For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American region witnessed a significant uptrend in Hexene prices QoQ, particularly in the USA, where the market experienced the most pronounced price fluctuations. The quarter was characterized by a multitude of factors influencing market dynamics. Supply constraints due to plant shutdowns, such as Chevron Phillips Olefins Unit closure, led to a reduction in Hexene availability, driving prices upwards. Strong overseas demand, notably from China, further contributed to the price surge as Chinese LLDPE and HDPE downstream sectors showed robust growth. Additionally, resilient domestic production in the USA played a role in maintaining price momentum.
Compared to the same quarter last year, Hexene prices ended 23% lower this year, reflecting a deflationary trend. The quarter-on-quarter comparison within 2024 revealed a 4% price hike, indicating a steady upward trajectory. The quarter concluded with Hexene FOB Texas in the USA priced at USD 1850/MT, marking a substantial appreciation.
Overall, the pricing environment for Hexene in Q3 2024 in North America, particularly the USA, can be described as significantly positive, driven by a combination of supply constraints, strong demand, and consistent production levels.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region experienced a notable decrease in Hexene prices, influenced by several key factors. Market conditions were primarily affected by oversupply, subdued demand, and lower trading activities. The decrease in prices was particularly pronounced in China, where the market saw significant fluctuations. The quarter recorded the ending price being 1.6% higher from the same period last year and a 4% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. Notably, the prices peaked in August and thereafter indicate a downward trend in pricing. The latest quarter-ending price for Hexene CFR Nanjing in China was USD 1810/MT, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment. Seasonality and correlation in price changes played a significant role in shaping the market dynamics, with demand remaining subdued and supply levels outstripping consumption. Downstream LLDPE and HDPE plants in APAC saw multiple outages driven partially due to mechanical failures and partially due to higher stocks. The pricing environment in the region has been largely negative, driven by a combination of global economic factors and regional market conditions.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Hexene pricing landscape in Europe with a mixed sentiment, influenced by various factors. The market saw stability due to ample supply, moderate demand, and consistent feedstock prices. Hexene prices in Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes, reflected the overall market trends. The quarter ended with prices 24% lower from the same period last year, indicating deflationary pressure. Moreover, a 2% decline from the previous quarter ending price in 2024 demonstrated a slight decline in pricing dynamics. Throughout the quarter, prices remained consistent, with no significant fluctuations between the first and second halves. This stability was evident in the quarter-ending price of USD 2250/MT for Hexene CFR Hamburg in Germany. The quarter can also be characterized by mixed sentiment with prices peaking at USD 2320/MT CFR Hamburg basis in August’s assessment driven by high freight charges especially from Korean supply. The pricing environment for Hexene in Europe during Q3 2024 was characterized by stable sentiment, with market conditions supporting a balanced and predictable pricing structure.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Hexene pricing landscape in the MEA region witnessed a mixed trend. The market dynamics were influenced by robust demand from various sectors, including the petrochemical industry, coupled with tight supply conditions. This surge in demand was further accentuated by the stabilization of feedstock prices, particularly ethylene, which bolstered the overall pricing environment for Hexene. Additionally, the region experienced heightened trading activities and improved economic conditions, leading to a positive pricing sentiment. Within Saudi Arabia, the price fluctuations were most pronounced, with significant changes observed throughout the quarter. Despite a 27% decline in the ending prices for the quarter compared to the previous year, the quarter saw a notable recovery with a +1% change since the beginning of the quarter. Moreover, the second half of the quarter witnessed a 2% decline in prices, indicating a mixed trend. The quarter culminated with the latest price of USD 1690/MT for Hexene-1 FOB Al-Jubail in Saudi Arabia, reflecting a mixed trajectory. Overall, the pricing environment in Saudi Arabia exhibited a positive shift, aligning with the broader trend of increasing prices in the MEA region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the Hexene market in North America demonstrated a notable upward pricing trajectory, with several critical factors driving this increase. The quarter was marked by heightened feedstock costs, particularly ethylene and ethane, which exerted substantial pressure on Hexene prices. This was compounded by supply constraints, as key production facilities experienced shutdowns, reducing overall availability. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and the anticipation of hurricane season further tightened the supply chain, exacerbating cost pressures. The market also saw significant forward purchasing and inventory build-up by downstream industries, such as HDPE and LLDPE producers, in response to high crude and natural gas prices.
Focusing on the USA, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend for Hexene prices was bullish. Seasonal factors, such as the Memorial Day demand surge, combined with strategic stockpiling, drove prices upward. Despite a -25% decline compared to the same quarter last year due to previous market depressions, the current quarter saw a 12% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. This reflects a robust recovery and optimistic market sentiment. The price shift between the first and second half of the quarter was notable at 7%, underscoring the impact of mid-quarter supply disruptions and heightened demand.
