For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The U.S. Iso-Butanol market witnessed a predominantly bearish situation, with prices falling by approximately 31% due to ample supplies circulating across the market. Despite disruptions caused by the hurricane season, which affected production and logistics, U.S. suppliers were reported to have built large inventories, continuing to drive bearish market conditions. Although some producers, like Eastman Chemicals, attempted to improve the market situation by announcing a price hike of USD 110/MT for October deliveries, these efforts were largely ineffective.
Demand conditions remained weak throughout the quarter, with a decline in construction spending continuing to retain the bearish momentum. Export conditions for Iso-Butanol were further negative due to the strike between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX). Although the strike lasted for only 3 days, the backlog of vessels led to inventory accumulation at ports.
Toward the end of the quarter, destocking activities prevailed, with U.S. suppliers under pressure to liquidate inventories amidst fears of end-of-year tax repercussions and inventory devaluation, which further exacerbated the bearish market sentiment.
Europe
The European Iso-Butanol market witnessed a depreciation of approximately 12% during the last quarter of 2024 due to ample supplies amid low demand conditions. Following OQ Chemicals' return to production in early May, the market struggled to recover from its bearish trend, as demand from primary sectors like paints and coatings remained weak. The downturn persisted throughout the latter part of the quarter, with destocking activities intensifying as early as mid-November 2024. Producers faced challenges in passing on higher feedstock Propylene costs to customers, further pressuring the market. Arbitrage opportunities in and out of Europe remained largely closed, and inland trading encountered disruptions, exacerbated by maintenance at several ports in Northwestern Europe. These issues hindered product flow, leading to inventory accumulation and further price declines. Toward the year’s end, producers attempted to stabilize the market by reducing production, but these efforts were largely unsuccessful. The European Iso-Butanol market was marked by limited outages and ample supplies as suppliers sought to move inventories in bulk to avoid tax repercussions. This effort to clear stocks became a dominant factor behind the persistent bearishness observed in the market.
APAC
The Asian Iso-Butanol market witnessed a predominantly bullish market situation, with prices rising by approximately 6% as supplies remained constrained from the exporting Taiwanese market. Seasonal hurricanes across the South China Sea caused disruptions, leading to limited arrivals of Iso-Butanol inventories in Japan. Midway through the last quarter, major producers such as JNC Corporation were reported to have announced price increases of approximately Yen 15,000/MT, which continued to drive prices upward. Furthermore, towards the end of the year, major producers like Formosa Plastics and Nan Ya Plastics were reported to have undergone maintenance turnarounds, which further tightened supplies to the Japanese market. Demand conditions remained predominantly negative, with the downturn in Japan’s construction sector persisting throughout Q4 2024. In the domestic market, lower production was further reported due to low operating rates of PDH units across East Asia, which continued to propel the market upward despite weak demand.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American isobutanol market faced significant challenges, leading to a notable decline in prices driven by a confluence of adverse factors. The market was primarily impacted by weakened demand from downstream industries, which failed to recover amid seasonal fluctuations, despite one of the majore producers of Iso-Butnaol namely Eastman Chemicals increasing the prices by USD 110/mt from August 1, 2024 as per the release dated July 17, 2024. Despite some production disruptions due to shutdowns in feedstock propylene, the overall demand remained lackluster, contributing to a bearish pricing environment. During this quarter, unfavorable export conditions further exacerbated the situation. Strikes organized by the International Longshoremen's Association disrupted shipping and logistics, complicating the already strained supply chain.
Additionally, the ongoing hurricane season posed further production challenges, affecting operations in critical manufacturing areas across the USA. As a result, the pricing landscape for isobutanol experienced a consistent downward trajectory, particularly in the United States, which recorded the most significant price fluctuations. Prices plummeted by 12% compared to the same period last year, reflecting a stark contraction in market value. This decline was not just a year-over-year trend; the quarter saw a 3% decrease from the previous quarter of 2024, underscoring the persistent pressure on prices.
