For the Quarter Ending December 2025
APAC
• In India, the Hydrogen Price Index fell by 0.65% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply and steady demand.
• The average Hydrogen price for the quarter was approximately USD 358.00/MT, indicating muted volatility and firm refining demand.
• Hydrogen Spot Price remained range-bound across coastal hubs, supporting steady procurement amid balanced refinery and fertilizer demand.
• Hydrogen Price Forecast suggests limited near-term volatility as refinery throughput and import parity keep merchant offers anchored.
• Hydrogen Production Cost Trend shows modest upward pressure from imported LNG and administered gas ceiling adjustments impacting reformers.
• Hydrogen Demand Outlook remains stable with refining and fertilizer consumption anchoring volumes despite nascent green hydrogen uptake.
• Hydrogen Price Index stability reflected ample inventories, smooth terminals, and consistent offtake from export-oriented refineries.
• Operational reliability at major producers limited outages, keeping merchant supply available and mitigating sudden upward price pressure.
Why did the price of Hydrogen change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Balanced refinery throughput and steady fertilizer procurement kept hydrogen supply-demand near equilibrium, minimizing price movements.
• Imported LNG firmness and administered gas ceiling adjustments produced modest production cost pressure on reformers.
• Logistical constraints and truck-dependent bulk deliveries raised delivered costs, while inventories and berthing contained shortages.
North America
• In North America, the Hydrogen Price Index remained broadly stable during the quarter ending December 2025, reflecting balanced merchant supply and steady downstream demand.
• The regional hydrogen market experienced muted volatility, with contract-linked volumes dominating transactions and limiting spot-driven Price Index fluctuations.
• Hydrogen Spot Price activity stayed range-bound across the US Gulf Coast and Midwest hubs, supported by stable refinery hydrogen networks and fertilizer offtake.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast indicated limited short-term movement, as refinery operating rates and captive hydrogen integration continued to anchor merchant market availability.
• The Hydrogen Production Cost Trend showed mild upward pressure from natural gas input costs and maintenance-related operating expenses at steam methane reforming units.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook remained steady, supported by consistent refinery consumption, ammonia production, and industrial hydrogen use, while low-carbon hydrogen adoption stayed limited in scale.
• Adequate pipeline-linked inventories and reliable on-purpose production restricted any sharp Price Index movement during the quarter.
• Logistics conditions remained manageable, with stable pipeline flows and limited disruption from rail or truck-based hydrogen deliveries.
• Why did the price of Hydrogen change in December 2025 in North America?
• Stable refinery throughput and uninterrupted SMR operations kept hydrogen supply well-aligned with demand in December.
• Incremental increases in natural gas input costs exerted mild pressure on production economics but were largely absorbed by existing contracts.
• Sufficient merchant availability and disciplined spot procurement prevented any notable Price Index escalation toward year-end.
Europe
• In Europe, the Hydrogen Price Index remained largely range-bound through the quarter ending December 2025, reflecting cautious industrial demand and stable supply availability.
• Merchant hydrogen activity was dominated by contract deliveries, limiting spot market influence on the overall Price Index.
• Hydrogen Spot Price conditions stayed steady across Northwest Europe, supported by consistent refinery operations and industrial gas distribution networks.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast pointed to limited near-term volatility, as hydrogen demand from refining and chemicals remained stable amid subdued industrial output.
• The Hydrogen Production Cost Trend showed mild cost pressure from elevated power prices and natural gas volatility impacting reformer operating economics.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook remained stable, with refining and chemical applications offsetting slower momentum in hydrogen mobility and green hydrogen projects.
• Comfortable inventory positions and reliable producer operations helped cap Price Index movement across major European hubs.
• Logistics remained smooth, with pipeline infrastructure and regional storage availability minimizing delivery-related disruptions.
Why did the price of Hydrogen change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Stable refinery demand and consistent industrial consumption kept hydrogen supply-demand balanced during December.
• Energy input cost volatility raised production cost concerns but did not translate into immediate Price Index adjustments.
• Year-end slowdown in discretionary industrial procurement reduced spot market activity, keeping December price movement limited.
For the Quarter Ending September 2025
APAC
• In India, the Hydrogen Price Index fell by 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting balanced supply and demand.
• The average Hydrogen price for the quarter was approximately USD 333.67/MT, reflecting steady refinery feedstock.
• Hydrogen Spot Price stayed rangebound, while Hydrogen Price Index showed limited volatility and steady production.
