For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American isopentane market experienced a 13% decline in Q4 2024, driven by oversupply and falling crude oil prices, which exerted downward pressure on the market. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), refinery utilization rates showed a positive trend, increasing from 86.7% (week ending October 4) to 89.55% (October 18) before slightly dropping to 89.1% by October 25. These fluctuations kept isopentane production at moderate levels in October. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike significantly impacted East Coast ports, reducing capacity by 14%, delaying cargo handling, and leading to inventory buildup. This excess supply, combined with weak demand, resulted in bearish market sentiment and declining prices.
In November, refinery run rates rose from 88.25% in October to 90.65%, bolstered by the post-hurricane season recovery. A 4% decrease in crude oil prices reduced production costs, ensuring steady isopentane supply. Backlogged inventories from Q3 further added to oversupply.
By December, refinery rates increased to 92.3%, sustaining high production. Despite stable crude oil prices, destocking and cautious buying created a low-demand environment. Anticipation of a potential January 2025 strike led suppliers to move large volumes of cargo, contributing to the ongoing soft market conditions.
Europe
The European isopentane market experienced a price decline of approximately 14% in Q4 2024 due to ample supplies and weaker crude oil prices. In October 2024, isopentane production in Belgium returned to normal levels as refineries completed maintenance turnarounds. Despite a 3% increase in crude oil prices, production costs remained largely unaffected. Export challenges persisted due to port backlogs, particularly in Hamburg, Rotterdam, and Antwerp. Terminal modernization, high yard utilization (85% at Hamburg), and delays caused by fog and maintenance work further complicated export operations.
In November, crude oil prices declined by over 4%, lowering production costs. Refineries operated smoothly, maintaining robust isopentane supplies. However, export disruptions continued, with Belgian ports affected by road and bridge maintenance that will extend into 2025.
As 2024 concluded, destocking dominated the market, leading to ample availability in Belgium and limited outages across crude distillation units. Suppliers aggressively liquidated inventories to avoid tax implications, shortening delivery times and further suppressing prices. Low demand from the downstream EPS sector and the prolonged holiday break exacerbated the soft market conditions.
APAC
The Asian isopentane market saw an approximate 8% price decline during Q4 2024, primarily due to lower production costs driven by reduced crude oil prices. In October 2024, Indian suppliers reported ample isopentane availability as delayed shipments from North America and Europe, impacted by port disruptions, began to arrive. Despite a 3% increase in crude oil prices and a 1.14% rise in freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia, prices in India remained stable due to the oversupply caused by exporters clearing excess inventories, anticipating weak demand from the EPS sector. In November, supply conditions improved as North American and European exporters aggressively liquidated stocks to mitigate year-end tax liabilities.
Freight rates from Europe to Southeast Asia fell by 5%, further lowering import costs, while a 4% depreciation in crude oil prices eased production costs, ensuring steady supplies in India. By December, isopentane manufacturing costs remained stable, supported by a 0.5% rise in India’s crude oil imports to 4.71 million barrels per day. However, a 17% decline in Russian crude imports, ongoing European port delays, and high U.S. logistical costs extended delivery times.
Freight charges rose by over 17% due to congestion and the Christmas rush, causing a marginal price uptick. Despite these challenges, ample availability, driven by suppliers’ destocking efforts, kept upward pressure on prices minimal.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 has been challenging for Isopentane pricing in the North America region, with significant price decreases observed. Various factors have influenced market prices, including a general slowdown in demand from downstream industries such as Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) due to sluggish construction activities.
The depreciation in the prices of Crude Oil, impacted by excess production and weak economic growth in key regions, further contributed to the downward trend in Isopentane prices. In the USA, the market saw the most significant price changes, with production costs easing due to the slump in Crude Oil prices. However, limited demand from the construction sector and subdued consumption from EPS industries kept prices under pressure.
