For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American Methanol market in Q4 2024 experienced notable price surges and dynamic market conditions driven by fluctuating demand and supply factors. Methanol prices in the USA rose sharply, with significant increases in October and November due to strong demand from the downstream Acetic Acid and Dimethyl Amine sectors, supported by heightened consumption in the paints and coatings industry.
Natural gas prices, a key feedstock, provided mixed cost support, remaining stable during the shoulder season but experiencing brief upward trends in November, adding to production costs. Meanwhile, global influences, including EU regulations promoting Methanol bunker fuel demand and record-breaking alternative fuel vessel orders, added momentum to the market. Despite sufficient inventories, supply chain disruptions such as the ILWU strike and BCMEA lockout in Canada exacerbated regional logistics challenges, while production outages in the U.S. and Europe in December tightened supply, pushing prices further.
Methanol prices continued to rise steadily throughout the quarter, reflecting robust demand and constrained supply, with December marking the culmination of this upward trend despite some flat demand from derivatives like paints and coatings. The sustained price increases showcased the resilience of the Methanol market in a volatile global environment.
APAC
The Methanol market in the APAC region exhibited a declining pricing trend during Q4 2024, driven by weak demand and balanced to oversupplied market conditions. In early October, Methanol prices in Japan remained stable due to balanced market fundamentals, supported by steady supply flows from the US and the Middle East and modest downstream demand. However, as the quarter progressed, prices began to decline, influenced by falling global coal prices, reduced electricity demand due to temperate weather, and maintenance of thermal power units, which lowered power plant consumption. Domestic demand for Methanol weakened, with derivative markets like formaldehyde and MTBE showing reduced activity. This was further compounded by steady production levels and ample inventory, creating a supply-demand imbalance that exerted downward pressure on prices. By late November and early December, the Methanol market in Japan showed stagnancy, as trading activity slowed ahead of year-end term contract negotiations, with market participants focusing on securing long-term supply arrangements rather than engaging in spot transactions. The combination of subdued demand, oversupply, and reduced trading activity contributed to the overall decline in Methanol prices across the APAC region during this period.
Europe
The European Methanol market witnessed a significant surge in prices during Q4 2024, driven by a combination of supply constraints and increased production costs. Early in the quarter, prices began to rise as natural gas costs escalated, reflecting higher winter demand and intensified competition for LNG cargoes. As natural gas is a critical feedstock for Methanol production, these higher costs translated into increased Methanol production expenses, which were passed on to the market. Despite a temporary decline in natural gas prices later in the quarter, Methanol prices continued to rise due to strengthened demand from derivative markets, particularly formaldehyde and other downstream applications. Production outages in both the U.S. and Europe further tightened supply, intensifying the upward pressure on prices. Additionally, geopolitical factors, including tensions in key energy markets and logistical challenges, exacerbated supply shortages. By December, the market reached peak pricing levels, reflecting persistent constraints and strong demand, with Middle East producers reportedly redirecting spot volumes to Europe to capitalize on the favourable market conditions. This sustained price increase highlighted the resilience of the European Methanol market amidst a volatile supply and demand environment.
South America
The South American Methanol market experienced a notable surge in prices during Q4 2024, fuelled by a combination of international supply constraints and robust downstream demand. Early in the quarter, the market remained relatively stable, supported by balanced supply-demand fundamentals and steady inflows from key exporting regions. However, as the quarter progressed, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and plant maintenance activities disrupted production rates in major Methanol-exporting countries, leading to tighter global supply. This global strain was compounded by increased demand from downstream sectors, including formaldehyde and MTBE production, both of which are integral to various industrial applications. In Brazil, these international challenges were further intensified by local factors such as rising freight rates and currency fluctuations, which elevated the cost of Methanol imports. The combination of constrained availability and increased logistical expenses created upward pressure on domestic prices. This trend underscores the Methanol market's sensitivity to global supply dynamics and highlights the cascading impact of international disruptions on regional pricing structures.