As the quarter concluded, Hexene prices in the USA reached USD 1800/MT FOB Louisiana, a clear indicator of the market's upward momentum. The pricing environment has been predominantly positive, driven by strong demand, constrained supply, and escalating feedstock costs, all contributing to an increasingly bullish market sentiment.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Hexene market in the APAC region experienced a notable decline, influenced by multiple factors that significantly impacted market prices. This quarter has seen a considerable decrease in Hexene prices, primarily driven by an oversupply of key feedstocks such as ethylene and naphtha. The abundant supply has put downward pressure on prices, exacerbated by reduced inventory levels as producers aim to cut costs. Additionally, the global economic environment has contributed to declining prices, with inflationary pressures and fluctuating crude oil prices playing crucial roles. A slowdown in downstream demand from sectors such as consumer and industrial electronics, as well as construction, has further dampened market sentiment. Focusing on South Korea, the country has witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. Overall trends indicate a persistent decrease, aligned with seasonal variations and a correlation with broader economic indicators. The Hexene market in South Korea has seen a -12% change compared to the same quarter last year, and a -6% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. There is also a -4% price difference between the first and second halves of the quarter, reflecting a continuous downward trajectory. The latest quarter-ending price for Hexene FOB Busan is assessed at USD 2030/MT. The pricing environment has been predominantly negative throughout the quarter, influenced by the oversupply and weakened demand, leading to a consistent decrease in Hexene prices. This negative sentiment is reflected in the substantial percentage changes, underscoring the challenging market conditions for producers and suppliers in the APAC region.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the Hexene market in Europe experienced a marked downturn, primarily driven by a confluence of supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand patterns. The persistent high freight charges, compounded by port congestions and geopolitical tensions, notably internal supply chain disruption due to flooding in Rhine valley region led to decline in consumption of Hexene and other intermediate, leading to an overall bearish sentiment. Shipping constraints and elevated transportation costs from Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers further exacerbated this scenario. Additionally, the European market faced internal pressures from weak downstream demand, particularly in sectors such as construction and consumer electronics, which traditionally bolster Hexene consumption. In Germany, the Hexene pricing scenario reflected these broader regional trends but manifested more acutely. The country's market saw significant price declines, influenced heavily by seasonal fluctuations and demand dynamics. The summer season typically sees a construction boom, but flooding and adverse weather conditions in key areas like the Rhine Valley disrupted this trend, leading to decreased demand and operational challenges for downstream LLDPE and HDPE producers. The resulting oversupply in the market led to an overall negative pricing environment. Compared to the same quarter last year, Hexene prices plummeted by 22%, indicating a substantial year-over-year decline. This trend persisted from the previous quarter of 2024, with a 6% decrease in prices, underscoring the ongoing market weakness. The first half of Q2 witnessed a 5% price drop compared to the second half, further highlighting the consistent downward pressure. The quarter-ending price for Hexene CFR Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 2300/MT, a stark indicator of the negative pricing trend. Overall, the Hexene market in Q2 2024 was characterized by a predominantly negative pricing environment, driven by extensive supply-side constraints and weak downstream demand.
MEA
In Q2 2024, Hexene pricing in the MEA Region experienced a decline, driven primarily by an oversupply situation and geopolitical tensions impacting logistical routes. The quarter was characterized by bearish market sentiment, with higher production levels outstripping demand. Key factors contributing to this price erosion included a deflation in upstream ethylene prices due to a glut in production and a marked increase in freight charges that added cost pressures. Additionally, the market's cautious trading activities and the ongoing geopolitical instability in the Persian Gulf further exacerbated the situation, leading to hesitancy among shipping companies and a consequential rise in lead times for deliveries. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, which witnessed the most significant price adjustments, the overall trend for Hexene prices was decidedly negative. The seasonality factor played a crucial role, with the impending Hajj pilgrimage expected to ease production hours, thereby reducing inventory levels. This period also saw a correlation with higher costs of crude and gas in the preceding months, maintaining elevated feedstock prices. Compared to the same quarter last year, Hexene prices have plummeted by a staggering 32%, and compared to the previous quarter in 2024, there was a 4% reduction. The first half of Q2 exhibited a 5% price drop when juxtaposed with the latter half, indicative of a continuous downward trajectory. The quarter concluded with the price of Hexene-1 FOB Al-Jubail in Saudi Arabia settling at USD 1670/MT. This consistent decrease underscores a predominantly negative pricing environment, reflecting the complex interplay of supply overhang, logistical issues, and seasonal production adjustments, all contributing to the downward trend in Hexene prices in the MEA Region.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Hexene market in the North America region, with prices experiencing a significant decrease. Several factors have influenced market prices during this period. Firstly, there has been a decline in demand for Hexene, particularly in the polyethylene sector, due to oversupply and reduced consumption in industries such as construction, automotive, and electronics manufacturing. Additionally, the market has been impacted by supply tightening, with suppliers reducing their stockpiles to meet lower demand.
