For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Natural Rubber (TSR) market experienced dynamic trends in Q4 2024, influenced by global supply constraints and fluctuating demand. In October, the market witnessed a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Adverse weather conditions in Southeast Asia, including heavy rainfall and flooding, disrupted rubber tapping and tightened supply, driving production costs higher. However, speculative trading and profit-taking introduced volatility, causing slight price corrections later in the month.
In November, bearish sentiments emerged as improved weather in exporting nations increased raw material availability, leading to lower import costs. The automotive sector, despite improved sales, exhibited cautious purchasing due to sufficient inventory levels, further dampening demand for natural rubber.
By December, the market reversed its earlier declines, driven by tightening supplies from Southeast Asia, where severe flooding caused significant reductions in rubber output. Supply disruptions coupled with rising import costs contributed to bullish market sentiments. Improved performance in the downstream automotive sector further supported demand. Overall, the US Natural Rubber market in Q4 2024 reflected the interplay of global supply challenges, cautious purchasing behaviors, and fluctuating downstream demand.
APAC
The Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC region experienced mixed trends in Q4 2024, driven by dynamic supply and demand factors. In October, adverse weather conditions caused significant disruptions to rubber tapping, leading to supply constraints and an initial bullish market sentiment. However, speculative selling, profit-taking, and weaker-than-expected demand from China amid economic challenges created volatility, resulting in a slight decline by the month's end. The temporary delay in implementing the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) provided some relief to suppliers. In November, improved weather conditions early in the month allowed rubber-tapping to resume, leading to increased raw material availability. However, heavy rainfall later disrupted harvesting again, while limited demand from China and Europe, coupled with sufficient inventory levels, contributed to bearish market trends. Initiatives like the Rubber Delayed Sales project launched by the Rubber Authority of Thailand aimed to stabilize prices and support farmers. In December, the market rebounded as heavy rains disrupted production again, tightening supplies. This, combined with a resurgence in international orders and increased procurement activities from the automotive sector, contributed to bullish market sentiment, highlighting the interplay between environmental factors, supply dynamics, and global demand.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the European region exhibited fluctuating trends, driven by supply chain disruptions, regulatory changes, and global economic factors. In October, bullish sentiments dominated due to supply shortages caused by adverse weather in Southeast Asia, where heavy rains and flooding disrupted rubber tapping. These disruptions tightened supply, which, combined with delays in the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), supported market optimism. However, speculative selling and profit-taking introduced volatility, resulting in a slight downturn by the end of the month. November witnessed a bearish shift as improved weather conditions in Southeast Asia temporarily boosted supply. Despite subsequent weather disruptions, ample inventories in Europe and cautious purchasing behavior among market participants kept demand subdued. Meanwhile, the delay in EUDR implementation provided temporary relief but did not significantly impact overall market dynamics. In December, the market rebounded due to tightening supply caused by heavy rains in key exporting regions and increased import costs. Despite challenges such as port congestion and a slowdown in Germany’s automotive sector, bullish sentiments prevailed as market players adjusted to supply constraints and regulatory uncertainties.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Natural Rubber (TSR) market experienced a sharp upward trend, with the USA seeing the most pronounced price fluctuations. Several factors contributed to this surge in prices. Supply chain disruptions, particularly caused by adverse weather conditions in key producing regions, played a significant role in limiting the availability of Natural Rubber. This was compounded by increased production costs due to rising labor and raw material expenses. The automotive sector, a major consumer of Natural Rubber, also witnessed a rise in demand, further straining the already tight supply.
Additionally, plant shutdowns in major producing areas exacerbated the supply crunch, forcing suppliers to increase prices. The competition between Natural Rubber and synthetic alternatives intensified, further driving up demand and contributing to the price rise. The USA experienced a 19% price disparity between the first and second half of the quarter, underscoring the volatile nature of the market during this period.
