For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in North America displayed a mixed trend, with prices initially rising in July before declining for the rest of the quarter. Compared to the same period last year, the market saw an overall decrease, primarily due to moderate to low demand from key industries such as construction, automotive, and packaging.
Supply constraints, caused by production disruptions and adverse weather events, including hurricanes, further strained logistics and operations, contributing to price fluctuations. Additionally, variations in feedstock Ethylene prices, along with changes in upstream Naphtha and Crude oil costs, had a notable impact on the market.
The USA experienced the most significant price fluctuations, driven by weakened demand, stable supply levels, competitive pricing from other regions, and lower costs of imported materials. As a result, LLDPE Film Butene-based grade FOB Texas prices fell by 0.8% in September compared to the previous month. This trend underscored a stable to negative pricing environment, highlighting the intricate balance of supply and demand factors shaping the LLDPE market in the region during Q3 2024.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the APAC region saw a decline in prices, driven by several key factors. Weaker demand, particularly in the construction, automotive, and packaging sectors, was a primary contributor to this downward trend. Heavy rainfall in major markets disrupted construction activities, leading to decreased demand for construction materials. The off-season also further suppressed demand, causing lower operating rates in downstream industries. The drop in feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuations in Crude oil costs also played a role in reducing LLDPE prices, impacting the market throughout the quarter. Typhoon Yagi additionally caused significant disruptions across Asia, particularly in southern China and Vietnam, worsening logistical issues. The super typhoon brought destruction to northern Vietnam and heavy rains to southern China, causing delays in ocean logistics from Haiphong, vessel hold-ups, and container terminal closures in Hong Kong. Severe weather intensified congestion at East Asian ports, leading to longer waiting times at key Chinese ports like Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Yantian due to vessel bunching, further straining supply chains. In Japan, the LLDPE market faced notable price adjustments, with FOB Yokkaichi prices dropping by 4% in August and another 0.4% in September, reflecting the ongoing price declines and stable yet sluggish market conditions.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in Europe experienced a period of increasing prices, with significant factors driving this trend. The market was influenced by rising costs of feedstock Ethylene, and upstream Naphtha leading to heightened cost pressures on the product. Further, the fluctuations in the Crude oil prices influenced the market dynamics. Supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions in the region and port congestions have led to limited availability of LLDPE grades further contributing to the price surge. Furthermore, LLDPE supply remained tight, worsened by a sharp decline in the manufacturing sector, which saw significant drops in new orders, purchasing activity, and employment during September. The UK, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices rose illustrating a consistent upward trajectory. Thus, the price of LLDPE Film Butene-based FD Surrey (UK) surged by a 4.5% rise in August followed by a marginal rise of 0.2% in September, showcasing a stable and positive pricing environment in this quarter.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the MEA region exhibited a mixed pattern, with prices initially rising before declining sharply for the remainder of the quarter. This downward trend was primarily driven by weak demand from downstream sectors, particularly packaging, automotive, and construction. The sluggish demand was further impacted by a bearish global economic outlook, leading to cautious trading behavior and lower buying interest. Additionally, geopolitical tensions created market uncertainty, affecting both buyers and suppliers. The downward price trend was also influenced by the declining feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuating Crude oil costs. Furthermore, abundant product availability amid reduced demand levels added to the negative market sentiment. In Saudi Arabia, prices fluctuated significantly, showing a sharp decline compared to the same period last year. The latter part of the quarter saw a more pronounced drop, with LLDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail (Saudi Arabia) prices falling by 3% in August, followed by a further 1.6% decrease in September, highlighting the overall negative pricing environment in the region.
