For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Hydrogen market witnessed a significant shift in pricing dynamics, characterized by an upward trajectory. This increase in prices was primarily influenced by a combination of factors contributing to a bullish sentiment.
Supply disruptions, particularly due to weather-related incidents such as hurricanes, alongside strong export demand and fluctuating consumption patterns, played a crucial role in driving market prices higher. The market exhibited signs of tightening as demand surged, especially in the power generation and industrial sectors. This surge in demand, coupled with record exports and growing adoption in various sectors, supported the overall price trend.
Focusing specifically on the USA, the market experienced the most substantial price changes, reflecting the broader North American trend. Despite the negative percentage change from the same quarter last year and the previous quarter in 2024, the second half of the quarter saw a notable increase in prices. Overall, the pricing environment in Q3 2024 can be characterized as positive, with a clear trend of increasing prices across the North American region.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 in the APAC region witnessed a dynamic shift in Hydrogen pricing, marked by a notable increase in prices. Several key factors influenced market prices during this period. Growing geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and heightened global demand set the stage for rising Hydrogen prices. Additionally, increased industrial activity, seasonal fluctuations, and strategic stockpiling efforts further contributed to the upward price trend. Within China, the market experienced the most significant price changes, reflecting broader regional dynamics. Adequate supply from both domestic and international sources is effectively meeting the needs of the downstream industry, with stable factory inventories and a focus on consistent shipments. However, weak demand from downstream sectors has led to a subdued market environment. The correlation between supply and demand, coupled with seasonal variations, played a pivotal role in shaping pricing trends. Despite a year-on-year decrease, the quarter-on-quarter increase showcased a more positive trajectory. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating an increase, highlighted the evolving market conditions. China exemplified the overall bullish sentiment in the Hydrogen pricing environment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Hydrogen market in Europe witnessed a notable increase in prices, with various factors influencing this uptrend. Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and concerns about Russian gas supplies, played a significant role in driving prices higher. Additionally, escalating demand from regions like China and the Middle East led to a tightening market, impacting price dynamics. The quarter saw an increase from the previous quarter, reflecting the growing pressures on supply and demand. The market exhibited signs of tightening as demand surged, especially in the power generation and industrial sectors. This surge in demand, coupled with record exports and growing adoption in various sectors, supported the overall price trend. Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes, saw an increase in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. Despite a change from the same quarter last year, the recent surge in prices signals a shifting market landscape. The quarter-ending price for Hydrogen underlining the overall positive trajectory in pricing, driven by a combination of global factors and domestic market conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Hydrogen market experienced a pronounced rise in prices, driven by several significant factors. Foremost among these was an increase in prices of feedstock Natural gas and demand for Hydrogen, spurred by heightened temperatures necessitating extensive use of fertilizer and fuel sectors. The burgeoning global liquefied Hydrogen market also played a role, as increased exports tightened domestic supplies. Concurrently, robust industrial activity further elevated consumption levels, reinforcing the upward pressure on prices.
USA, the epicentre of these fluctuations, saw the most substantial price changes. The overall trend exhibited a clear upswing, influenced by both seasonality and sustained industrial demand. The correlation in price changes revealed a significant interdependence between weather patterns and consumption rates, with hotter-than-average conditions substantially driving prices higher.
This consistent upward pricing trend reflects a positive yet volatile environment, with market sentiment buoyed by strong demand fundamentals and supply-side constraints. Overall, the quarter has been characterized by a positive pricing environment, driven by a confluence of demand surges and production limitations, heralding continued vigilance in managing supply and demand equilibrium.