In the USA, which has seen the most significant price changes, Hexene prices have decreased by 36% compared to the previous quarter. This decline is consistent with the overall trend in the market, as prices have been decreasing throughout the quarter. The percentage change from the same quarter last year is even more significant, standing at -37%, indicating a substantial drop in prices over the past year. Looking at the price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, there has been a 3% decrease, further highlighting the downward trend in Hexene prices. The latest quarter-ending price for Hexene FOB Louisiana in the USA is USD 1520/MT, reflecting the negative pricing environment.
Overall, the Hexene market in the North America region, and specifically in the USA, has experienced a significant decrease in prices during the first quarter of 2024. The market has been negatively impacted by lower demand, oversupply, and supply tightening, leading to a downward price trend.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Hexene market in Europe, with prices experiencing a significant decrease. Several factors have influenced the market prices, including strong stockpiling and limited supply. The Red Sea traffic disruptions and the observance of Ramadan in the Middle East have contributed to the supply constraints. Additionally, the European demand for Hexene has been strong, particularly in industries such as automotive and electronics. However, overall demand has remained subpar in the Asian market.
In Germany, the price changes have been more pronounced. Hexene prices have decreased by 14% compared to the previous quarter and by 4% compared to the same quarter last year. The country has been facing supply challenges due to shipping container shortages and rail strikes. The construction and automotive sectors, which are major consumers of Hexene-derived products, have been affected by high interest rates and reduced subsidies for energy-efficient transitions. Despite these challenges, the quarter-ending price of Hexene CFR Hamburg in Germany was recorded at USD 2500/MT.
Overall, the pricing environment for Hexene in Europe during the first quarter of 2024 has been negative, with prices experiencing a significant decrease. The market has been affected by supply constraints, weak demand in certain sectors, and external factors such as shipping disruptions and global inflation concerns.
Asia Pacific
Hexene prices in the APAC region witnessed a downward trend in Q1 2024. Several factors contributed to the decrease in market prices. Export demand from Europe and Asia decreased, leading to lower prices. Additionally, there was an increase in the supply of ethylene and naphtha, key feedstocks for Hexene production. Challenges such as limited tanker availability and container shortages at Chinese ports also impacted pricing.
South Korea, in particular, experienced significant price changes during this period. The market saw a decrease of 2% compared to the same quarter last year and a decline of 5% from the previous quarter in 2024. There was a slight increase of 2% in prices between the first and second half of the quarter.
Overall, the pricing environment for Hexene in Q1 2024 was negative, with prices decreasing throughout the quarter. The latest price recorded at the end of the quarter was USD 2220/MT of Hexene FOB Busan in South Korea. The decrease in prices can be attributed to various factors, including decreased export demand, increased supply, and logistical challenges. The market sentiment remained bearish, with limited procurement activities and subdued demand.
Middle East and Africa
Hexene prices in the MEA region experienced a downward trend in Q1 2024. This decrease can be attributed to various factors that influenced market prices. In Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the region, prices saw significant changes. Overall, the trend in prices was negative, reflecting a decrease of 19% compared to the same quarter last year. In comparison to the previous quarter in 2024, prices declined by 16%.
Several factors contributed to this decline in prices. One significant factor was the seasonal slowdown in demand, particularly in Europe and Asia, where festivities dampened procurement activities. Additionally, the shipping industry faced challenges, with shipping companies avoiding the Red Sea due to conflicts, leading to longer shipping routes and increased costs. This situation impacted on the CIF prices and further discouraged buyers. A jump in secured contracts over volatile spot markets was observed, forcing suppliers to secure future supply from Middle East. The price changes within the quarter also showed a clear trend. Prices in the first half of the quarter were higher than in the second half, indicating a decrease in market sentiment. The overall sentiment in the pricing environment was negative, with prices experiencing a stable to decreasing trend.
By the end of the quarter, the price of Hexene-1 FOB Al-Jubail in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 1890/MT. This price reflects the overall decreasing sentiment in the market and the challenges faced by the industry during this period.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Prices of hexene showed a bearish sentiment in Q4 FY2023. Feedstock ethylene and energy prices followed bearish sentiment in the given timeframe amidst strong US crude and gas production. Supply of hexene largely remained domestic with oversupply sentiments. Ethylene markets remained bearish largely due to oversupply and negative feedstock pressures.
Demand from downstream Polyethylene grades remained muted due to weak consumption triggered by rising interest rates by US Federal reserve leading to high inventory stocks across the value chain of PE products. Retail consumption continued to show resilience despite high interest rates while October mortgage rates further slowed down demand. Winter situation arrived late in December with requirements for hexene/ethylene copolymer built heating systems remaining on the lower end. As inflation soared again in December, major suppliers have been reducing their inventory stocks further as US Federal Reserve signaled late rate.
Construction market is showing gradual signs of recovery in USA with mortgage rates falling and consumers showing willingness for newer houses. By the end of December, demand for hexene slowed down further amidst rising uncertainty as Suez Crisis deepened forcing downstream polyethylene producers to reduce operating volumes as supply tightened coupled with slowing of demand as interest rates and fear of inflation dominated the market players tactical buying strategies.
