For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the North American Nitro Cellulose market experienced price fluctuations influenced by several factors including demand, supply, and the cost of imported materials. Given the USA's status as a net importer, global market shifts in Nitro Cellulose impacted domestic prices.
These price variations were closely tied to changes in the costs of Nitric acid, a key feedstock, as well as shifts in supply and demand from sectors like coatings, printing, and cosmetics. Initially, subdued domestic demand due to extreme weather conditions, particularly an arctic blast, contributed to a relatively stable pricing environment, bolstered by ample global supply.
The market felt the effects of reduced costs of Nitric Acid, exerting downward pressure on Nitro Cellulose prices. However, a mid-quarter surge in demand from the Russian market led to a supply shortage, resulting in depleted inventories and subsequent price adjustments upward on the global scale. Overall, the quarter showcased a dynamic interaction of various factors shaping Nitrocellulose pricing and market dynamics across North America.
APAC
In the APAC region, the pricing environment for Nitro Cellulose in Q1 2024 has been largely negative, with significant price declines observed in India, however, prices rebounded in March. Various factors have influenced market prices, including subdued demand from key sectors such as printing, explosives, and cosmetics. This decrease in demand has been exacerbated by an oversupply situation, both domestically and internationally, particularly in the Saudi Arabian market. The overall market sentiment has been bearish, with high supply levels and low demand contributing to the downward price trend. Specifically in India, the price of Nitro Cellulose experienced a notable decline of 11.3% in January 2024. This decline can be attributed to reduced demand from downstream sectors, as well as subdued inquiries from overseas markets. The market situation remained bearish throughout the quarter, with high supply levels and low demand exerting downward pressure on prices. The negative correlation between supply and demand dynamics has resulted in price fluctuations, with changes in demand from various sectors and regions significantly impacting pricing trends. Nevertheless, the price of Nitrocellulose Ex-Mumbai increased by 2% by the quarter ending in India as the supply has been constrained and demand remained moderate. In conclusion, the pricing environment for Nitro Cellulose in the APAC region, particularly in India, has been negative in Q1 2024. The market has been characterized by high supply levels, subdued demand, and downward price trends.
Europe
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the European Nitrocellulose market experienced a diverse pattern, driven by various factors. Price variations in Nitro Cellulose were primarily linked to shifts in the costs of its feedstock, Nitric acid, alongside fluctuations in supply and demand from downstream industries like explosives, printing, and cosmetics. In the first month of the quarter, both domestic and international demand for Nitrocellulose remained subdued, contributing to a relaxed pricing environment, particularly as the global supply seemed ample. The market saw a notable impact from the easing costs of Nitric Acid, a crucial component in production, exerting downward pressure on Nitro Cellulose prices. However, a surge in demand mid-quarter from the Russian market caused a supply shortage, depleting inventories and prompting sellers to adjust prices upward. Additionally, sustained demand from the US market further supported price increases throughout the quarter. Overall, the period witnessed a dynamic interplay of factors shaping the trajectory of Nitrocellulose pricing and market dynamics in Europe.
MEA
In Q1 2024, the Nitro Cellulose market in the MEA region experienced fluctuating prices, primarily influenced by factors such as demand, supply, and cost of imported materials. The market saw a mix of positive and negative price changes, with Saudi Arabia being the most affected. Overall, the market for Nitro Cellulose in the MEA region faced a challenging quarter. Demand from downstream sectors like printing, packaging, and cosmetics was generally low, leading to a bearish market sentiment. This was further exacerbated by an oversupply situation, with ample stock availability in the domestic market. Additionally, the availability of competitively priced imported material from the Asian region contributed to the downward pressure on prices. In Saudi Arabia specifically, the pricing trend mirrored the overall market situation. Prices declined by 8.1% in January 2024, driven by reduced demand and increased supply. However, there was a slight recovery in February with a 2.2% price increase of Nitro Cellulose Ex-Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, mainly due to an expected surge in demand from the downstream industries. It is important to note that the price changes in Q1 2024 were influenced by various factors and did not follow a consistent trend. The market dynamics, including demand, supply, and cost of imported materials, played a significant role in shaping the pricing environment. Overall, the pricing environment for Nitro Cellulose in the MEA region during this quarter can be characterized as unstable, with fluctuations in prices driven by market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Throughout the final quarter of 2023, the Nitrocellulose market in the United States experienced a positive trend, steadily rising on a monthly basis. The notable increase in product prices during this period was primarily attributed to elevated production costs, directly influenced by the fluctuating price of the essential feedstock, Nitric Acid.
