For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Natural Rubber (TSR) market experienced a sharp upward trend, with the USA seeing the most pronounced price fluctuations. Several factors contributed to this surge in prices. Supply chain disruptions, particularly caused by adverse weather conditions in key producing regions, played a significant role in limiting the availability of Natural Rubber. This was compounded by increased production costs due to rising labor and raw material expenses. The automotive sector, a major consumer of Natural Rubber, also witnessed a rise in demand, further straining the already tight supply.
Additionally, plant shutdowns in major producing areas exacerbated the supply crunch, forcing suppliers to increase prices. The competition between Natural Rubber and synthetic alternatives intensified, further driving up demand and contributing to the price rise. The USA experienced a 19% price disparity between the first and second half of the quarter, underscoring the volatile nature of the market during this period.
By the end of Q3, Natural Rubber TSR 10 was priced at USD 2140/MT CFR Texas. The overall pricing environment was characterized by a bullish sentiment, as market players responded to supply constraints, higher production costs, and strong demand from key sectors. This highlighted the market's resilience amid challenging conditions and price pressures.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC Region experienced a notable uptrend in prices, driven by a multitude of factors. Supply chain disruptions due to adverse weather conditions, including heavy rains and volcanic eruptions, significantly impacted the production and distribution of Natural Rubber (TSR), leading to a tightening of supply. These disruptions were further exacerbated by reduced harvesting enthusiasm among rubber farmers, adverse climate conditions, and increased freight charges, collectively contributing to the supply crunch. Additionally, fluctuating demand from downstream sectors such as the automotive and tire industries played a role in shaping market dynamics. Singapore witnessed the most significant price changes in the region, reflecting overall trends in price movements. The 3% increase from the previous quarter and a substantial 16% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter highlighted the volatility and upward trajectory of Natural Rubber prices. Despite challenges, disruptions, and plant shutdowns, the pricing landscape for Natural Rubber in the APAC Region during Q3 2024 displayed a robust and upward trend.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in Europe experienced a notable uptrend in prices, characterized by a 7% increase from the previous quarter. This surge was predominantly influenced by a combination of factors that propelled market sentiment towards a bullish trajectory. Adverse weather conditions in major rubber-producing regions, such as heavy rains and floods, significantly disrupted supply chains, leading to supply shortages and import cost escalations. Plant shutdowns in key exporting nations further exacerbated the supply constraints, intensifying the upward pressure on prices. Additionally, rising production costs and heightened competition from alternative synthetic rubber sources contributed to the price escalation. These factors, coupled with the seasonal nature of rubber tapping and the correlation with global economic indicators, underscored the positive pricing environment witnessed throughout the quarter. Germany, being a significant player in the natural rubber market, experienced the most substantial price changes within the region. The overall trend in Germany mirrored the broader European market, with prices reflecting a 19% increase between the first and second half of the quarter. The pricing dynamics in Germany underscored a prevailing positive sentiment, driven by supply chain disruptions, production challenges, and heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly the Automotive and Tire industries.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for Natural Rubber (TSR) in North America has exhibited an upward trajectory. The quarter was marked by a series of significant factors that elevated market prices. Supply chain disruptions, primarily driven by adverse weather conditions, severely impacted latex availability, thereby increasing raw material costs. Abnormal weather patterns hindered the rubber-tapping process, resulting in reduced yields from Hevea trees and subsequent latex shortages. Concurrently, shipping delays and port congestion exacerbated supply constraints, further driving prices upward.
Focusing specifically on the USA, the country experienced the most pronounced price changes in the region. The bullish trend was fueled by robust demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors, which continued to outstrip supply despite increased procurement activities. Noteworthy is the correlation between heightened vehicle sales and the limited rubber supply, pushing prices to new highs. Seasonal weather disruptions played a pivotal role, with the rainy season compounding the already strained supply chain. Furthermore, the fungal leaf-spot disease in rubber plantations added to yield performance woes, contributing to the rising costs. A significant price comparison reveals a 9% increase between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a sharp escalation in market sentiment. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 4%, reflecting a consistent increase throughout the quarter. The overall trend suggests a bullish market environment driven by supply challenges and strong demand. Plant shutdowns due to environmental disruptions further strained supply chains, contributing to the overall price surge.
