For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Inconel market experienced a challenging period characterized by decreasing prices. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. Despite a 5% rise in nickel prices, Inconel prices in the region saw a 1% decrease, reflecting the impact of external economic pressures.
The manufacturing sector faced contraction, leading to subdued demand for specialty alloys like Inconel. Mixed signals in construction spending and uncertainty surrounding interest rate cuts further dampened market growth prospects. Within the USA, the market exhibited the most significant price changes, with prices falling in the quarter. Supply dynamics in the country faced surplus pressures, leading to discounted older inventory and pricing adjustments. While production levels remained solid, the oversupply situation created challenges for manufacturers.
Demand, although stable in critical sectors, faced headwinds from economic uncertainties and reduced purchasing activities. The quarter recorded a 2% price drop between the first and second half, reflecting ongoing market fragility. The quarter ended with Alloy 600 Sheet priced at USD 49090/MT DEL Florida, signalling a persisting negative pricing environment in the Inconel market. No plant shutdowns were observed during this quarter.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3 2024, the Inconel market in the APAC region experienced a decline in prices, influenced by various factors. Reduced demand and surplus supply played a significant role in driving prices down. The stability of nickel prices and fluctuations in key raw materials like nickel and chromium further contributed to the downward pressure on market prices.
Additionally, challenges in the steel industry, such as low demand and excess supply, added to the negative pricing environment. The quarter also saw disruptions in production, with some plants experiencing shutdowns, impacting the overall supply chain. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes during the quarter. The market trends in Japan reflected the overall decreasing sentiment, with prices experiencing a negative trend. Seasonality and market correlations further exacerbated the price decline.
Comparing prices from the same quarter last year, there was a noticeable decrease. The quarter-on-quarter percentage change recorded a decrease of 3% and the comparison between the first and second half of the quarter indicated a 2% decrease. The quarter-ending price in Japan stood at USD 41593/MT for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Osaka, highlighting the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe Region witnessed a period of stable Inconel prices, characterized by consistent market conditions and minimal fluctuations. This stability was influenced by various factors, including resilient supply chains, steady demand from key industries, and controlled production costs. Despite facing challenges such as global economic uncertainties and supply chain disruptions, the Inconel market maintained a balanced pricing environment throughout the quarter.
In Germany, which experienced the most significant price changes in the region, the Inconel market mirrored the overall stable trend observed in Europe. The country's pricing dynamics were impacted by factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices, changing demand from sectors like aerospace and energy, and seasonal variations in industrial activities.
The percentage change from the same quarter last year indicated a consistency in pricing trends, while the recorded a 5% decline from the previous quarter highlighted minor adjustments in market conditions. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price variation, further emphasizing the overall stability in the German Inconel market. As the quarter concluded, the price for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Werdohl in Germany stood at USD 42218/MT, underscoring the prevailing stable pricing environment in the region. Despite occasional challenges, the quarter overall exhibited a positive sentiment with prices maintaining equilibrium and reflecting resilience in the face of external pressures.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Inconel pricing landscape in the MEA region experienced a notable decline, reflecting a negative sentiment across the market. Various factors contributed to this downward trend, including an oversupply of Inconel leading to lower spot market prices, volatile nickel prices impacting production costs, and reduced demand from key sectors like construction and automotive.
The excess supply of Inconel put downward pressure on prices, while nickel price fluctuations added to the cost challenges faced by producers. Demand constraints from sectors like construction and automotive further exacerbated the pricing decline, creating a challenging environment for Inconel pricing in the region.
In the United Arab Emirates specifically, the market saw the most significant price changes, with a recorded 9% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a further decline in prices. Despite stable supply dynamics, high inventory levels, and decreasing demand contributed to the negative price trend in the UAE. The quarter-ending price for Alloy 600 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali in the UAE stood at USD 31662/MT, highlighting the prevailing downward pricing trend in the region. No plant shutdowns were observed during the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, Inconel pricing in North America experienced substantial upward momentum, driven by a confluence of factors that created a bullish market environment. The imposition of sanctions on Russian raw materials, particularly nickel, aluminium, and copper, exacerbated supply constraints, leading to increased input costs. Additionally, operational difficulties in nickel mines in Brazil and New Caledonia further tightened supply, contributing to rising Inconel prices. Geopolitical tensions and logistical bottlenecks, such as the Red Sea crisis and drought conditions in the Panama Canal, resulted in higher shipping costs, which compounded the cost pressures on Inconel production.
In the USA, which saw the most significant price changes, the pricing environment was predominantly shaped by robust demand from the automotive and construction sectors. The rise in the US PMI Composite Output Index, indicating increased business activity and new orders, underscored strong domestic demand. Despite a notable decline in new export orders, domestic consumption remained high, with the Light Vehicle Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales (SAAR) for May 2024 showing considerable growth driven by SUV and truck sales. Overall, the trends indicated a consistent increase in Inconel prices, influenced by seasonal demand peaks and the ongoing supply chain challenges.