By the end of Q3, Natural Rubber TSR 10 was priced at USD 2140/MT CFR Texas. The overall pricing environment was characterized by a bullish sentiment, as market players responded to supply constraints, higher production costs, and strong demand from key sectors. This highlighted the market's resilience amid challenging conditions and price pressures.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC Region experienced a notable uptrend in prices, driven by a multitude of factors. Supply chain disruptions due to adverse weather conditions, including heavy rains and volcanic eruptions, significantly impacted the production and distribution of Natural Rubber (TSR), leading to a tightening of supply. These disruptions were further exacerbated by reduced harvesting enthusiasm among rubber farmers, adverse climate conditions, and increased freight charges, collectively contributing to the supply crunch. Additionally, fluctuating demand from downstream sectors such as the automotive and tire industries played a role in shaping market dynamics. Singapore witnessed the most significant price changes in the region, reflecting overall trends in price movements. The 3% increase from the previous quarter and a substantial 16% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter highlighted the volatility and upward trajectory of Natural Rubber prices. Despite challenges, disruptions, and plant shutdowns, the pricing landscape for Natural Rubber in the APAC Region during Q3 2024 displayed a robust and upward trend.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in Europe experienced a notable uptrend in prices, characterized by a 7% increase from the previous quarter. This surge was predominantly influenced by a combination of factors that propelled market sentiment towards a bullish trajectory. Adverse weather conditions in major rubber-producing regions, such as heavy rains and floods, significantly disrupted supply chains, leading to supply shortages and import cost escalations. Plant shutdowns in key exporting nations further exacerbated the supply constraints, intensifying the upward pressure on prices. Additionally, rising production costs and heightened competition from alternative synthetic rubber sources contributed to the price escalation. These factors, coupled with the seasonal nature of rubber tapping and the correlation with global economic indicators, underscored the positive pricing environment witnessed throughout the quarter. Germany, being a significant player in the natural rubber market, experienced the most substantial price changes within the region. The overall trend in Germany mirrored the broader European market, with prices reflecting a 19% increase between the first and second half of the quarter. The pricing dynamics in Germany underscored a prevailing positive sentiment, driven by supply chain disruptions, production challenges, and heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly the Automotive and Tire industries.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for Natural Rubber (TSR) in North America has exhibited an upward trajectory. The quarter was marked by a series of significant factors that elevated market prices. Supply chain disruptions, primarily driven by adverse weather conditions, severely impacted latex availability, thereby increasing raw material costs. Abnormal weather patterns hindered the rubber-tapping process, resulting in reduced yields from Hevea trees and subsequent latex shortages. Concurrently, shipping delays and port congestion exacerbated supply constraints, further driving prices upward.
Focusing specifically on the USA, the country experienced the most pronounced price changes in the region. The bullish trend was fueled by robust demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors, which continued to outstrip supply despite increased procurement activities. Noteworthy is the correlation between heightened vehicle sales and the limited rubber supply, pushing prices to new highs. Seasonal weather disruptions played a pivotal role, with the rainy season compounding the already strained supply chain. Furthermore, the fungal leaf-spot disease in rubber plantations added to yield performance woes, contributing to the rising costs. A significant price comparison reveals a 9% increase between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a sharp escalation in market sentiment. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 4%, reflecting a consistent increase throughout the quarter. The overall trend suggests a bullish market environment driven by supply challenges and strong demand. Plant shutdowns due to environmental disruptions further strained supply chains, contributing to the overall price surge.