This surge in Nitric Acid prices contributed to an overall escalation in production expenses. The sustained and robust demand, particularly from sectors such as automotive, paints, and construction, played a pivotal role in supporting the upward trajectory of prices. In December, regional inventories saw a reduction due to heightened inquiries, prompting sellers to adjust their prices in response to market dynamics. Furthermore, the surge in shipping costs was linked to ongoing disruptions at the Panama Canal, a crucial shortcut connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
The canal's operations were adversely affected by a drought fueled by El Niño, leading to historically low water levels. Consequently, shipping companies found themselves compelled to incur significant expenses to expedite their passage through the canal or opt for longer, alternative routes. This added strain on shipping costs contributed to the overall market dynamics in the final quarter of 2023.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Nitrocellulose market in the APAC region experienced fluctuations influenced by various factors. The market witnessed heightened demand during the festive season across several countries, including India, particularly in industries such as automotive, construction, and textiles. This festive demand exerted an upward pressure on prices. Concurrently, the global decline in Crude oil prices had a generally decreasing impact on chemical commodities, but in India, the robust festive demand outweighed this global trend, contributing to an upward price trend. Stable supplies and the absence of reported plant shutdowns ensured a consistent availability of Nitrocellulose in the market. The sustained high demand, especially from industries like automotive, paints, and personal care, supported the upward trajectory in prices. In December, regional inventories decreased due to increased inquiries, prompting sellers to adjust prices in line with market dynamics. The automotive sector notably experienced substantial growth in sales, with a year-on-year increase of 21 percent in December, as reported by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA). This surge in demand within the automotive sector contributed to the overall increased demand for Nitrocellulose. Additionally, the improved overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in India, from 4.87% in October to 5.55% in November, indicated positive economic momentum during this period. The quarter-ending price for Nitrocellulose Ex-Mumbai in India stood at USD 3400/MT, reflecting the dynamics of demand, supply, and global trends that shaped the market during Q4 2023.
Europe
Throughout the last quarter of 2023, the Nitrocellulose market in Europe displayed a positive trend, steadily increasing on a monthly basis. The surge in product prices during this period was primarily linked to heightened production costs, directly influenced by the fluctuating price of the essential feedstock, Nitric Acid. This increase in Nitric Acid prices resulted in an overall rise in production expenses. The enduring and robust demand, particularly from sectors like automotive, paints, and construction, played a crucial role in bolstering the upward trajectory of prices. In December, regional inventories experienced a decline due to heightened inquiries, prompting sellers to adjust their prices in accordance with market dynamics. Moreover, supply disruptions in the Red Sea, caused by Houthi rebels, impacted shipping routes and led to increased freight rates. As a consequence, shipping companies found themselves compelled to incur substantial expenses to expedite their passage and explore longer, alternative routes. This additional strain on shipping costs contributed to the overall market dynamics in the concluding quarter of 2023, adding a layer of complexity to the economic landscape of the Nitrocellulose industry in Europe.
MEA
The fourth quarter of 2023 has followed a bullish trend for the Nitrocellulose market in the Middle Eastern region. The demand for Nitrocellulose remained high, particularly from the automotive and construction industries. This strong demand can be attributed to healthy inquiries and an increase in sales volume. Further, the market experienced a moderate supply of Nitrocellulose, which contributed to the higher prices. Lastly, the reliance on imports from a major exporter, India, played a crucial role in shaping the market dynamics and keeping prices at a higher end. In terms of specific countries, Saudi Arabia witnessed the most significant changes in Nitrocellulose prices. The country experienced a consecutive surge in prices during October, driven by an unexpected surge in demand from the automotive industry. Overall, the Nitrocellulose market in the Middle East region experienced a dynamic fourth quarter of 2023, with high demand, moderate supply, and significant price fluctuations. The latest quarter-ending price of Nitro Cellulose Ex-Jeddah in Saudi Arabia was USD 3960/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Compared with the second quarter, the market for Nitro Cellulose established a healthy scenario in the USA during the third quarter. However, marginal fluctuations were observed during this timeframe where the prices admitted a bullish trend for two straight consecutive two months under the influence of demand from the other end-use industries while declining in September amidst ample product availability leading to depreciating costs of Nitro Cellulose in the USA. During July, few reports suggested a marginal supply disturbance across the country due to Tornados in the USA, which hit California and other areas. However, the impact of the same remained negligible in the market of Nitro Cellulose. In terms of economic data, as per FRED data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2% in August from the previous month, which further supported the bullish trend as consumers were involved in stocking practices. On the contrary, during September, the inquiries slowed down slightly as sufficient material availability was present in the domestic market which catered to the demand for Niro Cellulose in the US market.
APAC
The nitrocellulose market in India experienced mixed pricing trends in the third quarter of 2023. The market began the quarter on a strong note, with prices rising amid increased demand from a variety of industries. Despite the monsoon season, the demand for Nitrocellulose from the Automotive and Ink industry in India remained muted. However, the rise in the prices was observed during this timeframe amid the healthy inquiries from the overseas market which surged the price trend unexpectedly in the Indian market. In the first month, prices rose because of increased purchases of higher-priced Nitro Cellulose from European markets. However, the market began to cool in the second month of the quarter, as domestic producers of India increased production to meet the current demand for Nitrocellulose. This led to a surplus of the product in the market, which drove prices down. Additionally, the downstream industries began to experience slower growth, which further reduced demand for Nitro Cellulose. As of September 2023, the prices of Nitro Cellulose Ex-Mumbai, India rebounded nearing the festive season and assessed at USD 3126 per tonne.
Europe
The prices of Nitro Cellulose witnessed a mixed market situation in Europe with prices surging in the first two months of the third quarter amid strong demand from the overseas market, while reduced during September. The robust performance from the downstream industries, including paints and coatings, printing inks, and pharmaceuticals from the importing country, which is the USA, elevated the price trend of Nitro Cellulose in Germany during July. August showcased positive development in the market situation, and the demand conditions improved. Purchases from major consumer nations, including the USA, registered increased inquiries within this timeframe. Additionally, the holiday season of August 2023 led the traders of the European market to labor shortages which eventually decreased the manufacturing activities within the region and further influenced the market condition. However, slight fluctuations in the market values of Nitro Cellulose were observed during September when the European traders offered discounts on spot purchases to the USA to stimulate sales as the ample product availability resulted in muted demand for the product within this timeframe.