Europe
Prices of hexene showed a bearish sentiment in Q4 FY2023. Feedstock pressures continued to remain negative largely due to US and Chinese overproduction keeping up the supply of hexene. INEOS and LyondellBasell oligomers continue to run at lower operating capacities as downstream demand for hexene/ethylene copolymer slowed down largely on the back of lower automobile and construction demand in the given timeframe. In the given quarter, feedstock ethylene began their bearish trend by falling down by 8% in the given timeframe since the beginning of the quarter. Supply of Ethylene was largely domestic with substantial imports from US and Middle East to stabilize the pricing. Till December, the market players observed weaker demand due to high inventories of hexene/ethylene copolymer due to lower heating demand. HCOB Germany construction PMI index continues to show contraction in the entire quarter. Similar contractions occurred in Italy, Belgium, Netherlands in construction sector. hexene demand from energy efficient and renewable renovations fell drastically amidst as major Eurozone countries reduced subsidies for transitioning into energy efficient construction sector. Furthermore, Natural gas volumes in Europe remained on the higher end to satisfy the quarter demand forcing destocking of Natural gas by Europe pulling down feedstock prices. Major crackers across Europe underwent downturn maintenance in the given week which balanced falling demand significantly pulling down the market prices. In December, supply chain started tightening globally due to Suez Canal crisis and lower navigability of riverine logistics further slowing down Europe’s capacities for Q4FY24. Consumer demand remained lower on a Q-o-Q basis. With European nations reducing subsidies for transition comes to an end on January 1 FY24, elevated temperatures for the winter season till December, demand for hexene is anticipated to remain subdued till the first half of FY24.
Asia Pacific
Prices of hexene turned bearish sentiment in Q4 FY2023. Prices declined by 8% from the beginning of quarter till 29th December 2023. Feedstock ethylene prices showed mixed sentiment with prices remaining stable in the months of October and November with prices declining in the month of December. Chinese demand for downstream polyethylene viz-a-viz hexene/ethylene copolymers remained on the lower end on the back of lower demand sentiment as construction demand, lower demand for conventional passenger vehicles due to higher fuel prices in APAC region kept demand for hexene low. Chinese continued to expand hexene volumes with PetroChina’s plant 500,000 tons/year into the global output of hexene. South Korean, Japan’s domestic market continued for hexene largely driven by automotive demand which remained subdued due to lower global exports. APAC North America trade for hexene showed marginal improvements largely driven by improvement in US markets due to improved sales of automobiles as fuels prices deflated significantly in North America. APAC regions continue to show improvement in the volumes. In the South Korean markets, domestic demand for hexene remained low largely due to subdued construction and lower automobile demand as interest rates remained on the higher end. Export orders of hexene derived goods to European markets remained on the lower end due to seasonal slump with the quarter ending with supply disruptions and further falling export demand due to high CIF charges.
Middle East Asia
The Q4 2023 for Hexene has witnessed a bearish trend due to oversupply and weak demand sentiments in the global market, leading to a decrement in prices by 3.8%. The supply side remained moderate, and no plant shutdowns were reported during this quarter. Saudi Arabia has shown the most significant changes in prices, with a decline of 4% in the first week of November 2023. The trend of Hexene prices in Saudi Arabia is bearish, with low to moderate supply levels, and the latest price is USD 1666/MT FOB Al-Jubail. The main reasons for the decline in prices were oversupply, weak economic recovery of China, deglobalization in Europe and Americas, steady inflationary pressure, and lower festive demand sentiments in India. The Israel Hamas conflict has also provided headwinds, leading to weaker demand sentiments for 1-hexene. The demand situation for Hexene is expected to remain muted as companies hold for Q4 estimates, and the feedstock market is anticipated to turn bullish as restocking operations are anticipated with major corporations declaring major results. In conclusion, the Hexene market has been bearish in Q4 2023 due to oversupply and weak demand sentiments, with Saudi Arabia showing the most significant price changes.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
Prices of hexene showed a mixed sentiment in Q3 2023. Prices fell in the month of July followed by a quick bullish trend in August and again moderating in September. Feedstock ethylene and energy prices followed bullish sentiment in the given quarter causing uncertainty in cash flows and operating margins. Supply of hexene largely remained domestic. Natural gas supply largely remained import oriented from Canada with substantial domestic production. Demand from downstream Polyethylene grades remained muted due to weak consumption triggered by rising interest rates by US Federal reserve leading to high inventory stocks across the value chain of PE products. Retail consumption showed marginal improvement in August as inflation fell to 3.2% with bullish sentiments anticipated leading to rising demand for major petrochemicals like hexene and ethylene by the downstream industries. As inflation soared again in September, major suppliers of hexene began destocking significant amount of their inventories, pulling down the gains observed in August. Major end use consumer like construction sector gradually showed bearish trend due to high real estate inventories caused by rising mortgage rates. Market continues to stay bearish due to oversupply and muted growth expectation predicted by IMF. Exports continue to decline on a YoY and MoM basis across the regions as freight charges continue to fall in the given timeframe.