Plant shutdowns, such as the force majeure declared by ExxonMobil at its refinery in Beaumont, Texas, also disrupted supply chains. Overall, the quarter experienced a negative pricing environment, with a noticeable -7% decrease from the previous quarter and a substantial -12% drop between the first and second half. The quarter-ending price stood at USD 1528/MT of Isopentane FOB Houston in the USA.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the Isopentane market in the APAC region experienced a challenging period marked by decreasing prices. Several significant factors influenced market prices during this time. The depreciation in the prices of Crude Oil, primarily driven by excess production among OPEC+ members and weak economic growth in key markets, played a crucial role in lowering production costs of Isopentane. Additionally, disruptions such as port closures, strikes, and maintenance turnarounds further impacted the market, leading to supply shortages and increased freight charges. In India, which saw the most significant price changes, the Isopentane market reflected overall negative trends. Demand conditions were subdued, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors due to seasonal factors like the monsoon season. Despite efforts to stimulate demand through discounts, high inventory levels and low customer inquiries persisted. The quarter recorded a 9% decrease from the previous quarter, with a notable -2% difference between the first and second half of the quarter. Disruptions like plant shutdowns at key facilities added to the challenges faced by market participants.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Isopentane market in Europe experienced a challenging period marked by decreasing prices. Several significant factors contributed to this trend. Firstly, the sluggish demand from downstream industries, particularly in the construction and EPS sectors, exerted pressure on prices. Additionally, the oversupply of Isopentane due to low consumption further weighed down on the market. The depreciation in the prices of Crude Oil also played a crucial role in driving down production costs, leading to a decline in Isopentane prices. Within Belgium, the pricing landscape saw significant fluctuations, with the highest price change recorded compared to other European regions. The quarter witnessed a notable -6% decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a downward trend. Furthermore, the comparison between the first and second half of the quarter revealed a substantial -11% drop in prices. The quarter concluded with Isopentane priced at USD 1580/MT FOB Antwerp in Belgium, reflecting the persistently negative pricing environment throughout the period. Overall, the Isopentane market in Europe faced a challenging quarter characterized by declining prices, low demand, oversupply, and external factors influencing production costs.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Isopentane market in North America experienced a notable price surge driven by several impactful factors. Despite a decline in Crude Oil prices, Isopentane prices faced significant upward pressure due to improved demand conditions, particularly from the Polystyrene industries downstream. The expansion of the US manufacturing sector in May 2024, following a contraction in April, also contributed to this trend, though the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates between 5.25% to 5.5% raised concerns about future industrial activities.
The USA, where the most pronounced price changes occurred, demonstrated an overall bullish trend. Seasonal factors, such as severe thunderstorms in Houston and the Gulf Coast disrupting chemical plant operations, exacerbated supply constraints by creating inventory shortages. The automotive sector's recovery, marked by an 8.8% increase in sales, especially in SUVs and pickup trucks, further drove demand for EPS and bolstered Isopentane prices. Additionally, despite a broader decline in spending, improved housing starts in construction activities contributed to increased Isopentane consumption.
Comparing Q2 2024 to the previous quarter, Isopentane prices rose by 6%, indicating a steady and positive pricing environment. Between the first and second halves of the quarter, prices saw a 5% increase, highlighting sustained demand and constrained supply dynamics. Ending the quarter, Isopentane was priced at USD 1766/MT FOB Houston in the USA, solidifying the upward trend throughout the period. Overall, the pricing landscape was notably favourable, driven by recovering demand, supply disruptions, and expansions in key sectors.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, Isopentane prices in the APAC region saw a significant rise, driven by several pivotal factors. A notable supply shortage, exacerbated by high freight costs stemming from disruptions in major maritime routes like the Strait of Malacca and Port of Singapore, played a crucial role in pushing prices upwards. These logistical challenges delayed deliveries and increased transportation expenses, contributing to the overall bullish market sentiment. Moreover, a partial resurgence in demand from sectors such as automotive parts packaging and Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) manufacturing intensified supply constraints, further boosting prices.
In India, there was a particularly pronounced surge in Isopentane prices within the region. Despite a 6% decline from the previous quarter, the overall trend remained strongly positive. This increase was driven by low inventory levels, increased demand from the EPS sector, and higher import costs from Europe. Seasonal factors, including reduced working hours due to severe heatwaves and disruptions related to elections, also significantly curtailed domestic production. A comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter revealed an 8% rise, highlighting consistent upward momentum.
