For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Methanol market in North America witnessed a significant upward trajectory in prices, driven by a confluence of key factors. The region experienced a surge in Methanol prices due to tightening supply chains, heightened demand from downstream industries, and rising raw material costs.
Supply constraints stemming from plant shutdowns and disruptions in global supply chains contributed to the scarcity of Methanol, exerting upward pressure on prices. Moreover, robust demand from various sectors such as formaldehyde production and chemical manufacturing further fueled the price escalation.
Within the USA specifically, the market saw the most pronounced price changes, with a 38% increase from the same quarter last year. Notably, the quarter recorded an 8% price hike from the previous quarter in 2024, indicating a sustained upward trend. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a 4% price increase, highlighting consistent growth. The quarter culminated with Methanol Contract prices reaching USD 722/MT DEL Louisiana, underscoring the prevailing positive pricing environment in the USA market.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing Methanol prices across the APAC region, driven by a combination of factors influencing market dynamics. Demand remained steady from various downstream industries, such as formaldehyde and acetic acid production, while supply constraints and import volumes contributed to the price uptrend. Japan experienced the most significant price changes during this period, reflecting broader trends in the region. This positive outlook was further bolstered by a notable increase in demand from the formaldehyde and formalin sectors, which experienced significant growth due to the expansion of several production units. The quarter saw a notable 18% increase in Methanol prices compared to the same period last year, indicating a substantial shift in pricing dynamics. Additionally, there was a 7% price increase from the previous quarter in 2024, showcasing consistent upward momentum. The second half of the quarter recorded a 4% price increase compared to the first half, highlighting a sustained growth trajectory. Ultimately, the quarter-ending price of Methanol stood at USD 345/MT CFR Nagoya in Japan, reflecting the overall positive and increasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Methanol market in Europe experienced a notable uptick in prices, driven by various factors. Significant influences included a surge in demand from downstream industries, particularly in the formaldehyde and acetic acid sectors, leading to a tightening of supply levels. Additionally, rising energy costs and logistical challenges in shipping contributed to the overall bullish market sentiment. The Netherlands, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, reflecting the broader trends in the region. The feedstock natural gas prices have increased in August 2024 as surge was primarily due to geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict and potential supply disruptions at the Russian-Ukrainian border. The correlation between price changes and seasonality was evident, with the quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% and a substantial 50% increase from the same quarter last year highlighting the market's positive trajectory. The second half of the quarter saw a 5% price increase compared to the first half, indicating sustained growth. The quarter concluded with Methanol priced at USD 366/MT FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands, reflecting a consistently increasing pricing environment throughout Q3 2024.
MEA
The Methanol pricing landscape in the MEA region for Q3 2024 has been characterized by a notable uptrend, with several factors contributing to the price escalation. Various significant elements influenced market dynamics, including robust demand from key industries, supply chain disruptions, and elevated production costs. The quarter witnessed a 29% increase from the same period last year, indicating a substantial price surge driven by evolving market conditions. Notably, the previous quarter in 2024 saw a 6% price hike, reflecting a consistent upward trajectory. Within Saudi Arabia, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the Methanol market displayed a clear trend of increasing prices. Market trends were influenced by seasonal patterns and correlations in price changes, with a distinct 5% difference observed between the first and second half of the quarter. Despite fluctuating conditions, the quarter concluded with Methanol Contract prices reaching USD 305/MT FOB Al Jubail. This consistent price growth underscores a positive pricing environment, highlighting stability and optimism in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Methanol pricing in North America has experienced significant upward momentum, driven by a confluence of market factors. The quarter was marked by heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly Formaldehyde and adhesives, coupled with restrained global supply due to production halts and logistical challenges during June 2024.
A pivotal factor was Methanex's strategic decision to increase Methanol prices, reflecting robust purchasing activity and higher contract agreements. This decision was substantiated by the announcement of supply disruptions, notably the idling of key production plants due to restricted gas supplies, which further strained the market.
Focusing on the USA, the Methanol market exhibited the most pronounced price changes. The overall trend was bullish, bolstered by seasonal increases in demand for construction materials and industrial applications. The interplay of high market fundamentals and consistent consumption patterns from the upstream coal market reinforced the price hike. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices surged by 25%, indicating a significant rebound and positive market sentiment. From the previous quarter in 2024, the prices recorded a 10% increase, underscoring the persistent upward trajectory of Methanol values. Ending Q2 2024, the Methanol price in the USA stood at USD 662/MT DEL Louisiana.