Asia Pacific
Prices of hexene showed a mixed sentiment in Q3 2023. Prices continued their bearish trend in July followed by a strong bullish trend in the months of August and September 2023. Feedstock ethylene and energy prices soared globally due to OPEC+ production cut and rising coal prices due to reduced production. Prices continued their bearish trend in July as demand remained weak due to seasonal effects, deflating material prices. As Chinese government introduced significant stimulus, demand from automotive, construction started showing gradual improvement for hexene derived plastics. South Korea, major exporter of hexene, observed bullish sentiment in domestic market. Vendor inquiries revealed significant purchases made by Chinese suppliers began by July’s last week. Hexene prices continue to soar in Asia despite USA’s oversupply as prices of feedstock continued to provide positive cost push despite weak global demand. Plastics demand began their bearish trend in September across Asia Pacific due to high inventories, an inquiry revealed. Chinese procurement continued to provide stable demand for hexene and ethylene in Asia Pacific. Rising coal prices started their deflation in the month of September and is expected to provide negative pull in prices of hexene in the coming quarter. Overall demand in Asia pacific remained relatively higher than Europe and Americas but debilitated and is expected to push down the prices as imported inflation is beginning to affect major commodity and general prices in Korea, India etc.
Europe
Prices of hexene showed a mixed sentiment in Q3 2023. Prices continued their bearish trend till August and began their bullish trend in September. Natural gas prices showed a stable trend in the previous quarter now observed a bullish trend again Q3. Prices of feedstock ethylene dropped below USA’s trading prices in the previous quarter as demand remained suppressed while inventories continue to remain adequate. In the given quarter, feedstock ethylene began their bullish trend by rising over 25% QoQ basis on the back of increasing gas and crude oil prices. Supply of Ethylene was largely domestic with substantial imports from US and Middle East to stabilize the pricing. Demand for hexene remained suppressed due to weak consumption especially from the major end use consumer like construction sector. HCOB Germany construction PMI index continues to show contraction in the entire quarter. Similar contractions occurred in Italy, Belgium, Netherlands in construction sector. Hexene derived plastics largely received sufficient orders from automobile, renewables industries due to EU’s stimuli towards transition. Market participant revealed that realized sales and volumes are expected to drop in the given quarter primarily due to weak demand, oversupply from US and Asia and inflated energy cost triggered by aggressive procurement of gas undertaken by Europe for heating fuel. Prices began their bullish trend in September, as US reduced LNG supplies, and are expected to be in bullish trend in the coming quarter. Inflation management in Europe is creating a discrepancy with countries like Netherlands forced with a high key interest rate mandate despite lower inflation than Germany again discouraging consumption of hexene derived PE goods.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
After riding the price-rise stairs in the 1st quarter, the market of Hexene saw a downfall again in the month of April of the year 2023 in the US domestic region owing to depressed demand from the downstream polyethylene(PE) industries. The manufacturing PMI had dropped to a six-month low of 46.3 in June 2023, which pointed out the contraction in the manufacturing industry, and led to the second successive monthly decline in the slope of the 1-Hexene price curve. The drop in production rates due to muted activity of the upstream ethylene market and the reluctance of downstream enterprises to place new orders are the probable reason estimated by the analysis team of ChemAnalyst. In May, the Hexene price curve had seen a 'downward slopping' since exports as a percentage of total sales had faced a contraction. In the month of June, walking through a flat path, the price of Hexene settled at USD 1370/tonne. As China's economy is still in the recovery phase, backed by the European recession, the global olefin market saw a slowdown in the month of June this year. Due to rate hikes, market sentiments had deteriorated further, leading to sluggish downstream demand in the plastic and polymer sector both in domestic and international markets.
APAC
The market prices of Hexene had declined in the Chinese domestic market compared to the price closed in March this year, valued at USD 1215/tonne. This is due to the fact of suppressed demand from the downstream polymer and solvents industries. The manufacturing sector had seen a contraction indicated by the PMI number 49.5 in April due to a slowdown in factory activity since January amid an ongoing property decent and global recession. As per the market participants, in this time frame, no major supply chain constraints or port congestion had been registered in the region. In May, the market sentiment for 1-Hexene had improved because the downstream demand of polymer and solvents manufacturing industries was rising. However, there had been a slowdown in the imports of Hexene due to supply storage in the major exporting nation South Korea amid which the prices inclined upwards. In June, due to the weakening support from domestic demand of the downstream polyethylene (PE) market again, there was a drop in Hexene prices in China. Moreover, feedstock naphtha prices were plummeting in Asia, nearing a two-and-a-half-year low, which had weakened the support for the Hexene market.
