For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, Mustard Oil prices exhibited a consistent upward trajectory, reflecting broader market trends within the APAC region. This price increase was primarily driven by a combination of factors influencing both supply and demand dynamics. Notably, regional demand from end-user sectors saw a steady rise, prompting importers to focus on maximizing inventory procurement.
In response to favorable market conditions and the potential for enhanced profitability, market participants strategically refined their pricing models to optimize profit margins and maintain competitiveness. This proactive stance was further bolstered by concurrent price increases in other edible oils, particularly palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, which helped sustain an optimistic outlook for Mustard Oil.
Additionally, with persistent rise in the freight cost provided a conducive environment for this price elevation for the entire quarter. Overall, the market sentiments throughout the quarter remained predominantly positive, with trading dynamics reflecting a robust upward trend. The interplay of rising demand, strategic inventory management, and favorable pricing developments across the edible oil sector illustrated the market’s adaptability to changing conditions.
Asia Pacific
Moving forward towards the Q3 2024, the Mustard Oil pricing in the APAC region remained stable, reflecting a consistent market sentiment. Various factors influence market prices, including stable demand, sufficient supply levels, and moderate input costs. In India, where the most substantial price changes were observed, the market experienced moderate fluctuations driven by seasonal trends and demand dynamics. The quarter saw a nearly around of 2% increase from the previous quarter, with prices remaining relatively unchanged between the first and second half of the quarter. This stability in pricing can be attributed to balanced market conditions and steady consumer demand. The steady surge in mandi prices incentivized farmers to boost their mustard production. Manufacturers, faced with higher procurement costs and limited import options, were forced to pass on these expenses to end-users. Overall, the pricing environment in India exhibited a positive trend, with prices settling at USD 1498.67/MT for Mustard Oil Ex-Agra at the end of the quarter. The correlation in price changes within the region highlighted a harmonious pricing landscape, emphasizing the resilience and equilibrium in the Mustard Oil market during Q3 2024.
Europe
Throughout the third quarter of 2024, the pricing dynamics of mustard oil exhibited trends consistent with those in other global markets, notably North America, while the European market showcased notably optimistic developments. The initial uptick in purchasing activity, bolstered by a persistent rise in consumer confidence, ultimately led to a market correction that resulted in more sustainable pricing levels. This recalibration attracted new buyers, reinvigorating the overall demand for mustard oil. Moreover, currency fluctuations, though initially perceived as obstacles, presented opportunities for international traders to leverage favorable exchange rates, thereby stimulating cross-border trade. A concerted focus on destocking inventories contributed to a streamlined and more efficient supply chain, positioning the industry for future growth as the quarter progressed. Additionally, an increase in freight costs further fueled the upward trend in mustard oil exports and pricing across India, maintaining positive trading sentiments in the overall market. This convergence of demand reinvigoration, supply chain optimization, and logistical cost considerations effectively set the stage for a more competitive landscape for mustard oil on the international stage supporting an overall optimistic trajectory for the entire quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Throughout the entirety of the second quarter of 2024, the prices of Mustard Oil mirrored market trends in the APAC region. The overall trend in the market was characterized by a steady price rise, driven by several key factors.
With a steady rise in regional demand from the end-user’s sector, the importers were focused on procuring the maximum inventories during the month which supported the overall price sure for Mustard oil as of April. However, as may commenced, the market witnessed an upside-down trajectory with prices dropped considerably. From a Supply-side perspective, the Mustard oil market has witnessed an adequate supply to cater to the demands of end-user industries such as pharmaceuticals, food, and preservatives. With low to moderate downstream purchasing sentiments dynamics have led suppliers and manufacturers to prioritize clearing existing inventories over further processing, influenced by high storage costs and declining market inquiries. As a result, the overall vegetable oil market remains sluggish, with falling prices impacting the supply-demand dynamics.
Moreover, moving forward towards the end of quarter, i.e., in June, the overall prices rebound yet steadily balancing the overall supply-demand side. In light of the favourable market conditions and the opportunity for improved profitability highlighted by a surge in new orders from end-user sectors, market participants have persistently refined their pricing strategies to maximize profit margins and uphold their competitiveness. Moreover, this rise was also supported by a price rise in other edible oils particularly, the palm oil, soybean and sunflower oils which further supported this optimistic trajectory during the month. This reflects a proactive response to prevailing market dynamics, aimed at maximizing returns amidst evolving demand patterns and eased supply pressures from the past month. Overall, the market sentiments throughout the quarter remained on the positive side with market trading sentiments being on the northerly side.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for Mustard Oil in the APAC region exhibited a notable upward trajectory. Several critical factors influenced this surge, including heightened demand from end-users, currency fluctuations, and the bolstered costs of alternative edible oils. Additionally, geopolitical instabilities disrupted supply chains, further elevating prices. The quarter was characterized by robust economic activity across the region, with manufacturers passing on increased operational costs to consumers. Despite the planting season easing some pressure, the overall sentiment remained positive, with consistent price elevation throughout the quarter. Focusing specifically on India, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, Mustard Oil prices demonstrated a clear increasing trend. Seasonal factors played a pivotal role, as the harvesting period augmented supply but was met with robust demand, resulting in a constrained market. The price changes were also influenced by the depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the US dollar, leading to higher import costs and, consequently, increased local prices for the downstream buyers. Additionally, the pricing dynamics were also affected by labor shortages and processing delays, further exacerbated by regional heatwaves impacting production efficiency. Overall, the percentage change from the previous quarter was recorded at -1%, indicating a decrease from Q1 to Q2 2024. However, a 1% increase was observed when comparing the first and second halves of Q2, reflecting a mid-quarter rebound. The latest quarter-ending price for Mustard Oil in India was USD 123000/MT. This quarter underscored a stable, yet upward pricing environment driven by multifaceted supply and demand dynamics, establishing an overall positive sentiment in the Mustard Oil market.
