For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) C10 prices in the U.S. continued their downward trend, with a 9.9% decline in November, following a similar drop in October. The main drivers of this decline were persistent market softness, weak downstream demand, and falling ethylene prices, a key production cost.
Despite logistical disruptions, including the shutdown of Shell Chemical’s Deer Park facility and challenges at Gulf Coast and Canadian ports, the market remained oversupplied, limiting the impact of these disruptions on prices. The approach of the holiday season further dampened industrial activity, especially in the detergent and surfactant sectors, which showed weak demand and reduced production volumes.
The broader industrial slowdown, high financing costs, and cautious inventory management further dampened demand. High financing costs and cautious inventory management also contributed to the bearish market outlook, with no immediate recovery in sight. Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain subdued in Q1 2025, with weak demand and economic uncertainty continuing to weigh on LAO prices, although some post-holiday recovery is possible.
APAC
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) prices in India exhibited mixed trends, with a bullish start in October driven by geopolitical tensions and reduced production in Saudi Arabia, followed by a 4.9% decline in November due to oversupply and subdued demand. October saw a surge in prices as tightened supply and improved demand from construction, surfactants, and detergents supported market momentum. However, by November, the influx of low-priced imports from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, coupled with weak recovery in downstream sectors like polyolefins and linear alkyl benzene intermediates, led to downward price pressure. Domestic producers like Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) offered discounts to manage inventories, but excess global supply persisted, limiting price recovery. While the construction sector showed intermittent support with a modest rebound in October, broader economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties restrained sustained growth in consumption. Despite attempts to increase polyethylene prices, LAO demand remained weak in November and December, reflecting overall economic pressures. Looking ahead, market stabilization will depend on broader economic improvements and increased downstream activity.
Europe
In Q4 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) prices in Germany experienced a continuous decline due to weak global ethylene market conditions and subdued demand across key downstream sectors, particularly surfactants and detergents. The market faced supply-side challenges, including disruptions in U.S. exports and Middle Eastern production, but these were not sufficient to boost demand, which remained sluggish. Low-capacity utilization at production plants and logistical inefficiencies contributed to a bearish market outlook. Despite some supply chain disruptions, such as the INEOS Olefins unit shutdown, demand for LAO failed to rebound, reflecting broader economic uncertainty and reduced consumption across industries. The quarter closed with minimal price support, and producers were forced to lower quotations to manage excess inventory. Looking ahead to Q1 2025, the market is expected to remain weak, with any potential recovery hinging on improvements in global ethylene dynamics, downstream consumption, and the resolution of ongoing supply chain challenges. More so, market stabilization will depend on broader economic improvements and increased downstream activity.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region saw a notable rise in Linear Alpha Olefin prices, with the USA experiencing the most significant price shifts. Several factors contributed to this increase, including rising ethylene prices and maintenance shutdowns at major chemical plants due to hurricane season. Additionally, hurricanes caused disruptions to facilities such as Shell Chemical Company, Sasol Chemical Industries, and Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LP, which further strained supply chains.
In the USA, the pricing environment remained particularly strong throughout the quarter. Prices assessed for the month of September surged by 19% compared to the assessed price previous year. The prices surged by 16% throughout the quarter cumulatively. This bullish trend was largely influenced by the ongoing supply chain challenges and escalating ethylene costs.