APAC
The Methanol market in the APAC region for Q2 2024 experienced notable fluctuations from bearishness toward bullishness. Aggressive spot offers and intense sales competition among regional sellers indicated an oversupplied market in April 2024, while the seasonal dip in demand, particularly due to the anticipated monsoon affecting industries like plywood and laminates, contributed to cautious buying behavior. Additionally, planned maintenance shutdowns of several chemical plants and the steady resumption of others created a volatile supply environment, further declining the market prices during May 2024. The quarter was marked by a complex interplay of supply-demand dynamics, high freight rates, and market sentiment. The rising transportation costs from the Middle East and fluctuating feedstock prices contributed significantly to higher imported Methanol prices across the region during June 2024. Japan, in particular, experienced the maximum price changes within the APAC region, reflecting a significant shift in its Methanol market. By the end of the quarter, Methanol prices in Japan reached USD 318/MT CFR Nagoya, reinforcing a positive pricing environment.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has seen methanol prices in the Europe region remain remarkably stable to bullish, influenced by several significant factors. Key among these was the balanced interplay between supply and demand, driven by ample inventories and cautious purchasing behaviors during April 2024. Data indicated that methanol supplies in key countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and France were sufficient to meet downstream demand. This comfortable supply situation allowed buyers to replenish their stocks without urgency, yet there was a notable hesitance to commit to large-volume purchases due to ongoing uncertainties in the market. This cautious approach from buyers stemmed from the prevailing market conditions, where the supply was adequate during May 2024. However, Methanol prices saw a remarkable 61% increase from the same quarter last year, driven primarily by post-pandemic recovery and subsequent demand resurgence. The high price in the feedstock market, particularly for thermal coal and natural gas, further contributed to a bullish price for Methanol amidst an increase in production cost during June 2024.
MEA
In the second quarter of 2024, the methanol market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced a mixed market sentiment followed by a significant downtrend in prices. In April 2024, the Middle East sellers were mostly away due to the Eid holidays with limited deals concluded in that period which declined the trend. However, focusing on Saudi Arabia, which has seen the most pronounced changes, the overall methanol market exhibited an overall upward trend this quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, methanol prices in Saudi Arabia have declined by 2%. Nevertheless, when compared to the previous quarter of 2024, prices surged by 10%, revealing a robust recovery. This price escalation in June 2024 was largely attributable to various dynamic factors, including heightened freight rates to Southeast Asia and South Korea, robust bidding activities, and steady purchasing interest, particularly from India and Southeast Asian markets. Additionally, the methanol market has been influenced by global market disruptions, such as rising production costs driven by increased feedstock prices, including coal and natural gas. These elements collectively contributed to a bullish pricing environment, reflecting a positive trend in regional market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North America Methanol market experienced a surge in demand and price trends in Q1 2024. The elevated demand was driven by steady downstream demand and elevation in market purchases. Additionally, the delay in the start of Methanex Corporation's new plant in Louisiana dampened expectations of ample spot supply to South Korea and China.
However, spot Methanol prices still increased due to an increase in spot market purchases. The downstream derivative market, including Formic Acid and Formaldehyde, remained stable with moderate demand from end-users. The USA continued to dominate the Methanol market, with contract prices following a series of stability towards the mid quarter in the wake of consistent market trades from the US to other American countries. Several shutdowns in January 2024 impacted the North America Methanol market.
These included Praxair in Geismar, Louisiana; Pampa Fuels LLC in Pampa, Texas; LyondellBasell Industries BV in Deer Park, Texas; and OCI Beaumont in Beaumont, Texas. While these disruptions had a short-term impact on the market, Methanol prices in North America continued to increase. Overall, the North America Methanol market in Q1 2024 saw a strong demand, price surge, and temporary disruptions due to weather-related shutdowns.
Asia Pacific
The Methanol market in the APAC region continued to witness a fluctuating trend in the first quarter of 2024. Several factors, including limited supply, moderate demand, and currency fluctuations, contributed to this trend. The market also experienced multiple plant shutdowns, which further impacted its dynamics. One of the key factors affecting the market was the limited supply of Methanol. Several plants in the APAC region faced shutdowns, resulting in a decrease in overall availability. Among the countries affected, South Korea experienced a bullish trend due to strong market trading fundamentals and increase in demand from the downstream derivative market. The price trend for Methanol in the APAC region remained bullish, as there was a slight increase of 7% in prices during the first half of the quarter, overall demand remained healthy. The price of Methanol CFR Busan in South Korea at the end of the quarter was recorded at USD 342/MT.The fluctuating trend in the Methanol market is attributed to the combination of limited supply and moderate demand throughout the quarter. In addition, multiple disruptions, such as a short supply of natural gas resulting in a force majeure event in China, a plant trip causing a force majeure event in Malaysia, and a plant trip with short-term impact also in Malaysia, further impacted the market dynamics. In conclusion, the Methanol market in the APAC region continued to experience a fluctuating trend in Q1 2024. Limited supply, moderate demand, and currency fluctuations were the primary factors affecting the market. The market was also influenced by multiple plant shutdowns, which contributed to the fluctuating prices.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Methanol market in Europe faced several challenges. The demand from downstream sectors, especially in the Formaldehyde and MTBE industries, was sluggish. These industries are major consumers of Methanol, and the reduced demand worsened the already difficult market conditions. Additionally, high inventories and weak trading environments further contributed to the decline in prices. Among European countries, France experienced the most significant changes in Methanol prices. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the Methanol FD Le Havre price dropped by 39%. The price trend for Methanol in France was influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics. While the sluggish demand in the regional market and low purchasing activities pulled the prices down. Moreover, sufficient product availability also contributed to the decline in prices. Overall, the market situation remained moderate, with an adequate to moderate supply and low to moderate demand. There were no plant shutdowns observed during the quarter. The quarter concluded with the Methanol FD Le Havre price at USD 337/MT in France.