The price contrast between the first and second half of the quarter showed a significant increase, highlighting rising cost pressures and continued demand. The quarter-ending price for Alloy 600 Sheet DEL Florida in the USA stood at USD 52180/MT, highlighting a positive pricing environment throughout Q2 2024. The market's bullish sentiment underscored the interplay of limited supply, increasing production costs, and strong end-user demand, solidifying the upward trajectory in Inconel prices. No plant shutdowns were recorded during the quarter.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Inconel market in the APAC region experienced a relatively stable pricing environment, despite several influencing factors. The overall stability can be attributed to a balanced interplay of supply and demand forces. Key factors contributing to this equilibrium included geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating shipping costs, which collectively maintained a steady state in the market. The consistent demand from the automotive and industrial sectors underscored the resilience of Inconel pricing amidst external pressures.
In Japan, notable fluctuations were observed, driven primarily by operational issues in nickel mines in Brazil and New Caledonia, along with geopolitical tensions impacting nickel stockpiles. The absence of significant plant shutdowns ensured a steady production flow, even as manufacturers navigated increased shipping costs due to disruptions like the Red Sea crisis. Seasonality also played a role, with strategic government spending on infrastructure projects contributing to sustained demand.
When compared to the same quarter last year, there was a change in prices from the previous quarter, indicating a slight increase in market activities. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter remained steady, further emphasizing the stable trend. Concluding the quarter, the price of Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan stood at USD 43084/MT. Overall, the pricing environment for Inconel in Q2 2024 has been stable, reflecting a balanced market sentiment despite external and seasonal pressures.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Inconel market experienced a notable decline in prices, influenced by various significant factors. The market was characterized by high inventory levels, slow demand, and increased production costs, which collectively contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Despite rising feedstock costs for nickel and chromium, sluggish demand in downstream sectors and a generally weak economic sentiment exacerbated the situation. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions added further complexity, notably impacting shipping costs due to longer transit times and heightened sea freight rates.
Focusing on Germany, which witnessed the most substantial price changes, the situation was particularly pronounced. The country's economic challenges, including expensive energy and reduced activity in core industries like construction and automotive, led to decreased optimism and job cuts. The construction sector saw a continuous decline in new orders and project delays, while the automotive industry recorded a significant drop in new passenger car registrations. The interplay of these elements led to a notable decrease from the previous quarter and a significant fall in prices when comparing the first and second half of the quarter.
Overall, the pricing environment for Inconel in Germany was decidedly negative, with the quarter-ending price for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Werdohl recorded at USD 42,778/MT. The market dynamics indicated a continued bearish trend, driven by an imbalance between supply and demand and exacerbated by broader economic and geopolitical challenges. This consistent declining sentiment underscores the need for strategic adjustments within the industry to navigate these challenging conditions effectively.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Inconel market in the MEA region exhibited a stable pricing environment, driven by multiple factors that influenced market prices. Geopolitical tensions and operational disruptions at nickel mines in Brazil and New Caledonia contributed to supply constraints, leading to increased material costs for battery and stainless-steel production. Additionally, logistical challenges, including higher sea freight rates and the Red Sea crisis, exacerbated cost pressures. Despite these disruptions, the overall sentiment remained stable due to balanced supply and demand dynamics.
Focusing on the United Arab Emirates, the market experienced the most significant price changes within the region. The UAE's Purchasing Managers' Index remained constant, reflecting stable economic conditions despite input cost increases and supply chain constraints. The construction sector saw a notable workforce increase, which, coupled with high inventory levels, maintained demand dynamics. The correlation between industrial production growth and Inconel pricing underscored a stable trend, with minor fluctuations attributed to seasonal factors and robust infrastructure project pipelines.
When comparing the first and second halves of the quarter, the price change stayed consistent, suggesting market stability. However, prices decreased from the previous quarter of 2024, showing a controlled environment amid fluctuating global factors. The latest quarter-ending price for Alloy 600 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali in the UAE was USD 34,913/MT. Overall, despite external disruptions and internal pressures, the Inconel pricing in the UAE and the broader MEA region has maintained a stable stance, reflecting a positive sentiment towards future market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the Inconel pricing dynamics in the North America region, particularly in the USA, were influenced by various factors beyond the conventional top three. The market situation in the USA was characterized as bearish, with high supply and low demand. The oversupply of nickel, driven by low-cost production in Indonesia, resulted in a significant drop in nickel prices and disrupted the market balance.
This surplus of nickel led to price volatility and concerns about the profitability of nickel production, impacting the manufacturing cost of Inconel. In terms of demand, the US market experienced a significant drop, aligned with challenging patterns in the domestic structural steel sector and weak demand from the automotive and infrastructure industries. The reduction in profitability for steel producers from the nickel surplus also affected the cost and availability of nickel, a key component in Inconel production.
