For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the NBR market in the North American region, particularly the USA, saw significant price volatility. The quarter began with a surge in NBR prices due to strong demand from the automotive sector, fueled by robust sales and limited production capacity. This occurred despite lower crude oil and butadiene costs, highlighting the strength of the demand-side pressure. Rising acrylonitrile (ACN) prices in key importing countries further supported price increases.
However, as the year progressed into November and December, the market shifted. A seasonal slowdown, coupled with reduced procurement and destocking activities, led to oversupply and a decrease in prices. Several manufacturers even scheduled plant shutdowns to manage excess inventory. While some price recovery occurred in late December due to inventory depletion, the overall trend reflected a significant price swing.
The automotive sector’s performance played a crucial role, initially boosting demand and prices. Fluctuations in ACN and butadiene costs also contributed to the volatility. Seasonal factors and destocking activities further shaped the market dynamics.
Market participants faced a volatile pricing environment, impacting both producers and buyers. Producers struggled with capacity constraints and pricing uncertainty. Buyers experienced fluctuating costs, making it challenging to manage budgets and project pricing. The quarter ended with NBR 41%-66% priced at USD 3230/MT CFR Los Angeles.
APAC
The APAC NBR market, particularly in South Korea, experienced price volatility in Q4 2024, driven by fluctuating demand and supply dynamics.
October saw a price increase despite lower crude oil and butadiene costs, primarily due to strong automotive demand in South Korea, limited production capacity, and rising acrylonitrile (ACN) prices. This positive trend reversed in November, with prices declining due to a seasonal slowdown, weaker consumer confidence, decreased automotive sales, and a bearish butadiene market. December saw prices stabilize, with normal plant operations but limited demand and rising butadiene costs resulting in moderate trading and tight supply for some brands. The overall market reflected a cautious outlook for the coming year.
The automotive sector's performance significantly influenced NBR prices, with strong sales in October and weaker sales in November affecting demand. Fluctuations in ACN and butadiene costs, seasonal factors, and inventory levels all played a role in shaping market dynamics.
Market participants faced uncertainty due to fluctuating demand and prices. Producers navigated capacity constraints and volatile costs. Buyers dealt with unpredictable pricing, impacting budgeting and planning. The interplay between global and regional factors added complexity. The quarter ended with NBR 33%-38% FOB Busan priced at USD 2120/MT FOB Busan.
Europe
The European NBR market, particularly in Germany, experienced fluctuating prices in Q4 2024, driven by competing forces of supply and demand, mirroring global trends.
The quarter began with a price increase in October, despite lower crude oil and butadiene costs. This was fueled by strong automotive demand in Germany, limited production capacity, and rising acrylonitrile (ACN) prices in key exporting countries like South Korea and Japan. However, this bullish trend reversed in November as the automotive sector's growth slowed, and a seasonal slowdown led to higher inventories and reduced trading activity. This resulted in lower prices despite rising ACN costs. December saw prices stabilize, impacted by ongoing sluggish demand, normal plant operations, and rising butadiene costs, leading to moderate trading.
The automotive sector’s performance played a crucial role, with initial strong demand driving October's price increase and subsequent slowdown contributing to the November decline. Fluctuations in ACN and butadiene costs also significantly influenced prices, while seasonal factors affected inventory levels and trading activity.
Market participants faced significant uncertainty. Producers dealt with fluctuating demand and pricing, while buyers struggled with volatile costs and inventory management. The interplay of global and regional factors, particularly the impact of Asian markets on supply and pricing, added to the challenges. The quarter concluded with NBR 18%-40% priced at USD 2470/MT CFR Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) market in North America experienced a downward trend in pricing, with the USA being the most affected. This quarter has been challenging for NBR due to various factors influencing market prices.
The primary cause of this decline was found to be poor domestic demand along with cautious market behaviour. At the same time, supply fundamentals have remained stable over the last few weeks, with constant supplies. Not only do suppliers have a sufficient supply of the goods, but so do buyers, resulting in downward pressure on NBR pricing. Additionally, the decline in crude oil prices and uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions have contributed to the negative price trend.