MEA
In Q1 2024, the Methanol pricing dynamics in the MEA region were influenced by a range of factors. Overall, the market situation in Saudi Arabia played a significant role in the price fluctuations, with the country experiencing pronounced changes. The pricing trend in the region was influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, plant shutdowns, and market sentiment. In terms of supply, the Middle East saw low levels, with supply constraints due to crippling product availability. In terms of demand, the market experienced of high demand from downstream derivative markets such as Formic Acid and Formaldehyde. Additionally, market sentiment and economic conditions in the region played a role in shaping the pricing dynamics. However, the Methanol Contract FOB Al Jubail price in Saudi Arabia for March 2024 was USD 290/MT. In March 2024, Saudi Arabia witnessed a notable supply crunch, exacerbating the constrained supply already experienced in major importing regions, particularly India and China. This scarcity was further compounded by increased production costs within the vicinity, contributing to a challenging operating environment for methanol producers.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American Methanol market in Q4 2023 remained healthy with elevation in market situations and elevated demand from downstream derivative businesses. The market dynamics were affected by strong market sentiments, low-level inventories, and high trading fundamentals in the region.
The price trend was robust due to inadequate product stocks and an increase in spot market purchases. The increase in production cost, strong upstream market, and elevation in demand from the downstream markets affected the price trend. The USA experienced a surge in contract Methanol prices due to low-level inventories and high market fundamentals. The price trend was steady due to tepid market fundamentals and moderate purchasing activities.
The price of Methanol DEL Louisiana in the USA for Q4 2023 was USD 575/MT during Dec 2023. The Methanol market in the USA was stable with moderate demand and sufficient product inventories. The Methanol pricing in the North American region was affected by limited supplies and strong market sentiments of the product. Methanex, a supplier, distributor of Methanol raised their non discounted quotations of Methanol for US market after understanding the consumption of Methanol from its downstream derivative market.
Asia Pacific region
The APAC Methanol market witnessed a bullish trend in Q4 2023 due to low supply and strong demand from downstream derivative enterprises, resulting in a elevation in prices. Nevertheless, the market showed signs of recovery throughout the quarter, driven by a rise in market trades and demand recovery in Q4 2023.
South Korea was the most affected country in the region, with a 3.0% increase in Methanol prices in Dec. The increase was due to healthy acetic acid and formaldehyde requirements, low inventories, and higher trading in the regional market. The price trend was also affected by the low availability of the product in the region, which increased the demand and led to a surge in bulk trading.
The price trend for Methanol in South Korea decreased by 18% compared to the same quarter last year, while it increased by 17% compared to the previous quarter. The quarter ending price of Methanol CFR Busan in South Korea was USD 319/MT during Dec 2023.
Europe
The current quarter of 2023 (Q4) for Methanol in the European region was marked by a bearish market trend with weak demand fundamentals and inadequate supplier cost support. The sluggish market trend and weak cost support from the downstream derivative market caused a decline in new orders, leading to a decrease in manufacturers' quotes for the domestic market.
The negative market trend was accompanied by a lackluster demand recovery, which further plunged the prices. In the Netherlands, Methanol prices declined by 4.65% to USD 338/ton FD Rotterdam with weak demand fundamentals and dullness in demand recovery. The market situation in the Netherlands was sluggish with high supply, low demand, and sufficient Methanol supplies. However, the major driver of price decrease is continued to be the downstream industries' low rate of product consumption.
The price trend for Methanol in the Netherlands showed a correlation with the overall market trend, with a price percentage comparison of 17% between the first and second half of the quarter. The price change percentage from the current to the previous quarter was declined by 12%, while the percentage change from the last year same quarter was declined by 30%. The current quarter ending price of Methanol FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands is USD 338/MT in Dec 2023.
MEA
The Methanol market in the MEA region during Q4 2023 witnessed several significant factors that impacted prices. Firstly, there was a bearish market sentiment due to weaker demand fundamentals from downstream markets. The consumption of Methanol in the region remained low, leading to limited self-consumption and fewer exports. This imbalance in supply and demand exerted pressure on prices, resulting in a downward price trend.
Additionally, the challenging economic conditions and liquidity issues in the region further dampened market activity and purchasing power. In Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the region, Methanol prices remained on the lower end due to limited exports and sluggish domestic demand. The suppliers were not willing to negotiate price discounts on bulk purchases, reflecting the weak market sentiment.