By the end of the quarter, the price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FOB US Gulf reached USD 1190/MT. This reflects the sustained upward momentum in the market, driven primarily by supply chain disruptions and the rising cost of key raw materials like ethylene.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin market in the APAC region saw a substantial decline, with Japan experiencing the most significant price drops. The quarter was marked by a challenging pricing environment, driven by several critical factors. Supply disruptions, including maintenance shutdowns at key production facilities, led to supply tightening, which compounded the downward pressure on prices throughout the region. In addition to these supply issues, weakening demand for end-use products and a persistent oversupply situation further exacerbated the price decline. Seasonal factors played a prominent role, as prices in September 2024 registered a 17% drop compared to the same period in 2023. This price drop was largely driven by excess supply, declining polymer prices, easing ethylene costs, and weaker demand sentiment, which weighed heavily on the market. Over the course of the quarter, prices decreased by 5%, with the final price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FOB Osaka in Japan settling at USD 1,020/MT by the quarter's end. Overall, the APAC region, particularly Japan, faced a bearish pricing landscape, with negative sentiment prevailing due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and economic challenges
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European region experienced a bullish quarter for Linear Alpha Olefin prices, marked by significant fluctuations. Various factors influenced market prices, including a decrease in demand for homecare and personal care products, impacting the supply-demand dynamics. The pricing environment was further affected by lower production levels, particularly in key facilities such as those operated by Shell. Additionally, high freight charges and limited tanker slot availabilities added pressure on procurement activities. Germany, in particular, witnessed the most substantial price changes during the quarter. Overall trends indicated a negative correlation in price changes due to lowering of energy and feedstock, with prices of September 2024 falling 8% below the 2023’s September assessed price. However, a notable uptick of 9% was observed this quarter over previous quarter, showcasing some resilience in pricing. The quarter-ending price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 FD Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 1080/MT, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market. Disruptions and plant shutdowns further impacted the pricing landscape, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the region.
Middle East and Africa
In Q3 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin pricing in the MEA region witnessed a significant decline, with Saudi Arabia experiencing the most pronounced price changes. The quarter was characterized by a negative pricing environment, influenced by various factors. Supply disruptions, such as the PetroRabigh plant shutdown due to a cracker outage, contributed to supply constraints, impacting prices. Additionally, lower demand for end-use products, supply tightening further checked the declining prices. The correlation between price changes and seasonality was evident, with a notable 17% decline in prices assessed in September 2024 over September 2023. The drop was governed largely by oversupply and falling polymer prices, easing feedstocks like ethylene as well as weaker demand sentiment. The price comparison throughout the quarter revealed a 5% drop. This downward trend culminated in a final price of USD 930/MT for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia at the end of the quarter. Overall, the quarter reflected a challenging pricing landscape with a negative sentiment prevailing throughout.
Latin America
In Q3 2024, the South American region experienced a sharp increase in Linear Alpha Olefin prices. This surge was driven by several key factors, including supply disruptions caused by plant shutdowns, rising demand for downstream derivatives, and higher freight costs. The market saw bullish sentiment throughout the quarter, fueled by tightened supply conditions and strong demand dynamics. Brazil, in particular, experienced significant price shifts, with an 11% increase compared to the prices assessed in September 2024 over September 2023. The cumulative price movement this quarter witnessed a 10% price hike, reflecting the strong market momentum and growing demand. Despite challenges such as elevated freight charges and production constraints, the market remained resilient, and prices continued to rise steadily. By the end of the quarter, the price of Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend CFR Santos Port in Brazil reached USD 1090/MT. This upward trend highlights the competitiveness of the market, even amidst ongoing disruptions and economic fluctuations. The ability to maintain positive pricing momentum in such a volatile environment showcases the market's robustness.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) pricing in North America has experienced a pronounced upward trend, driven by multiple market dynamics. The ongoing increase in feedstock ethylene and ethane prices, coupled with high freight charges and lower slot availabilities on tankers, has significantly impacted the LAO market. Rising natural gas prices and a shrinking ethane premium further exacerbated the cost pressures. Additionally, supply constraints due to unplanned plant shutdowns, such as those at ExxonMobil's Baytown and Shell Chemicals' Deer Park facilities, have tightened the market, leading to elevated prices.
Focusing on the USA, the region has seen the most substantial price changes. Throughout the quarter, the USA has maintained a bullish market sentiment, influenced by strong domestic demand for detergents, surfactants, and lubricants. Seasonal factors, especially the summer procurement period, have further bolstered demand, while the anticipation of hurricane season added upward pressure on prices due to potential supply disruptions. The overall trend has been one of price convergence between domestic and export deliveries, reflecting intense competition from Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers.