South America
In Q3 2024, the South American Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market displayed a mixed pattern, with prices rising by 3.9% in July before entering a downward trend for the remainder of the quarter, particularly in Brazil. Several factors drove this trend. The global decline in costs for imported materials allowed local prices to decrease as ample domestic supply met market demand. This was further influenced by subdued international buyer activity, leading to cautious purchasing behaviors and a preference for more competitively priced resins from other regions. In Brazil, the market faced obstacles like port congestion, disruptions from the hurricane season, and wildfires, all of which impacted supply and pricing dynamics. Weather-related challenges also led to logistical and production issues, further affecting prices across the region. Brazil saw the most pronounced price changes, with a consistent decline throughout the quarter due to weak demand and abundant supply. Compared to the same period last year and the previous quarter, prices continued to decrease, reflecting a bearish market sentiment. Specifically, LLDPE Film grade CR Santos (Brazil) prices dropped by 1.8% in August and 0.8% in September 2024, illustrating the negative pricing environment throughout Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in North America experienced a notable downward pricing trend, primarily influenced by several key factors. A surplus in supply coupled with subdued demand from critical downstream industries such as construction, packaging, and automotive applied significant downward pressure on prices. This overabundance of inventory, driven by a well-maintained production rate amid adequate feedstock availability, led to aggressive price competition among suppliers.
Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices further exacerbated market instability, influencing feedstock Ethylene costs and consequently suppressing LLDPE prices.
Focusing on the USA, which saw the most substantial price shifts, the overall market demonstrated a consistent bearish trend. Seasonality played a role, with the onset of the summer construction season failing to bolster demand as anticipated. Instead, high inventory levels and logistical challenges, including supply chain disruptions, contributed to the declining price environment.
The quarter concluded with LLDPE Film Butene-based grade priced at USD 1138/MT FOB Texas. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 was decidedly negative, dominated by a persistent decline driven by supply-demand imbalances, logistical inefficiencies, and external economic factors.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) pricing in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region exhibited a trend of rising prices. This increase was predominantly driven by several critical factors, including elevated upstream crude oil prices and escalating freight rates, despite stable feedstock Ethylene prices. Supply constraints due to ongoing plant maintenance and logistical challenges, such as container shortages and vessel booking difficulties, further exacerbated cost pressures. Additionally, energy costs remained high, contributing to the overall upward pricing momentum. These elements collectively created a challenging market environment, impacting both supply and delivery schedules. Focusing on Japan, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the overall trend reflected an increasing sentiment. Seasonality played a role, with demand from the downstream construction and automotive sectors bolstering prices. The latest quarter-ending price for LLDPE in Japan stood at USD 1103/MT FOB Yokkaichi, underscoring the trend of rising prices amid stable yet pressured market conditions. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 for LLDPE in the APAC region, particularly in Japan, has been characterized by an increasing trend, reflecting the complex interplay of supply constraints, logistical challenges, and sustained demand from key industries. Despite some historical declines, the latter part of the quarter demonstrated an upward price trajectory, indicating a cautiously positive market outlook.
Europe
Q2 2024 has been a challenging period for Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) in the European region, characterized by a consistent downward pressure on prices. The market faced a confluence of factors that led to price depreciation. Subdued demand from downstream industries, such as construction and automotive, played a critical role in the overall price decline. This lackluster demand was further compounded by high inventory levels, resulting in an oversupply situation despite periodic disruptions in logistical channels, such as those stemming from severe weather events in Germany. Additionally, competitive pressures from increased global exports, particularly from the USA and the Middle East, exacerbated the supply glut, while economic uncertainties and rising inflation in the Eurozone curbed consumer confidence and spending. Germany, experiencing the most significant price fluctuations, exemplified these dynamics. The overall trend for LLDPE in Germany during Q2 2024 has been predominantly negative, with prices exhibiting a marked seasonality downturn. Correlating with broader economic indicators, the price of LLDPE Film FD Hamburg saw a year-over-year decrease of 4%, underscoring the market's struggle with persistent supply-demand imbalances. Compared to the previous quarter, prices dropped by 2%, reflecting the intensification of these adverse market conditions. The second half of the quarter witnessed a further 5% price decline compared to the first half, illustrating the cumulative effects of sustained oversupply and weak demand. The quarter-ending price for LLDPE Film FD Hamburg in Germany settled at USD 1485/MT, encapsulating the quarter's overall negative pricing environment. This consistent depreciation underscores a bearish market sentiment driven by external economic pressures and internal market dynamics, suggesting a period of recalibration may be necessary for future stability.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the MEA region experienced a fluctuation in prices, as the prices remained stable in April, and declined in May, however, witnessed an escalation in June, by quarter end. Several factors contributed to this trend, including easing feedstock Ethylene prices and Crude oil price fluctuations. The construction and packaging sectors showed a decrease in demand for LLDPE, while geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, particularly in the Red Sea, affected supply. Freight rates saw a slight increase, but the impact on overall pricing remained contained due to balanced market conditions. In Saudi Arabia, the LLDPE market exhibited the most notable price changes within the MEA region. Though the trend remained declining, nevertheless, it rebounded in June amid an escalation in the freight rates amid Red Sea disturbances and port congestions in the Asian region. which has impacted the prices of the products globally and has led to a price surge. Thus, the price of LLDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia reached USD 1020/MT by the quarter-end in June 2024.