The country experienced a decline in Methanol prices compared to the same quarter last year, with a percentage change of -27%. Furthermore, there was a decrease in prices from the previous quarter, with a percentage change of -6%. Although no plant shutdowns were reported during this quarter, the market was primarily influenced by the imbalance between supply and demand. The oversupply of Methanol and slow market offtakes contributed to the bearish market situation. The latest price of Methanol Contract FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia for the current quarter is USD 227/MT during Q4 2023.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In Q3 2023, the price trend of Methanol in the US showcased a bearish price trend with slow market fundamentals when compared with the previous quarter. In terms of the feedstock market, the Natural Gas market in the USA showcased a feeble price trend with an adequate inventory level. US natural gas futures fell to below USD 2.5/MMBtu in August, the lowest level since mid-June, prompted by prospects of lower demand and ample supplies. Regional Methanol manufacturers have announced plans to restrict run rates at their facilities even more in order to maintain low domestic supply and balance impoverished demand, while spot prices have fallen owing to bad market fundamentals. In August 2023, the price of Methanol in the USA declined to USD 524/ton DEL Louisiana. Due to restricted transactions, limited market fundamentals in the US region had a negative impact on the US Methanol market. Inventory levels increased among businesses, preventing prices from climbing higher. Most Methanol producers reduced output due to a combination of excess inventory and weak market fundamentals.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2023, the Chinese Methanol prices in July 2023 showcased a stable price trend due to tepid market fundamentals in the region with limited firmer offers and bids among the significant manufacturing units. Nevertheless, the bearish price of Methanol was observed in Aug 2023 and Sept 2023 due to adequate inventory level among the storage units, and players were able to provide discounts on the bulk purchases. In the Asian market, the trading fundamentals declined with limited purchasing activities. The product supply was adequate, with lower bidding for the product among the suppliers. This quarter, the trading environment declined, and suppliers raised their Methanol offers in the further hope of demand recovery. Regional inventories surged with limited imports from the region from Saudi Arabia to China. In September, the price of Methanol in China declined to USD 306/ton CFR Qingdao. The average operating rate of domestic Methanol plants had dropped to low with low purchasing activities in the region. China's domestic methanol supply rose, and the trades were mainly on an immediate basis.
MEA
The price of Methanol in Saudi Arabia had showcased a feeble price trend with the successive months in Q3 2023. Due to limited cost support from the upstream coal and Natural Gas market, regional Methanol prices showcased a bearish price trend along with adequate market fundamentals. In the Saudi Arabian market, the consumption of Methanol from the downstream ventures declined, and the trades were majorly held on an immediate basis. The supply of Methanol in the Saudi Arabian market surged, and the buyers remained hesitant to purchase the cargo in bulk. Discounts and offers were included for the premium purchase and to clear the existing inventories. Due to lackluster domestic demand, suppliers started rerouting their cargo to the South Asian market at negotiable rates. A 5,000-mt, H2 August loading cargo from the Middle East traded to India was traded, and the trading discussions were mostly flat with muted trading fundamentals. In Saudi Arabia, the price of Methanol showcased a price trend of USD 240/ton FOB Al Jubail during August 2023.
Europe
In Q3 2023, the price trend of Methanol in Europe declined when compared with the previous quarter in the wake of adequate product availability and low market fundamentals. Trading fundamentals of Methanol in Germany remain muted in the wake of subdued demand and deterred market fundamentals from the downstream enterprises. Methanol lost its gains coupled with new September lows this quarter due to a decline in production cost among the significant production units. On the supply side, the inventories among the storage units remain sufficient to sustain the downstream demand, forcing the producers to reduce their selling prices. In terms of the downstream market, the demand for Methanol from the downstream derivative market remains sluggish, mainly Formic Acid, with limited cost support among the traders. In September 2023, the price of Methanol in Europe declined to USD 309/ton CFR Hamburg. On the supply front, tank inventory of Methanol in coastal regions has increased to a record high, and the inland Methanol market is under increasing pressure as plant operating rates have lowered in order to reduce the existing inventory level.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
When compared with the previous quarter, the market fundamentals of Methanol in North America plunged in the wake of higher lower production costs and limited demand from the downstream ventures. In June 2023, the price of Methanol in the USA declined to USD 536/ton DEL Louisiana. Due to lackluster demand, high inventory levels, and a persistent pushback against shipments from the United States to the South American market, this has supported a downward trend in the spot market for Methanol. The downstream derivative market subsequently declined, has not improved, and the purchasing activities remained at low levels. Significant manufacturing units also cut their production rate to avoid stockpiles with lackluster market fundamentals. Exports of Methanol from the USA to the South American region also slumped, and the trades were mainly on a need-to basis. Methanex, the global distributor of Methanol, also traded their cargo at negotiable rates. The cost support of Methanol from feedstock Natural gas and Coal market also plunged, resulting in weak cost support.