The 4% change from the previous quarter in 2024 indicated a continuation of the price decline. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a -2% change which further emphasized the consistent decrease in NBR prices. The latest quarter-ending price of USD 3170/MT for NBR 41%-66% CFR Los Angeles in the USA showcased the prevailing negative sentiment in the pricing environment.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) market in the Asia-Pacific region witnessed a significant decline in prices. This quarter was characterized by a multitude of factors influencing market dynamics. The domestic market for NBR appeared to be sluggish implying that customers were not actively looking to buy the commodity. The lack of demand put downward pressure on pricing. Despite the drop in demand, the supply of NBR remained stable. The commodity excess contributed to reduced prices since sellers were eager to provide discounts to draw in buyers. Market participants took a cautious approach, most likely owing to uncertainties about future economic conditions or price swings. The hesitation has resulted in decreased demand for NBR. Reduced demand from various downstream construction and automotive sectors, cautious market behavior, and a surplus of NBR supply were the primary drivers behind the price decrease. However, Japan stood out with the most significant price changes in the region. The overall trend in Japan reflected a consistent decrease in NBR prices, aligning with the regional sentiment. There was a slight improvement from the previous quarter in 2024, with a 7% increase. Interestingly, comparing the first and second half of the quarter, there was a minimal decrease of 2% in prices. The quarter-ending price for NBR 36%-43% FOB Osaka in Japan settled at USD 2165/MT, underlining the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) pricing landscape in Europe witnessed a downward trend. This decline was primarily influenced by factors such as subdued demand from downstream industries, including the automotive and construction sectors, coupled with limited procurement activities. The market conditions were characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand. While suppliers have ample inventory, weak domestic demand and cautious market sentiment have limited the consumption of available products. This imbalance has created downward pressure on prices, indicating a challenging environment for NBR producers and buyers alike. The market sentiment was further dampened by ongoing inflationary pressures, which constrained consumer spending and overall demand for NBR. In France, the region experiencing the most significant price changes, NBR prices saw a 3% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. The correlation in price changes indicated a slight decline of 1% between the first and second half of the quarter. Overall, the pricing environment in France reflected a negative sentiment, with prices ending the quarter at USD 2390/MT of NBR 18%- 40% FOB Marseille. This consistent downward trajectory underscored the challenging market conditions and the impact of macroeconomic factors on NBR pricing dynamics.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American market for Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) has experienced an uptick in prices. This escalation has been influenced by several key factors, including heightened geopolitical tensions, increased crude oil prices, and elevated freight rates. Elevated crude oil prices have resulted in higher manufacturing costs, thereby pushing NBR prices upwards.
Geopolitical disturbances, specifically in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, have further exacerbated supply chain disruptions, leading to increased shipping costs and longer transit times. Additionally, spot ocean freight rates from the Far East to North America surged, adding further pressure on the market.
Focusing on the USA, which saw the most significant price changes, the market exhibited bullish sentiment throughout the quarter. Seasonal demand from the automotive and construction sectors contributed to the rising prices, despite moderate supply levels. The quarter concluded with NBR 41%-66% CFR Los Angeles prices at USD 3200 per metric ton. Overall, the pricing environment for NBR in North America, particularly in the USA, has been positive, driven by strong market fundamentals and external economic pressures.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) market in the APAC region has experienced considerable volatility, marked by a pronounced uptrend in prices. This quarter has seen a significant increase in NBR prices driven by multiple factors. Key among these is the rising cost of upstream Butadiene, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, leading to higher international crude oil prices. Additionally, increased freight rates due to port congestion and vessel shortages have further compounded the price hikes. The automotive sector's steady demand, despite economic uncertainties in major markets such as China and the cautious stance of the US Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts, has also provided strong market support. Focusing on Japan, where the most substantial price changes were observed, the NBR market dynamics have been notably bullish. Seasonality played a role as summer months typically increase fuel demand, contributing to higher crude oil prices. The correlation between rising raw material costs and manufacturing expenses has been direct, reflecting in the NBR price surge. The latest quarter-ending price for Japan is USD 2175/MT for NBR 36%-43% FOB Osaka. Overall, the pricing environment for NBR in the APAC region during Q2 2024 has been predominantly positive, characterized by supply chain challenges, and escalating raw material costs. This confluence of factors underscores the market's upward price momentum, albeit within a volatile economic landscape.