Throughout the quarter, prices have increased by 7%, indicating a consistent upward trajectory. The overall price change from the previous quarter is recorded at 10%. This quarter-ending price of USD 1180/MT for LAO C16-18 Blend FOB US Gulf underscores the positive pricing environment, driven by strong demand, supply constraints, and strategic inventory builds. Thus, the pricing context for LAO in North America during Q2 2024 has been decidedly positive, marked by robust market fundamentals and external pressures.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) market in Europe experienced a pronounced downturn, influenced by several significant factors. The region saw a notable decline in LAO prices, driven by increased feedstock availability, lower electricity charges, and high inventory levels following substantial stockpiling in previous months. This period was marked by bearish sentiment as a result of softened demand, deteriorating economic conditions, and persistent industrial downturns. Additionally, high freight charges and port congestion compounded the pricing pressures, making imports more cumbersome and costly. Furthermore, manufacturers faced intensified competition from Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers, which exacerbated the overall price decline. Germany, in particular, witnessed the steepest price changes in the region. The decreasing trend in LAO prices was significantly correlated with seasonality and industrial activities. The second quarter saw a marked 20% decrease over the quarter. This trend was further exacerbated by several disruptions and plant shutdowns, including the notable stoppage at the INEOS site, which profoundly impacted supply chains and pricing dynamics. The overall pricing environment in Germany was decidedly negative, reflecting the cumulative impact of reduced demand, heightened competition, and logistical challenges. At the end of Q2 2024, the price of Linear Alpha Olefin C12-14 FD Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 1120/MT, underscoring a consistent downward trajectory. This quarter underscores a challenging landscape for LAO, marked by adverse market conditions and significant price erosion.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 has been particularly challenging for the Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) market in the APAC region, characterized by a consistent downward trend in pricing. A confluence of factors has contributed to this bearish market sentiment. Predominantly, weak demand from the lubrication industry, combined with stable yet insufficient demand from surfactants, has placed downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the downward revisions in upstream ethylene prices, driven by lower crude oil prices averaging $81.75/MT Brent basis, have further compounded the cost pressures. An oversupply situation has emerged as inventories remained high across the region, exacerbated by logistical delays and disruptions, including significant congestion at major ports like Malacca and Chinese ports. No major plant shutdowns were recorded during the quarter, indicating that the supply glut was not due to production but rather a mismatch between supply and demand dynamics. In Japan, the LAO market has experienced the most substantial price reductions. The overall trend demonstrates a significant decrease, heavily influenced by seasonal factors and a marked decline in industrial demand. The second quarter saw price drop of 19% throughout , culminating in a quarter-ending price of USD 1310/MT for the Linear Alpha Olefin C16-18 Blend FOB Osaka. This stark decline highlights a negative pricing environment, underpinned by sustained oversupply and inadequate demand recovery. The persistent bearish sentiment suggests that the market remains under considerable strain, with little relief anticipated in the immediate future.
Middle East and Africa
In the second quarter of 2024, the Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) market in the MEA region experienced a pronounced decline in prices. This downturn was largely driven by several interlinked factors. Firstly, the global increase in crude prices during March and April heightened feedstock costs, exerting substantial pressure on the downstream ethylene value chain, including Linear Alpha Olefin. Concurrently, geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions in the MEA region further aggravated the situation by causing significant delays and elevated freight charges, which dissuaded international buyers and contributed to bearish market sentiment. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, which observed the most marked price changes, the overall trend showcased a persistent decrease. Seasonal factors, such as the reduced production hours during the Hajj pilgrimage, compounded the bearish outlook. The correlation between heightened supply and dwindling demand resulted in a stark price reduction, evident from the 16% drop throughout the second quarter. Despite no major plant shutdowns during this period, the market faced operational challenges due to geopolitical instability and fluctuating crude outputs. By the end of the quarter, the price of Linear Alpha Olefin C16-18 Blend FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia had plummeted to USD 1280/MT, underlining a negative pricing environment exacerbated by oversupply and weak demand dynamics. This quarter's performance highlights a market grappling with high inventory levels and subdued global economic activity, leading to consistently declining prices.
