For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in the US region experienced a period of decreasing prices, followed by an uptrend. During July 2024, the US LPG market experienced a significant price surge due to supply disruptions and increased production costs. Production setbacks, primarily stemming from high crude oil prices and the looming threat of hurricanes, curtailed LPG output.
A contributing factor to the tight supply situation was the decision by refineries, including LyondellBasell's Houston facility, to prioritize petrochemical production over LPG due to operational challenges. This strategic shift further reduced LPG output, intensifying the supply crunch.
However, the LPG market declined significantly during August 2024 due to a rebound in exports. The hurricane's impact led to a slowdown in production activities, but as operations resumed and maintenance activities concluded, export volumes surged in August 2024. Moreover, the decline in natural gas prices has reduced demand for LPG, as the two fuels are often used interchangeably. This decreased demand has further contributed to lower LPG prices during September 2024.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 has seen a challenging environment for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) pricing in the APAC region, characterized by increasing prices and market volatility. During July 2024, Saudi Aramco, the state oil producer, kept its official selling prices (OSPs) unchanged for LPG which affected the Asian market. However, the market has significantly rebounded during August 2024, despite supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. These factors have led to a complex pricing landscape, with prices experiencing significant fluctuations throughout the quarter. Likewise, a decrease in US butane exports further tightened the market dynamics. Production setbacks and the looming threat of hurricanes curtailed LPG supply from the USA to Asia. The Persian Gulf-Japan route, a vital corridor for LPG trade, has experienced a significant drop in shipments due to a lack of spot LPG bids from Middle Eastern producers, leading to increased prices during September 2024. The latest quarter-ending price for Butane CIF Shanghai in China stood at USD 655/MT, reflecting the bullish sentiment in the market.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in Europe experienced a period of significant price increases, with the Netherlands being at the forefront of these changes. Several factors have contributed to this price surge. European LPG supplies were facing a squeeze due to a decline in shipments from the US. More competitive prices were pulling US LPG cargoes eastward, leaving Europe with fewer options. Logistical issues at the US Gulf Coast including Hurricanes further dampen exports. As per EIA, the export of Propane and Propylene has declined from 1827 thousand per barrel to 1641 thousand per barrel during July 2024. While overall domestic demand was subdued due to the summer season, industrial consumption increased, adding pressure on prices during August 2024. Despite the rise in export levels of US LPG, production setbacks, curtailed LPG supply within Europe due to maintenance shutdowns which surged the price trend during September 2024. The upcoming switch to the higher Reid Vapor Pressure winter gasoline blending specification inclined the buying appetite for butane in recent weeks. Insufficient US volume supply combined with unfavorable arbitrage dynamics and higher US terminal costs created an artificial demand during this timeframe.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in the Middle East and Africa region experienced a period of increasing prices. Saudi Aramco, the state oil producer, kept its official selling prices (OSPs) for LPG unchanged for July. This stability set the tone for the market and contrasted with Algeria's Sonatrach, which raised prices due to rising demand in the Mediterranean. However, factors such as supply constraints, geopolitical tensions impacting shipping routes, and increased demand from the petrochemical industry contributed to the price hikes in August 2024. Moreover, seasonal demand for propane typically rises during the winter months due to its use for heating which increased prices during September 2024. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a 3% increase, highlighting a progressive escalation in prices. As the quarter concluded, the price stood at USD 595/MT of Butane Ex-Works Dhahran in Saudi Arabia, indicating a positive pricing environment characterized by steady growth and robust demand.
South America
Throughout Q3 2024, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in South America experienced a period of significant price increases, with Brazil being at the forefront of these changes. Several factors have contributed to this price surge. Supply disruptions, particularly due to severe flooding in key regions, have led to critical shortages and subsequent price hikes during July 2024. The closure of major distribution facilities has further exacerbated the situation, pushing prices upwards. Additionally, logistical challenges and reduced distribution capacity have played a significant role in shaping the pricing environment during August 2024. Brazil, in particular, has seen the maximum price changes within the region. The overall trend for LPG prices in Brazil has been on a steady incline, with a percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 stood at 11%, indicating a continuous upward trajectory. Moreover, the comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a 5% price increase. The quarter-ending price for Butane CFR Santos in Brazil reached USD 671/MT, reflecting a consistently increasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The North American region experienced a mixed price trend for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) in Q2 2024, where prices witnessed an uptrend in June followed by a significant downtrend as several significant factors influenced market prices during this quarter.
