For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the U.S. Malic Acid market experienced significant fluctuations, driven by supply and demand imbalances, inventory levels, and global market conditions. The quarter started with a price increase due to strong domestic and export demand, particularly from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors.
However, by mid-October, prices began to decline due to weakened demand and high inventories. Despite attempts to stimulate demand with discounts, weak sentiment persisted, and supply issues worsened due to production constraints and disruptions like the Golden Week holiday in China. In November, prices showed modest rises but remained volatile due to high inventory levels and sluggish demand from key sectors.
By mid-December, competitive pricing from Chinese suppliers further influenced U.S. imports, driving price decreases. However, by late December, the market saw a slight decline in prices, influenced by stable demand and lower production costs. Overall, the market saw a gradual decline in prices throughout Q4, with fluctuations driven by shifting demand, production dynamics, and external factors such as raw material prices and supply chain issues. The overall trend for Q4 was a price decline with periods of volatility.
Asia Pacific
The Malic acid market in Q4 2024 experienced a predominantly bearish trend, with fluctuating prices reflecting supply and demand pressures. Early October saw stable conditions, driven by consistent supply dynamics and a temporary holiday break in China. However, as the quarter progressed, the market shifted towards a buyer-friendly environment, with increasing oversupply due to rising domestic production and reduced exports from China.
Despite a brief period of price increases in mid-October, these were short-lived, as weak downstream demand and high inventories led to price declines towards the end of the month. Throughout November, Malic acid prices continued their downward trajectory, influenced by inventory destocking, weak demand, and reduced manufacturing activity.
By December, the market remained sluggish, with prices fluctuating as suppliers focused on managing excess stock and adjusting to the economic downturn. Despite slight price recoveries due to tight supply conditions in mid-December, market sentiment remained cautious. Overall, Q4 was marked by price contraction driven by oversupply, limited demand growth, and ongoing economic challenges.
Europe
The overall trend for the fourth quarter of 2024 in the Malic Acid market has been a steady price decline, driven by weak demand, abundant inventories, and lower production costs. Despite a significant price surge in October due to high domestic and export demand, inventory shortages, and production constraints, the market quickly shifted as global economic conditions, particularly in the eurozone, worsened.
By November and December, prices started to decrease due to low domestic consumption, reduced business activity, and oversupply. In Italy, the market saw continued price reductions, with weaker downstream demand and declining raw material costs, particularly Maleic Anhydride, putting downward pressure on pricing. Export demand remained steady but was not sufficient to counteract the bearish sentiment from regional market struggles.
Producers attempted to manage inventories and production, offering discounts to clear stock. The outlook for the Malic Acid market remains negative, with cautious trading and limited recovery potential as the eurozone’s economic outlook remains uncertain. Overall, the market experienced a shift from optimism to a bearish sentiment through Q4 2024.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Malic Acid market witnessed a notable increase in prices, driven by a confluence of factors. Heightened demand both domestically and internationally played a significant role in pushing prices upward. Supply challenges originating from major exporting regions, coupled with escalating production costs and geopolitical tensions, further fueled the price surge. Market activity intensified due to low inventory levels and increased purchasing ahead of anticipated market disruptions.
However, the prices did decrease at the beginning and at the termination of Q3, but the overall trend showcased a positive trajectory. The weak demand signals from neighbouring regions and subdued trading activity continued to push prices downward. Exporting nations also faced declining prices, adding further pressure on the U.S. market. Lower new orders reduced demand for inputs, leading to shorter supplier lead times for the first time in three months, contributing to the bearish market sentiment.
Overseas buyers remained cautious, purchasing only as needed, which weakened the already soft market. This persistent drop in buying interest and trading activity reflected a pessimistic outlook. The quarter-ending price of Malic acid CFR New York in the USA stood at USD 1833/MT with ana average quarterly inclination of 0.09%, indicating a consistent increasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
Asia Pacific
The Chinese Malic Acid market experienced notable volatility in Q3 2024, characterized by a general decline in prices. The prices recorded at the end of Q3 were USD 1514/MT FOB Shanghai with an average quarterly decline of 2.79%. This bearish sentiment stemmed from weakening demand, oversupply, and economic challenges within China's manufacturing sector. An explosion at Ningbo port on August 9 disrupted operations and impacted raw material supplies.