But in March 2024, the US witnessed a 5.5% growth in the new light vehicle market, while electric vehicle sales dropped by 3.3%. The steel production decline led to lower Inconel output, resulting in increased prices due to market scarcity. The data is derived from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).
Asia-Pacific
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Inconel in the APAC region showed a nuanced and diverse range of factors influencing the market. While there were some conventional influences such as supply and demand, other factors played a significant role as well. In Japan, where price fluctuations were most pronounced, the market situation was bearish with high supply and low demand. The oversupply of feedstock Nickel in regional warehouses and surplus inventories contributed to the decline in prices. Additionally, trade disruptions in the Suez Canal increased inventory levels in Japan, further impacting pricing. On the demand side, the construction and chemical sectors experienced a downturn, leading to reduced consumption of Inconel. However, there were also some positive indicators, such as the collaboration between Kobe Steel and China Baowu Steel Group for lightweight aluminium panels, which drove an increase in Inconel demand in Japan. This highlights the importance of Inconel in the expanding electric vehicle sector and presents growth opportunities for suppliers of this alloy. It's worth noting that there were no reported plant shutdowns during this period. Overall, the pricing trend for Inconel in Japan showed a decline from the same quarter last year, as well as a decrease compared to the last quarter of 2023.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Inconel in the Europe region exhibited a mixed trend, with fluctuations observed in Germany, where the market situation was most pronounced. While the conventional top influences such as supply and demand dynamics played a role, there were other factors that contributed to the price changes. In Germany, the overall trend was influenced by the growth of the construction industry, which drove up the demand for Inconel. However, supply constraints arose due to the surge in nickel prices, driven by geopolitical factors and market speculation. This led to challenges in meeting the high demand for Inconel, resulting in supply shortages and rising production costs. Additionally, trade disruptions through the Red Sea route affected export rates by over 3.1% increase in the Asian SHFE in February as well, which led to a notable increase in the price of Inconel. In terms of seasonality, the winter holidays and harsh weather conditions impacted demand from downstream sectors. The removal of subsidy support for electric vehicles in Germany also led to a decline in EV sales, affecting the demand for Inconel. Notably, Arvedi Acciai Speciali Terni announced a three-week production halt over the Christmas period, contributing to the pricing dynamics. The nuanced analysis of Inconel pricing dynamics in Q1 2024 reveals the complex interplay of various factors beyond the conventional influences, highlighting the impact of plant shutdowns, market situations, and specific events on pricing trends.
MEA
In Q1 2024, the Inconel pricing dynamics in the MEA region exhibited a nuanced picture beyond the conventional top influences. While there were several factors at play, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stood out with the most pronounced price fluctuations. The overall trend in the UAE market was driven by a surplus supply of nickel, resulting from an influx of low-cost Chinese imports. In January, the UAE's Inconel market faced an excess in supply influenced by strong nickel imports and global production increases, exacerbated by Talon Metals' findings in Australia and restructuring in BHP's operations. Trade disruptions extended delivery times, boosting UAE inventories. Concurrently, rising material and freight costs weakened purchasing power, causing a downturn in consumption across sectors, notably in construction, which saw reduced activity despite high building permit rates suggesting some resilience. By February, the situation intensified as China's significant 42.2% year-on-year increase in refined nickel production, despite a minor monthly decrease, combined with competitive pricing strategies from Indonesian exporters, led to an oversaturated market and declining Inconel prices. Coming to March, Saudi Arabia's Industrial Production Index from the General Authority for Statistics declined by 7.7% due to reduced mining activities, despite gains in manufacturing sectors like non-metallic products and basic metals, indicating mixed industrial activity strengths within the region. The Purchasing Managers' Index for Riyad Bank showed a slight economic slowdown but highlighted potential growth through heightened new orders and business activity.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the last quarter of 2023 (Q4), the Inconel market in North America experienced a significant declining trend amidst several factors that impacted prices. Initially, In October, Inconel prices in the US remained high due to increased demand from the chemical and automotive sectors, coupled with a limited supply of Steel Scraps and Nickel feedstock. Despite rising US bond yields and positive economic indicators, the EU and the US couldn't resolve a steel dispute. Metallurgical coke prices in India and China, along with South African non-coking coal prices, continued to rise. Reduced imports led to lower Inconel inventory in the US.
In November, Inconel prices declined due to increased production and decreased demand from downstream industries. Outokumpu's expansion plans boosted supply, and surpluses in feedstock persisted. Challenges in the Australian coal industry and a climate protest impacted market dynamics. The wind power sector is anticipated to surpass coal in electricity generation by 2026.
In December, Inconel prices remained low due to higher inventory levels and decreased demand, exacerbated by winter holidays, severe weather, and uncertainty about government policies, interest rates, and the electric vehicle sector. US Inconel industries redirected investments to China to counter cheaper imports, adjusting domestic prices for international competitiveness. The latest price for Inconel C-276 DEL Florida in the USA for the last quarter is USD 52410/MT.