During April 2024, with the official switch to summer gasoline, the pressure on butane prices eased significantly along with the steadily rising LPG inventories. One of the main factors was the high inventory levels of propane and butane, which led to a supply glut in the market. This was due to increased production and a lack of buying interest in the civilian sector, as it was the off-season for LPG demand. Additionally, the ramp-up in production, particularly from propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units, contributed to the surplus of LPG during May 2024.
However, the LPG market in the USA experienced a sharp rebound in June 2024 due to a production disruption amidst the threat of hurricanes like Beryl's forced production cuts, further limiting supply. The anticipation of Hurricane Beryl hitting the Gulf of Mexico created additional anxieties. Market participants feared the storm would disrupt transportation and drive up freight costs, making it even harder to get LPG to market as the quarter-ending price for Butane FD Texas in the USA was USD 7.1/MMBTU.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the APAC region's Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market experienced a notable decline in prices, driven primarily by an oversupply of LPG and subdued demand from downstream industries. A key factor contributing to this price drop was the increase in production from major exporters, including the Middle East and the United States, which flooded the market with excess supply during April 2024. Additionally, the transition from winter to summer reduced the need for LPG as a heating source, further exacerbating the supply glut. Economic conditions in various countries also played a role, as businesses operated cautiously due to geopolitical uncertainties and declining crude oil prices, which lowered LPG production costs during May 2024. Focusing on China, the country saw the most significant price changes within the APAC region. The overall trend showcased a steady decline in LPG prices throughout the quarter, primarily due to a combination of seasonal factors and changes in industrial demand. Notably, there was a 17% drop in prices compared to the same quarter last year and a 16% decrease from the previous quarter of 2024.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in Europe experienced a consistent upward pricing trend. Several key factors influenced this increase. The primary drivers were logistical bottlenecks and unexpected export opportunities, which created supply constraints during June 2024. Additionally, global market dynamics, such as the diversion of large LPG cargoes towards Asia due to robust demand from Chinese propane dehydrogenation plants, tightened regional supplies. A notable decline in crude oil prices during May 2024, a crucial feedstock for LPG production, mitigated production costs, but this was outweighed by the substantial supply pressure. While, seasonality played a role, with the transition from winter to summer resulting in decreased demand for heating. However, disruptions along vital waterways, like the Rhine River, exacerbated the supply tightness during June which offset the low demand and hence resulted in a significant uptrend. Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the overall trend displayed a steady increase. The percentage change from the same quarter last year was 6%, reflecting a substantial rise. Concluding the quarter, the price of LPG in Germany stood at USD 1081/MT (Euro/1000 ltr) FD-Hamburg.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in the MEA region has experienced a trend of declining prices primarily driven by ample supply and subdued demand. Several pivotal factors have influenced this downward trajectory. The seasonal transition from winter to summer has diminished the demand for LPG, particularly for heating purposes, further contributing to the price decline during May 2024. Additionally, a shift in the blending sector's interest toward other fuels has lowered butane's market value. Furthermore, fluctuations in crude oil prices have impacted production costs, adding to the bearish market sentiment. While Propane prices remained steady in Saudi Arabia, Butane prices witnessed a decline during June 2024 due to an oversupply situation, exacerbated by increased LPG production and exports from the United States, has flooded the market with more butane and propane than needed, causing a price drop during June 2024. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, which has seen the most significant price changes, the overall trend has been decidedly negative. The seasonality effect is evident as the warmer weather reduced heating demand, and petrochemical industries showed less interest in propane. From the previous quarter in 2024, there was a 7% decrease, reflecting a consistent downtrend.
South America
The second quarter of 2024 for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) in the South American region has been characterized by an environment of escalating prices. Various factors have contributed to this surge in market prices, including limited supply, high demand, geopolitical tensions in major LPG-producing regions, and escalating freight rates. These factors have created a challenging scenario, leading to a steady increase in prices on a monthly basis. Additionally, global trends of declining prices have not impacted the region as significantly as expected, with Brazil, in particular, experiencing the maximum price changes. Brazil, as a key player in the South America LPG market, has seen significant fluctuations in prices throughout the quarter. Floods in Southern Brazil, particularly Rio Grande do Sul, significantly disrupted LPG supply and distribution. Torrential rains in southern Brazil, particularly Rio Grande do Sul, hampered LPG distribution. This key region saw a 7-10% decrease in LPG distribution within May 2024. Copa Energia, a major distributor responsible for 30% of the state's LPG distribution, had to shut down its Canoas city unit due to the rain. According to Alexandre Silveira, minister of mines and energy, the region was severely damaged by torrential rains that began at the end of April, severely disrupting flows, and leaving the LPG market in the southern state working at roughly 90 percent capacity in late May.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has seen bullish fluctuations in Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices in the North American region when compared with the previous quarter. Several factors have influenced market prices, including rising crude oil prices, strong demand, declining stock levels, and logistical issues. These factors have had a particularly pronounced impact on LPG prices in the USA.
