For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Inconel market experienced a challenging period characterized by decreasing prices. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. Despite a 5% rise in nickel prices, Inconel prices in the region saw a 1% decrease, reflecting the impact of external economic pressures.
The manufacturing sector faced contraction, leading to subdued demand for specialty alloys like Inconel. Mixed signals in construction spending and uncertainty surrounding interest rate cuts further dampened market growth prospects. Within the USA, the market exhibited the most significant price changes, with prices falling in the quarter. Supply dynamics in the country faced surplus pressures, leading to discounted older inventory and pricing adjustments. While production levels remained solid, the oversupply situation created challenges for manufacturers.
Demand, although stable in critical sectors, faced headwinds from economic uncertainties and reduced purchasing activities. The quarter recorded a 2% price drop between the first and second half, reflecting ongoing market fragility. The quarter ended with Alloy 600 Sheet priced at USD 49090/MT DEL Florida, signalling a persisting negative pricing environment in the Inconel market. No plant shutdowns were observed during this quarter.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2024, the Inconel market in the APAC region experienced a decline in prices, influenced by various factors. Reduced demand and surplus supply played a significant role in driving prices down. The stability of nickel prices and fluctuations in key raw materials like nickel and chromium further contributed to the downward pressure on market prices.
Additionally, challenges in the steel industry, such as low demand and excess supply, added to the negative pricing environment. The quarter also saw disruptions in production, with some plants experiencing shutdowns, impacting the overall supply chain. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes during the quarter. The market trends in Japan reflected the overall decreasing sentiment, with prices experiencing a negative trend. Seasonality and market correlations further exacerbated the price decline.
Comparing prices from the same quarter last year, there was a noticeable decrease. The quarter-on-quarter percentage change recorded a decrease of 3% and the comparison between the first and second half of the quarter indicated a 2% decrease. The quarter-ending price in Japan stood at USD 41593/MT for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Osaka, highlighting the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe Region witnessed a period of stable Inconel prices, characterized by consistent market conditions and minimal fluctuations. This stability was influenced by various factors, including resilient supply chains, steady demand from key industries, and controlled production costs. Despite facing challenges such as global economic uncertainties and supply chain disruptions, the Inconel market maintained a balanced pricing environment throughout the quarter.
In Germany, which experienced the most significant price changes in the region, the Inconel market mirrored the overall stable trend observed in Europe. The country's pricing dynamics were impacted by factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices, changing demand from sectors like aerospace and energy, and seasonal variations in industrial activities.
The percentage change from the same quarter last year indicated a consistency in pricing trends, while the recorded a 5% decline from the previous quarter highlighted minor adjustments in market conditions. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price variation, further emphasizing the overall stability in the German Inconel market. As the quarter concluded, the price for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Werdohl in Germany stood at USD 42218/MT, underscoring the prevailing stable pricing environment in the region. Despite occasional challenges, the quarter overall exhibited a positive sentiment with prices maintaining equilibrium and reflecting resilience in the face of external pressures.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Inconel pricing landscape in the MEA region experienced a notable decline, reflecting a negative sentiment across the market. Various factors contributed to this downward trend, including an oversupply of Inconel leading to lower spot market prices, volatile nickel prices impacting production costs, and reduced demand from key sectors like construction and automotive.
The excess supply of Inconel put downward pressure on prices, while nickel price fluctuations added to the cost challenges faced by producers. Demand constraints from sectors like construction and automotive further exacerbated the pricing decline, creating a challenging environment for Inconel pricing in the region.
In the United Arab Emirates specifically, the market saw the most significant price changes, with a recorded 9% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a further decline in prices. Despite stable supply dynamics, high inventory levels, and decreasing demand contributed to the negative price trend in the UAE. The quarter-ending price for Alloy 600 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali in the UAE stood at USD 31662/MT, highlighting the prevailing downward pricing trend in the region. No plant shutdowns were observed during the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Inconel pricing in North America experienced substantial upward momentum, driven by a confluence of factors that created a bullish market environment. The imposition of sanctions on Russian raw materials, particularly nickel, aluminium, and copper, exacerbated supply constraints, leading to increased input costs. Additionally, operational difficulties in nickel mines in Brazil and New Caledonia further tightened supply, contributing to rising Inconel prices. Geopolitical tensions and logistical bottlenecks, such as the Red Sea crisis and drought conditions in the Panama Canal, resulted in higher shipping costs, which compounded the cost pressures on Inconel production.