Asia-Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Inconel market in the APAC region experienced a challenging period. At the start of Q4, Inconel prices in the Japanese spot market faced a downturn, attributed to sluggish market sentiment amid reduced demand in domestic Automotive and Chemical sectors. Despite rising metallurgical coke prices in India and China, and increased non-coking coal prices in South Africa, material supply remained stable, supporting growth in Japan's Automotive manufacturing. In November, Inconel costs declined due to increased supply and diminished end-use demand. Major steel manufacturers in Japan, including Daido Steel and JFE Steel, invested in new technologies and equipment, contributing to an oversupply of Inconel. Internationally, China re-examined anti-dumping measures, while neighboring nations like South Korea and Indonesia maintained robust Inconel supply. In December, Inconel prices further dropped due to reduced trading activity, weakened overseas demand, and excess supply in Japanese warehouses. Stainless Steel exports saw a continuous decline, exacerbated by disruptions in the Red Sea route and reduced demand in downstream automotive industries, influenced by Japan's overall industrial output decline. Trade disruptions and declining demand presented significant challenges for Japan's steel industry. The quarter-ending price of Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan was USD 43922/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Inconel market in Europe faced several challenges and factors that influenced prices. Firstly, In October 2023, the German spot market experienced a surge in Inconel prices, driven by increased demand from the automotive and chemical sectors and a decrease in raw material supply. Production rates declined, evident in reduced global and domestic inventories of steel scrap and Nickel pig iron. Claims of circumvention against stainless steel products from Turkey, Taiwan, and Vietnam were weak, indicating uncertainties surrounding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). In November, Inconel prices in the German spot market declined due to reduced demand and oversupply. Global manufacturers maintained a competitive advantage in providing Nickel feedstock. Nornickel raised its global nickel surplus estimate, attributing it to consistent production and lower domestic buying rates. Downstream construction and infrastructure demand weakened as winter halted manufacturing. As 2023 ended, Inconel prices in the German spot market declined due to oversupply, reduced demand, and increased production costs. Concerns prompted Arvedi Acciai Speciali Terni to announce an extended production pause. The establishment of ArcelorMittal's Torero plant in Belgium addressed carbon emissions by converting waste wood into bio-coal. The withdrawal of German government subsidies for electric vehicles in December impacted EV sales and the Inconel sector. Traditional Inconel production faced diminishing demand, while the growth of green steel attracted buyers aiming to minimize their carbon footprint. The latest price for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Werdohl in Germany at the end of the quarter is USD 36854/MT.
MEA
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Inconel market in the Middle East and Africa region experienced several key factors that influenced prices. Firstly, In October, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) experienced a decline in Inconel spot market prices due to reduced import costs from the Asian market and decreased domestic demand. The export ban on steel and stainless-steel scrap was extended until December 2023, emphasizing the role of waste in stainless-steel production. In November, Inconel prices in the UAE dropped further, influenced by diminished downstream demand, excess supply, and lower feedstock prices. Australian coal production increase and a climate change protest affecting shipping operations also played a role. December saw steady Inconel prices in the UAE spot market, supported by ample supply despite trade disruptions in the Red Sea route. Concerns arose due to reduced imports from Asian manufacturers after attacks by the Houthi Rebel group. Stagnant demand in downstream industries persisted amid uncertainties in trade rates and macroeconomic factors. The latest price for Alloy 600 Sheet Ex Dubai in the United Arab Emirates was USD 42842/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the third quarter of the year, the price trend for Inconel in the USA saw a notable decline. This price drop can be attributed to several key factors affecting the market. Firstly, there was a decrease in demand for Inconel due to rising interest rates and a lack of job opportunities in the chemical industry. This decline in demand was particularly evident in the chemical industry, which experienced a slight downturn but is expected to recover by the end of the quarter. Furthermore, the world's largest chemical producer, BASF, faced challenges due to a shortage of skilled labor in its US plants. This labor shortage reduced Inconel production and usage within the chemical industry. To address this issue, BASF initiated a training program. In addition to labor shortages, the surplus supply of nickel, a raw material for Inconel, in the US spot market contributed to a pessimistic market sentiment. The increase in federal interest rates also led to a withdrawal of large Inconel orders from the market. Overall, the combination of reduced demand, labor shortages, surplus nickel supply, and rising interest rates created a challenging market environment for Inconel in the USA during the third quarter, causing prices to decline.