South America
In Q2 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in South America experienced a notable downward pricing trend, primarily influenced by several key factors. A surplus in supply, coupled with subdued demand from critical downstream industries such as construction, packaging, and automotive, applied significant downward pressure on prices. This overabundance of inventory, driven by a well-maintained production rate amid adequate feedstock availability, led to aggressive price competition among suppliers. Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices further exacerbated market instability, influencing feedstock Ethylene costs and consequently suppressing LLDPE prices. In Brazil, which saw the most substantial price shifts, the overall market demonstrated a consistent bearish trend. The onset of the summer construction season failed to bolster demand as anticipated. Instead, high inventory levels and logistical challenges, including supply chain disruptions, contributed to the declining price environment. The quarter concluded with LLDPE Film grade priced at USD 1230/MT CFR Santos. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 was decidedly negative, dominated by a persistent decline driven by supply-demand imbalances, logistical inefficiencies, and external economic factors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American region experienced a significant increase in Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices. Several factors contributed to this upward trend. The market was influenced by strong demand from various industries, particularly the construction sector.
The positive business sentiment and increased construction activities led to a surge in overall economic activity, boosting confidence in future business prospects. Additionally, the escalating cost of feedstock Ethylene, driven by surging upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, put pressure on production costs and subsequently pushed LLDPE prices higher. The USA, in particular, witnessed the maximum price changes in the region. The overall trend in the country showed a consistent increase in LLDPE prices throughout the quarter.
There was a 90% increase in prices compared to the same quarter last year, indicating a significant upward trajectory. Moreover, there was a 4% price increase between the first and second half of the quarter, reflecting the continued positive momentum. The quarter-ending price for LLDPE in the USA increased by 2% for Film Butene-based FOB Texas. This price reflects the stable and increasing sentiment in the pricing environment. Overall, the Q1 2024 pricing environment for LLDPE in the North American region, specifically in the USA, has been positive, with consistent price increases driven by robust demand and rising production costs.
APAC
During Q1 2024, the pricing of Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) in the APAC region remained stable. Several factors influenced market prices, including consistent demand from downstream industries such as packaging and construction, stable feedstock Ethylene prices, and adequate supply levels. The market experienced a moderate outlook, with demand remaining relatively steady. In Japan, the LLDPE market saw the maximum price changes during this quarter. Overall, prices remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. There was a correlation between price changes and seasonality, as demand from downstream industries, particularly packaging and construction, remained relatively moderate. In comparison to the same quarter last year, prices decreased by 18%. However, when comparing the first and second half of the quarter, prices declined by 3%. Overall, the pricing environment for LLDPE in the APAC region during Q1 2024 can be characterized as stable, with minimal fluctuations and a moderate demand outlook. The stable feedstock prices and consistent demand from downstream industries contributed to price stability.