In the USA, which saw the most significant price changes, the pricing environment was predominantly shaped by robust demand from the automotive and construction sectors. The rise in the US PMI Composite Output Index, indicating increased business activity and new orders, underscored strong domestic demand. Despite a notable decline in new export orders, domestic consumption remained high, with the Light Vehicle Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales (SAAR) for May 2024 showing considerable growth driven by SUV and truck sales. Overall, the trends indicated a consistent increase in Inconel prices, influenced by seasonal demand peaks and the ongoing supply chain challenges.
The price contrast between the first and second half of the quarter showed a significant increase, highlighting rising cost pressures and continued demand. The quarter-ending price for Alloy 600 Sheet DEL Florida in the USA stood at USD 52180/MT, highlighting a positive pricing environment throughout Q2 2024. The market's bullish sentiment underscored the interplay of limited supply, increasing production costs, and strong end-user demand, solidifying the upward trajectory in Inconel prices. No plant shutdowns were recorded during the quarter.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Inconel market in the APAC region experienced a relatively stable pricing environment, despite several influencing factors. The overall stability can be attributed to a balanced interplay of supply and demand forces. Key factors contributing to this equilibrium included geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating shipping costs, which collectively maintained a steady state in the market. The consistent demand from the automotive and industrial sectors underscored the resilience of Inconel pricing amidst external pressures.
In Japan, notable fluctuations were observed, driven primarily by operational issues in nickel mines in Brazil and New Caledonia, along with geopolitical tensions impacting nickel stockpiles. The absence of significant plant shutdowns ensured a steady production flow, even as manufacturers navigated increased shipping costs due to disruptions like the Red Sea crisis. Seasonality also played a role, with strategic government spending on infrastructure projects contributing to sustained demand.
When compared to the same quarter last year, there was a change in prices from the previous quarter, indicating a slight increase in market activities. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter remained steady, further emphasizing the stable trend. Concluding the quarter, the price of Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan stood at USD 43084/MT. Overall, the pricing environment for Inconel in Q2 2024 has been stable, reflecting a balanced market sentiment despite external and seasonal pressures.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Inconel market experienced a notable decline in prices, influenced by various significant factors. The market was characterized by high inventory levels, slow demand, and increased production costs, which collectively contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Despite rising feedstock costs for nickel and chromium, sluggish demand in downstream sectors and a generally weak economic sentiment exacerbated the situation. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions added further complexity, notably impacting shipping costs due to longer transit times and heightened sea freight rates.
Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most substantial price changes, the situation was particularly pronounced. The country's economic challenges, including expensive energy and reduced activity in core industries like construction and automotive, led to decreased optimism and job cuts. The construction sector saw a continuous decline in new orders and project delays, while the automotive industry recorded a significant drop in new passenger car registrations. The interplay of these elements led to a notable decrease from the previous quarter and a significant fall in prices when comparing the first and second half of the quarter.
Overall, the pricing environment for Inconel in Germany was decidedly negative, with the quarter-ending price for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Werdohl recorded at USD 42,778/MT. The market dynamics indicated a continued bearish trend, driven by an imbalance between supply and demand and exacerbated by broader economic and geopolitical challenges. This consistent declining sentiment underscores the need for strategic adjustments within the industry to navigate these challenging conditions effectively.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Inconel market in the MEA region exhibited a stable pricing environment, driven by multiple factors that influenced market prices. Geopolitical tensions and operational disruptions at nickel mines in Brazil and New Caledonia contributed to supply constraints, leading to increased material costs for battery and stainless-steel production. Additionally, logistical challenges, including higher sea freight rates and the Red Sea crisis, exacerbated cost pressures. Despite these disruptions, the overall sentiment remained stable due to balanced supply and demand dynamics.
Focusing on the United Arab Emirates, the market experienced the most significant price changes within the region. The UAE's Purchasing Managers' Index remained constant, reflecting stable economic conditions despite input cost increases and supply chain constraints. The construction sector saw a notable workforce increase, which, coupled with high inventory levels, maintained demand dynamics. The correlation between industrial production growth and Inconel pricing underscored a stable trend, with minor fluctuations attributed to seasonal factors and robust infrastructure project pipelines.
When comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, the price change stayed consistent, suggesting market stability. However, prices decreased from the previous quarter of 2024, showing a controlled environment amid fluctuating global factors. The latest quarter-ending price for Alloy 600 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali in the UAE was USD 34,913/MT. Overall, despite external disruptions and internal pressures, the Inconel pricing in the UAE and the broader MEA region has maintained a stable stance, reflecting a positive sentiment towards future market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the Inconel pricing dynamics in the North America region, particularly in the USA, were influenced by various factors beyond the conventional top three. The market situation in the USA was characterized as bearish, with high supply and low demand. The oversupply of nickel, driven by low-cost production in Indonesia, resulted in a significant drop in nickel prices and disrupted the market balance.