• Hydrogen Production Cost Trend remained contained as MoPNG gas price ceilings limited feedstock cost escalation.
• Hydrogen Demand Outlook is subdued, supported by steady refinery and fertilizer consumption, limited industrial growth.
• Hydrogen Price Forecast signals rangebound pricing near levels absent significant feedstock disruptions or policy changes.
• High inventories and refinery output pressured offers, while export interest provided support to Price Index.
• Operational reliability at producers limited upside, while green hydrogen project delays tempered longer-term optimism.
Why did the price of Hydrogen change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Balanced refinery throughput and steady domestic feedstock availability kept upward pressure on hydrogen prices minimal.
• MoPNG gas price ceilings constrained production cost rises despite LNG import volatility and rupee-driven effects.
• High inventories, subdued industrial procurement, delays to green hydrogen projects suppressed buying and price upside.
North America
• In the US, hydrogen production remained steady with strong output from refineries and electrolyzer projects.
• Hydrogen Demand Outlook is moderate, supported by petrochemical use and industrial hydrogen adoption.
• Hydrogen Production Cost Trend remained contained due to regulated gas supply and efficient operational processes.
• Infrastructure expansion continued cautiously, with new pipelines and storage projects progressing slowly.
• Operational reliability at producers limited disruptions, while delays in green hydrogen projects constrained new capacity deployment.
• Supply-demand balance was maintained through stable refinery output and strategic reserves.
Why did hydrogen activity change in September 2025 in the USA?
• Stable gas supply and refinery throughput maintained steady production levels.
• Operational reliability at producers kept output consistent.
• Delays in new projects and moderate industrial uptake tempered growth in hydrogen activity.
Europe
• In Germany, hydrogen production remained stable due to consistent renewable energy supply and natural gas availability.
• Hydrogen demand was steady, supported by industrial and mobility applications, while large-scale projects advanced cautiously.
• Hydrogen Production Cost Trend remained contained due to regulated electricity tariffs and pipeline access agreements.
• Hydrogen Demand Outlook is moderate, with steady consumption in refineries and chemical plants offsetting slower uptake in transport.
• Operational reliability at major producers was strong, while delays in new electrolyzer deployments tempered growth expectations.
• Storage capacity and high inventories balanced market pressures, while cross-border hydrogen trade supported supply stability.
Why did hydrogen activity change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Consistent renewable and natural gas availability supported stable production.
• Operational reliability at major producers maintained output despite project delays.
• Steady industrial consumption and cross-border trade moderated fluctuations in activity.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America (USA)
• The Hydrogen Price Index in the USA stayed range-bound through Q2 2025, tracking Henry Hub natural gas, which averaged USD 3.696/MMBtu Ex Louisiana, down 7% from Q1 as mild spring weather and weak industrial demand weighed on prices.
• The Hydrogen Spot Price dipped in April–May alongside softer gas demand, before recovering in June as persistent heatwaves boosted cooling loads and LNG feedgas volumes, tightening supply.
• Why did the Hydrogen price rise entering July 2025?
• Hot weather across the South and Midwest, along with higher LNG exports and lower Canadian imports, lifted gas-linked hydrogen costs despite steady refinery consumption.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 points to moderate upside, driven by strong power-sector gas demand, rising LNG exports, and firm SMR-based production economics.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook remains steady, led by refinery desulfurization and fertilizers, while steel and industrial use stay at baseline amid mixed U.S. manufacturing activity.
Europe (Germany)
• The Hydrogen Price Index in Europe mirrored gas trends, as TTF-linked natural gas averaged EUR 36,964/1,000 MWh FD Hamburg in Q2 2025, a 19% drop from Q1 due to mild weather and low LNG terminal utilization before rebounding in June.
• The Hydrogen Spot Price stayed soft through April–May, with lower heating loads, reduced LNG inflows, and weak energy-intensive industries suppressing costs before late-quarter cooling demand lifted gas markets.
• Why did Hydrogen prices enter firm in July 2025?
• Hot weather, rising power-sector gas demand, and tighter LNG availability boosted feedstock-linked hydrogen costs, aided by backloaded storage activity and geopolitical risks.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 suggests gradual firming, contingent on heat-driven gas demand, EU storage injections, and LNG tightness despite ongoing maintenance at Norway’s Troll field.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook is balanced, with refining and ammonia sectors providing core stability, while chemical and metals-linked hydrogen use remains subdued.