In the USA, LPG prices experienced a remarkable surge in January. This was primarily driven by declining stock levels and accelerating freight charges. Propane inventories dropped to their lowest level since early to mid-November, leading to a 12th consecutive week of inventory decreases. Additionally, logistical issues, such as temporary closures of the Port of Houston, resulted in delivery backlogs and further exacerbated the price increase. Furthermore, international demand for propane surged, outpacing global supply. Increased consumption in Asia and disruptions in major producing regions put further pressure on US propane prices.
However, During March, the LPG prices slumped in the USA primarily influenced by increasing stock levels and easing freight charges. The US LPG market defied the global trend in March 2024, experiencing a significant price decrease despite Saudi Aramco, the world's largest supplier, maintaining its Official Selling Prices unchanged during this timeframe.
APAC
The Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in the APAC region during Q1 2024 has experienced bearish price trend influencing market dynamics when compared with the previous quarter. The prices of LPG in China have seen the maximum price changes during this period. The market initially witnessed an increase in prices driven by rising contract prices and increased demand during the Spring Festival. The logistic issues, including port congestion and shipping restrictions, have also affected the market, leading to temporary slowdowns in supply. The market saw active restocking activities during the Spring Festival, resulting in an uptrend. However, the increasing domestic supply and weakening fundamentals ultimately restricted significant price increases. The market sentiment was also affected by a downward trend in crude oil prices, which negatively impacted LPG pricing. In terms of demand, the LPG market in China experienced moderate to low demand during this quarter. The sluggish downstream market and low entry enthusiasm dampened the demand for LPG. Furthermore, lower enthusiasm from consumer sectors contributed to a loose supply situation during March 2024.
Europe
The Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in Europe during Q1 2024 experienced a mixed market sentiment due to global shipping rates and supply chain disruptions. The prices of LPG in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and Belgium all increased during early 2024. The increased spending by consumers, coupled with limited supply, created a perfect storm for price hikes. Inflation pushing up other energy sources like gasoline in Europe has also led consumers to turn to LPG as a cheaper option, further increasing demand during January 2024. The supply of LPG remained moderate to low, with the US becoming a major propane supplier to East Asia, Latin America, and Europe. However, the LPG market in Europe including Belgium significantly dropped during February on the back of low demand and low freight charges. Moreover, the LPG market boasts a healthy supply due to weak demand from downstream sectors including petrochemicals which has lessened the pressure on available resources during March which led to a decent decline in the LPG prices.
MEA
The Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in the MEA region experienced an overall increasing trend in prices during the first quarter of 2024. Several factors influenced market prices during this period. The ongoing geopolitical tensions, logistic challenges, and supply disruptions in the region played a significant role in driving prices higher. Additionally, the rise in crude oil prices and increased demand from the petrochemical industry contributed to the upward price trend. In Saudi Arabia, the largest player in the LPG market, significant price changes were observed. The prices of LPG in Saudi Arabia increased by 3% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. The first half of the quarter saw a slight increase in prices, followed by a stable price trend in the second half. The quarter-ending price for Butane Ex-Works Dhahran in Saudi Arabia was USD 640/MT, reflecting the stability and positive sentiment in the pricing environment. Overall, the LPG pricing in Saudi Arabia remained stable and consistent throughout March 2024.
South America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in South America experienced a remarkable uptrend on the back of high domestic demand along with the tight supply from the US market. According to production, inventory, and export data released by the US Energy Information Administration on January 31 stated that the US propane inventories fell for the eleventh straight week, by about 5.3 million barrels. In a petition to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Enterprise Products Partners said that its first 750,000 mt/year propane dehydrogenation unit produced a process flare. This has exacerbated the problem, and LPG prices in the US market have risen, resulting in expensive imports from the USA to Brazil. While inland propane demand was high in March, there were early signs of pre-Easter buying activity, which further limited supplies. Simultaneously, US LPG exports to Brazil fell 12% from the same period last year, potentially reducing Brazil's supply alternatives during March, which resulted in a bullish trend.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market experienced mixed sentiments that influenced prices. LPG prices in October and November witnessed a downtrend while the prices rebounded during December.