Concluding Q2 2024, Natural Rubber TSR 10 CFR Texas in the USA reached a quarter-ending price of USD 1900/MT, underscoring a positive pricing environment characterized by robust demand and persistent supply constraints. The quarter has thus been decidedly favorable for market prices, anchored by a complex interplay of demand-supply dynamics and environmental factors.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC region experienced a significant uptrend, driven primarily by a confluence of adverse weather conditions, supply chain disruptions, and heightened demand from the automotive and tire sectors. Factors such as fluctuating weather patterns, fungal leaf-spot diseases, and constrained latex availability have severely impacted rubber yield, escalating production costs. Additionally, the market has witnessed a large-scale crop shift towards more lucrative alternatives like palm oil and durian, further suppressing rubber plantation activities post-2016. These supply constraints have intensified bullish market sentiments, pushing prices upward consistently throughout the quarter. In Thailand, which saw the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend has been a marked increase. The second quarter's pricing environment has been predominantly positive, influenced by robust demand from downstream sectors and inadequate existing inventories. The correlation between supply disruptions and market demand has been evident, leading to an 8% price increase from the previous quarter. Consequently, the quarter ended with Natural Rubber (TSR) STR-20 priced at USD 1790/MT FOB Laem Chabang in Thailand, reflecting a steadfastly bullish market sentiment.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in Europe exhibited a distinct upward pricing trajectory. This quarter has seen a significant escalation in prices due to multifaceted disruptions in the supply chain, primarily originating from adverse climatic conditions, which hindered the availability of raw materials. Additionally, logistical bottlenecks, including container shortages and volcanic activity in key export regions, severely impeded the flow of natural rubber to Europe, further exacerbating supply constraints. The burgeoning effect of the new European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), set to be implemented at year-end, created preemptive procurement caution among major market players, thereby elevating prices as suppliers sought to secure compliant sources. Focusing specifically on Germany, which recorded the highest price volatility, the market experienced profound shifts driven by both exogenous and endogenous factors. The German manufacturing sector's slow recovery, despite a rising PMI, coupled with reduced automotive and tire industry demand, contrasted sharply with the acute supply shortages. Disruptions from the nationwide rail strike and ongoing farmer protests further strained the supply chain, leading to significant plant shutdowns and inventory deficits. The overall trend showcased a robust 14% price increase between the quarter’s first and second halves, reflecting pronounced price inflation due to tightening supply. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices surged by 8%, underscoring the exacerbated supply-demand imbalance. The quarter concluded on a bullish note with prices reaching USD 1900/MT for Natural Rubber TSR 10 (CFR Hamburg), signaling a persistently positive pricing environment despite the overarching challenges. This consistent uptrend highlights the severe impact of supply disruptions, regulatory pressures, and market hesitancy on the European natural rubber market, particularly in Germany.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American Natural Rubber (TSR) market experienced upward price trajectory influenced by various factors. Several factors contributed to the price changes in the market. High crude oil prices and limited raw material output in key producing countries, coupled with production shutdowns or lower efficiency in exporting countries, tightened supply conditions and drove prices upwards. Additionally, the strong demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors further fueled the price increase.
In the USA, the market saw the maximum price changes. The prices of Natural Rubber (TSR) witnessed an incline of 1.73% in February 2024. This increase was driven by the high demand from the Automotive and Tire sectors, coupled with limited inventory levels. Furthermore, in March 2024, the prices increased by 0.57% due to the surge in demand and insufficient inventory levels. Overall, the pricing trend in Q1 2024 exhibited seasonality, with fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics. The market sentiment was predominantly bullish, with high demand and limited supply driving prices upwards.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC region experienced volatility in the price trend. Overall, the pricing environment was positive, with prices showing an upward trend in most countries. Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. Limited supply due to adverse weather conditions, floods due to heavy rainfall, and disruptions in production led to higher production costs, resulting in increased prices. Additionally, strong demand from the downstream automotive and tire sectors further contributed to the price surge. Indonesia, in particular, witnessed significant price changes during this period. Prices of Natural Rubber (TSR) in Indonesia increased as compared to the same quarter last year. This upward price trend was driven by the combination of high demand and limited supply of the commodity. Seasonality also played a role, with the first half of the quarter showing slightly lower prices compared to the second half. Overall, the pricing environment for Natural Rubber (TSR) in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was positive, with prices showcased an upward trend. Limited supply and strong demand from the downstream sectors were the key drivers of this price surge.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the Europe was influenced by various factors, including elevated crude oil prices, restricted raw material output in major producing countries, and disruptions in shipping routes. These factors led to a bullish market sentiment, with prices showing an overall upward trend. The market in Germany, in particular, saw the maximum price changes. The prices of Natural Rubber TSR 20 in Germany increased by 1.22% in February 2024 compared to the previous month. This increase was driven by robust demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors, as well as reduced supply due to production slowdowns and the spring festival holidays in exporting nations. Compared to the same quarter last year, the prices of Natural Rubber TSR 20 in Germany showed a significant increase. Overall, the pricing environment for Natural Rubber TSR in Q1 2024 can be considered positive, with prices generally on an upward trend. Towards the end of the quarter, the price of Natural Rubber (TSR) in Germany inclined to USD 1710/ton CFR Hamburg.
