For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in North America experienced a notable decline, primarily due to weakening demand from key industries such as packaging, construction, and automotive. The drop in demand, combined with lower feedstock Ethylene prices, suggested an oversupply in the market, which added further pressure to pricing dynamics. Producers faced difficulties in maintaining market balance as the excess supply and softer demand continued to persist through the quarter.
Logistical disruptions further complicated the situation in North America. The impact of hurricanes and a strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) at U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports led to delays and strain on port operations, exacerbating supply chain challenges. These disruptions not only delayed shipments but also added to the overall uncertainty in the market. As a result, businesses were forced to adjust their operations, contributing to the volatility in LLDPE pricing and market activity.
The U.S. Presidential Election introduced additional uncertainty to the market, leading to reduced investments and cautious inventory accumulation. With potential changes in policies and trade dynamics, including the possibility of tariff increases under the incoming administration, market participants remained hesitant. This political uncertainty, coupled with the overall weaker demand, resulted in a broader market slowdown. By December, LLDPE Film Butene-based grade FOB Texas prices had dropped to USD 1060/MT, reflecting the significant price adjustments faced by the North American LLDPE sector.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the APAC region experienced fluctuating trends, with prices rising initially before declining toward the end of the quarter. Early in the quarter, elevated buying interest and higher offers for November-December shipments from overseas sellers drove prices upward. However, the growing gap between buyers' bids and sellers' offers hindered transaction volumes, limiting market activity. Supply chain disruptions played a significant role, as Typhoon Kong-Rey caused severe congestion and delays at key Asian ports such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Kaohsiung, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances. Rising freight rates further pressured market dynamics, especially as carriers imposed blank sailings ahead of the Chinese New Year, leading to constrained shipping capacity. By December, prices began to decline, driven by eased demand from downstream sectors, such as packaging and automotive, amid year-end destocking activities. Manufacturing growth slowed, with reduced export orders and weaker employment levels reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Japan witnessed the steepest price corrections, with LLDPE prices falling to USD 1051/MT FOB Yokkaichi by the quarter’s end. These developments highlight the combined impact of logistical challenges, fluctuating demand, and macroeconomic pressures on the regional LLDPE market.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in Europe experienced a gradual decline, largely due to decreasing feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha costs, coupled with subdued demand from key sectors such as packaging, construction, and automotive. Economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions led to cautious purchasing behavior, with buyers delaying commitments in anticipation of further price drops. This hesitancy, alongside high inventory levels, contributed to oversupply challenges as sellers worked to clear stocks. Reduced production costs provided limited relief, as weak demand overshadowed any potential stabilization. The market also faced pressure from reduced Asia-Europe ocean freight rates, which were influenced by diminished shipping activity following the peak season. This decline dampened import demand and added downward momentum to LLDPE prices. Seasonal factors, including the typical year-end holiday slowdown, further suppressed consumption across downstream industries. Low housing activity in the Eurozone persisted, with minimal recovery in residential construction, adversely affecting LLDPE applications in the construction sector. The UK market experienced notable fluctuations, with LLDPE Film Butene-based grade FD Surrey recorded at USD 1528/MT by December. Market sentiment remained fragile as the quarter concluded, shaped by ongoing geopolitical challenges and a milder-than-usual winter, which reduced energy demand and contributed to the overall market downturn.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the MEA region exhibited mixed trends, initially supported by stable pricing due to rising crude oil costs and geopolitical tensions, including disruptions in key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. However, as the quarter advanced, prices softened, driven by declining feedstock Ethylene costs and moderate demand from key downstream sectors such as packaging and construction. While domestic and Asian export markets provided consistent demand, it was insufficient to spark a robust recovery, with economic challenges and regional instability further dampening market sentiment. Competitive offers from U.S. suppliers added additional pressure, limiting the MEA market's ability to capitalize on its export potential. In Saudi Arabia, lengthened supplies and reduced production costs, supported by softer Ethylene prices, temporarily stabilized prices but could not offset the broader bearish market trends. By the year’s end, seasonal destocking and cautious purchasing behavior among buyers, coupled with weak overseas demand, kept the market subdued. LLDPE prices in Saudi Arabia mirrored the regional trajectory, with LLDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail quoted at USD 955/MT by December, reflecting the persistent challenges of oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties, and muted demand across the MEA region.
