern, driven by various factors. Price variations in Nitro Cellulose were primarily linked to shifts in the costs of its feedstock, Nitric acid, alongside fluctuations in supply and demand from downstream industries like explosives, printing, and cosmetics. In the first month of the quarter, both domestic and international demand for Nitrocellulose remained subdued, contributing to a relaxed pricing environment, particularly as the global supply seemed ample. The market saw a notable impact from the easing costs of Nitric Acid, a crucial component in production, exerting downward pressure on Nitro Cellulose prices. However, a surge in demand mid-quarter from the Russian market caused a supply shortage, depleting inventories and prompting sellers to adjust prices upward. Additionally, sustained demand from the US market further supported price increases throughout the quarter. Overall, the period witnessed a dynamic interplay of factors shaping the trajectory of Nitrocellulose pricing and market dynamics in Europe.
MEA
In Q1 2024, the Nitro Cellulose market in the MEA region experienced fluctuating prices, primarily influenced by factors such as demand, supply, and cost of imported materials. The market saw a mix of positive and negative price changes, with Saudi Arabia being the most affected. Overall, the market for Nitro Cellulose in the MEA region faced a challenging quarter. Demand from downstream sectors like printing, packaging, and cosmetics was generally low, leading to a bearish market sentiment. This was further exacerbated by an oversupply situation, with ample stock availability in the domestic market. Additionally, the availability of competitively priced imported material from the Asian region contributed to the downward pressure on prices. In Saudi Arabia specifically, the pricing trend mirrored the overall market situation. Prices declined by 8.1% in January 2024, driven by reduced demand and increased supply. However, there was a slight recovery in February with a 2.2% price increase of Nitro Cellulose Ex-Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, mainly due to an expected surge in demand from the downstream industries. It is important to note that the price changes in Q1 2024 were influenced by various factors and did not follow a consistent trend. The market dynamics, including demand, supply, and cost of imported materials, played a significant role in shaping the pricing environment. Overall, the pricing environment for Nitro Cellulose in the MEA region during this quarter can be characterized as unstable, with fluctuations in prices driven by market conditions.