Asia Pacific
With adequate product inventories and healthy inflows of Methanol cargoes from Saudi Arabia and the USA, the prices plummet with weak market fundamentals. The bid generated some selling interest in the region, with sellers looking to arbitrage some cargoes from China to Southeast Asia. The market fundamentals remain affected by low purchasing activities and high inventory levels among the significant manufacturing units. In terms of the downstream market, the Formaldehyde, and Formic Acid market also ended this quarter on a weaker note, with the prices bottomed out. In May 2023, the price of Methanol in China declined to USD 359/ton CFR Qingdao. In Malaysia, trade sources were puzzled by the spot requirement as the end-user could have purchased a spot from a Malaysian Methanol producer. The demand for Methanol from the downstream derivative market also remains weak, and the purchases were mainly on an immediate basis. Concerns over reduced downstream derivative demand persisted into June. Plus, the sluggish market fundamentals for the upstream coal and Natural Gas market had declined the production cost of Methanol.
Europe
In Q2 2023, the demand fundamentals in Europe remain weak, with limited purchasing activities from the downstream ventures. In terms of the upstream market, the Natural Gas market remains affected by sufficient Gas inventory level and lackluster demand outlook. In June 2023, Natural gas inventories were 70% full, and European Union aims to achieve a storage inventory target of 90% by November 1. The upstream coal market remains feeble with weak market fundamentals. Traders seek buyers for piles of unused coal before it becomes worthless after the fuel was hoarded to save Europe's economy from running out of power last year. The demand for Methanol from the downstream derivative and fuel additive market slumped, and purchasing activities also remained feeble. In the European market, Oversupply woes amid slower-than-expected demand recovery and recession fear have been the major factors to blame for this extended downturn. Lower production rates at significant production units in Germany declined Methanol economics. Product bidding and limited consumer engagement on the domestic market were factors in the downward pricing trend.
MEA
The Middle Eastern Methanol market continued to see very shallow liquidity. In Saudi Arabia, the market appeared significantly bearish this quarter, tracking lower market support from the feedstock Natural Gas and coal costs and pessimistic macroeconomic sentiments. As domestic spot demand remained sluggish, Methanol market trends appeared highly correlated with limited exports from Saudi Arabia to the Asian market. In June 2023, the price of Methanol in Saudi Arabia declined to USD 294/ton FOB Al Jubail. Limited demand for downstream Formic Acid and Formaldehyde industries remained the issue, but overall, the supply was sufficient. The cost of Methanol drops further where low interest, adequate stock, and a feeble downstream market stay the driving variables. As unfavorable fundamentals weighed on the outlook, the Methanol market ended the quarter with a lower volume. The Middle East's trading activity was sluggish, supported by a plentiful supply going to China, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. As unfavorable fundamentals weighed on the outlook, the Methanol market ended the quarter with a lower volume.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In Q1 2023, the Methanol market remained healthy in the first half of Q1 2023 with the uptick in the trading activities from the downstream ventures. With the increase in the Ex-quotation price of Methanol and the gradual increase in bidding for the fresh stock, major Methanol producers were able to increase the prices for bulk purchases. However, in the second half of 2023, the downstream market was also muted amid market uncertainty, feeble consumer interest, and limited exports from North America to Europe and the South American region. US Gulf spot Methanol prices decline amid thin purchasing activities and the US Spring break holiday. In March 2023, the price of Methanol in North America declined to USD 565/ton Ex-Louisiana.
Asia Pacific
In Jan 2023, the price of Methanol in the Asian region showcased a bullish trading activity with high purchasing activities during New -year's Eve. The demand for Methanol from the downstream Formic Acid and MTBE rose significantly with a gradual increase in regional trading activities. In terms of inventories, high-trading activities resulted in the continuous utilization of stocks from the downstream derivative market. However, in Feb 2023 and March 2023, buyers were reluctant to buy the cargo in bulk with weak market fundamentals. Methanol prices are weighed down by the accelerating arrival and unloading of cargoes from the Middle Eastern region amid limited purchasing activities.
Europe
In Europe, the price of Methanol surged throughout the quarter in the wake of higher product demand and limited product inventories among enterprises. With the increase in the upstream coal market, the production cost of Methanol surged, which provided a boost to the price trend. The spread between upstream coal and Methanol surged with an increase in profit margin among the ventures. Benchmark commodity for Methanol also rose with healthy exports from the Netherlands to the European region. On February 10, it was concluded that European Union (EU) ban on Methanol imports from Russia would not become effective until June 18.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In Q4 2022, the price of Methanol in North America declined in the succeeding months due to weak market fundamentals and limited purchasing activity in the region. In Dec, the price of Methanol in the US declined to USD 550/ton Ex-Louisiana. With falling feedstock Natural Gas prices and rising gas storage volume among the production units, the Methanol prices eased with weak market fundamentals. With rising inventories of Methanol among enterprises, buyers started purchasing the product on a need-to basis. The energy and Naphtha values slow which helps to provide ease in the Methanol and its derivative market. Exports of Methanol from the USA to South Korea and the European region also declined with lower bidding for the new stocks.