South America
In Q4 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in South America experienced a significant downturn, primarily driven by declining demand from key industries such as packaging, construction, and automotive. The availability of cheaper imported materials, especially from North America, combined with ample regional supply, pressured traders to reduce prices to maintain competitiveness. Brazil was particularly impacted, with moderate demand failing to stimulate market recovery. Logistical challenges intensified following the October 22 strike of approximately 60,000 Brazilian port workers, which disrupted vessel operations and reduced port productivity, worsening already fragile market conditions. This strike compounded the cautious sentiment, as weak consumption hindered any meaningful growth in demand throughout November. By December, year-end destocking further limited activity, while slow recoveries in the construction and automotive sectors restrained hopes for a more pronounced rebound. LLDPE Film Grade CFR Santos prices in Brazil were recorded at USD 1150/MT by the end of the quarter, reflecting the persistent challenges of oversupply, logistical disruptions, and subdued demand that continued to weigh on the South American LLDPE market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in North America displayed a mixed trend, with prices initially rising in July before declining for the rest of the quarter. Compared to the same period last year, the market saw an overall decrease, primarily due to moderate to low demand from key industries such as construction, automotive, and packaging.
Supply constraints, caused by production disruptions and adverse weather events, including hurricanes, further strained logistics and operations, contributing to price fluctuations. Additionally, variations in feedstock Ethylene prices, along with changes in upstream Naphtha and Crude oil costs, had a notable impact on the market.
The USA experienced the most significant price fluctuations, driven by weakened demand, stable supply levels, competitive pricing from other regions, and lower costs of imported materials. As a result, LLDPE Film Butene-based grade FOB Texas prices fell by 0.8% in September compared to the previous month. This trend underscored a stable to negative pricing environment, highlighting the intricate balance of supply and demand factors shaping the LLDPE market in the region during Q3 2024.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the APAC region saw a decline in prices, driven by several key factors. Weaker demand, particularly in the construction, automotive, and packaging sectors, was a primary contributor to this downward trend. Heavy rainfall in major markets disrupted construction activities, leading to decreased demand for construction materials. The off-season also further suppressed demand, causing lower operating rates in downstream industries. The drop in feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuations in Crude oil costs also played a role in reducing LLDPE prices, impacting the market throughout the quarter. Typhoon Yagi additionally caused significant disruptions across Asia, particularly in southern China and Vietnam, worsening logistical issues. The super typhoon brought destruction to northern Vietnam and heavy rains to southern China, causing delays in ocean logistics from Haiphong, vessel hold-ups, and container terminal closures in Hong Kong. Severe weather intensified congestion at East Asian ports, leading to longer waiting times at key Chinese ports like Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Yantian due to vessel bunching, further straining supply chains. In Japan, the LLDPE market faced notable price adjustments, with FOB Yokkaichi prices dropping by 4% in August and another 0.4% in September, reflecting the ongoing price declines and stable yet sluggish market conditions.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in Europe experienced a period of increasing prices, with significant factors driving this trend. The market was influenced by rising costs of feedstock Ethylene, and upstream Naphtha leading to heightened cost pressures on the product. Further, the fluctuations in the Crude oil prices influenced the market dynamics. Supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions in the region and port congestions have led to limited availability of LLDPE grades further contributing to the price surge. Furthermore, LLDPE supply remained tight, worsened by a sharp decline in the manufacturing sector, which saw significant drops in new orders, purchasing activity, and employment during September. The UK, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices rose illustrating a consistent upward trajectory. Thus, the price of LLDPE Film Butene-based FD Surrey (UK) surged by a 4.5% rise in August followed by a marginal rise of 0.2% in September, showcasing a stable and positive pricing environment in this quarter.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the MEA region exhibited a mixed pattern, with prices initially rising before declining sharply for the remainder of the quarter. This downward trend was primarily driven by weak demand from downstream sectors, particularly packaging, automotive, and construction. The sluggish demand was further impacted by a bearish global economic outlook, leading to cautious trading behavior and lower buying interest. Additionally, geopolitical tensions created market uncertainty, affecting both buyers and suppliers. The downward price trend was also influenced by the declining feedstock Ethylene prices and fluctuating Crude oil costs. Furthermore, abundant product availability amid reduced demand levels added to the negative market sentiment. In Saudi Arabia, prices fluctuated significantly, showing a sharp decline compared to the same period last year. The latter part of the quarter saw a more pronounced drop, with LLDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail (Saudi Arabia) prices falling by 3% in August, followed by a further 1.6% decrease in September, highlighting the overall negative pricing environment in the region.