Moreover, a comparison of pricing from the first half of the quarter to the latter revealed an additional 2% drop, further indicating the ongoing bearish sentiment. By the end of the quarter, the price of isobutanol settled at USD 2,120/MT DDP Texas, a figure that encapsulates the overall negative sentiment prevailing in the market
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the Asian isobutanol market experienced a pronounced bearish trend, with prices plummeting by over 23% by the quarter's end. This decline was primarily driven by an oversupplied market that continued to exert downward pressure on prices. Formosa Plastics Corporation, a key producer in the region, maintained its Mai Liao facility’s run rates at 100% capacity, producing 240,000 metric tons of isobutanol. Similarly, Luxi Chemical, with a production capacity of 300,000 metric tons per year, also kept its run rate steady at 100% throughout the quarter, contributing to an overall supply glut. This situation resulted in historically low prices for isobutanol across the Asian market. Despite moderate availability of feedstock propylene—which was expected to impact production—the continued high supply overwhelmed demand. Furthermore, a downturn in the construction sector limited demand from the paints and coatings industries, further exacerbating the price decline. The combination of abundant supply and subdued demand created significant challenges for the isobutanol market in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European isobutanol market experienced a downward trend in prices, with a notable 7% decline compared to the same quarter last year. This downturn was largely attributed to weakened demand from downstream industries, particularly paints and coatings, coupled with an oversupply of propylene that helped reduce production costs. Despite the challenges, the market showed signs of normalization with the return of OQ Chemicals to production early in the quarter. However, in August 2024, disruptions arose as many propylene plants temporarily shut down for maintenance during the summer holidays. This included Shell Chemicals declaring a force majeure at its production site in Moerdijk, Netherlands, which resulted in decreased isobutanol output across Europe. To counteract the continuous bearish market conditions, OQ Chemicals implemented a price increase of $110/MT in the European market. By September 2024, most propylene plants resumed operations, along with the arrival of propylene cargoes from the Middle East and Asia, leading to a supply glut that further intensified the bearish market sentiment. Germany, in particular, experienced significant price fluctuations, with a 3% decrease from the previous quarter and a 1% drop between the first and second halves of the quarter. While some stability returned, overall market conditions remained negative, influenced by subdued construction activity and poor performance in the housing sector. By the end of the quarter, the price of isobutanol in Germany was recorded at $1,160/MT FD Hamburg, reflecting ongoing downward pressure in the pricing environment. The quarter highlighted the ongoing struggle to balance supply and demand amid challenging market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 proved dynamic for the North American Iso Butanol market, shaped by pivotal factors. A key driver of price increases was the rising cost of feedstock Propylene, exacerbated by increased power consumption and logistical challenges. These factors, coupled with weather disruptions and unexpected plant shutdowns, significantly raised production costs. Expansion in the manufacturing sector and higher prices for consumer goods further contributed to the upward pricing trend.
In the USA, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, the Iso Butanol market showed a clear upward trajectory. Seasonal demand spikes during peak construction months played a crucial role. Despite stable global sentiment, regulatory impacts on mortgage rates and construction standards also drove price appreciation. Year-over-year comparisons revealed a notable 24% decrease from the previous year, offset by a modest 2% increase from the preceding quarter of 2024, indicating a recovery phase within the fiscal period. Comparing the first to the second half of the quarter, prices saw a consistent 2% increment, signalling a strengthening market.
Closing the quarter at USD 2195 per metric ton DDP Texas underscored a generally positive pricing environment. These developments highlight the complex dynamics of supply chain challenges, regulatory influences, and seasonal demand, shaping a stable yet cautiously optimistic outlook for the market.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, Iso-Butanol prices in the APAC region surged significantly, driven by a complex interplay of factors. Key among these were substantial supply constraints exacerbated by maintenance turnarounds at Propylene and oxo-alcohol plants. These planned shutdowns sharply curtailed production, tightening supply chains across the region. Adding to the supply pressure, escalating freight costs due to port congestions further inflated import expenses, compounding the overall market strain. Simultaneously, robust demand from downstream industries, particularly in plastics and solvents, bolstered market sentiment. This heightened demand was particularly notable in Japan, where Iso-Butanol prices experienced pronounced volatility. Quarter-over-quarter, prices spiked by 6%, underscoring persistent imbalances between supply and demand dynamics. The seasonal surge in construction activities during the summer months further stimulated demand, contrasting sharply with the market's condition a year earlier when prices had plummeted by 14%. This decline was reflective of the economic downturn induced by the pandemic. Looking closely at the quarterly performance, Iso-Butanol prices saw a modest 1% increase from the first half to the second half of the quarter. The quarter concluded with Iso-Butanol priced at USD 1208 per metric ton CFR Osaka, encapsulating the upward trajectory fuelled by constrained supplies and resilient demand from key industries. Overall, the second quarter of 2024 highlighted a robust pricing environment for Iso-Butanol in APAC, characterized by supply chain challenges and strong industrial demand. These factors collectively underscored a bullish outlook for the market, signalling sustained upward momentum in Iso-Butanol prices.