Europe
The market price of Hexene had seen a surge in the German domestic market because the demand got strengthened for downstream polymer and solvent industries. Due to the European market's humming activity, the polyethylene market has also seen an upswing. The market prices of Hexene had soared to a value of USD 1300/tonne in April due to increased competition amongst the market players in the domestic market and overseas regions. In May, the market situation was quite bullish owing to looming inflationary pressure. In addition, the debt-selling talk in the USA had a negative impact on the German economy, which weakened the trade relationship between the two. In June, the market of Hexene was on a bumpy ride. The prices of Hexene remained unchanged at around USD 2940/tonne as the GDP had declined over the past two quarters, causing the European territory to enter the recession zone. Moreover, the support from the downstream polyethylene (PE) market weakened due to depressing demand. In June 2023, the estimated PMI number had not met its target and remained at 40.6, which indicated the fastest market collapse since the COVID-19 pandemic. In June 2023, the rise in inflation by 4.9%, the oversupply in Asia's polyolefins market, coupled with a significant weakening in demand, had given rise to bearish market sentiment for the product.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The market prices of Hexene showcased a bearish trend throughout the first quarter of 2023 in the US domestic market. Amid hindrances and off-seasonal trends in the downstream polymer and solvents industries, the prices dropped in January 2023. The market competition was limited as weaker participation from overseas players, especially from the Asian region, was registered in this quarter. In the second month of Q1 2023, the prices of Hexene increased owing to higher demand from the downstream polymer and solvents industries. Also, the demand for the derivative segment polyethylene surged in the region. In the last month, the prices increased slightly amid an improvement in the demand outlook from the domestic and overseas markets. Thus, the market prices of Hexene FOB Louisiana settled at USD 2441 per tonne at the end of Q1 2023.
APAC
In the first quarter of 2023, the Hexene market in the Chinese domestic region experienced mixed sentiments. In the first month of Q1, the market prices of Hexene saw a surge in demand from the downstream industries and increased pressure on logistics, causing a shortage of the product in the market due to the rebound in market activities after the Lunar New Year. In the second month, the market dynamics stabilized, and the rebound of economic and commercial activities and an increase in demand from the downstream polymer and solvents industries led to balanced supply and demand dynamics. In March 2023, the market prices increased further, owing to a rise in market competitiveness amongst the market giants, and the overall fundamentals of Hexene improved further. Thus, the market prices of Hexene CFR Nanjing settled at USD 1900 per tonne at the end of Q1 2023.
Europe
The Hexene market in Europe showcased mixed sentiments throughout the first quarter of 2023. In January, the dropped due to a lack of market competitiveness coupled with the surge in inquiries for finished downstream product Polyethylene. Additionally, the cost support from the feedstock Ethylene dropped considerably in the regional market. In February, the prices declined in the first half of the month, and then in the second half, the market sentiments for Hexene improved. The demand for the commodity rose amid increased market activities and active procurement from end-use consumers. In March, the prices upsurged, backed by increased demand from the downstream polymer and solvents industries. The demand outlook improved substantially as the operations at the downstream facilities soared and increased downstream inquiries were reported. Thus, the prices of Hexene CFR Germany settled at USD 2199 per tonne at the end of Q1 2023.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Overall, the Hexene market in the North American region has observed a consistent bearish outlook throughout the fourth quarter of 2022. The Hexene market has been consistently influenced by the reduced cost support from the feedstock, and the weakening values of the Crude have a significant impact across the values chain. In addition, the demand from the downstream has remained inadequate to uplift manufacturers' sentiments to increase the offers for Hexene in the domestic market. However, the offers in the first half of the quarter have offered quoted for Hexene have remained fluctuating within a rangebound depending on the demand outlook from the overseas market. However, in the latter half, the discussion for inquiries from the PE industries has further plunged, weakening the enthusiasm amongst the market players despite the embargo of the EU over Russian energy supplies. As a ripple effect, the FOB Texas discussions for Hexene were assessed at USD 2478 per tonne in December 2022.
Asia Pacific
The Hexene outlook in the Asia Pacific region has remained on a bearish trajectory throughout the fourth quarter of 2022. This setback is majorly attributed to the increased market competition across the region. The consistent imports of Russian Crude Oil at cheaper rates have provided an advantage to the prominent exporting nations over the price competitiveness. At the same time, the far east Asian player has started the destocking drive to complete the sales target and improve the enterprise's financial outlook ahead of the year's end, leading to a wider window for negotiation from the downstream players. In contradiction, the downstream players in the far-east Asian markets have also restricted the cash outflow resulting in a curtailment of overall demand. As a ripple effect, the Asian Hexene players are keen to participate in other regions leading to intense price competitiveness amongst the market players. The FOB Busan discussion for Hexene was assessed at USD 1345 per tonne in December 2022.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Hexene market in the European region has observed a consistent bearish outlook and a considerable drop in offers throughout the period. As per the market experts, the European market currently lacks market competitiveness. The constantly soaring inflation and hiked interest rates have increased the cost of living amongst end-use consumers leading to a strict conservative buying streak. Even though the operating rates at the facilities remained dull and the embargo on the Russian energy supplies has been negated by the participation of the Asian players with high price competitiveness margins. As a ripple effect, the CFR Hamburg discussion for Hexene was assessed at USD 2248 per tonne in December 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter of 2022, the Hexerne market in the North American region witnessed mixed sentiments that varied monthly. As per the market experts, the consistent fluctuation in the values of upstream Crude Oil in the international market coupled with the unstable demand pattern from the downstream solvent industry. At the same time, the slower inquiries for Polyolefins manufacturers have further dampened the will of the producers to ease out the quotations for Hexene in the domestic market. In addition, the queries from the overseas markets, especially from the European region, remained restricted due to the holidays. However, the offers rebounded after the market reopened further, coupled with restocking practices to avoid supply chain hindrance caused by the hurricane season in North America. The FOB Texas discussion for Hexene settled USD 3330 per tonne during the quarter ending September 2022.