Europe
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, Mustard Oil pricing mirrored trends observed in other regions, particularly North America, with the European market displaying pronounced optimisitc tendencies. The improved purchasing activities and rising consumer confidence initially observed actually paved the way for a market correction, leading to more sustainable pricing levels. This adjustment attracted new buyers, reinvigorating demand. Additionally, the currency fluctuations, while initially challenging, created opportunities for savvy international traders to capitalize on favourable exchange rates, stimulating cross-border trade. The focus on destocking inventories led to a leaner, more efficient supply chain, positioning the industry for future growth in the middle of the quarter where the prices dropped steadily marking the weaken purchasing sentiments. However, by the end of the period, these factors converged to create a revitalized market with strengthened fundamentals, setting the stage for robust growth and increased market share for Mustard oil in the global edible oils sector. Sportingly, A rise in freight cost additionally had further fuel the overall upward trend in exports of mustard oil and its prices across the nation, keeping the overall market trading sentiments on the northerly side.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America:
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the pricing chart for Mustard oil within the North American region continued to witness a pessimistic trajectory similar to that of the Apac region. The market faced challenges due to lower consumptions, limited import momentum ahead of increased freight charges, and sufficient inventories among suppliers and market players.
The USA's reliance on importing Mustard Oil from the Apac region, primarily India made it susceptible to fluctuations in Indian provinces, which had a profound impact on the domestic market. The major exporting regions experienced high production availability of mustard seed for the production of mustard oil while weaker inquiries arrived. This compelled market players to adjust their quotations to protect profit margins.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions added complexity to market sentiments. The escalated container freight rates contributed to the price surge; particularly impacting industries reliant on maritime transport, which further kept the merchants highly reluctant to place newer quotations ahead of persistent weak purchasing within the market. However, moving forward toward the end of the quarter, the resumption of trade activities and shipments played a pivotal role in enhancing the availability of commodities, including Mustard Oil. The increased accessibility of these goods helped to alleviate concerns over potential supply shortages, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices. However, despite these positive developments, the market faced challenges stemming from subdued demand, sluggish purchasing activities, and depressed consumer confidence, thereby sustaining an overall downward trend throughout the quarter with market players consdierably engaged in inventory management practices, seeking to destock existing inventories in preparation for replenishment with fresh supplies.
Asia Pacific:
During the first quarter of 2024, the Mustard oil market in the APAC region exhibited a pessimistic trajectory, particularly within India, where the demand-supply dynamics were notably weakened. Merchants primarily focused on evaluating overall inquiries and quotations to gauge market conditions. The market's journey in January 2024 was marked by dynamic fluctuations, with prices occasionally dipping below the government-set Minimum Support Price (MSP) in specific markets. Additionally, the significant upsurge in international palm oil prices prompted a reassessment of cooking oil imports in the country, subsequently leading to a reduction in imports and influencing domestic pricing dynamics. Further, anticipation of the imminent mustard crop harvest influenced market dynamics, with expectations of increased domestic supply leading to adjustments in pricing structures. While, on the demand side, consistent patterns of subdued demand were observed, with regional inquiries being satisfactorily met by domestic suppliers. The ongoing harvesting season contributed to increased availability from farmers, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices in February as well. Lastly, contributing to this, the devaluation of the Indian Rupee (INR) against the dollar persisted, further disincentivizing merchants from stocking up their inventories with mustard oil, which would incur relatively higher costs, thereby marking an overall pessimistic trajectory until the final weeks of March 2024.