Concluding Q2 2024, Natural Rubber TSR 10 CFR Texas in the USA reached a quarter-ending price of USD 1900/MT, underscoring a positive pricing environment characterized by robust demand and persistent supply constraints. The quarter has thus been decidedly favorable for market prices, anchored by a complex interplay of demand-supply dynamics and environmental factors.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC region experienced a significant uptrend, driven primarily by a confluence of adverse weather conditions, supply chain disruptions, and heightened demand from the automotive and tire sectors. Factors such as fluctuating weather patterns, fungal leaf-spot diseases, and constrained latex availability have severely impacted rubber yield, escalating production costs. Additionally, the market has witnessed a large-scale crop shift towards more lucrative alternatives like palm oil and durian, further suppressing rubber plantation activities post-2016. These supply constraints have intensified bullish market sentiments, pushing prices upward consistently throughout the quarter. In Thailand, which saw the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend has been a marked increase. The second quarter's pricing environment has been predominantly positive, influenced by robust demand from downstream sectors and inadequate existing inventories. The correlation between supply disruptions and market demand has been evident, leading to an 8% price increase from the previous quarter. Consequently, the quarter ended with Natural Rubber (TSR) STR-20 priced at USD 1790/MT FOB Laem Chabang in Thailand, reflecting a steadfastly bullish market sentiment.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in Europe exhibited a distinct upward pricing trajectory. This quarter has seen a significant escalation in prices due to multifaceted disruptions in the supply chain, primarily originating from adverse climatic conditions, which hindered the availability of raw materials. Additionally, logistical bottlenecks, including container shortages and volcanic activity in key export regions, severely impeded the flow of natural rubber to Europe, further exacerbating supply constraints. The burgeoning effect of the new European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), set to be implemented at year-end, created preemptive procurement caution among major market players, thereby elevating prices as suppliers sought to secure compliant sources. Focusing specifically on Germany, which recorded the highest price volatility, the market experienced profound shifts driven by both exogenous and endogenous factors. The German manufacturing sector's slow recovery, despite a rising PMI, coupled with reduced automotive and tire industry demand, contrasted sharply with the acute supply shortages. Disruptions from the nationwide rail strike and ongoing farmer protests further strained the supply chain, leading to significant plant shutdowns and inventory deficits. The overall trend showcased a robust 14% price increase between the quarter’s first and second halves, reflecting pronounced price inflation due to tightening supply. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices surged by 8%, underscoring the exacerbated supply-demand imbalance. The quarter concluded on a bullish note with prices reaching USD 1900/MT for Natural Rubber TSR 10 (CFR Hamburg), signaling a persistently positive pricing environment despite the overarching challenges. This consistent uptrend highlights the severe impact of supply disruptions, regulatory pressures, and market hesitancy on the European natural rubber market, particularly in Germany.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American Natural Rubber (TSR) market experienced upward price trajectory influenced by various factors. Several factors contributed to the price changes in the market. High crude oil prices and limited raw material output in key producing countries, coupled with production shutdowns or lower efficiency in exporting countries, tightened supply conditions and drove prices upwards. Additionally, the strong demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors further fueled the price increase.
In the USA, the market saw the maximum price changes. The prices of Natural Rubber (TSR) witnessed an incline of 1.73% in February 2024. This increase was driven by the high demand from the Automotive and Tire sectors, coupled with limited inventory levels. Furthermore, in March 2024, the prices increased by 0.57% due to the surge in demand and insufficient inventory levels. Overall, the pricing trend in Q1 2024 exhibited seasonality, with fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics. The market sentiment was predominantly bullish, with high demand and limited supply driving prices upwards.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the APAC region experienced volatility in the price trend. Overall, the pricing environment was positive, with prices showing an upward trend in most countries. Several factors influenced market prices during this quarter. Limited supply due to adverse weather conditions, floods due to heavy rainfall, and disruptions in production led to higher production costs, resulting in increased prices. Additionally, strong demand from the downstream automotive and tire sectors further contributed to the price surge. Indonesia, in particular, witnessed significant price changes during this period. Prices of Natural Rubber (TSR) in Indonesia increased as compared to the same quarter last year. This upward price trend was driven by the combination of high demand and limited supply of the commodity. Seasonality also played a role, with the first half of the quarter showing slightly lower prices compared to the second half. Overall, the pricing environment for Natural Rubber (TSR) in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was positive, with prices showcased an upward trend. Limited supply and strong demand from the downstream sectors were the key drivers of this price surge.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the Europe was influenced by various factors, including elevated crude oil prices, restricted raw material output in major producing countries, and disruptions in shipping routes. These factors led to a bullish market sentiment, with prices showing an overall upward trend. The market in Germany, in particular, saw the maximum price changes. The prices of Natural Rubber TSR 20 in Germany increased by 1.22% in February 2024 compared to the previous month. This increase was driven by robust demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors, as well as reduced supply due to production slowdowns and the spring festival holidays in exporting nations. Compared to the same quarter last year, the prices of Natural Rubber TSR 20 in Germany showed a significant increase. Overall, the pricing environment for Natural Rubber TSR in Q1 2024 can be considered positive, with prices generally on an upward trend. Towards the end of the quarter, the price of Natural Rubber (TSR) in Germany inclined to USD 1710/ton CFR Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Natural Rubber (TSR) market experienced notable volatility and price surges during the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily driven by several factors. Firstly, the introduction of the new EU Deforestation Regulations (EUDR) introduced uncertainty in the Southeast Asian rubber sector, resulting in a reduced supply of Natural Rubber in the global market. This constrained supply had a significant impact on market sentiments, leading to a bullish market scenario.