MEA
The Methanol market in the Middle East witnessed a noticeable decline in prices during Q4 2024, driven by a mix of weak demand fundamentals and an oversupply scenario. The quarter began with prices remaining largely stable due to balanced market conditions and consistent production levels, supported by steady feedstock costs. However, as the quarter advanced, a decline in global coal prices and temperate weather conditions reduced residential and industrial energy consumption, particularly in the power sector. This led to an overall softening of the energy market, which directly influenced Methanol pricing. Furthermore, subdued demand from key export destinations, such as Asia, significantly impacted market dynamics, as limited purchasing interest restricted price movement. Additionally, weak performance in derivative markets, including formaldehyde and MTBE, further reduced Methanol consumption rates, creating an imbalance between supply and demand. Toward the end of the quarter, trading activity diminished as market participants shifted focus to securing 2025 term contracts, resulting in a stagnancy in short-term transactions. Ample inventory levels and reduced offtake prevented any recovery, cementing the declining price trend for Methanol in the region.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Methanol market in North America witnessed a significant upward trajectory in prices, driven by a confluence of key factors. The region experienced a surge in Methanol prices due to tightening supply chains, heightened demand from downstream industries, and rising raw material costs.
Supply constraints stemming from plant shutdowns and disruptions in global supply chains contributed to the scarcity of Methanol, exerting upward pressure on prices. Moreover, robust demand from various sectors such as formaldehyde production and chemical manufacturing further fueled the price escalation.
Within the USA specifically, the market saw the most pronounced price changes, with a 38% increase from the same quarter last year. Notably, the quarter recorded an 8% price hike from the previous quarter in 2024, indicating a sustained upward trend. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a 4% price increase, highlighting consistent growth. The quarter culminated with Methanol Contract prices reaching USD 722/MT DEL Louisiana, underscoring the prevailing positive pricing environment in the USA market.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing Methanol prices across the APAC region, driven by a combination of factors influencing market dynamics. Demand remained steady from various downstream industries, such as formaldehyde and acetic acid production, while supply constraints and import volumes contributed to the price uptrend. Japan experienced the most significant price changes during this period, reflecting broader trends in the region. This positive outlook was further bolstered by a notable increase in demand from the formaldehyde and formalin sectors, which experienced significant growth due to the expansion of several production units. The quarter saw a notable 18% increase in Methanol prices compared to the same period last year, indicating a substantial shift in pricing dynamics. Additionally, there was a 7% price increase from the previous quarter in 2024, showcasing consistent upward momentum. The second half of the quarter recorded a 4% price increase compared to the first half, highlighting a sustained growth trajectory. Ultimately, the quarter-ending price of Methanol stood at USD 345/MT CFR Nagoya in Japan, reflecting the overall positive and increasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Methanol market in Europe experienced a notable uptick in prices, driven by various factors. Significant influences included a surge in demand from downstream industries, particularly in the formaldehyde and acetic acid sectors, leading to a tightening of supply levels. Additionally, rising energy costs and logistical challenges in shipping contributed to the overall bullish market sentiment. The Netherlands, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, reflecting the broader trends in the region. The feedstock natural gas prices have increased in August 2024 as surge was primarily due to geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict and potential supply disruptions at the Russian-Ukrainian border. The correlation between price changes and seasonality was evident, with the quarter-on-quarter increase of 11% and a substantial 50% increase from the same quarter last year highlighting the market's positive trajectory. The second half of the quarter saw a 5% price increase compared to the first half, indicating sustained growth. The quarter concluded with Methanol priced at USD 366/MT FD Rotterdam in the Netherlands, reflecting a consistently increasing pricing environment throughout Q3 2024.
MEA
The Methanol pricing landscape in the MEA region for Q3 2024 has been characterized by a notable uptrend, with several factors contributing to the price escalation. Various significant elements influenced market dynamics, including robust demand from key industries, supply chain disruptions, and elevated production costs. The quarter witnessed a 29% increase from the same period last year, indicating a substantial price surge driven by evolving market conditions. Notably, the previous quarter in 2024 saw a 6% price hike, reflecting a consistent upward trajectory. Within Saudi Arabia, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the Methanol market displayed a clear trend of increasing prices. Market trends were influenced by seasonal patterns and correlations in price changes, with a distinct 5% difference observed between the first and second half of the quarter. Despite fluctuating conditions, the quarter concluded with Methanol Contract prices reaching USD 305/MT FOB Al Jubail. This consistent price growth underscores a positive pricing environment, highlighting stability and optimism in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Methanol pricing in North America has experienced significant upward momentum, driven by a confluence of market factors. The quarter was marked by heightened demand from downstream sectors, particularly Formaldehyde and adhesives, coupled with restrained global supply due to production halts and logistical challenges during June 2024.