Q3 showed mixed trends, reflecting a decrease amid fluctuating price stability influenced by evolving supply-demand dynamics. Key factors influencing the market included persistent oversupply due to increased production capacities and aggressive inventory reductions. The fluctuating prices of raw materials, especially Maleic Anhydride, significantly impacted pricing strategies. Demand challenges were evident in the manufacturing sector, reflected by declining PMI figures and persistent deflationary pressures.
While the Logistics Market Index rose to 51.5% in August, indicating improved supply chain efficiency, manufacturing sector challenges and weak consumer confidence persisted. International trade dynamics also played a crucial role, with fluctuations in the yuan impacting export competitiveness and complicated by geopolitical tensions and high freight costs
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Malic Acid market in Europe experienced a period of increasing prices driven by a combination of global and local factors. The market saw significant upward pressure on prices due to supply chain disruptions, rising input costs, and heightened demand across various industries. These factors, such as reduced vessel traffic, port congestion, and fluctuating demand, have contributed to the escalating prices of Malic Acid.
Netherlands, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes during this quarter. The region experienced notable price fluctuations, reflecting the overall trends seen in the European market. The latest quarter-ending price for Malic Acid CFR Rotterdam in Netherlands stood at USD 2029/MT with an average quarterly inclination of 0.16%, signaling a consistent upward trajectory in pricing.
However, the prices did decrease at the termination of Q3. Lower energy costs have reduced production expenses, while global market shifts have impacted this significant importer. Weak demand from key end-use sectors has led companies to offload excess inventories, creating a market surplus and further driving prices down. Reduced freight and shipping costs have facilitated easier access to Malic Acid, exacerbating the oversupply. Consequently, traders are liquidating their holdings, leading to intensified competition and additional price reductions. Overall, the pricing environment in Europe for Malic Acid in Q3 2024 has been characterized by positive momentum, with prices steadily increasing.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 for Malic Acid in North America has been characterized by stable prices, with the market reflecting equilibrium between supply and demand dynamics. The pricing stability can be attributed to several key factors influencing market prices. Factors such as consistent production output meeting current demands, a balanced inventory level, and sustained demand from downstream sectors have contributed to the overall stability in prices. Additionally, the stable pricing environment has been influenced by consistent consumer sentiment and optimistic economic conditions, leading to a lack of significant price fluctuations.
In the USA, the market has witnessed the most significant price changes, with a notable -21% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. The quarter-on-quarter change recorded at -2% further emphasizes the downward trend in prices. However, despite these declines, the price remained consistent throughout the quarter, with no fluctuations observed between the first and second half. The quarter-ending price of USD 1810/MT of Malic acid CFR New York in the USA signifies the stable pricing environment prevailing in the region. This stability reflects a neutral sentiment in the market, indicating a balanced and steady pricing trend for Malic Acid in the USA during Q2 2024.
Asia Pacific
The Malic Acid market in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region experienced a significant downturn during the second quarter of 2024, with China at the epicenter of the most dramatic price fluctuations. This period was characterized by a perfect storm of market challenges, creating a complex and volatile environment for industry participants. The primary factors driving this downturn included a substantial oversupply of Malic Acid, likely resulting from increased production capacities or stockpiling, coupled with a sharp decline in demand across various sectors. This demand reduction may have been influenced by broader economic slowdowns, changes in consumer preferences, or shifts in industrial applications of Malic Acid.
Compounding these issues were significant logistical challenges, possibly stemming from disruptions in global shipping, port congestions, or regional transportation difficulties, which further exacerbated the market imbalance. The geopolitical landscape also played a crucial role, with ongoing tensions between major economies potentially leading to trade restrictions, tariffs, or other barriers that impacted the free flow of Malic Acid in international markets. Moreover, a general weakening of consumer confidence, possibly due to inflationary pressures, job market uncertainties, or other economic concerns, led to reduced spending in industries that typically consume Malic Acid, creating a ripple effect throughout the supply chain.
China, as a key player in the global Malic Acid market, bore the brunt of these challenges. Even on a quarter-to-quarter basis, prices declined by 3%, indicating that the negative trend persisted throughout the early months of 2024. By the end of the quarter, the price for DL Malic Acid FOB-Shanghai had fallen to USD 1630 per metric ton, a figure that starkly illustrates the prevailing negative sentiment in the market.
