For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
During Q3 of 2024, the Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) experienced a mixed trend. In the initial two months of Q3, the market witnessed a decline, primarily due to significant inventory accumulation. Despite expectations of increased sales to counteract production delays from the June cyberattack on CDK Global, inventory levels surged by an astonishing 49% to 2.9 million units. This oversupply, combined with a four-month low in inflation, created a challenging bearish environment. Moreover, economic uncertainty undermined investor confidence and diminished demand, forcing market participants to lower their ex-quotations and offer discounts to boost sales.
However, in the second half of Q3, the Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) experienced an upward trend. This improvement was largely due to heightened supplier activity as market sentiments towards the commodity began to stabilize. A key driver behind this shift was the rising cost of Butadiene, the main feedstock for Isoprene Rubber, which increased production costs. Consequently, the Isoprene Rubber market began to show a gradual upward trend, despite overall market conditions remaining somewhat fragile. Nonetheless, the Isoprene Rubber market in the US remained strong, benefiting from rising production costs and improved supplier activity. This combination of factors contributed to an upward trend in the market, highlighting the resilience of Isoprene Rubber amid fluctuating downstream demand.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 50 basis points, easing monetary policy for the first time in four years due to progress on the Fed’s dual mandate. The Fed’s decision to ease monetary policy is expected to support growth and stabilize a slowing labor market. Additionally, the quarter-on-quarter change of -4% highlighted the consistent pricing pattern.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the Isoprene Rubber market in the APAC region experienced a notable increase in prices, driven by various significant factors. The surge in pricing can be attributed to a rise in production costs, particularly the prices of the key feedstock, butadiene. The Isoprene Rubber MV 60-80 market in Japan faced challenges due to insufficient inventory levels in storage units, as suppliers have been actively maintaining and building up their stock. To address this situation, production rates of Isoprene Rubber have been ramped up, although this has come with increased production costs. As a result, ex-quotations for the commodity have been gradually increased to align with current market sentiments and reflect the rising costs. Additionally, there has been a slight uptick in employment in September, which indicates a marginal improvement in labor availability, while backlogs of work have shown a softer decline, suggesting that while production capacity was enhanced, the overall market still grapples with inefficiencies in meeting demand and managing inventory effectively. Compared to the previous quarter, prices rose by 4%, reflecting sustained growth.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Isoprene Rubber market in Europe witnessed a significant 8% increase compared to the previous quarter, marked by a consistent upward trend. This rise can be attributed to several key factors affecting market dynamics. Notably, rising production costs, particularly due to escalating prices of Butadiene—a vital feedstock—played a crucial role in driving prices higher. Additionally, robust demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors further supported the upward price movement, even amid fluctuations in the feedstock market. France, in particular, experienced notable price changes, with a 6% increase observed between the first and second halves of the quarter. This upward trajectory reflected a positive and stable pricing environment across the region. The overall pricing landscape during this quarter showcased a bullish sentiment, underpinned by strong demand and production cost pressures, highlighting the resilience of the Isoprene Rubber market in the face of rising input costs and evolving market conditions. Such trends suggest a promising outlook for future growth.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 presented a challenging landscape for Isoprene Rubber pricing in the North American region, characterized by a pronounced decline in market prices. Several critical factors contributed to this downward trajectory. A primary influence was the sluggish demand from key downstream sectors, particularly the automotive and tire industries, which saw a reduction in consumption rates. This was exacerbated by high inflation rates, creating economic uncertainty and dampening business confidence. Additionally, inventory levels remained high, leading suppliers to lower their prices to manage stockpiles. Despite stable feedstock costs, these market dynamics significantly impacted the overall pricing environment.
In the USA, the effects were most pronounced, with prices experiencing notable fluctuations. The quarter exhibited a general downward trend, driven primarily by seasonal factors and subdued market activity. This decline was more substantial when compared to the same quarter last year, recording a 6% decrease, and a 2% drop from the previous quarter in 2024. Seasonal adjustments further accentuated the price drop, with a 5% reduction observed between the first and second halves of the quarter.