APAC
At beginning of Q2 2024 the prices of Hydrogen in Indian market have shown declining market trends. The APAC region experienced an overall upward trend in Hydrogen prices during Q2 2024, driven by several pivotal market factors. Key influences include heightened global economic recovery, anticipated rises in upstream crude oil prices, and increasing costs of feedstock natural gas. Additionally, industrial activity surged, particularly in the Asian market, contributing to elevated coal prices and, subsequently, higher production expenses. The onset of the holiday season in the European market further amplified demand, as international markets, including major APAC economies, entered a stocking mode. Focusing on India, which saw the most significant price fluctuations, the Hydrogen market exhibited notable volatility. The combination of improving downstream demand, particularly from the fuel and fertilizer industries, and ongoing inventory restocking efforts led to substantial price changes. The country's market dynamics were highly responsive to seasonal factors and global economic conditions, showcasing an increasing trend despite the preceding downturn. Compared to the same quarter last year, Hydrogen prices in India declined by 15%, reflecting the previous year's market softness. However, the quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8% in 2024 indicated a stabilizing yet gradually recovering market sentiment. The first half of the quarter saw a 7% price increase compared to the latter half, underscoring a consistent upward momentum. In summary, the APAC region, particularly India, faced a complex interplay of factors leading to an upward trajectory in Hydrogen prices throughout Q2 2024, marking a period of cautious but optimistic market recovery.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the European hydrogen market has experienced significant growth, driven by several critical factors that influenced market prices. Increased industrial application and heightened demand across various sectors have played a crucial role in propelling hydrogen prices upward. This quarter has seen a substantial rise in hydrogen adoption, particularly in industries focusing on clean energy and sustainable production processes. The reinforced regulatory frameworks promoting green energy transitions have also contributed, encouraging industries to shift towards hydrogen as an essential component in their operations. Focusing on the Netherlands, where the maximum price changes have been observed, the market has displayed a pronounced upward trend. This regional market's significant price surge can be attributed to robust demand dynamics and strategic industrial investments in hydrogen infrastructure. The Netherlands has seen consistent growth patterns, supported by seasonal increases in industrial activity and a favourable regulatory environment fostering hydrogen utilization. Overall, the Dutch market has mirrored the broader European uptrend, albeit with more pronounced fluctuations due to its pivotal role in the continent's hydrogen landscape. The price changes reflect a positive pricing environment, driven by sustained demand and strategic industrial shifts towards hydrogen-based solutions. This quarter's performance underscores the critical role hydrogen plays in advancing sustainable industrial practices and highlights the increasingly indispensable nature of this resource in Europe's energy transition.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the North American Hydrogen market displayed a lukewarm performance, marked by stable to declining prices compared to the same period last year. This softening can be linked to several factors. Firstly, abundant inventories coupled with weak demand, particularly from the fuel sector due to seasonal reasons, put downward pressure on prices. Additionally, stable energy costs and lower production expenses contributed to a stagnant market with lower prices.
The USA witnessed the most significant price changes, with a decline of 11% compared to the previous quarter. However, unlike the price drop, demand from the fuel sector remained steady, prompting consistent inquiries from downstream industries. The market also expects a price increase driven by restocking activities.
Looking ahead, analysts anticipate a rise in demand, especially from the fuel sector, potentially leading to more inquiries. Import prices, particularly from China, are also expected to hold firm, impacting production costs. Furthermore, the market foresees insufficient inventories amidst anticipated robust demand, potentially pushing prices higher.
In conclusion, the Q1 2024 North American Hydrogen market witnessed a negative pricing environment driven by factors like high inventories, subdued demand, and stable energy prices.
APAC
The pricing environment for Hydrogen in the APAC region in Q1 2024 has been declining overall. There have been several factors that influenced market prices during this quarter. In India, the prices of Hydrogen have shown declining trends, with no significant changes in market dynamics. This stability can be attributed to the weak cost support from the feedstock Natural Gas and the availability of ample inventories in the market. The demand from downstream industries, particularly in sectors like fertilizer and fuel, has remained low, limiting overall market growth. Additionally, the prices of imports from China have decreased, further suppressing market prices. Looking specifically at India, the prices of Hydrogen have exhibited stable trends throughout the quarter.
Demand from the downstream industry, particularly in the fertilizer sector, has remained subdued compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, there are expectations of a potential increase in prices due to escalating seasonal demand and a rise in feedstock natural gas prices.
In terms of seasonality, the demand for Hydrogen in the fertilizer industry is expected to pick up during the sowing season for Kharif crops. However, overall demand from the downstream industry is not anticipated to experience significant growth.