Secondly, the US automotive sector experienced strong demand for Natural Rubber, driven by robust vehicle sales and steady production, despite challenges such as strikes by union auto workers. Additionally, the increased cost of importing Natural Rubber from South-Asian countries further supported the price incline in the USA market.
Throughout the quarter, the supply of Natural Rubber decreased, with low inventories to meet demand. The demand for Natural Rubber in the US market was moderate to high, driven by the automotive and construction industries. The quarter ended with the price of Natural Rubber TSR 10 CFR Texas in the USA at USD 1760/MT.
APAC
In the APAC region, the market for Natural Rubber (TSR) in the fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed several significant factors that influenced prices. Firstly, the implementation of new regulations by the European Union (EU) aimed at stopping deforestation caused disruptions in the Southeast Asian rubber sector. This led to an influx of material availability in the international market, resulting in a drop in prices.
Additionally, the demand for Natural Rubber in the Indian market remained moderate to high, driven by a strong performance in the domestic automotive industry. The increase in demand coupled with expensive imports from South-Asian countries further supported the price incline in India. Furthermore, the supply chain demonstrated signals of expansion as industrial output rose, but inventories remained low to moderate.
It is important to note that no plant shutdowns were reported during this quarter. The price of Natural Rubber TSR 10 CFR JNPT in India at the end of the quarter was USD 1675/MT. Overall, the market for Natural Rubber in the APAC region during the fourth quarter of 2023 was influenced by the EU regulations, demand from the Indian market, and supply chain dynamics.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2023 proved to be a challenging period for the Natural Rubber (TSR) market in the Europe region. One of the primary factors impacting the market was the new regulation policies implemented by the European Union to stop deforestation, which threatened widespread disruption for Southeast Asia's rubber sector. This led to uncertainties and concerns among suppliers and exporters in the Southeast Asian markets. Furthermore, the German domestic market saw a temporary easing of discussions for Natural Rubber due to the destocking efforts by Southeast Asian suppliers. This provided leverage to market participants across Europe and resulted in less resilience from Southeast Asian suppliers during price negotiations.
Germany, being a major player in the European market, experienced a bullish outlook for Natural Rubber prices. The demand for Natural Rubber in Germany was influenced by factors such as the growth in the automotive and tire industry and improved consumer buying interest during the holiday season. However, the growth in downstream industries, including automotive and construction, remained flat, which led to a moderate to high demand for Natural Rubber in the market.
In terms of pricing trends, Natural Rubber TSR 10 CFR Hamburg in Germany saw a 4% increase in prices during the quarter, with the quarter-ending price standing at USD 1660/MT. The price change percentage from the previous quarter was 10%, indicating a significant increase in prices. Additionally, there was a 7% price percentage comparison between the first and second half of the quarter in Germany. Overall, the Natural Rubber market in the Europe region faced challenges and uncertainties during the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily driven by the new EU regulations and destocking efforts by Southeast Asian suppliers. Despite these challenges, Germany experienced a bullish market with increased demand and higher prices for Natural Rubber.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the third quarter of 2023, the North American Natural Rubber market witnessed a consistent surge in pricing, primarily driven by robust demand from various industries in the USA. This demand surge was particularly pronounced in the automotive sector, backed by a 15.4% growth in domestic car sales in July, indicating a strong expansion in the automotive industry. Furthermore, August saw a notable increase in natural rubber prices in the US market, which can be attributed to a 2% growth in US vehicle sales compared to July, and an impressive 16.2% year-over-year increase. Additionally, in September, despite a strike initiated by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union against major Detroit Three automakers, the US automotive sector managed to achieve a total of 1.33 million units in new vehicle sales. This achievement was remarkable, considering the potential supply chain disruptions due to the strike. The consistent growth in the US automotive industry was due to factors like improved availability, fleet shipments, and customer incentives. This, in turn, led to higher consumption of natural rubber. The price increase was also influenced by the relatively expensive imports of natural rubber from South Asian countries.