The consistent decline throughout the quarter underscored a negative pricing environment, influenced by economic pressures and moderate demand levels. The overall sentiment in the market remained cautious, reflecting a concerted effort by suppliers to navigate a challenging economic landscape while maintaining an equilibrium between supply and demand.
APAC
The second quarter of 2024 observed a notable uptrend in Isoprene Rubber prices across the APAC region, driven primarily by heightened demand from the Automotive and Tire sectors. This increase in prices was further compounded by rising feedstock costs, particularly Butadiene, which significantly elevated production expenses. Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by severe weather conditions and logistical challenges, also played a critical role in tightening the market and driving prices upward. Focusing on Japan, the country experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations within the region. The Japanese market's dynamics were influenced by robust demand, both domestically and internationally, coupled with limited inventory levels that struggled to keep pace. Seasonality factors, such as increased automotive production cycles, contributed to the rising prices. The price correlation with Butadiene was evident, as the feedstock's cost surged, pushing Isoprene Rubber prices higher. Comparing the current quarter to the same period last year, there was a significant price decrease of 30%, indicating a volatile market environment in 2023. However, the quarter observed a modest 3% increase from the previous quarter, reflecting a gradual recovery and stabilization. Within the quarter, the first half showed a slight 1% price increase, aligning with steady demand and consistent market conditions. Overall, the quarter's pricing environment for Isoprene Rubber in Japan displayed a positive trend, driven by strong demand, increased production costs, and supply chain constraints, indicating an ongoing recovery and stabilization in the market. The consistent upward sentiment reflected the market's resilience and adaptability amidst fluctuating external factors.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Isoprene Rubber market in Europe experienced a notable upward trend in pricing, strongly influenced by several key factors. Foremost among these was the heightened demand from the downstream Automotive and Tire sectors, which witnessed a surge, thereby exerting upward pressure on prices. The existing inventory levels in storage units proved insufficient to cater to this increased demand, leading to bullish market sentiment. The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to lower deposit rates early in the quarter played a pivotal role, as it facilitated borrowing and investment in related industries, thereby indirectly boosting demand for Isoprene Rubber. Additionally, stable feedstock Butadiene prices ensured that production costs remained constant, allowing the price spread between Butadiene and Isoprene Rubber to broaden, further indicating a bullish market scenario. Focusing on Germany, the country witnessed the most significant price fluctuations within the region. Analyzing the overall trends, the second quarter of 2024 displayed a consistent increase in Isoprene Rubber prices, spurred by the same robust demand from the automotive sectors. This upward trajectory was also affected by seasonal factors, as the market typically saw a spike in activity and demand during this period. Compared to the same quarter last year, prices have decreased by 8%, reflecting a previous higher price base. However, when compared to the previous quarter of 2024, there was a substantial 7% increase, underscoring a recovery and growing demand. The first half of the quarter saw an initial phase of price stability, but a marked 3% increase was observed in the second half, aligning with the seasonal uptick in industrial activities. The quarter's overall sentiment was bullish, driven by sustained demand and economic factors favoring investment and production in the automotive and tire industries.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has witnessed a positive pricing environment for Isoprene Rubber in the North American region. Several factors have influenced market prices during this period. Firstly, there has been an increase in demand from the downstream automotive sector, which has driven up the consumption rate of Isoprene Rubber. This surge in demand has resulted in a tightening of supply and has contributed to the overall upward trend in prices.
Additionally, there has been a gradual improvement in the Isoprene Rubber market, with market participants experiencing higher operating costs. This increase in costs, coupled with a steady rise in energy prices, has further supported the upward price trend.
In the USA, the market has experienced the maximum price changes, with the first quarter of 2024 recording a substantial price increase of 45% compared to the previous quarter. Moreover, there has been a 1% price increase between the first and second halves of the quarter, highlighting the continued upward momentum. Overall, the pricing trend for Isoprene Rubber in the North American region in Q1 2024 has been characterized by increasing prices, driven by strong demand and higher operating costs.
