For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American ferromolybdenum market faced a challenging environment characterized by shifting pricing trends and fluctuating demand. Prices decreased by 7% in November, followed by a marginal decline of 1.5% in December, reflecting broader market sentiments and oversupply conditions. Despite stable production levels earlier in the quarter, the manufacturing sector exhibited signs of contraction, with new export orders slowing significantly toward year-end.
Manufacturing dynamics revealed that while U.S. molybdenum production-maintained par with previous year levels, production constraints in China introduced volatility in the global supply chain. The automotive sector experienced a resurgence, with vehicle sales showing a 2.8% monthly rise; however, the construction industry remained subdued due to high borrowing costs and sluggish residential real estate activity, impacting demand for molybdenum products.
The quarter-ending price for Ferromolybdenum 65% min CFR San Diego stood at USD 51,171/MT. Throughout Q4, prices reflected an overall downward trajectory as participants navigated oversupply challenges, rising input costs, and mixed economic signals, resulting in a cautious outlook for the ferromolybdenum market as it prepares for potential policy changes and evolving demand conditions in 2025.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the European ferromolybdenum market experienced notable fluctuations, characterized by price instability amid evolving demand dynamics. Prices showed a downward trend, decreasing by 6% in November, followed by a marginal decline of 1.5% in December. The overall market sentiment has been cautiously optimistic as manufacturers sought to counteract elevated production costs by increasing selling prices in October, which had surged significantly above historical trends. Manufacturing conditions indicated a mixed landscape, with the Russian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index showing a gradual improvement, reflecting a shift from contraction to slight expansion. Despite this, challenges persisted due to weak demand in the stainless-steel and construction sectors, leading to significant price concessions. In November, new vehicle sales climbed by 16.7% year-over-year, highlighting some resilience in the automotive sector, yet the overall market grapples with a slowdown in building activities and material shortages. The quarter-ending price for Ferromolybdenum 60% min CFR Novorossiysk stood at USD 29,910/MT. Throughout Q4, prices reflected an overall decline, with market participants facing pressures from high input costs, exchange rate instability, and fluctuations in overseas supply. Looking forward, stakeholders will need to navigate these challenges while remaining responsive to changing demand conditions and global production factors.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the APAC Ferromolybdenum market experienced notable volatility, primarily influenced by fluctuating demand from the stainless-steel sector and shifting production dynamics amid changing economic conditions. Prices decreased by 7% in November, followed by a marginal decline of 1.5% in December, influenced by higher inventory levels and reduced purchasing activity from key steel mills due to declining steel prices. Despite these challenges, the market showed resilience due to supportive government policies aimed at boosting economic activities. In October, the Chinese Manufacturing Index rose, indicating slight expansion within the manufacturing sector. However, lingering supply chain disruptions and limited stockpiling efforts led to a cautious outlook across the market. The quarter-ending price for Ferromolybdenum 60% min FOB Shanghai stood at USD 30,621/MT. Throughout Q4, prices indicated an overall downward trend, revealing the market's sensitivity to demand shifts and production adjustments. As participants navigate ongoing economic uncertainty and seasonal factors, including anticipated fluctuations in demand related to the upcoming Chinese New Year, the ferromolybdenum market faces challenges in maintaining equilibrium while looking for signs of recovery in 2025.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the U.S. Molybdenum market showed varying trends. August began with a 1.3% price increase in the spot market, while September prices remained stable. Supply consistently met stainless steel demand, though manufacturing rates stayed below optimal levels. Port congestion and logistical challenges, including a coastwide longshoremen's strike, impacted supply chains.
Ocean freight rates showed mixed movements, with Asia-US West Coast prices increasing by 1% while East Coast rates declined by 4%. The automotive sector displayed significant volatility, with August recording a 6% increase in vehicle sales to 1,422,036 units, followed by a sharp 12.3% decline in September to 1,172,101 units. Construction sector indicators were mixed, with overall input prices rising marginally while steel prices decreased, including a 2.6% drop in steel mill product prices.
North American production declined by 2% to 27.6 million pounds, despite global production rising by 1% to 159.2 million pounds. The quarter recorded a notable increase of 8% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with Molybdenum prices at USD 55527/MT of Ferro-molybdenum 65%min CFR San Diego (USA), reflecting the overall upward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2024, the APAC Molybdenum market demonstrated varied dynamics across China, India, and Thailand, with each country facing unique market conditions and challenges. China maintained stable Ferromolybdenum prices in September, supported by consistent demand from stainless-steel mills, despite a Manufacturing PMI of 49.8% indicating sector contraction. The market was influenced by government stimuli in the construction sector, though real estate concerns persisted.
Thailand experienced a 1.2% price increase in August but faced pressure from regulatory changes and potential oversupply due to increased Chinese capacity from Yongjin Metal Technology Group. The country's manufacturing sector showed positive but slowing growth, with capacity utilization remaining below 30%. India also saw a 1.2% rise in Ferromolybdenum spot prices during August, driven by increased stainless-steel mill demand and a 26.5% surge in steel imports.
However, like Thailand, India struggled with low-capacity utilization and declining Manufacturing PMI of 49.8%. All three markets shared common challenges including high inventory levels, sluggish demand, and seasonal factors affecting steel prices. The automotive sector's performance, particularly in Thailand and India, indicated potential softening of steel component demand. While local traders in India anticipated improved demand during the festive season, the overall regional market maintained a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties and supply-demand imbalances. The quarter recorded a slight increase of 3% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with Ilmenite prices at USD 33228/MT of Ferro-molybdenum 60%min FOB Shanghai (China), reflecting the overall upward trajectory in pricing for the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European stainless-steel mills faced significant challenges, primarily due to high interest rates and elevated energy costs, which limited their participation in the molybdenum market. The sector's performance was notably impacted by broader economic pressures in the region. Logistical challenges persisted throughout the quarter, with increased congestion at major European ports including Barcelona, Valencia, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven. Hamburg particularly experienced longer delays compared to other North European hubs, exacerbated by Red Sea disruptions forcing alternative routing.
Ocean freight rates showed significant movements, with prices from Asia to Northern Europe decreasing by 17% per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean prices fell by 10%. These logistics trends influenced overall market dynamics and pricing structures. Global production context showed China leading with 74.9 million pounds, while European consumption remained constrained by market conditions. Despite these challenges, the molybdenum market-maintained stability, supported partially by Chinese demand despite their construction sector concerns. The quarter recorded a notable increase of 9% from the previous quarter. The quarter ended with prices at USD 32120/MT of Ferro-molybdenum 60%min CFR Novorossiysk (Russia), reflecting the overall upward trajectory in pricing for the region.