Europe
The European Malic Acid market in the second quarter of 2024 initially demonstrated remarkable stability, characterized by consistent prices and minimal fluctuations due to stable supply levels, subdued demand, and normalized freight charges. Italy served as a key indicator of broader European trends, with its price movements closely aligning with regional patterns. For most of the quarter, there was no significant price variance, underscoring the persistent stability. However, as the quarter drew to a close, an unexpected and considerable surge in prices occurred, catching many market participants off guard. This late-quarter price increase was attributed to supply chain disruptions, a sudden spike in demand from key industries, speculative buying, and possible geopolitical events affecting trade dynamics. By the quarter's end, the price for Malic Acid FOB Milano in Italy stood at USD 3150 per metric ton, reflecting this last-minute surge and serving as a new benchmark for the European market. This sudden shift from stability to volatility presents both challenges and opportunities for industry stakeholders, introducing uncertainty into the market and potentially complicating long-term planning and contract negotiations. Looking ahead, market participants must remain vigilant to potential continued volatility and closely monitor the factors behind this unexpected price increase.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the pricing environment for Malic acid in North America was characterized by fluctuations and significant price increases. The latest quarter-ending price for Malic acid in the US was USD 1910/MT CFR New York, showing an average quarterly increase of 0.53%.
The USA experienced rising prices due to various factors: production slowdowns, maintenance shutdowns, export restrictions, increased freight charges, and low inventories. Dependence on Chinese imports worsened due to disruptions in Chinese provinces during Lunar New Year, constraining supplies and raising prices. Post-Lunar New Year, global demand for Malic acid surged, influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and increased container freight rates, causing another price hike in March. The US, a major importer, felt these effects, adjusting prices to remain competitive amid limited inventories and delayed supplies from exporting regions. Concerns over potential disruptions in the Mississippi River due to weather further intensified inquiries and pushed prices up.
The price of raw material, propionic acid, also contributed to the hike. Despite a slight decrease in the middle of Q1, the Malic acid market eventually saw falling prices and unified sentiment, partly due to strategic actions by the USA influencing global prices. Factors like reduced raw material costs and declining manufacturing activity in the USA led to lower prices as downstream enterprises adjusted procurement strategies.
Asia Pacific
In the initial three months of 2024, Malic acid prices in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region remained largely steady, albeit with some fluctuations in certain countries. Specifically, the closing price for Malic acid in China at the end of the quarter was recorded at USD 1770/MT FOB Shanghai, showing an average quarterly increase of 0.58%.
However, this period posed challenges for the APAC Malic Acid market, marked by a persistent decrease in prices. Several factors contribute to this downward trajectory. Firstly, there has been a drop in demand from downstream sectors, resulting in subdued buying activity. Additionally, market players have engaged in destocking endeavors, aiming to reduce their inventory levels, which has further driven prices down. China, in particular, has witnessed substantial price fluctuations in its Malic Acid market, with a consistent downward trend observed throughout the quarter.
Factors such as diminished domestic and international demand have led to an oversupply of Malic Acid, intensifying price pressures. The typical seasonal pattern, with the first quarter experiencing weaker demand, has also contributed to the overall price decline. Moreover, there is a clear correlation between reduced prices and decreased demand from downstream industries.
Europe
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the European market for Malic acid experienced a fluctuating landscape influenced by a myriad of factors. Ending the quarter at USD 2075/MT CFR Rotterdam in Netherlands, Malic acid prices saw a quarterly decline of 3.94%.
This decline was part of a broader downturn in the market, marked by reduced prices and a unified market sentiment, largely steered by Netherlands's strategic decisions. As a key importer, Netherlands measures to uphold its global competitiveness, including adjusting pricing strategies, reverberated throughout the market. However, this was not the sole driver of market trends. The decrease in the cost of raw material maleic anhydride in Netherlands, fueled by weakened demand projections and reduced manufacturing activity in the Eurozone, also played a significant role. The market responded to these dynamics by adapting pricing strategies and actively reducing inventories to avoid surplus stockpiles. Despite these efforts, challenges arose, such as declining local inquiries complicating destocking and export hurdles leading to order cancellations and delays. Seasonal factors and decreases in domestic raw material prices added further pressure on Malic acid prices, with discounted products saturating the market and consolidating the downward trend.
March saw a price increase, partially attributed to Netherlands's role as a key importing hub and its intricate ties with major exporting nations. The resumption of production activities in these exporting countries, along with the easing of trade disruptions and export momentum halts, provided some resilience to importing nations' market players.