APAC
In the initial months of 2024, the cost of Isoprene Rubber saw a notable decrease, influenced by several significant factors. Specifically, the Chinese market witnessed a downturn in Isoprene Rubber prices. This decline was primarily attributable to a subdued demand from the automotive sector, which coincided with an excess inventory situation. Additionally, trading activities between Japan and China experienced a slowdown during this period. Moreover, the celebration of the Lunar New Year in February contributed to a reduction in procurement activities within the Chinese market, as ample Isoprene Rubber supplies were already available. Consequently, market participants adjusted their pricing strategies by reducing their quoted prices, aiming to stimulate the utilization of existing inventory despite shrinking profit margins. Compared to the preceding quarter, the pricing trajectory of Isoprene Rubber exhibited a downward trend throughout the first quarter of 2024. In summary, the pricing dynamics observed in the APAC region during Q1 2024 were characterized by declining prices, influenced by subdued demand and cost-saving measures implemented by market players.
Europe
During Q1 2024, the Europe region experienced a significant increase in prices for Isoprene Rubber. Several factors contributed to this upward trend. The demand from the downstream automotive sector was robust, driving the need for an increased supply of Isoprene Rubber. This surge in demand was met with limited inventory levels, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and subsequent price hikes. Additionally, energy costs, particularly the prices of crude oil, rose during this period, further adding to the production expenses of Isoprene Rubber. Germany, in particular, witnessed the maximum price changes in Isoprene Rubber during this quarter. Overall, there was a positive pricing trend, with prices increasing by 27% compared to the same quarter last year. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices rose by 5%. There was also a slight increase of 1% in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. This stable and consistently increasing pricing environment reflects the strong demand from the automotive sector and the limited supply of Isoprene Rubber in the market.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Isoprene Rubber pricing for the North American region in Q4 of 2023 was affected by multiple factors. Firstly, the subdued consumption of Isoprene Rubber in the downstream automotive market led to a decline in demand and prices.
Secondly, the concerns over potential conflicts in Middle Eastern countries led to a notable uptick in crude oil prices, further intensifying the cost pressure on Isoprene Rubber production. Lastly, the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike against Detroit's major manufacturers has resulted in a drop in car sales and production, ultimately leading to a decline in demand for Isoprene Rubber.
The USA experienced a stable market situation with moderate supply and demand throughout the quarter. The manufacturing sector showed steady operating conditions and a significant backlog of demand in the automotive market boosted the demand for Isoprene Rubber, leading to a slight uptick in its market value. The latest price of Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) DEL Texas in the USA for Q4 of 2024 is USD 3620/MT.
APAC
Isoprene Rubber pricing in the APAC region during Q4 2023 experienced a bearish trend due to various factors. The market witnessed a high supply of Isoprene Rubber with limited demand from downstream automotive industries. The sluggish demand from the downstream sector led to a decline in the price trend of Isoprene Rubber. Additionally, high operating costs and fluctuations in feedstock Naptha prices affected the market. In Japan, the price trend of Isoprene Rubber showcased a decline of 16.73% from the previous quarter due to weak purchasing activities from the buyer's end and abundant product inventories due to which the production rate was reduced from the producer's end to avoid the accumulation of the product in the storage facilities. The quarter-ending on December 2023, the price of Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) FOB Tokyo in Japan is USD 3326/MT. Overall, the bearish market demand, limited utilization of inventories, and fluctuations in feedstock Naptha prices affected the price trend of Isoprene Rubber in the APAC region.