This surplus of nickel led to price volatility and concerns about the profitability of nickel production, impacting the manufacturing cost of Inconel. In terms of demand, the US market experienced a significant drop, aligned with challenging patterns in the domestic structural steel sector and weak demand from the automotive and infrastructure industries. The reduction in profitability for steel producers from the nickel surplus also affected the cost and availability of nickel, a key component in Inconel production.
But in March 2024, the US witnessed a 5.5% growth in the new light vehicle market, while electric vehicle sales dropped by 3.3%. The steel production decline led to lower Inconel output, resulting in increased prices due to market scarcity. The data is derived from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).
Asia-Pacific
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Inconel in the APAC region showed a nuanced and diverse range of factors influencing the market. While there were some conventional influences such as supply and demand, other factors played a significant role as well. In Japan, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, the market situation was bearish with high supply and low demand. The oversupply of feedstock Nickel in regional warehouses and surplus inventories contributed to the decline in prices. Additionally, trade disruptions in the Suez Canal increased inventory levels in Japan, further impacting pricing. On the demand side, the construction and chemical sectors experienced a downturn, leading to reduced consumption of Inconel. However, there were also some positive indicators, such as the collaboration between Kobe Steel and China Baowu Steel Group for lightweight aluminium panels, which drove an increase in Inconel demand in Japan. This highlights the importance of Inconel in the expanding electric vehicle sector and presents growth opportunities for suppliers of this alloy. It's worth noting that there were no reported plant shutdowns during this period. Overall, the pricing trend for Inconel in Japan showed a decline from the same quarter last year, as well as a decrease compared to the last quarter of 2023.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Inconel in the Europe region exhibited a mixed trend, with fluctuations observed in Germany, where the market situation was most pronounced. While the conventional top influences such as supply and demand dynamics played a role, there were other factors that contributed to the price changes. In Germany, the overall trend was influenced by the growth of the construction industry, which drove up the demand for Inconel. However, supply constraints arose due to the surge in nickel prices, driven by geopolitical factors and market speculation. This led to challenges in meeting the high demand for Inconel, resulting in supply shortages and rising production costs. Additionally, trade disruptions through the Red Sea route affected export rates by over 3.1% increase in the Asian SHFE in February as well, which led to a notable increase in the price of Inconel. In terms of seasonality, the winter holidays and harsh weather conditions impacted demand from downstream sectors. The removal of subsidy support for electric vehicles in Germany also led to a decline in EV sales, affecting the demand for Inconel. Notably, Arvedi Acciai Speciali Terni announced a three-week production halt over the Christmas period, contributing to the pricing dynamics. The nuanced analysis of Inconel pricing dynamics in Q1 2024 reveals the complex interplay of various factors beyond the conventional influences, highlighting the impact of plant shutdowns, market situations, and specific events on pricing trends.
MEA
In Q1 2024, the Inconel pricing dynamics in the MEA region exhibited a nuanced picture beyond the conventional top influences. While there were several factors at play, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stood out with the most pronounced price fluctuations. The overall trend in the UAE market was driven by a surplus supply of nickel, resulting from an influx of low-cost Chinese imports. In January, the UAE's Inconel market faced an excess in supply influenced by strong nickel imports and global production increases, exacerbated by Talon Metals' findings in Australia and restructuring in BHP's operations. Trade disruptions extended delivery times, boosting UAE inventories. Concurrently, rising material and freight costs weakened purchasing power, causing a downturn in consumption across sectors, notably in construction, which saw reduced activity despite high building permit rates suggesting some resilience. By February, the situation intensified as China's significant 42.2% year-on-year increase in refined nickel production, despite a minor monthly decrease, combined with competitive pricing strategies from Indonesian exporters, led to an oversaturated market and declining Inconel prices. Coming to March, Saudi Arabia's Industrial Production Index from the General Authority for Statistics declined by 7.7% due to reduced mining activities, despite gains in manufacturing sectors like non-metallic products and basic metals, indicating mixed industrial activity strengths within the region. The Purchasing Managers' Index for Riyad Bank showed a slight economic slowdown but highlighted potential growth through heightened new orders and business activity.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the last quarter of 2023 (Q4), the Inconel market in North America experienced a significant declining trend amidst several factors that impacted prices. Initially, In October, Inconel prices in the US remained high due to increased demand from the chemical and automotive sectors, coupled with a limited supply of Steel Scraps and Nickel feedstock. Despite rising US bond yields and positive economic indicators, the EU and the US couldn't resolve a steel dispute. Metallurgical coke prices in India and China, along with South African non-coking coal prices, continued to rise. Reduced imports led to lower Inconel inventory in the US.