South America
In Q3 2024, the South American Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market displayed a mixed pattern, with prices rising by 3.9% in July before entering a downward trend for the remainder of the quarter, particularly in Brazil. Several factors drove this trend. The global decline in costs for imported materials allowed local prices to decrease as ample domestic supply met market demand. This was further influenced by subdued international buyer activity, leading to cautious purchasing behaviors and a preference for more competitively priced resins from other regions. In Brazil, the market faced obstacles like port congestion, disruptions from the hurricane season, and wildfires, all of which impacted supply and pricing dynamics. Weather-related challenges also led to logistical and production issues, further affecting prices across the region. Brazil saw the most pronounced price changes, with a consistent decline throughout the quarter due to weak demand and abundant supply. Compared to the same period last year and the previous quarter, prices continued to decrease, reflecting a bearish market sentiment. Specifically, LLDPE Film grade CR Santos (Brazil) prices dropped by 1.8% in August and 0.8% in September 2024, illustrating the negative pricing environment throughout Q3 2024.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in North America experienced a notable downward pricing trend, primarily influenced by several key factors. A surplus in supply coupled with subdued demand from critical downstream industries such as construction, packaging, and automotive applied significant downward pressure on prices. This overabundance of inventory, driven by a well-maintained production rate amid adequate feedstock availability, led to aggressive price competition among suppliers.
Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices further exacerbated market instability, influencing feedstock Ethylene costs and consequently suppressing LLDPE prices.
Focusing on the USA, which saw the most substantial price shifts, the overall market demonstrated a consistent bearish trend. Seasonality played a role, with the onset of the summer construction season failing to bolster demand as anticipated. Instead, high inventory levels and logistical challenges, including supply chain disruptions, contributed to the declining price environment.
The quarter concluded with LLDPE Film Butene-based grade priced at USD 1138/MT FOB Texas. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 was decidedly negative, dominated by a persistent decline driven by supply-demand imbalances, logistical inefficiencies, and external economic factors.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) pricing in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region exhibited a trend of rising prices. This increase was predominantly driven by several critical factors, including elevated upstream crude oil prices and escalating freight rates, despite stable feedstock Ethylene prices. Supply constraints due to ongoing plant maintenance and logistical challenges, such as container shortages and vessel booking difficulties, further exacerbated cost pressures. Additionally, energy costs remained high, contributing to the overall upward pricing momentum. These elements collectively created a challenging market environment, impacting both supply and delivery schedules. Focusing on Japan, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the overall trend reflected an increasing sentiment. Seasonality played a role, with demand from the downstream construction and automotive sectors bolstering prices. The latest quarter-ending price for LLDPE in Japan stood at USD 1103/MT FOB Yokkaichi, underscoring the trend of rising prices amid stable yet pressured market conditions. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 for LLDPE in the APAC region, particularly in Japan, has been characterized by an increasing trend, reflecting the complex interplay of supply constraints, logistical challenges, and sustained demand from key industries. Despite some historical declines, the latter part of the quarter demonstrated an upward price trajectory, indicating a cautiously positive market outlook.