APAC
During the third quarter of 2023, the Asia-Pacific region experienced fluctuations in Natural Rubber prices, with Malaysia being a focal point of activity. In July, the surge in Natural Rubber prices was driven by increased orders from global markets, such as the USA, Europe, and various Asian countries. The demand for Natural Rubber outpaced its production, creating a supply-demand imbalance and boosting prices. August saw a 13% increase in vehicle sales in Malaysia, attributed to improved industry performance, supply chain conditions, and promotional campaigns. Several Asian countries relying on Malaysia for Natural Rubber imports also experienced growth in automobile sales. However, Natural Rubber prices remained stable in August due to production and consumption reaching a balance in July. Prices rose in September due to escalating crude oil prices, which increased production costs and the market price of synthetic rubber. This prompted businesses to opt for Natural Rubber in their manufacturing processes, increasing demand. In August, the Natural Rubber market faced uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, leading to market challenges. However, the market showed resilience in the latter half of August as optimism regarding the economic outlook and market sentiment improved and caused a surge in Natural Rubber prices in September.
Europe
During the third quarter of 2023, the European Natural Rubber market experienced consistent price increases, notably in the German market. In July, Natural Rubber prices surged in Germany due to heightened demand from the automotive sector. The trend continued itself in August and the demand was driven by a significant 37.3% growth in new passenger vehicle sales, largely attributed to a remarkable 171% year-on-year rise in electric vehicle (EV) sales. This EV surge was prompted by impending business buyer incentives that were set to expire on September 1st. Furthermore, in September, German consumer prices saw a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. Inflation had decreased to its lowest level since the Russia-Ukraine conflict's onset, suggesting potential relief from high inflation in Europe's largest economy. On the other hand, passenger car sales in Germany experienced a 0.1% decline in September, marking the first decrease since January. This downturn was primarily driven by a significant 28.6% drop in battery-powered electric vehicle sales, following the discontinuation of an environmental subsidy for commercial buyers. Despite the decline in automotive sales, natural rubber prices continued to rise in the German market in September, driven by expensive imports from South-Asian countries. The overall trend in the third quarter was characterized by strong automotive demand and fluctuating inflation, impacting the natural rubber market in Germany.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During the second quarter of 2023, the North American market saw a steady decrease in the prices of Natural Rubber. The downstream automotive and tire industry performed exceptionally well during the quarter, with a 20% increase in vehicle sales in the month of June. However, Natural Rubber prices continued to decline. The North American market is mainly import-driven, with Malaysia and Thailand being the major exporters of Natural Rubber. In the first four months of 2023, Thailand exported approximately 1.6 million tons of Natural Rubber, which is an increase of 3.7% compared to the same period last year. According to the DoSM, Malaysian Natural Rubber production in May 2023 grew by 6.8%, reaching 25 kilotons. According to the ANRPC (Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries), the monthly output of exporting countries such as Malaysia and Thailand remained above their monthly consumption, decreasing the price of imported material to the USA. As a result, Natural Rubber prices in North America continued to decline amid increased supply of Natural Rubber and overflowing inventories.
APAC
Unlike North America's market trend, Natural Rubber's prices showcased a mixed trend in the Asia-Pacific region during the 2nd quarter of the year as the Natural rubber price showcased an upsurge in April followed by a consistent decline. The downstream auto and tire industries performed very well in the quarter, with increased sales and industrial output. However, the price of Natural Rubber continued to fall in the second half of the quarter. Asian countries such as Thailand and Malaysia are the world's largest Natural Rubber producers and exporters. In the first four months of 2023, Thailand exported about 1.6 million tons of Natural Rubber, up 3.7% year-on-year. According to DoSM, Malaysia's natural rubber production increased by 6.8% in May 2023 to reach 25 thousand tons. According to ANRPC (Association of Natural Rubber Producers), monthly production in exporting countries such as Malaysia and Thailand exceeded the monthly consumption in June. As a result, Natural Rubber prices in the APAC region continued to fall due to increased Natural Rubber supplies and excess inventories. Furthermore, the import orders from North American and European regions have fallen due to the abundant availability of Natural Rubber in the country compared to its offtake.
Europe
The market trend of Natural Rubber in Europe showcased stability in the first month of Q2 2023, followed by a consistent plunge in prices. The downstream automotive & tire industry did exceptionally well during the 2nd quarter, with 20% growth in vehicle sales in June. However, prices of Natural Rubber continued to decrease. Imports mainly drive the Natural Rubber market in European countries. Malaysia and Thailand are the main exporters of natural rubber. Thailand exported approximately 1.6 MT of Natural Rubber in the first four months of 2023, which is 3.7% higher than the same period of last year. In May 2023, the DoSM reported that Malaysian Natural Rubber production increased by 6.8% to 25 Kilo tons. The monthly output of exporting countries like Malaysia and Thailand remained higher than their monthly consumption, which decreased the cost of imported materials to Europe. Natural Rubber prices continued to decrease in Europe due to an increase in natural rubber supply and overflowing inventories.