In November, Inconel prices declined due to increased production and decreased demand from downstream industries. Outokumpu's expansion plans boosted supply, and surpluses in feedstock persisted. Challenges in the Australian coal industry and a climate protest impacted market dynamics. The wind power sector is anticipated to surpass coal in electricity generation by 2026.
In December, Inconel prices remained low due to higher inventory levels and decreased demand, exacerbated by winter holidays, severe weather, and uncertainty about government policies, interest rates, and the electric vehicle sector. US Inconel industries redirected investments to China to counter cheaper imports, adjusting domestic prices for international competitiveness. The latest price for Inconel C-276 DEL Florida in the USA for the last quarter is USD 52410/MT.
Asia-Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Inconel market in the APAC region experienced a challenging period. At the start of Q4, Inconel prices in the Japanese spot market faced a downturn, attributed to sluggish market sentiment amid reduced demand in domestic Automotive and Chemical sectors. Despite rising metallurgical coke prices in India and China, and increased non-coking coal prices in South Africa, material supply remained stable, supporting growth in Japan's Automotive manufacturing. In November, Inconel costs declined due to increased supply and diminished end-use demand. Major steel manufacturers in Japan, including Daido Steel and JFE Steel, invested in new technologies and equipment, contributing to an oversupply of Inconel. Internationally, China re-examined anti-dumping measures, while neighboring nations like South Korea and Indonesia maintained robust Inconel supply. In December, Inconel prices further dropped due to reduced trading activity, weakened overseas demand, and excess supply in Japanese warehouses. Stainless Steel exports saw a continuous decline, exacerbated by disruptions in the Red Sea route and reduced demand in downstream automotive industries, influenced by Japan's overall industrial output decline. Trade disruptions and declining demand presented significant challenges for Japan's steel industry. The quarter-ending price of Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan was USD 43922/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Inconel market in Europe faced several challenges and factors that influenced prices. Firstly, In October 2023, the German spot market experienced a surge in Inconel prices, driven by increased demand from the automotive and chemical sectors and a decrease in raw material supply. Production rates declined, evident in reduced global and domestic inventories of steel scrap and Nickel pig iron. Claims of circumvention against stainless steel products from Turkey, Taiwan, and Vietnam were weak, indicating uncertainties surrounding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In November, Inconel prices in the German spot market declined due to reduced demand and oversupply. Global manufacturers maintained a competitive advantage in providing Nickel feedstock. Nornickel raised its global nickel surplus estimate, attributing it to consistent production and lower domestic buying rates. Downstream construction and infrastructure demand weakened as winter halted manufacturing. As 2023 ended, Inconel prices in the German spot market declined due to oversupply, reduced demand, and increased production costs. Concerns prompted Arvedi Acciai Speciali Terni to announce an extended production pause. The establishment of ArcelorMittal's Torero plant in Belgium addressed carbon emissions by converting waste wood into bio-coal. The withdrawal of German government subsidies for electric vehicles in December impacted EV sales and the Inconel sector. Traditional Inconel production faced diminishing demand, while the growth of green steel attracted buyers aiming to minimize their carbon footprint. The latest price for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Werdohl in Germany at the end of the quarter is USD 36854/MT.
MEA
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Inconel market in the Middle East and Africa region experienced several key factors that influenced prices. Firstly, In October, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) experienced a decline in Inconel spot market prices due to reduced import costs from the Asian market and decreased domestic demand. The export ban on steel and stainless-steel scrap was extended until December 2023, emphasizing the role of waste in stainless-steel production. In November, Inconel prices in the UAE dropped further, influenced by diminished downstream demand, excess supply, and lower feedstock prices. Australian coal production increase and a climate change protest affecting shipping operations also played a role. December saw steady Inconel prices in the UAE spot market, supported by ample supply despite trade disruptions in the Red Sea route. Concerns arose due to reduced imports from Asian manufacturers after attacks by the Houthi Rebel group. Stagnant demand in downstream industries persisted amid uncertainties in trade rates and macroeconomic factors. The latest price for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Dubai in the United Arab Emirates was USD 42842/MT.