A pivotal factor was Methanex's strategic decision to increase Methanol prices, reflecting robust purchasing activity and higher contract agreements. This decision was substantiated by the announcement of supply disruptions, notably the idling of key production plants due to restricted gas supplies, which further strained the market.
Focusing on the USA, the Methanol market exhibited the most pronounced price changes. The overall trend was bullish, bolstered by seasonal increases in demand for construction materials and industrial applications. The interplay of high market fundamentals and consistent consumption patterns from the upstream coal market reinforced the price hike. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices surged by 25%, indicating a significant rebound and positive market sentiment. From the previous quarter in 2024, the prices recorded a 10% increase, underscoring the persistent upward trajectory of Methanol values. Ending Q2 2024, the Methanol price in the USA stood at USD 662/MT DEL Louisiana.
APAC
The Methanol market in the APAC region for Q2 2024 experienced notable fluctuations from bearishness toward bullishness. Aggressive spot offers and intense sales competition among regional sellers indicated an oversupplied market in April 2024, while the seasonal dip in demand, particularly due to the anticipated monsoon affecting industries like plywood and laminates, contributed to cautious buying behavior. Additionally, planned maintenance shutdowns of several chemical plants and the steady resumption of others created a volatile supply environment, further declining the market prices during May 2024. The quarter was marked by a complex interplay of supply-demand dynamics, high freight rates, and market sentiment. The rising transportation costs from the Middle East and fluctuating feedstock prices contributed significantly to higher imported Methanol prices across the region during June 2024. Japan, in particular, experienced the maximum price changes within the APAC region, reflecting a significant shift in its Methanol market. By the end of the quarter, Methanol prices in Japan reached USD 318/MT CFR Nagoya, reinforcing a positive pricing environment.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has seen methanol prices in the Europe region remain remarkably stable to bullish, influenced by several significant factors. Key among these was the balanced interplay between supply and demand, driven by ample inventories and cautious purchasing behaviors during April 2024. Data indicated that methanol supplies in key countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and France were sufficient to meet downstream demand. This comfortable supply situation allowed buyers to replenish their stocks without urgency, yet there was a notable hesitance to commit to large-volume purchases due to ongoing uncertainties in the market. This cautious approach from buyers stemmed from the prevailing market conditions, where the supply was adequate during May 2024. However, Methanol prices saw a remarkable 61% increase from the same quarter last year, driven primarily by post-pandemic recovery and subsequent demand resurgence. The high price in the feedstock market, particularly for thermal coal and natural gas, further contributed to a bullish price for Methanol amidst an increase in production cost during June 2024.
MEA
In the second quarter of 2024, the methanol market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced a mixed market sentiment followed by a significant downtrend in prices. In April 2024, the Middle East sellers were mostly away due to the Eid holidays with limited deals concluded in that period which declined the trend. However, focusing on Saudi Arabia, which has seen the most pronounced changes, the overall methanol market exhibited an overall upward trend this quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, methanol prices in Saudi Arabia have declined by 2%. Nevertheless, when compared to the previous quarter of 2024, prices surged by 10%, revealing a robust recovery. This price escalation in June 2024 was largely attributable to various dynamic factors, including heightened freight rates to Southeast Asia and South Korea, robust bidding activities, and steady purchasing interest, particularly from India and Southeast Asian markets. Additionally, the methanol market has been influenced by global market disruptions, such as rising production costs driven by increased feedstock prices, including coal and natural gas. These elements collectively contributed to a bullish pricing environment, reflecting a positive trend in regional market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North America Methanol market experienced a surge in demand and price trends in Q1 2024. The elevated demand was driven by steady downstream demand and elevation in market purchases. Additionally, the delay in the start of Methanex Corporation's new plant in Louisiana dampened expectations of ample spot supply to South Korea and China.