Asia-Pacific
In July, Japan's Inconel market witnessed a price decline attributed to an oversupply of nickel in the local spot market and reduced overseas demand. The oversupply was a result of increased mining activities in South Africa and Australia, which led to an abundance of nickel commodities. Local Japanese warehouses saw a surge in domestic nickel stocks due to a long-term supply agreement between Australian firm Adrea Resources and Japanese companies like Mitsubishi Corporation, Sumitomo Metal Mining, and Mitsui & Co. This agreement was linked to the Kalgoorlie Nickel Project's development in Australia, aimed at benefiting downstream Japanese industries. Furthermore, UK-based company Altilium, specializing in nickel recovery from scrap vehicles, signed contracts with Japanese firm Marubeni Corp., adding to the nickel oversupply. Simultaneously, decreased demand from local and foreign automotive and construction companies, driven by economic uncertainties, contributed to lower consumption. However, by mid-Q3, Japanese Inconel prices started to rise due to increased downstream inquiries. This upward trend was supported by a slowdown in Japan's wholesale inflation in August, offering relief to consumers. Overall, during this period, the Inconel market in Japan exhibited a combination of supply-driven fluctuations and inflationary pressures.
Europe
Inconel prices in Germany exhibited a significant uptrend during the third quarter, driven by multiple key factors. A surge in demand, particularly in the northern regions, ignited bullish sentiment within the market. New agreements struck within the German spot market further fueled this heightened demand. One noteworthy deal involved Linde, a prominent European chemical company, partnering with the Brazilian government to secure a substantial supply of renewable energy. This development is set to boost chemical manufacturing activities, consequently increasing the demand for Inconel, which is essential for heat exchangers. Moreover, the Berling Gas Project, secured by OMV (Norge), contributed to the rising demand for Inconel due to its corrosion-resistant properties, crucial for challenging environmental conditions. Locally controlled stock releases also drew significant attention from major market players, further intensifying the Inconel market in Germany. Downstream chemical industries placed substantial orders, fueled by growing optimism in the market. Additionally, external factors played a role in this price surge, including investigations by the European Commission into anti-dumping measures on stainless steel imports. High demand persisted, especially from sectors such as hydrogen fuel and marine, driven by clean energy initiatives and infrastructure development, sustaining the upward price trajectory.
MEA
During the third quarter in the UAE, Inconel prices exhibited a notable upward trajectory. This ascent followed a modest uptick in the latter part of the second quarter, as local stainless steel mills maintained their pricing in the face of reduced demand and heightened competition from imports. Economic uncertainty within the United Arab Emirates generated concerns about a potential deceleration in the manufacturing sector, with customers becoming increasingly cautious due to mounting living expenses and elevated interest rates. Consequently, attention shifted towards the services sector, which faced more persistent inflationary pressures. Despite these economic uncertainties, domestic factory sales continued their decline, instilling caution among buyers. Nevertheless, mid-Q3 witnessed signs of an upswing in Inconel prices, propelled by heightened production levels and an influx of new business opportunities, albeit with demand easing from its peak in the second quarter. This newfound optimism spurred increased procurement and job creation, though selling prices remained discounted. Furthermore, there were significant regional developments, as Türkiye and Saudi Arabia inked a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on critical minerals, technology, solar panels, and electric vehicles. Saudi Arabia's growing interest in renewable energy sources such as hydrogen, wind, and solar power played a pivotal role in solidifying this agreement.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the second quarter of 2023, Inconel prices in the US market showed a downward trend despite the April-May prices. At the beginning of the second quarter, the price trend increased for several reasons, such as the reopening of the Chinese economy and stronger than expected industrial growth in Europe and the United States. These factors boosted demand for Inconel's early-stage buildings and construction equipment, along with a correction in the US dollar, which boosted demand. Uncertainty in the global economy due to the Russian-Ukrainian war and interest rates from the US central bank outweighed positive demand and limited price increases. Geopolitical headwinds affected the metals complex, leading to a volatile trading year and ending in negative returns. According to market participants, the current market dynamics in the United States are full of uncertainty due to the apparent slowdown in the European and American economies. On the other hand, in the second quarter, the price of Inconel will begin to decline, as US stainless steel mills continue to keep sales prices flat due to slowing demand and increased import competition. Businesses report that customers are increasingly reluctant to spend as the cost-of-living rises, interest rates rise, concerns about the economic outlook grow and spending shifts to services. Factory prices for premium alloys barely rose in June as reports of markdowns mounted, suggesting an almost complete collapse of inflationary pressures in the goods manufacturing sector.
Asia- Pacific
In the Japanese market, Inconel prices increased in the second quarter of 2023 due to fluctuations in nickel raw materials and stable demand from the chemical industry. Japan's manufacturing environment reflected ongoing challenges and the need to monitor economic conditions and demand trends. Overall, inflationary pressures remained high, but input prices rose more slowly. Manufacturers tried to protect profit margins by passing on higher costs to customers, leading to an acceleration of wage inflation. The price increase in May was due to the disruption of the supply chain against the background of stable secondary demand from the chemical industry. Dark ore prices reported by traders and domestic smelters varied. On the demand side, Inconel spot suppliers reduced their bids to win deals due to limited demand in foreign markets and growth in social shares. Market participants said the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy extremely easy on Friday despite stronger-than-expected inflation, indicating it remains on the sidelines among global central banks and is focused on supporting a fragile economic recovery. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its first policy meeting under new president Kazuo Ueda in April and its second in June. There was no change in policy, suggesting that their brutality would continue. Although the BoJ has maintained its cautious stance on continued inflation and wage growth in Japan, macroeconomic indicators continue to point to stable developments.