Europe:
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the European market for Mustard oil has mirrored the downward trajectory observed in other regions such as North America and the Asia Pacific. Various factors have contributed to this persistent decline in prices. Chief among them is the weakened demand for Mustard oil, both domestically and internationally, which has exerted significant downward pressure on prices. In response, suppliers have actively adjusted their pricing strategies to align with the subdued demand, resulting in a proactive drop in prices across the market. Furthermore, the continuous decline in the export market, particularly within the APAC region, has amplified negative market sentiments in importing nations like Europe. This was supported by geopolitical tensions resulting in trade disruptions which have complicated market dynamics, exacerbating the prevailing pessimism. Container freight rates have emerged as a notable factor impacting industries reliant on maritime transport, thereby affecting import momentum. However, toward the end of the first quarter, trade activity was resurgent following the subsiding impact of the Red Sea shipping disruption and the presence of underutilized capacity among suppliers. This has bolstered commodity availability, including Mustard oil. Despite these improvements, downstream procurement of Mustard oil has continued to experience a consistent decline, culminating in a pessimistic end to the first quarter. Buyers have exhibited cautious behavior, adopting a "wait-and-see" approach before committing to additional orders, reflecting their subdued enthusiasm amidst prevailing market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Throughout the entire fourth quarter of 2023, Mustard oil prices in the North American region followed a nuanced market trajectory, leaning toward the optimistic side with a moderate decline in November 2023. The quarter commenced positively with heightened demand, supported by increased inquiries from the regional market and elevated shipping costs from exporting nations, maintaining an optimistic outlook for Mustard Oil prices throughout October 2023. Additionally, downstream businesses adjusted prices for customers, notably driven by the onset of the winter season, which spurred a surge in domestic inquiries.
The generally positive market sentiment was further reinforced by the rising costs of essential input materials, such as energy and raw materials in recent months. However, as the fourth quarter progressed, prices experienced a significant decline due to a moderate drop in downstream purchasing activity. This led to increased stockpiling of inventories among suppliers and retailers. The broader trend observed in major exporting countries, marked by a drop in Mustard oil prices in the APAC region, influenced the market trend in other countries as well. Market participants closely monitored these developments, with transactions generally favoring the downside throughout the month.
Entering December 2023, Mustard oil prices rebounded once again. The state of the US market reflected cautious optimism amid prevailing economic concerns. The increased adoption of on-demand procurement by downstream businesses resulted in a sustained demand-supply equilibrium in the domestic market, expediting delivery times. Ongoing geopolitical tensions impacting global trade routes led to increased freight charges, contributing to additional costs throughout the supply chain and supporting the current rise in overall Mustard oil prices.
Asia Pacific
In the APAC region during the fourth quarter of 2023, the pricing dynamics of Mustard Oil reflected a diverse market sentiment. The market maintained an upward trajectory throughout the quarter until the conclusion of December, with a slight dip in November 2023. Initially, in October 2023, Mustard oil prices witnessed an upward trend in the Indian market. This was fueled by consistent supply orders from retailers and suppliers to manufacturers, aligning with the festive season in the region. Additionally, the market was influenced by the rising prices of other edible oils like soybean and palm oil, positioning Mustard Oil as a more cost-effective alternative. The shift in consumer preference towards Mustard Oil further contributed to the upward price trend. As November 2023 unfolded, the prices of Mustard Oil stabilized, balancing the overall supply-demand dynamics across the region. Moving into December 2023, the Ex-location price of Mustard oil in India experienced a slight increase compared to November. Although the price difference in this month was not as significant as the previous one, there was a modest rise in downstream consumption. Apart from existing stocks, Indian traders also imported a considerable quantity of Mustard oil from UAE and Ukraine. However, disruptions in trade routes within the Red Sea raised concerns over agricultural commodities, particularly affecting Indian trade exports due to the rerouting of shipments and resulting in extended delivery times. This was supported by increased fuel and freight charges, contributing to the overall price surge. Furthermore, trade activity during this month was predominantly driven by regional inquiries, with merchants expected to focus on bolstering their stock levels to meet the continuous rise in downstream consumption in the forthcoming period.
Europe
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2023, Mustard oil prices mirrored the market trends observed in other nations, primarily North America and the Asia Pacific region. Initially, the German market saw an increase in downstream consumption of Mustard Oil. This heightened demand was driven by factors such as rising production expenses and soaring energy costs in exporting nations, consistently pushing overall market prices upward. Businesses actively replenished their inventories through substantial orders, contributing to the market's strength. Downstream panel factories adjusted their procurement based on demand, leading to increased bidding and offers among enterprises, influencing market dynamics. However, in November, the market weakened, sustained by a decline in downstream consumption, which was balanced by sufficient availability of inventories meeting the arrived demand. Domestic acquisitions mainly occurred on an as-needed basis, maintaining a sustained, albeit subdued, trade momentum in the short term. As the quarter approached its conclusion, the notable decrease in Mustard Oil prices in the German market during December 2023 attracted attention from industry players and analysts. This shift in pricing dynamics deviated from earlier projections, impacting both market experts and traders who strategically built up stocks in anticipation of an expected surge in demand from their respective end-user sectors. The unexpected turn in the market as December approached prompted merchants to recalibrate their inventory levels in response to the evolving landscape.