However, spot Methanol prices still increased due to an increase in spot market purchases. The downstream derivative market, including Formic Acid and Formaldehyde, remained stable with moderate demand from end-users. The USA continued to dominate the Methanol market, with contract prices following a series of stability towards the mid quarter in the wake of consistent market trades from the US to other American countries. Several shutdowns in January 2024 impacted the North America Methanol market.
These included Praxair in Geismar, Louisiana; Pampa Fuels LLC in Pampa, Texas; LyondellBasell Industries BV in Deer Park, Texas; and OCI Beaumont in Beaumont, Texas. While these disruptions had a short-term impact on the market, Methanol prices in North America continued to increase. Overall, the North America Methanol market in Q1 2024 saw a strong demand, price surge, and temporary disruptions due to weather-related shutdowns.
Asia Pacific
The Methanol market in the APAC region continued to witness a fluctuating trend in the first quarter of 2024. Several factors, including limited supply, moderate demand, and currency fluctuations, contributed to this trend. The market also experienced multiple plant shutdowns, which further impacted its dynamics. One of the key factors affecting the market was the limited supply of Methanol. Several plants in the APAC region faced shutdowns, resulting in a decrease in overall availability. Among the countries affected, South Korea experienced a bullish trend due to strong market trading fundamentals and increase in demand from the downstream derivative market. The price trend for Methanol in the APAC region remained bullish, as there was a slight increase of 7% in prices during the first half of the quarter, overall demand remained healthy. The price of Methanol CFR Busan in South Korea at the end of the quarter was recorded at USD 342/MT.The fluctuating trend in the Methanol market is attributed to the combination of limited supply and moderate demand throughout the quarter. In addition, multiple disruptions, such as a short supply of natural gas resulting in a force majeure event in China, a plant trip causing a force majeure event in Malaysia, and a plant trip with short-term impact also in Malaysia, further impacted the market dynamics. In conclusion, the Methanol market in the APAC region continued to experience a fluctuating trend in Q1 2024. Limited supply, moderate demand, and currency fluctuations were the primary factors affecting the market. The market was also influenced by multiple plant shutdowns, which contributed to the fluctuating prices.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Methanol market in Europe faced several challenges. The demand from downstream sectors, especially in the Formaldehyde and MTBE industries, was sluggish. These industries are major consumers of Methanol, and the reduced demand worsened the already difficult market conditions. Additionally, high inventories and weak trading environments further contributed to the decline in prices. Among European countries, France experienced the most significant changes in Methanol prices. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the Methanol FD Le Havre price dropped by 39%. The price trend for Methanol in France was influenced by a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics. While the sluggish demand in the regional market and low purchasing activities pulled the prices down. Moreover, sufficient product availability also contributed to the decline in prices. Overall, the market situation remained moderate, with an adequate to moderate supply and low to moderate demand. There were no plant shutdowns observed during the quarter. The quarter concluded with the Methanol FD Le Havre price at USD 337/MT in France.
MEA
In Q1 2024, the Methanol pricing dynamics in the MEA region were influenced by a range of factors. Overall, the market situation in Saudi Arabia played a significant role in the price fluctuations, with the country experiencing pronounced changes. The pricing trend in the region was influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, plant shutdowns, and market sentiment. In terms of supply, the Middle East saw low levels, with supply constraints due to crippling product availability. In terms of demand, the market experienced of high demand from downstream derivative markets such as Formic Acid and Formaldehyde. Additionally, market sentiment and economic conditions in the region played a role in shaping the pricing dynamics. However, the Methanol Contract FOB Al Jubail price in Saudi Arabia for March 2024 was USD 290/MT. In March 2024, Saudi Arabia witnessed a notable supply crunch, exacerbating the constrained supply already experienced in major importing regions, particularly India and China. This scarcity was further compounded by increased production costs within the vicinity, contributing to a challenging operating environment for methanol producers.