Asia Pacific
Overall the sentiment for Hexene in the Asia Pacific region was mixed that varied based on the economic conditions of the countries. The weaker performance of the major economy like China in the Northeast Asian region due to the zero COVID policies, further coupled with the power rationing, has impacted the manufacturing sector. The latest figures released by the Chinese authorities showcased that the manufacturing PMI index has slipped below 50. At the same time, the demand from the downstream polyolefins industry remained buoyed. Therefore the 1-Hexene discussions on CFR Nanjiang basis assessed USD 1690 per tonne during the quarter ending September 2022.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2022, the Hexene market in the European region remained silent, and the discussions on CFR Hamburg were assessed at USD 2650 per tonne during the quarter ending September 2022. The market sentiments remained muted for a considerable duration due to the summer holidays across the Northwest European region. In addition, the demand for polyolefins remains bearish has further dampened the will of the domestic and overseas players regarding the arbitrage for Hexene. Meanwhile, European supply chains remained under pressure throughout the third quarter as port congestions and port labor strikes curtailed normal port operations.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During the second quarter of 2022, Hexene prices in the United States rose during the first half on the back of the soaring cost of production due to strong energy and feedstock prices along with high logistics costs. Olefins prices increased sharply during the initial month of April 2022; however, pricing sentiment shifted the balance towards the second half of the quarter, where downstream Polyethylene demand weakened, which prompted the market participants to ease the demand pressure from upstream, meanwhile feedstock ethylene prices declined after months of the resurgence in May and June 2022. Energy prices remained higher throughout the quarter; however, ample olefin inventories ensured no further price increase in olefins.
APAC
Middle East Asia has been a key region of exports of Hexene to the Asia Pacific region, including all major countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia. After an initial increase in Hexene prices during April, rising feedstock costs and a shortage of inventories lead to a sharp price increase. However, prices stabilized towards the 2nd half of the quarter as prices declined significantly, inventory levels improved, demand from polymers eased, and feedstock olefins costs slumped. China and India import hefty quantities of Hexene from Saudi Arabia, and the market trend in South Asia mirrored the market trend of Saudi Arabia. China continued its battle with Covid leading to demand deterioration, while India maintained stability in volume intakes.
Europe
European countries have also followed a similar trend where demand plunge in polymers during the second half of the quarter prompted the market participants to revise the prices towards the weaker side. While, during the initial stages of the 2nd quarter of 2022, Hexene prices rose substantially as Europe was caught in the crossfire between Russia and Ukraine. Feedstock costs remained unchecked as the inflation rate soared during April and logistic costs climbed as the uncertainty around the Ukrainian crisis left space for price moderation. Hence, 1-Hexene prices increased in the first half in Germany and France by 5%, and later prices stabilized and fell by 4-5%.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Hexene market was firm during the first quarter of 2022 owing to strong cost pressure from crude oil prices and robust demand from downstream Polymers and other industries. Market dynamics were tighter as the global demand for crude oil was outpacing the available supply. In addition, the Ukraine-Russia conflict further exacerbated the demand-supply dynamics of crude oil. Both Brent and WTI prices remained strong in the global market and consequently, inflationary over Hexene compounded while demand for the material rebounded in H2 of Q1 2022. Chevron Phillips has reported normalcy in production with limited to no production disruptions during the quarter. The company has also signified the consistent rise in crude oil may not show any short-term drawbacks however midterm to long term implications could be dire having global ramifications. Demand from polymer segment has increased and, as of March 2022, Hexene prices were assessed at USD 3595 per MT on FOB basis.
Asia Pacific
Middle East region, key producer of Hexene in Asia, has observed strong Q1 2022 where Hexene prices skyrocketed in the backdrop of rising prices of crude oil and its derivatives. Hexene prices were assessed in excess of USD 3300 per MT on FOB basis owing to strong demand sentiment and increased prices of crude oil. SABIC, only producer in the middle east Asia region, has increased prices amid rising demand from downstream plasticizers and growing international consumption. Middle East Asia cater to South Asian demand of Hexene and consequently, India and China have witnessed strong pricing sentiment during the quarter. China also has domestic production and uptrend in the prices has also been observed in the domestic market and prices were assessed at USD 3140 per MT on FOB basis after conclusion of Q1 2022.