Europe
The Isoprene Rubber market in Europe during Q4 2023 saw a decline in prices, primarily due to weak market sentiments and lower demand. The destocking process also played a role as traders looked to clear out existing inventories for the upcoming fresh inventories in January 2024. Germany experienced the maximum changes in price during this quarter, with a -11% decline from the previous quarter and an -8% decline in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. The trend and seasonality of Isoprene Rubber prices remained steady, with a slight bearish market sentiment due to high supply. The correlation percentage of Isoprene Rubber prices in Germany during Q4 2023 was affected by limited product inventories and weak purchasing activities. A significant reason for the decline in Isoprene Rubber prices during this quarter was the high production rate, leading to sufficient supply in the regional market. No plant shutdowns were reported during this quarter. The latest price of Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) FD Hamburg in Germany for Q4 2023 is USD 1752/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The North American market witnessed mixed sentiments in the Isoprene Rubber pricing trend during quarter 3 of the year 2023. The prices showcased a notable surge in July, followed by a stable market trend, only to decline in the last month of the quarter. The US market price of Isoprene Rubber increased in July due to strong demand sentiments. In the US market, vehicle sales increased by over 20% in the month of June, while Western Europe sales also increased by around 19.6% in the same month, boosting the demand for Isoprene Rubber significantly. As a result, Isoprene Rubber's procurement increased during July. However, the Isoprene Rubber market in the USA remained stable during August due to a balance between supply and demand. This steadiness was mainly driven by positive developments in the global automotive sector. Notably, automobile sales saw a substantial double-digit increase in July compared to the previous year in the USA, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe. However, beneath this stable surface, there was a significant decrease in the costs of the raw materials used to produce Isoprene Rubber in the previous month. These price fluctuations continued into August, affecting the overall production costs of Isoprene Rubber. Despite the growth in various industries, the consistent changes in raw material prices offset any potential price shifts in Isoprene Rubber. Besides, the price of Isoprene Rubber encountered a significant decline in the US market during September despite the continuous expansion witnessed in the automotive sector. This downturn was predominantly influenced by a drop in the prices of its raw materials. Feedstock Isoprene prices notably decreased throughout the month. As a result, the production costs associated with Isoprene Rubber saw a considerable reduction, leading to a significant decrease in its market value.
APAC
In the first month of the third quarter of 2023, Isoprene Rubber prices in the Asia-Pacific region showed stability but exhibited a negative trend. Over the subsequent two months, prices continued to steadily decrease. During this same period, the Asian new vehicle market saw substantial growth, primarily driven by the recovery from the COVID-19 lockdowns that had started to ease in the latter part of the previous year. This recovery was aided by an improved supply of semiconductors, allowing car manufacturers to increase production and reduce their order backlogs. Despite strong demand from the automotive industry, Isoprene Rubber prices in the Asian market have consistently dropped. Several factors have contributed to this price decline, including a simultaneous decrease in the prices of essential raw materials, Isoprene, and increased competition in the market. These factors have significantly transformed the pricing dynamics in the Isoprene Rubber sector. The reduced cost of Isoprene has directly impacted manufacturing expenses, leading to a necessary reduction in the prices of the final products. Additionally, heightened competition has prompted manufacturers to strategically lower their prices to maintain their competitiveness in the industry.
Europe
The cost of Isoprene Rubber consistently decreased in the European market during the third quarter of 2023. The European Isoprene Rubber market experienced a decline primarily due to a significant downturn in the construction industry across the Eurozone, marking the most substantial drop of the year. This slowdown in construction was reflected in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Eurozone construction sector, which showed a notable decrease from 43.5 to 43.4 in August, indicating a significant reduction in industry activity. This decline in construction activity had a cascading effect, resulting in decreased demand for Isoprene Rubber in the European market and impacting the overall global demand for this product. Furthermore, despite a recent period of relatively stable prices for feedstock Isoprene in Europe during August and September, the ongoing downward price trend observed throughout July continued to have a substantial impact on the production costs associated with Isoprene Rubber, which eventually resulted in the reduced market value of Isoprene Rubber.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the second quarter of 2023, the North American market experienced a mixed market sentiments with Isoprene Rubber price dynamics. Isoprene rubber prices trended downward in April and May but rose significantly in the rest of the quarter. Prices of isoprene rubber continued to fall in the first two months as the US auto industry faced difficulties due to rising interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions. In addition, the continued decline in raw material isoprene prices also contributed to the slowdown in market development. However, Isoprene Rubber prices rose significantly in the last month of the quarter due to overwhelming market developments in the automotive sector. Vehicle sales in the US market rose by more than 20% in June, while sales in Western Europe rose by about 19.6%, boosting demand for Isoprene rubber significantly. As a result, the demand for Isoprene Rubber increased. The US manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 46.3 in June from 48.4 in May. Further declines in PMI were due to lower new orders for certain products, lower input costs and lower domestic industrial activity. This also contributed to price increases for some commodities.
