For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The U.S. Natural Rubber market in Q4 2024 witnessed a fluctuating yet predominantly upward price trajectory, marked by supply chain constraints, rising raw material costs, and geopolitical disruptions. In October, seasonal demand from downstream industries and elevated shipping costs from Asian suppliers drove significant price hikes. Supply chain challenges, including strikes, limited domestic production, and extended delivery times, further strained inventories. Strategic stockpiling and rising Latex prices amplified the upward trend.
November saw a temporary price correction as inventories rebounded, competitive supplier strategies aligned with holiday demand, and record-high cargo processing eased pressures. However, concerns over looming tariff increases and disrupted port operations kept the market volatile.
December brought intensified pressures due to labor disputes, logistical bottlenecks, and preemptive inventory building ahead of potential trade policy changes under the incoming administration. Despite declining manufacturing activity and subdued demand, businesses faced heightened costs and distribution challenges. Overall, Q4 reflected a fundamental shift in the U.S. Natural Rubber market’s equilibrium, with sustained price volatility fueled by structural supply chain vulnerabilities and economic uncertainty heading into 2025.
Asia Pacific
Vietnam's Natural Rubber prices demonstrated notable volatility, influenced by fluctuating supply-demand dynamics, global uncertainties, and local market adjustments. In October 2024, Natural Rubber prices in Vietnam surged due to tight supply, robust demand from the pharmaceutical industry, and seasonal procurement pressures. Limited Latex availability further intensified supply constraints, propelling prices higher in both local and global markets.
November brought a slight decline in prices as supply chain adjustments and improved weather conditions in key production regions boosted raw material availability. Rising inventories created downward pressure, while stable downstream tire production offered modest support. However, destocking efforts exacerbated oversupply, prolonging the market's bearish sentiment. Vietnam's Manufacturing PMI declined marginally to 50.8 but continued to indicate growth for the second month.
December saw a sharp rebound in Natural Rubber prices, driven by weather-related supply shortages, strong export performance, and heightened demand from automotive and manufacturing sectors. Vietnam’s record-high export values solidified its position as a key global supplier, despite external pressures such as geopolitical tensions and China's economic slowdown.
Europe
Overall Trend of Q4 2024 showcased Volatile and downward, marked by an initial surge followed by a bearish trajectory. October witnessed a sharp price increase driven by high seasonal demand from downstream sectors, escalating shipping costs from Asia, and rising fuel prices. Supply chain disruptions, limited domestic production, and prolonged delivery timelines forced traders to explore alternative logistics, while rising Latex prices amplified production costs. Strong export demand further intensified price pressures.
In November, the market reversed, entering a bearish phase due to weak demand, oversupply, and favorable production conditions. Reduced Eurozone business activity and high inventories led manufacturers to implement aggressive price cuts, reinforcing the downward trend. Spot market activity remained subdued as subdued demand persisted.
The quarter highlighted structural challenges, including reduced Chinese export volumes, blank sailings limiting logistics capacity, and robust seasonal demand. These disruptions created a seller’s market, forcing buyers to accept premium pricing. To navigate this, market participants must prioritize supply chain resilience and adjust procurement strategies to balance cost and supply security effectively amidst a rapidly shifting landscape.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, North America saw a significant rise in Natural Rubber prices, driven by increased global demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions. Factors such as rising production costs, geopolitical tensions, and natural disasters tightened the supply-demand balance across the market. Additionally, shutdowns at key production facilities reduced supply, further intensifying price dynamics.
Adverse weather in Southeast Asia, particularly heavy rainfall, slowed the rubber cutting process, limiting raw material availability and pushing prices higher. In the USA, price increases were notably steep, with heightened raw material costs, particularly for Latex, a primary component of Natural Rubber.
The US dollar’s depreciation against the Chinese yuan and higher shipping rates due to limited vessel availability added pressure to the market. As a result, the price of Natural Latex Rubber (DRC 60% H.A.) reached USD 2190/MT CFR Houston by the end of Q3. This quarter-ending figure reflects an optimistic price environment for Natural Rubber, signaling a stable outlook amid persistent demand and constrained supply conditions across North America.
Asia Pacific
In the third quarter of 2024, the Natural Rubber market in China exhibited significant volatility. July saw a notable price decline driven by various economic, geopolitical, and seasonal factors. The appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar diminished arbitrage opportunities for exporters, leading to increased domestic supply and reduced global competitiveness. Additionally, geopolitical tensions disrupted trade flows, raising freight costs and reducing demand domestically and internationally, resulting in an oversupply situation.