Europe
During the first quarter, prices of Hexene remained firm on the back of strong cost pressure and robust demand from downstream Polyolefins. Crude oil prices started the year on a firm note as prices were assessed in USD 80-90/b range however the Russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbated market dynamics and crude oil prices went haywire. Consequently, downstream Naphtha prices broke charts in Q1 pressuring downstream derivatives including Hexene. Imports of LNG become strained as trade in Black Sea region got hampered while relationship between the West and Russia reached its lowest point in decades. Limited availability of LNG increased inflationary pressure and subsequently production cost increased substantially. Hence, after conclusion of Q1 2022, Hexene prices were assessed at USD 3940 per MT on FOB basis.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Skyrocketing prices of crude oil has culminated in substantial rise in overall cost of Hexene causing market participants to increase prices of the material in both domestic as well as international markets. Continuous climb in crude oil price has been speculated to be caused by underutilized capacities around the world and production disruptions in Q3. Strong polymer demand in USA has kept an upward pressure on the demand of Hexene in the market further extrapolating the overall prices of Hexene where November prices were assessed at USD 3415 per MT FOB Texas. However, demand declined towards the end of the quarter and crude values stabilized in H2 which provided necessary reprieve for the downstream buyers as prices declined to USD 3330 per MT FOB Texas.
APAC
In India, Hexene prices observed strong performance in the first half as polymer demand drove hexene consumption forwards and consequently prices rose to INR 101500 per MT on Ex-location basis. However, demand of polymers stagnated towards H2 of Q4 which limited the consumption of Hexene and thereby, prices dropped to INR 98400 per MT on Ex-location basis in December. In Saudi Arabia, Hexene prices remained robust throughout the last quarter showing no signs of retreat due to increase in average feedstock prices and high product demand in the export market. FOB Al-Jubail offers increased to USD 3130 per MT in November. Some players reported decrease production volumes as a result of the periodic maintenance at some of the factories. Higher downstream polyethylene sales volumes, driven by continued strong demand was partially offset by higher utility costs. Logistical hurdles continued to impact traded volumes. However, last weeks of December observed some stagnancy in pricing owing to decline in demand and consequently prices dropped marginally to USD 3108 per MT FOB AL-Jubail.
Europe
Hexene prices continued to rally up throughout the quarter which was driven by firm upstream costs and continued supply tightness in the market. Increased upstream prices have also been influenced by the changing dynamics of freight markets. In November, the prices of Hexene observed a steep increment and settled at USD 2535 per MT CFR Hamburg. Persistent tightness in the market has led to a spike in pricing indications as well in the export markets. Demand has been primarily driven due to higher polyethylene sales volumes across Europe. Imports have been limited as freight charges and shipping costs continue to soar upwards which made Asian exports uncompetitive and unsustainable.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
Asia Pacific
Consistent demand for end products such as C6-LLDPE due to the heavy buying interest for packaging material positively impacted the market fundamentals of Hexene in August. Buyers were heard stockpiling heavy cargoes of Polyethylene over its increased demand from local vendors, thereby leading to a strong consumption of feedstock Hexene in the process. Moreover, Hexene consumption as a fuel additive also experienced a considerable surge on increment in domestic commute activities in the domestic market. Following the appreciable revival in its demand outlook, traders were heard extending their profit margins to make up for the loss incurred in the previous quarter.
Europe
Increased prices of Natural Gas and Crude oil around the world translated into strong pricing for several petrochemicals in the European domestic market. In lieu of that, Hexene pricing in Germany also followed the same pattern. Demand from the downstream polyethylene sector along with curtailed imports from Asia and North America further exaggerated the market dynamics resulting in a continuous rise in pricing. Furthermore, resolutely high shipping and freight charges from Asia continued to play a crucial role in the overall pricing trend of Hexene. Prices of Hexene as of the 2nd week of September were assessed at USD 1890/MT CFR Hamburg. With distorted market dynamics of Hexene across the globe, prices are likely to continue to increase further in Q4.
Middle East & Africa
Prices of 1-Hexene witnessed historic highs in the 3rd quarter due to increased raw material pricing and continued tightness in the market supply. As per the market experts, the prices showed notable gains in the second half of the financial year due to a combined impact of higher upstream Brent crude oil and global supply disruptions. “C6 pricing is relatively high as availability is still restricted from the overseas and crude is showing no signs of retreat. We are currently sending shipments only to Eurasian countries and that too on priority orders,” said a leading manufacturer. FOB Al-Jubail prices touched USD 2904/MT during the week ending 17th September. As per the market players, the global shortage of Hexene also affected the supply of several grades of mLLDPE whose demand is picking up with the economic rebound during the quarter.