Europe
On the German market, Inconel prices remained unchanged and stable in the second quarter of 2023. On the supply side, the balance between production capacity and market demand led to a stable price. On the demand side, small fluctuations in Inconel prices point to relatively flat demand in key industries such as chemical, aerospace and oil and gas. The steady demand for Inconel products in these sectors has offset any price fluctuations. At the same time, Inconel prices turned north in May, driven by fluctuations in the price of feedstock nickel, as inquiries from the chemical downstream industry increased. According to the major players, the lack of supply is the most important factor supporting the increase in the price of raw materials. Economic uncertainty has been cited as the reason for price fluctuations, which has led to improved cost efficiency for end users. European stainless-steel mills are believed to have operated at significantly reduced prices in the second quarter due to weak demand and low prices. The work is quiet in all countries, customers order only one after the other or not at all. Lower consumption forces factories to cut production to balance supply and demand. Market sentiment remains gloomy. In addition to the decrease in supply, the stabilization of stainless-steel scrap prices contributed to the convergence of stainless-steel prices to the bottom.
MEA
In the United Arab Emirates market, Inconel prices rose in April due to fluctuations in raw material prices against the backdrop of increased inflationary pressure. Inconel prices rose in April, market participants said, pointing to faster growth in the non-oil economy, driven by rapid growth in new orders and easing inflationary pressures. Growing demand and rapid capacity improvements boosted confidence in future operations. The strong growth of new businesses underlined the confidence of companies to respond to the economic outlook. In the second quarter of the second quarter, Inconel prices rose at the end of the second quarter as downstream companies, such as chemical equipment manufacturers, increased their purchasing activity due to significant increases in workload and inventory replenishment. UAE traders are increasingly turning to the market leader for price consistency and stability. The ability of businesses to secure increasing volumes of new business remained unchanged in June, as new job growth accelerated to a four-year high. However, some of this growth is projected based on discounts offered to customers, which may not be sustainable in the long term as input costs rise. According to key players, the non-oil private sector remained on a strong footing mid-year and has good conditions for continued growth in the second half of 2023.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the US market witnessed stagnancy in Inconel prices due to fluctuating raw material prices and dwindling market sentiments. In January, spot market premiums for nickel products were mixed, with briquette premiums in both regions falling due to a shift in sentiment. Market participants reported that firms raised market prices consistently again in February in an attempt to pass on the rising premiums to customers. This improvement was aided by a significant decrease in the amount of input purchased by manufacturers. As the supply of purchases and finished products decreased, companies opted to mitigate rather than increase their inventories. In March, rising interest rates by the Fed and escalating worries of an economic recession raised concerns among market players. Despite stable demand, the future of the Inconel market in the US is uncertain due to high-interest rates and squeezed credit lines. The global market is highly competitive, with fewer imports and exports, leading to stiff competition. The market outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain. The prices of Alloy 600 Sheet and Alloy 625 Sheet for Ex Florida (USA) settled at USD 86694/MT and USD 136140/MT, respectively.
Asia Pacific
The Japanese Inconel market had a mixed sentiment in the first quarter of 2023, which was caused by fluctuating raw material prices and an uncertain demand outlook. The market remained stable in January and February due to lower production during the year-end festivities, which kept the alloy price unchanged since December. While the regional raw material and Inconel markets displayed upward momentum, Inconel prices remained largely stable month over month due to weak activity in Japan. However, in March, the prices of Inconel decreased due to falling prices of raw materials, nickel, and chromium, and a reduction in downstream propeller blades and motors. The operating rate of Inconel was historically low, but there was potential to increase production in the future, and the supply side was not heavily influencing prices. The recovery of the real estate and manufacturing sectors was expected to lead to a sharp rebound in terminal demand in the long term. The Alloy 600 Sheet, Alloy 601 Sheet, and Alloy 625 Sheet for Ex Osaka (Japan) settled at USD 54829/MT, USD 51088/MT, and USD 74838/MT.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2023, the European Inconel market experienced an upward momentum in prices, driven by fluctuating raw material nickel costs and downstream inquiries. While there was moderate demand in Q1, raw material prices increased, pushing up alloy prices. Meanwhile, chromium and manganese demand increased in response to overseas orders, causing prices to rise. High prices and tightening financial conditions continued to put pressure on demand, despite the seasonal decrease in demand and stabilization of the situation in the energy market. However, several factors in the global market triggered a significant price increase in the noble ferroalloys segment, primarily molybdenum, and vanadium. In the Inconel market, lower energy costs, rising raw material prices, and significantly lower demand dominated the market, with prices experiencing more speculation. Market participants were optimistic, though, with recent announcements from several European plants restarting furnaces that could increase raw material
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
In the US market, the Inconel prices showcased a stagnancy in the price trend in the final quarter of 2022 owing to the fluctuating upstream Nickel prices and limited demand outlook. According to several market participants, nickel trading activity recovery depended on the market opening up to arbitrage trading. In November, the LME decided to keep things as they were. The supply of raw materials for moly ingot was insufficient; demand in China was extremely high, particularly in December. While there were some stocks of molybdenum oxide and Ferro molybdenum in Europe, due to these being more liquid markets with more trade, inventories of moly ingot in European warehouses remain critically low. There was a supply shortage in 2022, with downstream consumers reporting that there was less material available from China. Because there was no available material on the ground, some people flew material from China.