This decline was attributed to be subdued from the European nations; however, firm demand was observed from the Asian market. The supply of LPG has been sufficient to meet the market demand as the stockpiles have led the traders to reduce the costs amid fluctuating Crude oil prices. US Mont Belvieu Propane prices have experienced a decline, influenced by the country's oversupply situation, which has been heightened by increased challenges stemming from restrictions in the Panama Canal.
Focusing on the USA, the price of LPG saw an upward trajectory during December with Butane (USD/MMBTU) FD Texas reaching USD 6.4/MT at the end of the quarter. The increasing demand from both the domestic and overseas markets, particularly in Asia, played a significant role in driving up prices. Additionally, the restrictions and challenges faced in the Panama Canal disrupted the usual trading patterns and led to higher shipping costs, further impacting prices during December.
APAC
The current quarter of 2023 (Q4) for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) in China witnessed steady inclination when compared with the previous quarter. However, October and November witnessed a steady incline while December remained majorly stable.
October 2023 saw an upward trend in the LPG market in China, mainly due to higher imports of LPG prices from Middle Eastern countries as a result of announcements from Saudi Arabia's Aramco and Algeria's Sonatrach to increase the official selling prices (OSPs) for LPG in October by 4–10% over the previous month.
Early in November, the Shandong Propane market witnessed low on-site inventory, facilitating smooth sales. Furthermore, the northern region experienced a surge in civilian demand prompted by the onset of winter, contributing to a steady rise in demand that supported the market. Simultaneously, chemical demand for Propane remained consistent, maintaining a balanced market supply and demand.
However, December saw no change in the price of LPG in China following the announcement by major stakeholders of steady prices for the commodity. The decision by Saudi Aramco to keep its Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at the same level as the previous month was a rare instance of stability in December to settle at USD 806/MT Propane CIF Shanghai.
Europe
The Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in Europe had a challenging quarter in Q4 of 2023, with several factors impacting prices. Firstly, there was a moderate supply of LPG in the domestic market, while downstream sectors experienced a relatively high consumption rate. Additionally, Europe was on the brink of recession, contending with a swift tightening of monetary policy and formidable economic challenges. The primary issue of stagnant or declining real wages throughout the continent has maintained marginally stable prices of LPG during October.
However, November witnessed a marginal surge due to increased demand, coupled with stable supply. Additionally, the decision by Sonatrach and Aramco to increase prices had a significant impact on LPG prices in the region. Furthermore, LPG experienced a surge in civilian demand prompted by the onset of winter, contributing to a steady rise in demand that supported the market.
While US LPG exports to Europe remain steady, a drought in the Panama Canal has thrown a wrench in the delivery pipeline for Asian markets. This has made Europe a more attractive alternative destination for US exporters, potentially leading to increased competition and higher prices for European consumers, including Belgium during December to settle at Butane CFR Antwerp in Belgium for the quarter was USD 599/MT.
MEA
The current quarter of 2023 (Q4) for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region was characterized by moderate supply and demand. However, October witnessed a steady incline while December remained majorly stable.
The price hike was attributed to the announcements made by Algeria's Sonatrach and Saudi Arabia's Aramco to raise the official selling prices (OSPs) for LPG in October by 4-10% compared to the previous month. This adjustment was a response to the rising oil prices and a limited global supply of LPG, as reported by market participants. Further, the strong demand from the Asian market abroad has played a significant role in influencing LPG prices.
However, The LPG prices in Saudi Arabia remained steady during December as Saudi Arabia’s Aramco has decided to keep the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) unchanged in December 2023. Meanwhile, Algeria’s Sonatrach has decreased the OSP for Propane by 7% this month. These price adjustments were made due to the decline in demand in the global market. Further, the continuous decline in Crude oil prices has impacted market dynamics to settle at 620 USD/tonne Butane Ex-Works Dhahran, Saudi Arabia in December 2023.
South America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market in South America experienced mixed market sentiments that influenced prices in the region. Firstly, the market witnessed a decline in demand from the international market, particularly from the US and European nations, due to economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures during October. This decrease in demand contributed to a bearish market situation.
Furthermore, the market in Brazil, specifically, saw a decline in LPG prices due to the decrease in upstream Crude oil prices and weakening demand. The cost of imported LPG from the US eased, resulting in a price decrease in the domestic market. Overall, the market trend in the region was bearish, with high supply and low demand.
However, during December, Brazilian households and businesses were grappled with a surge in LPG prices, ignited by the US Price Hike. As the world's largest LPG exporter, the US price increase ripples through the global market, directly impacting Brazil's import costs. This surge was fuelled by rising domestic demand and anxieties surrounding geopolitical instability to settle for Butane CFR Santos in Brazil at the end of the quarter at USD 382/MT.