Europe
The Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in Europe during Q1 2024 has witnessed increasing prices and stabilized by quarter end, reflecting a positive pricing environment. Several factors have influenced market prices, including the supply-demand dynamics, economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these challenges, the LLDPE market in Europe has shown resilience. In the LLDPE prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with an overall upward trend. The price change from the previous quarter in 2024 was 7%, reflecting a continuing upward trajectory. Notably, there was an 8% price increase from the first half to the second half of the quarter. Overall, the LLDPE market in the UK has demonstrated stability and a positive pricing trend. Consequently, the prices of LLDPE in the UK for Film Butene-based FD Surrey surged by 2% and 5% in January and February and remained stable for March. These price fluctuations can be attributed to various factors, including supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in feedstock prices. Despite these challenges, LLDPE prices have remained resilient, reflecting the overall positive pricing environment in the European market. In conclusion, the LLDPE market in Europe has experienced increasing prices during Q1 2024. The overall trend has been positive, with significant price changes compared to the same quarter last year and the previous quarter.
MEA
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) pricing in the MEA region saw fluctuation in price trend as the prices surged initially, however, depreciated by quarter end. In Saudi Arabia, the largest market in the region, prices experienced significant changes. Overall, the quarter had a positive pricing environment with increasing prices. Several factors influenced market prices during this period. The strong demand from downstream industries, particularly the packaging and construction sectors, played a crucial role in driving up prices. Additionally, the limited availability of imported materials due to supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea further tightened the market, contributing to the price increase. The price of LLDPE in Saudi Arabia decreased by 3% compared to the same quarter last year. However, there was a 2% increase in prices from the previous quarter in 2024, indicating a positive price trend. Moreover, there was a 1% price increase between the first and second half of the quarter. The price of LLDPE in Saudi Arabia for Film grade FOB Al Jubail dropped by 1% in March as the demand eased by the quarter end and supplies remained sufficient. In conclusion, Q1 2024 witnessed a positive pricing environment for LLDPE in the MEA region, with prices increasing steadily. The strong demand, supply chain disruptions, and limited availability of imported materials were the key factors driving the price up.
South America
In the first quarter of 2024, the South American region saw a rise in Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices, influenced by several contributing factors. Strong demand from various sectors, notably construction, played a key role in driving this upward trend. Positive business sentiments and increased construction activities bolstered overall economic momentum, instilling confidence in future business prospects. Moreover, the escalating costs of Ethylene feedstock, propelled by surging upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, exerted pressure on production expenses, consequently pushing LLDPE prices upward. Brazil, in particular, experienced the most significant price fluctuations within the region, showing a consistent uptrend in LLDPE prices throughout the quarter. By the end of the quarter, the price for Film grade CFR Santos LLDPE in Brazil had risen by 2%, reflecting the stable and rising sentiment within the pricing dynamics. Overall, the pricing environment for LLDPE in the South American region during Q1 2024 was marked by positivity, characterized by consistent price hikes driven by robust demand and increasing production costs.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the last quarter of 2023, North American LLDPE prices experienced volatility, beginning with a surge in October but concluding with a depreciation by the quarter's end.
The quoted price for LLDPE Film Butene-based grade FOB Texas(USA) was USD 1103/MT by the conclusion of the quarter in December 2023. The initial price increase in October was driven by rising Ethylene prices and robust demand from the construction, packaging, and automotive sectors. However, November and December saw a decline in LLDPE prices in North America due to falling Naphtha and Crude oil prices, coupled with subdued global market demand. While domestic market demand remained steady, export demand from Asian traders decreased, although inquiries from Latin America and Europe persisted at reduced levels.
In November, export offers began to surface, prompting some producers to adjust their prices downward to align with the softer international sentiment influenced by declining Crude Oil prices. Additionally, supply disruptions were noted as low water levels in the Panama Canal imposed restrictions on the number of ships crossing.