Asia Pacific
In the final quarter of 2022, the Inconel prices market remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2022 in their price trend in the Chinese market, owing to a stable supply and demand outlook. In the downstream market, demand for Inconel had increased due to frequent positive developments in the new energy industry chain. According to market participants, the market entered the off-season in November, and the market's potential negative effects began to emerge. That is, there was concern about excess due to the high output of Inconel. International molybdenum price volatility has influenced sentiment in the domestic molybdenum market. Some mining companies and traders actively sold, easing the supply of raw materials. Despite this, the majority of mining companies were holding back cargo in anticipation of price increases. The supply of molybdenum raw materials is currently relatively stable. As the year comes to a close, Inconel prices have risen due to the positive impact of downstream stainless steel enterprises' stock preparation for the festival, as well as the stimulus of favorable macroeconomic policies.
Europe
During the final quarter of 2022, the Inconel prices showcased a persistent rising trend in the European market, owing to rising inflationary pressures and a consistent downstream demand outlook. According to market participants, service centers, brokers, and master distributors were still well-stocked. Many businesses continued to take aggressive measures to move inventory. Buyers' demand from the downstream sector has increased. The Nickel market interpreted the more startling inflation data as a possible stepping stone toward a slower pace of future interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, which, combined with subsequent dollar weakness, sent prices soaring by the end of the quarter. Firms' decision to work through excess inventories built earlier in the year was influenced by weak demand conditions, with pre-production inventories falling sharply and finished goods stocks remaining broadly unchanged month on month. As 2022 came to a close, Inconel's manufacturing sector performed poorly, with output and new orders contracting at a rapid pace.
For The Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter, Inconel prices in the US market slightly increased as firms reduced operating capacity in response to declining demand. According to market participants, the US economy deteriorated noticeably in Q3 as company activity declined in both the industrial and service sectors. With the exception of pandemic lockdown months, the overall drop in output was the largest since the global financial crisis, indicating that the economy will most likely contract for a third consecutive quarter. Higher interest rates, combined with ongoing inflation, have trickled down to the consumer sector. Supply of Inconel outstripped the available demand in the US market. The problem with adding new capacity is expanding at a rate two to three times faster than demand. Maintenance shutdowns have been ineffective in their efforts to offset the declining prices. While, continuously falling import prices may compensate for lower domestic supply in the coming months. Therefore, the Alloy 600 and Alloy 625 prices for Ex Florida (USA) at USD 91200/MT and USD 126760/MT.
Asia Pacific
During the third quarter of 2022, the Inconel price witnessed an up-swinging trend in the Asian market. According to market participants, the Indian market has stable to moderate demand inquiries. However, there was no discernible improvement in purchasing interest, and both domestic and export orders were weak. Due to high inventories held by producers, sentiment in the Indian ferroalloys market remained negative. However, due to a lack of supply, some major producers have increased their offers but have yet to find market acceptance. Since chrome ore prices have fallen, small-scale buyers have been deferring purchases in anticipation of a lower price in the next round of purchase tenders from major stainless-steel manufacturers. Buyers with depleted inventories booked even small quantities to ensure that production could continue. Thus, the Alloy 600 and Alloy 601 prices for Ex Shanghai (China) settled at USD 33680/MT and 32020/MT.