Seasonal shutdowns of manufacturing plants prompted inventory liquidations, particularly for heat-sensitive products, while declining raw material costs, especially for Latex, added downward pressure on prices. Conversely, August experienced a significant price surge, propelled by resilient demand from end-user sectors and strong regional and international quotations. Severe weather conditions disrupted production, further tightening supply.
The yuan's appreciation improved the competitiveness of Chinese exports, while a rebound in the Latex market saw rising prices supported by futures markets. By September, preemptive purchasing ahead of production resumption and heightened seasonal demand in the food and pharmaceutical sectors led to further price hikes, illustrating the turbulent dynamics of the Natural Rubber market throughout the quarter.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Natural Rubber market experienced notable price fluctuations driven by various factors. The quarter began with declining prices in July, primarily due to lower production costs in key manufacturing regions, prompting buyers to delay purchases in anticipation of further drops. This created a demand slowdown, while companies liquidated inventories to reduce storage costs, exerting additional downward pressure on prices.
However, the market dynamics shifted in August, particularly in the Netherlands, where prices surged due to increased local demand and export needs. Contributing to this volatility were supply disruptions from China, caused by higher production costs, natural disasters, and geopolitical tensions. A weaker USD further raised import costs, and rising crude oil prices added to supply chain expenses. Seasonal buying activity ahead of the Zhongyuan Festival, combined with low inventories, intensified market pressures, leading to significant price increases.
Maintenance shutdowns and escalating latex costs also impacted pricing. By the end of the quarter, the market had shown resilience, with an ending price of USD 1900/MT for Natural Latex Rubber (DRC 60% H.A.) CFR Rotterdam in the Netherlands, reflecting a strong upward trend in prices despite earlier challenges.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, Natural Rubber prices in North America experienced a notable uptrend due to a combination of supply constraints, increased demand, and logistical disruptions. Persistent supply chain interruptions, including plant shutdowns and operational halts, have created significant bottlenecks, restricted market supply and driving prices higher. Additionally, rising transportation costs, fueled by geopolitical tensions and elevated fuel prices, have further strained the supply chain.
In the USA, the most pronounced price volatility has been observed. The country’s dependence on imports and reduced inventories have heightened price sensitivity. Seasonal factors, such as peak shipping periods and pre-election stockpiling, have contributed to price increases. While the first half of the quarter saw a moderate rise, the latter half experienced a sharp escalation, resulting in a 10% overall price increase.
By the end of the quarter, the price of Natural Latex Rubber (DRC 60% H.A.) CFR Houston in the USA had reached USD 2030/MT. This reflects a consistent bullish trend with an average quarterly increase of 5.27%, indicative of ongoing supply-demand imbalances and a generally positive pricing environment amidst persistent market challenges.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, the APAC region saw a substantial increase in Natural Rubber prices due to several converging factors. Robust demand significantly outpaced limited supply, while rising input costs, particularly driven by increased energy expenses, further fueled the price surge. Geopolitical tensions and persistent supply chain disruptions exacerbated the situation, leading to higher freight charges and procurement costs. Additionally, adverse weather conditions negatively impacted rubber tapping activities, tightening supply and pushing prices higher. The decrease in inventory levels, driven by heightened consumption in downstream industries, further reinforced the bullish market sentiment.
China experienced the most pronounced price volatility within the region, reflecting broader trends affecting the Natural Rubber market. The post-Lunar New Year market reopening and the introduction of new inventories sparked a surge in demand. Simultaneously, production constraints in key rubber-producing areas intensified the scarcity of raw materials, amplifying price pressures. This period saw a notable correlation between seasonality and price movements, with increased inquiries from international markets also contributing to the upward trend due to ongoing supply disruptions.
By the end of Q2 2024, the price of Natural Latex Rubber (DRC 60% H.A.) FOB Shanghai had risen to USD 2035/MT, marking an average quarterly increase of 2.60%. This consistent upward trajectory highlights a positive pricing environment driven by persistent supply limitations and escalating demand across various sectors.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Natural Rubber market experienced notable price escalations due to a combination of factors. Key manufacturing hubs faced elevated production costs, driving market prices upwards. Demand from downstream sectors varied but generally remained strong, enhancing procurement interest and boosting purchasing activities. Supply chain disruptions, including the Panama Canal drought and logistical issues related to the Houthis' campaign, further exacerbated price increases through vessel delays and container shortages.