APAC
The second quarter of 2023 saw a rollercoaster of dynamics in the Asia-Pacific Isoprene Rubber market. Isoprene rubber prices plunged in April but rebounded in the last two months of the quarter. April's price decline was due to a combination of factors, most notably overstock and increased market competitiveness. Increased production and supply of Isoprene Rubber caused excess inventories to pile up, creating an oversupply in the market. As a result, suppliers and manufacturers were forced to reduce inventories and lower prices to remain competitive. In addition, the presence of competitors vying for market share increased competition, necessitating price adjustments to attract customers. This decline in Isoprene Rubber prices in Asia reflected the challenges faced by the industry in balancing supply and demand and the need for market participants to adapt to changing market conditions. However, the price increases in May and June amid strong demand from downstream industries. The price of Isoprene, the main raw material, has stabilized or fallen, keeping input costs low, while the resurgence of downstream consumption has increased the market value of Isoprene Rubber. Strong development of the automotive sector in other Asian countries has contributed to a significant increase in demand. Declining industrial activity also contributed to the price increase.
Europe
European countries witnessed consistent incline in the Isoprene Rubber pricing trend during the second quarter of the year. Throughout Q2 of 2023, European Isoprene Rubber prices experienced sustained growth as new auto purchases continuously grew. The German auto industry rebounded strongly in May, with sales up 19.2% year-on-year. With the increase in German automotive industry sales and industrial production, the consumption of Isoprene Rubber improved, and its market value increased significantly. According to the Federal Transport Administration (KBA), the number of new passenger car registrations increased by 24.8% year-on-year. As the German automotive industry performed well in the market due to pent-up demand, Isoprene Rubber consumption increased, which ultimately led to increased demand. Moreover, the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) of Germany dropped to 40.6 in June from 43.2 in May, which indicated contraction in industrial activity of the region. As the production rate of various commodities contracted during the quarter as indicated by the falling PMI of the region, the prices of various products surged.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The Isoprene Rubber market showed mixed sentiments in the first quarter of 2023, which was aided by changing dynamics of supply and demand. Prices for Isoprene Rubber rose in February after hardly moving upward in January, only to fall back as the quarter's end approaches. As soon as the semiconductor supply started to improve, the automotive industry started to rebound, but it was severely harmed by the economic upheaval brought on by the failure of two big US banks. Less Isoprene Rubber was consumed by the automotive industry because of the recession's harsh effects, which eventually led to a drop in price. Thus, in March, it was estimated that the price of Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) in the USA was USD 4174/MT FOB Texas.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2023, Isoprene Rubber prices continually increased in the Asia-Pacific region, supported by rising downstream demand. The automobile sector displayed a market spike as soon as the first quarter of the year got underway, which increased purchases of Isoprene Rubbers. The automobile industry's growth was first gradual as it worked to recover from its losses from the previous year, but a rise was seen in February as the sector's industrial output and sales dramatically increased. However, due to the unstable global economy, as the quarter ended, the growth momentum of the automotive industry slowed down once more. Consequently, Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) was assembled at the cost of USD 3838/MT FOB Tokyo.