Europe
In the European market, the Inconel prices witnessed an unprecedented surge in the third quarter despite falling demand. The seasonal decline in business activity in Europe and the United States and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties have been putting pressure on the nickel market. There has been little purchasing activity in the domestic market. Despite this, Inconel prices have risen as European buyers seek Inconel imports from Japanese players. Participants anticipated that the Inconel prices would rise amid high costs while producers expected to continue operating at low capacity. As production levels drop, German steel producers and traders expect prices to see upward momentum over August amid low supply. Despite sluggish demand during Europe's summer vacations, production levels were lower than usual for the season. Due to rising energy costs, mills were eager to establish higher pricing on product margins going into Q4. Thus, the Alloy 600 Sheet and Alloy 601 Sheet prices for Ex Werdohl (Germany) settled at USD 37300/MT and USD 36830/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During the second quarter of 2022, Inconel prices in the United States exhibited a spiraling trend, owing primarily to raw material shortages, particularly nickel-chromium and molybdenum, and a limited supply chain amid ongoing geopolitical events. Inconel prices varied significantly across regions due to higher freight costs and limited import options. According to market participants, raw material price inflation in the United States unexpectedly increased in May, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Furthermore, reduced production activity in the regional market resulted from reduced production and new orders added to the work backlog. Meanwhile, the rate of cost inflation has accelerated, with firms passing on higher costs to buyers in the form of production charges. As a result, the prices of Alloy 600 and Alloy 625 for Ex Florida settled at USD 105990/MT and USD 121540/MT, respectively.
Asia Pacific
In the Asian market, Inconel prices were mixed during the second quarter of 2022, owing to supply chain disruptions and the relaxation of stringent COVID lockdown and control measures. This rising infection among miners has heightened fears of a labor shortage. Domestic market participants claimed that the strict lockdown measures and soaring raw material prices in the global market, combined with the ongoing hostility in Ukraine, were the primary factors driving this uptrend in April. Furthermore, a rise in the US dollar index due to Fed interest rate hikes and an upsurge in demand for the US dollar owing to the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war resulted in a significant drop in export volume in May and June. As a result, the Ex Shanghai prices for Alloy 600, Alloy 601, and Alloy 625 settled at USD 37200/MT, USD 35600/MT, and USD 39500/MT, respectively.
MEA
In the second quarter of 2022, the Inconel prices in the United Arab Emirates witnessed an uptrend due to the severe volatility in raw materials prices associated with the broadened demand-supply gap. Inconel prices have risen since the first quarter due to strong demand from downstream industries such as jet engine exhausts, flare stacks, and chemical plant equipment. All non-essential cargo resources to and from Russia have been hampered until further notice as a result of Russia's invasion and subsequent sanctions on Russian raw materials imposed by Western nations and critical stakeholders; this has forced nickel consumers in those markets to avoid Russian raw materials and metal, creating a grappling condition for alternative supply quotations. Meanwhile, purchasing activity has slowed, partly due to companies reducing inventories rather than purchasing new materials due to increased spending prudence. As a result, the Ex Dubai prices for Alloy 600, Alloy 601, and Alloy 626 were USD 39620/MT, USD 38400/MT, and USD 48000/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Inconel prices in the US market increased slightly during the first quarter of 2022 due to raw material shortages, primarily nickel-chromium and molybdenum, and a limited supply chain amid ongoing geopolitical events. Inconel prices varied significantly across regions due to higher freight costs and limited import options. Despite low demand in the domestic market, Inconel prices increased because the market's shortage of molybdenum concentrate has been significantly alleviated. Currently, mills are working hard to reduce raw material prices, and the overall market is on hold. As a result, many market participants took a wait-and-see approach in the face of stagnant demand.
Asia
In Asia, the price of Inconel quotations witnessed a slightly increasing trajectory owing to the supply chain constraints amid increasing COVID-19 infection in China during the first quarter of 2022. This rising infection among workers has further raised fears of labour shortages in the mines. Additionally, the pandemic has prompted the Chinese authorities to implement strict restrictions and enforce lockdowns in major cities and ports. As per market participants, the first contraction in manufacturing activity was observed in March, reflecting the impact of widespread COVID-19 outbreaks in key cities, including Shanghai and Shenzhen. The Chinese steel production hub has further enforced lockdowns to curb the spread. The domestic market players proclaimed that the strict lockdown measures and the soaring raw materials prices in the global market amidst the ongoing hostility in Ukraine were the key factors that backed this uptrend. As a ripple effect, Alloy 600, Alloy 601, and Alloy 625 prices for Ex Shanghai settled at USD 39220/MT, USD 36345/MT, and USD 41250/MT during April.
Europe
Inconel prices in European nations rose during the first quarter of 2022 because of the reduced production activity caused by Russian troops encircling Ukraine. Furthermore, the severe supply disruption, rising crude oil and energy costs, soaring raw material prices, and increased demand fuelled this uptrend. In addition, the German Steel plants were adjusting to the bullish energy prices and the availability issues amid the transportation sit-downs, driven by the high fuel costs. However, market participants chose a wait-and-watch approach and conducted limited transactions at the end of March, avoiding restocking due to high prices. Eventually, German market participants anticipated rising Inconel prices, driven by supply-demand dynamics. As a ripple effect, the prices of Alloy 600, Alloy 601, and Alloy 625 for Ex Werdohl settled at USD 33200/MT, USD 32900/MT, and USD 34500/MT.