Europe
Europe's Iso Butanol market faced significant challenges in the second quarter of 2024, marked by a persistent decline in prices. This downturn was primarily influenced by several critical factors. Foremost among them was the resumption of production by OQ Chemicals, a leading European manufacturer, which alleviated previous supply constraints and boosted market availability of Iso Butanol. Additionally, improved logistics in the Middle East and Asia, alongside reduced freight costs, facilitated smoother imports, further bolstering supply levels. Despite these supply improvements, demand from key sectors such as plasticizers and construction remained subdued throughout the quarter. The construction industry showed sluggish activity with declining new orders, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the market. Across the broader manufacturing sector, while production stabilized somewhat, the demand for chemicals like Iso Butanol failed to gain momentum. Germany, experiencing the most pronounced price fluctuations, saw a clear downward trend. Iso Butanol prices in Germany dropped by 24% compared to the previous year, reflecting substantial market pressures. Quarter-on-quarter, prices declined by 5%, continuing the negative trajectory. Comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, there was a 2% price decrease, underscoring the sustained downward movement. Closing the quarter, Iso Butanol was priced at USD 1240 per metric ton FD Hamburg, highlighting the challenging pricing environment. In summary, the Iso Butanol market in Europe during Q2 2024 faced adverse conditions driven by improved supply dynamics amid weak demand, notably in Germany where pricing trends were most impacted.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American Iso Butanol market witnessed a largely bearish market situation during the first quarter of 2024. Overall prices of the product witnessed a depreciation of approximately 15% across the US during the first quarter of 2024.
The slump in the prices Iso-Butanol across the USAs attributed to subdued construction activities across Southeast Asia, due to seasonal factors and the property sector being largely in crisis. Moreover, disruptions at key shipping routes such as the persistent crisis at the Red Sea and the drought conditions at the Panama Canal eventually led to stockpiling of the product across the North American ports.
Despite one of the leading producers of oxo-alcohols across the US market, namely Eastman Chemicals, announcing a price hike, the effects did not translate into the export prices of Iso-Butanol during this timeframe. Overall, during this quarter, export conditions for US Iso Butanol market remained highly unfavorable due to seasonal winter season where construction activities across the Southeast Asian market remained subdued, and the festive Chinese Lunar New Year holidays due to which consumption of the product also remained moderate
Asia
During the first quarter of 2024 the Asian Iso-Butanol market was primarily driven by increments in the prices of feedstock Propylene and a deficit of inventories entering the East Asian market. However, demand conditions from the construction sector continued to remain highly unfavorable as the construction sector continued to underperform. Increments in the prices were also attributed to price hikes initiated by various oxo-alcohol manufacturers, namely OQ Chemicals and Eastman Chemicals. With the Asian Iso-Butanol market being largely an import driven market therefore the prices hikes initiated by the global oxo-alcohols players directly translated into the prices of the product. Moreover, shipping disruptions in the key waterways for example drought conditions at Panama Canal and the crisis at the Red Sea also played a pivotal role, in the arrival of expensive imports into the Asian market along the supply disruptions caused by the Noto Earthquake. Demand conditions, however, remained highly unfavorable, as evidenced by declining housing starts and public construction orders.
Europe
The European Iso-butanol market witnessed an increase of around 30% in the prices during the first quarter of 2024 due to heightened production costs, a scarcity of feedstock Propylene, and the price hikes introduced by major oxo-alcohol producers. A scarcity of feedstock Propylene was observed across the European market due to feedstock Propylene plants being shut across the exporting US market which led to heightened production costs. Moreover, OQ Chemicals a major oxo-alcohol producer had declared a force majeure at its Oberhausen site in Germany, further leading to a shortage in the supplies of the product. The demand for the product remained moderate across the Eurozone and mainly existed from the Dutch, Belgian, and British markets where construction activities improved, which led to moderate demand for the product. However, across the domestic German market, demand conditions continued to remain unfavorable as the construction sector continued to remain in retrenchment for the fifteenth consecutive month. All segments of the construction sector namely, residential construction, commercial construction, and civil engineering witnessed significant contraction towards the end of March 2024.