Asia Pacific region
In this quarter, the price of Methanol in China showcased an elevated trend in Oct, followed by a weak market trend in the following next two months. In Oct, the price of Methanol in China surged to USD 391/ton CFR Qingdao. In Nov, weak domestic demand kept a lid on price gains throughout the month. The market for Methanol from downstream Formic Acid and Formaldehyde slumped with weak trading sentiments. Indian Methanol prices showcased feeble price trends, sufficient product availability, and weak benchmark futures slumped the price trend. Incoming Methanol cargoes from Venezuela and Iran in the forthcoming weeks forced the producers to decrease the prices to avoid further stockpiles.
Europe
In Q4 2022, the price of Methanol in Germany remained on the lower end compared with the previous quarter. As producers continued to trade Methanol, they continued to face relatively high inventory levels. German methanol prices declined due to plentiful product supply and a weak market environment. As a result of sufficient product supplies among ports and downstream ventures, Saudi Arabia continues to have difficulty exporting Methanol to China. Potential recessionary impacts in a high energy price environment remain the driving element for price decrement. Regarding the feedstock market, Natural gas prices also faced a downward trend with weak benchmark futures.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
With the third quarter ending on September 2022, the price of Methanol in the USA ended with mixed sentiment. In H1, surging fuel costs and a steep drop in Methanol prices squeezed US manufacturers’ profitability. Average export buying prices of products throughout the northeast US also have registered steep drops with revised prices for the overseas suppliers. In August, the cost of Methanol in the US slipped to USD 599/ton Spot Ex-Louisiana. However, in the second half of this quarter, the prices gained a stance with strong market fundamentals and limited regional product availability. The sharp price increase was caused by the rise in export volume and limited inventories.
Asia-Pacific region
In the Asia Pacific region, the prices of Methanol declined in the first half of the third quarter. A healthy production rate and patchy downstream Acetic Acid and its derivative market slipped the costs of the product in the Chinese market. The inland Methanol market has been impacted by lukewarm demand, but the fundamentals were weak, resulting in a price decline. However, in the other half of the quarter, lower coastal inventory, expectations of fewer Iranian Methanol cargoes arriving in China in September, and higher crude oil prices bolstered Chinese Methanol prices. In September, the cost of Methanol in China was observed to be USD 366/ton CFR Qingdao.
Europe
In Q3 2022, the price of Methanol slipped drastically in July amid high Natural Gas. The producers tried to shift from Natural Gas to other conventional sources, reducing the costs of Methanol in the region. However, in the second half of this quarter, the prices started to emerge with limited inventories and low water levels at the Rhine River, affecting the transportation cost and delay in cargo deliveries. In September, the price of Methanol in Germany was USD 545/ton FD Hamburg. Towards the end of the quarter, Russian state-run Gazprom halved the Natural Gas supply flowing from Russia to Europe with 20% capacity, and the prices surged.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
With the starting of Q2 2022, the Methanol market slipped in the first half of the quarter due to the surging production rate of Methanol among the major producers, mainly Methanex, which reduced the prices for the US market. The operating cost of Methanol remained tepid, and the requirement for new stocks increased among the traders with low inventories. Exports to South Korea remained surged with supply constraints and increased consumption from the downstream enterprises. However, in the second half of the quarter, the price of Methanol surged record high due to rising tension between Russia and Ukraine, affecting the price trend. Feedstock Natural Gas futures rose with accelerating Henry Hub prices. Despite increment in production cost, the average selling prices of the product also increased with healthy demand from its downstream derivatives market. Towards the end of the quarter, the price of Methanol in the US surged to USD 530/ton Ex-Louisiana.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2022, the price of Methanol in the Asian region slipped due to oversupplies and weak market sentiments. With rising geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine, Russia diverted its Natural Gas cargoes to the Southeast and Far East Asian market, resulting in a price trend. By the end of the second quarter of 2022, the price of Methanol in India slipped to USD 403/ton Ex-Delhi/NCR. Indian Methanol market stayed meager with adequate incoming stock and deteriorating demand. In China, ample inflows of imported cargoes pressurized the margin among the downstream ventures affecting the sales and revenues. The downstream derivative market also remained affected by plummeted demand from end-user industries. In June, the price of Methanol slipped to USD 347/ton CFR Qingdao.
Europe
In Q2 2022, the price of Methanol in Europe surged owing to rising geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine, which elevated the prices this quarter. In June, the cost of Methanol surged to USD 656/ton CFR Hamburg. Germany's major Methanol producers are planning for the usage of Natural Gas by allowing energy companies to pass on cost increases. Bullish energy and utility costs in Europe forced the producers to increase the prices of Petrochemicals. Contract prices of Methanol also surged due to elevated demand and constraints on supply in the region. Driven by the rising cost, Methanol manufacturers intended to increase the price of their quotations.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
In Q4, the market trend of Methanol was observed to be increasing throughout the quarter. In January, the price of Methanol was USD 616/ton Ex-Louisiana, which was supported by the tightness of Natural Gas in the market USA and high demand in the chilling winter, which boosted the prices of Methanol. Towards the end of the quarter, the cost of Methanol surged to a new height of USD 660/ton with supply shortage and a reduction in production rates from the primary producers. Expanding the utilization of Methane by Nation's government to reduce environmental contamination combined with rising interest in Methanol from several end-client ventures sped up the cost. The prices of Methanol in USA in this quarter surged by 3.3% compared with Q4 2021.