Europe
Q2 2024 has been a challenging period for Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) in the European region, characterized by a consistent downward pressure on prices. The market faced a confluence of factors that led to price depreciation. Subdued demand from downstream industries, such as construction and automotive, played a critical role in the overall price decline. This lackluster demand was further compounded by high inventory levels, resulting in an oversupply situation despite periodic disruptions in logistical channels, such as those stemming from severe weather events in Germany. Additionally, competitive pressures from increased global exports, particularly from the USA and the Middle East, exacerbated the supply glut, while economic uncertainties and rising inflation in the Eurozone curbed consumer confidence and spending. Germany, experiencing the most significant price fluctuations, exemplified these dynamics. The overall trend for LLDPE in Germany during Q2 2024 has been predominantly negative, with prices exhibiting a marked seasonality downturn. Correlating with broader economic indicators, the price of LLDPE Film FD Hamburg saw a year-over-year decrease of 4%, underscoring the market's struggle with persistent supply-demand imbalances. Compared to the previous quarter, prices dropped by 2%, reflecting the intensification of these adverse market conditions. The second half of the quarter witnessed a further 5% price decline compared to the first half, illustrating the cumulative effects of sustained oversupply and weak demand. The quarter-ending price for LLDPE Film FD Hamburg in Germany settled at USD 1485/MT, encapsulating the quarter's overall negative pricing environment. This consistent depreciation underscores a bearish market sentiment driven by external economic pressures and internal market dynamics, suggesting a period of recalibration may be necessary for future stability.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in the MEA region experienced a fluctuation in prices, as the prices remained stable in April, and declined in May, however, witnessed an escalation in June, by quarter end. Several factors contributed to this trend, including easing feedstock Ethylene prices and Crude oil price fluctuations. The construction and packaging sectors showed a decrease in demand for LLDPE, while geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, particularly in the Red Sea, affected supply. Freight rates saw a slight increase, but the impact on overall pricing remained contained due to balanced market conditions. In Saudi Arabia, the LLDPE market exhibited the most notable price changes within the MEA region. Though the trend remained declining, nevertheless, it rebounded in June amid an escalation in the freight rates amid Red Sea disturbances and port congestions in the Asian region. which has impacted the prices of the products globally and has led to a price surge. Thus, the price of LLDPE Film grade FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia reached USD 1020/MT by the quarter-end in June 2024.
South America
In Q2 2024, the Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in South America experienced a notable downward pricing trend, primarily influenced by several key factors. A surplus in supply, coupled with subdued demand from critical downstream industries such as construction, packaging, and automotive, applied significant downward pressure on prices. This overabundance of inventory, driven by a well-maintained production rate amid adequate feedstock availability, led to aggressive price competition among suppliers. Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices further exacerbated market instability, influencing feedstock Ethylene costs and consequently suppressing LLDPE prices. In Brazil, which saw the most substantial price shifts, the overall market demonstrated a consistent bearish trend. The onset of the summer construction season failed to bolster demand as anticipated. Instead, high inventory levels and logistical challenges, including supply chain disruptions, contributed to the declining price environment. The quarter concluded with LLDPE Film grade priced at USD 1230/MT CFR Santos. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 was decidedly negative, dominated by a persistent decline driven by supply-demand imbalances, logistical inefficiencies, and external economic factors.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American region experienced a significant increase in Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices. Several factors contributed to this upward trend. The market was influenced by strong demand from various industries, particularly the construction sector.
The positive business sentiment and increased construction activities led to a surge in overall economic activity, boosting confidence in future business prospects. Additionally, the escalating cost of feedstock Ethylene, driven by surging upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, put pressure on production costs and subsequently pushed LLDPE prices higher. The USA, in particular, witnessed the maximum price changes in the region. The overall trend in the country showed a consistent increase in LLDPE prices throughout the quarter.
There was a 90% increase in prices compared to the same quarter last year, indicating a significant upward trajectory. Moreover, there was a 4% price increase between the first and second half of the quarter, reflecting the continued positive momentum. The quarter-ending price for LLDPE in the USA increased by 2% for Film Butene-based FOB Texas. This price reflects the stable and increasing sentiment in the pricing environment. Overall, the Q1 2024 pricing environment for LLDPE in the North American region, specifically in the USA, has been positive, with consistent price increases driven by robust demand and rising production costs.