Asia-Pacific (India)
• The Hydrogen Price Index in India averaged USD 337/140 m³ Ex Dahej in Q2 2025, a 0.6% quarterly gain supported by fertilizer and refinery demand despite weak POL exports (down 12.4% YoY).
• The Hydrogen Spot Price held steady as MoPNG maintained the ceiling for domestically produced natural gas at USD 6.75/MMBtu (GCV basis) for ONGC/OIL fields, keeping SMR production costs elevated even as refinery throughput softened.
• Why did the price hold entering July 2025?
• Consistent ammonia synthesis demand, refinery desulfurization needs, and strategic stockpiling amid Indo Pak tensions offset subdued petrochemical activity.
• The Hydrogen Price Forecast for Q3 indicates stable-to-firm levels near INR 29,400–29,600/140 m³, depending on LNG rates, fertilizer blending activity, and refinery utilization.
• The Hydrogen Demand Outlook remains anchored by refining and fertilizers, with green hydrogen still in early development and minimal influence on conventional hydrogen pricing.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
During Q1 2025 and into mid-April, North America's hydrogen market faced downward cost pressure, largely influenced by softening natural gas prices—critical to steam methane reforming (SMR) production. U.S. natural gas prices trended lower overall despite intermittent weather-driven volatility. Mild January temperatures suppressed heating demand, prompting early price drops, while short-lived cold snaps caused temporary rebounds. February brought a modest uptick due to increased residential usage and minor freeze-offs, but warmer conditions by month-end tempered momentum. March added further volatility, with early support from LNG export activity and cool forecasts, yet rising production and storage surpluses reversed gains.
For hydrogen producers reliant on natural gas feedstock, especially SMR-based facilities, the continued weakness in gas prices helped ease production costs. However, these cost savings were not fully matched by demand growth. End-user sectors such as refining and ammonia showed stable offtake, but industrial hydrogen applications remained limited by project delays and economic caution.
Overall, the North American hydrogen market remained well-supplied, with price trends shaped by abundant feedstock, tepid demand expansion, and evolving clean hydrogen policy developments. Without a strong rebound in natural gas or a step-change in demand, hydrogen prices are likely to remain rangebound in the near term.
APAC
Hydrogen prices in India averaged INR 28,700/MT Ex-Mumbai in Q1 2025, marking a 2.5% increase over Q4 2024’s average 15.4% rise year-on-year from Q1 2024. Prices climbed consistently from January to March, supported by elevated natural gas costs and seasonal demand from refineries and fertilizer producers. Production remained stable across SMR-based hydrogen plants, with consistent ammonia supply and refinery operations maintaining output. Government-set domestic gas pricing in March added upward cost pressure, reinforcing bullish market sentiment. Despite global disruptions in ammonia supply, India’s reliance on domestic sourcing mitigated major supply risks. Demand improved notably from refineries and fertilizer sectors. Crude throughput hit 21.6 MMT in February, while urea and ammonia-based fertilizer production increased ahead of the spring sowing season. However, industrial consumption outside these sectors remained modest, and green hydrogen uptake is still in its early stages. With upstream gas input costs rising and industrial hydrogen use firming regionally, especially in western India, Q1 closed on a cautiously optimistic note, hinting at continued price support into Q2.
Europe
During Q1 2025, the European hydrogen market experienced cost-side volatility tied to fluctuating natural gas prices—particularly relevant for SMR-based hydrogen production. In January, gas prices surged sharply amid colder weather and reduced Russian pipeline flows through Ukraine, raising concerns over winter storage drawdowns. However, the rally was short-lived, as milder conditions and stable LNG inflows eased supply fears by mid-month.
February brought renewed uncertainty. Prices dipped temporarily with increased LNG arrivals and easing geopolitical tensions but remained volatile due to tight inventories and ambiguity around EU storage obligations. By March, gas prices declined by over 13%, supported by mild weather and stronger LNG availability, offering some relief to hydrogen producers. Nonetheless, the market remained sensitive to storage levels and global LNG competition.
For hydrogen suppliers, these shifting gas dynamics translated to variable production costs. While lower gas prices in March improved margins, the broader market struggled with underwhelming demand from refining, mobility, and industrial sectors. Unless significant policy-driven demand acceleration materializes, European hydrogen pricing is likely to remain stable but vulnerable to feedstock and geopolitical fluctuations.