APAC
In the final quarter of 2023, the Asia-Pacific region exhibited a varied trajectory, with countries such as China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand initially showing an inclination in October followed by a decline by the quarter's conclusion. In contrast, the Indian market followed an opposing trend, witnessing a rebound in prices by December. The market in India maintained a moderately bullish stance, while Singapore and South Korea faced bearish conditions due to sluggish domestic demand and lower prices of imported materials. Japan experienced significant changes in LLDPE prices primarily due to a tightening supply of grades resulting from refinery maintenance activities in the Middle East and reduced trade inflows, leading to price increases. Fluctuations in feedstock Ethylene costs also impacted the LLDPE prices. The market also underwent a slight operational adjustment characterized by a decrease in international Crude oil prices and diminishing support for the product on the cost side. Consequently, the quarter-ending price for LLDPE FOB Yokkaichi in Japan was USD 1101/MT.
Europe
Throughout Q4, the European LLDPE market exhibited a pessimistic demand situation, briefly showing an increase in October followed by a decline for the remainder of the quarter. The rise in October was observed in the European PE market, attributed to limited imports from Asia and the Middle East. Market sources suggest that European PE producers have been under substantial cost pressure for an extended period, coupled with weak demand fundamentals, impacting their profitability. As November and December unfolded, the European market witnessed a decline in prices, primarily driven by subdued demand in downstream packaging and construction industries. The construction sector in the Eurozone experienced an overall contraction, notably in France and Germany, with the latter witnessing its most significant output drop in over three and a half years. The housing sector remained the low-performing sub-sector for the fifteenth consecutive month in November, marked by decreasing new orders due to weak demand conditions, resulting in job cuts and a negative outlook for future output. Input costs saw an accelerated increase, prompting construction companies to implement cost-cutting measures. The quarter concluded with the price of LLDPE Film Butene-based FD Surrey in the UK at USD 1551/MT.
MEA
Middle Eastern countries observed fluctuations in the LLDPE market in the fourth quarter, characterized by an initial upswing followed by a downturn, ultimately stabilizing by the quarter's conclusion. The October price surge resulted from sustained demand in downstream sectors, specifically packaging and construction sectors, which countered the declining prices of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha this month. The Middle Eastern LLDPE market maintained a moderate outlook with a steady supply from both domestic and international sources. However, inflationary pressures impacted consumer sentiments, leading to a reduction in domestic market demand. As the quarter concluded, LLDPE prices experienced a slight decrease attributed to the alleviation of feedstock Ethylene and Crude oil costs, contributing to a reduction in production expenses. Further, the geopolitical tensions in the region and supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea have impacted the demand-supply situation resulting in reduced prices. Moreover, bearish demand sentiments from the Asian and European markets have directly impacted the downward trend of prices. Consequently, the quoted price for LLDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail at the end of the quarter was USD 894/MT.
South America
In Q4 of 2023, LLDPE prices in Brazil demonstrated a varied pattern, initially rising in October before experiencing a subsequent decline. The price for LLDPE Film grade CFR Santos concluded the quarter at USD 1184/MT. The upward movement in Brazilian LLDPE prices during October was prompted by heightened feedstock Ethylene costs and increased demand from downstream industries like packaging and automotive, impacting material pricing. Traders responded by securing LLDPE for short-term needs and selectively replenishing their inventories, while imported costs from the USA remained elevated. However, as the quarter neared its end, the LLDPE market witnessed a reversal in pricing trends, primarily due to subdued demand from downstream sectors in the region. This decrease was further influenced by a decline in feedstock Ethylene costs, reflecting the overall pessimistic market conditions during the same period. Further, reduced upstream Naphtha costs, stemming from the weakened Crude oil prices, alleviated cost pressures in LLDPE production. The affordability of imported materials from the USA also contributed to an overall reduction in costs within the domestic market. Furthermore, as 2023 concluded, Brazil's manufacturing industry continued to contract, with output and new orders experiencing a decline for the third consecutive month. This situation led to a reduction in input buying as companies prioritized utilization over adding to their inventories.