Europe
In this quarter, the prices surged with the subsequent month, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict kept the price on the upper end. Seasonal demand growth coupled with higher scrap cost and concern that energy prices can grow further therefore Germany halted the certification process for Nord Stream 2 pipeline, following Moscow’s action in eastern Ukraine this quarter. However, the prices slipped towards the last week of March as the demand from the gasoline blending declined by a marginal level which led to a small dip in Methanol prices. In Germany, the price of Methanol towards the end of the quarter was observed to be USD 580/ton FD Hamburg. The surge of 4.4% was observed in this quarter when compared with prices in Q4 2021.
Asia Pacific
Ihe price of Methanol in China remained on the upper end in the first half of the quarter with solid market sentiments and insufficient product availability. However, towards the second half of the quarter, the prices slipped with reduced storage options; methanol stock remained high in East China because cargoes are ordinarily utilized for position-taking in future markets and only occasionally delivered. Ample demand for oil storage lessens options for Methanol. Adequate stock and frail interest pit load on the Methanol costs in the provincial market. Market sentiments in China soften on the assumption of a new Iranian methanol supply in March and higher close by methanol productions as Natural Gas cuts in China's southwest ease with the beginning of a warmer climate. In China, the price of Methanol in China last week slipped to USD 385/ton CFR Qingdao. The declination of 13.6% was observed in Q1 2022 when compared with the previous quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
In Q4, the price of Methanol is observed be on the upper side with increasing demand in downstream sector. Soaring across the board on fears that a new COVID-19 variant identified in Southern Africa created uncertainty in the market in the month of November. Methanol prices have been on the higher side, with latest prices reported as high as USD 645 per MT Ex-Works Louisiana on November 19th. Moving towards the end of Q4 2021, methanol consumption in automobile industry is also spotted to be on the higher side. US Methanol two largest marketers Methanex and Southern Chemical sales revenue increase with increase in the demand of Methanol as a fuel industry.
Asia Pacific
In India, the peak demand of Methanol in this quarter was observed to be on 15 October where the prices were surged to $652/ton Ex-Delhi NCR. Since then, the prices started to slip in most part of Asia. Dull values of feedstock Natural Gas has continued to pressurize Methanol prices across the region. As Methanol in India is mainly imported from Middle East, traders had observed a sharp fall in its offers as its major manufacturers have continued to implement a negative revision in its prices in line with the feedstock values. During the last week of December, the pricing trend of Methanol showcased an upward trajectory as the Ex-works Mumbai prices escalated to $418/ton on 28th December 2021. Several Asian producers increased their prices due to the strong demand from the downstream sectors. Increased prices and consumption of natural gas has positively affected the price fluctuations of Methanol in the country. Improved trading activities across the Asian market have also supported the price trend in India.
Europe
In Q4, the prices of Methanol observed to be surging till 22 October in Germany with price range of $575/ton-$604/ton CFR Hamburg. Demand for its downstream MTBE and Acetic Acid continued to remain strong. As domestic production has not been enough to cater to the demand, rapid increase in freight charges have further restricted the arrival of imports. In November, the prices started to slip where the prices on 26 Nov. slipped to $550/ton CFR Hamburg. Surplus Methanol supply in the region with weak downstream market resulted in this trend. In December, the European contract prices was agreed at $556/ton with spot prices in Rotterdam ending over 5% higher, the momentum in the prices were observed.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The overall pricing outlook of Methanol experienced a significant rise in the North American region during Q3 2021. The production of Methanol in the US observed a severe fall due to the occurrence of Hurricane Ida which made landfall on 29th August in Louisiana, causing shutdown of leading manufacturing plants including Methanex’s Geismar plants having a capacity of 1 mn MT/year and YCI’s St. James Methanol plant having a capacity of 1.7 Mn MT/year. Methanex’s Geismar plant went offline for a major part of September and thus resulted in a snug supply during the quarter. Spot prices of Methanol as assembled on the 1st week of October stood at USD 610 per MT Ex-Works Louisiana which indicated a gain of 12.5 % since the conclusion of August.
Asia
The prices of Methanol traced an upward trend in the Asia Pacific region during the third quarter followed by stable offtakes from the downstream industries amidst tight supply activities. The upward momentum of Methanol in Asia reached a new high during the end week of September with direction largely coming from China and India. Besides, as Methanol is majorly produced by the coal route in China, consistent hikes in coal prices since the beginning of Q3 has also levied an upward pressure upon its fundamentals in the regional market. Amidst the regional shortage, participants fetched Methanol cargoes from the Middle East which consequently registered a significant surge in its prices in the country. In India, the Methanol prices continued to hike weighed by the limited availability of the product in the domestic market, mainly Northeast Asia in Q3. The prices of Methanol in India witnessed a marginal increase from USD 422/MT to USD 449/MT during the third quarter.