In conclusion, the pricing environment for Hydrogen in the APAC region, particularly in India, has been stable in Q1 2024. Factors such as weak demand from downstream industries and the availability of ample inventories have influenced market prices.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the European Hydrogen market faced a downturn due to surplus inventories, resulting in discounted prices, while the Netherlands showed potential for price increases. Despite subdued demand from most downstream industries, the fuel sector remained robust, indicating sustained demand. Anticipated increases in import costs, particularly from China, are expected to drive prices up in the Netherlands. Additionally, a resurgence of restocking activities and potential hikes in natural gas prices could raise production costs, with a projected supply gap tightening market condition. The pilot auction under the European Hydrogen Bank for renewable hydrogen production attracted 132 bids from projects across 17 European countries, far exceeding the €800 million budget provided by the Innovation Fund.
Lower electricity prices contributed to reduced production costs, which could create positive market development, but the continued high interest rate subdued the purchasing power of downstream industries' consumers.
Moreover, high inventory levels continue to suppress the Hydrogen market in Europe, painting a pessimistic long-term market outlook for the time being.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North America hydrogen market in Q4 2023 experienced several factors that impacted prices and market dynamics. Firstly, rising natural gas prices led to increased production costs, resulting in higher overall expenses for hydrogen production. Additionally, market inventories remained relatively low, leading to premium prices for hydrogen. The slow development of the market and regulatory framework, along with escalating costs, fostered negative market sentiments despite steady demand from the international market.
It is anticipated that hydrogen prices will soon decline. In terms of plant shutdowns, no major shutdowns were reported during this quarter.
Focusing specifically on the USA, hydrogen prices showed a bullish trend in Q4 2023. This was primarily influenced by elevated energy costs due to higher natural gas prices and increased investment activities.
The USA Department of Energy made significant strides in establishing a clean-hydrogen economy by selecting seven regional winners to receive funding for hydrogen hubs. While this diversified approach broadens the toolkit and provides reasons for optimism, it has drawn criticism for supporting hydrogen derived from methane with carbon capture. Analysing the price trends, the current quarter saw a 16% increase in hydrogen prices compared to the previous quarter. Furthermore, the price of hydrogen in the USA decreased by 22% compared to the same quarter last year. However, there were no significant price changes between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for hydrogen in the USA was USD 4830/MT FOB California.
Europe
The fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed significant developments in the European hydrogen market. Firstly, market sentiment was influenced by rising production costs due to the increase in natural gas prices. This led to higher overall expenses and premium prices for hydrogen. Secondly, the market experienced a slow development of the regulatory framework, causing negative sentiments among market participants. Lastly, despite a steady demand from the international market, the slow market development and escalating costs contributed to the anticipation of a decline in hydrogen prices. In the Netherlands, the market showed a bullish trend, driven by increased investments in the hydrogen sector and collaboration with other countries. Germany and the Netherlands signed declarations of intent to strengthen their collaboration in the hydrogen sector, focusing on infrastructure and import. Additionally, the Netherlands launched a subsidy scheme for smaller electrolysis projects, aiming to produce hydrogen with sustainable energy. These initiatives, along with a stable flow of imports, contributed to positive market sentiment in the country. The price of hydrogen PEM (Inc. Capex) DEL Rotterdam in the Netherlands for the current quarter is USD 7220/MT. This represents a percentage change of -62% compared to the same quarter last year and a percentage change of 11% from the previous quarter of 2023.
APAC
In Q4 2023, the hydrogen pricing landscape in the Asia Pacific region remained complex and fragmented. Hydrogen, existing in varied forms such as grey, blue, and green, had different pricing mechanisms. Grey hydrogen, dominant currently and produced from fossil fuels, had prices influenced by natural gas costs, varying across the region due to local gas prices and import dependencies. Blue hydrogen, produced with carbon capture and storage, had limited volumes and was priced considering both grey hydrogen production costs and CCS technology costs. Green hydrogen, in early stages and produced from renewable energy through electrolysis, was priced based on renewable energy costs, electrolyser efficiency, and infrastructure factors Key drivers included fluctuating natural gas prices impacting grey hydrogen, limited green hydrogen production capacity keeping prices relatively high, growing demand in sectors like steelmaking and fuel cell vehicles affecting prices, and government policies like subsidies and carbon pricing potentially influencing pricing dynamics. Regional variations were observed, with Japan and South Korea having high grey hydrogen prices due to fossil fuel dependence, China experiencing lower grey hydrogen prices due to large domestic natural gas production, and Australia having potential for cost-competitive green hydrogen but limited production infrastructure.