Latin America
In Q2 2024, Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) pricing in Latin America has experienced a pronounced upward trend, driven by multiple market dynamics. The ongoing increase in feedstock ethylene and ethane prices, coupled with high freight charges and lower slot availabilities on tankers, has significantly impacted the LAO market. Rising natural gas prices and a shrinking ethane premium further exacerbated the cost pressures. US revised their prices upwards for hexene deliveries into Latin America as domestic cost have continued to remain higher than US supply cost. Focusing on Brazil, the region has seen the most substantial price changes. Throughout the quarter, Brazil’s markets have maintained a bullish market sentiment, influenced by strong domestic demand for detergents, surfactants, and lubricants. Seasonal factors, especially the pre- winter procurement period, have further bolstered demand, while the anticipation of hurricane season in the Northern American regions added upward pressure on prices due to potential supply disruptions. The overall trend has been one of price convergence between domestic and export deliveries, reflecting intense competition from Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers. Throughout the quarter, prices have increased by 7%, indicating a consistent upward trajectory. This quarter-ending price of USD 1130/MT for LAO C16-18 Blend FOB US Gulf underscores the positive pricing environment, driven by strong demand, supply constraints, and strategic inventory builds. Thus, the pricing context for LAO in North America during Q2 2024 has been decidedly positive, marked by robust market fundamentals and external pressures.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American market for Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) experienced a mixed pricing environment in the first quarter of 2024. Overall, prices remained bullish but with a slight downward trend early in the quarter. Several factors influenced market prices during this period. In the USA, which saw the maximum price changes, the LAO market experienced a bearish sentiment in the first half of the quarter. Prices for LAO C10 blend FOB US Gulf decreased by USD 50/MT, representing a significant decrease of 5.9% from the previous quarter. This downward trend can be attributed to cooling demand and falling feedstock prices. The manufacturing sector, a key consumer of LAO, remained subdued, leading to weakened demand. Additionally, competition from Middle Eastern and American suppliers further pressured prices in the region. Comparing to the same quarter last year, prices of LAO in the USA were significantly lower, recording a decrease of 19% from the previous fiscal year as downturns intensified previously. This decline can be attributed to the overall economic challenges faced by industry.
Looking at the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, prices moved upwards due to newer contracts for ethylene supply being sought with cost escalations observed over USD 200/MT to the market participants. However, it can be inferred that prices remained relatively stable during this period. The quarter-ending price for LAO C10 blend FOB US Gulf in the USA was recorded at USD 900/MT. This represents a slight decrease from the previous quarter but still reflects a stable recovering pricing environment.
In conclusion, the pricing environment for LAO in the North American market during the first quarter of 2024 was bullish, with prices experiencing a slight downward trend. Recovery in demand and falling feedstock prices were the main factors influencing market prices. However, prices remained relatively stable throughout the quarter.
Europe
The pricing environment for Linear Alpha Olefin in Europe during Q1 2024 has been largely negative, with prices experiencing bullish trend. This can be attributed to rising ethylene prices and easing of the downturns in European manufacturing. The market has been influenced by factors such stabilization and bottoming out of demand, including in the lubrication and surfactant sectors. Additionally, high interest rates and consumer prices have dampened consumer sentiment, resulting in lower demand for Linear Alpha Olefin in Europe.