In the Netherlands, the most significant price fluctuations were observed, with an overall upward trend throughout the quarter. Seasonal factors, particularly adverse weather in major producing regions such as Yunnan and Hainan, contributed to raw material shortages. The interplay between constrained supply and rising demand was evident, as regional orders drove prices higher. The price increase from the first to the second half of the quarter was substantial, with a 22% rise highlighting the ongoing market pressure.
By the quarter's end, Natural Latex Rubber (DRC 60% H.A.) CFR Rotterdam was priced at USD 1730/MT, reflecting a consistent upward trend with a 6.06% average quarterly increase. The market sentiment remains positive, driven by robust demand and limited supply conditions, underscoring the persistent strength in pricing.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
During the first quarter of 2024, the Natural rubber market in North America experienced notable price fluctuations influenced by several factors, resulting in a volatile pricing environment. The quarter concluded with Natural rubber priced at USD 1740/MT CFR Houston, showing an average quarterly increase of 9.39%.
A significant driver of these price changes was the sustained demand from the downstream sector, prompting bulk orders and subsequent proactive price hikes by market participants. Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, such as disturbances in crucial shipping routes like the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, also played a role in the price volatility. These disruptions led to higher freight charges and logistical bottlenecks, further impacting pricing dynamics. North America's heavy reliance on Natural rubber imports, particularly from China, was a notable factor influencing market trends. Fluctuations in Chinese production, including pauses during the Lunar New Year and Spring Festival, resulted in constrained shipments and limited US inventories, prompting market players to adjust their quotes to protect profit margins.
In exporting regions, prices surged due to insufficient inventories and delayed supplies, prompting US market players to make bulk orders to ensure ample stocks, which worsened the price hike. External factors like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's warning of potential Mississippi River bottlenecks for the third year in a row due to warm, dry spring weather and low winter snowpack added to worries about shipment disruptions. This led to increased inquiries from US market players to exporting nations, further driving up prices.
Asia Pacific
In Q1 2024, the Natural rubber market in the APAC region, particularly in China, experienced notable price fluctuations but maintained an optimistic trend, with prices steadily rising. By the end of the quarter, Natural rubber's price in China reached USD 1885/MT FOB Shanghai, showing an average quarterly increase of 2.13%.
This positive pricing trend was driven by several factors. Increased demand from downstream sectors, along with rising raw material costs like Natural latex, contributed to the price hike. Limited supply and transportation challenges further pushed prices up. International demand also intensified, especially after the Lunar New Year break, stimulating a resurgence in the market. Despite temporary slowdowns during the holiday period, both regional and global interest in Natural rubber bounced back strongly. A robust export market in China supported prices, although transportation delays and higher shipping costs due to increased demand posed challenges. Overall, the market is experiencing price increases due to scarcity, with demand outpacing supply, indicating a need for market equilibrium. Moreover, external factors such as trade disruptions in the Red Sea have exacerbated the situation, resulting in escalated freight costs and diminishing foreign orders.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the European market for Natural rubber, particularly in CFR Rotterdam, Germany, experienced pricing fluctuations influenced by several factors. Despite concluding at USD 1460/MT with a modest 7.67% quarterly incline, the market generally trended upwards due to heightened demand from downstream sectors. This demand surge, along with global supply chain disruptions, especially in the Red Sea region, caused shipment delays and material shortages, thereby driving prices up. Currency fluctuations, such as the Euro's depreciation against the dollar, further complicated matters, impacting import costs and freight charges.
The German Natural rubber market experienced a significant recovery, marked by rising prices and a balanced supply-demand scenario. This resurgence was fueled by increased regional orders and a gradual reduction in inventory levels by merchants. Additionally, the rise in prices of crucial raw materials and the Euro's devaluation against the dollar played roles in shaping market dynamics.
Germany's position as a major importing hub contributed to market conditions, closely linked to exporting nations' trends. The resumption of production in exporting countries after holiday breaks and the easing of trade disruptions further supported market resilience across importing nations. Overall, the Natural rubber market in Europe experienced fluctuations driven by demand spikes, supply chain disruptions, and currency fluctuations, with Germany's market playing a pivotal role in regional dynamics.