Europe
In Q3 of 2021, the demand for Methanol remained high on the back of a shortage of raw materials and limited domestic production. Imports from the USA were tight as major producer YCI did not start producing Methanol during the quarter. In addition, OCIS’s plant in the Netherlands operated at its 50% capacity.
The prices of Methanol increased to USD 475/MT CFR Hamburg in September. Due to the limited overseas import and continuously increasing demand, the pricing of Methanol is expected to rise further in Q4. However, several players anticipate that the supply may stabilize with strengthening imports from the US.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
North America’s Methanol pricing traced upward trajectory during this quarter, backed by firm offtakes from the downstream segments in the midst of supply shortage. Producers reported sufficient enquiries from the downstream Acetic Acid, MTBE, and Formaldehyde manufacturers in the meanwhile. Average price of Methanol rose from USD 405/MT to USD 488/MT during this quarter in the USA. In addition, Methanol demand as an alternative fuel was also boosted in the global market with a key producer announcing expansion plans sensing the sharp uptick in its demand as a fuel.
Asia
The Asian Methanol market reported firm sentiment during this quarter, backed by stable offtakes from the downstream sectors amid tight supply activities. In China, prices kept fluctuating throughout the quarter, as the demand and supply fundamentals remained unstable for a larger part of Q2. The demand from the MTBE sector remained bullish throughout the quarter, while other sectors like Formaldehyde and Acetic Acid kept stable offtakes. While in India, prices kept rising due to shortage and halted imports activities in the country, under the second wave of pandemic. Indian Methanol demand remained low initially in April and May from the downstream sector, which improved during the month of June. Thus, the price of Methanol stood rangebound between USD 412/MT and USD 440/MT in India during June 2021.
Europe
The European Methanol demand remained high in Q2 2021, backed by firm demand from the downstream sectors amid tight import supply. World’s first Methanol barge bunkering was conducted at the Rotterdam port during May to observe the feasibility of barge-to-ship supply of Methanol in the world and the outcome was highly in favour of the industry. Downstream demand from derivatives such as MTBE and Acetic Acid remained firm, while the supply activity remained tight. Expensive cargoes also exacerbated the firm pricing across Europe during this quarter. Supply crunch was noted on account of disruptions heard at some major production plants.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
North America faced severe shortage of Methanol along with several other chemicals, due to winter storm across the US gulf. Winter storm totally chocked the Methanol production in the Texas, with several Methanol plants was facing shutdowns within Louisiana. It was estimated that close to 90% of the total Methanol production of North America was halted by the storm in mid-April. Moreover, imports from South America also remained low due to some plant shutdowns. Mitsubishi’s Venezuela plant Metanol de Oriente, having capacity of 750,000 MT per year faced turnaround during January. In addition, Methanex extended shutdown of its Methanol plant in Trinidad for indefinite time. This plant has a capacity of 600,000 MT per year. Extended marked gains, Methanol contract price settled by Methanex corp. for the month of April was around USD 519 per MT.
Asia
The Asian Methanol supply remained tight throughout Q1 2021, and price remained uplifted initially during January and February but later reduced till end of the quarter. There were several reasons behind the fluctuation in prices, one of them being Chinese Lunar Holidays that hampered the overall production of the country, which ultimately reduced the inventory levels and created shortage across the region. Another reason was hike in prices of European Methanol which was close to USD 430 per MT during February. Moreover, Methanex, a global Methanol producer declared the closure of New Zealand based Waitara Valley Methanol producing facility, due to business losses and was unable to sustain the production.
Europe
In Europe, Methanol supply remained tight amid moderate demand from the domestic market. The imports of Methanol were strictly low across the region due to several plant outages across North America. Although the import demand from several Asian countries was high, hence the domestic Methanol price skyrocketed during the first half of the quarter, which later reduced when the supply started to improve.
For the Quarter Ending June 2020
North America
Coronavirus weakened the Q2 demand outlook of the North American Methanol market, majorly driven by depressed dynamics in the US market. US Gulf coast spot Methanol prices slumped nearly to four-year lows as the nation continued to lead in terms of number of infections across the world. While downstream demand remained largely staged to the April levels, reduced blending of gasoline due to lower demand fundamentals further exacerbated the price fall. Monitoring the impact of persistent Methanol market dullness, several US giants such as Celanese and LyondellBasell cut their yearly capex plans and postponed their tentative plant expansions.
Asia
Asian Methanol market remained shrouded with uncertainties amid easing supply from the Middle east. Exported volumes to Southeast Asia continued to feel the pandemic pain despite lift in lockdown restrictions across several economies by the end of Q2 2020. Slowed demand from the downstream formaldehyde and solvent sectors, which comprise majority of the regional demand, led to mounting of inventories across the ports in India, Thailand and Singapore. Spot Methanol prices in China fell to record lows in the month of June, due to ample inflows of import cargoes further pressuring margins. Although the country seems to get over from pandemic blows, downstream demand is yet to rebound to the pre-pandemic levels.