Belgium has seen the maximum price changes during this period. The market in Belgium has been particularly bullish with producers observing easing of downturns due to newer supply contract of feedstock and raw materials with US and Middle Eastern suppliers. The Belgian consumer market, including the cosmetics sector, has also been impacted by high interest rates and consumer prices. The pricing trend in Belgium reflects a consistent bearish sentiment, with prices rose by approximately 5.7% compared to the previous quarter.
Overall, the pricing environment for Linear Alpha Olefin in Europe has been characterized by increasing downstream production and inventory building. The market has been influenced by factors such as supply chain disruptions, including strikes and adverse weather conditions. While there have been some signs of improving demand in certain sectors, the overall pricing trend remains positive. In conclusion, the latest quarter-ending price for Linear Alpha Olefin C10 Blend FD Antwerp in Belgium is USD 1340/MT. The pricing environment for Linear Alpha Olefin in Europe during Q1 2024 has been bullish, with prices experiencing a bullish trend due to moderate demand and cooling off high contract prices.
Asia Pacific
The first quarter of 2024 has seen mixed trends in the pricing of Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) in the APAC region. Overall, the market has experienced positive sentiment, with prices showing an upward trend. However, there have been fluctuations in prices due to various factors. In Japan, the price of LAO has seen significant changes during this quarter. The market has been influenced by factors such as supply shortages, high inventory requirements, and increased demand from the domestic market. The Lunar New Year festivities have also contributed to the rise in demand for LAO, particularly in the cosmetics and homecare products sectors. Additionally, freight charges and global inflation concerns have impacted prices.
In terms of overall trends, the APAC region has experienced a bullish market situation, with moderate to high demand for LAO. Supply has been moderate, with suppliers increasing their inventory volumes to meet the growing demand. However, supply has also been affected by shipping container shortages and disruptions in the Middle East. Looking at price changes, there has been a positive growth in prices compared to the same quarter last year. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 has also been positive. However, there have been fluctuations in prices within the quarter, with prices surging towards the end of the quarter due to supply chain challenges.
As of the quarter-end, the price of LAO in Japan was recorded at USD 1410/MT for the C10 Blend FOB Osaka. This indicates a stable pricing environment, albeit with some volatility throughout the quarter. Overall, the pricing environment for LAO in the APAC region during the first quarter of 2024 can be characterized as positive, with an upward trend in prices driven by factors such as increased domestic demand and supply chain challenges.
Middle East and Africa
The first quarter of 2024 has been a mixed period for Linear Alpha Olefin (LAO) pricing in the MEA region. Overall, market prices have been influenced by several significant factors. In particular, the ongoing export demand from Europe and Asia has contributed to positive sentiment and a surge in prices. Additionally, rising feedstock ethylene prices have impacted the downstream surfactant and detergent product chain, further driving up LAO prices. In Saudi Arabia, which has experienced the maximum price changes, the LAO market has seen a tightening supply situation. Suppliers have been increasing their inventory volumes to meet the continuous delivery schedule, but domestic stocks remain on the low side due to strong sales. The prices have almost recovered to the levels of the previous fiscal year, primarily due to suppliers restricting supply to maintain prices. However, the negative pressure from energy costs has partially offset the gains in downstream LAO polymer pricing.
Demand for LAO in the region has been moderate to high, driven by outstanding business orders and rising new order books. The Saudi construction market, in particular, has contributed to strong market activity for LAO. However, demand has also been impacted by factors such as cooling off export sentiment to China and Europe, as well as subdued manufacturing and high interest rates.
Overall, the pricing environment for LAO in the MEA region during the first quarter of 2024 has been bullish, with prices experiencing both upward and downward trends. However, the latest quarter-ending price for LAO C10 Blend FOB Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia is USD 1230/MT, reflecting a decrease of USD 20/MT or 2.2% compared to the previous quarter. In summary, the LAO pricing environment in the MEA region has been influenced by export demand, feedstock prices, supply tightness, and demand dynamics. The market has experienced both positive and negative trends, with Saudi Arabia being the most affected.