The quarter-ending price of Isopentane in India, recorded at USD 1792.85/MT CFR JNPT, underscores a generally favorable pricing environment amid underlying challenges. Notably, there were no reported plant shutdowns during this period. The data from this quarter underscores a strong correlation between constrained supply, rising demand, and resultant price increases, defining the second quarter of 2024 as a period marked by substantial price escalations for Isopentane across the APAC region.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, Isopentane prices in Europe followed a strong upward trajectory driven by a variety of factors. Demand surged in the automotive parts packaging sector, particularly for expanded polystyrene (EPS) and extruded polystyrene (XPS) foams, significantly boosting prices despite a decrease in crude oil costs that typically lowers production expenses. This persistent demand surge, coupled with limited supply, maintained a bullish market sentiment. Increased business activities, new orders, and rising employment across the region further supported price hikes, reflecting a positive economic outlook. Although input cost inflation moderated, it remained elevated above pre-pandemic levels, contributing to continued upward price pressures.
Belgium experienced the most significant price changes for Isopentane, with prices rising by 7% compared to the previous quarter in 2024. Supply struggled to meet resurgent demand, intensifying price increases throughout the period. The first half of the quarter saw prices climb by approximately 5%, a trend that continued into the latter half due to seasonal factors and steady demand from the automotive sector. With no major plant shutdowns reported, supply constraints tightened further, culminating in Isopentane prices reaching USD 1801/MT FOB Antwerp by the end of the quarter. This underscored a robust pricing environment driven by strong demand and limited supply conditions.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
During Q1 2024, the Isopentane market in North America experienced a positive pricing environment, driven by various factors. One of the key factors influencing market prices was the geopolitical tensions, which led to an increase in the benchmark price of crude oil. Additionally, disruptions in the Red Sea caused an increase in freight charges, further impacting the overall cost of the product.
Demand for Isopentane remained overall low throughout the quarter, with construction activity and investment in residential construction declining. However, there was some improvement in demand from downstream industries, particularly in the solvent and fuel additive segments. Looking at the overall trend, prices increased in January and February due to bullish market sentiment and higher production costs. However, prices eased in March due to a decrease in crude oil prices.
In conclusion, the Isopentane market in North America experienced an inclining pricing environment in Q1 2024. Comparing Q1 2024 to the same quarter last year, there was an overall decrease in prices of more than 7%. However, there was an increase in prices around 4.5% compared to the previous quarter.
APAC:
During Q1 2024, the Isopentane market in the APAC region observed a diverse pricing landscape, characterized by notable price fluctuations particularly evident in India. Various factors, including production costs, downstream industry demand, and geopolitical events, influenced the overall trajectory of Isopentane prices in the region. In India, Isopentane prices surged significantly in January, registering a notable 20% increase compared to the previous month. This upswing was primarily fueled by elevated production costs and robust demand from sectors like solvents, and cosmetics. However, February saw a continued but slower price escalation, with around 2% uptick. Geopolitical events, such as the Red Sea crisis and the Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian refinery, exerted pressure on the market, resulting in heightened shipping expenses and increased crude oil prices. Despite these challenges, demand remained steady from the cosmetics, and solvents manufacturing sectors. Examining the broader trend, Isopentane prices in Q1 2024 were lower compared to the corresponding quarter last year. However, there was a positive price change from the previous quarter in 2024, indicating bullish market sentiment. In conclusion, the Isopentane pricing landscape in Q1 2024 across the APAC region showcased predominantly positive trends. Isopentane prices experienced an approximate 5% increase compared to the previous quarter, while witnessing a decrease of more than 9% in the first quarter compared to the same period of the previous year.
Europe:
Throughout Q1 2024, the Isopentane market in Europe witnessed a notable uptick in pricing dynamics. Market sentiment remained bullish as prices surged, driven by a multitude of factors. Various influences shaped the Isopentane market in Europe during this quarter. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and disruptions in the Red Sea contributed to heightened crude oil prices and increased freight charges. However, subdued demand from downstream industries, evident through declining industrial production output and industrial producer prices, constrained the market's upward momentum. Belgium, experiencing the most significant price fluctuations, saw Isopentane prices commence the quarter at USD 1630/MT FOB Antwerp. March witnessed a 3% price increase, propelled by elevated product costs, including rising crude oil prices and escalated freight charges. Comparatively, Isopentane prices in Q1 2024 exhibited a roughly 16% decrease from the same period last year. Summarizing the Isopentane market in Europe, notably in Belgium, encountered a rising pricing environment throughout Q1 2024. While factors such as heightened crude oil prices and increased freight charges pushed prices upward, subdued demand from downstream industries and potential fluctuations in crude oil prices-imposed limitations on market growth.