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) market in Europe exhibited a dynamic pricing landscape, driven by a combination of demand fluctuations, supply chain constraints, and macroeconomic factors. This quarter has seen a notable stabilization in NBR prices, influenced significantly by moderate demand from downstream industries such as automotive and construction. The availability of finished goods was sufficient to meet market needs, although operating rates at manufacturing firms haven't returned to pre-downturn levels. Additionally, persistent inflation in services and fluctuations in crude oil prices contributed to the nuanced pricing environment. The European Central Bank's measures to address inflation, alongside geopolitical factors impacting shipping routes and costs, also played a crucial role in shaping market dynamics. In Germany, the NBR market saw the most significant price changes, reflecting broader economic trends. The overall trend in Germany was one of gradual price increases, with seasonal factors and supply chain adjustments exerting pressure on prices. The quarter-ending price for NBR 18%-40% CFR Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 2490/MT, reflecting a positive sentiment in the pricing environment. This increase is indicative of a cautiously optimistic market outlook, driven by improving demand and strategic supply management.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) prices in North America have experienced a mixed trend in the first quarter of 2024. Several factors have influenced the market prices, including weak demand from the downstream automotive industries, reduced industrial activity, and the persistent inflationary pressures.
The inflow of new inquiries from the downstream Automotive industries has remained average. As per the market sources, US new vehicle sales of 1,082,620 units for January represented a decrease of 25.6% from December 2023 and an increase of 2.2% from one year ago in January 2023, further weakening the demand dynamics for upstream raw materials, including Nitrile Butadiene Rubber. Concerns regarding the supply of Crude Oil, stemming from production cuts by OPEC+ nations, have also posed challenges for the downstream industries.
Throughout the quarter, there has been a stable pricing environment, with no significant changes observed between the first and second half of the quarter. This stability can be attributed to the subdued market sentiment and limited demand for NBR. The quarter-ending price for NBR 41%-66% CFR Los Angeles in the USA is recorded at USD 2960 per metric ton, reflecting the decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
APAC
The first quarter of 2024 has seen a significant decrease in prices for Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) in the APAC region. Several factors have influenced this downward trend, including weak demand from the downstream automotive and construction sectors, as well as reduced inquiries from major importing countries such as China. The market has also been affected by higher Crude Oil prices, which have increased manufacturing costs for NBR. Overall, the pricing environment for NBR in the APAC region has been negative during this quarter. As per the market sources, the inflow of new inquiries from the downstream automotive industries has remained moderate reported by market participants. Most of the market transactions were based on smaller orders. According to data released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, new vehicle sales in Japan declined by 21% to 451,444 units in March 2024 from 572,494 units a year earlier, pressuring the market sentiments of Nitrile Butadiene Rubber. Japan has experienced the most significant price changes, with a decrease of 44% compared to the same quarter last year. The price drop from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 14%. In Japan, NBR prices have remained stable in recent weeks, with a quarter-ending price of USD 1890/MT for NBR 36%-43% FOB Osaka. This reflects the overall decreasing sentiment in the market.
Europe
In Q1 2024, Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) prices in the European region experienced a significant decrease. Various factors contributed to this downward price trend. Weak demand from the downstream automotive sector was a major factor. Furthermore, high inflation rates, rising interest rates, and elevated gas and electricity prices in the EU impacted the purchasing power of end-use industries, further weakening demand for NBR. In Germany, the demand from the downstream construction and automotive industries for Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (NBR) was moderate, resulting in average procurement levels. According to market sources, sales of new cars in Germany declined in March. The KBA federal transport authority reported that a total of 263,844 new cars were registered in Europe's largest economy last month, down 6.2% from the same period a year earlier. Towards the end of the first quarter, Germany's construction sector experienced a significant decline, with builders expressing pessimism due to weak demand caused by high interest rates and economic instability. Germany, in particular, saw the maximum price changes during this quarter. NBR prices in Germany decreased by 34% compared to the same quarter last year and by 13% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a 3% decrease. The quarter-ending price for NBR 18%-40% CFR Hamburg in Germany was recorded at USD 2400/MT.