APAC
During Q1 2024, the pricing of Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) in the APAC region remained stable. Several factors influenced market prices, including consistent demand from downstream industries such as packaging and construction, stable feedstock Ethylene prices, and adequate supply levels. The market experienced a moderate outlook, with demand remaining relatively steady. In Japan, the LLDPE market saw the maximum price changes during this quarter. Overall, prices remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. There was a correlation between price changes and seasonality, as demand from downstream industries, particularly packaging and construction, remained relatively moderate. In comparison to the same quarter last year, prices decreased by 18%. However, when comparing the first and second half of the quarter, prices declined by 3%. Overall, the pricing environment for LLDPE in the APAC region during Q1 2024 can be characterized as stable, with minimal fluctuations and a moderate demand outlook. The stable feedstock prices and consistent demand from downstream industries contributed to price stability.
Europe
The Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) market in Europe during Q1 2024 has witnessed increasing prices and stabilized by quarter end, reflecting a positive pricing environment. Several factors have influenced market prices, including the supply-demand dynamics, economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these challenges, the LLDPE market in Europe has shown resilience. In the LLDPE prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with an overall upward trend. The price change from the previous quarter in 2024 was 7%, reflecting a continuing upward trajectory. Notably, there was an 8% price increase from the first half to the second half of the quarter. Overall, the LLDPE market in the UK has demonstrated stability and a positive pricing trend. Consequently, the prices of LLDPE in the UK for Film Butene-based FD Surrey surged by 2% and 5% in January and February and remained stable for March. These price fluctuations can be attributed to various factors, including supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in feedstock prices. Despite these challenges, LLDPE prices have remained resilient, reflecting the overall positive pricing environment in the European market. In conclusion, the LLDPE market in Europe has experienced increasing prices during Q1 2024. The overall trend has been positive, with significant price changes compared to the same quarter last year and the previous quarter.
MEA
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) pricing in the MEA region saw fluctuation in price trend as the prices surged initially, however, depreciated by quarter end. In Saudi Arabia, the largest market in the region, prices experienced significant changes. Overall, the quarter had a positive pricing environment with increasing prices. Several factors influenced market prices during this period. The strong demand from downstream industries, particularly the packaging and construction sectors, played a crucial role in driving up prices. Additionally, the limited availability of imported materials due to supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea further tightened the market, contributing to the price increase. The price of LLDPE in Saudi Arabia decreased by 3% compared to the same quarter last year. However, there was a 2% increase in prices from the previous quarter in 2024, indicating a positive price trend. Moreover, there was a 1% price increase between the first and second half of the quarter. The price of LLDPE in Saudi Arabia for Film grade FOB Al Jubail dropped by 1% in March as the demand eased by the quarter end and supplies remained sufficient. In conclusion, Q1 2024 witnessed a positive pricing environment for LLDPE in the MEA region, with prices increasing steadily. The strong demand, supply chain disruptions, and limited availability of imported materials were the key factors driving the price up.
South America
In the first quarter of 2024, the South American region saw a rise in Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices, influenced by several contributing factors. Strong demand from various sectors, notably construction, played a key role in driving this upward trend. Positive business sentiments and increased construction activities bolstered overall economic momentum, instilling confidence in future business prospects. Moreover, the escalating costs of Ethylene feedstock, propelled by surging upstream Naphtha and Crude oil prices, exerted pressure on production expenses, consequently pushing LLDPE prices upward. Brazil, in particular, experienced the most significant price fluctuations within the region, showing a consistent uptrend in LLDPE prices throughout the quarter. By the end of the quarter, the price for Film grade CFR Santos LLDPE in Brazil had risen by 2%, reflecting the stable and rising sentiment within the pricing dynamics. Overall, the pricing environment for LLDPE in the South American region during Q1 2024 was marked by positivity, characterized by consistent price hikes driven by robust demand and increasing production costs.