Europe
Prices for Isoprene Rubber decreased in the European market throughout the first quarter of 2023, supported by a drop in downstream demand. Although the European market for the downstream automotive and tire sectors displayed signals of recovery on various occasions throughout the quarter, the demand for Isoprene Rubber did not significantly increase. Additionally, there were a lot of Isoprene Rubber stockpiles, and the region's demand for the product was lesser than the supply rate, which caused the price to decline. The supply rate also increased due to the absence of port congestion and supply chain bottlenecks, which helped to sustain the decline in the price of Isoprene Rubber. Therefore, during March, the evaluated price for Isoprene Rubber in Germany was USD 1506/MT FD Hamburg.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Amid sluggish downstream demand and lowering manufacturing costs, Isoprene Rubber's market value constantly decreased in the fourth quarter of 2022 in the North American market. As the downstream automotive and tire industries were showcasing underwhelming performance in terms of sales and industrial output during the quarter, the demand for Isoprene Rubber from these industries fell. Additionally, the cost of producing Isoprene Rubber kept declining as crude oil and natural gas prices decreased, which led to a drop in the material's market value. Thus, the estimated price in the USA for Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) in December was USD 3563/MT FOB Texas, which was 6.8% less than the price in September.
APAC
Like the North American market, the value of Isoprene Rubber in the Asia-Pacific region was steadily declining in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to weak downstream demand and falling manufacturing costs. The demand for isoprene rubber decreased as the downstream automotive and tire industries displayed lackluster performance in terms of sales and industrial output during the quarter. Additionally, as the price of crude oil and natural gas fell, the cost of making isoprene rubber continued to decrease, which resulted in a reduction in the material's market value. Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) was therefore assessed to cost USD 2644/MT CFR Shanghai in China during December, which was 5.5% less than the price in September.
Europe
As the European market was experiencing weak downstream demand and a reduction in manufacturing costs for Isoprene Rubber, its prices were steadily declining in the fourth quarter of 2022. As the downstream automotive and tire industries performed poorly in terms of sales and industrial output during the quarter, the demand for Isoprene Rubber declined. In addition, as the cost of crude oil and natural gas dropped, so did the price of producing isoprene rubber, which decreased the commodities market value altogether. As a result, the estimated cost of Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) was USD 1921/MT FD Hamburg in Germany during December, which was 8.3% less than the cost in September.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Isoprene Rubber prices in the North American market were erratic throughout the third quarter of 2022 due to fluctuating dynamics between supply and demand. Prices for Isoprene Rubber surged in July, dropped in August, and then increased once more in September. The rise in industrial production rates, the excess supply, and the surplus of stocks were the main contributors to the decrease in the price of Isoprene Rubber in august. Weak downstream demand from the tire and adhesives industries served to reinforce this tendency even further. September saw a change in Isoprene Rubber prices because of supply issues, supply chain interruptions, and increasing demand. Hence, the price value of Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) assembled at USD 3823/MT FOB Texas during September.
APAC
Isoprene Rubber prices in the Asia-Pacific region have been steadily declining during the third quarter of 2022 except for the month of July when it was rising. The prices dropped afterward due to weak demand from the downstream tire and adhesive industries. As these industries were not doing well in terms of production output and sales, the offtake of Isoprene Rubber was reduced. Furthermore, the Asian market was flooded with increased supply, which caused overflowing inventories, eventually leading to better material availability in the market. Besides, as the downstream demand was poor, good availability of material resulted in dropped price value. Conclusively, the assessed price value of Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) was USD 3422/MT FOB Tokyo (Japan) in September.
Europe
Because of rising raw material costs, the price of Isoprene Rubber in Europe gradually increased throughout the third quarter of 2022. Even though the demand from the tire and adhesives industries was not exceptionally high during the quarter, the increased raw material prices had an impact on the upstream costs related to producing Isoprene Rubber, ultimately raising its market value. Port backlogs and supply disruptions in the countries throughout the quarter increased the cost of Isoprene Rubber in the domestic market. As a result, the evaluated price for Isoprene Rubber MV (60-80) was USD 2094/MT FD Hamburg (Germany) during the month of September.
